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Country Report

Hot Drinks in Brazil

Feb 2011

Price: $1,900

About this Report

About this Report

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Overview

Discover the latest market trends and uncover sources of future market growth for the Hot Drinks industry in Brazil with research from Euromonitor's team of in-country analysts.

Find hidden opportunities in the most current research data available, understand competitive threats with our detailed market analysis, and plan your corporate strategy with our expert qualitative analysis and growth projections.

If you're in the Hot Drinks industry in Brazil, our research will save you time and money while empowering you to make informed, profitable decisions.

When you purchase this report, you also get the data and the content from these category reports in Brazil for free:

The Hot Drinks in Brazil market research report includes:

  • Analysis of key supply-side and demand trends
  • Detailed segmentation of international and local products
  • Historic volumes and values, company and brand market shares
  • Five year forecasts of market trends and market growth  
  • Robust and transparent market research methodology, conducted in-country

Our market research reports answer questions such as:

  • What is the market size of Hot Drinks in Brazil?
  • What are the major brands in Brazil?
  • How has an increasing desire for heart healthy or fiber-added drinks affected the hot drinks industry in Brazil?
  • Are manufacturers changing packaging sizes and formats to fit an on-the-go lifestyle?
  • How have changing demographics (for example an aging population) affected the hot drinks market in Brazil?

Why buy this report?

  • Gain competitive intelligence about market leaders
  • Track key industry trends, opportunities and threats
  • Inform your marketing, brand, strategy and market development, sales and supply functions

This industry report originates from Passport, our Hot Drinks market research database.

Sample Analysis

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Coffee has reached record per capita consumption

Coffee penetration in Brazil remains high and stable. However, macroeconomic and category specific factors such as the increasing purchasing power of C class consumers, expansion of specialist coffee shops and wider variety of premium and gourmet coffee available, both fresh ground and instant, have boosted consumption to a record of 4.4kg per capita – but Brazil is still far from the market leaders in Western Europe in consumption.

Coffee pods becoming part of the strategy of major players

Although sales of coffee in pods are still marginal in Brazil, main players such as Nestlé, Sara Lee and Melitta have added pods to their coffee strategy, looking for increasing loyalty and higher margins. Nestlé has been expanding its Nespresso and Dolce Gusto systems whilst Sara Lee has launched a system in partnership with Philips that prepares not espresso, but homemade-like coffee with the Pilão brand. Melitta has announced the launch of its pods using the Easy Espresso Service open system.

Multinationals driving innovation

Hot drinks is extremely fragmented, but multinationals are still leaders in all segments. With more structured marketing teams and higher budgets, multinationals drove innovation over the review period. Sara Lee launched the Senseo system that uses pods to deliver homemade-tasting coffee. The Coca-Cola Company through Leão Júnior launched a premium line of Leão Teas as well as Matte Leão Orgânico whilst PepsiCo launched its first organic product through the Toddy brand.

Rising costs of commodities drove prices above inflation

The increasing prices of coffee, sugar and cocoa in the international markets played an important role in the price increases above inflation over the review period. Green coffee reached 13-year highs whilst sugar reached the highest price point in over 30 years in 2010. Although hot drinks manufacturers are used to commodity price fluctuations, such rapid increases proved very difficult for them to absorb and they had to be passed on to consumer prices.

On-trade channel expected to keep growing at faster rates than retail

After the entrance of Starbucks in the Brazilian market in 2006, many specialist coffee shops reformulated their menus and refurbished their spaces to offer a cosier ambience to consumers. Moreover, the number of outlets of specialist coffee shops increased by 41% between 2005 and 2010. These factors, combined with the importance of the 52,000 small- and medium-sized independent bakeries, which play a key convenience role in Brazilians’ increasingly busy lives, are expected to keep boosting on-trade sales, especially for coffee.

