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Country Report

Fresh Food in Japan

Oct 2011

Price: US$1,100

About this Report

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Fierce global competition in fresh food is of increasing concern

Japan is the largest net importer of agricultural products in the world and depends heavily on specific countries for its imports. However, the review period saw an increase in demand for foodstuffs and agricultural products due to global population growth, particularly in developing countries, alongside economic growth in China and India. This resulted in growing demand, with other importers increasingly competing with Japan for supplies. On the supply side, a low increase in harvested areas and unit crop yields and the impact of global climate change meanwhile impacted the production of fresh food.

Increased preference for low-priced meat products

Due to Japanese consumers’ increasing preference for low-priced meat products, unit prices for domestic beef plummeted during the review period. The consumption of Australian beef meanwhile remained stagnant while unit prices remained low throughout the period. Overall, prices of meat in Japan remained low throughout the review period.

Non-traditional distribution channels gaining ground in vegetables and fruits

Farmers' cooperatives increasingly opened their own retail outlets during the review period. These stores are directly competing against supermarkets/hypermarkets in Japan. Farmers' associations used to distribute their products via organised retailers or at most sold products in their local neighbourhood via small sales trucks but increasingly switched to selling products directly in their stores by the end of the review period. This trend was encouraged by consumers’ concerns regarding food safety, with many consumers being keen to buy fresh food. Most Japanese housewives shop in the morning in order to get fresh food. Farmers' association retail outlets are meanwhile packed with vegetables such as spinach, cabbage, long green onions and other vegetables and fruits that are picked in the morning.

Nuclear crisis to impact fresh food consumption in forecast period

Following the March 2011 Japanese earthquake, severe aftershocks continued to trouble the area, hampering the already precarious repair efforts aimed at preventing any further exacerbation of the catastrophe, while radiation continued to escape into the air and water. According to recent estimates, around 20,000 hectares of agricultural land were damaged by the triple disaster in the three affected prefectures. Vegetables and milk from the region were the first to suffer high radiation levels due to the initial fallout. The country’s domestic meat supply chain will also be negatively impacted for some time to come. According to industry sources, around 20% of Japan’s pork, poultry and beef production is located in the affected region. Although all fresh food categories, as well as grains and dairy foods, were impacted to some extent by the nuclear disaster, the fish and seafood industry suffered most. As radioactive water is discharged into the sea in an effort to stop the damaged reactor from spinning out of control, fish and seafood are seeing high levels of radioactivity. There is thus likely to be a slightly lower consumption of fresh food such as meat, vegetables, fish and seafood in the short-term as the country’s supply chain is affected by the nuclear crisis.


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Overview

Discover the latest market trends and uncover sources of future market growth for the Fresh Food industry in Japan with research from Euromonitor's team of in-country analysts.

Find hidden opportunities in the most current research data available, understand competitive threats with our detailed market analysis, and plan your corporate strategy with our expert qualitative analysis and growth projections.

If you're in the Fresh Food industry in Japan, our research will save you time and money while empowering you to make informed, profitable decisions.

The Fresh Food in Japan market research report includes:

  • Analysis of key supply-side and demand trends
  • Detailed segmentation of international and local products
  • Historic volumes and values, company and brand market shares
  • Five year forecasts of market trends and market growth  
  • Robust and transparent market research methodology, conducted in-country

Our market research reports answer questions such as:

  • What is the market size of Fresh Food in Japan?
  • What are the major brands in Japan?
  • What is the impact of commodities price fluctuations on local production and consumption?
  • What are the key campaigns and/or legislation driving fresh food sales?

Why buy this report?

  • Gain competitive intelligence about market leaders
  • Track key industry trends, opportunities and threats
  • Inform your marketing, brand, strategy and market development, sales and supply functions

This industry report originates from Passport, our Food market research database.

