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Country Report

Cigarettes in Poland

Jan 2012

Price: US$900

About this Report

About this Report

Samples (FAQs about samples):

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Overview

Discover the latest market trends and uncover sources of future market growth for the Cigarettes industry in Poland with research from Euromonitor's team of in-country analysts.

Find hidden opportunities in the most current research data available, understand competitive threats with our detailed market analysis, and plan your corporate strategy with our expert qualitative analysis and growth projections.

If you're in the Cigarettes industry in Poland, our research will save you time and money while empowering you to make informed, profitable decisions.

The Cigarettes in Poland market research report includes:

  • Analysis of key supply-side and demand trends
  • Detailed segmentation of international and local products
  • Historic volumes and values, company and brand market shares
  • Five year forecasts of market trends and market growth
  • Production, imports, and exports of finished cigarettes
  • Robust and transparent market research methodology, conducted in-country

Our market research reports answer questions such as:

  • What is the market size of Cigarettes in Poland?
  • What are the major brands in Poland?
  • What is the legislative environment like in Poland?
  • What are the rates of cigarette taxation in Poland?
  • Do premium, mid-price or economy cigarettes dominate in Poland?
  • What is the rate of illicit trade in Poland?
  • How many smokers are there in the country?

Why buy this report?

  • Gain competitive intelligence about market leaders
  • Track key industry trends, opportunities and threats
  • Inform your marketing, brand, strategy and market development, sales and supply functions

This industry report originates from Passport, our Tobacco market research database.

Sample Analysis

TRENDS

  • Cigarettes in Poland remain highly influenced by legislation changes. In January 2010 as well as in January 2011 the taxes on cigarettes were again increased by the government. In 2010 the new excise tax included a fixed tax of PLN146.83 per 1,000 sticks (PLN138.50 per 1,000 sticks in 2009) and an ad valorem excise of 31.41% (unchanged from 2009). In 2011 the rates were increased further up to PLN158.36 per 1,000 sticks (fixed tax) with the ad valorem excise staying the same at 31.41%. In addition, since January 2011 the VAT rate was also increased from 22% to 23%. The increasing taxation resulting in higher final prices of cigarettes pushes many consumers to shift towards economy brands as well as still cheaper alternatives like smoking tobacco. However, in many cases it is also fuelling illicit trade as many consumers are unwilling to stop the habit and seek all possible ways to obtain cheaper cigarettes.

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

  • The Polish tobacco industry was one of the first to undergo privatisation. Nearly all companies were privatised between 1995 and 1996. Zaklady Tytoniowe w Lublinie is the last manufacturer waiting to be privatised. In 2009 the French-based Biosyntec announced its plans to purchase a 60% share in the company for circa PLN24 million, however the transaction proved to be unsuccessful as the company did not finalise the payment.

PROSPECTS

  • Over the forecast period, the performance of cigarettes in Poland will remain highly dependent on legislative changes, mostly taxation. In January 2011, the government once again raised the taxes on cigarettes. Specific taxes increased from PLN146.83 to PLN158.36, while ad valorem excise was left unchanged at 31.41%. In addition, the VAT rate was increased from 22% up to 23%. According to EU norms, further increases are expected. This in turn will lead to rising unit prices. On-going increases in retail prices, coupled with the toughening economic conditions, are expected to fuel the shift towards economy cigarette brands, as well as cheaper alternatives such as smoking tobacco. The tendency may also lead to more visible interest in illicit products as well.

Table of Contents

Table of Contents

Cigarettes in Poland - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • Cigarettes in Poland remain highly influenced by legislation changes. In January 2010 as well as in January 2011 the taxes on cigarettes were again increased by the government. In 2010 the new excise tax included a fixed tax of PLN146.83 per 1,000 sticks (PLN138.50 per 1,000 sticks in 2009) and an ad valorem excise of 31.41% (unchanged from 2009). In 2011 the rates were increased further up to PLN158.36 per 1,000 sticks (fixed tax) with the ad valorem excise staying the same at 31.41%. In addition, since January 2011 the VAT rate was also increased from 22% to 23%. The increasing taxation resulting in higher final prices of cigarettes pushes many consumers to shift towards economy brands as well as still cheaper alternatives like smoking tobacco. However, in many cases it is also fuelling illicit trade as many consumers are unwilling to stop the habit and seek all possible ways to obtain cheaper cigarettes.

