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Country Report

Fresh Food in Mexico

Jun 2012

Price: US$1,100

About this Report

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Worst drought in 70 years hits agriculture and cattle production hard

In 2011, Mexico suffered the worst drought registered in the past 70 years. 21 States out of 32 were affected, 40% of the territory severely affected. Damages include losses in agriculture, especially for corn and beans. Regarding cattle production, 450,000 animals have died, and another 12 million cattle heads (35% of the herd across the country) are starving because of the lack of water and fodder. Government action to ease this disaster include temporary work programs to help farmers, insurance, water delivery in pipes to the most affected communities, and switching to crops that demand less water for their production, like oatmeal and fodder.

Food prices rise at the end of 2011 and continue into 2012

The drought that hit Mexico in 2011 led to production drops of many crops and cattle. Shortages are imminent and prices began to rise at the end of 2011. Crops such as beans and corn are amongst the most affected; two of the main diet components for Mexicans. Price increases are also pushed by imports and international supply. In the case of corn, speculation and monopolistic practices have soared “tortilla” prices.

Mexican eating habits remain the same despite obesity concerns

The rising levels of obesity among the Mexican children and adults have forced the government and civil society to start campaigns promoting healthier eating habits, such as consumption of fruit and seafood. However, the consumption of fruit and vegetables remains relatively low despite such campaigns. Mexico is the number one consumer in the world of carbonated drinks, thus high levels of sugar intake -about 132g per capita a day- is directly related. According to FAO the calorie intake in Mexico is 3,200 calories per capita a day, 14% over the world’s average. The real effects of government and society awareness efforts have yet to be observed, as a change in eating habits, more physical activity and reductions in the calorie content of everyday meals are necessary.

Crop production costs keep rising, influenced by international affairs

Agriculture in Mexico is very dependent on the US for crop production; from seeds, to fertilisers and disease-control chemicals, because most of these are imported. Thus, Mexican farmers are subject mainly to US Dollar vs. Mexican Peso parity. Ever since the 2008-2009 global financial, crisis the peso has lost purchasing power against the US Dollar making crop production more expensive. Today with the European economy reeling, the US Dollar has gained ground once again; by the end of November, parity reached MX$14 pesos = US$1 dollar, stabilising at around MX$13 pesos = US$1 by the end of 2011. However, demand for and market value of crops have not necessarily changed in the same proportion production costs have. Additional factors add stress to crop production, such as the current drought not only on Mexican territory but in the south of the US, plus international demand for food boosts prices.


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Overview

Discover the latest market trends and uncover sources of future market growth for the Fresh Food industry in Mexico with research from Euromonitor's team of in-country analysts.

Find hidden opportunities in the most current research data available, understand competitive threats with our detailed market analysis, and plan your corporate strategy with our expert qualitative analysis and growth projections.

If you're in the Fresh Food industry in Mexico, our research will save you time and money while empowering you to make informed, profitable decisions.

The Fresh Food in Mexico market research report includes:

  • Analysis of key supply-side and demand trends
  • Detailed segmentation of international and local products
  • Historic volumes and values, company and brand market shares
  • Five year forecasts of market trends and market growth  
  • Robust and transparent market research methodology, conducted in-country

Our market research reports answer questions such as:

  • What is the market size of Fresh Food in Mexico?
  • What are the major brands in Mexico?
  • What is the impact of commodities price fluctuations on local production and consumption?
  • What are the key campaigns and/or legislation driving fresh food sales?

Why buy this report?

  • Gain competitive intelligence about market leaders
  • Track key industry trends, opportunities and threats
  • Inform your marketing, brand, strategy and market development, sales and supply functions

This industry report originates from Passport, our Food market research database.

Table of Contents

Table of Contents

Fresh Food in Mexico - Industry Overview

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Worst drought in 70 years hits agriculture and cattle production hard

Food prices rise at the end of 2011 and continue into 2012

Mexican eating habits remain the same despite obesity concerns

Crop production costs keep rising, influenced by international affairs

KEY TRENDS AND DEVELOPMENTS

Worst drought in 70 years severely hits agriculture and cattle production

Food prices rise by the end of 2011 and expected to continue into 2012

Mexican eating habits remain the same despite obesity concerns

MARKET DATA

  • Table 1 Sales of Fresh Food by Category: Total Volume 2006-2011
  • Table 2 Sales of Fresh Food by Category: % Total Volume Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 3 Sales of Fresh Food by Distribution Format: % Total Volume Analysis 2006-2011
  • Table 4 Sales of Fresh Food by Distribution Format: % Retail Volume Analysis 2006-2011
  • Table 5 Forecast Sales of Fresh Food by Category: Total Volume 2011-2016
  • Table 6 Forecast Sales of Fresh Food by Category: % Total Volume Growth 2011-2016

