Retailing in Vietnam
Euromonitor International's Retailing in Vietnam examines whether recent high growth rates can be sustained in an economic downturn. Growth has been boosted by richer consumers spending more and some companies’ decision to sell a wider range of non-food products. Rising sales have supported expansion into new markets, new store formats and moves into private label products. However, the economic downturn has set some of these strategies back, this analysis looks at whether grocery retailers will continue to enjoy similar rates of growth in the future.
Tables: 157 | Publication date: Oct 2009
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Product coverage
Non-store retailing; Store-based retailing
Executive summary
Outlets expand in anticipation of more open retail industry in 2009
During 2008 the retail industry in Vietnam saw very strong expansion in terms of outlets in both grocery and non-grocery channels. Huge investment by local retailers was poured into the market in order to capitalise on available good locations before Vietnam fully opens its retail industry to foreign investors in 2009. Penetration from foreign retailers was also more fierce compared with 2007. International investors such as Wellcome Supermarket, Best Denki and Lotte Mart, among others, all obtained the requisite license. Local retailers prepared for the foreign invasion by providing better service, improving product quality and implementing more marketing activities and cooperation between local brands.
High inflation affects retail industry
2008 saw the retailing industry affected by a sharp rise in inflation – the highest in 10 years. Grocery retailers were more significantly affected by rising food prices. Consumers, stemming from an absence of price controls of large retailers, turned back to traditional retailers for their everyday needs. Awareness among retailers led them to form the Association of Distribution Associate Network. The government had to pay more attention and stabilise the microeconomic situation. However, the effect of inflation and higher prices was expected to be short-term.
Luxury items cause concern of overspending
Vietnamese consumers are becoming increasingly sophisticated. Rising consumer purchasing power stimulated demand for luxury items and brand name goods. However, increasing demand also led to overspending among consumers. Many Vietnamese, especially those in the younger age segments, paid greater attention on their personal appearance and indulging in leisure activities and purchases of products such as fashion items with little concern for the high level of inflation. Consumers believed that an improved economic performance in coming years will allow them to repay debts acquired over the review period.
Amway Vietnam Ltd enters non-store retailing
Non-store retailing remained a niche of the overall retail industry. The main product category remained cosmetics and toiletries. Non-store retailing was not yet strong enough to influence manufacturers or other retail formats. Amway Vietnam Ltd debuted in the country and expected to perform very well over the forecast period. With a wider range of products Amway Vietnam is likely to stimulate the performance of the direct selling channel. Other non-store formats are also expected to gain popularity, such as Internet retailing and vending. However, non-store retailing still needs to educate consumers and increase consumer awareness.
Fiercer penetration forced loser
Although local retailers have prepared for the stronger competition posed by foreign brands, the retailing environment during 2008 resulted in some retailers losing ground. Vietnamese consumers also see the potential of imported brands. Consequently, with the entry of an increasing number of international brands, local retailers will lose ground if they cannot significantly improve their performance. Vietnam’s retailing industry is projected to grow very well over the forecast period, driven by consumers’ rising income levels. However, the competitive environment will be more aggressive, and more small retailers are expected to lose ground.
