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Country Report

Baked Goods in Serbia

Jan 2012

Price: US$900

About this Report

About this Report

Samples (FAQs about samples):

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Overview

Discover the latest market trends and uncover sources of future market growth for the Baked Goods industry in Serbia with research from Euromonitor's team of in-country analysts.

Find hidden opportunities in the most current research data available, understand competitive threats with our detailed market analysis, and plan your corporate strategy with our expert qualitative analysis and growth projections.

If you're in the Baked Goods industry in Serbia, our research will save you time and money while empowering you to make informed, profitable decisions.

The Baked Goods in Serbia market research report includes:

  • Analysis of key supply-side and demand trends
  • Detailed segmentation of international and local products
  • Historic volumes and values, company and brand market shares
  • Five year forecasts of market trends and market growth
  • Robust and transparent market research methodology, conducted in-country

Our market research reports answer questions such as:

  • What is the market size of Baked Goods in Serbia?
  • What are the major brands in Serbia?
  • How will increasingly volatile wheat commodity prices impact retail prices and sales performance?
  • What are the market opportunities for high fibre products?
  • Are consumers in developing markets moving from unpackaged/artisanal to packaged/industrial offerings?

Why buy this report?

  • Gain competitive intelligence about market leaders
  • Track key industry trends, opportunities and threats
  • Inform your marketing, brand, strategy and market development, sales and supply functions

This industry report originates from Passport, our Packaged Food market research database.

Sample Analysis

TRENDS

  • The biggest category, bread, drives all trends in baked goods in Serbia, as it is expected to account for 96% of volume sales and 91% of value sales in overall baked goods in 2011. Bread is accepted as the most essential foodstuff amongst nearly all Serbian consumers, and it is rare to find families which do not purchase at least one loaf of bread a day. Unlike bread, pastries are predominantly popular for breakfast in Serbia, but the biggest sales of these are illicit, as they are sold through independent small grocers in Serbian cities, which avoid paying VAT. The most popular breakfast in Serbian cities is still fatty pastries consumed together with regular drinking yogurt – these are an accessible and cheap breakfast solution, which makes them popular amongst employed people and students. Finally, cakes are the least popular baked goods, expected to account for a negligible share of sales in baked goods in Serbia in volume terms in 2011.These are consumed as sweet snacks, predominantly by children.

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

  • The leaders in baked goods in Serbia are the biggest suppliers of bread in the biggest Serbian cities. Beogradska Pekarska Industrija is the biggest supplier of baked goods in the Serbian capital Belgrade (accounting for a 5% share of value sales in 2010), Hleb is the biggest supplier of baked goods in the city of Novi Sad, accounting for a 3% share of sales, and there are other similar companies which are mainly producers of bread, such as Pekarska Industrija Pancevo and Fidelinka. Interestingly, most of the bread in Serbia is still sold through small independent bakers. This is due to the fact that most Serbian consumers prefer to purchase fresh baked goods from local bakeries.

PROSPECTS

  • It is not expected that baked goods in Serbia will develop strongly over the forecast period, as the category is already saturated, especially bread and pastries. In fact, bread is one of rare categories in the Serbian packaged food market which is expected to record a slow decrease in volume terms, due to increasing health awareness amongst some target groups, who will avoid the consumption of bread, and will use substitutes such as breakfast cereals or snack bars as breakfast solutions.

Table of Contents

Table of Contents

Baked Goods in Serbia - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • The biggest category, bread, drives all trends in baked goods in Serbia, as it is expected to account for 96% of volume sales and 91% of value sales in overall baked goods in 2011. Bread is accepted as the most essential foodstuff amongst nearly all Serbian consumers, and it is rare to find families which do not purchase at least one loaf of bread a day. Unlike bread, pastries are predominantly popular for breakfast in Serbia, but the biggest sales of these are illicit, as they are sold through independent small grocers in Serbian cities, which avoid paying VAT. The most popular breakfast in Serbian cities is still fatty pastries consumed together with regular drinking yogurt – these are an accessible and cheap breakfast solution, which makes them popular amongst employed people and students. Finally, cakes are the least popular baked goods, expected to account for a negligible share of sales in baked goods in Serbia in volume terms in 2011.These are consumed as sweet snacks, predominantly by children.

