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The Shift to Towns & Out Again: Urbanisation and Ruralisation Patterns to 2015

Euromonitor International's The Shift to Towns & Out Again: Urbanisation and Ruralisation Patterns to 2015 As towns swell across the developing world to satisfy the demand for engagement with the urban economy, and suburbs and new towns spread over the countryside in developed markets, demographic patterns across the world are changing faster than ever. Euromonitor International's The Shift to Towns: Urbanisation Patterns to 2015 report charts these shifts and forecasts what they mean for distributors, suppliers and those involved with communicating about consumer goods and services.

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Chapters: 7  |  Tables: 21  |  Publication date: Sep 2005
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Regional coverage

Western Europe; Eastern Europe; North America; Latin America; Asia-Pacific; Oceania; Africa and the Middle East

Table of contents

1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

1.1 URBANISATION TRENDS

Chart 1 World's 10 Fastest Growing Cities 2000-2005

1.2 IMPACT OF URBANISATION

Summary 1 Effects of Urbanisation 2005

1.3 KEY TRENDS

Summary 2 Key Trends in Selected Countries 2005

1.4 CONSUMER TRENDS

1.5 FUTURE TRENDS

Chart 2 Forecast Percentage Urban Populations by Region 2005/2015

2. INTRODUCTION

2.1 DEFINITIONS

Urbanisation

Variable parameters

Megacities and agglomerations

2.2 HISTORICAL DEVELOPMENT OF URBANISATION

Industrialisation fuels growth in previous centuries

Rural poverty a more recent cause

Summary 3 History of Urbanisation 1800-2000

2.3 EFFECTS OF URBANISATION

Economic changes

Environmental changes

Urban lifestyles

2.4 SUBURBANISATION/RURALISATION

The suburbanisation phenomenon

Chart 3 US: Three Stage Pattern

"Exurbanisation"

A place in the country

Government efforts to even population density

The "new towns" solution

3. DEVELOPMENT DRIVERS

3.1 REGULATORY ISSUES

Zoning regulations

Retailing regulations

Laws relaxed in Japan

Summary 4 Legal Restrictions on Large-scale Retail Development in Selected Markets2005

3.2 HOUSING ISSUES

Changes in household structure

Chart 4 Single Households as Percentage Total by Country 2005

Types of housing

Housing costs

3.3 URBAN REGENERATION

Suburban regeneration

City centre regeneration

3.4 WORK TRENDS

Cities offer better work prospects

Growth in the number of working women

Longer but more flexible working hours

The rise of telecommuting

Changing profile of teleworkers

3.5 IMMIGRATION PATTERNS

Strong growth in developed markets

Problems of integration

Origin of Western immigrants

Few immigrants in Japan

Immigrants move to the suburbs

Table 1 Population of Foreign Citizens 2000/2005

3.6 ROADS AND TRANSPORT

Commuting

Road congestion

Car pooling

Road pricing

Improving subway systems

3.7 ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUES

Cars multiply in developing markets

Need for fuel efficiency

Greener alternatives to combustion engines

3.8 WEALTH

Rising middle-class city dwellers in developing countries

The relentless spread of slums in developing markets

Rural poverty

3.9 CRIME AND TERRORISM

City crime shifts from US to Europe

Violence part of life in Latin America's cities

Terrorists strike fear into city dwellers

Summary 5 Incidences of Terrorism in Major Cities 2001-2005

Effects of terrorism on cities

Anti-terrorism measures

4. GLOBAL TRENDS IN DEVELOPMENT

4.1 REGIONAL TRENDS

Most Australasians live in cities

Latin America less urban than figures suggest?

