Global Tobacco: Market Outlook - Resilience in Recession?

Objectives and Parameters

Objectives and Parameters

Scope

Tobacco Product Definitions

Forecasting Background to Cigarettes - Market Volumes

Forecasting Background to Cigarettes - Market Values

Global Economy in 2009 – IMF, April 2008 View

Global Economy in 2009 – IMF, April 2009 View

Revised Forecast for the Global Cigarettes Market

Key Changes Between 2008 Forecast and 2009 Forecast

Historical Lessons

Learning Historical Lessons

Economic Crises of the Last Two Decades

The Tobacco Products Market and the Last Recession

Case Study: Indonesia and the Last Recession

Case Studies: Hong Kong and Thailand

Case Studies : Argentina, Mexico and Venezuela

Case Studies: Italy and Russia

What Really Drives the Global Tobacco Market?

Tobacco Products History and Pre-recession Outlook - Value

Tobacco Products History and Pre-recession Outlook - Volume

How Population and Prevalence Drive the Global Market

BRICs and the Population, Prevalence, Volumes Equation

China and the Population, Prevalence, Volumes Equation

Case Study: China Driving the World Cigarettes Market

Can the Global Market Grow Without China?

Up-trade or Down-trade?

Price Band Polarisation: World vs China

Impact of Tobacco Control on Volumes vs Impact of Recession

Case Study: How the MSA Impacted the US Market

How Price Drives the World Cigarettes Market

Price, Volume and Value versus Price Elasticity in Tobacco

North America: Blueprint for the Future?

Recession Strategy: Marlboro Flexible Price Banding

Quantifying the Impact: 2009-2011 Outlook

Market Forecasts: The Outlook for 2009-2011

Regional Cigarette Forecasts: Regional Comparisons

Asia Pacific: Tobacco Products Outlook

Asia Pacific: Selected Country Forecasts

Asia Pacific: India and Indonesia

Eastern Europe: Tobacco Products Outlook

Eastern Europe: Russia and Ukraine Forecasts

Eastern Europe: Other Markets

Australasia: Tobacco Products Outlook

Latin America: Tobacco Products Outlook

Latin America: Core Country Forecasts

North America: Tobacco Products Outlook

Middle East and Africa: Tobacco Products Outlook

Middle East and Africa: Selected Market Forecasts

Western Europe: Tobacco Products Outlook

Western Europe: Selected Market Forecasts

Western Europe: UK and Turkey

Winners and Losers: Developing Markets

Winners and Losers: International Cigar Forecasts

The US Cigar Market

Winners and Losers: Smoking Tobacco

Case Study: UK Smoking Tobacco

Corporate Impact

10 Key Questions and Answers

Recession: Just One of the Challenges for Tobacco in 2009

Recession and Acquisition

Recession Opportunities: State-owned Companies

Up-trade or Down-trade? Premiumisation and Recession

Up-trade or Down-trade? Pricing Strategies

PMI Recession Prospects: Which Brands Will Do Well?

BAT Recession Prospects: Which Brands Will Do Well?

JT Recession Prospects: Which Brands Will Do Well?

Imperial Recession Prospects: Which Brands Will Do Well?

Company Recession Strategies and 2009 Forecasts

Conclusions

The Tobacco Industry and the 2009 Recession

Is a Price-driven Cigarettes Market Sustainable?

Pricing Outlook Scenarios: Three Kinds of Recession

Price and Recession Strategies: Conclusions

Early Trading Indicators 2009 from the Major Companies

Early Trading Indicators from PMI

Major Cigarettes Markets: Winners and Losers

Tobacco Products: The Robust and the Vulnerable

Global Economy

Global Macro Economic Picture

Advanced Economies

Emerging Economies

Asia-Pacific: Overall Outlook

Australasia: Overall Outlook

Eastern Europe: Overall Outlook

Latin America: Overall Outlook

Middle East & Africa: Overall Outlook

North America: Overall Outlook

Western Europe: Overall Outlook

Western Europe: Performance by Main Market 2008