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Country Report

Alcoholic Drinks in Tunisia

Mar 2012

Price: US$1,900

About this Report

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Difficult first half of the year but good overall performance

Sales of alcohol plummeted in the first half 2011 due to the impact of the popular uprising against President Ben Ali’s rule. During the first months of the year, many supermarkets were looted and destroyed by protesters – a development that resulted in many disruptions to the sale of alcohol products. However, consumption resumed after the new transitional government took power and growth returned to pre-revolution levels.

Political tensions and tourism crisis

Although local consumption of beer was resilient in 2011, within both formal and informal channels, a sharp slowdown was recorded within wine and spirits. Since these products are more expensive, they are especially popular with Western tourists who visit Tunisia in summer. However, the tourist season in 2011 was underwhelming due to the still difficult political situation and civil war in neighbouring Libya. All of these factors discouraged European tour operators from shifting back to traditional destinations like Spain or Greece.

No change to competitive landscape

In what is a relatively consolidated area, there were no significant changes regarding company sales share and performance in 2011. Société Frigorifique et Brasserie de Tunis, which previously had a monopoly, remained the largest company in the area and significantly increased its sales share thanks to the good performance of its economy beer brands. The company continues to dominate sales due to a lack of competition, an extensive distribution network and the fact that large-scale production helps to lower costs.

Supermarkets lose share to other channels

Supermarkets were hit hard by political instability in 2011, with most chains recording a drop in sales. Around 20 Magasin Général stores were either looted or destroyed and it took the company until the end of the year to reopen all of its stores. As a result, alcohol sales also fell as consumers turned to small grocery retailers instead. Sales from the only hypermarket not closed during the year, Carrefour (near the capital city), soared as consumers flocked to it thanks to its large product offering and the availability of multipacks which are sold at cheaper prices than in other channels.

Alcoholic drinks sales prove resilient

Alcoholic drinks sales proved to be surprisingly resilient in Tunisia in 2011 despite the lack of tourists in summer and the growing influence of Islamist parties. Forecast period volume growth will be close to that recorded over the review period and will be fuelled by rising demand for economy products, mostly within beer. Wine and spirits will be directly impacted by the sluggish performance of the tourism sector as a result of the recession in Europe.


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Overview

Discover the latest market trends and uncover sources of future market growth for the Alcoholic Drinks industry in Tunisia with research from Euromonitor's team of in-country analysts.

Find hidden opportunities in the most current research data available, understand competitive threats with our detailed market analysis, and plan your corporate strategy with our expert qualitative analysis and growth projections.

If you're in the Alcoholic Drinks industry in Tunisia, our research will save you time and money while empowering you to make informed, profitable decisions.

When you purchase this report, you also get the data and the content from these category reports in Tunisia for free:

The Alcoholic Drinks in Tunisia market research report includes:

  • Analysis of key supply-side and demand trends
  • Detailed segmentation of international and local products
  • Historic volumes and values, company and brand market shares
  • Five year forecasts of market trends and market growth
  • Production, imports by origin, exports by destination
  • Robust and transparent market research methodology, conducted in-country

Our market research reports answer questions such as:

  • What is the market size of Alcoholic Drinks in Tunisia?
  • What are the major brands in Tunisia?
  • Have there been any alcoholic drinks legislative changes over the past 12 months?
  • How is the alcoholic drinks industry affected by the recession?
  • What is consumed more; beer, wine or spirits?
  • What have been the key trends seen in new product developments?
  • Do alcoholic drinks consumers want value for money or added value?

Why buy this report?

  • Gain competitive intelligence about market leaders
  • Track key industry trends, opportunities and threats
  • Inform your marketing, brand, strategy and market development, sales and supply functions

This industry report originates from Passport, our Alcoholic Drinks market research database.

