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Country Report

Alcoholic Drinks in Uzbekistan

Feb 2012

Price: US$1,900

About this Report

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Domestic production reaches maturity, while imports present new products

Alcoholic drinks continued to grow at solid rates in terms of both volume and value sales. Major key categories shared in the positive development, whereas some which were historically absent hold strong potential. Domestic production determines the development of the most traditional categories within alcohol drinks, whereas newly presented categories grow due to growing sales of imports.

Consumer shift among categories continues based on various factors

Although all traditionally developed categories hold strong potential of growth and products enjoy stable consumer demand, there are several factors which cause a consumer shift from one category to another. These are, amongst others, ongoing health trends and religious impacts. Indeed, consumers are shifting to lower content alcohol beverages faster than the way around, and this shift impacted category sales in different ways.

Reforms in legislation adversely impact competition, but introduce new ways of marketing

In 2010, the Uzbek Parliament passed several legislative reforms, which worsened the competition landscape for alcohol drink producers. These reforms concerned all alcohol products regardless of alcohol content. On the other hand, such prohibitive measures forced manufacturers to be more innovative and creative in their marketing solutions. Sales of some manufacturers in 2011 already proved successful using such novelties.

Peculiarities of categories determine distribution channel performance

Although product types as well as the competitive landscape change, consumer habits with regard to purchase and consumption remain as before. One category’s products are mostly purchased through the off-trade channel, whereas products in other categories are more popular through on-trade channels. Besides, there is diversity in national consumption behaviour among restaurants, cafés, bars and night-life establishments, which variously affect sales of a particular product. Based on such peculiarities, each product type improved its sales, but through various sales channel.

Solid steady growth projected for alcoholic drinks

Despite legislative limitations placed upon the competitive environment and ongoing health or religious trends, sales are expected to grow at steady and confident rates, mainly due to very low saturation of the market and increasing number of new products and brands. Besides, the population of the country has risen over the decades, generating an even higher number of grown-up consumers. On the other hand, the government continues to support local production of particular categories of alcohol drinks, designed to produce import-substituting and export-oriented products. Overall, based on several positive factors, alcoholic drinks is predicted to generate solid and steady growth.


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Overview

Discover the latest market trends and uncover sources of future market growth for the Alcoholic Drinks industry in Uzbekistan with research from Euromonitor's team of in-country analysts.

Find hidden opportunities in the most current research data available, understand competitive threats with our detailed market analysis, and plan your corporate strategy with our expert qualitative analysis and growth projections.

If you're in the Alcoholic Drinks industry in Uzbekistan, our research will save you time and money while empowering you to make informed, profitable decisions.

When you purchase this report, you also get the data and the content from these category reports in Uzbekistan for free:

The Alcoholic Drinks in Uzbekistan market research report includes:

  • Analysis of key supply-side and demand trends
  • Detailed segmentation of international and local products
  • Historic volumes and values, company and brand market shares
  • Five year forecasts of market trends and market growth
  • Production, imports by origin, exports by destination
  • Robust and transparent market research methodology, conducted in-country

Our market research reports answer questions such as:

  • What is the market size of Alcoholic Drinks in Uzbekistan?
  • What are the major brands in Uzbekistan?
  • Have there been any alcoholic drinks legislative changes over the past 12 months?
  • How is the alcoholic drinks industry affected by the recession?
  • What is consumed more; beer, wine or spirits?
  • What have been the key trends seen in new product developments?
  • Do alcoholic drinks consumers want value for money or added value?

Why buy this report?

  • Gain competitive intelligence about market leaders
  • Track key industry trends, opportunities and threats
  • Inform your marketing, brand, strategy and market development, sales and supply functions

This industry report originates from Passport, our Alcoholic Drinks market research database.

Table of Contents

Table of Contents

Alcoholic Drinks in Uzbekistan - Industry Overview

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Domestic production reaches maturity, while imports present new products

Consumer shift among categories continues based on various factors

Reforms in legislation adversely impact competition, but introduce new ways of marketing

Peculiarities of categories determine distribution channel performance

Solid steady growth projected for alcoholic drinks

MARKET BACKGROUND

Legislation

TAXATION AND DUTY LEVIES

  • Table 1 Taxation and Duty Levies on Alcoholic Drinks 2011
  • Table 2 Typical Wholesaler and Retailer Off-trade Mark-ups by Selected Categories 2011
  • Table 3 Selling Margin of a Typical Beer Brand 2011 - Sarbast Original
  • Table 4 Selling Margin of a Typical Wine Brand 2011 – Gold Bukhara
  • Table 5 Selling Margin of a Typical Spirits Brand 2011 - Ekstra