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

  • The leaders in baked goods in Serbia are the biggest suppliers of bread in the biggest Serbian cities. Beogradska Pekarska Industrija is the biggest supplier of baked goods in the Serbian capital Belgrade (accounting for a 5% share of value sales in 2010), Hleb is the biggest supplier of baked goods in the city of Novi Sad, accounting for a 3% share of sales, and there are other similar companies which are mainly producers of bread, such as Pekarska Industrija Pancevo and Fidelinka. Interestingly, most of the bread in Serbia is still sold through small independent bakers. This is due to the fact that most Serbian consumers prefer to purchase fresh baked goods from local bakeries.

PROSPECTS

  • It is not expected that baked goods in Serbia will develop strongly over the forecast period, as the category is already saturated, especially bread and pastries. In fact, bread is one of rare categories in the Serbian packaged food market which is expected to record a slow decrease in volume terms, due to increasing health awareness amongst some target groups, who will avoid the consumption of bread, and will use substitutes such as breakfast cereals or snack bars as breakfast solutions.

CATEGORY DATA

  • Table 1 Sales of Baked Goods by Category: Volume 2006-2011
  • Table 2 Sales of Baked Goods by Category: Value 2006-2011
  • Table 3 Sales of Baked Goods by Category: % Volume Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 4 Sales of Baked Goods by Category: % Value Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 5 Packaged/Industrial Cakes: Single Portion vs Multi-pack % Breakdown by Type 2006-2011
  • Table 6 Baked Goods Company Shares 2006-2010
  • Table 7 Baked Goods Brand Shares 2007-2010
  • Table 8 Sales of Baked Goods by Distribution Format: % Analysis 2006-2011
  • Table 9 Forecast Sales of Baked Goods by Category: Volume 2011-2016
  • Table 10 Forecast Sales of Baked Goods by Category: Value 2011-2016
  • Table 11 Forecast Sales of Baked Goods by Category: % Volume Growth 2011-2016
  • Table 12 Forecast Sales of Baked Goods by Category: % Value Growth 2011-2016

Packaged Food in Serbia - Industry Context

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Economic crisis impacts Serbia in 2009 and 2010

2011 marked by stagnation in most packaged food categories

Packaged food manufacturers continue to suffer

Supermarkets/hypermarkets continue to take sales from other channels

Recovery from the crisis set to be slow

FOODSERVICE – KEY TRENDS AND DEVELOPMENTS

Headlines

Trends

Competitive Landscape

Prospects

Category Data

IMPULSE AND INDULGENCE PRODUCTS – KEY TRENDS AND DEVELOPMENTS

Headlines

Trends

Competitive Landscape

Prospects

Category Data

NUTRITION/STAPLES – KEY TRENDS AND DEVELOPMENTS

Headlines

Trends

Competitive Landscape

Prospects

Category Data

MEAL SOLUTIONS – KEY TRENDS AND DEVELOPMENTS

Headlines

Trends

Competitive Landscape

Prospects

Category Data

MARKET DATA

  • Table 47 Sales of Packaged Food by Category: Volume 2006-2011
  • Table 48 Sales of Packaged Food by Category: Value 2006-2011
  • Table 49 Sales of Packaged Food by Category: % Volume Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 50 Sales of Packaged Food by Category: % Value Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 51 GBO Shares of Packaged Food 2006-2010
  • Table 52 NBO Shares of Packaged Food 2006-2010
  • Table 53 NBO Brand Shares of Packaged Food 2007-2010
  • Table 54 Penetration of Private Label by Category 2006-2011
  • Table 55 Sales of Packaged Food by Distribution Format: % Analysis 2006-2011
  • Table 56 Sales of Packaged Food by Category and Distribution Format: % Analysis 2011
  • Table 57 Forecast Sales of Packaged Food by Category: Volume 2011-2016
  • Table 58 Forecast Sales of Packaged Food by Category: Value 2011-2016
  • Table 59 Forecast Sales of Packaged Food by Category: % Volume Growth 2011-2016
  • Table 60 Forecast Sales of Packaged Food by Category: % Value Growth 2011-2016

