The Shift to Towns & Out Again: Urbanisation and Ruralisation Patterns to 2015
Euromonitor International's The Shift to Towns & Out Again: Urbanisation and Ruralisation Patterns to 2015 As towns swell across the developing world to satisfy the demand for engagement with the urban economy, and suburbs and new towns spread over the countryside in developed markets, demographic patterns across the world are changing faster than ever. Euromonitor International's The Shift to Towns: Urbanisation Patterns to 2015 report charts these shifts and forecasts what they mean for distributors, suppliers and those involved with communicating about consumer goods and services.
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Chapters: 7 | Tables: 21 | Publication date: Sep 2005
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- Get insight into trends in market performance
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Regional coverage
Western Europe; Eastern Europe; North America; Latin America; Asia-Pacific; Oceania; Africa and the Middle East
Table of contents
1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
1.1 URBANISATION TRENDS
Chart 1 World's 10 Fastest Growing Cities 2000-2005
1.2 IMPACT OF URBANISATION
Summary 1 Effects of Urbanisation 2005
1.3 KEY TRENDS
Summary 2 Key Trends in Selected Countries 2005
1.4 CONSUMER TRENDS
1.5 FUTURE TRENDS
Chart 2 Forecast Percentage Urban Populations by Region 2005/2015
2. INTRODUCTION
2.1 DEFINITIONS
Urbanisation
Variable parameters
Megacities and agglomerations
2.2 HISTORICAL DEVELOPMENT OF URBANISATION
Industrialisation fuels growth in previous centuries
Rural poverty a more recent cause
Summary 3 History of Urbanisation 1800-2000
2.3 EFFECTS OF URBANISATION
Economic changes
Environmental changes
Urban lifestyles
2.4 SUBURBANISATION/RURALISATION
The suburbanisation phenomenon
Chart 3 US: Three Stage Pattern
"Exurbanisation"
A place in the country
Government efforts to even population density
The "new towns" solution
3. DEVELOPMENT DRIVERS
3.1 REGULATORY ISSUES
Zoning regulations
Retailing regulations
Laws relaxed in Japan
Summary 4 Legal Restrictions on Large-scale Retail Development in Selected Markets2005
3.2 HOUSING ISSUES
Changes in household structure
Chart 4 Single Households as Percentage Total by Country 2005
Types of housing
Housing costs
3.3 URBAN REGENERATION
Suburban regeneration
City centre regeneration
3.4 WORK TRENDS
Cities offer better work prospects
Growth in the number of working women
Longer but more flexible working hours
The rise of telecommuting
Changing profile of teleworkers
3.5 IMMIGRATION PATTERNS
Strong growth in developed markets
Problems of integration
Origin of Western immigrants
Few immigrants in Japan
Immigrants move to the suburbs
Table 1 Population of Foreign Citizens 2000/2005
3.6 ROADS AND TRANSPORT
Commuting
Road congestion
Car pooling
Road pricing
Improving subway systems
3.7 ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUES
Cars multiply in developing markets
Need for fuel efficiency
Greener alternatives to combustion engines
3.8 WEALTH
Rising middle-class city dwellers in developing countries
The relentless spread of slums in developing markets
Rural poverty
3.9 CRIME AND TERRORISM
City crime shifts from US to Europe
Violence part of life in Latin America's cities
Terrorists strike fear into city dwellers
Summary 5 Incidences of Terrorism in Major Cities 2001-2005
Effects of terrorism on cities
Anti-terrorism measures
4. GLOBAL TRENDS IN DEVELOPMENT
4.1 REGIONAL TRENDS
Most Australasians live in cities
Latin America less urban than figures suggest?
