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Country Report

Consumer Lending in Turkey

Feb 2011

Price: $900

About this Report

About this Report

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Market statistics: Excel workbook doc_excel_table.png (download a sample)

Overview

Discover the latest market trends and uncover sources of future market growth for the Consumer Lending industry in Turkey with research from Euromonitor's team of in-country analysts.

Find hidden opportunities in the most current research data available, understand competitive threats with our detailed market analysis, and plan your corporate strategy with our expert qualitative analysis and growth projections.

If you're in the Consumer Lending industry in Turkey, our research will save you time and money while empowering you to make informed, profitable decisions.

The Consumer Lending in Turkey market research report includes:

  • Analysis of key supply-side and demand trends
  • Historic volumes and values
  • Five year forecasts of market trends and market growth  
  • Robust and transparent market research methodology, conducted in-country

Our market research reports answer questions such as:

  • What is the market size of Consumer Lending in Turkey?
  • What are the major trends set to impact the market in Turkey?
  • What capacity for consumer debt still exists in the market?
  • What’s the state of credit quality in the market?
  • Has the economic downturn reset the lender competitive landscape?

Why buy this report?

  • Gain competitive intelligence about market leaders
  • Track key industry trends, opportunities and threats
  • Inform your marketing, brand, strategy and market development, sales and supply functions

Euromonitor’s industry reports, including Consumer Lending in Turkey, originate from our database within our Consumer Finance market share and market size database, Passport, a platform which analyses Consumer Finance in 46 countries and globally.

Sample Analysis

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Economic crisis still affecting consumer lending

Although the Turkish banking industry remains strong, the effects of economic crisis can still be seen in the consumer lending category. The unemployment rate reduced disposable incomes and the falling consumer confidence index had negative effects on some categories in consumer lending. The Turkish economy is in recovery as of 2010 but consumers are still cautious when considering purchases, especially when it comes to buying a car or a major appliance. Since consumers are postponing their purchases in some non-essential categories, some categories experienced a more significant slowdown than others, for example auto lending declined while mortgages/housing experienced growth in 2010.

Marketing activities boost mortgages and other personal lending

One of the key drivers of growth in some categories within consumer lending is the low interest rates on offer. However, this is not the only identifier within the category since interest rates are low for all players. The main identifier was the marketing activities of players in consumer lending. The fact that banks provided special discounts, gifts and additional benefits drove growth in some categories in consumer lending in 2010. As the interest rate within other personal lending is lower than that of card lending, this drove growth in other personal lending, bolstered by the additional benefits provided by industry leaders in Turkey, as was the case in mortgages/housing.

Banking industry remains healthy

The Turkish banking industry distinguished itself as the area that was the least affected by the global economic crisis, displaying a solid stance in 2010. While banks in other countries recorded losses and were only able to survive by government assistance, Turkish banks did not receive government subsidy in during the crisis. The industry did not experience any liquidity issues and banks increased their profitability while interest rates declined. In spite of the crisis, leaders continued to expand their networks to reach more consumers and also launched new product developments in order to target all consumer segments in the country.

Rising star: Bank Asya

Islamic banking is continuing to grow rapidly, in particular under the conservative AKP government. Islamic banking is one of the fastest growing categories in the banking industry and the leading player, Bank Asya continues to increase its share rapidly, both alongside the popularity of Islamic banking but more importantly due to new product developments it has launched. It not only maintained its leading position among banks in terms of loan placements, non-cash loans and net profit while registering above average rates of growth in loans, it also increased its share among other private players. The growth in assets stemmed largely from increased lending, with loans constituting 72% of the overall total.