OPERATING ENVIRONMENT

KEY NEW PRODUCT LAUNCHES

  • Summary 1 Key New Product Developments 2010-2011

MARKET INDICATORS

  • Table 6 Retail Consumer Expenditure on Alcoholic Drinks 2006-2011

MARKET DATA

  • Table 7 Sales of Alcoholic Drinks by Category: Total Volume 2006-2011
  • Table 8 Sales of Alcoholic Drinks by Category: Total Value 2006-2011
  • Table 9 Sales of Alcoholic Drinks by Category: % Total Volume Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 10 Sales of Alcoholic Drinks by Category: % Total Value Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 11 Sales of Alcoholic Drinks by Category by On-trade vs Off-trade Split: Volume 2011
  • Table 12 Sales of Alcoholic Drinks by Category by On-trade vs Off-trade Split: Value 2011
  • Table 13 Sales of Alcoholic Drinks by Category by On-trade vs Off-trade Split: % Volume 2011
  • Table 14 Sales of Alcoholic Drinks by Category by On-trade vs Off-trade Split: % Value 2011
  • Table 15 Company Shares of Alcoholic Drinks by Global Brand Owner 2007-2011
  • Table 16 Off-trade Sales of Alcoholic Drinks by Distribution Format: % Value Analysis 2006-2011
  • Table 17 Off-trade Sales of Alcoholic Drinks by Category and Distribution Format: % Volume Analysis 2011
  • Table 18 Forecast Sales of Alcoholic Drinks by Category: Total Volume 2011-2016
  • Table 19 Forecast Sales of Alcoholic Drinks by Category: Total Value 2011-2016
  • Table 20 Forecast Sales of Alcoholic Drinks by Category: % Total Volume Growth 2011-2016
  • Table 21 Forecast Sales of Alcoholic Drinks by Category: % Total Value Growth 2011-2016

DEFINITIONS

Published data comparisons

Sources

  • Summary 2 Research Sources

Alcoholic Drinks in Uzbekistan - Company Profiles

Agrofirma Mehnat OAO in Alcoholic Drinks (Uzbekistan)

STRATEGIC DIRECTION

KEY FACTS

COMPANY BACKGROUND

PRODUCTION

COMPETITIVE POSITIONING

  • Summary 4 Agrofirma Mehnat OAO: Competitive Position 2010

Legion ShK in Alcoholic Drinks (Uzbekistan)

STRATEGIC DIRECTION

KEY FACTS

INTERNET STRATEGY

COMPANY BACKGROUND

  • Chart 1 Legion ShK: Legion in TSUM, Tashkent city

PRIVATE LABEL

COMPETITIVE POSITIONING

PTK Pulsar in Alcoholic Drinks (Uzbekistan)

STRATEGIC DIRECTION

KEY FACTS

COMPANY BACKGROUND

PRODUCTION

COMPETITIVE POSITIONING

  • Summary 8 PTK Pulsar: Competitive Position 2011

Uzvinprom Holding Co in Alcoholic Drinks (Uzbekistan)

STRATEGIC DIRECTION

KEY FACTS

COMPANY BACKGROUND

PRODUCTION

  • Summary 10 Uzvinprom Holding Company: Production Statistics 2010

COMPETITIVE POSITIONING

Beer in Uzbekistan - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • Beer continued its healthy performance in 2011. The category enjoyed continuous marketing support and strong product developments as well as heavy investments into local manufacturing during the review period. This helped beer achieve stable growth in sales. Marketing campaigns and strong development of the foodservice channel helped it to achieve stable consumer demand. Overall, beer became more of a customary cooling beverage, changing its status from just another alcoholic drink as it was early in the review period.

Production, Imports and Exports

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

  • In 2011, the competitive landscape did not undergo any significant changes except for switches of some imported brands to domestic. These localised brands have acquired some additional shares. Other than that, players and almost all brands retained their competitive positioning from 2010.

PROSPECTS

  • Beer has a positive outlook and is highly expected to continue to perform well with a stable growth rate based on several factors. First, as consumer potential in Uzbekistan continues to grow, many new consumers are expected as the younger generation increases. The beer culture will also improve with the increase of beer-houses and other similar outlets specialised for gatherings and dining out. Besides, the number of outlets broadcasting soccer tournaments, selling beer in extremely large volumes, is also increasing. Based on such positive factors, beer is predicted to generate a total volume CAGR of 3% and a 4% constant value CAGR.