Table of Contents

Table of Contents

Alcoholic Drinks in Tunisia - Industry Overview

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Difficult first half of the year but good overall performance

Political tensions and tourism crisis

No change to competitive landscape

Supermarkets lose share to other channels

Alcoholic drinks sales prove resilient

MARKET BACKGROUND

Legislation

TAXATION AND DUTY LEVIES

  • Table 1 Taxation and Duty Levies on Alcoholic Drinks 2011
  • Table 2 Typical Wholesaler and Retailer Off-trade Mark-ups by Selected Categories 2011
  • Table 3 Selling Margin of a Typical Beer Brand 2011 - Celtia
  • Table 4 Selling Margin of a Typical Wine Brand 2011 – Belli Village Rouge
  • Table 5 Selling Margin of a Typical Spirits Brand 2011 – Boukha Soleil

OPERATING ENVIRONMENT

Contraband/parallel Trade

Duty-free

Cross-border/private Imports

KEY NEW PRODUCT LAUNCHES

  • Summary 1 Key New Product Developments 2010-2011

MARKET INDICATORS

  • Table 6 Retail Consumer Expenditure on Alcoholic Drinks 2006-2011

MARKET DATA

  • Table 7 Sales of Alcoholic Drinks by Category: Total Volume 2006-2011
  • Table 8 Sales of Alcoholic Drinks by Category: Total Value 2006-2011
  • Table 9 Sales of Alcoholic Drinks by Category: % Total Volume Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 10 Sales of Alcoholic Drinks by Category: % Total Value Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 11 Sales of Alcoholic Drinks by Category by On-trade vs Off-trade Split: Volume 2011
  • Table 12 Sales of Alcoholic Drinks by Category by On-trade vs Off-trade Split: Value 2011
  • Table 13 Sales of Alcoholic Drinks by Category by On-trade vs Off-trade Split: % Volume 2011
  • Table 14 Sales of Alcoholic Drinks by Category by On-trade vs Off-trade Split: % Value 2011
  • Table 15 Company Shares of Alcoholic Drinks by Global Brand Owner 2007-2011
  • Table 16 Off-trade Sales of Alcoholic Drinks by Distribution Format: % Value Analysis 2006-2011
  • Table 17 Off-trade Sales of Alcoholic Drinks by Category and Distribution Format: % Volume Analysis 2011
  • Table 18 Forecast Sales of Alcoholic Drinks by Category: Total Volume 2011-2016
  • Table 19 Forecast Sales of Alcoholic Drinks by Category: Total Value 2011-2016
  • Table 20 Forecast Sales of Alcoholic Drinks by Category: % Total Volume Growth 2011-2016
  • Table 21 Forecast Sales of Alcoholic Drinks by Category: % Total Value Growth 2011-2016

DEFINITIONS

SOURCES

  • Summary 2 Research Sources

Alcoholic Drinks in Tunisia - Company Profiles

Domaine Neferis in Alcoholic Drinks (Tunisia)

STRATEGIC DIRECTION

KEY FACTS

COMPANY BACKGROUND

PRODUCTION

COMPETITIVE POSITIONING

Société nouvelle de Brasserie (SONOBRA) in Alcoholic Drinks (Tunisia)

STRATEGIC DIRECTION

KEY FACTS

COMPANY BACKGROUND

PRODUCTION

COMPETITIVE POSITIONING

  • Summary 5 Société nouvelle de Brasserie (SONOBRA): Competitive Position 2011

Société Tardi in Alcoholic Drinks (Tunisia)

STRATEGIC DIRECTION

KEY FACTS

COMPANY BACKGROUND

PRODUCTION

COMPETITIVE POSITIONING

Beer in Tunisia - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • There was an economic recession in Tunisia in 2011 as a result of the revolution and its impact on the tourism sector. Indeed, most of Tunisia was under curfew for several weeks in February – a situation which obviously hit on-trade sales very hard. However, by spring 2011 all of the cities in the country were safe again, thereby allowing for the re-opening of all supermarkets, hotels, restaurants and cafes.

PRODUCTION, IMPORTS AND EXPORTS

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

  • Société Frigorifique et Brasserie de Tunis maintained its leading position in 2011, recording a total volume share of 95% due to the overwhelming popularity of its Celtia brand. Heineken is targeted at some affluent ‘white collar’ consumers who are not targeted by SFBT. However, sales of the brand remain limited. In addition, the competitiveness of the group is also a major asset. Thanks to a good financial situation, the company can easily adapt and react to new comers. Furthermore, Heineken will have to charge higher prices than SFBT in order to make a profit on its investment.

PROSPECTS

  • Beer has a projected forecast period total volume CAGR of 4%. Thanks to the introduction of new brands, consumers will become more aware of different qualities and tastes and start to move away from Celtia. The constant improvement in living standards and the Westernisation of Tunisian society will help to fuel demand for beer as the stigma regarding alcohol declines amongst the younger generation. In addition, with the launch of new products, beer manufacturers are becoming more aggressive with regards to their advertising operations.