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

  • The Polish tobacco industry was one of the first to undergo privatisation. Nearly all companies were privatised between 1995 and 1996. Zaklady Tytoniowe w Lublinie is the last manufacturer waiting to be privatised. In 2009 the French-based Biosyntec announced its plans to purchase a 60% share in the company for circa PLN24 million, however the transaction proved to be unsuccessful as the company did not finalise the payment.

NEW PRODUCT DEVELOPMENTS

  • Summary 1 Cigarettes - New Product Launches

DISTRIBUTION

PROSPECTS

  • Over the forecast period, the performance of cigarettes in Poland will remain highly dependent on legislative changes, mostly taxation. In January 2011, the government once again raised the taxes on cigarettes. Specific taxes increased from PLN146.83 to PLN158.36, while ad valorem excise was left unchanged at 31.41%. In addition, the VAT rate was increased from 22% up to 23%. According to EU norms, further increases are expected. This in turn will lead to rising unit prices. On-going increases in retail prices, coupled with the toughening economic conditions, are expected to fuel the shift towards economy cigarette brands, as well as cheaper alternatives such as smoking tobacco. The tendency may also lead to more visible interest in illicit products as well.

CATEGORY BACKGROUND

Cigarettes: Price Bands

  • Summary 2 Cigarette Price Band Definitions

Cigarettes: Menthol/standard

Cigarettes: Filter/non-filter

Cigarettes: Carbon/standard filter

Cigarettes: Filter length

Cigarettes: Slims/superslims vs regular

Cigarettes: Pack size

Cigarettes: Pack type

CATEGORY DATA

  • Table 1 Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: Volume 2005-2010
  • Table 2 Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: Value 2005-2010
  • Table 3 Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: % Volume Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 4 Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: % Value Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 5 Sales of Cigarettes by Price Band: % Volume Breakdown 2005-2010
  • Table 6 Sales of Cigarettes by Standard/Menthol: % Volume Breakdown 2005-2010
  • Table 7 Sales of Cigarettes by Tobacco Type: % Volume Breakdown 2005-2010
  • Table 8 Sales of Cigarettes by Filter Vs Non-filter: % Volume Breakdown 2005-2010
  • Table 9 Sales of Filter Cigarettes by Carbon Vs Non-carbon: % Volume Breakdown 2005-2010
  • Table 10 Sales of Cigarettes by Length: % Volume Breakdown 2005-2010
  • Table 11 Sales of Cigarettes by Regular/Slim: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2010
  • Table 12 Sales of Cigarettes by Pack Size: % Volume Breakdown 2005-2010
  • Table 13 Sales of Cigarettes by Pack Type: % Volume Breakdown 2005-2010
  • Table 14 Cigarettes Company Shares 2006-2010
  • Table 15 Cigarettes Brand Shares 2007-2010
  • Table 16 Sales of Cigarettes by Distribution Format: % Analysis 2005-2010
  • Table 17 Cigarettes: Production, Imports and Exports: Total Volume 2005-2010
  • Table 18 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: Volume 2010-2015
  • Table 19 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: Value 2010-2015
  • Table 20 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: % Volume Growth 2010-2015
  • Table 21 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: % Value Growth 2010-2015
  • Table 22 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Price Band: % Volume Breakdown 2010-2015
  • Table 23 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Standard/Menthol: % Volume Breakdown 2010-2015
  • Table 24 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tobacco Type: % Volume Breakdown 2010-2015
  • Table 25 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Filter Vs Non-filter: % Volume Breakdown 2010-2015
  • Table 26 Forecast Sales of Filter Cigarettes by Carbon Vs Non-carbon: % Volume Breakdown 2010-2015
  • Table 27 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Length: % Volume Breakdown 2010-2015
  • Table 28 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Regular/Slim: % Volume Breakdown 2010-2015
  • Table 29 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Pack Size: % Volume Breakdown 2010-2015
  • Table 30 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Pack Type: % Volume Breakdown 2010-2015

