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Country Report

Consumer Lending in Turkey

Jan 2013

Price: US$900

About this Report

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Post-recession consumer lending growth continues in 2012

As post-recession consumer optimism continued, consumer lending performed better in 2012 than in 2011 with the area recording double-digit growth in both outstanding balance and gross lending terms. Since the end of the recession in 2010, Turkish consumers have become more willing to undertake significant purchases such as new homes and cars which had been postponed during the recession due to the risk of losing employment. Households that survived the recession without any major loss decided to make such purchases and financed them with consumer loans, regardless of interest rate levels.

Interest-free banks continue to increase prominence within consumer loans

In the last decade, there has been an increase in the number of interest-free banks replacing the interest concept of traditional banking with profit sharing in response to the negative connotations associated with interest amongst many people with religious beliefs. Albaraka Türk Katilim Bankasi, Bank Asya, Kuveyt Türk Katilim Bankasi and Türkiye Finans Katilim Bankasi (the four players in the interest-free banking sector) are attracting more and more consumers by offering a large variety of services offered by traditional banks.

Banks lead Turkish consumer credit area

The Turkish consumer credit area is dominated by banks, including Garanti Bankasi, Turkiye Is Bankasi and Yapi ve Kredi Bankasi due to their wide product portfolios which include consumer loans for a variety of purposes. The restructuring that took place following the 2001 recession revealed that the Turkish banking system is in a healthy and strong state and withstanding the effects of the recent global economic recession. In addition, strict government control over banks is providing assurance to Turkish consumers.

Government takes precautions to improve health of consumer credit area

In order to cut back ‘ferocious’ consumer spending, the Turkish government introduced a series of legal measures to hamper consumer lending growth. Increasing control over lenders and the credit-worthiness rating system for borrowers are the major strategies towards this end. In the short to medium term, the measures are not expected to result in significant changes in consumer loan growth rates. However, they are expected to result in a more healthy market landscape due to carefully distributed loans by lenders.

Consumer credit expected to grow

Consumer loans are expected to increase over the forecast period, with double-digit growth rates forecasted for all areas due to increased consumer optimism during the post-recession period. Despite the significant control measures introduced by the government to control the supply side, the consumer loans area is still driven by consumer demand as a majority of Turkish consumers still rely on consumer loans to make large purchases such as cars, homes, furniture, education, travel and so on.


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Overview

Discover the latest market trends and uncover sources of future market growth for the Consumer Lending industry in Turkey with research from Euromonitor's team of in-country analysts.

Find hidden opportunities in the most current research data available, understand competitive threats with our detailed market analysis, and plan your corporate strategy with our expert qualitative analysis and growth projections.

If you're in the Consumer Lending industry in Turkey, our research will save you time and money while empowering you to make informed, profitable decisions.

The Consumer Lending in Turkey market research report includes:

  • Analysis of key supply-side and demand trends
  • Historic volumes and values
  • Five year forecasts of market trends and market growth  
  • Robust and transparent market research methodology, conducted in-country

Our market research reports answer questions such as:

  • What is the market size of Consumer Lending in Turkey?
  • What are the major trends set to impact the market in Turkey?
  • What capacity for consumer debt still exists in the market?
  • What’s the state of credit quality in the market?
  • Has the economic downturn reset the lender competitive landscape?

Why buy this report?

  • Gain competitive intelligence about market leaders
  • Track key industry trends, opportunities and threats
  • Inform your marketing, brand, strategy and market development, sales and supply functions

Euromonitor’s industry reports, including Consumer Lending in Turkey, originate from our database within our Consumer Finance market share and market size database, Passport, a platform which analyses Consumer Finance in 46 countries and globally.

Table of Contents

Table of Contents

Consumer Lending in Turkey - Industry Overview

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Post-recession consumer lending growth continues in 2012

Interest-free banks continue to increase prominence within consumer loans

Banks lead Turkish consumer credit area

Government takes precautions to improve health of consumer credit area

Consumer credit expected to grow

KEY TRENDS AND DEVELOPMENTS

Post-recession consumer optimism continues in 2012

Government tightens regulations to deter consumer lending

Mortgages continue to grow despite increasing interest rates

Unbanked population is attracted by interest-free banks

Auto lending records further growth due to increase in second hand car sales

MARKET DATA

  • Table 1 Consumer Lending By Category: Outstanding Balance: Value 2007-2012
  • Table 2 Consumer Lending By Category: Outstanding Balance: % Value Growth 2007-2012
  • Table 3 Consumer Lending By Category: Gross Lending: Value 2007-2012
  • Table 4 Consumer Lending By Category: Gross Lending: % Value Growth 2007-2012
  • Table 5 Consumer Lending: Non-performing Loans 2007-2012
  • Table 6 Mortgages/Housing: Non-performing Loans 2007-2012
  • Table 7 Consumer Credit: Non-performing Loans 2007-2012
  • Table 8 Card Lending: Non-performing Loans 2007-2012
  • Table 9 Forecast Consumer Lending By Category: Outstanding Balance: Value 2012-2017
  • Table 10 Forecast Consumer Lending By Category: Outstanding Balance: % Value Growth 2012-2017
  • Table 11 Forecast Consumer Lending By Category: Gross Lending: Value 2012-2017
  • Table 12 Forecast Consumer Lending By Category: Gross Lending: % Value Growth 2012-2017