Competition will escalate

Since the low interest rates for loans are not expected to continue over the forecast period, marketing activities, promotions and campaigns will play an important role in Turkish consumer lending. Therefore the banks will be likely to focus on promotions, expanding their network and special campaigns in order to maintain their positions. Additionally, new rising players such as Bank Asya, Denizbank or TEB (Turkiye Ekonomi Bankasi), as well as existing strong players such as Turkiye Is Bankasi AS (Isbank) or Turkiye Cumhuriyeti Ziraat Bankasi AS, will drive competition in consumer lending over the forecast period. Thus new product developments that target different consumer groups will be launched by banks, which will be of benefit to consumers as well as the key players.

Table of Contents

Table of Contents

Consumer Lending in Turkey - Industry Overview

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Economic crisis still affecting consumer lending

Marketing activities boost mortgages and other personal lending

Banking industry remains healthy

Rising star: Bank Asya

Competition will escalate

KEY TRENDS AND DEVELOPMENTS

Consumer lending enters post-crisis recovery

Low interest rates drive growth in mortgages

Economic situation continues to affect auto lending despite banks’ efforts

2011 to see recovery in demand for consumer lending

MARKET INDICATORS

  • Table 1 Consumer Lending By Category: Outstanding Balance: Value 2005-2010
  • Table 2 Consumer Lending By Category: Outstanding Balance: % Value Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 3 Consumer Lending By Category: Gross Lending: Value 2005-2010
  • Table 4 Consumer Lending By Category: Gross Lending: % Value Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 5 Consumer Lending: Non-performing Loans 2005-2010
  • Table 6 Mortgages/Housing: Non-performing Loans 2005-2010
  • Table 7 Consumer Credit: Non-performing Loans 2005-2010
  • Table 8 Card Lending: Non-performing Loans 2005-2010
  • Table 9 Forecast Consumer Lending By Category: Outstanding Balance: Value 2010-2015
  • Table 10 Forecast Consumer Lending By Category: Outstanding Balance: % Value Growth 2010-2015
  • Table 11 Forecast Consumer Lending By Category: Gross Lending: Value 2010-2015
  • Table 12 Forecast Consumer Lending By Category: Gross Lending: % Value Growth 2010-2015

DEFINITIONS

Mortgages/housing

Consumer credit

Auto lending

Card lending

Home lending

Durables lending

Education lending

Other personal lending

Non-performing

Gross lending

Outstanding balance

  • Summary 1 Research Sources

Consumer Credit in Turkey - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • In order to overcome the effects of the economic crisis, as well as convince consumers to use consumer credit in a time of uncertainty (eg high unemployment rates and high inflation), Turkish banks reduced the interest rates of their consumer credit facilities during the review period. Additionally they are running special promotions and campaigns which provide extra bonuses, extra discounts and longer terminal date, amongst other incentives. These activities had a positive impact in some consumer credit categories such as other personal lending or educational lending.

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

  • Consumer lending continues to be led by three major players Garanti Bankasi, Yapi ve Kredi Bankasi AS and Akbank TAS. Other players that also play an important role within the competitive landscape include IsBankasi, and Bank Asya. The competition in consumer credit is expected to escalate over the forecast period, thus the three major players will have to contend with greater activity in the category from a larger number of players.

PROSPECTS

  • Loans will continue to play a dominant role in the Turkish economy during the forecast period, particularly under the conditions of consistently low interest rates. Therefore banks will seek to create a product portfolio with enough diversity to respond to all the potential borrowing needs of its customers, and to fulfil their borrowing needs through every distribution channel.

CATEGORY DATA

  • Table 13 Consumer Credit By Category: Outstanding Balance: Value 2005-2010
  • Table 14 Consumer Credit By Category: Outstanding Balance: % Value Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 15 Consumer Credit By Category: Gross Lending: Value 2005-2010
  • Table 16 Consumer Credit By Category: Gross Lending: % Value Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 17 Forecast Consumer Credit By Category: Outstanding Balance: Value 2010-2015
  • Table 18 Forecast Consumer Credit By Category: Outstanding Balance: % Value Growth 2010-2015
  • Table 19 Forecast Consumer Credit By Category: Gross Lending: Value 2010-2015
  • Table 20 Forecast Consumer Credit By Category: Gross Lending: % Value Growth 2010-2015