Table of contents
RETAILING IN VIETNAM : MARKET INSIGHT
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Outlets expand in anticipation of more open retail industry in 2009
High inflation affects retail industry
Luxury items cause concern of overspending
Amway Vietnam Ltd enters non-store retailing
Fiercer penetration forced loser
KEY TRENDS AND DEVELOPMENTS
Uncertain development suffers private sector
High demand for diverse and luxury products, but consumers are overspending
New entrants to non-store retail channel reinforce market
MARKET INDICATORS
Table 1 Employment in Retailing 2003-2008
MARKET DATA
Table 2 Sales in Retailing by Sector: Value 2003-2008
Table 3 Sales in Retailing by Sector: % Value Growth 2003-2008
Table 4 Sales in Retailing by Grocery vs Non-Grocery 2005-2008
Table 5 Sales in Store-Based Retailing by Sector: Value 2003-2008
Table 6 Sales in Store-Based Retailing by Sector: % Value Growth 2003-2008
Table 7 Sales in Non-store Retailing by Sector: Value 2003-2008
Table 8 Sales in Non-store Retailing by Sector: % Value Growth 2003-2008
Table 9 Retailing Company Shares: % Value 2004-2008
Table 10 Grocery Retailers Company Shares: % Value 2004-2008
Table 11 Grocery Retailers Brand Shares: % Value 2005-2008
Table 12 Non-Grocery Retailers Company Shares: % Value 2004-2008
Table 13 Non-Grocery Retailers Brand Shares: % Value 2005-2008
Table 14 Non-store Retailing Company Shares: % Value 2004-2008
Table 15 Non-store Retailing Brand Shares: % Value 2005-2008
Table 16 Forecast Sales in Retailing by Sector: Value 2008-2013
Table 17 Forecast Sales in Retailing by Sector: % Value Growth 2008-2013
Table 18 Forecast Sales in Store-Based Retailing by Sector: Value 2008-2013
Table 19 Forecast Sales in Store-Based Retailing by Sector: % Value Growth 2008-2013
Table 20 Forecast Sales in Non-store Retailing by Sector: Value 2008-2013
Table 21 Forecast Sales in Non-store Retailing by Sector: % Value Growth 2008-2013
APPENDIX
Operating environment
Cash and Carry/Warehouse Clubs
Table 22 Cash and Carry/Warehouse Clubs: Number of Outlets by National Brand Owner: 2005-2008
DEFINITIONS
Summary 1 Research Sources
LOCAL COMPANY PROFILES - VIETNAM
AA CORP - RETAILING - VIETNAM
STRATEGIC DIRECTION
KEY FACTS
Summary 2 AA Corp: Key Facts
Summary 3 AA Corp: Operational Indicators
COMPANY BACKGROUND
Chart 1 AA Corp: Bellavita in Ho Chi Minh City
Chart 2 AA Corp: Nha Xinh in Ho Chi Minh City
PRIVATE LABEL
COMPETITIVE POSITIONING
Summary 4 AA Corp: Competitive Position 2008
AR GROUP - RETAILING - VIETNAM
STRATEGIC DIRECTION
KEY FACTS
Summary 5 AR Group: Key Facts
Summary 6 AR Group: Operational Indicators
COMPANY BACKGROUND
Chart 3 AR Group: Eyewear Hut in Ho Chi Minh City
PRIVATE LABEL
COMPETITIVE POSITIONING
Summary 7 AR Group: Competitive Position 2008
BEN THANH MARKETING CO - RETAILING - VIETNAM
STRATEGIC DIRECTION
KEY FACTS
Summary 8 Ben Thanh Marketing Co: Key Facts
Summary 9 Ben Thanh Marketing Co: Operational Indicators
COMPANY BACKGROUND
Chart 4 Ben Thanh Marketing Co: Best Carings in Hanoi
PRIVATE LABEL
COMPETITIVE POSITIONING
Summary 10 Ben Thanh Marketing Co: Competitive Position 2008
CASINO GUICHARD-PERRACHON SA - RETAILING - VIETNAM
STRATEGIC DIRECTION
KEY FACTS
Summary 11 Casino Guichard-Perrachon: Key Facts
Summary 12 Casino Guichard-Perrachon: Operational Indicators
COMPANY BACKGROUND
Chart 5 Casino Guichard-Perrachon: Big C in Ho Chi Minh City
PRIVATE LABEL
Summary 13 Casino Guichard-Perrachon: Private Label Portfolio
