You are here: HomeSolutionsIndustriesHot Drinks
print my pages

Country Report

Hot Drinks in Bulgaria

May 2011

Price: $1,900

About this Report

About this Report

Delivery method: instant download
Report format: PDF doc_pdf.png (download a sample)
Market statistics: Excel workbook doc_excel_table.png (download a sample)

Overview

Discover the latest market trends and uncover sources of future market growth for the Hot Drinks industry in Bulgaria with research from Euromonitor's team of in-country analysts.

Find hidden opportunities in the most current research data available, understand competitive threats with our detailed market analysis, and plan your corporate strategy with our expert qualitative analysis and growth projections.

If you're in the Hot Drinks industry in Bulgaria, our research will save you time and money while empowering you to make informed, profitable decisions.

When you purchase this report, you also get the data and the content from these category reports in Bulgaria for free:

The Hot Drinks in Bulgaria market research report includes:

  • Analysis of key supply-side and demand trends
  • Detailed segmentation of international and local products
  • Historic volumes and values, company and brand market shares
  • Five year forecasts of market trends and market growth  
  • Robust and transparent market research methodology, conducted in-country

Our market research reports answer questions such as:

  • What is the market size of Hot Drinks in Bulgaria?
  • What are the major brands in Bulgaria?
  • How has an increasing desire for heart healthy or fiber-added drinks affected the hot drinks industry in Bulgaria?
  • Are manufacturers changing packaging sizes and formats to fit an on-the-go lifestyle?
  • How have changing demographics (for example an aging population) affected the hot drinks market in Bulgaria?

Why buy this report?

  • Gain competitive intelligence about market leaders
  • Track key industry trends, opportunities and threats
  • Inform your marketing, brand, strategy and market development, sales and supply functions

This industry report originates from Passport, our Hot Drinks market research database.

Sample Analysis

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Hot drinks return to growth

Following strong volume sales growth in the years preceding the global economic crisis, the hot drinks sector in Bulgaria came to a halt in 2009. In 2010 the sector returned to a moderate growth in the off-trade channel, but is still unable to reach its pre-crisis levels, as consumers are more cautious, and have tighter budgets for hot drinks. On other hand the sales through on-trade continue to decline, as the coffee drinking culture slowly start to die out.

Economic crisis leaves a profound mark on the performance of hot drinks

The economic crisis caused increasing job losses and employment insecurity, has adversely affected the growth of hot drinks. Consumers preferred to cut back on going out, purchased fewer non-essential items and traded down. Premium brands were most affected by this trend – while until 2009 premiumisation and trading up to mid and high-price coffee and imported tea was key, in 2009 and partially in 2010 exactly the opposite trend held true.

Demand for cheaper products favours multinational and economy brands

The leading multinational companies suffered a slight decline in their shares but still managed to remain in the leading positions, with a significant share difference between themselves and local producers. The economic crisis favoured those companies that were able to offer good value and low prices. The multinational companies coped well since they focused on below-the-line activities and reduced prices and offered bundled pack promotions. Additionally, emerging economy and standard brands that were very dynamic in terms of distribution and below-the-line activities managed to increase their shares, as was the case with Elite (Fort Koffiebranderij OOD) and Tchibo (Tchibo GmbH) brands.

The off-trade channel grows in importance as the economy slows down

Off-trade continues to be the leading channel in terms of volume sales and generates more than two-thirds of the total volume sales. In the context of an economic slowdown, this channel has increased in importance, despite the overall market decline, as it performed better than the on-trade channel, registering a smaller decline. Changing consumer lifestyles as a result of the economic recession meant that consumers have opted go out less and bars and restaurants have seen significant reductions in sales.

Volume growth is expected to return in the forecast period

Volume sales are expected to return to growth in 2010 as the economy gradually starts to recover and consumers regain their spending habits. However, the forecast period volume growth rates will be significantly lower than those of the review period which indicates that consumers will continue to look for the best possible price on the market and that the importance of the reduced price and value-added promotions will continue. The leading companies, Nestlé Bulgaria AD, Kraft Foods Bulgaria AD and Fort Koffiebranderij OOD, as well as aggressive new entrants such as Tchibo GmbH, are expected to top the share rankings and continue to introduce the most innovative or best-priced products.