Cigarettes in Poland - Company Profiles

British American Tobacco Polska SA in Tobacco (Poland)

STRATEGIC DIRECTION

KEY FACTS

COMPANY BACKGROUND

PRODUCTION

  • Summary 5 British American Tobacco Polska SA: Production Statistics 2010

COMPETITIVE POSITIONING

  • Summary 6 British American Tobacco Polska SA: Competitive Position 2010

Imperial Tobacco Polska SA in Tobacco (Poland)

STRATEGIC DIRECTION

KEY FACTS

COMPANY BACKGROUND

PRODUCTION

  • Summary 8 Imperial Tobacco Polska SA: Production Statistics 2010

COMPETITIVE POSITIONING

  • Summary 9 Imperial Tobacco Polska SA: Competitive Position 2010

JTI Polska Sp zoo in Tobacco (Poland)

STRATEGIC DIRECTION

KEY FACTS

COMPANY BACKGROUND

PRODUCTION

  • Summary 12 JTI Polska Sp zoo: Production Statistics 2010

COMPETITIVE POSITIONING

  • Summary 13 JTI Polska Sp zoo: Competitive Position 2010

Philip Morris Polska SA in Tobacco (Poland)

STRATEGIC DIRECTION

KEY FACTS

COMPANY BACKGROUND

PRODUCTION

  • Summary 15 Philip Morris Polska SA: Production Statistics 2010

COMPETITIVE POSITIONING

  • Summary 16 Philip Morris Polska SA: Competitive Position 2010

Tobacco in Poland - Industry Context

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Volume sales of cigarettes continue to decline due to regular tax increases

Rising prices of cigarettes lead to growing interest in cheaper alternatives

Multinational players take the leading positions across the tobacco market in Poland

Tobacco specialists proves an increasingly important distribution channel

The cigars and cigarillos environment expected to post the most dynamic volume growth over the forecast period

OPERATING ENVIRONMENT

Legislative overview/ FCTC ratification

  • Summary 17 Legislation Summary at a Glance

EU Directives

Smoking Prevalence

  • Table 31 Smoking Prevalence in Adult Population 2005-2010
  • Table 32 Number of Smokers by Gender 2005-2010

Tar levels

Health warnings

Advertising & Sponsorship

Point-of-sale Display Bans

Smoking in public places

Low Ignition Propensity (LIP) regulation

Electronic cigarettes

Litigation

Death by Cause

  • Table 33 Death by Cause 2005-2010

TAXATION AND PRICING

Duty paid packet marks

Taxation rates

  • Table 34 Taxation and Duty Levies - Cigarettes
  • Table 35 Taxation and Duty Levies - Cigars
  • Table 36 Taxation and Duty Levies – RYO tobacco
  • Table 37 Taxation and Duty Levies – Pipe tobacco

Average cigarette pack price breakdown

  • Table 38 Average Cigarette Pack Price Breakdown: Brand Examples 2010

PRODUCTION/IMPORTS/EXPORTS

  • Table 39 Production/Imports/Exports 2005-2010

Illicit trade in cigarettes

MARKET INDICATORS

  • Table 40 Illicit Trade Estimate of Cigarettes by Volume 2005-2010

MARKET DATA

  • Table 41 Sales of Tobacco by Category: Volume 2005-2010
  • Table 42 Sales of Tobacco by Category: Value 2005-2010
  • Table 43 Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 44 Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 45 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: Volume 2010-2015
  • Table 46 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: Value 2010-2015
  • Table 47 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2010-2015
  • Table 48 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2010-2015

DEFINITIONS

  • Summary 18 Research Sources

Segmentation

Segmentation

This market research report includes the following:

