Economy, Finance and Trade: China

April 2023

China experienced a considerably slowing economy over 2022, dragged down by the ongoing strict zero-COVID-19 strategy, subdued domestic property market, and weakened consumer and business confidence. However, the economy is forecast to accelerate over 2023, as China is emerging from the prolonged pandemic-related lockdown and the anticipated release of pent-up demand is expected to boost consumption and support growth.

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Overview:

The Country Briefings series examine market potential, economic and consumer trends impacting each country and how they are set to change.

Each Country Briefing covers one of these topics:

Economy, Finance and Trade: Understanding the structure, health and potential risks of an economy are important for decision-making within an existing operating environment as well as for expansion strategies. Real GDP growth, inflation and exchange rate fluctuations will directly impact consumer market potential. Import and export trade profiles help gauge how open an economy is to trade and investment, while analysis of government finances can be used to explore macroeconomic stability and susceptibility to economic shocks.

Income and Expenditure: Insights into income, wealth and expenditure of consumers are vital in helping businesses make strategic decisions with regards to which country (or even which region within a country) to enter, which consumer segment to target, which products or services to market, and at which price point. Other factors such as the size and expansion of the middle class and income inequality are also important in helping companies gauge the potential of a country market.

Households: Global shifts in gender, ageing, migration and housing are transforming the size, location,  general make-up as well as income and expenditure of households around the globe, with diverse implications for governments and companies. Households insights can help identify the decision-making processes and consumption tastes of different household groups and types within a country, and assess household appliance and digital readiness that is key for formulating market technology and internet strategies.

Business Dynamics: A stable and competitive business environment is vital to operate efficiently and attract inward investment. Businesses can assess these factors alongside challenges such as corruption, political instability and terrorism, also gain insight into business operating environment and make strategic investment decisions. Transport infrastructure, ICT readiness and labour force dynamics will also identify potential issues with a supply chain and the level of workforce skills.

Commodities: Insights on key sectors directly related to the environmental commodities of a country such as energy, water, pollution, environmental resilience, forest and biodiversity and food and agriculture help businesses to make strategic decisions in relation to environmental and commodities trends, improve brand reputation and ensure long-term operations while ultimately growing the bottom line.

The briefings cover 103 countries and identify topics of crucial interest to planners, marketers and researchers.

Economy, Finance and Trade: China

HEADLINES

The reopening of China’s economy set to spur growth
The level of inflation in China is set to remain low over the near-term
Exports increased over 2022, yet foreign demand is cooling down
Weak property market drags down overall economic development
China’s budget deficit is set to decrease in 2023 given better economic prospects

COUNTRY RISK ANALYSIS

Chart 1 Economic Landscape of China 2022-2027
Chart 2 Real GDP Growth in China 2010-2027
Chart 3 GDP Size and Growth 2017-2027
Chart 4 Gross Value Added by Sector in China 2022
Chart 5 Domestic Demand 2022 and Period Growth 2017-2022
Chart 6 Standardised Business Confidence Index 2017-2024
Chart 7 Standardised Consumer Confidence Index 2017-2024
Chart 8 Productivity 2017/2022
Chart 9 Productivity by Sector in China 2022 and CAGR 2017-2022
Chart 10 Monetary Landscape of China 2022
Chart 11 Inflation 2017-2027
Chart 12 Average Inflation 2017-2027
Chart 13 Interest Rates in China 2017-2024
Chart 14 Exchange Rates 2017-2024
Chart 15 Money Supply Growth and Money Velocity in China 2017-2024
Chart 16 Foreign Trade Landscape of China 2022
Chart 17 Exports and Export Price Index in China 2017-2022
Chart 18 Exports by Commodity in China 2022
Chart 19 Top 10 Export Destinations 2022 and Period Growth 2017-2022
Chart 20 Imports and Import Price Index in China 2017-2022
Chart 21 Imports by Commodity in China 2022
Chart 22 Top 10 Import Origins 2022 and Period Growth 2017-2022
Chart 23 Investment Landscape of China 2021-2022
Chart 24 Foreign Direct Investment Inflows and FDI intensity 2021
Chart 25 Foreign Direct Investment Inflows and Outflows in China 2016-2021
Chart 26 Gross Fixed Capital Formation in China 2017-2022
Chart 27 Government Budget Landscape of China 2022
Chart 28 Public Debt 2022
Chart 29 Government Revenue 2022
Chart 30 Government Expenditure 2022
Chart 31 Government Expenditure by Function in China 2022 and Period Growth 2017-2022
Chart 32 Baseline and Scenario Forecasts in China 2020-2026
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