DEFINITIONS

SOURCES

  • Summary 1 Research Sources

Eggs in Mexico - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • The Mexican population has traditionally included eggs in their diet. Thus, the country holds first place worldwide in terms of per capita egg consumption, with 22.8kg per capita in 2011, that is more than one egg a day. This increase was due primarily to the low price and consumption patterns, since it is a product that has nutritional benefits and also versatility in preparation. Eggs occupy an important role in the diet of Mexicans from all economic groups, and for low-income segments of the population it is one of the most important sources of protein; one kilogram of egg is cheaper than one kilogram of meat.

PROSPECTS

  • Every year the Mexican market registers an increase of 200-300g in per capita consumption, thus over the forecast period egg consumption is expected to continue expanding thanks to the consolidated position of the local industry.

CATEGORY DATA

  • Table 7 Sales of Eggs: Total Volume 2006-2011
  • Table 8 Sales of Eggs: % Total Volume Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 9 Sales of Eggs by Distribution Format: % Total Volume Analysis 2006-2011
  • Table 10 Forecast Sales of Eggs: Total Volume 2011-2016
  • Table 11 Forecast Sales of Eggs: % Total Volume Growth 2011-2016

Fish and Seafood in Mexico - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • According to current insight from CONAPESCA (National fishing commission) seafood has the lowest consumption frequency compared to food categories such as poultry and eggs, or red meat. Seafood is mainly purchased in street markets, because it is perceived to be fresher. Consumers are more familiar with species such as shrimps, and fish: Huachinango, sierra and mojarra; favouring their consumption. Fish and seafood are perceived as healthy but also expensive. High prices hold back consumption.

PROSPECTS

  • Over the forecast period, fish and seafood consumption in Mexico is expected to see important boosts from the health and wellness trend which looks likely to compensate for the increasing problem of obesity, as well as from aquiculture improvements and campaigns undertaken by CONAPESCA which will drive demand. This will lead to increases in total volumes and also per capita consumption.

CATEGORY DATA

  • Table 12 Sales of Fish and Seafood by Category: Total Volume 2006-2011
  • Table 13 Sales of Fish and Seafood by Category: % Total Volume Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 14 Sales of Fish and Seafood by Distribution Format: % Total Volume Analysis 2006-2011
  • Table 15 Forecast Sales of Fish and Seafood by Category: Total Volume 2011-2016
  • Table 16 Forecast Sales of Fish and Seafood by Category: % Total Volume Growth 2011-2016

Fruits in Mexico - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • Fruit consumption in Mexico is driven by seasonality. Citrus - which is consumed in juice or used as an ingredient to cook or flavour food, bananas, apples and pineapples are among the most popular fruits in Mexico; berries on the other hand have little demand.

PROSPECTS

  • Per capita consumption is not forecast to record important increases, and is only expected to go from 94kg a year in 2010 to 96kg in 2015. More efforts are required in terms of direct consumer advertising, to encourage the consumption of more fruit in Mexico, especially among children. However, the increasing penetration of processed fruit and processed juices is likely to represent important competition to fresh fruit, capturing consumers due to lower prices as well as extended convenience and preservation periods.

CATEGORY DATA

  • Table 17 Sales of Fruits by Category: Total Volume 2006-2011
  • Table 18 Sales of Fruits by Category: % Total Volume Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 19 Sales of Fruits by Distribution Format: % Total Volume Analysis 2006-2011
  • Table 20 Forecast Sales of Fruits by Category: Total Volume 2011-2016
  • Table 21 Forecast Sales of Fruits by Category: % Total Volume Growth 2011-2016

Meat in Mexico - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • Since 1997 chicken is the meat most consumed by Mexicans, accounting for 47% of meat consumption in the country. According to industry sources, the main factors for chicken’s dominance are: More retail outlets increasingly close to the consumer; confidence in product quality (freshness perception from the public); product quality at affordable prices; trend towards meat that is low in fat, and chicken lends itself to a variety of methods of preparation. However, the poultry industry is suffering derived from the rising prices of corn, negatively impacting production costs and threatening the industry’s growth considering bird feed represents 68% of the production costs.

PROSPECTS

  • A possible meat shortage will be felt by 2012 because of the drop in cattle production in 2011, and also due to the lack of fodder preventing cows from getting pregnant.