Table of Contents

Table of Contents

Fresh Food in Japan - Industry Overview

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Fierce global competition in fresh food is of increasing concern

Increased preference for low-priced meat products

Non-traditional distribution channels gaining ground in vegetables and fruits

Nuclear crisis to impact fresh food consumption in forecast period

KEY TRENDS AND DEVELOPMENTS

Japan’s nuclear crisis impacts fresh food

MARKET DATA

  • Table 1 Sales of Fresh Food by Category: Total Volume 2005-2010
  • Table 2 Sales of Fresh Food by Category: % Total Volume Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 3 Sales of Fresh Food by Distribution Format: % Total Volume Analysis 2005-2010
  • Table 4 Sales of Fresh Food by Distribution Format: % Retail Volume Analysis 2005-2010
  • Table 5 Forecast Sales of Fresh Food by Category: Total Volume 2010-2015
  • Table 6 Forecast Sales of Fresh Food by Category: % Total Volume Growth 2010-2015

DEFINITIONS

Eggs in Japan - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • Fresh egg total volume sales shrank by 1% in 2010 over the previous year. This was mainly due to decreasing demand for eggs as a result of the declining population.

PROSPECTS

  • The consumption of eggs is projected to grow by 1% total volume CAGR over the forecast period. Eggs will remain a staple product in the Japanese diet and their protein content will continue to appeal to health-conscious consumers.

CATEGORY DATA

  • Table 7 Sales of Eggs: Total Volume 2005-2010
  • Table 8 Sales of Eggs: % Total Volume Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 9 Sales of Eggs by Distribution Format: % Total Volume Analysis 2005-2010
  • Table 10 Forecast Sales of Eggs: Total Volume 2010-2015
  • Table 11 Forecast Sales of Eggs: % Total Volume Growth 2010-2015

Fish and Seafood in Japan - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • Volume sales of fish and seafood remained stagnant in 2010 at 4.9 million tonnes. During the review period, fish and seafood total volume sales meanwhile exhibited a decline with a CAGR -3%. This was despite Japanese consumers’ passion for fish and seafood and the strong role of raw fish (sashimi) in Japanese diets. The sluggish sales were meanwhile down to declining fish production and a shift towards more convenient food.

PROSPECTS

  • During the forecast period, fresh fish and seafood is expected to show a positive but slight total volume growth of 1% overall. The overall outlook for fresh fish and seafood is not promising due to the decline of fish catches and changes in fish consumption trends.

CATEGORY DATA

  • Table 12 Sales of Fish and Seafood by Category: Total Volume 2005-2010
  • Table 13 Sales of Fish and Seafood by Category: % Total Volume Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 14 Sales of Fish and Seafood by Distribution Format: % Total Volume Analysis 2005-2010
  • Table 15 Forecast Sales of Fish and Seafood by Category: Total Volume 2010-2015
  • Table 16 Forecast Sales of Fish and Seafood by Category: % Total Volume Growth 2010-2015

Fruits in Japan - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • Fresh and healthy are increasingly the key words in the Japanese diet, with fruits becoming a major element of modern Japanese eating as a result. On average, total per capita consumption of fruits was 56kg in 2010 (equivalent to 153g of fruits per day).

PROSPECTS

  • Japanese consumers’ awareness of health and wellness is expected to grow further over the forecast period. This is expected to boost the appeal of many fruits, particularly those with an especially healthy image such as cranberries/blueberries, oranges, tangerines and mandarins and pomegranates. As the economy rebounds, consumer spending on fruits is also expected to grow, with this likely to encourage US suppliers to offer new types of exotic fruit in Japan.

CATEGORY DATA

  • Table 17 Sales of Fruits by Category: Total Volume 2005-2010
  • Table 18 Sales of Fruits by Category: % Total Volume Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 19 Sales of Fruits by Distribution Format: % Total Volume Analysis 2005-2010
  • Table 20 Forecast Sales of Fruits by Category: Total Volume 2010-2015
  • Table 21 Forecast Sales of Fruits by Category: % Total Volume Growth 2010-2015

Meat in Japan - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • Meat sales remained stagnant at 3.8 million tonnes in 2010. This stagnancy was due to a combination of reasons, including declining population, lower production levels and consumers’ concerns about food safety. The population of Japan is aging and began to decline since 2007. As the population gets older, their calorific intake of meat declined. Additionally, farming saw a profound change during the review period.

PROSPECTS

  • In the forecast period, meat total volume sales in Japan are expected to remain stagnant. This lack of growth will partly be due to a declining population and will also be due to an unfavourable economic climate, with this expected to persist. The population is aging and started to decline in 2007, with older consumers typically eating less meat. In addition, the meat intake of Japanese people is already low in comparison to that of many other countries.

