You are here: HomeSolutionsIndustriesConsumer Finance
print my pages

Country Report

Consumer Lending in Germany

Jan 2012

Price: US$900

About this Report

About this Report

Samples (FAQs about samples):

doc_pdf.png Sample Consumer Lending Market Research Report

doc_excel_table.png Sample Consumer Lending Data

Delivery: Files are delivered directly into your account within a few minutes of purchase.

Overview

Discover the latest market trends and uncover sources of future market growth for the Consumer Lending industry in Germany with research from Euromonitor's team of in-country analysts.

Find hidden opportunities in the most current research data available, understand competitive threats with our detailed market analysis, and plan your corporate strategy with our expert qualitative analysis and growth projections.

If you're in the Consumer Lending industry in Germany, our research will save you time and money while empowering you to make informed, profitable decisions.

The Consumer Lending in Germany market research report includes:

  • Analysis of key supply-side and demand trends
  • Historic volumes and values
  • Five year forecasts of market trends and market growth  
  • Robust and transparent market research methodology, conducted in-country

Our market research reports answer questions such as:

  • What is the market size of Consumer Lending in Germany?
  • What are the major trends set to impact the market in Germany?
  • What capacity for consumer debt still exists in the market?
  • What’s the state of credit quality in the market?
  • Has the economic downturn reset the lender competitive landscape?

Why buy this report?

  • Gain competitive intelligence about market leaders
  • Track key industry trends, opportunities and threats
  • Inform your marketing, brand, strategy and market development, sales and supply functions

Euromonitor’s industry reports, including Consumer Lending in Germany, originate from our database within our Consumer Finance market share and market size database, Passport, a platform which analyses Consumer Finance in 46 countries and globally.

Sample Analysis

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Consumer lending fares better in 2011 due to stronger consumer confidence

The German economy has continued to recover in 2011 amid the end of several fiscal stimulus packages that had been imposed in 2009. While German consumers on the whole have maintained their cautious behaviour in terms of purchasing and borrowing, most of them have returned to their pre-crisis mindset. More consumers have been willing to spend money on bigger-ticket purchases such as large household appliances, holidays and home improvements. The upturn in purchases – be it for durables, holidays or home improvements - has not yet been strong enough to lead to a return to growth for gross lending in 2011 because the increase in number of new loans has been coupled with a trend for taking on smaller loans. Nonetheless, gross lending has registered weaker negative growth in 2011 compared to 2010. Meanwhile, outstanding balance has grown faster in 2011 as a still fairly high number of consumers have remained cautious with their repayments.

Mortgages/housing resumes growth after years of decline

After years of decline in the number of new dwellings, the German housing market has started to bounce back and saw some growth over 2010 and 2011. There has been a greater number of building permissions granted, along with a greater number of new dwellings completed from 2010 onwards. Consequently, after years of decline in gross lending and outstanding balance, mortgages/housing clocked positive growth in 2010, with this rate further rising in 2011. The main factors driving this positive trend include low unemployment, growing disposable income and low interest rates on mortgages in 2010/2011. In addition, instability in the global financial system has made consumers sceptical about other assets than real estate. This is also reflected by the rising prices of existing homes. Overall, the net result has been growth in the mortgages/housing market in 2011.

Domestic banks lead but face growing competition

Nearly half of consumer lending remains in the hands of the two banking associations Deutscher Sparkassen- & Giroverband eV (DSGV) and Bundesverband der Deutschen Volksbanken und Raiffeisenbanken eV (BVR). Nonetheless, their grip on the consumer lending market gradually weakened over the review period, with direct banks like Ing-DiBa and Comdirect eroding their shares. Several other banks with quite a strong focus on lending, such as Santander which still had relatively few branches, have also gained share in consumer lending. Furthermore, with the takeover of Postbank by Deutsche Bank in 2010, the number of major commercial banks competing in the consumer lending market has shrunk from four to three, making the competition stiffer for the remaining large banks Deutsche Bank, Commerzbank and HypoVereinsbank.

