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Country Report

Consumer Lending in the Netherlands

Feb 2011

Price: $900

About this Report

About this Report

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Overview

Discover the latest market trends and uncover sources of future market growth for the Consumer Lending industry in Netherlands with research from Euromonitor's team of in-country analysts.

Find hidden opportunities in the most current research data available, understand competitive threats with our detailed market analysis, and plan your corporate strategy with our expert qualitative analysis and growth projections.

If you're in the Consumer Lending industry in Netherlands, our research will save you time and money while empowering you to make informed, profitable decisions.

The Consumer Lending in Netherlands market research report includes:

  • Analysis of key supply-side and demand trends
  • Historic volumes and values
  • Five year forecasts of market trends and market growth  
  • Robust and transparent market research methodology, conducted in-country

Our market research reports answer questions such as:

  • What is the market size of Consumer Lending in Netherlands?
  • What are the major trends set to impact the market in Netherlands?
  • What capacity for consumer debt still exists in the market?
  • What’s the state of credit quality in the market?
  • Has the economic downturn reset the lender competitive landscape?

Why buy this report?

  • Gain competitive intelligence about market leaders
  • Track key industry trends, opportunities and threats
  • Inform your marketing, brand, strategy and market development, sales and supply functions

Euromonitor’s industry reports, including Consumer Lending in Netherlands, originate from our database within our Consumer Finance market share and market size database, Passport, a platform which analyses Consumer Finance in 46 countries and globally.

Sample Analysis

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Signs of economic recovery taken with caution

Although there were signs of economic recovery in 2010, there are still major concerns regarding rising unemployment. However, despite the fact that unemployment was slightly higher in the first quarter of 2010 compared to the same period in 2009, for the first time since 2008 the CBS reported a reduction in unemployment in the second quarter of 2010. This improvement can be attributed to the weaker Euro, which makes exports cheaper, something that the Netherlands is heavily dependent upon. The Central Planning Bureau (CPB) is therefore confident that the recovery is not temporary. Nonetheless, after the general election in June 2010, which resulted in a significant shift in the fortunes of most parties, all possible coalition partners agree on the fact that major cutbacks are still inevitable. For this reason, the CPB adjusted its forecast of the Dutch economy in 2011 downwards. Despite the overall improvement in the economy in 2010, there are still fears that the recovery will only be temporary and the consumer lending environment remains challenging.

Withdrawal of mortgage interest income tax rebate under consideration

Dutch law provides the opportunity to deduct paid interest on mortgages from income tax. This policy has helped to boost the number of house owners in the country and the government further subsidises house ownership with financial guarantees. For a young family paying EUR1,000 interest on mortgage per month, the rebate scheme could result in a refund from the tax office of up to EUR500 which the family could apply to have deposited in their bank account each month. In the mid-2000s, the government changed the scheme so that it would no longer apply to second homes, only for first homes. However, as a result of the current recession, the government is now considering abolishing all mortgage interest rebates. The likelihood of such a change occurring during the forecast period remains 50/50. However, if such a change were made it would obviously have a huge impact on house sales.

Major local banks remain key consumer lending players

Dutch consumers typically turn to banks for loans and larger Dutch banks dominated consumer lending throughout the review period. The largest banks in the country are ABN Amro, ING, and Rabobank. However, a small number of consumers borrow money from insurance companies and, increasingly, chained retailers such as Kruidvat. In addition, despite their high interest rates, during the recession flash-credit providers increased in popularity due to the ease of receiving loans from such players. However, with the economy showing signs of recovery in 2010, more consumers are moving away from these flash-credit providers.

Sluggish future for consumer lending

Consumer lending players are expected to face significant challenges over the forecast period as consumers try to recover from the recession. Gross lending, which was hit hard between 2007 and 2010, is set to continue to decline until 2012 but may start to increase again from 2013 onwards. However, outstanding balance will continue to grow throughout the forecast period, with a slight decline only expected in 2015 when the impact of the drop in gross lending during the review period is expected to be felt. Card lending, which performed well prior to the recession, is expected to take much longer to recover due to lingering consumer fears over high rates.