  • Cigarettes
    • High Tar Cigarettes
    • Mid Tar Cigarettes
    • Low Tar Cigarettes
    • Ultra Low Tar Cigarettes

Statistics Included

Statistics Included

For each category and subcategory you will receive the following data in Excel format:

From Passport

  • Market sizes
  • Company shares
  • Brand shares
  • Distribution
  • Cigarettes by blend
  • Cigarettes by carbon filter/non-carbon filter
  • Cigarettes by filtered/unfiltered
  • Cigarettes by length
  • Cigarettes by pack size
  • Cigarettes by pack type
  • Cigarettes by price band
  • Cigarettes by regular/slim
  • Cigarettes by standard/menthol
  • Illicit trade penetration
  • Pricing
  • Products by ingredient
  • Products by ingredient
  • Smoking population - number of adult smokers
  • Smoking prevalence - % of adult population
  • Taxation
  • Trade statistics - volume

Market size details:

  • Retail volume
  • Retail volume % growth
  • Retail volume per capita
  • Retail value retail selling price % growth
  • Retail value retail selling price local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Retail value retail selling price per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Retail value retail selling price real (constant 2008) prices % growth
  • Retail value retail selling price real (constant 2008) prices local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Retail value retail selling price real (constant 2008) prices per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Illicit trade volume
  • Illicit trade volume % growth
  • Illicit trade volume per capita
  • Retail value retail selling price nominal (current) prices % growth
  • Retail value retail selling price nominal (current) prices local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Retail value retail selling price nominal (current) prices per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Retail plus illicit trade
  • Retail plus illicit trade % growth
  • Retail plus illicit trade per capita

Methodology

Methodology

Global insight and local knowledge

With 40 years’ experience of developed and emerging markets, Euromonitor International’s research method is built on a unique combination of specialist industry knowledge and in-country research expertise.

This approach is what enables us to achieve our goal of building a market consensus view of size, shape and trends across the full distribution universe of each category. We factor in whichever channels are relevant, from large-scale grocery to direct sellers, from discount stores to local mom-and-pop outlets.

Industry specialists

Each industry we cover is managed by an Industry Manager and team of Industry Analysts who research and report on their specialist categories all year round.

Our collaborative approach to research means that these industry teams are in constant dialogue with industry players and opinion formers. The planning of our research programmes reflects latest market trends and industry events. In completing each update project, this provides invaluable input to the testing, review and finalisation of our data.

The specialist in-house teams bring together findings from all stages of the annual research process. They work closely with in-country analysts, assess and challenge data and exercise final editorial control over the publication of new data and analysis.

Country and regional analysts

Our in-country analyst network is managed by country and regional analysts in our offices around the world. Working closely with each in-country team, the regional research management team ensures that all country researchers are well schooled in best practices, from the information collected in store checks, to the dialogue we build in trade surveys. Our country analysts ensure that national reports explain the data trends and provide clear insights into the local market’s dynamics.

In-country research network

To deliver fresh insights every year in countries all around the world, we believe the strongest approach is to use analysts on the ground. They bring fluency in local language, physical proximity to the best sources, an ability to engage directly with local industry contacts, and an awareness of how the products and services we study are advertised, sold and consumed. These are essential parts of our ability to report incisively on these markets.

Research Methodology

Our research methods

Each Euromonitor International industry report is based on a core set of research techniques:

Desk research

With industry events, corporate activity, trends and new product introductions tracked year round by our industry team, desk research provides a starting point for the in-country research programme. Our in-country researchers will access the following sources:

  • National statistics offices governmental and official sources
  • National and international trade press
  • National and international trade associations
  • Industry study groups and other semi-official sources
  • Company financials and annual reports
  • Broker reports
  • Online databases
  • The financial, business and mainstream press

Accessing sources is only the first step. The ability to interpret and reconcile often conflicting information across multiple sources is a key aspect of the added value we provide.

