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Country Report

Fresh Food in the United Kingdom

Sep 2012

Price: US$1,100

About this Report

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Economic downturn hits fresh food hard

The economic downturn has caused stagnation or decline across fresh foods, with minimal growth rates the best most products can hope for. Decline in fresh food and vegetable purchases have been reported across demographics, though especially in lower-income households, as consumers often choose frozen varieties over fresh. Fresh peas, for example, have lost out to their frozen counterparts and consumers have moved to cheaper cuts within beef or simply moved species, with pork and chicken increasing, to the detriment of the more expensive red meat.

Commodity price boom hits profits and wallets

The world is facing the challenge of a new food crisis as global food prices have been rising significantly since late 2010. This has hit fresh food, especially those that have to be imported, as price rises have been another reason why consumers have been put off. Onions, for example, suffered a poor harvest in New Zealand, and seasonal fluctuations in supply and price have become more common across fresh foods. Bigger retailers have been able to absorb these shocks, and indeed have had to in order not to lose out to their competitors, but independent retailers have suffered further decline in their market share as they have such small margins to cut.

Retailers look to benefit from popularity of local produce

With the commodity boom and economic downturn, retailers are keen to stress they are stocking as much British food as possible when it is in season. Although the amount of locally produced fresh fruit and vegetables they actually stock has, in many cases, not actually increased, there has been a series of publicity events engineered by retailers to show they are more committed to buying directly from the British economy than from others. In many cases, though, this has been a response to fluctuating global prices and the uncertainty they create, with many retailers assuming it is better to avoid rising oil costs and transport prices by buying as close to home as possible.

Fair trade and organic foods decline again

2011 was another year in which organic and fair trade food was shown to be less important to consumers than savings they could make by buying their less ethical counterparts. Organic almost disappeared in meat, where it had never really caught on in the first place, and declined in fruits. New fair trade variants of products were introduced, but for the most part consumers were put off by the increased prices demanded.


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Overview

Discover the latest market trends and uncover sources of future market growth for the Fresh Food industry in United Kingdom with research from Euromonitor's team of in-country analysts.

Find hidden opportunities in the most current research data available, understand competitive threats with our detailed market analysis, and plan your corporate strategy with our expert qualitative analysis and growth projections.

If you're in the Fresh Food industry in United Kingdom, our research will save you time and money while empowering you to make informed, profitable decisions.

The Fresh Food in United Kingdom market research report includes:

  • Analysis of key supply-side and demand trends
  • Detailed segmentation of international and local products
  • Historic volumes and values, company and brand market shares
  • Five year forecasts of market trends and market growth  
  • Robust and transparent market research methodology, conducted in-country

Our market research reports answer questions such as:

  • What is the market size of Fresh Food in United Kingdom?
  • What are the major brands in United Kingdom?
  • What is the impact of commodities price fluctuations on local production and consumption?
  • What are the key campaigns and/or legislation driving fresh food sales?

Why buy this report?

  • Gain competitive intelligence about market leaders
  • Track key industry trends, opportunities and threats
  • Inform your marketing, brand, strategy and market development, sales and supply functions

This industry report originates from Passport, our Food market research database.

Table of Contents

Table of Contents

Fresh Food in the United Kingdom - Industry Overview

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Economic downturn hits fresh food hard

Commodity price boom hits profits and wallets

Retailers look to benefit from popularity of local produce

Fair trade and organic foods decline again

KEY TRENDS AND DEVELOPMENTS

The great recession creates problems for fresh foods

Commodity price rises cause pain for consumers and producers

MARKET DATA

  • Table 1 Sales of Fresh Food by Category: Total Volume 2006-2011
  • Table 2 Sales of Fresh Food by Category: % Total Volume Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 3 Sales of Fresh Food by Distribution Format: % Total Volume Analysis 2006-2011
  • Table 4 Sales of Fresh Food by Distribution Format: % Retail Volume Analysis 2006-2011
  • Table 5 Forecast Sales of Fresh Food by Category: Total Volume 2011-2016
  • Table 6 Forecast Sales of Fresh Food by Category: % Total Volume Growth 2011-2016

SOURCES

  • Summary 1 Research Sources

Eggs in the United Kingdom - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • Eggs grew slowly in 2011, an impressive achievement given the economic hardship of the times. However, eggs remain seen as a very healthy food, full of protein and an important part of a balanced diet. Free now from previous concerns over such diseases as salmonella, eggs have benefited from an increased awareness of the health benefits they carry and as such have continued to prosper.

