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Country Report

Consumer Lending in Hungary

Oct 2011

Price: $900

About this Report

About this Report

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Overview

Discover the latest market trends and uncover sources of future market growth for the Consumer Lending industry in Hungary with research from Euromonitor's team of in-country analysts.

Find hidden opportunities in the most current research data available, understand competitive threats with our detailed market analysis, and plan your corporate strategy with our expert qualitative analysis and growth projections.

If you're in the Consumer Lending industry in Hungary, our research will save you time and money while empowering you to make informed, profitable decisions.

The Consumer Lending in Hungary market research report includes:

  • Analysis of key supply-side and demand trends
  • Historic volumes and values
  • Five year forecasts of market trends and market growth  
  • Robust and transparent market research methodology, conducted in-country

Our market research reports answer questions such as:

  • What is the market size of Consumer Lending in Hungary?
  • What are the major trends set to impact the market in Hungary?
  • What capacity for consumer debt still exists in the market?
  • What’s the state of credit quality in the market?
  • Has the economic downturn reset the lender competitive landscape?

Why buy this report?

  • Gain competitive intelligence about market leaders
  • Track key industry trends, opportunities and threats
  • Inform your marketing, brand, strategy and market development, sales and supply functions

Euromonitor’s industry reports, including Consumer Lending in Hungary, originate from our database within our Consumer Finance market share and market size database, Passport, a platform which analyses Consumer Finance in 46 countries and globally.

Sample Analysis

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Hungarians take on fewer loans and opt to save instead

The global economic crisis served as a strong warning to Hungarian consumers who started to take on fewer loans in 2009 and to focus on paying back existing debts and saving more money instead. However, according to trade sources, the growth of consumer lending at the end of the review period is potentially misleading as the strong devaluation of the local currency caused the outstanding loan value to increase due to the fact that a large amount of debt in Hungary is foreign currency based. The government has also introduced central measures to put a stop to risky forms of lending, for example it has banned foreign currency mortgages.

Fewer consumers eligible for loans due to high lending rates

Operators in consumer lending raised the cost of lending as a result of the economic crisis due to increased levels of risk and they also raised the minimum prerequisites of granting a loan. Firstly, the conditions of free-purpose mortgage-backed loans became stricter while the cost of un-collaterised consumer loans and credit cards was lowered slightly at the start of 2011. Interest rates remained high, even during Christmas 2010 which is traditionally a promotional period for lenders. Un-collaterised lending rates are the riskiest type of lending for banks and thus operators in banking include this risk in the prices of their loan products.

Banks lend less and adopt a more cautious manner

The growth of consumer lending, especially consumer credit, slowed down considerably during the economic crisis in Hungary. In addition, the approach of both lenders and consumers to loans changed considerably. Consumers became thriftier and started to pay much more careful consideration to acquiring debt, especially due to increases in the rate of unemployment and company bankruptcies. Banks also became much more cautious in selecting potential customers, preferring to lend to existing customers whose risk was easier to assess and only using loan products as a tool to attract affluent new customers.

Zero-interest short-term consumer loans remain popular

Banks have cut back the number of loan promotions, for example zero-interest loans, that they offer but they have also remained aware that such offers attract a considerable number of consumers. Zero-interest short-term loans are popular among consumers even though they are of short duration and monthly payment instalments are high.

The value of “bad” debt increases

The value of “bad” debt, i.e. debts with delays in repayment, increased during the first quarter of 2011, by 27% on the first quarter of 2010. One reason for this was the government’s decision at the end of 2010 to forbid mortgage lenders to evict “bad” debtors from their houses during the winter. The restriction was originally planned until April 2011 but it was prolonged until June 2011. This made “bad” debtors feel more secure and comfortable and even many of those who were able to repay their debts, stopped making their repayments, in the belief that they would receive assistance from the government. The restriction caused much difficulty for lenders with regard to maintaining a healthy level of new loans (both in mortgages/housing and consumer credit), as they could not sell the properties of non-paying customers at auction thus the quality of their portfolios deteriorated.