COMPETITIVE POSITIONING
Summary 14 Casino Guichard-Perrachon: Competitive Position 2008
FPT CORP - RETAILING - VIETNAM
STRATEGIC DIRECTION
KEY FACTS
Summary 15 FPT Corp: Key Facts
Summary 16 FPT Corp: Operational Indicators
COMPANY BACKGROUND
Chart 6 FPT Corp: FPT [IN] in Ho Chi Minh City
PRIVATE LABEL
COMPETITIVE POSITIONING
Summary 17 FPT Corp: Competitive Position 2008
G7 TRADING & SERVICE CO LTD - RETAILING - VIETNAM
STRATEGIC DIRECTION
KEY FACTS
Summary 18 G7 Trading & Service Co Ltd: Key Facts
Summary 19 G7 Trading & Service Co Ltd: Operational Indicators
COMPANY BACKGROUND
Chart 7 G7 Trading & Service Co Ltd: G7mart in Ho Chi Minh City
PRIVATE LABEL
COMPETITIVE POSITIONING
Summary 20 G7 Trading & Service Co Ltd: Competitive Position 2008
HO CHI MINH CITY BOOK DISTRIBUTION CO - RETAILING - VIETNAM
STRATEGIC DIRECTION
KEY FACTS
Summary 21 Ho Chi Minh City Book Distribution Co: Key Facts
Summary 22 Ho Chi Minh City Book Distribution Co: Operational Indicators
COMPANY BACKGROUND
Chart 8 Ho Chi Minh City Book Distribution Co: Fahasa in Ho Chi Minh City
PRIVATE LABEL
COMPETITIVE POSITIONING
Summary 23 Ho Chi Minh City Book Distribution Co: Competitive Position 2008
INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS CENTER CORP - RETAILING - VIETNAM
STRATEGIC DIRECTION
KEY FACTS
Summary 24 International Business Center (IBC) Corp: Key Facts
Summary 25 International Business Center (IBC) Corp: Operational Indicators
COMPANY BACKGROUND
Chart 9 International Business Center (IBC): Diamond Plaza in Ho Chi Minh City
PRIVATE LABEL
COMPETITIVE POSITIONING
Summary 26 International Business Center Corp: Competitive Position 2008
MEDICARE CO LTD - RETAILING - VIETNAM
STRATEGIC DIRECTION
KEY FACTS
Summary 27 Medicare Co Ltd: Key Facts
Summary 28 Medicare Co Ltd: Operational Indicators
COMPANY BACKGROUND
Chart 10 Medicare Co Ltd: Medicare in Ho Chi Minh City
PRIVATE LABEL
COMPETITIVE POSITIONING
Summary 29 Medicare Co Ltd: Competitive Position 2008
NGUYEN KIM TRADING JSC - RETAILING - VIETNAM
STRATEGIC DIRECTION
KEY FACTS
Summary 30 Nguyen Kim Trading JSC: Key Facts
Summary 31 Nguyen Kim Trading JSC: Operational Indicators
COMPANY BACKGROUND
Chart 11 Nguyen Kim Trading JSC: Nguyen Kim in Ho Chi Minh City
Chart 12 Nguyen Kim Trading JSC: Nguyen Kim in Ho Chi Minh City
PRIVATE LABEL
COMPETITIVE POSITIONING
Summary 32 Nguyen Kim Trading JSC: Competitive Position 2008
PARKSON CORP SDN BHD - RETAILING - VIETNAM
STRATEGIC DIRECTION
KEY FACTS
Summary 33 Parkson Corp Sdn Bhd: Key Facts
Summary 34 Parkson Corp Sdn Bhd: Operational Indicators
COMPANY BACKGROUND
Chart 13 Parkson Corp Sdn Bhd: Parkson in Ho Chi Minh City
PRIVATE LABEL
COMPETITIVE POSITIONING
Summary 35 Parkson Corp Sdn Bhd: Competitive Position 2008
PHU NHUAN JEWELRY JSC - RETAILING - VIETNAM
STRATEGIC DIRECTION
KEY FACTS
Summary 36 Phu Nhuan Jewelry JSC: Key Facts
Summary 37 Phu Nhuan Jewelry JSC: Operational Indicators
COMPANY BACKGROUND
Chart 14 Phu Nhuan Jewelry JSC: PNJ Silver in Ho Chi Minh City
PRIVATE LABEL
COMPETITIVE POSITIONING
Summary 38 Phu Nhuan Jewelry JSC: Competitive Position 2008
SAIGON JEWELLERY HOLDING CO - RETAILING - VIETNAM
STRATEGIC DIRECTION
KEY FACTS
Summary 39 Saigon Jewellery Holding Co: Key Facts
Summary 40 Saigon Jewellery Holding Co: Operational Indicators
COMPANY BACKGROUND
Chart 15 Saigon Jewellery Holding Company: SJC
PRIVATE LABEL
COMPETITIVE POSITIONING
Summary 41 Saigon Jewellery Holding Company: Competitive Position 2008