CATEGORY BACKGROUND

Lager price band methodology

  • Summary 11 Lager by Price Band 2011

CATEGORY DATA

  • Table 22 Sales of Beer by Category: Total Volume 2006-2011
  • Table 23 Sales of Beer by Category: Total Value 2006-2011
  • Table 24 Sales of Beer by Category: % Total Volume Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 25 Sales of Beer by Category: % Total Value Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 26 Sales of Beer by On-trade vs Off-trade Split: Volume 2006-2011
  • Table 27 Sales of Beer by On-trade vs Off-trade Split: Value 2006-2011
  • Table 28 Sales of Beer by On-trade vs Off-trade Split: % Volume Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 29 Sales of Beer by On-trade vs Off-trade Split: % Value Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 30 Beer: Production, Imports and Exports: Total Volume 2005-2010
  • Table 31 Company Shares of Beer by National Brand Owner 2007-2011
  • Table 32 Company Shares of Beer by Global Brand Owner 2007-2011
  • Table 33 Brand Shares of Beer 2008-2011
  • Table 34 Forecast Sales of Beer by Category: Total Volume 2011-2016
  • Table 35 Forecast Sales of Beer by Category: Total Value 2011-2016
  • Table 36 Forecast Sales of Beer by Category: % Total Volume Growth 2011-2016
  • Table 37 Forecast Sales of Beer by Category: % Total Value Growth 2011-2016

Cider/Perry in Uzbekistan - Category Analysis

TRENDS

  • Cider/perry is not present in Uzbekistan alcohol drinks.

RTDs/High-Strength Premixes in Uzbekistan - Category Analysis

TRENDS

  • Sales of RTDs/high-strength premixes are negligible in Uzbekistan alcohol drinks.

Spirits in Uzbekistan - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • As one of the most popular alcoholic beverages, spirits accounted for 72% share of total value sales in alcohol drinks in 2011. Although spirits particularly vodka traditionally represents one of the most popular and common alcohol drinks, it is steadily losing competition in volume terms to lower content alcohol beverages, particularly to beer and wine.

Production, Imports and Exports

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

  • In 2011 Asfar JV led sales with 26%, followed by Farovon OOO PTK and Farvab JV each with 20% market share. Afsar continues to lead because of its mid-segment variety, as Medovaya s Limonom, Na Beryozovyh Pochkah, and Baron brands enjoy consumer loyalty. Meanwhile, Farovon OOO PTK’s stability was attributable to the performance of Ekstra and Koronnaya, which in fact continue to lose share.

PROSPECTS

  • Despite increasing popularity of other categories of alcoholic drinks, spirits will indeed enjoy a rather stable, albeit low, rate of growth during the forecast period. This is due to the presence of a significant proportion of consumers who are used to vodka consumption on the one hand, and increasing popularity of other kinds of spirits among the youth on the other. Moreover, religious factors are expected to influence sales to a lesser extent, meaning those who have had major concerns have already given up or switched to lower content alcohol beverages, whereas current consumers will remain loyal to strong alcohol drink consumption.

CATEGORY DATA

  • Table 38 Sales of Spirits by Category: Total Volume 2006-2011
  • Table 39 Sales of Spirits by Category: Total Value 2006-2011
  • Table 40 Sales of Spirits by Category: % Total Volume Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 41 Sales of Spirits by Category: % Total Value Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 42 Sales of Spirits by On-trade vs Off-trade Split: Volume 2006-2011
  • Table 43 Sales of Spirits by On-trade vs Off-trade Split: Value 2006-2011
  • Table 44 Sales of Spirits by On-trade vs Off-trade Split: % Volume Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 45 Sales of Spirits by On-trade vs Off-trade Split: % Value Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 46 Spirits Production, Imports and Exports: Total Volume 2005-2010
  • Table 47 Vodka Production, Imports and Exports: Total Volume 2005-2010
  • Table 48 Company Shares of Spirits by National Brand Owner 2007-2011
  • Table 49 Company Shares of Spirits by Global Brand Owner 2007-2011
  • Table 50 Brand Shares of Spirits 2008-2011
  • Table 51 Forecast Sales of Spirits by Category: Total Volume 2011-2016
  • Table 52 Forecast Sales of Spirits by Category: Total Value 2011-2016
  • Table 53 Forecast Sales of Spirits by Category: % Total Volume Growth 2011-2016
  • Table 54 Forecast Sales of Spirits by Category: % Total Value Growth 2011-2016

Wine in Uzbekistan - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • Wine continues to represent one of the strategic directions of the food industry of Uzbekistan. As such, unlike spirits and beer, wine continues to enjoy government support and subsidies in cultivation and development of wineries. This is another reason why all wine companies are gathered under one umbrella and aligned in implementation of one policy. With its main aim of producing import-substituting and exportable wine products, wine has greatly improved compared to early on in the review period.