CATEGORY BACKGROUND

Lager price band methodology

  • Summary 7 Lager by Price Band 2011

CATEGORY DATA

  • Table 22 Sales of Beer by Category: Total Volume 2006-2011
  • Table 23 Sales of Beer by Category: Total Value 2006-2011
  • Table 24 Sales of Beer by Category: % Total Volume Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 25 Sales of Beer by Category: % Total Value Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 26 Sales of Beer by On-trade vs Off-trade Split: Volume 2006-2011
  • Table 27 Sales of Beer by On-trade vs Off-trade Split: Value 2006-2011
  • Table 28 Sales of Beer by On-trade vs Off-trade Split: % Volume Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 29 Sales of Beer by On-trade vs Off-trade Split: % Value Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 30 Beer: Production, Imports and Exports: Total Volume 2005-2010
  • Table 31 Company Shares of Beer by National Brand Owner 2007-2011
  • Table 32 Company Shares of Beer by Global Brand Owner 2007-2011
  • Table 33 Brand Shares of Beer 2008-2011
  • Table 34 Forecast Sales of Beer by Category: Total Volume 2011-2016
  • Table 35 Forecast Sales of Beer by Category: Total Value 2011-2016
  • Table 36 Forecast Sales of Beer by Category: % Total Volume Growth 2011-2016
  • Table 37 Forecast Sales of Beer by Category: % Total Value Growth 2011-2016

Cider/Perry in Tunisia - Category Analysis

TRENDS

  • The availability of cider and perry remains negligible in Tunisia due to very limited consumer awareness of such products and the lack of a tradition of cider production in the country. Furthermore, most tourists come from Western Europe, where cider is considered a winter drink, and tend to prefer beer or wine during their holidays. However, this could change if the number of tourists from the UK, where cider is very popular, increases in the future.

RTDs/High-Strength Premixes in Tunisia - Category Analysis

TRENDS

  • RTDs and high-strength premixes sales are negligible in Tunisia. Most consumers are fairly loyal to beer and spirit-based cocktails and are not attracted by ready-made versions. This could change in the near future, however, as the clubbing scene is gaining momentum in Tunisia and is likely to attract more young people unless the new Islamist government moves to restrict its expansion.

Spirits in Tunisia - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • Spirits sales were negatively affected by political instability in 2011, with total volume growth of 2% being far below the review period average of 8%. The fact that many modern retail stores were looted and destroyed disrupted consumption. Worried consumers focussed on essential goods rather than spirits, which are quite expensive, with many people trading down to beer.

PRODUCTION, IMPORTS AND EXPORTS

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

  • The largest player in spirits is Ets Felix Habib & Cie, which recorded a retail volume CAGR of 44% in 2011. The company is a main player within Boukha, which is the largest product area in volume terms. Ets Felix Habib & Cie was also successful in selling imported products locally thanks to its strong relationships with international suppliers. The company has a leading sales share within major areas such as whisky and white spirits.

PROSPECTS

  • Spirits’ projected forecast period total volume CAGR of 3% is much lower than the review period average of 8% as consumer confidence is still relatively low due to the political transition and the tourism sector is expected to remain subdued over the coming years due to the on-going Eurozone debt crisis and fears of insecurity in North Africa.

CATEGORY DATA

  • Table 38 Sales of Spirits by Category: Total Volume 2006-2011
  • Table 39 Sales of Spirits by Category: Total Value 2006-2011
  • Table 40 Sales of Spirits by Category: % Total Volume Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 41 Sales of Spirits by Category: % Total Value Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 42 Sales of Spirits by On-trade vs Off-trade Split: Volume 2006-2011
  • Table 43 Sales of Spirits by On-trade vs Off-trade Split: Value 2006-2011
  • Table 44 Sales of Spirits by On-trade vs Off-trade Split: % Volume Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 45 Sales of Spirits by On-trade vs Off-trade Split: % Value Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 46 Spirits Production, Imports and Exports: Total Volume 2005-2010
  • Table 47 Company Shares of Spirits by National Brand Owner 2007-2011
  • Table 48 Company Shares of Spirits by Global Brand Owner 2007-2011
  • Table 49 Brand Shares of Spirits 2008-2011
  • Table 50 Forecast Sales of Spirits by Category: Total Volume 2011-2016
  • Table 51 Forecast Sales of Spirits by Category: Total Value 2011-2016
  • Table 52 Forecast Sales of Spirits by Category: % Total Volume Growth 2011-2016
  • Table 53 Forecast Sales of Spirits by Category: % Total Value Growth 2011-2016

Wine in Tunisia - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • Wine total volume growth of 1% in 2011 was lower than the review period average of 3% due to the reduction in inbound tourism caused by political instability. Furthermore, many supermarkets, which are the main distribution channel for wine, were looted or damaged following the fall of Ben Ali’s regime and remained out of business for several months. Also, the rising presence of conservative religious groups also pushed consumers to be more discreet and limit their consumption of alcohol.