Table of Contents

Table of Contents

Hot Drinks in Bulgaria - Industry Overview

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Hot drinks return to growth

Economic crisis leaves a profound mark on the performance of hot drinks

Demand for cheaper products favours multinational and economy brands

The off-trade channel grows in importance as the economy slows down

Volume growth is expected to return in the forecast period

KEY TRENDS AND DEVELOPMENTS

Economic downturn slowed hot drinks growth and affects all categories

Globalisation and Westernisation of hot drinking habits creates diversity

Manufacturers tailor product features to suit changing demographic factors

Macroeconomic factors impact the expansion pace of the modern retail trade

Innovative strategies bound to strengthen the market leaders position

MARKET INDICATORS

  • Table 1 Retail Vs Foodservice Sales of Hot Drinks: % Volume Breakdown 2005-2010
  • Table 2 Retail Vs Foodservice Sales of Hot Drinks: % Volume Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 3 Retail Sales of Hot Drinks by Category: Volume 2005-2010
  • Table 4 Retail Sales of Hot Drinks by Category: Value 2005-2010
  • Table 5 Retail Sales of Hot Drinks by Category: % Volume Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 6 Retail Sales of Hot Drinks by Category: % Value Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 7 Foodservice Sales of Hot Drinks by Category: Volume 2005-2010
  • Table 8 Foodservice Sales of Hot Drinks by Category: % Volume Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 9 Total Sales of Hot Drinks by Category: Total Volume 2005-2010
  • Table 10 Total Sales of Hot Drinks by Category: % Total Volume Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 11 Hot Drinks Company Shares by Retail Value 2006-2010
  • Table 12 Hot Drinks Brand Shares by Retail Value 2007-2010
  • Table 13 Sales of Hot Drinks by Distribution Format: % Analysis 2005-2010
  • Table 14 Sales of Hot Drinks by Category and Distribution Format: % Analysis 2010
  • Table 15 Forecast Retail Vs Foodservice Sales of Hot Drinks: % Volume Breakdown 2010-2015
  • Table 16 Forecast Retail Vs Foodservice Sales of Hot Drinks: % Volume Growth 2010-2015
  • Table 17 Forecast Retail Sales of Hot Drinks by Category: Volume 2010-2015
  • Table 18 Forecast Retail Sales of Hot Drinks by Category: Value 2010-2015
  • Table 19 Forecast Retail Sales of Hot Drinks by Category: % Volume Growth 2010-2015
  • Table 20 Forecast Retail Sales of Hot Drinks by Category: % Value Growth 2010-2015
  • Table 21 Forecast Foodservice Sales of Hot Drinks by Category: Volume 2010-2015
  • Table 22 Forecast Foodservice Sales of Hot Drinks by Category: % Volume Growth 2010-2015
  • Table 23 Forecast Total Sales of Hot Drinks by Category: Total Volume 2010-2015
  • Table 24 Forecast Total Sales of Hot Drinks by Category: % Total Volume Growth 2010-2015

APPENDIX

Published Data Comparisons

DEFINITIONS

  • Summary 1 Research Sources

Hot Drinks in Bulgaria - Company Profiles

Balkam AD in Hot Drinks (Bulgaria)

STRATEGIC DIRECTION

KEY FACTS

COMPANY BACKGROUND

PRODUCTION

COMPETITIVE POSITIONING

  • Summary 3 Balkam AD: Competitive Position 2010

Bioprogramma OOD in Hot Drinks (Bulgaria)

STRATEGIC DIRECTION

KEY FACTS

COMPANY BACKGROUND

PRODUCTION

COMPETITIVE POSITIONING

  • Summary 5 Bioprogramma OOD: Competitive Position 2010

Bioset OOD in Hot Drinks (Bulgaria)

STRATEGIC DIRECTION

KEY FACTS

COMPANY BACKGROUND

PRODUCTION

COMPETITIVE POSITIONING

  • Summary 7 Bioset OOD: Competitive Position 2010

Mercury AD in Hot Drinks (Bulgaria)