CATEGORY DATA

  • Table 22 Sales of Meat by Category: Total Volume 2006-2011
  • Table 23 Sales of Meat by Category: % Total Volume Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 24 Sales of Meat by Distribution Format: % Total Volume Analysis 2006-2011
  • Table 25 Forecast Sales of Meat by Category: Total Volume 2011-2016
  • Table 26 Forecast Sales of Meat by Category: % Total Volume Growth 2011-2016

Nuts in Mexico - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • Peanuts recovered positive growth rates during the last three years of the review period, after a negative performance in 2008. The crop is used in a comprehensive manner, for direct human consumption, as fodder for livestock, or for the manufacture of industrial products. In the first case it is consumed as roasted nuts and confectionery, for the preparation of breads, cakes, cookies, salads, etc. In the latter case it is intended for the manufacture of oil, flour, peanut butter, ink, lipstick, paint and soap, among others.

PROSPECTS

  • One explanation for the expected stable demand for peanuts and walnuts over the forecast period is that most local production is exported, as well as the emergence of alternative nuts.

CATEGORY DATA

  • Table 27 Sales of Nuts by Category: Total Volume 2006-2011
  • Table 28 Sales of Nuts by Category: % Total Volume Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 29 Sales of Nuts by Distribution Format: % Total Volume Analysis 2006-2011
  • Table 30 Forecast Sales of Nuts by Category: Total Volume 2011-2016
  • Table 31 Forecast Sales of Nuts by Category: % Total Volume Growth 2011-2016

Pulses in Mexico - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • Consumption of pulses in Mexico continues to be dominated by beans, which are traditionally a very important component of the population’s diet. For instance bean taco (this is boiled or fried beans inside a corn tortilla) is traditionally a key ingredient in the staple diet of low-income urban and rural consumers. Beans and tortilla are complements in terms of nutrients making a bean taco a very nutritive meal. Furthermore, a typical lunch in Mexico includes fried beans as a side order, accompanying a wide array of main dishes.

PROSPECTS

  • No important changes are expected in terms of consumption habits among the Mexican population, thus demand for beans will suffer an eminent shortage and prices will inevitably go up. Unfortunately, the climate scenario in Mexico is expected to continue throughout 2012.

CATEGORY DATA

  • Table 32 Sales of Pulses by Category: Total Volume 2006-2011
  • Table 33 Sales of Pulses by Category: % Total Volume Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 34 Sales of Pulses by Distribution Format: % Total Volume Analysis 2006-2011
  • Table 35 Forecast Sales of Pulses by Category: Total Volume 2011-2016
  • Table 36 Forecast Sales of Pulses by Category: % Total Volume Growth 2011-2016

Starchy Roots in Mexico - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • Starchy roots’ volume is dominated by sales of potatoes, which account for 93% of sales. However, Mexican per capita consumption of potatoes, at 15kg a year, is one of the lowest levels in Latin America, and much lower than the average consumption in Europe. Population growth is the main factor behind the increase in production observed in recent decades, and to a lesser extent the change in consumption patterns, with the inclusion of larger amounts of potato in the Mexican diet because of its low prices and high calorie content.

PROSPECTS

  • Over the forecast period, the expected growth of starchy roots consumption in Mexico will be very similar. This is because these roots are used in specific dishes in Mexican kitchens, while most of its uses are industrial ones, such as the snacks industry for potatoes and production of starch for cassava. Demand for potatoes will remain stable and will not present any significant growth over the forecast period, due to Mexican eating habits.

CATEGORY DATA

  • Table 37 Sales of Starchy Roots by Category: Total Volume 2006-2011
  • Table 38 Sales of Starchy Roots by Category: % Total Volume Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 39 Sales of Starchy Roots by Distribution Format: % Total Volume Analysis 2006-2011
  • Table 40 Forecast Sales of Starchy Roots by Category: Total Volume 2011-2016
  • Table 41 Forecast Sales of Starchy Roots by Category: % Total Volume Growth 2011-2016

Sugar and Sweeteners in Mexico - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • Sweeteners are gaining ground in the preference of industries and people that consume low calorie products. This has led to a contraction in the per capita consumption of sugar from 50kg to 42kg; in contrast, fructose consumption boomed. Direct consumption by households remains stable at about 21kg per capita.

PROSPECTS

  • Consumers are expected to continue moving away from sugar to artificial products, and reduce consumption of overall sweeteners in order to control weight.