Production, Imports and Exports

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

  • Uzvinprom Holding Company as holding company accounts for all of domestic sales and majority of total wine sales. Nevertheless, there is competition between producer companies. Vini Italia Exclusive, with its four popular brands - Classico, Incontro, Tradizione, and Emozione – has performed extremely well in recent years including 2011 which benefits from comparatively recent establishment, modern production technological equipment and improved marketing.

PROSPECTS

  • The trends observed in wine over the review period are expected to remain over the forecast period. Particularly, distribution and events are expected to remain the same, as will the expectation that home consumption will not develop. There is still one trend that is expected to impact sales of wine positively over the forecast period and contribute to sales. It is the health trend that is expected to strengthen across alcoholic drinks and it is expected to attract some consumers from strong alcohol drinks. Overall, wine is projected to display a constant value CAGR of 2% and a 1% total volume CAGR over the forecast period.

CATEGORY DATA

  • Table 55 Sales of Wine by Category: Total Volume 2006-2011
  • Table 56 Sales of Wine by Category: Total Value 2006-2011
  • Table 57 Sales of Wine by Category: % Total Volume Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 58 Sales of Wine by Category: % Total Value Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 59 Sales of Wine by On-trade vs Off-trade Split: Volume 2006-2011
  • Table 60 Sales of Wine by On-trade vs Off-trade Split: Value 2006-2011
  • Table 61 Sales of Wine by On-trade vs Off-trade Split: % Volume Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 62 Sales of Wine by On-trade vs Off-trade Split: % Value Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 63 Wine Production, Imports and Exports: Total Volume 2005-2010
  • Table 64 Forecast Sales of Wine by Category: Total Volume 2011-2016
  • Table 65 Forecast Sales of Wine by Category: Total Value 2011-2016
  • Table 66 Forecast Sales of Wine by Category: % Total Volume Growth 2011-2016
  • Table 67 Forecast Sales of Wine by Category: % Total Value Growth 2011-2016

Segmentation

Segmentation

This market research report includes the following:

  • Alcoholic Drinks
    • Beer
      • Dark Beer
        • Lager
          • Premium Lager
            • Domestic Premium Lager
            • Imported Premium Lager
          • Standard Lager
            • Domestic Standard Lager
            • Imported Standard Lager
          • Economy Lager
            • Domestic Economy Lager
            • Imported Economy Lager
        • Lager by Origin
          • Domestic Lager
            • Domestic Premium Lager
            • Domestic Standard Lager
            • Domestic Economy Lager
          • Imported Lager
            • Imported Premium Lager
            • Imported Standard Lager
            • Imported Economy Lager
        • Low/Non- Alcohol Beer
          • Low Alcohol Beer
          • Non-Alcoholic Beer
        • Stout
      • Cider/Perry
      • RTDs/High-Strength Premixes
        • High-Strength Premixes
        • RTDs
          • Malt-Based RTDs
          • Spirit-Based RTDs
          • Wine-Based RTDs
          • Other RTDs
      • Spirits
        • Brandy and Cognac
          • Brandy
          • Cognac
        • Liqueurs
          • Bitters
          • Cream-Based Liqueurs
          • Other Liqueurs
        • Rum
          • Dark Rum
          • White Rum
        • Tequila (and Mezcal)
        • Whiskies
          • Bourbon/Other US Whiskey
          • Canadian Whisky
          • Irish Whiskey
          • Japanese Whisky
          • Blended Scotch Whisky
            • Blended Malt Scotch Whisky
            • Other Blended Scotch Whisky
          • Single Malt Scotch Whisky
          • Other Whiskies
        • White Spirits
          • Gin
            • English Gin
            • Dutch Gin
          • Vodka
        • Other Spirits
        • Wine
          • Fortified Wine and Vermouth
            • Non-Grape Wine
              • Sparkling Wine
                • Champagne
                • Other Sparkling Wine
              • Still Light Grape Wine
                • Still Red Wine
                • Still Rosé Wine
                • Still White Wine