SAIGON UNION OF TRADING COOPERATIVES - RETAILING - VIETNAM
STRATEGIC DIRECTION
KEY FACTS
Summary 42 Saigon Union of Trading Cooperatives: Key Facts
Summary 43 Saigon Union of Trading Cooperatives: Operational Indicators
COMPANY BACKGROUND
Chart 16 Saigon Union of Trading Co-operative: Saigon Coop in Ho Chi Minh City
PRIVATE LABEL
Summary 44 Saigon Union of Trading Co-operative: Private Label Portfolio
COMPETITIVE POSITIONING
Summary 45 Saigon Union of Trading Cooperatives: Competitive Position 2008
TCT GROUP - RETAILING - VIETNAM
STRATEGIC DIRECTION
KEY FACTS
Summary 46 TCT Group: Key Facts
Summary 47 TCT Group: Operational Indicators
COMPANY BACKGROUND
Chart 17 TCT Group: Fivimart in Dai La, Hanoi
PRIVATE LABEL
COMPETITIVE POSITIONING
Summary 48 TCT Group: Competitive Position 2008
VIETNAM NATIONAL TEXTILE & GARMENT CORP (VINATEX) - RETAILING - VIETNAM
STRATEGIC DIRECTION
KEY FACTS
Summary 49 Vietnam National Textile & Garment Group: Key Facts
Summary 50 Vietnam National Textile & Garment Group: Operational Indicators
COMPANY BACKGROUND
PRIVATE LABEL
COMPETITIVE POSITIONING
Summary 51 Vietnam National Textile & Garment Group: Competitive Position 2008
HYPERMARKETS IN VIETNAM
OVERVIEW
SECTOR FORMATS
Chart 18 Hypermarkets: Big C
SECTOR DATA
Table 23 Hypermarkets: Value Sales, Outlets and Selling Space 2003-2008
Table 24 Hypermarkets: Value Sales, Outlets and Selling Space: % Growth 2003-2008
Table 25 Hypermarkets Company Shares by Value 2004-2008
Table 26 Hypermarkets Brand Shares by Value 2005-2008
Table 27 Hypermarkets Brand Shares by Outlets 2005-2008
Table 28 Hypermarkets Brand Shares by Selling Space 2005-2008
Table 29 Hypermarkets Forecasts: Value Sales, Outlets and Selling Space 2008-2013
Table 30 Hypermarkets Forecasts: Value Sales, Outlets and Selling Space: % Growth 2008-2013
SUPERMARKETS IN VIETNAM
HEADLINES
OVERVIEW
SECTOR FORMATS
Chart 19 Supermarkets: Co-op Mart
Chart 20 Supermarkets: Wellcome Supermarket
SECTOR DATA
Table 31 Supermarkets: Value Sales, Outlets and Selling Space 2003-2008
Table 32 Supermarkets: Value Sales, Outlets and Selling Space: % Growth 2003-2008
Table 33 Supermarkets Company Shares by Value 2004-2008
Table 34 Supermarkets Brand Shares by Value 2005-2008
Table 35 Supermarkets Brand Shares by Outlets 2005-2008
Table 36 Supermarkets Brand Shares by Selling Space 2005-2008
Table 37 Supermarkets Forecasts: Value Sales, Outlets and Selling Space 2008-2013
Table 38 Supermarkets Forecasts: Value Sales, Outlets and Selling Space: % Growth 2008-2013
DISCOUNTERS IN VIETNAM
HEADLINES
TRENDS
CONVENIENCE STORES IN VIETNAM
HEADLINES
OVERVIEW
SECTOR FORMATS
Chart 21 Convenience Stores: G7mart
Chart 22 Convenience Stores: Shop & Go
SECTOR DATA
Table 39 Convenience Stores: Value Sales, Outlets and Selling Space 2003-2008
Table 40 Convenience Stores: Value Sales, Outlets and Selling Space: % Growth 2003-2008
Table 41 Convenience Stores Company Shares by Value 2004-2008
Table 42 Convenience Stores Brand Shares by Value 2005-2008
Table 43 Convenience Stores Brand Shares by Outlets 2005-2008
Table 44 Convenience Stores Brand Shares by Selling Space 2005-2008
Table 45 Convenience Stores Forecasts: Value Sales, Outlets and Selling Space 2008-2013
Table 46 Convenience Stores Forecasts: Value Sales, Outlets and Selling Space: % Growth 2008-2013
FORECOURT RETAILERS IN VIETNAM
HEADLINES
OVERVIEW
MIXED RETAILERS IN VIETNAM
HEADLINES
TRENDS
COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE
PROSPECTS
SECTOR FORMATS
Chart 23 Mixed Retailers: Parkson in Hanoi
Chart 24 Mixed Retailers: Diamond Plaza
SECTOR DATA
Table 47 Mixed Retailers: Value Sales, Outlets and Selling Space 2003-2008
Table 48 Mixed Retailers: Value Sales, Outlets and Selling Space: % Growth 2003-2008
Table 49 Mixed Retailers Company Shares by Value 2004-2008
Table 50 Mixed Retailers Brand Shares by Value 2005-2008
Table 51 Mixed Retailers Brand Shares by Outlets 2005-2008
Table 52 Mixed Retailers Brand Shares by Selling Space 2005-2008
Table 53 Mixed Retailers Forecasts: Value Sales, Outlets and Selling Space 2008-2013
Table 54 Mixed Retailers Forecasts: Value Sales, Outlets and Selling Space: % Growth 2008-2013
HEALTH AND BEAUTY SPECIALIST RETAILERS IN VIETNAM
HEADLINES
TRENDS
COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE
PROSPECTS
SECTOR FORMATS
Chart 25 Health and Beauty Specialist Retailers: Hals
Chart 26 Health and Beauty Specialist Retailers: Eyewear Hut
SECTOR DATA
Table 55 Health and Beauty Retailers: Value Sales, Outlets and Selling Space 2003-2008
Table 56 Health and Beauty Retailers: Value Sales, Outlets and Selling Space: % Growth 2003-2008
Table 57 Health and Beauty Retailers Company Shares by Value 2004-2008
Table 58 Health and Beauty Retailers Brand Shares by Value 2005-2008
Table 59 Health and Beauty Retailers Brand Shares by Outlets 2005-2008
Table 60 Health and Beauty Retailers Brand Shares by Selling Space 2005-2008
Table 61 Health and Beauty Retailers Forecasts: Value Sales, Outlets and Selling Space 2008-2013
Table 62 Health and Beauty Retailers Forecasts: Value Sales, Outlets and Selling Space: % Growth 2008-2013
CLOTHING AND FOOTWEAR SPECIALIST RETAILERS IN VIETNAM
HEADLINES
OVERVIEW
SECTOR FORMATS
Chart 27 Clothing and Footwear Specialist Retailers: An Phuoc
Chart 28 Clothing and Footwear Specialist Retailers: Foci
SECTOR DATA
Table 63 Clothing and Footwear Retailers: Value Sales, Outlets and Selling Space 2003-2008
Table 64 Clothing and Footwear Retailers: Value Sales, Outlets and Selling Space: % Growth 2003-2008
Table 65 Clothing and Footwear Retailers Company Shares by Value 2004-2008
Table 66 Clothing and Footwear Retailers Brand Shares by Value 2005-2008
Table 67 Clothing and Footwear Retailers Brand Shares by Outlets 2005-2008
Table 68 Clothing and Footwear Retailers Brand Shares by Selling Space 2005-2008
Table 69 Clothing and Footwear Retailers Forecasts: Value Sales, Outlets and Selling Space 2008-2013
Table 70 Clothing and Footwear Retailers Forecasts: Value Sales, Outlets and Selling Space: % Growth 2008-2013
FURNITURE AND FURNISHINGS STORES IN VIETNAM
HEADLINES
OVERVIEW
SECTOR FORMATS
Chart 29 Furniture and Furnishings Stores: Nha Xinh
Chart 30 Furniture and Furnishings Stores: Bellavita
SECTOR DATA
Table 71 Furniture and Furnishings Stores: Value Sales, Outlets and Selling Space 2003-2008
Table 72 Furniture and Furnishings Stores: Value Sales, Outlets and Selling Space: % Growth 2003-2008
Table 73 Furniture and Furnishings Stores Company Shares by Value 2004-2008
Table 74 Furniture and Furnishings Stores Brand Shares by Value 2005-2008
Table 75 Furniture and Furnishings Stores Brand Shares by Outlets 2005-2008
Table 76 Furniture and Furnishings Stores Brand Shares by Selling Space 2005-2008
Table 77 Furniture and Furnishings Stores Forecasts: Value Sales, Outlets and Selling Space 2008-2013