CATEGORY DATA

  • Table 42 Sales of Sugar and Sweeteners: Total Volume 2006-2011
  • Table 43 Sales of Sugar and Sweeteners: % Total Volume Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 44 Sales of Sugar and Sweeteners by Distribution Format: % Total Volume Analysis 2006-2011
  • Table 45 Forecast Sales of Sugar and Sweeteners: Total Volume 2011-2016
  • Table 46 Forecast Sales of Sugar and Sweeteners: % Total Volume Growth 2011-2016

Vegetables in Mexico - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • Distribution channels are a key factor in changing Mexicans’ eating habits. Whereas fresh vegetables and fruit have difficulties in reaching many zones due to insufficient transportation infrastructure and cooling facilities, in even the most remote corners of the country it is possible to find products such as carbonates, packaged snacks, bakery and confectionery from the main packaged food companies. Meanwhile, fresh fruit and/or vegetables can be found only in large markets or street stalls and selected independent small grocery stores.

PROSPECTS

  • Over the forecast period the government intends to reduce consumption of packaged food and beverages and increase consumption of vegetables, especially among children, who represent the main target group for the health and information campaigns, with the aim of reducing the incidence of obesity and diabetes. In that sense, it is very important for producers of vegetables and associations of producers to develop attractive marketing campaigns.

CATEGORY DATA

  • Table 47 Sales of Vegetables by Category: Total Volume 2006-2011
  • Table 48 Sales of Vegetables by Category: % Total Volume Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 49 Sales of Vegetables by Distribution Format: % Total Volume Analysis 2006-2011
  • Table 50 Forecast Sales of Vegetables by Category: Total Volume 2011-2016
  • Table 51 Forecast Sales of Vegetables by Category: % Total Volume Growth 2011-2016

Segmentation

Segmentation

This market research report includes the following:

  • Fresh Food
    • Eggs
    • Fish and Seafood
      • Crustaceans
      • Fish
      • Molluscs and Cephalopods
    • Fruits
      • Apples
      • Banana
      • Cherries
      • Cranberries/Blueberries
      • Grapefruit/Pomelo
      • Grapes
      • Lemon and Limes
      • Oranges, Tangerines and Mandarins
      • Peaches/Nectarines
      • Pears/Quinces
      • Pineapple
      • Plums/Sloes
      • Strawberries
      • Other Fruits
    • Meat
      • Beef and Veal
      • Lamb, Mutton and Goat
      • Pork
      • Poultry
      • Other Meat
    • Nuts
      • Almonds
      • Peanuts (Groundnuts)
      • Pistachio
      • Walnuts
      • Other Nuts
    • Pulses
      • Beans
      • Peas
      • Other Pulses
    • Starchy Roots
      • Cassava
      • Potatoes
      • Sweet Potatoes
      • Other Roots
    • Sugar and Sweeteners
    • Vegetables
      • Onion
      • Tomatoes
      • Other Vegetables

Statistics Included

Statistics Included

For each category and subcategory you will receive the following data in Excel format:

From Passport

  • Market sizes
  • Distribution
  • Analysis by type
  • Trade statistics - volume

Market size details:

  • Retail volume
  • Retail volume % growth
  • Retail volume per capita
  • Total volume
  • Total volume % growth
  • Total volume per capita

Methodology

Methodology

Global insight and local knowledge

With 40 years’ experience of developed and emerging markets, Euromonitor International’s research method is built on a unique combination of specialist industry knowledge and in-country research expertise.

This approach is what enables us to achieve our goal of building a market consensus view of size, shape and trends across the full distribution universe of each category. We factor in whichever channels are relevant, from large-scale grocery to direct sellers, from discount stores to local mom-and-pop outlets.

Industry specialists

Each industry we cover is managed by an Industry Manager and team of Industry Analysts who research and report on their specialist categories all year round.

Our collaborative approach to research means that these industry teams are in constant dialogue with industry players and opinion formers. The planning of our research programmes reflects latest market trends and industry events. In completing each update project, this provides invaluable input to the testing, review and finalisation of our data.

The specialist in-house teams bring together findings from all stages of the annual research process. They work closely with in-country analysts, assess and challenge data and exercise final editorial control over the publication of new data and analysis.

Country and regional analysts

Our in-country analyst network is managed by country and regional analysts in our offices around the world. Working closely with each in-country team, the regional research management team ensures that all country researchers are well schooled in best practices, from the information collected in store checks, to the dialogue we build in trade surveys. Our country analysts ensure that national reports explain the data trends and provide clear insights into the local market’s dynamics.

In-country research network

To deliver fresh insights every year in countries all around the world, we believe the strongest approach is to use analysts on the ground. They bring fluency in local language, physical proximity to the best sources, an ability to engage directly with local industry contacts, and an awareness of how the products and services we study are advertised, sold and consumed. These are essential parts of our ability to report incisively on these markets.

