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Country Report

Consumer Lending in Hong Kong, China

Feb 2012

Price: US$900

About this Report

About this Report

Samples (FAQs about samples):

doc_pdf.png Sample Consumer Lending Market Research Report

doc_excel_table.png Sample Consumer Lending Data

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Overview

Discover the latest market trends and uncover sources of future market growth for the Consumer Lending industry in Hong Kong, China with research from Euromonitor's team of in-country analysts.

Find hidden opportunities in the most current research data available, understand competitive threats with our detailed market analysis, and plan your corporate strategy with our expert qualitative analysis and growth projections.

If you're in the Consumer Lending industry in Hong Kong, China, our research will save you time and money while empowering you to make informed, profitable decisions.

The Consumer Lending in Hong Kong, China market research report includes:

  • Analysis of key supply-side and demand trends
  • Historic volumes and values
  • Five year forecasts of market trends and market growth  
  • Robust and transparent market research methodology, conducted in-country

Our market research reports answer questions such as:

  • What is the market size of Consumer Lending in Hong Kong, China?
  • What are the major trends set to impact the market in Hong Kong, China?
  • What capacity for consumer debt still exists in the market?
  • What’s the state of credit quality in the market?
  • Has the economic downturn reset the lender competitive landscape?

Why buy this report?

  • Gain competitive intelligence about market leaders
  • Track key industry trends, opportunities and threats
  • Inform your marketing, brand, strategy and market development, sales and supply functions

Euromonitor’s industry reports, including Consumer Lending in Hong Kong, China, originate from our database within our Consumer Finance market share and market size database, Passport, a platform which analyses Consumer Finance in 46 countries and globally.

Sample Analysis

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Growth of consumer lending eases on higher lending rates

Benefitting from strong economic rebound and ultra low lending rates, consumer lending in Hong Kong rallied in 2010. However the strong growth momentum is not sustained into 2011. While card lending growth remained healthy, the growth of gross mortgage lending significantly slowed down on the back of higher mortgage rates. In addition, people start to worry that property prices may plunge if the government announces stricter tightening measures or suddenly increases land supply in the near future.

Smaller banks suffer from insufficient deposits

Hong Kong’s banking system saw loan growth start to outpace deposit growth in early-2010 and the gap has further widened since late-2010. Funding costs of banks continued to rise, driven by higher deposit rates and higher interbank fees. Constrained by smaller customer bases and higher reliance on the interbank market, smaller banks are losing their competitive strength in such environment. Compared to larger players, mid-to-small-sized banks are likely to see margin squeeze and lose pricing power.

Price cuts come to an end amid rising funding costs

The boom of consumer lending was partially driven by extremely abundant liquidity in the system in 2009 and 2010. Most lenders were able to launch brutal price competition to acquire new customers. With more liquidity gradually being drained out, banks are forced to pause their hand-to-hand fight and pass on some of the rising funding costs to customers. This will lead to a new round of loan re-pricing, especially in residential mortgages and other personal lending products. Larger banks will be able to grow their loan book faster than average and hence have better pricing advantage of new loans made.

Positive data sharing extended to residential mortgages

Hong Kong introduced the sharing of positive consumer credit data to the market in June 2003, in a bid to control rising personal bankruptcies. In April 2011, although credit quality of personal lending continues to improve, the HKMA decided to extend the positive data sharing database to residential mortgages, helping banks to further improve their risk management system of mortgage lending. However, the Privacy Commissioner for Personal Data (PCPD) raised the concern over personal privacy issues, which may delay the collection and accumulation of the database.

Lenders to adjust consumer lending portfolio to protect margin

Should the liquidity tightening continue, banks need to adopt more nimble strategies to attract customers and protect their interest margin at the same time. Other personal lending, the lending rate of which is higher than mortgage loans, might become the new growth driver of banks’ consumer lending portfolio in the future. In addition, banks might start to acquire customers from other financial institutions, including small-scale finance companies by cross-selling different financial products.

Table of Contents

Table of Contents

Consumer Lending in Hong Kong, China - Industry Overview

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Growth of consumer lending eases on higher lending rates

Smaller banks suffer from insufficient deposits

Price cuts come to an end amid rising funding costs

Positive data sharing extended to residential mortgages

Lenders to adjust consumer lending portfolio to protect margin

KEY TRENDS AND DEVELOPMENTS

Hong Kong property market sees more tightening measures ahead

Positive mortgage data sharing first launched in Hong Kong

APR unlikely to revise downward amid rising funding costs

HIBOR mortgage plans may lose attraction after rate hikes

Government urged to enhance pre-payment and instalment payment plans

MARKET DATA

  • Table 1 Consumer Lending By Category: Outstanding Balance: Value 2006-2011
  • Table 2 Consumer Lending By Category: Outstanding Balance: % Value Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 3 Consumer Lending By Category: Gross Lending: Value 2006-2011
  • Table 4 Consumer Lending By Category: Gross Lending: % Value Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 5 Consumer Lending: Non-performing Loans 2006-2011
  • Table 6 Mortgages/Housing: Non-performing Loans 2006-2011
  • Table 7 Consumer Credit: Non-performing Loans 2006-2011
  • Table 8 Card Lending: Non-performing Loans 2006-2011
  • Table 9 Forecast Consumer Lending By Category: Outstanding Balance: Value 2011-2016
  • Table 10 Forecast Consumer Lending By Category: Outstanding Balance: % Value Growth 2011-2016
  • Table 11 Forecast Consumer Lending By Category: Gross Lending: Value 2011-2016
  • Table 12 Forecast Consumer Lending By Category: Gross Lending: % Value Growth 2011-2016