CATEGORY DATA

  • Table 22 Sales of Meat by Category: Total Volume 2005-2010
  • Table 23 Sales of Meat by Category: % Total Volume Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 24 Sales of Meat by Distribution Format: % Total Volume Analysis 2005-2010
  • Table 25 Forecast Sales of Meat by Category: Total Volume 2010-2015
  • Table 26 Forecast Sales of Meat by Category: % Total Volume Growth 2010-2015

Nuts in Japan - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • There was a strong increase in demand for nuts during the review period. This was due to consumers’ increasing awareness that nuts offer natural health benefits.

PROSPECTS

  • Nuts is expected to increase total volume by 13% between 2010 and 2015. Growth will occur due to Japanese consumers seeking convenient, affordable and healthy foods.

CATEGORY DATA

  • Table 27 Sales of Nuts by Category: Total Volume 2005-2010
  • Table 28 Sales of Nuts by Category: % Total Volume Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 29 Sales of Nuts by Distribution Format: % Total Volume Analysis 2005-2010
  • Table 30 Forecast Sales of Nuts by Category: Total Volume 2010-2015
  • Table 31 Forecast Sales of Nuts by Category: % Total Volume Growth 2010-2015

Pulses in Japan - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • Pulses saw a strong total volume growth of 7% in 2010 to reach 262,000 tonnes. One of the driving forces behind this growth was the increasing popularity of ethnic cuisines during the review period, particularly East Asian dishes. Also, pulses benefited from their healthy image and affordable price, thus maintaining strong demand in Japan despite economic uncertainties in the country towards the end of the review period.

PROSPECTS

  • During the forecast period, demand for pulses is expected to grow at a slower rate, with a total volume CAGR of 1% expected during the forecast period. Growth is expected to slow largely due to a continuing shift in consumption patterns towards food in more convenient formats.

CATEGORY DATA

  • Table 32 Sales of Pulses by Category: Total Volume 2005-2010
  • Table 33 Sales of Pulses by Category: % Total Volume Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 34 Sales of Pulses by Distribution Format: % Total Volume Analysis 2005-2010
  • Table 35 Forecast Sales of Pulses by Category: Total Volume 2010-2015
  • Table 36 Forecast Sales of Pulses by Category: % Total Volume Growth 2010-2015

Starchy Roots in Japan - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • Starchy roots exhibited decline of 3% in 2010 compared to 2009. This was largely due to poor sales of potatoes and “other” roots, with these products seeing total volume declines of 6% and 2% respectively in the year. Potatoes and “other” roots accounted for 32% and 46% of total starchy roots volume sales in 2010 respectively, with their performance thus shaping overall growth. These products suffered due to the declining in population and the growing percentage of elderly consumers in Japan. Elderly consumers often avoiding high-calorie foods such as potato as they seek to keep their weight down.

PROSPECTS

  • During the forecast period, starchy roots is expected to show a marginal total volume increase due to these products’ low prices and widespread popularity.

CATEGORY DATA

  • Table 37 Sales of Starchy Roots by Category: Total Volume 2005-2010
  • Table 38 Sales of Starchy Roots by Category: % Total Volume Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 39 Sales of Starchy Roots by Distribution Format: % Total Volume Analysis 2005-2010
  • Table 40 Forecast Sales of Starchy Roots by Category: Total Volume 2010-2015
  • Table 41 Forecast Sales of Starchy Roots by Category: % Total Volume Growth 2010-2015

Sugar and Sweeteners in Japan - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • Total volume sales of sugar and sweeteners in 2010 reached 1.2 million tonnes, with an increase of almost 5% compared to 2009. About 60% of local demand is met by imports and the remaining 40% is produced domestically.

PROSPECTS

  • The total volume of sugar and sweeteners is projected to grow by a CAGR of 3% over the forecast period. Sugar and sweeteners will remain a staple product in the Japanese diet, while the increasing use of sugar in many baking recipes will support stronger demand during the forecast period.

CATEGORY DATA

  • Table 42 Sales of Sugar and Sweeteners: Total Volume 2005-2010
  • Table 43 Sales of Sugar and Sweeteners: % Total Volume Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 44 Sales of Sugar and Sweeteners by Distribution Format: % Total Volume Analysis 2005-2010
  • Table 45 Forecast Sales of Sugar and Sweeteners: Total Volume 2010-2015
  • Table 46 Forecast Sales of Sugar and Sweeteners: % Total Volume Growth 2010-2015

Vegetables in Japan - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • On the average, Japanese eat about 58kg per year. Overall, the consumption of vegetables other than green and yellow vegetables decreased over the last three decades.