STRATEGIC DIRECTION

KEY FACTS

COMPANY BACKGROUND

PRODUCTION

COMPETITIVE POSITIONING

  • Summary 9 Mercury AD: Competitive Position 2010

Coffee in Bulgaria - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • After enjoying years of unrivalled growth within hot drinks, coffee finally recorded negative development in 2010. Although Bulgarians are heavy coffee drinkers, the economic downturn with rising unemployment rates, fear of impending job losses and the desire to be rational when shopping prompted consumers to cut down on coffee drinking or to favour cheap brands or unpackaged coffee. Additionally, while Euromonitor International’s data excludes institutional sales, redundancies in many businesses impacted negatively on coffee consumption.

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

  • Kraft Foods is the leading company in volume terms however, Nestlé is ranked first according to value sales. The popularity of Kraft Foods’s economy brand Nova Brasilia secured the leading position in the brand volume rankings. On the other hand, Nestlé achieved leadership in value terms as a result of the higher unit prices of its instant coffee brands.

PROSPECTS

  • The future looks better for coffee and there are signs that the effects of the crisis will not be negative throughout the whole forecast period. However, it likely that coffee will not manage to reach the excellent performance results of the review period in volume terms. Total volume growth in the forecast period is expected to reach a CAGR of 2%, which is very similar to the 2% in the review period. The coffee category is relatively mature and has high penetration which will restrict volume growth possibilities for companies. Viable growth strategies will therefore centre on inducing consumers to trade up. Unit prices are expected to increase in the first years of the forecast period as a slight economic improvement is expected for 2011 and consumers may return to normal lifestyles that involve going out regularly which will favour coffee.

CATEGORY DATA

  • Table 25 Coffee Machine Sales: 2003-2009
  • Table 26 Retail Sales of Coffee by Category: Volume 2005-2010
  • Table 27 Retail Sales of Coffee by Category: Value 2005-2010
  • Table 28 Retail Sales of Coffee by Category: % Volume Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 29 Retail Sales of Coffee by Category: % Value Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 30 Fresh Ground Coffee: Standard Vs Pods 2005-2010
  • Table 31 Coffee Company Shares by Retail Value 2006-2010
  • Table 32 Coffee Brand Shares by Retail Value 2007-2010
  • Table 33 Forecast Retail Sales of Coffee by Category: Volume 2010-2015
  • Table 34 Forecast Retail Sales of Coffee by Category: Value 2010-2015
  • Table 35 Forecast Retail Sales of Coffee by Category: % Volume Growth 2010-2015
  • Table 36 Forecast Retail Sales of Coffee by Category: % Value Growth 2010-2015
  • Table 37 Fresh Ground Coffee: Forecast Standard Vs Pods 2010-2015

Other Hot Drinks in Bulgaria - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • The performance of other hot drinks was much worse that of hot drinks as a whole in 2010, as the sector contracted, while the total hot drinks sales grew in 2010. The perception that the category’s products are for children has not helped it to acquire a wider consumer base. The main brands aimed at children are Nesquik from Nestlé, Bioset Cocoa by Bioset and Pandicao by Gellwe, as well as other small brands with distribution in the independent small grocers channel. The main brands that appeal to adult consumers are Milka by Kraft Foods Bulgaria and La Festa by Tymbark.

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

  • Nestlé remained the leader in other hot drinks and in 2010 accounted for a 43% value-share. The company’s marketing campaign - ‘Where is the milk’ focused consumer attention on its Nesquik brand which it has positioned as a nutritional product for children. Moreover, Nesquik benefited from frequent below the line support in the form of bundled pack promotions with Fibella milk, gifts and discounts.