SOURCES

  • Summary 1 Research Sources

Consumer Credit in Turkey - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • Increasing consumer optimism since the end of the economic recession in 2010 produced positive results in 2011 and the upward trend continued in 2012. During the recession, card lending and other personal lending areas recorded growth, mostly due to increasing credit card and other debts which need financing in the short term. With the end of the recession, however, all areas began to register positive growth as consumer confidence increased and consumers felt more capable of paying consumer loans back as a result of the diminishing risk of unemployment.

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

  • Garanti Bankasi leads consumer credit. The company has TL29 in outstanding balance within consumer credit and also has one of the lowest non-performing credit ratios among key players (Is Bankasi AS, Akbank TAS and Yapi Ve Kredi Bankasi AS) due to its relatively tight lending policy. Despite the suspicions of the BDDK regarding intermediaries such as real estate agents and car dealers, Garanti Bankasi emphasises the importance of this channel in generating consumer credit as the bank eliminates risk by carefully evaluating each intermediary to form a strategic long-term relationship. When card lending is excluded, Garanti ranks second after Is Bankasi, which has TL18.2 billion outstanding credit (excluding card lending). In addition, Garanti is also the largest mortgage lender in terms of volume.

PROSPECTS

  • Over the forecast period, outstanding balance growth will be higher than during the review period (15% CAGR vs. 0% review period average) as borrowers increasingly prefer longer repayment periods as a result of increasing consumer confidence in the prospects of the Turkish economy.

CATEGORY DATA

  • Table 13 Consumer Credit By Category: Outstanding Balance: Value 2007-2012
  • Table 14 Consumer Credit By Category: Outstanding Balance: % Value Growth 2007-2012
  • Table 15 Consumer Credit By Category: Gross Lending: Value 2007-2012
  • Table 16 Consumer Credit By Category: Gross Lending: % Value Growth 2007-2012
  • Table 17 Forecast Consumer Credit By Category: Outstanding Balance: Value 2012-2017
  • Table 18 Forecast Consumer Credit By Category: Outstanding Balance: % Value Growth 2012-2017
  • Table 19 Forecast Consumer Credit By Category: Gross Lending: Value 2012-2017
  • Table 20 Forecast Consumer Credit By Category: Gross Lending: % Value Growth 2012-2017

Segmentation

Segmentation

This market research report includes the following:

  • Consumer Lending
    • Consumer Credit
      • Card Lending
      • Auto Lending
      • Durables Lending
      • Education Lending
      • Home Lending
      • Other Personal Lending
    • Mortgages/Housing

Statistics Included

Statistics Included

For each category and subcategory you will receive the following data in Excel format:

From Passport

  • Market sizes
  • Consumer credit by type
  • Non-performing vs others loans
  • Other personal lending by type

Market size details:

  • Outstanding balance % growth
  • Outstanding balance local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Outstanding balance per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Gross lending % growth
  • Gross lending local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Gross lending per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY

Methodology

Methodology

Global insight and local knowledge

With 40 years’ experience of developed and emerging markets, Euromonitor International’s research method is built on a unique combination of specialist industry knowledge and in-country research expertise.

This approach is what enables us to achieve our goal of building a market consensus view of size, shape and trends across the full distribution universe of each category. We factor in whichever channels are relevant, from large-scale grocery to direct sellers, from discount stores to local mom-and-pop outlets.

Industry specialists

Each industry we cover is managed by an Industry Manager and team of Industry Analysts who research and report on their specialist categories all year round.

Our collaborative approach to research means that these industry teams are in constant dialogue with industry players and opinion formers. The planning of our research programmes reflects latest market trends and industry events. In completing each update project, this provides invaluable input to the testing, review and finalisation of our data.

The specialist in-house teams bring together findings from all stages of the annual research process. They work closely with in-country analysts, assess and challenge data and exercise final editorial control over the publication of new data and analysis.

Country and regional analysts

Our in-country analyst network is managed by country and regional analysts in our offices around the world. Working closely with each in-country team, the regional research management team ensures that all country researchers are well schooled in best practices, from the information collected in store checks, to the dialogue we build in trade surveys. Our country analysts ensure that national reports explain the data trends and provide clear insights into the local market’s dynamics.

In-country research network

To deliver fresh insights every year in countries all around the world, we believe the strongest approach is to use analysts on the ground. They bring fluency in local language, physical proximity to the best sources, an ability to engage directly with local industry contacts, and an awareness of how the products and services we study are advertised, sold and consumed. These are essential parts of our ability to report incisively on these markets.