Education lending and home lending profit from public subsidies

Education lending and home lending are the two categories in consumer lending to show the strongest growth in 2011. This is partly a result of reforms in the education system, respectively the need for refurbishment in many German post-war buildings, but it is also being driven by public subsidies. The public body Kreditanstalt für Wiederaufbau (KfW) grants state-funded education loans with very low interest rates and pays subsidies to house owners who invest in their homes to achieve better energy efficiency. It also grants subsidies for installing renewable energy sources, solar energy panels on rooftops in most cases.

Challenging future expected despite good economic prospects

Consumer lending is expected to see growth over the forecast period in terms of outstanding balance, although gross lending is set to decline. In fact, for mortgages/housing, growth is expected for gross lending and not just outstanding balance due to the shifting perception of property as an asset, particularly in light of uncertainty regarding other assets given the current global economic turmoil. However, for consumer credit, gross lending is expected to continue to shrink, fuelled by an ageing population as well as a continued cautious approach to taking on new credit. Even for consumers obtaining credit, the tendency to borrow only small sums is likely to persist.

Table of Contents

Table of Contents

Consumer Lending in Germany - Industry Overview

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Consumer lending fares better in 2011 due to stronger consumer confidence

Mortgages/housing resumes growth after years of decline

Domestic banks lead but face growing competition

Education lending and home lending profit from public subsidies

Challenging future expected despite good economic prospects

KEY TRENDS AND DEVELOPMENTS

Economic upturn slows decline in gross lending

Direct banks and credit banks continue to gain share

Mortgages/housing bounces back after years of decline

Boom in energy efficiency home refurbishment

Shrinking and ageing population proves problematic for consumer lending

MARKET DATA

  • Table 1 Consumer Lending By Category: Outstanding Balance: Value 2006-2011
  • Table 2 Consumer Lending By Category: Outstanding Balance: % Value Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 3 Consumer Lending By Category: Gross Lending: Value 2006-2011
  • Table 4 Consumer Lending By Category: Gross Lending: % Value Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 5 Consumer Lending: Non-performing Loans 2006-2011
  • Table 6 Mortgages/Housing: Non-performing Loans 2006-2011
  • Table 7 Consumer Credit: Non-performing Loans 2006-2011
  • Table 8 Card Lending: Non-performing Loans 2006-2011
  • Table 9 Forecast Consumer Lending By Category: Outstanding Balance: Value 2011-2016
  • Table 10 Forecast Consumer Lending By Category: Outstanding Balance: % Value Growth 2011-2016
  • Table 11 Forecast Consumer Lending By Category: Gross Lending: Value 2011-2016
  • Table 12 Forecast Consumer Lending By Category: Gross Lending: % Value Growth 2011-2016

DEFINITIONS

  • Summary 1 Research Sources

Consumer Credit in Germany - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • The German economy has continued to recover in 2011 despite the end of several fiscal stimulus packages that had been imposed in 2009. Many Germans have stopped worrying about their jobs, although there is still lingering doubt about the country’s economic prospects due to the ongoing economic problems in many other European countries as well as in the US. There is still the fear that the German economy will be affected by these problems sooner or later. On the whole, the majority of Germans have nonetheless returned to their pre-crisis behaviour, spending money on higher-priced items such as large household appliances, holidays and home improvements.

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

  • The leaders in consumer credit are also Germany’s two leading bank associations, Deutscher Sparkassen- & Giroverband eV (DSGV) and Bundesverband der Deutschen Volksbanken & Raiffeisenbanken (BVR). These players benefit from their large scale and large number of account holders, alongside their well-trusted image, which results in a high level of consumer loyalty. They also benefit from their strength in mortgages/housing, with DSGV notably accounting for over a third of borrowing in mortgages/housing in 2011. Many loyal consumers thus opt for BVR or DSGV when borrowing, particularly in the form of overdrafts within "other" personal lending due to these banks’ dominance in terms of current accounts.

PROSPECTS

  • Consumer credit is expected to see 3% growth over the forecast period in terms of outstanding balance. This growth will be driven by consumer confidence in the economic recovery over the next couple of years. Moreover, while unemployment is low the salaries of many consumers remain low as well, which will put them in a situation whereby they will need to borrow to purchase any high-priced items. The growth of consumer lending, however, will be constrained by the country’s ageing population and the tendency of many consumers to take out only small loans when borrowing. Home lending will see the strongest growth in absolute terms, from an outstanding balance of €147 billion in 2011 to €166 billion in 2016.