Middle America still rural
Africa and the Middle East sees strongest urban growth
Asia-Pacific still largely rural
Chart 5 Urban/Rural Population Breakdown by Region 2005
Highest population densities in Asia-Pacific and Western Europe
Other regions more sparsely populated
Chart 6 Population Density by Region 2000/2005
4.2 COUNTRY TRENDS
Small, developed countries have high urban ratios
Large developing countries still largely rural
Saudi government attempts to halt urbanisation
Istanbul growing quickly but remains partly undeveloped
Chart 7 Countries with Highest Urban to Rural Ratio 2005
Chart 8 Countries with Fastest Growing Urban Populations 2000/2005
5. IMPACT ON CONSUMER MARKETS
5.1 CHANGES IN RETAILING INFRASTRUCTURE
Urbanisation allows retailers to expand to emerging markets
Rural areas difficult to penetrate
The rise of out-of-town shopping centres
Summary 6 Shopping Centre Developments in Key Markets 2000-2005
Refocus on urban locations
Shopping centres incorporate services
Emergence of shopping centres in developing markets
Eastern Europe sees boom in out-of-town centres
Impulse shopping developments
Table 2 Sales Through Impulse Shopping Channels by Country 2000/2005
5.2 THE INTERNET AND HOME DELIVERY
Teleworking fuels Internet shopping
Women purchasing more online
Internet sales expand in Asia-Pacific
5.3 CONSUMER PRODUCTS AND SERVICES
Ready meals and snack foods popular with urban dwellers
Targeting ethnic consumers
Need for compact appliances
Ruralisation encourages DIY and gardening
Summary 7 Consumer Market Sectors Affected by Urban/Rural Shifts
6. URBAN/RURAL SHIFTS IN MAJOR MARKETS
6.1 BRAZIL
Population trends
Table 3 Brazil: Population Parameters 1990-2015
Major towns
Chart 9 Brazil: Five Largest Cities by Population: 2000/2005
Socioeconomic patterns
Table 4 Brazil: Population of Foreign Citizens 2000
6.2 CHINA
Population trends
Table 5 China: Population Parameters 1990-2015
Major towns
Chart 10 China: Five Largest Cities by Population: 2000/2005
Socioeconomic patterns
6.3 FRANCE
Population trends
Table 6 France: Population Parameters 1990-2015
Major towns
Chart 11 France: Five Largest Cities by Population: 2000/2005
Socioeconomic patterns
6.4 GERMANY
Population trends
Table 7 Germany: Population Parameters 1990-2015
Major towns
Chart 12 Germany: Five Largest Cities by Population: 2000/2005
Socioeconomic patterns
6.5 INDIA
Population trends
Table 8 India: Population Parameters 1990-2015
Major towns
Chart 13 India: Five Largest Cities by Population: 2000/2005
Socioeconomic patterns
6.6 ITALY
Population trends
Table 9 Italy: Population Parameters 1990-2015
Major towns
Chart 14 Italy: Five Largest Cities by Population: 2000/2005
Socioeconomic patterns
6.7 JAPAN
Population trends
Table 10 Japan: Population Parameters 1990-2015
Major towns
Chart 15 Japan: Five Largest Cities by Population: 2000/2005
Socioeconomic patterns
6.8 UNITED KINGDOM
Population trends
Table 11 United Kingdom: Population Parameters 1990-2015
Major cities
Chart 16 United Kingdom: Five Largest Cities by Population: 2000/2005
Socioeconomic patterns
6.9 USA
Population trends
Table 12 US: Population Parameters 1990-2015
Major towns
Chart 17 US: Five Largest Cities by Population: 2000/2005
Socioeconomic patterns
7. FUTURE OUTLOOK
7.1 TRENDS TO WATCH
Urbanisation to continue apace
The growth of megacities
Chart 18 Projection of World's Largest Urban Agglomerations in 2015
Continuing search for greenery
Environmental concern will remain high on the agenda
Changing household structures
Convenience over all
Retailers will continue to target rapidly urbanising markets
Online shopping represents the future of retailing
7.2 MARKET FORECASTS
Urbanisation will remain strongest in developing countries
Growth spurred by foreign investment
Western urbanisation fuelled by immigration
Table 13 Fastest Urban Growth by Country 2005-2015
Russia's urban population will decline, though ratio will climb
Locals will move to the country in Western Europe
Table 14 Slowest Urban Growth by Country 2005-2015