SOURCES

  • Summary 1 Research Sources

Segmentation

Segmentation

This market research report includes the following:

  • Baked Goods

Statistics Included

Statistics Included

For each category and subcategory you will receive the following data in Excel format:

From Passport

  • Market sizes
  • Company shares
  • Brand shares
  • Distribution
  • Pricing
  • Products by ingredient
  • Products by ingredient
  • Single portion vs multi-portion

Market size details:

  • Retail volume
  • Retail volume % growth
  • Retail volume per capita
  • Foodservice volume
  • Foodservice volume % growth
  • Foodservice volume per capita
  • Total volume
  • Total volume % growth
  • Total volume per capita
  • Retail value retail selling price % growth
  • Retail value retail selling price local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Retail value retail selling price per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Retail value retail selling price real (constant 2008) prices % growth
  • Retail value retail selling price real (constant 2008) prices local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Retail value retail selling price real (constant 2008) prices per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Retail value manufacturer selling price % growth
  • Retail value manufacturer selling price local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Retail value manufacturer selling price per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Retail value manufacturer selling price real (constant 2008) prices % growth
  • Retail value manufacturer selling price real (constant 2008) prices local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Retail value manufacturer selling price real (constant 2008) prices per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Retail volume (tonnes)
  • Retail volume (tonnes) % growth
  • Retail volume (tonnes) per capita
  • Foodservice volume (tonnes)
  • Foodservice volume (tonnes) % growth
  • Foodservice volume (tonnes) per capita
  • Total volume (tonnes)
  • Total volume (tonnes) % growth
  • Total volume (tonnes) per capita
  • Retail value retail selling price nominal (current) prices % growth
  • Retail value retail selling price nominal (current) prices local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Retail value retail selling price nominal (current) prices per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Retail value manufacturer selling price nominal (current) prices % growth
  • Retail value manufacturer selling price nominal (current) prices local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Retail value manufacturer selling price nominal (current) prices per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY

Methodology

Methodology

Global insight and local knowledge

With 40 years’ experience of developed and emerging markets, Euromonitor International’s research method is built on a unique combination of specialist industry knowledge and in-country research expertise.

This approach is what enables us to achieve our goal of building a market consensus view of size, shape and trends across the full distribution universe of each category. We factor in whichever channels are relevant, from large-scale grocery to direct sellers, from discount stores to local mom-and-pop outlets.

Industry specialists

Each industry we cover is managed by an Industry Manager and team of Industry Analysts who research and report on their specialist categories all year round.

Our collaborative approach to research means that these industry teams are in constant dialogue with industry players and opinion formers. The planning of our research programmes reflects latest market trends and industry events. In completing each update project, this provides invaluable input to the testing, review and finalisation of our data.

The specialist in-house teams bring together findings from all stages of the annual research process. They work closely with in-country analysts, assess and challenge data and exercise final editorial control over the publication of new data and analysis.

Country and regional analysts

Our in-country analyst network is managed by country and regional analysts in our offices around the world. Working closely with each in-country team, the regional research management team ensures that all country researchers are well schooled in best practices, from the information collected in store checks, to the dialogue we build in trade surveys. Our country analysts ensure that national reports explain the data trends and provide clear insights into the local market’s dynamics.

In-country research network

To deliver fresh insights every year in countries all around the world, we believe the strongest approach is to use analysts on the ground. They bring fluency in local language, physical proximity to the best sources, an ability to engage directly with local industry contacts, and an awareness of how the products and services we study are advertised, sold and consumed. These are essential parts of our ability to report incisively on these markets.

Research Methodology

Our research methods

Each Euromonitor International industry report is based on a core set of research techniques:

Desk research

With industry events, corporate activity, trends and new product introductions tracked year round by our industry team, desk research provides a starting point for the in-country research programme. Our in-country researchers will access the following sources:

  • National statistics offices governmental and official sources
  • National and international trade press
  • National and international trade associations
  • Industry study groups and other semi-official sources
  • Company financials and annual reports
  • Broker reports
  • Online databases
  • The financial, business and mainstream press

Accessing sources is only the first step. The ability to interpret and reconcile often conflicting information across multiple sources is a key aspect of the added value we provide.