Table of Contents

Table of Contents

Hot Drinks in Brazil - Industry Overview

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Coffee has reached record per capita consumption

Coffee pods becoming part of the strategy of major players

Multinationals driving innovation

Rising costs of commodities drove prices above inflation

On-trade channel expected to keep growing at faster rates than retail

KEY TRENDS AND DEVELOPMENTS

Coffee pods becoming part of strategy for top players

Expansion of specialist coffee shops encourages experimentation with premium coffee

Coca-Cola driving innovation in teas through Leão Júnior

Mass-consumption organic and sustainable products slowly appearing in the Brazilian market

Increasing cost of commodities pushed prices up above inflation

MARKET DATA

  • Table 1 Retail Vs Foodservice Sales of Hot Drinks: % Volume Breakdown 2005-2010
  • Table 2 Retail Vs Foodservice Sales of Hot Drinks: % Volume Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 3 Retail Sales of Hot Drinks by Category: Volume 2005-2010
  • Table 4 Retail Sales of Hot Drinks by Category: Value 2005-2010
  • Table 5 Retail Sales of Hot Drinks by Category: % Volume Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 6 Retail Sales of Hot Drinks by Category: % Value Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 7 Foodservice Sales of Hot Drinks by Category: Volume 2005-2010
  • Table 8 Foodservice Sales of Hot Drinks by Category: % Volume Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 9 Total Sales of Hot Drinks by Category: Total Volume 2005-2010
  • Table 10 Total Sales of Hot Drinks by Category: % Total Volume Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 11 Hot Drinks Company Shares by Retail Value 2006-2010
  • Table 12 Hot Drinks Brand Shares by Retail Value 2007-2010
  • Table 13 Penetration of Private Label by Category 2005-2010
  • Table 14 Sales of Hot Drinks by Distribution Format: % Analysis 2005-2010
  • Table 15 Sales of Hot Drinks by Category and Distribution Format: % Analysis 2010
  • Table 16 Forecast Retail Vs Foodservice Sales of Hot Drinks: % Volume Breakdown 2010-2015
  • Table 17 Forecast Retail Vs Foodservice Sales of Hot Drinks: % Volume Growth 2010-2015
  • Table 18 Forecast Retail Sales of Hot Drinks by Category: Volume 2010-2015
  • Table 19 Forecast Retail Sales of Hot Drinks by Category: Value 2010-2015
  • Table 20 Forecast Retail Sales of Hot Drinks by Category: % Volume Growth 2010-2015
  • Table 21 Forecast Retail Sales of Hot Drinks by Category: % Value Growth 2010-2015
  • Table 22 Forecast Foodservice Sales of Hot Drinks by Category: Volume 2010-2015
  • Table 23 Forecast Foodservice Sales of Hot Drinks by Category: % Volume Growth 2010-2015
  • Table 24 Forecast Total Sales of Hot Drinks by Category: Total Volume 2010-2015
  • Table 25 Forecast Total Sales of Hot Drinks by Category: % Total Volume Growth 2010-2015

APPENDIX

Production/Import/Export Data

  • Table 26 Production/Imports/Exports/Apparent Consumption of Hot Drinks by Category 2009

DEFINITIONS

  • Summary 1 Research Sources

Hot Drinks in Brazil - Company Profiles

3 Corações SA - Hot Drinks - Brazil

STRATEGIC DIRECTION

KEY FACTS

COMPANY BACKGROUND

PRODUCTION

COMPETITIVE POSITIONING

  • Table 29 Summary3 Corações SA: Competitive Position 2010

Cacique de Café Solúvel, Cia - Hot Drinks - Brazil

STRATEGIC DIRECTION

KEY FACTS

COMPANY BACKGROUND

PRODUCTION

  • Summary 4 Cia Cacique de Café Solúvel: Production Statistics 2010

COMPETITIVE POSITIONING

  • Summary 5 Cia Cacique de Café Solúvel: Competitive Position 2010

Cia Iguaçu de Café Solúvel - Hot Drinks - Brazil

STRATEGIC DIRECTION

KEY FACTS

COMPANY BACKGROUND

PRODUCTION

  • Summary 8 Cia Iguaçu de Café Solúvel: Production Statistics 2010

COMPETITIVE POSITIONING

  • Summary 9 Cia Iguaçu de Café Solúvel: Competitive Position 2010

Leão Júnior SA - Hot Drinks - Brazil

STRATEGIC DIRECTION

KEY FACTS

COMPANY BACKGROUND

PRODUCTION

COMPETITIVE POSITIONING

  • Table 30 Summary3 Leão Júnior SA: Competitive Position 2010

Melitta do Brasil Indústria e Comércio Ltda - Hot Drinks - Brazil

STRATEGIC DIRECTION

KEY FACTS

COMPANY BACKGROUND

PRODUCTION

COMPETITIVE POSITIONING

  • Summary 14 Melitta do Brasil Indústria e Comércio Ltda: Competitive Position 2010