SOURCES

  • Summary 1 Research Sources

Consumer Credit in Hong Kong, China - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • Hong Kong is a fairly mature financial market and has a very low percentage of unbanked population. Financial institutions’ goals are to tap into more diversified customer bases and increase the number of products used by each customer. During 2009 and 2010 when interest rates remained extremely low, banks managed to attract more new customers and grew their personal lending book. Credit quality remains intact thanks to the healthy economic situation.

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

  • The Hong Kong market is dominated by retail banks. Non-traditional lenders such as finance companies have limited share. According to financial institutions’ 2010 annual reports, HSBC continues to lead Hong Kong’s consumer credit market with nearly 40% market share of outstanding balance. Hang Seng Bank ranked in second position, while Bank of China (Hong Kong) followed closely after. The top three players accounted for nearly 60% of the market.

PROSPECTS

  • Gross lending will grow at a constant value CAGR of 6% while outstanding balance will grow at a constant value CAGR of 5% over the forecast period. Among all the products, card lending and other personal loans will continue to be the most important drivers of consumer credit market in Hong Kong, thanks to their much larger size and healthy growth trend. Auto loans and educational lending are unlikely to have a huge influence on the market given their smaller scale. Durable lending is still facing stiff competition from credit cards hence is unlikely to grow over the forecast period.

CATEGORY DATA

  • Table 13 Consumer Credit By Category: Outstanding Balance: Value 2006-2011
  • Table 14 Consumer Credit By Category: Outstanding Balance: % Value Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 15 Consumer Credit By Category: Gross Lending: Value 2006-2011
  • Table 16 Consumer Credit By Category: Gross Lending: % Value Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 17 Forecast Consumer Credit By Category: Outstanding Balance: Value 2011-2016
  • Table 18 Forecast Consumer Credit By Category: Outstanding Balance: % Value Growth 2011-2016
  • Table 19 Forecast Consumer Credit By Category: Gross Lending: Value 2011-2016
  • Table 20 Forecast Consumer Credit By Category: Gross Lending: % Value Growth 2011-2016

Segmentation

Segmentation

This market research report includes the following:

  • Consumer Lending

Statistics Included

Statistics Included

For each category and subcategory you will receive the following data in Excel format:

From Passport

  • Market sizes
  • Non-performing vs others loans

Market size details:

  • Outstanding balance real (constant 2008) prices % growth
  • Outstanding balance real (constant 2008) prices local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Outstanding balance real (constant 2008) prices per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Gross lending real (constant 2008) prices % growth
  • Gross lending real (constant 2008) prices local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Gross lending real (constant 2008) prices per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Outstanding balance % growth
  • Outstanding balance local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Outstanding balance per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Gross lending % growth
  • Gross lending local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Gross lending per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Outstanding balance nominal (current) prices % growth
  • Outstanding balance nominal (current) prices local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Outstanding balance nominal (current) prices per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Gross lending nominal (current) prices % growth
  • Gross lending nominal (current) prices local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Gross lending nominal (current) prices per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY

Methodology

Methodology

Global insight and local knowledge

With 40 years’ experience of developed and emerging markets, Euromonitor International’s research method is built on a unique combination of specialist industry knowledge and in-country research expertise.

This approach is what enables us to achieve our goal of building a market consensus view of size, shape and trends across the full distribution universe of each category. We factor in whichever channels are relevant, from large-scale grocery to direct sellers, from discount stores to local mom-and-pop outlets.

Industry specialists

Each industry we cover is managed by an Industry Manager and team of Industry Analysts who research and report on their specialist categories all year round.

Our collaborative approach to research means that these industry teams are in constant dialogue with industry players and opinion formers. The planning of our research programmes reflects latest market trends and industry events. In completing each update project, this provides invaluable input to the testing, review and finalisation of our data.

The specialist in-house teams bring together findings from all stages of the annual research process. They work closely with in-country analysts, assess and challenge data and exercise final editorial control over the publication of new data and analysis.

Country and regional analysts

Our in-country analyst network is managed by country and regional analysts in our offices around the world. Working closely with each in-country team, the regional research management team ensures that all country researchers are well schooled in best practices, from the information collected in store checks, to the dialogue we build in trade surveys. Our country analysts ensure that national reports explain the data trends and provide clear insights into the local market’s dynamics.