PROSPECTS

  • Eggs are forecast to grow slowly up to 2016 and British egg producers look to be set to increase their efforts to stop illegal eggs from entering the UK. The main part of this involves convincing the government to step up its own efforts. In 2012, conventional “battery” cages will be prohibited, but the UK industry is afraid that some EU producers will still use the old, cheaper system. The British Egg Industry Council is calling for a complete ban to allay any fears consumers may have about the eggs or egg-based products they are eating.

CATEGORY DATA

  • Table 7 Sales of Eggs: Total Volume 2006-2011
  • Table 8 Sales of Eggs: % Total Volume Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 9 Sales of Eggs by Distribution Format: % Total Volume Analysis 2006-2011
  • Table 10 Forecast Sales of Eggs: Total Volume 2011-2016
  • Table 11 Forecast Sales of Eggs: % Total Volume Growth 2011-2016

Fish and Seafood in the United Kingdom - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • Fish and seafood grew slightly in 2011, with significant volume increase ruled out by the ongoing economic downturn. In large part this is to do with fresh fish losing out to frozen fish, as consumers are increasingly looking to save as much money as they possibly can. Frozen volumes are therefore increasing significantly faster than fresh. This is true of some fish more than others. Cod, for example, is popular both frozen and fresh. Salmon, on the other hand, has little popularity when it comes frozen but is far more popular when fresh.

PROSPECTS

  • Fresh fish and seafood will continue to face strong competition from frozen between 2011 and 2016 and how it responds to this will determine its future, especially if the economy continues to stagnate. Frozen fish manufacturers are making sure they are well positioned to continue to eat into fresh sales. Young's Seafood, for example, has released a range of products endorsed by someone associated above all with healthy, fresh food: Jamie Oliver.

CATEGORY DATA

  • Table 12 Sales of Fish and Seafood by Category: Total Volume 2006-2011
  • Table 13 Sales of Fish and Seafood by Category: % Total Volume Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 14 Sales of Fish and Seafood by Distribution Format: % Total Volume Analysis 2006-2011
  • Table 15 Forecast Sales of Fish and Seafood by Category: Total Volume 2011-2016
  • Table 16 Forecast Sales of Fish and Seafood by Category: % Total Volume Growth 2011-2016

Fruits in the United Kingdom - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • Fruits declined overall in 2011, as consumers showed a worryingly quick preference to move away from healthy foods in their shopping choices. The most popular fruits of apples, bananas and oranges all suffered declines in 2011 as figures from the UK’s Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA) showed poor households have cut back the most, with those in the lowest income bracket buying almost a third (30%) less fruit than in 2006.

PROSPECTS

  • Fruits are forecast to have barely positive volume growth between 2011 and 2016 even though industry bodies, supported by government agencies, are striving to argue the case that fruit should be a part of everybody’s diet. Price is of course a key factor in this, but also important is the need to make fruit fun, exciting and accessible. Aware of this trend, Del Monte and Chiquita are releasing bananas that are packaged but can be bought individually, hoping to sneak healthy food into the plastic packaging young people especially expect to package their food now. In addition Del Monte has introduced vending machines containing its fruit, again in an attempt to make it more accessible and to put fruit, which is often seen as old-fashioned, into a modern packaging and vending format.

CATEGORY DATA

  • Table 17 Sales of Fruits by Category: Total Volume 2006-2011
  • Table 18 Sales of Fruits by Category: % Total Volume Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 19 Sales of Fruits by Distribution Format: % Total Volume Analysis 2006-2011
  • Table 20 Forecast Sales of Fruits by Category: Total Volume 2011-2016
  • Table 21 Forecast Sales of Fruits by Category: % Total Volume Growth 2011-2016

Meat in the United Kingdom - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • Meat had another difficult year in 2011, hurt by rising prices as commodities increase in cost around the world and the UK economy continues to stagnate. This is not to say that British consumers’ taste for meat has decreased: vegetarianism is not increasing and volumes have, on the whole, held up without seeing significant decline. But to get the most meat for their money, consumers have been buying multipacks and taking advantage of mix and match offers in supermarket aisles wherever possible.