PRODUCTION, IMPORTS AND EXPORTS

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

  • The Union Centrale des Coopératives Viticoles (UCCV) owns 10 of the 17 vineyards operating in Tunisia and is the largest producer in the country. UCCV strives to produce high-quality wines that yield the greatest profit margins. Furthermore, the company is the main supplier of high end restaurants and hotels in the country.

PROSPECTS

  • Ramadan will fall during summer for most of the forecast period and will cause Tunisian consumers to reduce alcohol expenditure slightly. Despite the increasing popularity of wine and the premiumisation trend, wine’s total volume CAGR of 1% is lower than the review period average of 3%. Furthermore, the outlook for tourism is uncertain with Europe still in the midst of recession and political instability in Tunisia and Libya likely to deter some people from visiting.

CATEGORY DATA

  • Table 54 Sales of Wine by Category: Total Volume 2006-2011
  • Table 55 Sales of Wine by Category: Total Value 2006-2011
  • Table 56 Sales of Wine by Category: % Total Volume Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 57 Sales of Wine by Category: % Total Value Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 58 Sales of Wine by On-trade vs Off-trade Split: Volume 2006-2011
  • Table 59 Sales of Wine by On-trade vs Off-trade Split: Value 2006-2011
  • Table 60 Sales of Wine by On-trade vs Off-trade Split: % Volume Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 61 Sales of Wine by On-trade vs Off-trade Split: % Value Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 62 Wine Production, Imports and Exports: Total Volume 2005-2010
  • Table 63 Forecast Sales of Wine by Category: Total Volume 2011-2016
  • Table 64 Forecast Sales of Wine by Category: Total Value 2011-2016
  • Table 65 Forecast Sales of Wine by Category: % Total Volume Growth 2011-2016
  • Table 66 Forecast Sales of Wine by Category: % Total Value Growth 2011-2016

Segmentation

Segmentation

This market research report includes the following:

  • Alcoholic Drinks
    • Beer
      • Dark Beer
        • Lager
          • Premium Lager
            • Domestic Premium Lager
            • Imported Premium Lager
          • Standard Lager
            • Domestic Standard Lager
            • Imported Standard Lager
          • Economy Lager
            • Domestic Economy Lager
            • Imported Economy Lager
        • Lager by Origin
          • Domestic Lager
            • Domestic Premium Lager
            • Domestic Standard Lager
            • Domestic Economy Lager
          • Imported Lager
            • Imported Premium Lager
            • Imported Standard Lager
            • Imported Economy Lager
        • Low/Non- Alcohol Beer
          • Low Alcohol Beer
          • Non-Alcoholic Beer
        • Stout
      • Cider/Perry
      • RTDs/High-Strength Premixes
        • High-Strength Premixes
        • RTDs
          • Malt-Based RTDs
          • Spirit-Based RTDs
          • Wine-Based RTDs
          • Other RTDs
      • Spirits
        • Brandy and Cognac
          • Brandy
          • Cognac
        • Liqueurs
          • Bitters
          • Cream-Based Liqueurs
          • Other Liqueurs
        • Rum
          • Dark Rum
          • White Rum
        • Tequila (and Mezcal)
        • Whiskies
          • Bourbon/Other US Whiskey
          • Canadian Whisky
          • Irish Whiskey
          • Japanese Whisky
          • Blended Scotch Whisky
            • Blended Malt Scotch Whisky
            • Other Blended Scotch Whisky
          • Single Malt Scotch Whisky
          • Other Whiskies
        • White Spirits
          • Gin
            • English Gin
            • Dutch Gin
          • Vodka
        • Other Spirits
          • Boukha
          • Other Distilled Beverages
      • Wine
        • Fortified Wine and Vermouth
          • Non-Grape Wine
            • Sparkling Wine
              • Champagne
              • Other Sparkling Wine
            • Still Light Grape Wine
              • Still Red Wine
              • Still Rosé Wine
              • Still White Wine