Nestlé Brasil Ltda - Hot Drinks - Brazil

STRATEGIC DIRECTION

KEY FACTS

COMPANY BACKGROUND

PRODUCTION

  • Summary 17 Nestlé Brasil Ltda: Production Statistics 2010

COMPETITIVE POSITIONING

  • Summary 18 Nestlé Brasil Ltda: Competitive Position 2010

PepsiCo do Brasil Ltda - Hot Drinks - Brazil

STRATEGIC DIRECTION

KEY FACTS

COMPANY BACKGROUND

PRODUCTION

COMPETITIVE POSITIONING

  • Summary 20 PepsiCo do Brasil Ltda: Competitive Position 2010

Sara Lee Cafés do Brasil Ltda - Hot Drinks - Brazil

STRATEGIC DIRECTION

KEY FACTS

COMPANY BACKGROUND

PRODUCTION

  • Summary 23 Sara Lee Cafés do Brasil Ltda: Production Statistics 2010

COMPETITIVE POSITIONING

  • Summary 24 Sara Lee Cafés do Brasil Ltda: Competitive Position 2010

Coffee in Brazil - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • Factors such as the high consumption of drinking coffee and a wider variety in terms of premium products – including gourmet and cappuccino versions in fresh ground coffee and instant coffee respectively – have contributed to increased sales of coffee in the Brazilian market. Consequently, coffee recorded in terms of per capita consumption almost 4.4kg in 2010.

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

  • Sara Lee held the first position within coffee in 2010, with off-trade value share of 18%, almost stable compared to the previous year. The company has focused on its leading products under the Pilão and Café do Ponto brands. In 2010, after 10 years manufacturing the União brand under license from Usina Nova América, Sara Lee stopped producing this brand in the Brazilian market because the deal was finished. Cosan, which acquired Usina Nova América in 2009, probably will return the brand to the market.

PROSPECTS

  • Fresh ground coffee will continue as the largest category within coffee during the 2010-2015 forecast period as a consequence of the strong cultural habit to drink hot coffee several times per day. On the other hand, fresh coffee beans should see the most dynamic performance in the off-trade channel both in volume and value terms, because of the growing popularity of coffee machines despite its small base in terms of market size.

CATEGORY DATA

  • Table 31 Coffee Machine Sales: 2004-2009
  • Table 32 Retail Sales of Coffee by Category: Volume 2005-2010
  • Table 33 Retail Sales of Coffee by Category: Value 2005-2010
  • Table 34 Retail Sales of Coffee by Category: % Volume Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 35 Retail Sales of Coffee by Category: % Value Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 36 Fresh Ground Coffee: Standard Vs Pods 2005-2010
  • Table 37 Coffee Company Shares by Retail Value 2006-2010
  • Table 38 Coffee Brand Shares by Retail Value 2007-2010
  • Table 39 Forecast Retail Sales of Coffee by Category: Volume 2010-2015
  • Table 40 Forecast Retail Sales of Coffee by Category: Value 2010-2015
  • Table 41 Forecast Retail Sales of Coffee by Category: % Volume Growth 2010-2015
  • Table 42 Forecast Retail Sales of Coffee by Category: % Value Growth 2010-2015
  • Table 43 Fresh Ground Coffee: Forecast Standard Vs Pods 2010-2015

Other Hot Drinks in Brazil - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • The leading manufacturers pushed up prices of chocolate-based flavoured powder drinks and malt-based hot drinks in 2010 as a result of the rising costs of cocoa and sugar in the latter part of the review period. In Brazilian retailers, both categories are exposed on the same shelves, competing in terms of prices and targeting a niche market composed by children and teenagers.

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

  • The top two multinationals – Nestlé Brasil and PepsiCo – led sales of other hot drinks in 2010, accounting for almost 61% off-trade value share in 2010. Leão Júnior ranked third thanks to its absolute leadership in other plant-based hot drinks, particularly under the Matte Leão brand.

PROSPECTS

  • Other hot drinks will see an annual growth rate of approximately 2% in total volume over the 2010-2015 forecast period, which represents a reduction compared to that registered during the 2005-2010 review period. The high penetration of such products amongst Brazilians explains this moderate expected performance. The facts that flavoured powder drinks offer convenience and that many of these products constitute a good vitamin source for children will help other hot drinks in achieving such positive performance.