PROSPECTS

  • Meat is forecast to grow slowly from 2011-2016 but this is clearly contingent upon the economic circumstances of these years, which currently remains shrouded in doubt and uncertainty. The trends described above will continue, though if the euro continues to face uncertainty and decline, exports of lamb will decrease, meaning lamb producers will be forced to concentrate on the UK market again, meaning new promotions and a tapering down of the decline of lamb.

CATEGORY DATA

  • Table 22 Sales of Meat by Category: Total Volume 2006-2011
  • Table 23 Sales of Meat by Category: % Total Volume Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 24 Sales of Meat by Distribution Format: % Total Volume Analysis 2006-2011
  • Table 25 Forecast Sales of Meat by Category: Total Volume 2011-2016
  • Table 26 Forecast Sales of Meat by Category: % Total Volume Growth 2011-2016

Nuts in the United Kingdom - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • Nuts suffered another year of decline in 2011, suffering again from the effects of the economic downturn. Nuts were again hit by high prices due to poor harvests and bad weather in key growing regions. This especially hit peanuts in 2011, contributing to another year of decline for the nut. The wholesale price of peanuts from the US almost doubled from just over £1,000 per tonne to almost £2,000 per tonne, compounded by an increase in prices from other nut-growing regions such as China, India and Argentina.

PROSPECTS

  • Nuts is forecast to decline slightly, at a CAGR of -1% between 2011 and 2016. The volume size will of course remain strong, but rising costs will continue to damage any growth ambitions it may have. Walnuts will be the one slight exception to this trend of decline, but as it only accounts for just over 1,000 tonnes in the UK it is not that significant a category, although walnuts are popular as a snack or as a way to garnish a cereal.

CATEGORY DATA

  • Table 27 Sales of Nuts by Category: Total Volume 2006-2011
  • Table 28 Sales of Nuts by Category: % Total Volume Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 29 Sales of Nuts by Distribution Format: % Total Volume Analysis 2006-2011
  • Table 30 Forecast Sales of Nuts by Category: Total Volume 2011-2016
  • Table 31 Forecast Sales of Nuts by Category: % Total Volume Growth 2011-2016

Pulses in the United Kingdom - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • Pulses declined slightly in 2011 for a successive year. This is mainly due to the decline in the amount of fresh peas being eaten in the UK. The main reason for this, in a time of economic hardship, is the move by consumers to frozen peas, which are cheaper and, for many, easier, as a bag can be bought and kept in the freezer so they are ready whenever needed. And as the health benefits of peas are less well known than, say, the vitamins in carrots, eating their frozen variety is seen as less of a loss than eating other vegetables in frozen format.

PROSPECTS

  • Volume sales of pulses are forecast to grow very slightly between 2011 and 2016. Peas will continue their decline but this will be offset by the rise of other pulses. In other pulses, chickpeas, lentils and others will continue to gain in popularity as they gain from the same increase in world cuisine that is damaging fresh peas. Chickpeas and lentils are popular, especially in Middle Eastern and South Asian cuisine, which people are becoming far more confident about cooking, either using the wide range of ready-made sauces available or making their own from scratch. Other pulses are an excellent source of protein and so are perfect when cooking without meat, which, as the economy continues to stagnate, more people are being forced to go without.

CATEGORY DATA

  • Table 32 Sales of Pulses by Category: Total Volume 2006-2011
  • Table 33 Sales of Pulses by Category: % Total Volume Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 34 Sales of Pulses by Distribution Format: % Total Volume Analysis 2006-2011
  • Table 35 Forecast Sales of Pulses by Category: Total Volume 2011-2016
  • Table 36 Forecast Sales of Pulses by Category: % Total Volume Growth 2011-2016

Starchy Roots in the United Kingdom - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • Starchy roots had another year of minimal growth as the main product – potatoes – again found it difficult to show any significant increase in size. Potatoes remain popular in the UK but, when cooking at home, which more people are doing more frequently, pasta and rice and other carbohydrates are used increasingly and as such growth rate of potatoes cannot keep pace with overall demographic trends. On top of this, frozen potatoes have benefited from consumers’ desire to save money.