        Statistics Included

        Statistics Included

        For each category and subcategory you will receive the following data in Excel format:

        From Passport

        • Market sizes
        • Company shares
        • Brand shares
        • Distribution
        • Distribution
        • Exports by country - value
        • Exports by country - volume
        • Imports by country - value
        • Imports by country - volume
        • Off-trade vs on-trade
        • Pricing
        • Products by ingredient
        • Products by ingredient
        • Trade statistics - volume

        Market size details:

        • Off-trade volume
        • Off-trade volume % growth
        • Off-trade volume per capita
        • On-trade volume
        • On-trade volume % growth
        • On-trade volume per capita
        • Total volume
        • Total volume % growth
        • Total volume per capita
        • Off-trade value retail selling price % growth
        • Off-trade value retail selling price local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
        • Off-trade value retail selling price per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
        • On-trade value retail selling price % growth
        • On-trade value retail selling price local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
        • On-trade value retail selling price per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
        • Total value retail selling price % growth
        • Total value retail selling price local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
        • Total value retail selling price per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
        • Off-trade value manufacturer selling price % growth
        • Off-trade value manufacturer selling price local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
        • Off-trade value manufacturer selling price per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
        • On-trade value manufacturer selling price % growth
        • On-trade value manufacturer selling price local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
        • On-trade value manufacturer selling price per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
        • Total value manufacturer selling price % growth
        • Total value manufacturer selling price local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
        • Total value manufacturer selling price per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
        • Off-trade rtd volume
        • Off-trade rtd volume % growth
        • Off-trade rtd volume per capita
        • On-trade rtd volume
        • On-trade rtd volume % growth
        • On-trade rtd volume per capita
        • Total rtd volume
        • Total rtd volume % growth
        • Total rtd volume per capita
        • Off-trade volume litres of pure alcohol
        • Off-trade volume litres of pure alcohol % growth
        • Off-trade volume litres of pure alcohol per capita
        • On-trade volume litres of pure alcohol
        • On-trade volume litres of pure alcohol % growth
        • On-trade volume litres of pure alcohol per capita
        • Total volume litres of pure alcohol
        • Total volume litres of pure alcohol % growth
        • Total volume litres of pure alcohol per capita

        Methodology

        Methodology

        Global insight and local knowledge

        With 40 years’ experience of developed and emerging markets, Euromonitor International’s research method is built on a unique combination of specialist industry knowledge and in-country research expertise.

        This approach is what enables us to achieve our goal of building a market consensus view of size, shape and trends across the full distribution universe of each category. We factor in whichever channels are relevant, from large-scale grocery to direct sellers, from discount stores to local mom-and-pop outlets.

        Industry specialists

        Each industry we cover is managed by an Industry Manager and team of Industry Analysts who research and report on their specialist categories all year round.

        Our collaborative approach to research means that these industry teams are in constant dialogue with industry players and opinion formers. The planning of our research programmes reflects latest market trends and industry events. In completing each update project, this provides invaluable input to the testing, review and finalisation of our data.

        The specialist in-house teams bring together findings from all stages of the annual research process. They work closely with in-country analysts, assess and challenge data and exercise final editorial control over the publication of new data and analysis.

        Country and regional analysts

        Our in-country analyst network is managed by country and regional analysts in our offices around the world. Working closely with each in-country team, the regional research management team ensures that all country researchers are well schooled in best practices, from the information collected in store checks, to the dialogue we build in trade surveys. Our country analysts ensure that national reports explain the data trends and provide clear insights into the local market’s dynamics.

        In-country research network

        To deliver fresh insights every year in countries all around the world, we believe the strongest approach is to use analysts on the ground. They bring fluency in local language, physical proximity to the best sources, an ability to engage directly with local industry contacts, and an awareness of how the products and services we study are advertised, sold and consumed. These are essential parts of our ability to report incisively on these markets.

        Research Methodology

        Our research methods

        Each Euromonitor International industry report is based on a core set of research techniques:

        Desk research

        With industry events, corporate activity, trends and new product introductions tracked year round by our industry team, desk research provides a starting point for the in-country research programme. Our in-country researchers will access the following sources:

        • National statistics offices governmental and official sources
        • National and international trade press
        • National and international trade associations
        • Industry study groups and other semi-official sources
        • Company financials and annual reports
        • Broker reports
        • Online databases
        • The financial, business and mainstream press

        Accessing sources is only the first step. The ability to interpret and reconcile often conflicting information across multiple sources is a key aspect of the added value we provide.