Table of Contents

Table of Contents

Consumer Lending in the Netherlands - Industry Overview

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Signs of economic recovery taken with caution

Withdrawal of mortgage interest income tax rebate under consideration

Major local banks remain key consumer lending players

Sluggish future for consumer lending

KEY TRENDS AND DEVELOPMENTS

New mind-set towards lending

Card lending hit by economic downturn

Introduction of stricter lending practices

Possible withdrawal of mortgage rebates

Increasing diversity in loan types and players

MARKET INDICATORS

  • Table 1 Consumer Lending By Category: Outstanding Balance: Value 2005-2010
  • Table 2 Consumer Lending By Category: Outstanding Balance: % Value Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 3 Consumer Lending By Category: Gross Lending: Value 2005-2010
  • Table 4 Consumer Lending By Category: Gross Lending: % Value Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 5 Consumer Lending: Non-performing Loans 2005-2010
  • Table 6 Mortgages/Housing: Non-performing Loans 2005-2010
  • Table 7 Consumer Credit: Non-performing Loans 2005-2010
  • Table 8 Card Lending: Non-performing Loans 2005-2010
  • Table 9 Forecast Consumer Lending By Category: Outstanding Balance: Value 2010-2015
  • Table 10 Forecast Consumer Lending By Category: Outstanding Balance: % Value Growth 2010-2015
  • Table 11 Forecast Consumer Lending By Category: Gross Lending: Value 2010-2015
  • Table 12 Forecast Consumer Lending By Category: Gross Lending: % Value Growth 2010-2015

DEFINITIONS

Mortgages/housing

Consumer credit

Auto lending

Card lending

Home lending

Durables lending

Education lending

Other personal lending

Non-performing

Gross lending

Outstanding balance

Sources

  • Summary 1 Research Sources

Consumer Credit in the Netherlands - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • In the Netherlands, there are growing concerns over unemployment which continued to rise during the first quarter of 2010 despite signs that the economy was starting to recover. CPB, the Dutch Central Planning Bureau, expects the number of unemployed to reach 675,000 at the end of 2010 - nearly 9% of people of working age in the country. Rising unemployment and bank over cautiousness have severely affected the granting of credit in the country, with consumer lending dropping by more than 11% in 2010. Another reason for this decline is the fact that people have started to use their savings to meet their financial demands.

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

  • The leading lenders in the Netherlands are the major retail banks - primarily ABN AMRO, ING, and Rabobank. According to the DNB, nearly two-thirds of people borrowing money do so through banks. Around 15% of people borrow money through finance companies, predominantly for the purchase of large products such as cars and boats.

PROSPECTS

  • The major concern regarding the recovery of the Dutch economy is the high rate of unemployment, which is expected to further increase to 9% by the end of 2010 – a development that will significantly hamper the rebuilding of relations between lenders and borrowers in the country and which means that a growing number of people will seek help from the government in order to overcome their financial difficulties since banks are prohibited from exceeding current, income related, lending limits. The Netherlands has always operated a generous welfare state system. The maximum unemployment benefit that someone can receive, including extra allowances, is around EUR1,500 per month whilst the average income in the country, according to the CPB, is around EUR2,700 per month. If only 9% of people of working age are currently in employment and working to pay for such generous benefits, the government may have to take action, especially in-light of the country’s huge deficit.