CATEGORY DATA

  • Table 44 Retail Sales of Other Hot Drinks by Category: Volume 2005-2010
  • Table 45 Retail Sales of Other Hot Drinks by Category: Value 2005-2010
  • Table 46 Retail Sales of Other Hot Drinks by Category: % Volume Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 47 Retail Sales of Other Hot Drinks by Category: % Value Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 48 Other Hot Drinks: Standard Vs Pods 2005-2010
  • Table 49 Other Hot Drinks Company Shares by Retail Value 2006-2010
  • Table 50 Other Hot Drinks Brand Shares by Retail Value 2007-2010
  • Table 51 Forecast Retail Sales of Other Hot Drinks by Category: Volume 2010-2015
  • Table 52 Forecast Retail Sales of Other Hot Drinks by Category: Value 2010-2015
  • Table 53 Forecast Retail Sales of Other Hot Drinks by Category: % Volume Growth 2010-2015
  • Table 54 Forecast Retail Sales of Other Hot Drinks by Category: % Value Growth 2010-2015
  • Table 55 Other Hot Drinks: Forecast Standard Vs Pods 2010-2015

Tea in Brazil - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • To increase the consumption of tea and take advantage of the healthy image of functional teas, some manufacturers have invested in associating the properties of herbs and tea blends with health benefits. In this sense, green tea and white tea, and more recently (2010) the introduction of yellow tea and red tea, have contributed to increase sales of such products, largely due to positive publicity about their healthy ingredients.

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

  • Two leading companies – Leão Júnior and Dr Oetker – accounted for 21% off-trade value share in 2010. The first one was acquired by Coca-Cola in 2007, which received approval from CADE (Conselho Administrativo de Defesa Econômica – Administrative Council of Economic Defence) in 2009. Since then the company has increased its resources to renew the line, changing the name of nonmate herb products from Matte Leão to Chá Leão whilst the brand Matte Leão was kept only for other hot drink products (which is included in other plant-based hot drinks). The company also introduced a new line under the Leão Premium brand in June 2010, which includes a combination of fruits in other fruit/herbal tea and the newest versions of hot tea as red tea and yellow tea, which are included in other tea.

PROSPECTS

  • Tea types which offer health benefits to consumers are expected to see the strongest retail volume and value sales growth over the 2010-2015 forecast period. Other tea and green tea are expected to see the strongest retail volume sales growth, with CAGRs of 8% and 4%, respectively. Meanwhile, black tea sales are expected to continue losing share with a total decline of 4% in volume.

CATEGORY DATA

  • Table 56 Fruit/Herbal Tea by Type: % Off-trade Volume 2006-2010
  • Table 57 Other Tea by Type: % Off-trade Volume 2006-2010
  • Table 58 Retail Sales of Tea by Category: Volume 2005-2010
  • Table 59 Retail Sales of Tea by Category: Value 2005-2010
  • Table 60 Retail Sales of Tea by Category: % Volume Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 61 Retail Sales of Tea by Category: % Value Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 62 Tea Company Shares by Retail Value 2006-2010
  • Table 63 Tea Brand Shares by Retail Value 2007-2010
  • Table 64 Forecast Retail Sales of Tea by Category: Volume 2010-2015
  • Table 65 Forecast Retail Sales of Tea by Category: Value 2010-2015
  • Table 66 Forecast Retail Sales of Tea by Category: % Volume Growth 2010-2015
  • Table 67 Forecast Retail Sales of Tea by Category: % Value Growth 2010-2015

Segmentation

Segmentation

This market research report includes the following:

  • Hot Drinks
    • Coffee
      • Fresh Coffee
        • Fresh Coffee Beans
          • Espresso Fresh Coffee Beans
        • Fresh Ground Coffee
          • Arabica Ground Coffee
          • Decaffeinated Fresh Ground Coffee
          • Standard Blend Fresh Ground Coffee
      • Instant Coffee
        • Instant Standard Coffee
        • Instant Decaffeinated Coffee
    • Tea
      • Black Tea
        • Black Standard Tea
          • Loose Black Standard Tea
          • Tea Bags Black Standard
        • Black Speciality Tea
          • Loose Black Speciality Tea
          • Tea Bags Black Speciality
      • Fruit/Herbal Tea
      • Green Tea
      • Instant Tea
      • Other Tea
    • Other Hot Drinks
      • Flavoured Powder Drinks
        • Chocolate-based Flavoured Powder Drinks
        • Malt-based Hot Drinks
        • Non-Chocolate-based Flavoured Powder Drinks
      • Other Plant-based Hot Drinks