Segmentation

Segmentation

This market research report includes the following:

  • Consumer Lending
    • Consumer Credit
      • Card Lending
      • Auto Lending
      • Durables Lending
      • Education Lending
      • Home Lending
      • Other Personal Lending
    • Mortgages/Housing

Statistics Included

Statistics Included

For each category and subcategory you will receive the following data in Excel format:

From Passport

  • Market Sizes
  • Non-performing vs Others loans

Market size details:

  • Outstanding Balance real (constant 2008) Prices % growth
  • Outstanding Balance real (constant 2008) Prices local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Outstanding Balance real (constant 2008) Prices per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Gross Lending real (constant 2008) Prices % growth
  • Gross Lending real (constant 2008) Prices local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Gross Lending real (constant 2008) Prices per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Outstanding Balance % growth
  • Outstanding Balance local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Outstanding Balance per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Gross Lending % growth
  • Gross Lending local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Gross Lending per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Outstanding Balance Nominal (Current) Prices % growth
  • Outstanding Balance Nominal (Current) Prices local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Outstanding Balance Nominal (Current) Prices per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Gross Lending Nominal (Current) Prices % growth
  • Gross Lending Nominal (Current) Prices local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Gross Lending Nominal (Current) Prices per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY

Methodology

Methodology

Global insight and local knowledge

With 40 years’ experience of developed and emerging markets, Euromonitor International’s research method is built on a unique combination of specialist industry knowledge and in-country research expertise.

This approach is what enables us to achieve our goal of building a market consensus view of size, shape and trends across the full distribution universe of each category. We factor in whichever channels are relevant, from large-scale grocery to direct sellers, from discount stores to local mom-and-pop outlets.

Industry specialists

Each industry we cover is managed by an Industry Manager and team of Industry Analysts who research and report on their specialist categories all year round.

Our collaborative approach to research means that these industry teams are in constant dialogue with industry players and opinion formers. The planning of our research programmes reflects latest market trends and industry events. In completing each update project, this provides invaluable input to the testing, review and finalisation of our data.

The specialist in-house teams bring together findings from all stages of the annual research process. They work closely with in-country analysts, assess and challenge data and exercise final editorial control over the publication of new data and analysis.

Country and regional analysts

Our in-country analyst network is managed by country and regional analysts in our offices around the world. Working closely with each in-country team, the regional research management team ensures that all country researchers are well schooled in best practices, from the information collected in store checks, to the dialogue we build in trade surveys. Our country analysts ensure that national reports explain the data trends and provide clear insights into the local market’s dynamics.

In-country research network

To deliver fresh insights every year in countries all around the world, we believe the strongest approach is to use analysts on the ground. They bring fluency in local language, physical proximity to the best sources, an ability to engage directly with local industry contacts, and an awareness of how the products and services we study are advertised, sold and consumed. These are essential parts of our ability to report incisively on these markets.

Research Methodology

Our research methods

Each Euromonitor International industry report is based on a core set of research techniques:

Desk research

With industry events, corporate activity, trends and new product introductions tracked year round by our industry team, desk research provides a starting point for the in-country research programme. Our in-country researchers will access the following sources:

  • National statistics offices governmental and official sources
  • National and international trade press
  • National and international trade associations
  • Industry study groups and other semi-official sources
  • Company financials and annual reports
  • Broker reports
  • Online databases
  • The financial, business and mainstream press

Accessing sources is only the first step. The ability to interpret and reconcile often conflicting information across multiple sources is a key aspect of the added value we provide.

Store checks

Store checks are an integral part of our methods for product industries. Carried out on the ground across a relevant mix of channels, the information gained provides first-hand insights into the products we are researching, specifically:

  • Place: We track products in all relevant channels, selective and mass, store and non-store
  • Product: What are innovations in products, pack sizes and formats?
  • Price: What are brand price variations across channels, how do private label’s prices compare to those of branded goods?
  • Promotion: What are marketing and merchandising trends, offers, discounts and tie-ins?