CATEGORY DATA

  • Table 13 Consumer Credit By Category: Outstanding Balance: Value 2005-2010
  • Table 14 Consumer Credit By Category: Outstanding Balance: % Value Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 15 Consumer Credit By Category: Gross Lending: Value 2005-2010
  • Table 16 Consumer Credit By Category: Gross Lending: % Value Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 17 Forecast Consumer Credit By Category: Outstanding Balance: Value 2010-2015
  • Table 18 Forecast Consumer Credit By Category: Outstanding Balance: % Value Growth 2010-2015
  • Table 19 Forecast Consumer Credit By Category: Gross Lending: Value 2010-2015
  • Table 20 Forecast Consumer Credit By Category: Gross Lending: % Value Growth 2010-2015

Segmentation

Segmentation

This market research report includes the following:

  • Consumer Lending
    • Consumer Credit
      • Card Lending
      • Auto Lending
      • Durables Lending
      • Education Lending
      • Home Lending
      • Other Personal Lending
    • Mortgages/Housing

Statistics Included

Statistics Included

For each category and subcategory you will receive the following data in Excel format:

From Passport

  • Market Sizes
  • Non-performing vs Others loans

Market size details:

  • Outstanding Balance real (constant 2008) Prices % growth
  • Outstanding Balance real (constant 2008) Prices local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Outstanding Balance real (constant 2008) Prices per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Gross Lending real (constant 2008) Prices % growth
  • Gross Lending real (constant 2008) Prices local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Gross Lending real (constant 2008) Prices per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Outstanding Balance % growth
  • Outstanding Balance local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Outstanding Balance per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Gross Lending % growth
  • Gross Lending local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Gross Lending per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Outstanding Balance Nominal (Current) Prices % growth
  • Outstanding Balance Nominal (Current) Prices local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Outstanding Balance Nominal (Current) Prices per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Gross Lending Nominal (Current) Prices % growth
  • Gross Lending Nominal (Current) Prices local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Gross Lending Nominal (Current) Prices per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY

Methodology

Methodology

Global insight and local knowledge

With 40 years’ experience of developed and emerging markets, Euromonitor International’s research method is built on a unique combination of specialist industry knowledge and in-country research expertise.

This approach is what enables us to achieve our goal of building a market consensus view of size, shape and trends across the full distribution universe of each category. We factor in whichever channels are relevant, from large-scale grocery to direct sellers, from discount stores to local mom-and-pop outlets.

Industry specialists

Each industry we cover is managed by an Industry Manager and team of Industry Analysts who research and report on their specialist categories all year round.

Our collaborative approach to research means that these industry teams are in constant dialogue with industry players and opinion formers. The planning of our research programmes reflects latest market trends and industry events. In completing each update project, this provides invaluable input to the testing, review and finalisation of our data.

The specialist in-house teams bring together findings from all stages of the annual research process. They work closely with in-country analysts, assess and challenge data and exercise final editorial control over the publication of new data and analysis.

Country and regional analysts

Our in-country analyst network is managed by country and regional analysts in our offices around the world. Working closely with each in-country team, the regional research management team ensures that all country researchers are well schooled in best practices, from the information collected in store checks, to the dialogue we build in trade surveys. Our country analysts ensure that national reports explain the data trends and provide clear insights into the local market’s dynamics.

In-country research network

To deliver fresh insights every year in countries all around the world, we believe the strongest approach is to use analysts on the ground. They bring fluency in local language, physical proximity to the best sources, an ability to engage directly with local industry contacts, and an awareness of how the products and services we study are advertised, sold and consumed. These are essential parts of our ability to report incisively on these markets.

Research Methodology

Our research methods

Each Euromonitor International industry report is based on a core set of research techniques:

Desk research

With industry events, corporate activity, trends and new product introductions tracked year round by our industry team, desk research provides a starting point for the in-country research programme. Our in-country researchers will access the following sources:

  • National statistics offices governmental and official sources
  • National and international trade press
  • National and international trade associations
  • Industry study groups and other semi-official sources
  • Company financials and annual reports
  • Broker reports
  • Online databases
  • The financial, business and mainstream press

Accessing sources is only the first step. The ability to interpret and reconcile often conflicting information across multiple sources is a key aspect of the added value we provide.

