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Country Report

Consumer Lending in Greece

Apr 2012

Price: US$900

About this Report

About this Report

Samples (FAQs about samples):

doc_pdf.png Sample Consumer Lending Market Research Report

doc_excel_table.png Sample Consumer Lending Data

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Overview

Discover the latest market trends and uncover sources of future market growth for the Consumer Lending industry in Greece with research from Euromonitor's team of in-country analysts.

Find hidden opportunities in the most current research data available, understand competitive threats with our detailed market analysis, and plan your corporate strategy with our expert qualitative analysis and growth projections.

If you're in the Consumer Lending industry in Greece, our research will save you time and money while empowering you to make informed, profitable decisions.

The Consumer Lending in Greece market research report includes:

  • Analysis of key supply-side and demand trends
  • Historic volumes and values
  • Five year forecasts of market trends and market growth  
  • Robust and transparent market research methodology, conducted in-country

Our market research reports answer questions such as:

  • What is the market size of Consumer Lending in Greece?
  • What are the major trends set to impact the market in Greece?
  • What capacity for consumer debt still exists in the market?
  • What’s the state of credit quality in the market?
  • Has the economic downturn reset the lender competitive landscape?

Why buy this report?

  • Gain competitive intelligence about market leaders
  • Track key industry trends, opportunities and threats
  • Inform your marketing, brand, strategy and market development, sales and supply functions

Euromonitor’s industry reports, including Consumer Lending in Greece, originate from our database within our Consumer Finance market share and market size database, Passport, a platform which analyses Consumer Finance in 46 countries and globally.

Sample Analysis

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Let’s talk about debt

Any conversation or analysis regarding consumer lending in Greece must begin with an honest assessment of the overall debt and borrowing capacity of the state as a whole. The current financial crisis is multifaceted and pervades all aspects of not only the Greek economy, but also the state, the country’s financial institutions and society at large. The ramifications of the negative feedback loop that the crisis has caused are present everywhere. In an effort to avoid default and repay roughly €350 billion in public debt as well reduce a fiscal deficit that stood at 9.6% as of May 2011, the Greek government has imposed some very difficult austerity measures such as substantial decreases in wages and pensions benefits in the hopes of saving billions of euros in annual expenditures. On the revenue side of the equation, Greeks saw their Value-Added-Tax (VAT) increase twice in the previous year, from 19% to 21% and from 21% to 23% by March of 2011.

Lenders reducing credit flow

Loan growth in Greece continued to slow in 2010 from 2009 levels with banks keeping a tight grip on credit as the country’s recession appeared deeper than initially thought. According to data published by the Bank of Greece, 2010 credit expansion decelerated to -4.2% from 2% in 2009. The number of new mortgages being registered remained low and turned slightly negative for 2010.

Negative GDP and employment data way heavily on the Greek consumer

According to industry sources and various mainstream Greek trade press, some lenders are rejecting roughly 60% of loan applications fearing that customers will not be able to pay back the loan due to the economic downturn. According to EMI data, Greek GDP contracted by 4.5% in 2010, worse than the government’s 2.5% 2010 estimate, making it the steepest recession in nearly 30 years. Furthermore, official Bank of Greece data has unemployment reaching 15% as of Q1 2011. Both data points when taken together will help explain the declines in virtually every consumer lending category throughout the rest of our 2011 consumer lending and credit report.

Greek banks adopting Western-style loan work-out programmes to save loans

Bank customers experiencing financial difficulties due to the economic crisis forced Greek lenders to change the terms of credit on €50 billion worth of loans last year in a bid to save amounts from being written off. By extending the loan duration, cutting down monthly payments to interest only and providing refinancing solutions, banks helped provide customers with some relief. The change in loan terms also kept the amounts from being placed on the list of nonperforming loans (NPLs), where payments of interest and capital are at least 90 days late. Data from the Bank of Greece, the country’s central bank, show that a growing number of customers can no longer repay the money owed, as rising jobless numbers result in a drop in household income.

Non-card lending also enters negative territory in 2011

Aside from the mortgages/housing lending, which accounts for roughly 74% of consumer lending outstanding balance, non-card lending also declined by 3% in 2011 from 2010. Of all the components that Euromonitor International considers as falling into the non-card lending category, none declined as much as loans for new automobile purchases. The decline in new auto loans is apparent in both new, gross loans and a decrease in outstanding balances for new automobile lending, specifically.