Statistics Included

Statistics Included

For each category and subcategory you will receive the following data in Excel format:

From Passport

  • Market Sizes
  • Company Shares
  • Brand Shares
  • Distribution
  • Foodservice Distribution
  • In-1s Instant Coffee
  • Off-trade vs On-trade
  • Pricing
  • Products by Ingredient
  • Products by Ingredient
  • Standard vs Pods

Market size details:

  • Retail Volume
  • Retail Volume % growth
  • Retail Volume per capita
  • Foodservice Volume
  • Foodservice Volume % growth
  • Foodservice Volume per capita
  • Total Volume
  • Total Volume % growth
  • Total Volume per capita
  • Retail Value retail selling price % growth
  • Retail Value retail selling price local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Retail Value retail selling price per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Retail Value retail selling price real (constant 2008) Prices % growth
  • Retail Value retail selling price real (constant 2008) Prices local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Retail Value retail selling price real (constant 2008) Prices per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Retail Value manufacturer selling price % growth
  • Retail Value manufacturer selling price local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Retail Value manufacturer selling price per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Retail Value manufacturer selling price real (constant 2008) Prices % growth
  • Retail Value manufacturer selling price real (constant 2008) Prices local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Retail Value manufacturer selling price real (constant 2008) Prices per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Retail RTD volume
  • Retail RTD volume % growth
  • Retail RTD volume per capita
  • Foodservice RTD volume
  • Foodservice RTD volume % growth
  • Foodservice RTD volume per capita
  • Total RTD volume
  • Total RTD volume % growth
  • Total RTD volume per capita
  • Retail Cups Volume
  • Retail Cups Volume % growth
  • Retail Cups Volume per capita
  • Foodservice Cups Volume
  • Foodservice Cups Volume % growth
  • Foodservice Cups Volume per capita
  • Total Cups Volume
  • Total Cups Volume % growth
  • Total Cups Volume per capita
  • Retail Value retail selling price Nominal (Current) Prices % growth
  • Retail Value retail selling price Nominal (Current) Prices local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Retail Value retail selling price Nominal (Current) Prices per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Retail Value manufacturer selling price Nominal (Current) Prices % growth
  • Retail Value manufacturer selling price Nominal (Current) Prices local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Retail Value manufacturer selling price Nominal (Current) Prices per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY

Methodology

Methodology

Global insight and local knowledge

With 40 years’ experience of developed and emerging markets, Euromonitor International’s research method is built on a unique combination of specialist industry knowledge and in-country research expertise.

This approach is what enables us to achieve our goal of building a market consensus view of size, shape and trends across the full distribution universe of each category. We factor in whichever channels are relevant, from large-scale grocery to direct sellers, from discount stores to local mom-and-pop outlets.

Industry specialists

Each industry we cover is managed by an Industry Manager and team of Industry Analysts who research and report on their specialist categories all year round.

Our collaborative approach to research means that these industry teams are in constant dialogue with industry players and opinion formers. The planning of our research programmes reflects latest market trends and industry events. In completing each update project, this provides invaluable input to the testing, review and finalisation of our data.

The specialist in-house teams bring together findings from all stages of the annual research process. They work closely with in-country analysts, assess and challenge data and exercise final editorial control over the publication of new data and analysis.

Country and regional analysts

Our in-country analyst network is managed by country and regional analysts in our offices around the world. Working closely with each in-country team, the regional research management team ensures that all country researchers are well schooled in best practices, from the information collected in store checks, to the dialogue we build in trade surveys. Our country analysts ensure that national reports explain the data trends and provide clear insights into the local market’s dynamics.

In-country research network

To deliver fresh insights every year in countries all around the world, we believe the strongest approach is to use analysts on the ground. They bring fluency in local language, physical proximity to the best sources, an ability to engage directly with local industry contacts, and an awareness of how the products and services we study are advertised, sold and consumed. These are essential parts of our ability to report incisively on these markets.

Research Methodology

Our research methods

Each Euromonitor International industry report is based on a core set of research techniques:

Desk research

With industry events, corporate activity, trends and new product introductions tracked year round by our industry team, desk research provides a starting point for the in-country research programme. Our in-country researchers will access the following sources:

  • National statistics offices governmental and official sources
  • National and international trade press
  • National and international trade associations
  • Industry study groups and other semi-official sources
  • Company financials and annual reports
  • Broker reports
  • Online databases
  • The financial, business and mainstream press

Accessing sources is only the first step. The ability to interpret and reconcile often conflicting information across multiple sources is a key aspect of the added value we provide.

