Desperate Times?: Forecast Revisit for Packaged Food in 2011

Introduction

Scope

• Introduction

Objectives of global briefing

• Introduction

External forces impact short-term packaged food prospects

• Introduction

External variables impacting consumer behaviour

• Introduction

Key findings

• Introduction

Impact of Fiscal Consolidation: Focus on US

Strongest impact on impulse and indulgence food

• Impact of Fiscal Consolidation: Focus on US

Staples and meal solutions prove more resilient

• Impact of Fiscal Consolidation: Focus on US

Previous US packaged food retail volume forecasts

• Impact of Fiscal Consolidation: Focus on US

Fiscal consolidation: Impact on US packaged food demand

• Impact of Fiscal Consolidation: Focus on US

Fiscal consolidation also constrains retail prices, value sales

• Impact of Fiscal Consolidation: Focus on US

Health positioning to offset constraints on retail value growth

• Impact of Fiscal Consolidation: Focus on US

Previous US packaged food retail unit price predictions

• Impact of Fiscal Consolidation: Focus on US

Fiscal consolidation: Impact on US packaged food prices

• Impact of Fiscal Consolidation: Focus on US

Fiscal consolidation also impacts competitive landscape

• Impact of Fiscal Consolidation: Focus on US

Impact of fiscal consolidation on meal solution shares

• Impact of Fiscal Consolidation: Focus on US

US private label retail value shares by food category

• Impact of Fiscal Consolidation: Focus on US

Fiscal consolidation: Impact on US private label food share

• Impact of Fiscal Consolidation: Focus on US

Impact of Monetary Policy: Focus on China

Packaged food r etail u nit p rices i ncreasing in real terms

• Impact of Monetary Policy: Focus on China

Central Bank admits foreign exchange reserves too high

• Impact of Monetary Policy: Focus on China

Higher interest rates could impact consumer spending

• Impact of Monetary Policy: Focus on China

Raising Chinese interest rates: Domestic implications

• Impact of Monetary Policy: Focus on China

Impact of higher interest rates on Chinese packaged food

• Impact of Monetary Policy: Focus on China

Interest rate hike to impact product categories differently

• Impact of Monetary Policy: Focus on China

Raising Chinese interest rates: Global implications

• Impact of Monetary Policy: Focus on China

Lower Chinese central b ank exposure to foreign treasuries

• Impact of Monetary Policy: Focus on China

Impact of Political Instability: Focus on Egypt and Saudi Arabia

The cost of the Egyptian revolution

• Impact of Political Instability: Focus on Egypt and Saudi Arabia

Continued bread subsidies underpinned by political unrest

• Impact of Political Instability: Focus on Egypt and Saudi Arabia

How will lingering uncertainty impact packaged food sales?

• Impact of Political Instability: Focus on Egypt and Saudi Arabia

Non-essential food most impacted by lower economic growth

• Impact of Political Instability: Focus on Egypt and Saudi Arabia

Impact of better and worst case scenarios on packaged food

• Impact of Political Instability: Focus on Egypt and Saudi Arabia

Higher public spending in Saudi Arabia in 2011

• Impact of Political Instability: Focus on Egypt and Saudi Arabia

Impact of economic growth on Saudi food demand

• Impact of Political Instability: Focus on Egypt and Saudi Arabia

Economic growth accelerates retail volume growth prospects

• Impact of Political Instability: Focus on Egypt and Saudi Arabia

Premium, value-added formats benefit from high oil prices

• Impact of Political Instability: Focus on Egypt and Saudi Arabia

Impact of Natural Disasters: Focus on Japan

Local packaged food outlook for 2011-2012

• Impact of Natural Disasters: Focus on Japan

Fukushima crisis impacts canned, chilled and frozen food

• Impact of Natural Disasters: Focus on Japan

Financial and monetary ramifications on local food market

• Impact of Natural Disasters: Focus on Japan

Impact of Japan’s earthquake on international food markets

• Impact of Natural Disasters: Focus on Japan

Impact of Japan’s earthquake on fresh meat consumption

• Impact of Natural Disasters: Focus on Japan

Worst case scenario for global fresh meat prospects

• Impact of Natural Disasters: Focus on Japan

Global stocks lead to falling prices for soybeans

• Impact of Natural Disasters: Focus on Japan

Global corn prices continue to escalate

• Impact of Natural Disasters: Focus on Japan

Final Conclusions

What now for the global packaged food market?

• Final Conclusions

Anticipating the impact of austerity in Western Europe

• Final Conclusions

Updated packaged food growth prospects in Western Europe

• Final Conclusions

Overheating economies and volatile food prices…

• Final Conclusions

…Not yet sufficient to derail emerging market retail growth

• Final Conclusions

What next for the Middle East and North Africa?

• Final Conclusions

Global packaged food retail volume growth outlook

• Final Conclusions

Appendix

IMF World E conomic Outlook 2011-2012

• Appendix

Economic growth downgraded in Middle East, North Africa

• Appendix

Key US economic indicators

• Appendix

Economic data presage weakness of US dollar in 2011

• Appendix

QE-2 versus QE-1: Effects on short-term prospects

• Appendix

Uncertainties persist for future economic growth prospects

• Appendix

High unemployment continues to hamper consumer demand

• Appendix

Deficit reduction becomes primary US political objective

• Appendix

A multiplier for every potential growth scenario

• Appendix

US fiscal consolidation and impact on GDP, unemployment

• Appendix

US public spending cuts and implications for GDP growth

• Appendix

Key Chinese economic indicators

• Appendix

China needs more domestic consumption

• Appendix

High foreign exchange reserves add to inflation concerns

• Appendix

Fluctuations in domestic money supply lead to inflation

• Appendix

2010 sees Japan’s economy return to growth

• Appendix

Forecasting the future: Normal and worst case scenarios

• Appendix

Q1 2011: Japan falling back into recession

• Appendix

Impact on Japanese supply chain input costs

• Appendix

Report Definitions

Data parameters and report definitions

• Report Definitions

Packaged food versus fresh food

• Report Definitions

Product category definitions

• Report Definitions