Table of Contents

Table of Contents

Consumer Lending in Greece - Industry Overview

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Let’s talk about debt

Lenders reducing credit flow

Negative GDP and employment data way heavily on the Greek consumer

Greek banks adopting Western-style loan work-out programmes to save loans

Non-card lending also enters negative territory in 2011

KEY TRENDS AND DEVELOPMENTS

Deceleration in consumer lending forecast to continue

Non-mortgage lending also experiencing severe contraction

Greek banks still struggling with liquidity

Record level of loans adjustments set to continue in 2012

MARKET DATA

  • Table 1 Consumer Lending By Category: Outstanding Balance: Value 2006-2011
  • Table 2 Consumer Lending By Category: Outstanding Balance: % Value Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 3 Consumer Lending By Category: Gross Lending: Value 2006-2011
  • Table 4 Consumer Lending By Category: Gross Lending: % Value Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 5 Consumer Lending: Non-performing Loans 2006-2011
  • Table 6 Mortgages/Housing: Non-performing Loans 2006-2011
  • Table 7 Consumer Credit: Non-performing Loans 2006-2011
  • Table 8 Card Lending: Non-performing Loans 2006-2011
  • Table 9 Forecast Consumer Lending By Category: Outstanding Balance: Value 2011-2016
  • Table 10 Forecast Consumer Lending By Category: Outstanding Balance: % Value Growth 2011-2016
  • Table 11 Forecast Consumer Lending By Category: Gross Lending: Value 2011-2016
  • Table 12 Forecast Consumer Lending By Category: Gross Lending: % Value Growth 2011-2016

Consumer Credit in Greece - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • The single most important factor when it comes to extending consumer credit in virtually any economy around the world is gainful and stable employment. In Greece, unemployment soared to 15.9% in the first quarter of 2011 from 14.2% in the previous quarter and 11.7% in the first three months of 2010, according to data released by the Hellenic Statistical Authority. When consumers do not have jobs or are fearful of losing the jobs they do have, they do not spend, as indicated by the 15% decline in personal credit card value and the 13% decline in the volume of personal credit card transactions.

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

  • The consumer credit landscape continues to be dominated by Greece’s four largest banks: The National Bank of Greece, Eurobank, Alpha Bank and Piraeus Bank. The operating environment for all Greek banks was particularly difficult in 2011, so much so that Greece’s second largest lender, Eurobank, technically did not pass EU bank stress tests (€58 million shortfall) conducted in early July of 2011.

PROSPECTS

  • The most pressing trend, quite literally, is wondering whether Greece will be able to remain solvent. In July 2011, the ECB, IMF, and the EU extended Greece yet another €110 billion rescue package in an attempt to save not only Greece, but the Euro Project as a whole. Greece is currently caught in a vicious cycle where consumers are not spending and banks, in an attempt to bolster their loan portfolios, are not lending to the consumer. The end result is that the Greek economy has ground to halt with GDP expected to contract by another 4% in 2011.

CATEGORY DATA

  • Table 13 Consumer Credit By Category: Outstanding Balance: Value 2006-2011
  • Table 14 Consumer Credit By Category: Outstanding Balance: % Value Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 15 Consumer Credit By Category: Gross Lending: Value 2006-2011
  • Table 16 Consumer Credit By Category: Gross Lending: % Value Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 17 Forecast Consumer Credit By Category: Outstanding Balance: Value 2011-2016
  • Table 18 Forecast Consumer Credit By Category: Outstanding Balance: % Value Growth 2011-2016
  • Table 19 Forecast Consumer Credit By Category: Gross Lending: Value 2011-2016
  • Table 20 Forecast Consumer Credit By Category: Gross Lending: % Value Growth 2011-2016

Segmentation

Segmentation

This market research report includes the following:

  • Consumer Lending

Statistics Included

Statistics Included

For each category and subcategory you will receive the following data in Excel format:

From Passport

  • Market sizes
  • Non-performing vs others loans

Market size details:

  • Outstanding balance real (constant 2008) prices % growth
  • Outstanding balance real (constant 2008) prices local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Outstanding balance real (constant 2008) prices per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Gross lending real (constant 2008) prices % growth
  • Gross lending real (constant 2008) prices local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Gross lending real (constant 2008) prices per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Outstanding balance % growth
  • Outstanding balance local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Outstanding balance per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Gross lending % growth
  • Gross lending local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Gross lending per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Outstanding balance nominal (current) prices % growth
  • Outstanding balance nominal (current) prices local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Outstanding balance nominal (current) prices per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Gross lending nominal (current) prices % growth
  • Gross lending nominal (current) prices local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Gross lending nominal (current) prices per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY

Methodology

Methodology

Global insight and local knowledge

With 40 years’ experience of developed and emerging markets, Euromonitor International’s research method is built on a unique combination of specialist industry knowledge and in-country research expertise.

This approach is what enables us to achieve our goal of building a market consensus view of size, shape and trends across the full distribution universe of each category. We factor in whichever channels are relevant, from large-scale grocery to direct sellers, from discount stores to local mom-and-pop outlets.

Industry specialists

Each industry we cover is managed by an Industry Manager and team of Industry Analysts who research and report on their specialist categories all year round.

Our collaborative approach to research means that these industry teams are in constant dialogue with industry players and opinion formers. The planning of our research programmes reflects latest market trends and industry events. In completing each update project, this provides invaluable input to the testing, review and finalisation of our data.

The specialist in-house teams bring together findings from all stages of the annual research process. They work closely with in-country analysts, assess and challenge data and exercise final editorial control over the publication of new data and analysis.

Country and regional analysts

Our in-country analyst network is managed by country and regional analysts in our offices around the world. Working closely with each in-country team, the regional research management team ensures that all country researchers are well schooled in best practices, from the information collected in store checks, to the dialogue we build in trade surveys. Our country analysts ensure that national reports explain the data trends and provide clear insights into the local market’s dynamics.