Table 78 Furniture and Furnishings Stores Forecasts: Value Sales, Outlets and Selling Space: % Growth 2008-2013
DIY, HOME IMPROVEMENT AND GARDEN CENTRES IN VIETNAM
HEADLINES
OVERVIEW
ELECTRONICS AND APPLIANCE SPECIALIST RETAILERS IN VIETNAM
HEADLINES
OVERVIEW
SECTOR FORMATS
Chart 31 Electronics and Appliance Specialist Retailers: Best Carings
Chart 32 Electronics and Appliance Specialist Retailers: Nguyen Kim
SECTOR DATA
Table 79 Electronics and Appliance Specialist Retailers: Value Sales, Outlets and Selling Space 2003-2008
Table 80 Electronics and Appliance Specialist Retailers: Value Sales, Outlets and Selling Space: % Growth 2003-2008
Table 81 Electronics and Appliance Specialist Retailers Company Shares by Value 2004-2008
Table 82 Electronics and Appliance Specialist Retailers Brand Shares by Value 2005-2008
Table 83 Electronics and Appliance Specialist Retailers Brand Shares by Outlets 2005-2008
Table 84 Electronics and Appliance Specialist Retailers Brand Shares by Selling Space 2005-2008
Table 85 Electronics and Appliance Specialist Retailers Forecasts: Value Sales, Outlets and Selling Space 2008-2013
Table 86 Electronics and Appliance Specialist Retailers Forecasts: Value Sales, Outlets and Selling Space: % Growth 2008-2013
LEISURE AND PERSONAL GOODS SPECIALIST RETAILERS IN VIETNAM
HEADLINES
OVERVIEW
SECTOR FORMATS
Chart 33 Leisure and Personal Goods Specialist Retailers: PNJ Silver
Chart 34 Leisure and Personal Goods Specialist Retailers: SJC
SECTOR DATA
Table 87 Leisure and Personal Goods Specialist Retailers: Value Sales, Outlets and Selling Space 2003-2008
Table 88 Leisure and Personal Goods Specialist Retailers: Value Sales, Outlets and Selling Space: % Growth 2003-2008
Table 89 Leisure and Personal Goods Specialist Retailers Company Shares by Value 2004-2008
Table 90 Leisure and Personal Goods Specialist Retailers Brand Shares by Value 2005-2008
Table 91 Leisure and Personal Goods Specialist Retailers Brand Shares by Outlets 2005-2008
Table 92 Leisure and Personal Goods Specialist Retailers Brand Shares by Selling Space 2005-2008
Table 93 Leisure and Personal Goods Specialist Retailers Forecasts: Value Sales, Outlets and Selling Space 2008-2013
Table 94 Leisure and Personal Goods Specialist Retailers Forecasts: Value Sales, Outlets and Selling Space: % Growth 2008-2013
VENDING IN VIETNAM
HEADLINES
TRENDS
COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE
PROSPECTS
SECTOR DATA
Table 95 Vending: Value 2003-2008
Table 96 Vending: % Value Growth 2003-2008
Table 97 Vending Company Shares by Value 2004-2008
Table 98 Vending Brand Shares by Value 2005-2008
Table 99 Vending Forecasts: Value 2008-2013
Table 100 Vending Forecasts: % Value Growth 2008-2013
HOMESHOPPING IN VIETNAM
HEADLINES
TRENDS
COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE
PROSPECTS
INTERNET RETAILING IN VIETNAM
HEADLINES
TRENDS
COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE
PROSPECTS
SECTOR FORMATS
Chart 35 Internet Retailing: http://www.sieuthi24h.com/home.asp
Chart 36 Internet Retailing: http://www.muabanhangngay.vn/
DIRECT SELLING IN VIETNAM
HEADLINES
TRENDS
COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE
PROSPECTS
SECTOR DATA
Table 101 Direct Selling: Value 2003-2008
Table 102 Direct Selling: % Value Growth 2003-2008
Table 103 Direct Selling Company Shares by Value 2004-2008
Table 104 Direct Selling Brand Shares by Value 2005-2008
Table 105 Direct Selling Forecasts: Value 2008-2013
Table 106 Direct Selling Forecasts: % Value Growth 2008-2013