Middle America still rural

Africa and the Middle East sees strongest urban growth

Asia-Pacific still largely rural

Chart 5 Urban/Rural Population Breakdown by Region 2005

Highest population densities in Asia-Pacific and Western Europe

Other regions more sparsely populated

Chart 6 Population Density by Region 2000/2005

4.2 COUNTRY TRENDS

Small, developed countries have high urban ratios

Large developing countries still largely rural

Saudi government attempts to halt urbanisation

Istanbul growing quickly but remains partly undeveloped

Chart 7 Countries with Highest Urban to Rural Ratio 2005

Chart 8 Countries with Fastest Growing Urban Populations 2000/2005

5. IMPACT ON CONSUMER MARKETS

5.1 CHANGES IN RETAILING INFRASTRUCTURE

Urbanisation allows retailers to expand to emerging markets

Rural areas difficult to penetrate

The rise of out-of-town shopping centres

Summary 6 Shopping Centre Developments in Key Markets 2000-2005

Refocus on urban locations

Shopping centres incorporate services

Emergence of shopping centres in developing markets

Eastern Europe sees boom in out-of-town centres

Impulse shopping developments

Table 2 Sales Through Impulse Shopping Channels by Country 2000/2005

5.2 THE INTERNET AND HOME DELIVERY

Teleworking fuels Internet shopping

Women purchasing more online

Internet sales expand in Asia-Pacific

5.3 CONSUMER PRODUCTS AND SERVICES

Ready meals and snack foods popular with urban dwellers

Targeting ethnic consumers

Need for compact appliances

Ruralisation encourages DIY and gardening

Summary 7 Consumer Market Sectors Affected by Urban/Rural Shifts

6. URBAN/RURAL SHIFTS IN MAJOR MARKETS

6.1 BRAZIL

Population trends

Table 3 Brazil: Population Parameters 1990-2015

Major towns

Chart 9 Brazil: Five Largest Cities by Population: 2000/2005

Socioeconomic patterns

Table 4 Brazil: Population of Foreign Citizens 2000

6.2 CHINA

Population trends

Table 5 China: Population Parameters 1990-2015

Major towns

Chart 10 China: Five Largest Cities by Population: 2000/2005

Socioeconomic patterns

6.3 FRANCE

Population trends

Table 6 France: Population Parameters 1990-2015

Major towns

Chart 11 France: Five Largest Cities by Population: 2000/2005

Socioeconomic patterns

6.4 GERMANY

Population trends

Table 7 Germany: Population Parameters 1990-2015

Major towns

Chart 12 Germany: Five Largest Cities by Population: 2000/2005

Socioeconomic patterns

6.5 INDIA

Population trends

Table 8 India: Population Parameters 1990-2015

Major towns

Chart 13 India: Five Largest Cities by Population: 2000/2005

Socioeconomic patterns

6.6 ITALY

Population trends

Table 9 Italy: Population Parameters 1990-2015

Major towns

Chart 14 Italy: Five Largest Cities by Population: 2000/2005

Socioeconomic patterns

6.7 JAPAN

Population trends

Table 10 Japan: Population Parameters 1990-2015

Major towns

Chart 15 Japan: Five Largest Cities by Population: 2000/2005

Socioeconomic patterns

6.8 UNITED KINGDOM

Population trends

Table 11 United Kingdom: Population Parameters 1990-2015

Major cities

Chart 16 United Kingdom: Five Largest Cities by Population: 2000/2005

Socioeconomic patterns

6.9 USA

Population trends

Table 12 US: Population Parameters 1990-2015

Major towns

Chart 17 US: Five Largest Cities by Population: 2000/2005

Socioeconomic patterns

7. FUTURE OUTLOOK

7.1 TRENDS TO WATCH

Urbanisation to continue apace

The growth of megacities

Chart 18 Projection of World's Largest Urban Agglomerations in 2015

Continuing search for greenery

Environmental concern will remain high on the agenda

Changing household structures

Convenience over all

Retailers will continue to target rapidly urbanising markets

Online shopping represents the future of retailing

7.2 MARKET FORECASTS

Urbanisation will remain strongest in developing countries

Growth spurred by foreign investment

Western urbanisation fuelled by immigration

Table 13 Fastest Urban Growth by Country 2005-2015

Russia's urban population will decline, though ratio will climb

Locals will move to the country in Western Europe

Table 14 Slowest Urban Growth by Country 2005-2015

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