Global Trends 2009 - What is the World Coming to?
Euromonitor International's Global Trends 2009 - What is the World Coming to? Strategy Briefings is a series of reports that alert you to global trends predicted to influence consumer markets. They offer insight to changing market conditions and the opportunities and challenges companies need to consider to maintain a competitive advantage
Chapters: 9 | Tables: 21 | Publication date: Jun 2009
Why buy this report
- Get insight into trends in market performance
- Pinpoint growth sectors and identify factors driving change
- Identify market and brand leaders and understand the competitive environment
Regional coverage
Western Europe; Eastern Europe; North America; Latin America; Asia-Pacific; Oceania; Africa and the Middle East
Table of contents
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
THE ECONOMY
CONSUMER TRENDS
CORPORATE TRENDS
TECHNOLOGY TRENDS
MAJOR MARKETS
FUTURE OUTLOOK
PLANNING FUTURE SCENARIOS
OVERVIEW – HOW DID WE GET THERE?
THE LEAD IN
THE SHOCKS OF LATE 2008
COMPLEX FINANCIAL INSTRUMENTS
RIDING THE ROLLERCOASTER
ECONOMIC TRENDS AND DRIVERS
Chart 1 Global Economic Trends and Drivers 2009
THE FIRST GLOBAL RECESSION?
CAPITALISM IN QUESTION?
CONCEPTS AND CONFIDENCE
Chart 2 Consumer and Government Spending per Household, Major Markets 2008 (US$’000)
TWO SHADES OF MIDDLE CLASS
SAVERS AND SPENDERS
Chart 3 Savings Ratio (% of Disposable Income Saved), Major Markets 2008
LESSONS FROM HISTORY?
1980S JAPANESE BUBBLE
RISK OF ANTI-GLOBALISATION
RECESSION, DEPRESSION, SLUMP? INFLATION, DEFLATION, STAGFLATION?
PANICKING BANKERS?
CONSUMER TRENDS AND DRIVERS
Chart 4 Global Consumer Trends and Drivers 2009
THE MOOD HAS CHANGED
NOW THE GOING IS TOUGH, WILL THE TOUGH KEEP SHOPPING?
CONFIDENCE AND STRATEGIES FOR SURVIVAL
THE QUEST FOR VALUE...
...AND THE DEATH OF BLING?
DESIGNER INVESTMENT
THE LIPSTICK EFFECT
Table 1 Trends in Cosmetics and Toiletries Spending, Major Markets 2004-2008
FRUGALISTAS AND VOUCHERISTAS
MINDFUL SPENDING
PLAYING AT THRIFT?
OR TAKING THRIFT SERIOUSLY?
GREEN THRIFT
EVEN THE RICH ARE CHANGING
BANKING LEVELS VARY
Chart 5 Banked Population as % of Total Population, Major Markets 2008
THE IMPACT OF UNEMPLOYMENT
Table 2 Unemployed Population, Major Markets (2008 Actual, 2009-2013 Forecast)
UNEMPLOYMENT AND THE YOUNG, THE OLD, WOMEN AND THE POOR
Table 3 Unemployment Among the Young (Unemployed as % of Economically Active), Major Markets 2008
HOMEWORKERS AND THE RISE OF THE MULTI-JOB LIFESTYLE
Chart 6 Employment by Type, Major Markets 2008
PROTECTIONISM
Chart 7 Net Migration, Major Markets 2008
FALLING REMITTANCES
Chart 8 Remittance Inflows, Major Markets 2008
URBANISATION IN DEVELOPING MARKETS
WHERE IS HOME?
COCOONING
LONELINESS LOOMS
LIFETIME LEARNING FOR ‘ME PLC’
HOME ARRANGEMENTS CHANGE?
Table 4 Household Size, Major Markets 2008
BEGINNING OF THE END OF THE ‘BURB?