Store checks

Store checks are an integral part of our methods for product industries. Carried out on the ground across a relevant mix of channels, the information gained provides first-hand insights into the products we are researching, specifically:

  • Place: We track products in all relevant channels, selective and mass, store and non-store
  • Product: What are innovations in products, pack sizes and formats?
  • Price: What are brand price variations across channels, how do private label’s prices compare to those of branded goods?
  • Promotion: What are marketing and merchandising trends, offers, discounts and tie-ins?

Findings are cross-referenced with brand share data analysis. The results, combined with the findings of desk research, provide a strong basis for identifying key areas of questioning to take forward into our trade survey.

Trade survey

Interaction with global players at corporate HQ and regional levels is complemented by unique local data and insights from our in-country trade surveys around the world. Through the high profile of the Euromonitor International brand, we are able to talk directly to a wide range of sources and therefore inform our analysis with the knowledge and opinions of the leading operators in the market.

Trade surveys allow us to:

  • Fill gaps in available published data per company
  • Generate a consensus view of the size, structure and strategic direction of the category
  • Access year-in-progress data where published sources are out of date
  • Evaluate the experts’ views on current trends and market developments

In building our composite industry view, we engage with a variety of personnel in key players at all points of the supply chain: materials suppliers, manufacturers, distributors, retailers and service operators. We also interview desk research sources: industry associations; study groups; and third party observers from the trade and financial press.

Our objective is to engage in conversation with trade sources in which we exchange ideas and views on the industry, sharing our work-in-progress findings on supply/demand dynamics and potential. This dialogue enhances both parties’ understanding of the local market. The scope and reach of our trade survey also serves to eliminate bias (intentional and unintentional) from any single source.

Company analysis

At a global level, our company research combines our mix of industry interaction and use of secondary sources such as annual accounts, broker reports, financial press and databases. From a data perspective, the aim is to build “top-down” estimates of major players’ total global and regional sales.

At a country level, in line with local reporting requirements, we access annual accounts, national-specific company databases and local company websites. These are all invaluable sources as we build a view of each domestic player’s size and position within very specific categories of the industry.

Forecasts

Data projections and future performance analysis are key elements of Euromonitor International’s market intelligence. Working with historic trends of 15 years or more, a key aspect of our trade survey is to engage industry insider views of the next five years. Will volumes maintain their historic trend? Will price increases or falls of recent years continue, accelerate or slow down? Will increasing demand for one product cannibalise sales of another?

Forecasts represent many of the essential conclusions we have reached about the current state of the market, how it works and how it behaves under different macro and micro conditions. Our written analysis will state the assumptions and the trade opinion behind whether our predictions are optimistic or pessimistic, so that clients can use our statistical forecasts with confidence.

Data validation

All data is subjected to an exhaustive review process, at country, regional and global levels.

The interpretation and review of sources and data inputs forms a central part of the collaboration between industry teams and country researchers. Numbers are delivered to regional and global offices with an audit trail of sources and calculations to allow for a thorough evaluation of data sense and integrity.

Upon completion of the country review phase, data is then reviewed on a comparative basis at regional and then at a global level. Comparative checks are carried out on per capita consumption and spending levels, growth rates, patterns of category and subcategory breakdowns and distribution of sales by channel. Top-down estimates are reviewed against bottom-up regional and global market and company sales totals.

Where marked differences are seen between proximate country markets or ones at similar developmental levels, supplementary research is conducted in the relevant countries to confirm and/or amend those findings. This process ensures international comparability across the database, that consistent category and subcategory definitions have been used and that all data has been correctly tested. We make sure that possible discrepancies between different published sources have been reconciled and that our interpretation of opinion and expectation from each country’s trade sources has been applied to form a coherent international pattern.

Market analysis

Another integral part of all our research programmes is that all Euromonitor International data is accompanied by clear written analysis. From a research perspective, this explains and substantiates data findings. From a client perspective, this offers unique insights into local consumption trends, routes to market, brand preferences, channel dynamics and future trends.

Our country level analysis also provides invaluable input into the ability of our central industry specialist teams to marry local insights with strategic conclusions on the direction of the market regionally and globally.

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