Store checks

Store checks are an integral part of our methods for product industries. Carried out on the ground across a relevant mix of channels, the information gained provides first-hand insights into the products we are researching, specifically:

  • Place: We track products in all relevant channels, selective and mass, store and non-store
  • Product: What are innovations in products, pack sizes and formats?
  • Price: What are brand price variations across channels, how do private label’s prices compare to those of branded goods?
  • Promotion: What are marketing and merchandising trends, offers, discounts and tie-ins?

Findings are cross-referenced with brand share data analysis. The results, combined with the findings of desk research, provide a strong basis for identifying key areas of questioning to take forward into our trade survey.

Trade survey

Interaction with global players at corporate HQ and regional levels is complemented by unique local data and insights from our in-country trade surveys around the world. Through the high profile of the Euromonitor International brand, we are able to talk directly to a wide range of sources and therefore inform our analysis with the knowledge and opinions of the leading operators in the market.

Trade surveys allow us to:

  • Fill gaps in available published data per company
  • Generate a consensus view of the size, structure and strategic direction of the category
  • Access year-in-progress data where published sources are out of date
  • Evaluate the experts’ views on current trends and market developments

In building our composite industry view, we engage with a variety of personnel in key players at all points of the supply chain: materials suppliers, manufacturers, distributors, retailers and service operators. We also interview desk research sources: industry associations; study groups; and third party observers from the trade and financial press.

Our objective is to engage in conversation with trade sources in which we exchange ideas and views on the industry, sharing our work-in-progress findings on supply/demand dynamics and potential. This dialogue enhances both parties’ understanding of the local market. The scope and reach of our trade survey also serves to eliminate bias (intentional and unintentional) from any single source.

Company analysis

At a global level, our company research combines our mix of industry interaction and use of secondary sources such as annual accounts, broker reports, financial press and databases. From a data perspective, the aim is to build “top-down” estimates of major players’ total global and regional sales.

At a country level, in line with local reporting requirements, we access annual accounts, national-specific company databases and local company websites. These are all invaluable sources as we build a view of each domestic player’s size and position within very specific categories of the industry.

Forecasts

Data projections and future performance analysis are key elements of Euromonitor International’s market intelligence. Working with historic trends of 15 years or more, a key aspect of our trade survey is to engage industry insider views of the next five years. Will volumes maintain their historic trend? Will price increases or falls of recent years continue, accelerate or slow down? Will increasing demand for one product cannibalise sales of another?

Forecasts represent many of the essential conclusions we have reached about the current state of the market, how it works and how it behaves under different macro and micro conditions. Our written analysis will state the assumptions and the trade opinion behind whether our predictions are optimistic or pessimistic, so that clients can use our statistical forecasts with confidence.

Data validation

All data is subjected to an exhaustive review process, at country, regional and global levels.

The interpretation and review of sources and data inputs forms a central part of the collaboration between industry teams and country researchers. Numbers are delivered to regional and global offices with an audit trail of sources and calculations to allow for a thorough evaluation of data sense and integrity.

Upon completion of the country review phase, data is then reviewed on a comparative basis at regional and then at a global level. Comparative checks are carried out on per capita consumption and spending levels, growth rates, patterns of category and subcategory breakdowns and distribution of sales by channel. Top-down estimates are reviewed against bottom-up regional and global market and company sales totals.

Where marked differences are seen between proximate country markets or ones at similar developmental levels, supplementary research is conducted in the relevant countries to confirm and/or amend those findings. This process ensures international comparability across the database, that consistent category and subcategory definitions have been used and that all data has been correctly tested. We make sure that possible discrepancies between different published sources have been reconciled and that our interpretation of opinion and expectation from each country’s trade sources has been applied to form a coherent international pattern.

Market analysis

Another integral part of all our research programmes is that all Euromonitor International data is accompanied by clear written analysis. From a research perspective, this explains and substantiates data findings. From a client perspective, this offers unique insights into local consumption trends, routes to market, brand preferences, channel dynamics and future trends.

Our country level analysis also provides invaluable input into the ability of our central industry specialist teams to marry local insights with strategic conclusions on the direction of the market regionally and globally.

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