In-country research network

To deliver fresh insights every year in countries all around the world, we believe the strongest approach is to use analysts on the ground. They bring fluency in local language, physical proximity to the best sources, an ability to engage directly with local industry contacts, and an awareness of how the products and services we study are advertised, sold and consumed. These are essential parts of our ability to report incisively on these markets.

Research Methodology

Our research methods

Each Euromonitor International industry report is based on a core set of research techniques:

Desk research

With industry events, corporate activity, trends and new product introductions tracked year round by our industry team, desk research provides a starting point for the in-country research programme. Our in-country researchers will access the following sources:

  • National statistics offices governmental and official sources
  • National and international trade press
  • National and international trade associations
  • Industry study groups and other semi-official sources
  • Company financials and annual reports
  • Broker reports
  • Online databases
  • The financial, business and mainstream press

Accessing sources is only the first step. The ability to interpret and reconcile often conflicting information across multiple sources is a key aspect of the added value we provide.

Store checks

Store checks are an integral part of our methods for product industries. Carried out on the ground across a relevant mix of channels, the information gained provides first-hand insights into the products we are researching, specifically:

  • Place: We track products in all relevant channels, selective and mass, store and non-store
  • Product: What are innovations in products, pack sizes and formats?
  • Price: What are brand price variations across channels, how do private label’s prices compare to those of branded goods?
  • Promotion: What are marketing and merchandising trends, offers, discounts and tie-ins?

Findings are cross-referenced with brand share data analysis. The results, combined with the findings of desk research, provide a strong basis for identifying key areas of questioning to take forward into our trade survey.

Trade survey

Interaction with global players at corporate HQ and regional levels is complemented by unique local data and insights from our in-country trade surveys around the world. Through the high profile of the Euromonitor International brand, we are able to talk directly to a wide range of sources and therefore inform our analysis with the knowledge and opinions of the leading operators in the market.

Trade surveys allow us to:

  • Fill gaps in available published data per company
  • Generate a consensus view of the size, structure and strategic direction of the category
  • Access year-in-progress data where published sources are out of date
  • Evaluate the experts’ views on current trends and market developments

In building our composite industry view, we engage with a variety of personnel in key players at all points of the supply chain: materials suppliers, manufacturers, distributors, retailers and service operators. We also interview desk research sources: industry associations; study groups; and third party observers from the trade and financial press.

Our objective is to engage in conversation with trade sources in which we exchange ideas and views on the industry, sharing our work-in-progress findings on supply/demand dynamics and potential. This dialogue enhances both parties’ understanding of the local market. The scope and reach of our trade survey also serves to eliminate bias (intentional and unintentional) from any single source.

Company analysis

At a global level, our company research combines our mix of industry interaction and use of secondary sources such as annual accounts, broker reports, financial press and databases. From a data perspective, the aim is to build “top-down” estimates of major players’ total global and regional sales.

At a country level, in line with local reporting requirements, we access annual accounts, national-specific company databases and local company websites. These are all invaluable sources as we build a view of each domestic player’s size and position within very specific categories of the industry.

Forecasts

Data projections and future performance analysis are key elements of Euromonitor International’s market intelligence. Working with historic trends of 15 years or more, a key aspect of our trade survey is to engage industry insider views of the next five years. Will volumes maintain their historic trend? Will price increases or falls of recent years continue, accelerate or slow down? Will increasing demand for one product cannibalise sales of another?

Forecasts represent many of the essential conclusions we have reached about the current state of the market, how it works and how it behaves under different macro and micro conditions. Our written analysis will state the assumptions and the trade opinion behind whether our predictions are optimistic or pessimistic, so that clients can use our statistical forecasts with confidence.

Data validation

All data is subjected to an exhaustive review process, at country, regional and global levels.

The interpretation and review of sources and data inputs forms a central part of the collaboration between industry teams and country researchers. Numbers are delivered to regional and global offices with an audit trail of sources and calculations to allow for a thorough evaluation of data sense and integrity.

Upon completion of the country review phase, data is then reviewed on a comparative basis at regional and then at a global level. Comparative checks are carried out on per capita consumption and spending levels, growth rates, patterns of category and subcategory breakdowns and distribution of sales by channel. Top-down estimates are reviewed against bottom-up regional and global market and company sales totals.

Where marked differences are seen between proximate country markets or ones at similar developmental levels, supplementary research is conducted in the relevant countries to confirm and/or amend those findings. This process ensures international comparability across the database, that consistent category and subcategory definitions have been used and that all data has been correctly tested. We make sure that possible discrepancies between different published sources have been reconciled and that our interpretation of opinion and expectation from each country’s trade sources has been applied to form a coherent international pattern.

Market analysis

Another integral part of all our research programmes is that all Euromonitor International data is accompanied by clear written analysis. From a research perspective, this explains and substantiates data findings. From a client perspective, this offers unique insights into local consumption trends, routes to market, brand preferences, channel dynamics and future trends.

Our country level analysis also provides invaluable input into the ability of our central industry specialist teams to marry local insights with strategic conclusions on the direction of the market regionally and globally.

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