Store checks

Store checks are an integral part of our methods for product industries. Carried out on the ground across a relevant mix of channels, the information gained provides first-hand insights into the products we are researching, specifically:

  • Place: We track products in all relevant channels, selective and mass, store and non-store
  • Product: What are innovations in products, pack sizes and formats?
  • Price: What are brand price variations across channels, how do private label’s prices compare to those of branded goods?
  • Promotion: What are marketing and merchandising trends, offers, discounts and tie-ins?

Findings are cross-referenced with brand share data analysis. The results, combined with the findings of desk research, provide a strong basis for identifying key areas of questioning to take forward into our trade survey.

Trade survey

Interaction with global players at corporate HQ and regional levels is complemented by unique local data and insights from our in-country trade surveys around the world. Through the high profile of the Euromonitor International brand, we are able to talk directly to a wide range of sources and therefore inform our analysis with the knowledge and opinions of the leading operators in the market.

Trade surveys allow us to:

  • Fill gaps in available published data per company
  • Generate a consensus view of the size, structure and strategic direction of the category
  • Access year-in-progress data where published sources are out of date
  • Evaluate the experts’ views on current trends and market developments

In building our composite industry view, we engage with a variety of personnel in key players at all points of the supply chain: materials suppliers, manufacturers, distributors, retailers and service operators. We also interview desk research sources: industry associations; study groups; and third party observers from the trade and financial press.

Our objective is to engage in conversation with trade sources in which we exchange ideas and views on the industry, sharing our work-in-progress findings on supply/demand dynamics and potential. This dialogue enhances both parties’ understanding of the local market. The scope and reach of our trade survey also serves to eliminate bias (intentional and unintentional) from any single source.

Company analysis

At a global level, our company research combines our mix of industry interaction and use of secondary sources such as annual accounts, broker reports, financial press and databases. From a data perspective, the aim is to build “top-down” estimates of major players’ total global and regional sales.

At a country level, in line with local reporting requirements, we access annual accounts, national-specific company databases and local company websites. These are all invaluable sources as we build a view of each domestic player’s size and position within very specific categories of the industry.

Forecasts

Data projections and future performance analysis are key elements of Euromonitor International’s market intelligence. Working with historic trends of 15 years or more, a key aspect of our trade survey is to engage industry insider views of the next five years. Will volumes maintain their historic trend? Will price increases or falls of recent years continue, accelerate or slow down? Will increasing demand for one product cannibalise sales of another?

Forecasts represent many of the essential conclusions we have reached about the current state of the market, how it works and how it behaves under different macro and micro conditions. Our written analysis will state the assumptions and the trade opinion behind whether our predictions are optimistic or pessimistic, so that clients can use our statistical forecasts with confidence.

Data validation

All data is subjected to an exhaustive review process, at country, regional and global levels.

The interpretation and review of sources and data inputs forms a central part of the collaboration between industry teams and country researchers. Numbers are delivered to regional and global offices with an audit trail of sources and calculations to allow for a thorough evaluation of data sense and integrity.

Upon completion of the country review phase, data is then reviewed on a comparative basis at regional and then at a global level. Comparative checks are carried out on per capita consumption and spending levels, growth rates, patterns of category and subcategory breakdowns and distribution of sales by channel. Top-down estimates are reviewed against bottom-up regional and global market and company sales totals.

Where marked differences are seen between proximate country markets or ones at similar developmental levels, supplementary research is conducted in the relevant countries to confirm and/or amend those findings. This process ensures international comparability across the database, that consistent category and subcategory definitions have been used and that all data has been correctly tested. We make sure that possible discrepancies between different published sources have been reconciled and that our interpretation of opinion and expectation from each country’s trade sources has been applied to form a coherent international pattern.

Market analysis

Another integral part of all our research programmes is that all Euromonitor International data is accompanied by clear written analysis. From a research perspective, this explains and substantiates data findings. From a client perspective, this offers unique insights into local consumption trends, routes to market, brand preferences, channel dynamics and future trends.

Our country level analysis also provides invaluable input into the ability of our central industry specialist teams to marry local insights with strategic conclusions on the direction of the market regionally and globally.

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