Table of Contents

Table of Contents

Consumer Lending in Hungary - Industry Overview

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Hungarians take on fewer loans and opt to save instead

Fewer consumers eligible for loans due to high lending rates

Banks lend less and adopt a more cautious manner

Zero-interest short-term consumer loans remain popular

The value of “bad” debt increases

KEY TRENDS AND DEVELOPMENTS

Consumer lending at all-time low

Situation regarding mortgages/housing has strong effect on consumer lending

Lending regulations leave little room for manoeuvre

Hungarians expected to benefit from increased standard of living

MARKET DATA

  • Table 1 Consumer Lending By Category: Outstanding Balance: Value 2006-2011
  • Table 2 Consumer Lending By Category: Outstanding Balance: % Value Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 3 Consumer Lending By Category: Gross Lending: Value 2006-2011
  • Table 4 Consumer Lending By Category: Gross Lending: % Value Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 5 Consumer Lending: Non-performing Loans 2006-2011
  • Table 6 Mortgages/Housing: Non-performing Loans 2006-2011
  • Table 7 Consumer Credit: Non-performing Loans 2006-2011
  • Table 8 Card Lending: Non-performing Loans 2006-2011
  • Table 9 Forecast Consumer Lending By Category: Outstanding Balance: Value 2011-2016
  • Table 10 Forecast Consumer Lending By Category: Outstanding Balance: % Value Growth 2011-2016
  • Table 11 Forecast Consumer Lending By Category: Gross Lending: Value 2011-2016
  • Table 12 Forecast Consumer Lending By Category: Gross Lending: % Value Growth 2011-2016

DEFINITIONS

  • Summary 1 Research Sources

Consumer Credit in Hungary - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • The outstanding balance of consumer credit is expected to grow by 1% in current value terms in 2011 and to be only slightly higher than it was in 2006, indicating that it is still in the process of recovering from the global economic crisis. Home lending has already started to recover from the economic recession and is expected to register current growth of 32% in outstanding balance and of 20% in gross lending in 2011. Education lending is expected to register moderate current value growth of 9% in outstanding balance in 2011 while current value growth of gross lending is expected to slow down. After significant drop in review period auto lending started slow recovery with 10% gross lending growth in 2011. However, outstanding balance is expected to remain in recession with current growth of -13% in 2011. Card lending is expected to register current value growth of -22% in outstanding balance, due to more repayment than acquisition of new loans, and growth of 6% in gross lending.

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

  • The largest players in consumer credit in Hungary are Magyar Cetelem Bank Zrt, Budapest Bank Rt and OTP Bank Group. The withdrawal of Credigen Bank and HSBC from consumer credit in 2009 and in 2010 indicated that consumer credit in Hungary is not large enough to accommodate so many large players. In addition it became apparent that maintaining a consumer credit portfolio with a high ratio of zero-interest loans outstanding is not sustainable. This was similar to the strategy that Credigen Bank was pursuing.

PROSPECTS

  • The outstanding balance of consumer credit is expected to grow by a constant value CAGR of 7% over the forecast period while gross lending is expected to grow by a constant value CAGR of 10%. In terms of outstanding balance, card lending is expected to register the highest growth over the forecast period at a constant value CAGR of 12% followed by home lending, at a CAGR of 10%. In terms of gross lending, auto lending and other personal lending expected to register the strongest growth over the forecast period, at a constant value CAGR of 17%.