PROSPECTS

  • Vegetables is expected to see slower growth in comparison to overall fresh food during the forecast period, rising by 1% during the forecast period overall and reaching 7.5 million tonnes in 2015.

CATEGORY DATA

  • Table 47 Sales of Vegetables by Category: Total Volume 2005-2010
  • Table 48 Sales of Vegetables by Category: % Total Volume Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 49 Sales of Vegetables by Distribution Format: % Total Volume Analysis 2005-2010
  • Table 50 Forecast Sales of Vegetables by Category: Total Volume 2010-2015
  • Table 51 Forecast Sales of Vegetables by Category: % Total Volume Growth 2010-2015

Segmentation

Segmentation

This market research report includes the following:

  • Fresh Food
    • Eggs
    • Fish and Seafood
      • Crustaceans
      • Fish
      • Molluscs and Cephalopods
    • Fruits
      • Apples
      • Banana
      • Cherries
      • Cranberries/Blueberries
      • Grapefruit/Pomelo
      • Grapes
      • Lemon and Limes
      • Oranges, Tangerines and Mandarins
      • Peaches/Nectarines
      • Pears/Quinces
      • Pineapple
      • Plums/Sloes
      • Strawberries
      • Other Fruits
    • Meat
      • Beef and Veal
      • Lamb, Mutton and Goat
      • Pork
      • Poultry
      • Other Meat
    • Nuts
      • Almonds
      • Peanuts (Groundnuts)
      • Pistachio
      • Walnuts
      • Other Nuts
    • Pulses
      • Beans
      • Peas
      • Other Pulses
    • Starchy Roots
      • Cassava
      • Potatoes
      • Sweet Potatoes
      • Other Roots
    • Sugar and Sweeteners
    • Vegetables
      • Onion
      • Tomatoes
      • Other Vegetables

Statistics Included

Statistics Included

For each category and subcategory you will receive the following data in Excel format:

From Passport

  • Market sizes
  • Distribution
  • Analysis by type
  • Trade statistics - volume

Market size details:

  • Retail volume
  • Retail volume % growth
  • Retail volume per capita
  • Total volume
  • Total volume % growth
  • Total volume per capita
  • Total volume
  • Total volume % growth
  • Total volume per capita

Methodology

Methodology

Global insight and local knowledge

With 40 years’ experience of developed and emerging markets, Euromonitor International’s research method is built on a unique combination of specialist industry knowledge and in-country research expertise.

This approach is what enables us to achieve our goal of building a market consensus view of size, shape and trends across the full distribution universe of each category. We factor in whichever channels are relevant, from large-scale grocery to direct sellers, from discount stores to local mom-and-pop outlets.

Industry specialists

Each industry we cover is managed by an Industry Manager and team of Industry Analysts who research and report on their specialist categories all year round.

Our collaborative approach to research means that these industry teams are in constant dialogue with industry players and opinion formers. The planning of our research programmes reflects latest market trends and industry events. In completing each update project, this provides invaluable input to the testing, review and finalisation of our data.

The specialist in-house teams bring together findings from all stages of the annual research process. They work closely with in-country analysts, assess and challenge data and exercise final editorial control over the publication of new data and analysis.

Country and regional analysts

Our in-country analyst network is managed by country and regional analysts in our offices around the world. Working closely with each in-country team, the regional research management team ensures that all country researchers are well schooled in best practices, from the information collected in store checks, to the dialogue we build in trade surveys. Our country analysts ensure that national reports explain the data trends and provide clear insights into the local market’s dynamics.

In-country research network

To deliver fresh insights every year in countries all around the world, we believe the strongest approach is to use analysts on the ground. They bring fluency in local language, physical proximity to the best sources, an ability to engage directly with local industry contacts, and an awareness of how the products and services we study are advertised, sold and consumed. These are essential parts of our ability to report incisively on these markets.

Research Methodology

Our research methods

Each Euromonitor International industry report is based on a core set of research techniques:

Desk research

With industry events, corporate activity, trends and new product introductions tracked year round by our industry team, desk research provides a starting point for the in-country research programme. Our in-country researchers will access the following sources:

  • National statistics offices governmental and official sources
  • National and international trade press
  • National and international trade associations
  • Industry study groups and other semi-official sources
  • Company financials and annual reports
  • Broker reports
  • Online databases
  • The financial, business and mainstream press

Accessing sources is only the first step. The ability to interpret and reconcile often conflicting information across multiple sources is a key aspect of the added value we provide.