Findings are cross-referenced with brand share data analysis. The results, combined with the findings of desk research, provide a strong basis for identifying key areas of questioning to take forward into our trade survey.

Trade survey

Interaction with global players at corporate HQ and regional levels is complemented by unique local data and insights from our in-country trade surveys around the world. Through the high profile of the Euromonitor International brand, we are able to talk directly to a wide range of sources and therefore inform our analysis with the knowledge and opinions of the leading operators in the market.

Trade surveys allow us to:

  • Fill gaps in available published data per company
  • Generate a consensus view of the size, structure and strategic direction of the category
  • Access year-in-progress data where published sources are out of date
  • Evaluate the experts’ views on current trends and market developments

In building our composite industry view, we engage with a variety of personnel in key players at all points of the supply chain: materials suppliers, manufacturers, distributors, retailers and service operators. We also interview desk research sources: industry associations; study groups; and third party observers from the trade and financial press.

Our objective is to engage in conversation with trade sources in which we exchange ideas and views on the industry, sharing our work-in-progress findings on supply/demand dynamics and potential. This dialogue enhances both parties’ understanding of the local market. The scope and reach of our trade survey also serves to eliminate bias (intentional and unintentional) from any single source.

Company analysis

At a global level, our company research combines our mix of industry interaction and use of secondary sources such as annual accounts, broker reports, financial press and databases. From a data perspective, the aim is to build “top-down” estimates of major players’ total global and regional sales.

At a country level, in line with local reporting requirements, we access annual accounts, national-specific company databases and local company websites. These are all invaluable sources as we build a view of each domestic player’s size and position within very specific categories of the industry.

Forecasts

Data projections and future performance analysis are key elements of Euromonitor International’s market intelligence. Working with historic trends of 15 years or more, a key aspect of our trade survey is to engage industry insider views of the next five years. Will volumes maintain their historic trend? Will price increases or falls of recent years continue, accelerate or slow down? Will increasing demand for one product cannibalise sales of another?

Forecasts represent many of the essential conclusions we have reached about the current state of the market, how it works and how it behaves under different macro and micro conditions. Our written analysis will state the assumptions and the trade opinion behind whether our predictions are optimistic or pessimistic, so that clients can use our statistical forecasts with confidence.

Data validation

All data is subjected to an exhaustive review process, at country, regional and global levels.

The interpretation and review of sources and data inputs forms a central part of the collaboration between industry teams and country researchers. Numbers are delivered to regional and global offices with an audit trail of sources and calculations to allow for a thorough evaluation of data sense and integrity.

Upon completion of the country review phase, data is then reviewed on a comparative basis at regional and then at a global level. Comparative checks are carried out on per capita consumption and spending levels, growth rates, patterns of category and subcategory breakdowns and distribution of sales by channel. Top-down estimates are reviewed against bottom-up regional and global market and company sales totals.

Where marked differences are seen between proximate country markets or ones at similar developmental levels, supplementary research is conducted in the relevant countries to confirm and/or amend those findings. This process ensures international comparability across the database, that consistent category and subcategory definitions have been used and that all data has been correctly tested. We make sure that possible discrepancies between different published sources have been reconciled and that our interpretation of opinion and expectation from each country’s trade sources has been applied to form a coherent international pattern.

Market analysis

Another integral part of all our research programmes is that all Euromonitor International data is accompanied by clear written analysis. From a research perspective, this explains and substantiates data findings. From a client perspective, this offers unique insights into local consumption trends, routes to market, brand preferences, channel dynamics and future trends.

Our country level analysis also provides invaluable input into the ability of our central industry specialist teams to marry local insights with strategic conclusions on the direction of the market regionally and globally.

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