CATEGORY DATA

  • Table 13 Consumer Credit By Category: Outstanding Balance: Value 2006-2011
  • Table 14 Consumer Credit By Category: Outstanding Balance: % Value Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 15 Consumer Credit By Category: Gross Lending: Value 2006-2011
  • Table 16 Consumer Credit By Category: Gross Lending: % Value Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 17 Forecast Consumer Credit By Category: Outstanding Balance: Value 2011-2016
  • Table 18 Forecast Consumer Credit By Category: Outstanding Balance: % Value Growth 2011-2016
  • Table 19 Forecast Consumer Credit By Category: Gross Lending: Value 2011-2016
  • Table 20 Forecast Consumer Credit By Category: Gross Lending: % Value Growth 2011-2016

Segmentation

Segmentation

This market research report includes the following:

  • Consumer Lending

Statistics Included

Statistics Included

For each category and subcategory you will receive the following data in Excel format:

From Passport

  • Market sizes
  • Non-performing vs others loans

Market size details:

  • Outstanding balance real (constant 2008) prices % growth
  • Outstanding balance real (constant 2008) prices local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Outstanding balance real (constant 2008) prices per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Gross lending real (constant 2008) prices % growth
  • Gross lending real (constant 2008) prices local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Gross lending real (constant 2008) prices per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Outstanding balance % growth
  • Outstanding balance local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Outstanding balance per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Gross lending % growth
  • Gross lending local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Gross lending per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Outstanding balance nominal (current) prices % growth
  • Outstanding balance nominal (current) prices local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Outstanding balance nominal (current) prices per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Gross lending nominal (current) prices % growth
  • Gross lending nominal (current) prices local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Gross lending nominal (current) prices per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY

Methodology

Methodology

Global insight and local knowledge

With 40 years’ experience of developed and emerging markets, Euromonitor International’s research method is built on a unique combination of specialist industry knowledge and in-country research expertise.

This approach is what enables us to achieve our goal of building a market consensus view of size, shape and trends across the full distribution universe of each category. We factor in whichever channels are relevant, from large-scale grocery to direct sellers, from discount stores to local mom-and-pop outlets.

Industry specialists

Each industry we cover is managed by an Industry Manager and team of Industry Analysts who research and report on their specialist categories all year round.

Our collaborative approach to research means that these industry teams are in constant dialogue with industry players and opinion formers. The planning of our research programmes reflects latest market trends and industry events. In completing each update project, this provides invaluable input to the testing, review and finalisation of our data.

The specialist in-house teams bring together findings from all stages of the annual research process. They work closely with in-country analysts, assess and challenge data and exercise final editorial control over the publication of new data and analysis.

Country and regional analysts

Our in-country analyst network is managed by country and regional analysts in our offices around the world. Working closely with each in-country team, the regional research management team ensures that all country researchers are well schooled in best practices, from the information collected in store checks, to the dialogue we build in trade surveys. Our country analysts ensure that national reports explain the data trends and provide clear insights into the local market’s dynamics.

In-country research network

To deliver fresh insights every year in countries all around the world, we believe the strongest approach is to use analysts on the ground. They bring fluency in local language, physical proximity to the best sources, an ability to engage directly with local industry contacts, and an awareness of how the products and services we study are advertised, sold and consumed. These are essential parts of our ability to report incisively on these markets.

Research Methodology

Our research methods

Each Euromonitor International industry report is based on a core set of research techniques:

Desk research

With industry events, corporate activity, trends and new product introductions tracked year round by our industry team, desk research provides a starting point for the in-country research programme. Our in-country researchers will access the following sources:

  • National statistics offices governmental and official sources
  • National and international trade press
  • National and international trade associations
  • Industry study groups and other semi-official sources
  • Company financials and annual reports
  • Broker reports
  • Online databases
  • The financial, business and mainstream press

Accessing sources is only the first step. The ability to interpret and reconcile often conflicting information across multiple sources is a key aspect of the added value we provide.

Store checks

Store checks are an integral part of our methods for product industries. Carried out on the ground across a relevant mix of channels, the information gained provides first-hand insights into the products we are researching, specifically:

  • Place: We track products in all relevant channels, selective and mass, store and non-store
  • Product: What are innovations in products, pack sizes and formats?
  • Price: What are brand price variations across channels, how do private label’s prices compare to those of branded goods?
  • Promotion: What are marketing and merchandising trends, offers, discounts and tie-ins?