Store checks

Store checks are an integral part of our methods for product industries. Carried out on the ground across a relevant mix of channels, the information gained provides first-hand insights into the products we are researching, specifically:

  • Place: We track products in all relevant channels, selective and mass, store and non-store
  • Product: What are innovations in products, pack sizes and formats?
  • Price: What are brand price variations across channels, how do private label’s prices compare to those of branded goods?
  • Promotion: What are marketing and merchandising trends, offers, discounts and tie-ins?

Findings are cross-referenced with brand share data analysis. The results, combined with the findings of desk research, provide a strong basis for identifying key areas of questioning to take forward into our trade survey.

Trade survey

Interaction with global players at corporate HQ and regional levels is complemented by unique local data and insights from our in-country trade surveys around the world. Through the high profile of the Euromonitor International brand, we are able to talk directly to a wide range of sources and therefore inform our analysis with the knowledge and opinions of the leading operators in the market.

Trade surveys allow us to:

  • Fill gaps in available published data per company
  • Generate a consensus view of the size, structure and strategic direction of the category
  • Access year-in-progress data where published sources are out of date
  • Evaluate the experts’ views on current trends and market developments

In building our composite industry view, we engage with a variety of personnel in key players at all points of the supply chain: materials suppliers, manufacturers, distributors, retailers and service operators. We also interview desk research sources: industry associations; study groups; and third party observers from the trade and financial press.

Our objective is to engage in conversation with trade sources in which we exchange ideas and views on the industry, sharing our work-in-progress findings on supply/demand dynamics and potential. This dialogue enhances both parties’ understanding of the local market. The scope and reach of our trade survey also serves to eliminate bias (intentional and unintentional) from any single source.

Company analysis

At a global level, our company research combines our mix of industry interaction and use of secondary sources such as annual accounts, broker reports, financial press and databases. From a data perspective, the aim is to build “top-down” estimates of major players’ total global and regional sales.

At a country level, in line with local reporting requirements, we access annual accounts, national-specific company databases and local company websites. These are all invaluable sources as we build a view of each domestic player’s size and position within very specific categories of the industry.

Forecasts

Data projections and future performance analysis are key elements of Euromonitor International’s market intelligence. Working with historic trends of 15 years or more, a key aspect of our trade survey is to engage industry insider views of the next five years. Will volumes maintain their historic trend? Will price increases or falls of recent years continue, accelerate or slow down? Will increasing demand for one product cannibalise sales of another?

Forecasts represent many of the essential conclusions we have reached about the current state of the market, how it works and how it behaves under different macro and micro conditions. Our written analysis will state the assumptions and the trade opinion behind whether our predictions are optimistic or pessimistic, so that clients can use our statistical forecasts with confidence.

Data validation

All data is subjected to an exhaustive review process, at country, regional and global levels.

The interpretation and review of sources and data inputs forms a central part of the collaboration between industry teams and country researchers. Numbers are delivered to regional and global offices with an audit trail of sources and calculations to allow for a thorough evaluation of data sense and integrity.

Upon completion of the country review phase, data is then reviewed on a comparative basis at regional and then at a global level. Comparative checks are carried out on per capita consumption and spending levels, growth rates, patterns of category and subcategory breakdowns and distribution of sales by channel. Top-down estimates are reviewed against bottom-up regional and global market and company sales totals.

Where marked differences are seen between proximate country markets or ones at similar developmental levels, supplementary research is conducted in the relevant countries to confirm and/or amend those findings. This process ensures international comparability across the database, that consistent category and subcategory definitions have been used and that all data has been correctly tested. We make sure that possible discrepancies between different published sources have been reconciled and that our interpretation of opinion and expectation from each country’s trade sources has been applied to form a coherent international pattern.

Market analysis

Another integral part of all our research programmes is that all Euromonitor International data is accompanied by clear written analysis. From a research perspective, this explains and substantiates data findings. From a client perspective, this offers unique insights into local consumption trends, routes to market, brand preferences, channel dynamics and future trends.

Our country level analysis also provides invaluable input into the ability of our central industry specialist teams to marry local insights with strategic conclusions on the direction of the market regionally and globally.

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