Store checks

Store checks are an integral part of our methods for product industries. Carried out on the ground across a relevant mix of channels, the information gained provides first-hand insights into the products we are researching, specifically:

  • Place: We track products in all relevant channels, selective and mass, store and non-store
  • Product: What are innovations in products, pack sizes and formats?
  • Price: What are brand price variations across channels, how do private label’s prices compare to those of branded goods?
  • Promotion: What are marketing and merchandising trends, offers, discounts and tie-ins?

Findings are cross-referenced with brand share data analysis. The results, combined with the findings of desk research, provide a strong basis for identifying key areas of questioning to take forward into our trade survey.

Trade survey

Interaction with global players at corporate HQ and regional levels is complemented by unique local data and insights from our in-country trade surveys around the world. Through the high profile of the Euromonitor International brand, we are able to talk directly to a wide range of sources and therefore inform our analysis with the knowledge and opinions of the leading operators in the market.

Trade surveys allow us to:

  • Fill gaps in available published data per company
  • Generate a consensus view of the size, structure and strategic direction of the category
  • Access year-in-progress data where published sources are out of date
  • Evaluate the experts’ views on current trends and market developments

In building our composite industry view, we engage with a variety of personnel in key players at all points of the supply chain: materials suppliers, manufacturers, distributors, retailers and service operators. We also interview desk research sources: industry associations; study groups; and third party observers from the trade and financial press.

Our objective is to engage in conversation with trade sources in which we exchange ideas and views on the industry, sharing our work-in-progress findings on supply/demand dynamics and potential. This dialogue enhances both parties’ understanding of the local market. The scope and reach of our trade survey also serves to eliminate bias (intentional and unintentional) from any single source.

Company analysis

At a global level, our company research combines our mix of industry interaction and use of secondary sources such as annual accounts, broker reports, financial press and databases. From a data perspective, the aim is to build “top-down” estimates of major players’ total global and regional sales.

At a country level, in line with local reporting requirements, we access annual accounts, national-specific company databases and local company websites. These are all invaluable sources as we build a view of each domestic player’s size and position within very specific categories of the industry.

Forecasts

Data projections and future performance analysis are key elements of Euromonitor International’s market intelligence. Working with historic trends of 15 years or more, a key aspect of our trade survey is to engage industry insider views of the next five years. Will volumes maintain their historic trend? Will price increases or falls of recent years continue, accelerate or slow down? Will increasing demand for one product cannibalise sales of another?

Forecasts represent many of the essential conclusions we have reached about the current state of the market, how it works and how it behaves under different macro and micro conditions. Our written analysis will state the assumptions and the trade opinion behind whether our predictions are optimistic or pessimistic, so that clients can use our statistical forecasts with confidence.

Data validation

All data is subjected to an exhaustive review process, at country, regional and global levels.

The interpretation and review of sources and data inputs forms a central part of the collaboration between industry teams and country researchers. Numbers are delivered to regional and global offices with an audit trail of sources and calculations to allow for a thorough evaluation of data sense and integrity.

Upon completion of the country review phase, data is then reviewed on a comparative basis at regional and then at a global level. Comparative checks are carried out on per capita consumption and spending levels, growth rates, patterns of category and subcategory breakdowns and distribution of sales by channel. Top-down estimates are reviewed against bottom-up regional and global market and company sales totals.

Where marked differences are seen between proximate country markets or ones at similar developmental levels, supplementary research is conducted in the relevant countries to confirm and/or amend those findings. This process ensures international comparability across the database, that consistent category and subcategory definitions have been used and that all data has been correctly tested. We make sure that possible discrepancies between different published sources have been reconciled and that our interpretation of opinion and expectation from each country’s trade sources has been applied to form a coherent international pattern.

Market analysis

Another integral part of all our research programmes is that all Euromonitor International data is accompanied by clear written analysis. From a research perspective, this explains and substantiates data findings. From a client perspective, this offers unique insights into local consumption trends, routes to market, brand preferences, channel dynamics and future trends.

Our country level analysis also provides invaluable input into the ability of our central industry specialist teams to marry local insights with strategic conclusions on the direction of the market regionally and globally.

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