Findings are cross-referenced with brand share data analysis. The results, combined with the findings of desk research, provide a strong basis for identifying key areas of questioning to take forward into our trade survey.

Trade survey

Interaction with global players at corporate HQ and regional levels is complemented by unique local data and insights from our in-country trade surveys around the world. Through the high profile of the Euromonitor International brand, we are able to talk directly to a wide range of sources and therefore inform our analysis with the knowledge and opinions of the leading operators in the market.

Trade surveys allow us to:

  • Fill gaps in available published data per company
  • Generate a consensus view of the size, structure and strategic direction of the category
  • Access year-in-progress data where published sources are out of date
  • Evaluate the experts’ views on current trends and market developments

In building our composite industry view, we engage with a variety of personnel in key players at all points of the supply chain: materials suppliers, manufacturers, distributors, retailers and service operators. We also interview desk research sources: industry associations; study groups; and third party observers from the trade and financial press.

Our objective is to engage in conversation with trade sources in which we exchange ideas and views on the industry, sharing our work-in-progress findings on supply/demand dynamics and potential. This dialogue enhances both parties’ understanding of the local market. The scope and reach of our trade survey also serves to eliminate bias (intentional and unintentional) from any single source.

Company analysis

At a global level, our company research combines our mix of industry interaction and use of secondary sources such as annual accounts, broker reports, financial press and databases. From a data perspective, the aim is to build “top-down” estimates of major players’ total global and regional sales.

At a country level, in line with local reporting requirements, we access annual accounts, national-specific company databases and local company websites. These are all invaluable sources as we build a view of each domestic player’s size and position within very specific categories of the industry.

Forecasts

Data projections and future performance analysis are key elements of Euromonitor International’s market intelligence. Working with historic trends of 15 years or more, a key aspect of our trade survey is to engage industry insider views of the next five years. Will volumes maintain their historic trend? Will price increases or falls of recent years continue, accelerate or slow down? Will increasing demand for one product cannibalise sales of another?

Forecasts represent many of the essential conclusions we have reached about the current state of the market, how it works and how it behaves under different macro and micro conditions. Our written analysis will state the assumptions and the trade opinion behind whether our predictions are optimistic or pessimistic, so that clients can use our statistical forecasts with confidence.

Data validation

All data is subjected to an exhaustive review process, at country, regional and global levels.

The interpretation and review of sources and data inputs forms a central part of the collaboration between industry teams and country researchers. Numbers are delivered to regional and global offices with an audit trail of sources and calculations to allow for a thorough evaluation of data sense and integrity.

Upon completion of the country review phase, data is then reviewed on a comparative basis at regional and then at a global level. Comparative checks are carried out on per capita consumption and spending levels, growth rates, patterns of category and subcategory breakdowns and distribution of sales by channel. Top-down estimates are reviewed against bottom-up regional and global market and company sales totals.

Where marked differences are seen between proximate country markets or ones at similar developmental levels, supplementary research is conducted in the relevant countries to confirm and/or amend those findings. This process ensures international comparability across the database, that consistent category and subcategory definitions have been used and that all data has been correctly tested. We make sure that possible discrepancies between different published sources have been reconciled and that our interpretation of opinion and expectation from each country’s trade sources has been applied to form a coherent international pattern.

Market analysis

Another integral part of all our research programmes is that all Euromonitor International data is accompanied by clear written analysis. From a research perspective, this explains and substantiates data findings. From a client perspective, this offers unique insights into local consumption trends, routes to market, brand preferences, channel dynamics and future trends.

Our country level analysis also provides invaluable input into the ability of our central industry specialist teams to marry local insights with strategic conclusions on the direction of the market regionally and globally.

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