          Statistics Included

          Statistics Included

          For each category and subcategory you will receive the following data in Excel format:

          From Passport

          • Market sizes
          • Company shares
          • Brand shares
          • Distribution
          • Distribution
          • Off-trade vs on-trade
          • Pricing
          • Products by ingredient
          • Products by ingredient
          • Trade statistics - value
          • Trade statistics - volume

          Market size details:

          • Off-trade volume
          • Off-trade volume % growth
          • Off-trade volume per capita
          • On-trade volume
          • On-trade volume % growth
          • On-trade volume per capita
          • Total volume
          • Total volume % growth
          • Total volume per capita
          • Off-trade value retail selling price % growth
          • Off-trade value retail selling price local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
          • Off-trade value retail selling price per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
          • On-trade value retail selling price % growth
          • On-trade value retail selling price local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
          • On-trade value retail selling price per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
          • Total value retail selling price % growth
          • Total value retail selling price local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
          • Total value retail selling price per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
          • Off-trade value manufacturer selling price % growth
          • Off-trade value manufacturer selling price local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
          • Off-trade value manufacturer selling price per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
          • On-trade value manufacturer selling price % growth
          • On-trade value manufacturer selling price local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
          • On-trade value manufacturer selling price per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
          • Total value manufacturer selling price % growth
          • Total value manufacturer selling price local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
          • Total value manufacturer selling price per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
          • Off-trade rtd volume
          • Off-trade rtd volume % growth
          • Off-trade rtd volume per capita
          • On-trade rtd volume
          • On-trade rtd volume % growth
          • On-trade rtd volume per capita
          • Total rtd volume
          • Total rtd volume % growth
          • Total rtd volume per capita
          • Off-trade volume litres of pure alcohol
          • Off-trade volume litres of pure alcohol % growth
          • Off-trade volume litres of pure alcohol per capita
          • On-trade volume litres of pure alcohol
          • On-trade volume litres of pure alcohol % growth
          • On-trade volume litres of pure alcohol per capita
          • Total volume litres of pure alcohol
          • Total volume litres of pure alcohol % growth
          • Total volume litres of pure alcohol per capita

          Methodology

          Methodology

          Global insight and local knowledge

          With 40 years’ experience of developed and emerging markets, Euromonitor International’s research method is built on a unique combination of specialist industry knowledge and in-country research expertise.

          This approach is what enables us to achieve our goal of building a market consensus view of size, shape and trends across the full distribution universe of each category. We factor in whichever channels are relevant, from large-scale grocery to direct sellers, from discount stores to local mom-and-pop outlets.

          Industry specialists

          Each industry we cover is managed by an Industry Manager and team of Industry Analysts who research and report on their specialist categories all year round.

          Our collaborative approach to research means that these industry teams are in constant dialogue with industry players and opinion formers. The planning of our research programmes reflects latest market trends and industry events. In completing each update project, this provides invaluable input to the testing, review and finalisation of our data.

          The specialist in-house teams bring together findings from all stages of the annual research process. They work closely with in-country analysts, assess and challenge data and exercise final editorial control over the publication of new data and analysis.

          Country and regional analysts

          Our in-country analyst network is managed by country and regional analysts in our offices around the world. Working closely with each in-country team, the regional research management team ensures that all country researchers are well schooled in best practices, from the information collected in store checks, to the dialogue we build in trade surveys. Our country analysts ensure that national reports explain the data trends and provide clear insights into the local market’s dynamics.

          In-country research network

          To deliver fresh insights every year in countries all around the world, we believe the strongest approach is to use analysts on the ground. They bring fluency in local language, physical proximity to the best sources, an ability to engage directly with local industry contacts, and an awareness of how the products and services we study are advertised, sold and consumed. These are essential parts of our ability to report incisively on these markets.

          Research Methodology

          Our research methods

          Each Euromonitor International industry report is based on a core set of research techniques:

          Desk research

          With industry events, corporate activity, trends and new product introductions tracked year round by our industry team, desk research provides a starting point for the in-country research programme. Our in-country researchers will access the following sources:

          • National statistics offices governmental and official sources
          • National and international trade press
          • National and international trade associations
          • Industry study groups and other semi-official sources
          • Company financials and annual reports
          • Broker reports
          • Online databases
          • The financial, business and mainstream press

          Accessing sources is only the first step. The ability to interpret and reconcile often conflicting information across multiple sources is a key aspect of the added value we provide.