PROSPECTS

  • Starchy roots are forecast to register a volume CAGR of 1% between 2011 and 2016 as cassava and sweet potatoes continue to grow strongly and potatoes slightly increase their growth rate. It must be remembered also that starchy roots – at 1.8 million tonnes – accounted for the third largest volume of all fresh foods in 2011 and are staples of British cooking. Whilst we talk about the rise of foreign cooking and rice and pasta and so on, for many British households potatoes are on the dinner table five nights a week and this will not change significantly to 2016.

CATEGORY DATA

  • Table 37 Sales of Starchy Roots by Category: Total Volume 2006-2011
  • Table 38 Sales of Starchy Roots by Category: % Total Volume Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 39 Sales of Starchy Roots by Distribution Format: % Total Volume Analysis 2006-2011
  • Table 40 Forecast Sales of Starchy Roots by Category: Total Volume 2011-2016
  • Table 41 Forecast Sales of Starchy Roots by Category: % Total Volume Growth 2011-2016

Sugar and Sweeteners in the United Kingdom - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • Sugar and sweeteners declined very slightly in 2011 as this category continued to enjoy the benefits of being a staple, with its decline limited by the very centrality of sugar to all cuisines cooked in the UK. Having said that, sugar brands nonetheless compete, not only with each other, but with new sweeteners that are being introduced.

PROSPECTS

  • Volume sales of sugar and sweeteners will slightly decline between 2011 and 2016 but only very slightly and competition will remain strong between different sugar brands. It is tempting to see sugar and sweeteners as a category apart from other fresh foods, but the strategies used by manufacturers are often very similar. Ethical trading is one that is used, with Tate & Lyle making the first move in this charge with its fair trade accreditation in 2008; fair trade labels will continue to be used by sugar manufacturers as a competitive tool to assert the ethical benefits of their products.

CATEGORY DATA

  • Table 42 Sales of Sugar and Sweeteners: Total Volume 2006-2011
  • Table 43 Sales of Sugar and Sweeteners: % Total Volume Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 44 Sales of Sugar and Sweeteners by Distribution Format: % Total Volume Analysis 2006-2011
  • Table 45 Forecast Sales of Sugar and Sweeteners: Total Volume 2011-2016
  • Table 46 Forecast Sales of Sugar and Sweeteners: % Total Volume Growth 2011-2016

Vegetables in the United Kingdom - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • Vegetables grew slightly in 2011, mainly on the back of growth in tomatoes and other vegetables. Volume sales of tomatoes increased by 2% and prospered from the increased amount of home cooking as consumers cocooned themselves in their houses to save money on restaurants wherever possible. Tomatoes are often used in sauce-based dishes such as pasta or curries, which are increasingly popular in the UK. Illustrative of this is the fact premium tomatoes, such as tomatoes on the vine, are driving growth in the market, with vine tomatoes now accounting for half of the UK tomato production area. If consumers choose to forgo a restaurant and stay in, they will nonetheless want to eat well and as such buy premium tomatoes to add taste and quality to their cooking.

PROSPECTS

  • Vegetables will grow steadily between 2011 and 2016 as they continue to be staples of meals throughout the UK. As the economy continues to suffer from uncertainty, where possible consumers will continue to cook and eat at home and this will bolster vegetables performance, especially tomatoes, which are benefiting from appreciation of their health benefits. The risk for tomatoes in the UK is that more than 80% of them are imported. This means that there is always a danger that increased transport costs and fuel prices, as well as bad harvests, can lead to significant price rises here and damage sales.