CATEGORY DATA

  • Table 13 Consumer Credit By Category: Outstanding Balance: Value 2006-2011
  • Table 14 Consumer Credit By Category: Outstanding Balance: % Value Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 15 Consumer Credit By Category: Gross Lending: Value 2006-2011
  • Table 16 Consumer Credit By Category: Gross Lending: % Value Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 17 Forecast Consumer Credit By Category: Outstanding Balance: Value 2011-2016
  • Table 18 Forecast Consumer Credit By Category: Outstanding Balance: % Value Growth 2011-2016
  • Table 19 Forecast Consumer Credit By Category: Gross Lending: Value 2011-2016
  • Table 20 Forecast Consumer Credit By Category: Gross Lending: % Value Growth 2011-2016

Segmentation

Segmentation

This market research report includes the following:

  • Consumer Lending

Statistics Included

Statistics Included

For each category and subcategory you will receive the following data in Excel format:

From Passport

  • Market sizes
  • Non-performing vs others loans

Market size details:

  • Outstanding balance real (constant 2008) prices % growth
  • Outstanding balance real (constant 2008) prices local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Outstanding balance real (constant 2008) prices per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Gross lending real (constant 2008) prices % growth
  • Gross lending real (constant 2008) prices local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Gross lending real (constant 2008) prices per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Outstanding balance % growth
  • Outstanding balance local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Outstanding balance per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Gross lending % growth
  • Gross lending local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Gross lending per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Outstanding balance nominal (current) prices % growth
  • Outstanding balance nominal (current) prices local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Outstanding balance nominal (current) prices per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Gross lending nominal (current) prices % growth
  • Gross lending nominal (current) prices local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Gross lending nominal (current) prices per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY

Methodology

Methodology

Global insight and local knowledge

With 40 years’ experience of developed and emerging markets, Euromonitor International’s research method is built on a unique combination of specialist industry knowledge and in-country research expertise.

This approach is what enables us to achieve our goal of building a market consensus view of size, shape and trends across the full distribution universe of each category. We factor in whichever channels are relevant, from large-scale grocery to direct sellers, from discount stores to local mom-and-pop outlets.

Industry specialists

Each industry we cover is managed by an Industry Manager and team of Industry Analysts who research and report on their specialist categories all year round.

Our collaborative approach to research means that these industry teams are in constant dialogue with industry players and opinion formers. The planning of our research programmes reflects latest market trends and industry events. In completing each update project, this provides invaluable input to the testing, review and finalisation of our data.

The specialist in-house teams bring together findings from all stages of the annual research process. They work closely with in-country analysts, assess and challenge data and exercise final editorial control over the publication of new data and analysis.

Country and regional analysts

Our in-country analyst network is managed by country and regional analysts in our offices around the world. Working closely with each in-country team, the regional research management team ensures that all country researchers are well schooled in best practices, from the information collected in store checks, to the dialogue we build in trade surveys. Our country analysts ensure that national reports explain the data trends and provide clear insights into the local market’s dynamics.

In-country research network

To deliver fresh insights every year in countries all around the world, we believe the strongest approach is to use analysts on the ground. They bring fluency in local language, physical proximity to the best sources, an ability to engage directly with local industry contacts, and an awareness of how the products and services we study are advertised, sold and consumed. These are essential parts of our ability to report incisively on these markets.

Research Methodology

Our research methods

Each Euromonitor International industry report is based on a core set of research techniques:

Desk research

With industry events, corporate activity, trends and new product introductions tracked year round by our industry team, desk research provides a starting point for the in-country research programme. Our in-country researchers will access the following sources:

  • National statistics offices governmental and official sources
  • National and international trade press
  • National and international trade associations
  • Industry study groups and other semi-official sources
  • Company financials and annual reports
  • Broker reports
  • Online databases
  • The financial, business and mainstream press

Accessing sources is only the first step. The ability to interpret and reconcile often conflicting information across multiple sources is a key aspect of the added value we provide.