In-country research network

To deliver fresh insights every year in countries all around the world, we believe the strongest approach is to use analysts on the ground. They bring fluency in local language, physical proximity to the best sources, an ability to engage directly with local industry contacts, and an awareness of how the products and services we study are advertised, sold and consumed. These are essential parts of our ability to report incisively on these markets.

Research Methodology

Our research methods

Each Euromonitor International industry report is based on a core set of research techniques:

Desk research

With industry events, corporate activity, trends and new product introductions tracked year round by our industry team, desk research provides a starting point for the in-country research programme. Our in-country researchers will access the following sources:

  • National statistics offices governmental and official sources
  • National and international trade press
  • National and international trade associations
  • Industry study groups and other semi-official sources
  • Company financials and annual reports
  • Broker reports
  • Online databases
  • The financial, business and mainstream press

Accessing sources is only the first step. The ability to interpret and reconcile often conflicting information across multiple sources is a key aspect of the added value we provide.

Store checks

Store checks are an integral part of our methods for product industries. Carried out on the ground across a relevant mix of channels, the information gained provides first-hand insights into the products we are researching, specifically:

  • Place: We track products in all relevant channels, selective and mass, store and non-store
  • Product: What are innovations in products, pack sizes and formats?
  • Price: What are brand price variations across channels, how do private label’s prices compare to those of branded goods?
  • Promotion: What are marketing and merchandising trends, offers, discounts and tie-ins?

Findings are cross-referenced with brand share data analysis. The results, combined with the findings of desk research, provide a strong basis for identifying key areas of questioning to take forward into our trade survey.

Trade survey

Interaction with global players at corporate HQ and regional levels is complemented by unique local data and insights from our in-country trade surveys around the world. Through the high profile of the Euromonitor International brand, we are able to talk directly to a wide range of sources and therefore inform our analysis with the knowledge and opinions of the leading operators in the market.

Trade surveys allow us to:

  • Fill gaps in available published data per company
  • Generate a consensus view of the size, structure and strategic direction of the category
  • Access year-in-progress data where published sources are out of date
  • Evaluate the experts’ views on current trends and market developments

In building our composite industry view, we engage with a variety of personnel in key players at all points of the supply chain: materials suppliers, manufacturers, distributors, retailers and service operators. We also interview desk research sources: industry associations; study groups; and third party observers from the trade and financial press.

Our objective is to engage in conversation with trade sources in which we exchange ideas and views on the industry, sharing our work-in-progress findings on supply/demand dynamics and potential. This dialogue enhances both parties’ understanding of the local market. The scope and reach of our trade survey also serves to eliminate bias (intentional and unintentional) from any single source.

Company analysis

At a global level, our company research combines our mix of industry interaction and use of secondary sources such as annual accounts, broker reports, financial press and databases. From a data perspective, the aim is to build “top-down” estimates of major players’ total global and regional sales.

At a country level, in line with local reporting requirements, we access annual accounts, national-specific company databases and local company websites. These are all invaluable sources as we build a view of each domestic player’s size and position within very specific categories of the industry.

Forecasts

Data projections and future performance analysis are key elements of Euromonitor International’s market intelligence. Working with historic trends of 15 years or more, a key aspect of our trade survey is to engage industry insider views of the next five years. Will volumes maintain their historic trend? Will price increases or falls of recent years continue, accelerate or slow down? Will increasing demand for one product cannibalise sales of another?

Forecasts represent many of the essential conclusions we have reached about the current state of the market, how it works and how it behaves under different macro and micro conditions. Our written analysis will state the assumptions and the trade opinion behind whether our predictions are optimistic or pessimistic, so that clients can use our statistical forecasts with confidence.

Data validation

All data is subjected to an exhaustive review process, at country, regional and global levels.

The interpretation and review of sources and data inputs forms a central part of the collaboration between industry teams and country researchers. Numbers are delivered to regional and global offices with an audit trail of sources and calculations to allow for a thorough evaluation of data sense and integrity.

Upon completion of the country review phase, data is then reviewed on a comparative basis at regional and then at a global level. Comparative checks are carried out on per capita consumption and spending levels, growth rates, patterns of category and subcategory breakdowns and distribution of sales by channel. Top-down estimates are reviewed against bottom-up regional and global market and company sales totals.

Where marked differences are seen between proximate country markets or ones at similar developmental levels, supplementary research is conducted in the relevant countries to confirm and/or amend those findings. This process ensures international comparability across the database, that consistent category and subcategory definitions have been used and that all data has been correctly tested. We make sure that possible discrepancies between different published sources have been reconciled and that our interpretation of opinion and expectation from each country’s trade sources has been applied to form a coherent international pattern.

Market analysis

Another integral part of all our research programmes is that all Euromonitor International data is accompanied by clear written analysis. From a research perspective, this explains and substantiates data findings. From a client perspective, this offers unique insights into local consumption trends, routes to market, brand preferences, channel dynamics and future trends.

Our country level analysis also provides invaluable input into the ability of our central industry specialist teams to marry local insights with strategic conclusions on the direction of the market regionally and globally.

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