CATEGORY DATA

  • Table 47 Sales of Vegetables by Category: Total Volume 2006-2011
  • Table 48 Sales of Vegetables by Category: % Total Volume Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 49 Sales of Vegetables by Distribution Format: % Total Volume Analysis 2006-2011
  • Table 50 Forecast Sales of Vegetables by Category: Total Volume 2011-2016
  • Table 51 Forecast Sales of Vegetables by Category: % Total Volume Growth 2011-2016

Segmentation

Segmentation

This market research report includes the following:

  • Fresh Food
    • Eggs
    • Fish and Seafood
      • Crustaceans
      • Fish
      • Molluscs and Cephalopods
    • Fruits
      • Apples
      • Banana
      • Cherries
      • Cranberries/Blueberries
      • Grapefruit/Pomelo
      • Grapes
      • Lemon and Limes
      • Oranges, Tangerines and Mandarins
      • Peaches/Nectarines
      • Pears/Quinces
      • Pineapple
      • Plums/Sloes
      • Strawberries
      • Other Fruits
    • Meat
      • Beef and Veal
      • Lamb, Mutton and Goat
      • Pork
      • Poultry
      • Other Meat
    • Nuts
      • Almonds
      • Peanuts (Groundnuts)
      • Pistachio
      • Walnuts
      • Other Nuts
    • Pulses
      • Beans
      • Peas
      • Other Pulses
    • Starchy Roots
      • Cassava
      • Potatoes
      • Sweet Potatoes
      • Other Roots
    • Sugar and Sweeteners
    • Vegetables
      • Onion
      • Tomatoes
      • Other Vegetables

Statistics Included

Statistics Included

For each category and subcategory you will receive the following data in Excel format:

From Passport

  • Market sizes
  • Distribution
  • Analysis by type
  • Trade statistics - volume

Market size details:

  • Retail volume
  • Retail volume % growth
  • Retail volume per capita
  • Total volume
  • Total volume % growth
  • Total volume per capita

Methodology

Methodology

Global insight and local knowledge

With 40 years’ experience of developed and emerging markets, Euromonitor International’s research method is built on a unique combination of specialist industry knowledge and in-country research expertise.

This approach is what enables us to achieve our goal of building a market consensus view of size, shape and trends across the full distribution universe of each category. We factor in whichever channels are relevant, from large-scale grocery to direct sellers, from discount stores to local mom-and-pop outlets.

Industry specialists

Each industry we cover is managed by an Industry Manager and team of Industry Analysts who research and report on their specialist categories all year round.

Our collaborative approach to research means that these industry teams are in constant dialogue with industry players and opinion formers. The planning of our research programmes reflects latest market trends and industry events. In completing each update project, this provides invaluable input to the testing, review and finalisation of our data.

The specialist in-house teams bring together findings from all stages of the annual research process. They work closely with in-country analysts, assess and challenge data and exercise final editorial control over the publication of new data and analysis.

Country and regional analysts

Our in-country analyst network is managed by country and regional analysts in our offices around the world. Working closely with each in-country team, the regional research management team ensures that all country researchers are well schooled in best practices, from the information collected in store checks, to the dialogue we build in trade surveys. Our country analysts ensure that national reports explain the data trends and provide clear insights into the local market’s dynamics.

In-country research network

To deliver fresh insights every year in countries all around the world, we believe the strongest approach is to use analysts on the ground. They bring fluency in local language, physical proximity to the best sources, an ability to engage directly with local industry contacts, and an awareness of how the products and services we study are advertised, sold and consumed. These are essential parts of our ability to report incisively on these markets.

Research Methodology

Our research methods

Each Euromonitor International industry report is based on a core set of research techniques:

Desk research

With industry events, corporate activity, trends and new product introductions tracked year round by our industry team, desk research provides a starting point for the in-country research programme. Our in-country researchers will access the following sources:

  • National statistics offices governmental and official sources
  • National and international trade press
  • National and international trade associations
  • Industry study groups and other semi-official sources
  • Company financials and annual reports
  • Broker reports
  • Online databases
  • The financial, business and mainstream press

Accessing sources is only the first step. The ability to interpret and reconcile often conflicting information across multiple sources is a key aspect of the added value we provide.