THE APPEAL OF AGE
Table 5 Index of Ageing (Number Aged 65+ Divided by Those 0-14 Years), Major Markets 2004-2008
CORPORATE TRENDS AND DRIVERS
Chart 9 Corporate Trends and Drivers 2009
FROM VALUES TO VALUE
FROM VISIONARY CEO TO MASTERFUL CFO
RISING REGULATION
RISK AVERSION
CUSTOMER INSIGHT NEEDED
MARGINAL REVENUE
LOW INVENTORIES AND DELIVERY PRESSURE POINTS
TIME FOR R&D
NEW MEDIA, NEW MEANS OF COMMUNICATION
CONVERSATION OR COMMUNICATIONS
FOOD AS THE BRIGHT SPOT (SO FAR)
Table 6 Trends in Food Consumption Sales Volumes, Major Markets 2004-2008
H&W – A CORE GROWTH STRATEGY SHARED BY ALL THE ‘BIG GUNS’
RECESSION IS A THREAT - BUT A MANAGEABLE ONE
STRUCTURAL CHANGES
TOUGH TIMES FOR RETAILERS
NOW SEE WHAT CUSTOMER LOYALTY REALLY MEANS
TECHNOLOGY TRENDS AND DRIVERS
Chart 10 Global Technology Trends And Drivers 2009
LEARNING FROM THE DOT COM CRASH
ONLINE ESSENTIALS
THE WORLD IS A’TWITTER WITH EXCITEMENT
RISE OF CONTENT – EXISTENTIALISM TO ESCAPISM
BLURRING SCREENS – RISING ONLINE DOWNTIME
Chart 11 Percentage Leisure Time Spent Online, Major Markets 2008
‘LOOK AT ME’
NETWORKS – SOCIAL, FINANCIAL AND TECHNOLOGICAL – AND NEW JOBS
‘SEXTING’
‘MISS MANNERS’ ONLINE
NANO AND MICRO – CASH, GENERATION, TECHNOLOGY, HEALTH
MOBILITY
MAJOR MARKETS
AUSTRALIA
The economy in 2008/2009
Chart 12 National Snapshot, Australia
Bucking the trend
Chart 13 Spending and Lending, Australia
Back to BYOB
Discovering saving
Summary and short term outlook
Summary 1 Opportunities and Threats, Australia
BRAZIL
The economy in 2008/2009
Chart 14 National Snapshot, Brazil
Chart 15 Spending and Lending, Brazil
Summary and short term outlook
Summary 2 Opportunities and Threats, Brazil
CHINA
The economy in 2008/2009
Chart 16 National Snapshot, China
“The most difficult year”
Online shopping grows
Chart 17 Spending and Lending, China
Property stalling
Summary and short term outlook
Summary 3 Opportunities and Threats, China
FRANCE
The economy in 2008/2009
Chart 18 National Snapshot, France
Chart 19 Spending and Lending, France
Low debt unable to protect
Summary and short term outlook
Summary 4 Opportunities and Threats, France
GERMANY
The economy in 2008/2009
Chart 20 National Snapshot, Germany
Shaken confidence despite financial conservatism
Chart 21 Spending and Lending, Germany
Summary and short term outlook
Summary 5 Opportunities and Threats, Germany
INDIA
The economy in 2008/2009
Chart 22 National Snapshot, India
Growth slows
Resilient shoppers
Chart 23 Spending and Lending, India
Summary and short term outlook
Summary 6 Opportunities and Threats, India
JAPAN
The economy in 2008/2009
Chart 24 National Snapshot, Japan
Encouraging consumer confidence
Chart 25 Spending and Lending, Japan
The challenge of a strong currency
Summary and short term outlook
Summary 7 Opportunities and Threats, Japan
MEXICO
The economy in 2008/2009
Chart 26 National Snapshot, Mexico
Political uncertainty
Chart 27 Spending and Lending, Mexico
Summary and short term outlook
Summary 8 Opportunities and Threats, Mexico
RUSSIA
The economy in 2008/2009
Chart 28 National Snapshot, Russia
Government action
Consumer confidence slow to fall
Global problems
Chart 29 Spending and Lending, Russia
Summary and short term outlook
Summary 9 Opportunities and Threats, Russia
SPAIN
The economy in 2008/2009
Chart 30 National Snapshot, Spain
Economic stimulus – more labour flexibility
Chart 31 Spending and Lending, Spain
Summary and short term outlook
Summary 10 Opportunities and Threats, Spain
UK
The economy in 2008/2009
Chart 32 National Snapshot, UK
Shoppers not savers
Chart 33 Spending and Lending, UK
Summary and short term outlook
Summary 11 Opportunities and Threats, UK
US
The economy in 2008/2009
Chart 34 National Snapshot, US
No job, no healthcare
Baby boomers dream of eternal youth
Chart 35 Spending and Lending, US
Shopping the world with plastic
Summary and short term outlook
Summary 12 Opportunities and Threats, US
FUTURE OUTLOOK
HOW KIND WILL MOTHER NATURE BE?
OCEANS STRUGGLE
NEW WORLD ORDERS?
THE FUTURE’S BRIGHT, THE FUTURE’S .....
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE
Table 7 Forecast % Year-on-Year Differences in Consumer Expenditure
Table 8 Unemployment Rate (%) 2008 Actual 2009-2013 Forecast
Table 9 GDP Growth Rate (%)
PLANNING FUTURE SCENARIOS
REDUCING RISK THROUGH PLANNING – THE GENERAL IDEA
Chart 36 Simple Forecast Scenarios
Chart 37 Issues to Consider in Scenario Planning
SURVIVAL STRATEGIES
HOPING AND COPING
WAITING FOR ‘SPRING’
ANXIOUS ADAPTATION