        Store checks

        Store checks are an integral part of our methods for product industries. Carried out on the ground across a relevant mix of channels, the information gained provides first-hand insights into the products we are researching, specifically:

        • Place: We track products in all relevant channels, selective and mass, store and non-store
        • Product: What are innovations in products, pack sizes and formats?
        • Price: What are brand price variations across channels, how do private label’s prices compare to those of branded goods?
        • Promotion: What are marketing and merchandising trends, offers, discounts and tie-ins?

        Findings are cross-referenced with brand share data analysis. The results, combined with the findings of desk research, provide a strong basis for identifying key areas of questioning to take forward into our trade survey.

        Trade survey

        Interaction with global players at corporate HQ and regional levels is complemented by unique local data and insights from our in-country trade surveys around the world. Through the high profile of the Euromonitor International brand, we are able to talk directly to a wide range of sources and therefore inform our analysis with the knowledge and opinions of the leading operators in the market.

        Trade surveys allow us to:

        • Fill gaps in available published data per company
        • Generate a consensus view of the size, structure and strategic direction of the category
        • Access year-in-progress data where published sources are out of date
        • Evaluate the experts’ views on current trends and market developments

        In building our composite industry view, we engage with a variety of personnel in key players at all points of the supply chain: materials suppliers, manufacturers, distributors, retailers and service operators. We also interview desk research sources: industry associations; study groups; and third party observers from the trade and financial press.

        Our objective is to engage in conversation with trade sources in which we exchange ideas and views on the industry, sharing our work-in-progress findings on supply/demand dynamics and potential. This dialogue enhances both parties’ understanding of the local market. The scope and reach of our trade survey also serves to eliminate bias (intentional and unintentional) from any single source.

        Company analysis

        At a global level, our company research combines our mix of industry interaction and use of secondary sources such as annual accounts, broker reports, financial press and databases. From a data perspective, the aim is to build “top-down” estimates of major players’ total global and regional sales.

        At a country level, in line with local reporting requirements, we access annual accounts, national-specific company databases and local company websites. These are all invaluable sources as we build a view of each domestic player’s size and position within very specific categories of the industry.

        Forecasts

        Data projections and future performance analysis are key elements of Euromonitor International’s market intelligence. Working with historic trends of 15 years or more, a key aspect of our trade survey is to engage industry insider views of the next five years. Will volumes maintain their historic trend? Will price increases or falls of recent years continue, accelerate or slow down? Will increasing demand for one product cannibalise sales of another?

        Forecasts represent many of the essential conclusions we have reached about the current state of the market, how it works and how it behaves under different macro and micro conditions. Our written analysis will state the assumptions and the trade opinion behind whether our predictions are optimistic or pessimistic, so that clients can use our statistical forecasts with confidence.

        Data validation

        All data is subjected to an exhaustive review process, at country, regional and global levels.

        The interpretation and review of sources and data inputs forms a central part of the collaboration between industry teams and country researchers. Numbers are delivered to regional and global offices with an audit trail of sources and calculations to allow for a thorough evaluation of data sense and integrity.

        Upon completion of the country review phase, data is then reviewed on a comparative basis at regional and then at a global level. Comparative checks are carried out on per capita consumption and spending levels, growth rates, patterns of category and subcategory breakdowns and distribution of sales by channel. Top-down estimates are reviewed against bottom-up regional and global market and company sales totals.

        Where marked differences are seen between proximate country markets or ones at similar developmental levels, supplementary research is conducted in the relevant countries to confirm and/or amend those findings. This process ensures international comparability across the database, that consistent category and subcategory definitions have been used and that all data has been correctly tested. We make sure that possible discrepancies between different published sources have been reconciled and that our interpretation of opinion and expectation from each country’s trade sources has been applied to form a coherent international pattern.

        Market analysis

        Another integral part of all our research programmes is that all Euromonitor International data is accompanied by clear written analysis. From a research perspective, this explains and substantiates data findings. From a client perspective, this offers unique insights into local consumption trends, routes to market, brand preferences, channel dynamics and future trends.

        Our country level analysis also provides invaluable input into the ability of our central industry specialist teams to marry local insights with strategic conclusions on the direction of the market regionally and globally.

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