Store checks

Store checks are an integral part of our methods for product industries. Carried out on the ground across a relevant mix of channels, the information gained provides first-hand insights into the products we are researching, specifically:

  • Place: We track products in all relevant channels, selective and mass, store and non-store
  • Product: What are innovations in products, pack sizes and formats?
  • Price: What are brand price variations across channels, how do private label’s prices compare to those of branded goods?
  • Promotion: What are marketing and merchandising trends, offers, discounts and tie-ins?

Findings are cross-referenced with brand share data analysis. The results, combined with the findings of desk research, provide a strong basis for identifying key areas of questioning to take forward into our trade survey.

Trade survey

Interaction with global players at corporate HQ and regional levels is complemented by unique local data and insights from our in-country trade surveys around the world. Through the high profile of the Euromonitor International brand, we are able to talk directly to a wide range of sources and therefore inform our analysis with the knowledge and opinions of the leading operators in the market.

Trade surveys allow us to:

  • Fill gaps in available published data per company
  • Generate a consensus view of the size, structure and strategic direction of the category
  • Access year-in-progress data where published sources are out of date
  • Evaluate the experts’ views on current trends and market developments

In building our composite industry view, we engage with a variety of personnel in key players at all points of the supply chain: materials suppliers, manufacturers, distributors, retailers and service operators. We also interview desk research sources: industry associations; study groups; and third party observers from the trade and financial press.

Our objective is to engage in conversation with trade sources in which we exchange ideas and views on the industry, sharing our work-in-progress findings on supply/demand dynamics and potential. This dialogue enhances both parties’ understanding of the local market. The scope and reach of our trade survey also serves to eliminate bias (intentional and unintentional) from any single source.

Company analysis

At a global level, our company research combines our mix of industry interaction and use of secondary sources such as annual accounts, broker reports, financial press and databases. From a data perspective, the aim is to build “top-down” estimates of major players’ total global and regional sales.

At a country level, in line with local reporting requirements, we access annual accounts, national-specific company databases and local company websites. These are all invaluable sources as we build a view of each domestic player’s size and position within very specific categories of the industry.

Forecasts

Data projections and future performance analysis are key elements of Euromonitor International’s market intelligence. Working with historic trends of 15 years or more, a key aspect of our trade survey is to engage industry insider views of the next five years. Will volumes maintain their historic trend? Will price increases or falls of recent years continue, accelerate or slow down? Will increasing demand for one product cannibalise sales of another?

Forecasts represent many of the essential conclusions we have reached about the current state of the market, how it works and how it behaves under different macro and micro conditions. Our written analysis will state the assumptions and the trade opinion behind whether our predictions are optimistic or pessimistic, so that clients can use our statistical forecasts with confidence.

Data validation

All data is subjected to an exhaustive review process, at country, regional and global levels.

The interpretation and review of sources and data inputs forms a central part of the collaboration between industry teams and country researchers. Numbers are delivered to regional and global offices with an audit trail of sources and calculations to allow for a thorough evaluation of data sense and integrity.

Upon completion of the country review phase, data is then reviewed on a comparative basis at regional and then at a global level. Comparative checks are carried out on per capita consumption and spending levels, growth rates, patterns of category and subcategory breakdowns and distribution of sales by channel. Top-down estimates are reviewed against bottom-up regional and global market and company sales totals.

Where marked differences are seen between proximate country markets or ones at similar developmental levels, supplementary research is conducted in the relevant countries to confirm and/or amend those findings. This process ensures international comparability across the database, that consistent category and subcategory definitions have been used and that all data has been correctly tested. We make sure that possible discrepancies between different published sources have been reconciled and that our interpretation of opinion and expectation from each country’s trade sources has been applied to form a coherent international pattern.

Market analysis

Another integral part of all our research programmes is that all Euromonitor International data is accompanied by clear written analysis. From a research perspective, this explains and substantiates data findings. From a client perspective, this offers unique insights into local consumption trends, routes to market, brand preferences, channel dynamics and future trends.

Our country level analysis also provides invaluable input into the ability of our central industry specialist teams to marry local insights with strategic conclusions on the direction of the market regionally and globally.

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