Research Methodology

Our research methods

Each Euromonitor International industry report is based on a core set of research techniques:

Desk research

With industry events, corporate activity, trends and new product introductions tracked year round by our industry team, desk research provides a starting point for the in-country research programme. Our in-country researchers will access the following sources:

  • National statistics offices governmental and official sources
  • National and international trade press
  • National and international trade associations
  • Industry study groups and other semi-official sources
  • Company financials and annual reports
  • Broker reports
  • Online databases
  • The financial, business and mainstream press

Accessing sources is only the first step. The ability to interpret and reconcile often conflicting information across multiple sources is a key aspect of the added value we provide.

Store checks

Store checks are an integral part of our methods for product industries. Carried out on the ground across a relevant mix of channels, the information gained provides first-hand insights into the products we are researching, specifically:

  • Place: We track products in all relevant channels, selective and mass, store and non-store
  • Product: What are innovations in products, pack sizes and formats?
  • Price: What are brand price variations across channels, how do private label’s prices compare to those of branded goods?
  • Promotion: What are marketing and merchandising trends, offers, discounts and tie-ins?

Findings are cross-referenced with brand share data analysis. The results, combined with the findings of desk research, provide a strong basis for identifying key areas of questioning to take forward into our trade survey.

Trade survey

Interaction with global players at corporate HQ and regional levels is complemented by unique local data and insights from our in-country trade surveys around the world. Through the high profile of the Euromonitor International brand, we are able to talk directly to a wide range of sources and therefore inform our analysis with the knowledge and opinions of the leading operators in the market.

Trade surveys allow us to:

  • Fill gaps in available published data per company
  • Generate a consensus view of the size, structure and strategic direction of the category
  • Access year-in-progress data where published sources are out of date
  • Evaluate the experts’ views on current trends and market developments

In building our composite industry view, we engage with a variety of personnel in key players at all points of the supply chain: materials suppliers, manufacturers, distributors, retailers and service operators. We also interview desk research sources: industry associations; study groups; and third party observers from the trade and financial press.

Our objective is to engage in conversation with trade sources in which we exchange ideas and views on the industry, sharing our work-in-progress findings on supply/demand dynamics and potential. This dialogue enhances both parties’ understanding of the local market. The scope and reach of our trade survey also serves to eliminate bias (intentional and unintentional) from any single source.

Company analysis

At a global level, our company research combines our mix of industry interaction and use of secondary sources such as annual accounts, broker reports, financial press and databases. From a data perspective, the aim is to build “top-down” estimates of major players’ total global and regional sales.

At a country level, in line with local reporting requirements, we access annual accounts, national-specific company databases and local company websites. These are all invaluable sources as we build a view of each domestic player’s size and position within very specific categories of the industry.

Forecasts

Data projections and future performance analysis are key elements of Euromonitor International’s market intelligence. Working with historic trends of 15 years or more, a key aspect of our trade survey is to engage industry insider views of the next five years. Will volumes maintain their historic trend? Will price increases or falls of recent years continue, accelerate or slow down? Will increasing demand for one product cannibalise sales of another?

Forecasts represent many of the essential conclusions we have reached about the current state of the market, how it works and how it behaves under different macro and micro conditions. Our written analysis will state the assumptions and the trade opinion behind whether our predictions are optimistic or pessimistic, so that clients can use our statistical forecasts with confidence.

Data validation

All data is subjected to an exhaustive review process, at country, regional and global levels.

The interpretation and review of sources and data inputs forms a central part of the collaboration between industry teams and country researchers. Numbers are delivered to regional and global offices with an audit trail of sources and calculations to allow for a thorough evaluation of data sense and integrity.

Upon completion of the country review phase, data is then reviewed on a comparative basis at regional and then at a global level. Comparative checks are carried out on per capita consumption and spending levels, growth rates, patterns of category and subcategory breakdowns and distribution of sales by channel. Top-down estimates are reviewed against bottom-up regional and global market and company sales totals.

Where marked differences are seen between proximate country markets or ones at similar developmental levels, supplementary research is conducted in the relevant countries to confirm and/or amend those findings. This process ensures international comparability across the database, that consistent category and subcategory definitions have been used and that all data has been correctly tested. We make sure that possible discrepancies between different published sources have been reconciled and that our interpretation of opinion and expectation from each country’s trade sources has been applied to form a coherent international pattern.

Market analysis

Another integral part of all our research programmes is that all Euromonitor International data is accompanied by clear written analysis. From a research perspective, this explains and substantiates data findings. From a client perspective, this offers unique insights into local consumption trends, routes to market, brand preferences, channel dynamics and future trends.

Our country level analysis also provides invaluable input into the ability of our central industry specialist teams to marry local insights with strategic conclusions on the direction of the market regionally and globally.

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