Store checks

Store checks are an integral part of our methods for product industries. Carried out on the ground across a relevant mix of channels, the information gained provides first-hand insights into the products we are researching, specifically:

  • Place: We track products in all relevant channels, selective and mass, store and non-store
  • Product: What are innovations in products, pack sizes and formats?
  • Price: What are brand price variations across channels, how do private label’s prices compare to those of branded goods?
  • Promotion: What are marketing and merchandising trends, offers, discounts and tie-ins?

Findings are cross-referenced with brand share data analysis. The results, combined with the findings of desk research, provide a strong basis for identifying key areas of questioning to take forward into our trade survey.

Trade survey

Interaction with global players at corporate HQ and regional levels is complemented by unique local data and insights from our in-country trade surveys around the world. Through the high profile of the Euromonitor International brand, we are able to talk directly to a wide range of sources and therefore inform our analysis with the knowledge and opinions of the leading operators in the market.

Trade surveys allow us to:

  • Fill gaps in available published data per company
  • Generate a consensus view of the size, structure and strategic direction of the category
  • Access year-in-progress data where published sources are out of date
  • Evaluate the experts’ views on current trends and market developments

In building our composite industry view, we engage with a variety of personnel in key players at all points of the supply chain: materials suppliers, manufacturers, distributors, retailers and service operators. We also interview desk research sources: industry associations; study groups; and third party observers from the trade and financial press.

Our objective is to engage in conversation with trade sources in which we exchange ideas and views on the industry, sharing our work-in-progress findings on supply/demand dynamics and potential. This dialogue enhances both parties’ understanding of the local market. The scope and reach of our trade survey also serves to eliminate bias (intentional and unintentional) from any single source.

Company analysis

At a global level, our company research combines our mix of industry interaction and use of secondary sources such as annual accounts, broker reports, financial press and databases. From a data perspective, the aim is to build “top-down” estimates of major players’ total global and regional sales.

At a country level, in line with local reporting requirements, we access annual accounts, national-specific company databases and local company websites. These are all invaluable sources as we build a view of each domestic player’s size and position within very specific categories of the industry.

Forecasts

Data projections and future performance analysis are key elements of Euromonitor International’s market intelligence. Working with historic trends of 15 years or more, a key aspect of our trade survey is to engage industry insider views of the next five years. Will volumes maintain their historic trend? Will price increases or falls of recent years continue, accelerate or slow down? Will increasing demand for one product cannibalise sales of another?

Forecasts represent many of the essential conclusions we have reached about the current state of the market, how it works and how it behaves under different macro and micro conditions. Our written analysis will state the assumptions and the trade opinion behind whether our predictions are optimistic or pessimistic, so that clients can use our statistical forecasts with confidence.

Data validation

All data is subjected to an exhaustive review process, at country, regional and global levels.

The interpretation and review of sources and data inputs forms a central part of the collaboration between industry teams and country researchers. Numbers are delivered to regional and global offices with an audit trail of sources and calculations to allow for a thorough evaluation of data sense and integrity.

Upon completion of the country review phase, data is then reviewed on a comparative basis at regional and then at a global level. Comparative checks are carried out on per capita consumption and spending levels, growth rates, patterns of category and subcategory breakdowns and distribution of sales by channel. Top-down estimates are reviewed against bottom-up regional and global market and company sales totals.

Where marked differences are seen between proximate country markets or ones at similar developmental levels, supplementary research is conducted in the relevant countries to confirm and/or amend those findings. This process ensures international comparability across the database, that consistent category and subcategory definitions have been used and that all data has been correctly tested. We make sure that possible discrepancies between different published sources have been reconciled and that our interpretation of opinion and expectation from each country’s trade sources has been applied to form a coherent international pattern.

Market analysis

Another integral part of all our research programmes is that all Euromonitor International data is accompanied by clear written analysis. From a research perspective, this explains and substantiates data findings. From a client perspective, this offers unique insights into local consumption trends, routes to market, brand preferences, channel dynamics and future trends.

Our country level analysis also provides invaluable input into the ability of our central industry specialist teams to marry local insights with strategic conclusions on the direction of the market regionally and globally.

my pages

Want to find out more about this report?

If you purchase a report that is updated in the next 60 days, we will send you the new edition of the report and the data extract FREE!