55 pages, Jul 2016
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2015 in global cigarettes was a tale of regions performing unusual roles. China’s volume decline, the first effectively in a generation, meant that global volumes dropped significantly. Asia Pacific - previously a growth region - dragged down by China also fell overall, while Western Europe, which had struggled badly over recent years, returned to growth. All eyes now turn to the future as increasingly severe regulation and high excise levels make markets more and more challenging.
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As the Chinese market historically turned negative, 2015 volume performance was significantly poorer than 2014’s flat showing. Remarkably, the volume picture, excluding China, at -1.8%, was more robust with strong growth in major markets such as Indonesia and Turkey and stability in the US and Western Europe.
Average pack price increased solidly once more in 2015 with the global average reaching US$2.51. All regions saw growth, led again by Latin America and Eastern Europe, but rates of increase in Western Europe dragged yet again as pack price growth halved to just under 2%.
Despite volume difficulties, strong pack price growth meant that value growth accelerated marginally in fixed exchange rate terms in 2015, up to 5.2% for a total value of US$700 billion. Indeed, excluding China, like-for-like value growth was over 5.4%. All regions saw growth with the Middle East and Africa and Latin America in double figures.
The volume of illicit cigarettes consumed in 2015 fell markedly as continuing reductions in China aligned with lower demand in both Western and Eastern Europe to produce a 4% drop (2.5% excluding China). However, excluding China, penetration rose slightly in 2015 to just under 11%.
The competitive challenge posed to cigarettes by vapour products eased slightly in 2016 as the category’s growth all but halved to 32%, for a total global value of US$8 billion. Lower penetration of vapour products was a factor in cigarettes volume growth in Western Europe and the category faces regulatory uncertainty from the EU Tobacco Products Directive (TPD) and FDA Deeming Regulations.
Gain competitive intelligence about market leaders. Track key industry trends, opportunities and threats. Inform your marketing, brand, strategy and market development, sales and supply functions.