Research Methodology

Our research methods

Each Euromonitor International industry report is based on a core set of research techniques:

Desk research

With industry events, corporate activity, trends and new product introductions tracked year round by our industry team, desk research provides a starting point for the in-country research programme. Our in-country researchers will access the following sources:

  • National statistics offices governmental and official sources
  • National and international trade press
  • National and international trade associations
  • Industry study groups and other semi-official sources
  • Company financials and annual reports
  • Broker reports
  • Online databases
  • The financial, business and mainstream press

Accessing sources is only the first step. The ability to interpret and reconcile often conflicting information across multiple sources is a key aspect of the added value we provide.

Store checks

Store checks are an integral part of our methods for product industries. Carried out on the ground across a relevant mix of channels, the information gained provides first-hand insights into the products we are researching, specifically:

  • Place: We track products in all relevant channels, selective and mass, store and non-store
  • Product: What are innovations in products, pack sizes and formats?
  • Price: What are brand price variations across channels, how do private label’s prices compare to those of branded goods?
  • Promotion: What are marketing and merchandising trends, offers, discounts and tie-ins?

Findings are cross-referenced with brand share data analysis. The results, combined with the findings of desk research, provide a strong basis for identifying key areas of questioning to take forward into our trade survey.

Trade survey

Interaction with global players at corporate HQ and regional levels is complemented by unique local data and insights from our in-country trade surveys around the world. Through the high profile of the Euromonitor International brand, we are able to talk directly to a wide range of sources and therefore inform our analysis with the knowledge and opinions of the leading operators in the market.

Trade surveys allow us to:

  • Fill gaps in available published data per company
  • Generate a consensus view of the size, structure and strategic direction of the category
  • Access year-in-progress data where published sources are out of date
  • Evaluate the experts’ views on current trends and market developments

In building our composite industry view, we engage with a variety of personnel in key players at all points of the supply chain: materials suppliers, manufacturers, distributors, retailers and service operators. We also interview desk research sources: industry associations; study groups; and third party observers from the trade and financial press.

Our objective is to engage in conversation with trade sources in which we exchange ideas and views on the industry, sharing our work-in-progress findings on supply/demand dynamics and potential. This dialogue enhances both parties’ understanding of the local market. The scope and reach of our trade survey also serves to eliminate bias (intentional and unintentional) from any single source.

Company analysis

At a global level, our company research combines our mix of industry interaction and use of secondary sources such as annual accounts, broker reports, financial press and databases. From a data perspective, the aim is to build “top-down” estimates of major players’ total global and regional sales.

At a country level, in line with local reporting requirements, we access annual accounts, national-specific company databases and local company websites. These are all invaluable sources as we build a view of each domestic player’s size and position within very specific categories of the industry.

Forecasts

Data projections and future performance analysis are key elements of Euromonitor International’s market intelligence. Working with historic trends of 15 years or more, a key aspect of our trade survey is to engage industry insider views of the next five years. Will volumes maintain their historic trend? Will price increases or falls of recent years continue, accelerate or slow down? Will increasing demand for one product cannibalise sales of another?

Forecasts represent many of the essential conclusions we have reached about the current state of the market, how it works and how it behaves under different macro and micro conditions. Our written analysis will state the assumptions and the trade opinion behind whether our predictions are optimistic or pessimistic, so that clients can use our statistical forecasts with confidence.

Data validation

All data is subjected to an exhaustive review process, at country, regional and global levels.

The interpretation and review of sources and data inputs forms a central part of the collaboration between industry teams and country researchers. Numbers are delivered to regional and global offices with an audit trail of sources and calculations to allow for a thorough evaluation of data sense and integrity.

Upon completion of the country review phase, data is then reviewed on a comparative basis at regional and then at a global level. Comparative checks are carried out on per capita consumption and spending levels, growth rates, patterns of category and subcategory breakdowns and distribution of sales by channel. Top-down estimates are reviewed against bottom-up regional and global market and company sales totals.

Where marked differences are seen between proximate country markets or ones at similar developmental levels, supplementary research is conducted in the relevant countries to confirm and/or amend those findings. This process ensures international comparability across the database, that consistent category and subcategory definitions have been used and that all data has been correctly tested. We make sure that possible discrepancies between different published sources have been reconciled and that our interpretation of opinion and expectation from each country’s trade sources has been applied to form a coherent international pattern.

Market analysis

Another integral part of all our research programmes is that all Euromonitor International data is accompanied by clear written analysis. From a research perspective, this explains and substantiates data findings. From a client perspective, this offers unique insights into local consumption trends, routes to market, brand preferences, channel dynamics and future trends.

Our country level analysis also provides invaluable input into the ability of our central industry specialist teams to marry local insights with strategic conclusions on the direction of the market regionally and globally.

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