          Store checks

          Store checks are an integral part of our methods for product industries. Carried out on the ground across a relevant mix of channels, the information gained provides first-hand insights into the products we are researching, specifically:

          • Place: We track products in all relevant channels, selective and mass, store and non-store
          • Product: What are innovations in products, pack sizes and formats?
          • Price: What are brand price variations across channels, how do private label’s prices compare to those of branded goods?
          • Promotion: What are marketing and merchandising trends, offers, discounts and tie-ins?

          Findings are cross-referenced with brand share data analysis. The results, combined with the findings of desk research, provide a strong basis for identifying key areas of questioning to take forward into our trade survey.

          Trade survey

          Interaction with global players at corporate HQ and regional levels is complemented by unique local data and insights from our in-country trade surveys around the world. Through the high profile of the Euromonitor International brand, we are able to talk directly to a wide range of sources and therefore inform our analysis with the knowledge and opinions of the leading operators in the market.

          Trade surveys allow us to:

          • Fill gaps in available published data per company
          • Generate a consensus view of the size, structure and strategic direction of the category
          • Access year-in-progress data where published sources are out of date
          • Evaluate the experts’ views on current trends and market developments

          In building our composite industry view, we engage with a variety of personnel in key players at all points of the supply chain: materials suppliers, manufacturers, distributors, retailers and service operators. We also interview desk research sources: industry associations; study groups; and third party observers from the trade and financial press.

          Our objective is to engage in conversation with trade sources in which we exchange ideas and views on the industry, sharing our work-in-progress findings on supply/demand dynamics and potential. This dialogue enhances both parties’ understanding of the local market. The scope and reach of our trade survey also serves to eliminate bias (intentional and unintentional) from any single source.

          Company analysis

          At a global level, our company research combines our mix of industry interaction and use of secondary sources such as annual accounts, broker reports, financial press and databases. From a data perspective, the aim is to build “top-down” estimates of major players’ total global and regional sales.

          At a country level, in line with local reporting requirements, we access annual accounts, national-specific company databases and local company websites. These are all invaluable sources as we build a view of each domestic player’s size and position within very specific categories of the industry.

          Forecasts

          Data projections and future performance analysis are key elements of Euromonitor International’s market intelligence. Working with historic trends of 15 years or more, a key aspect of our trade survey is to engage industry insider views of the next five years. Will volumes maintain their historic trend? Will price increases or falls of recent years continue, accelerate or slow down? Will increasing demand for one product cannibalise sales of another?

          Forecasts represent many of the essential conclusions we have reached about the current state of the market, how it works and how it behaves under different macro and micro conditions. Our written analysis will state the assumptions and the trade opinion behind whether our predictions are optimistic or pessimistic, so that clients can use our statistical forecasts with confidence.

          Data validation

          All data is subjected to an exhaustive review process, at country, regional and global levels.

          The interpretation and review of sources and data inputs forms a central part of the collaboration between industry teams and country researchers. Numbers are delivered to regional and global offices with an audit trail of sources and calculations to allow for a thorough evaluation of data sense and integrity.

          Upon completion of the country review phase, data is then reviewed on a comparative basis at regional and then at a global level. Comparative checks are carried out on per capita consumption and spending levels, growth rates, patterns of category and subcategory breakdowns and distribution of sales by channel. Top-down estimates are reviewed against bottom-up regional and global market and company sales totals.

          Where marked differences are seen between proximate country markets or ones at similar developmental levels, supplementary research is conducted in the relevant countries to confirm and/or amend those findings. This process ensures international comparability across the database, that consistent category and subcategory definitions have been used and that all data has been correctly tested. We make sure that possible discrepancies between different published sources have been reconciled and that our interpretation of opinion and expectation from each country’s trade sources has been applied to form a coherent international pattern.

          Market analysis

          Another integral part of all our research programmes is that all Euromonitor International data is accompanied by clear written analysis. From a research perspective, this explains and substantiates data findings. From a client perspective, this offers unique insights into local consumption trends, routes to market, brand preferences, channel dynamics and future trends.

          Our country level analysis also provides invaluable input into the ability of our central industry specialist teams to marry local insights with strategic conclusions on the direction of the market regionally and globally.

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