PROSPECTS

  • Other hot drinks is expected to display two diverging trends over the forecast period: while positive volume growth is expected, value sales are expected to decline in real terms. The volume CAGR of 1% will represent an improved performance compared to the review period. In constant value terms the forecast period will also see an improved performance; although an annual decline of -1% is anticipated, this is an improvement on the annual decline of -5% seen over the review period. The accelerated volume growth is expected to stem from Nestlé’s 2010 strong campaign for Nesquik. Other hot drinks is underdeveloped and has low penetration which translates into strong opportunities for growth. The advertising message of Nesquik suggests that value-added products with specific health-related features such as milk, vitamins and no additional sugar have the potential to achieve success. Indeed, the company could open market opportunities within the category and thus attract new entrants.

CATEGORY DATA

  • Table 38 Retail Sales of Other Hot Drinks by Category: Volume 2005-2010
  • Table 39 Retail Sales of Other Hot Drinks by Category: Value 2005-2010
  • Table 40 Retail Sales of Other Hot Drinks by Category: % Volume Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 41 Retail Sales of Other Hot Drinks by Category: % Value Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 42 Other Hot Drinks: Standard Vs Pods 2005-2010
  • Table 43 Other Hot Drinks Company Shares by Retail Value 2006-2010
  • Table 44 Other Hot Drinks Brand Shares by Retail Value 2007-2010
  • Table 45 Forecast Retail Sales of Other Hot Drinks by Category: Volume 2010-2015
  • Table 46 Forecast Retail Sales of Other Hot Drinks by Category: Value 2010-2015
  • Table 47 Forecast Retail Sales of Other Hot Drinks by Category: % Volume Growth 2010-2015
  • Table 48 Forecast Retail Sales of Other Hot Drinks by Category: % Value Growth 2010-2015
  • Table 49 Other Hot Drinks: Forecast Standard Vs Pods 2010-2015

Tea in Bulgaria - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • In 2010, tea category saw growth rates recovered from the hit of the crisis; in the on-trade the rate of decline fell and off trade saw growth rates increase. Volume sales of the largest category, fruit/herbal tea, grew 2% in volume. The growth came mainly from novel types of imported tea. Since the black, green and other tea types are more expensive than the locally produced herbal teas, the economic difficulties being faced by consumers restricted the consumer base for high-end teas. In times of economic crisis, consumers preferred to stick to their established consumption patterns, and consumed the ubiquitous herbal tea of local origin (single or mixed herb teas), although they occasionally opted to buy ‘healthy’ teas. Green and other tea are perceived as being healthy products and they outperformed all other tea types, although their volume growth rates slowed down significantly in 2010 compared to their respective review period averages.

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

  • The share rankings of local tea players increased in 2010. The top three tea companies, all of which are domestic operators, accounted for a combined off-trade value-share of 18% in 2010. United Traders and Twining & Co, the two largest companies, which have led the category since the beginning of the review period, continue to occupy the leading positions and saw slight increases in share in 2010. United Traders enjoys the leading position due to its strong distribution, wide product portfolio and strong consumer recognition. The third largest competitor, local operator Bioprogramma, saw its share falling dramatically.

PROSPECTS

  • The sales of tea over the forecast period are expected to grow more rapidly than in the review period. In constant value terms, the forecast period will see an improved performance, with a CAGR of 3% compared to an annual decline of -3% over the review period. Black standard tea registered a decline over the review period and the decline of the forecast period is expected to be less severe. Despite teahouses becoming more fashionable, it is unlikely that Bulgarians will switch from heavy coffee consumption to drinking tea in the same way. However, the improved value performance of tea is expected to be related to consumers eventual trading up within this category. Unless tea companies invest in promoting their image, tea growth will continue to be overshadowed by coffee as the latter has all the necessary prerequisites for growth and a loyal consumer base, presence of important international players, strong new product development and advertising.

CATEGORY DATA

  • Table 50 Retail Sales of Tea by Category: Volume 2005-2010
  • Table 51 Retail Sales of Tea by Category: Value 2005-2010
  • Table 52 Retail Sales of Tea by Category: % Volume Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 53 Retail Sales of Tea by Category: % Value Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 54 Tea: Standard Vs Pods 2005-2010
  • Table 55 Tea Company Shares by Retail Value 2006-2010
  • Table 56 Tea Brand Shares by Retail Value 2007-2010
  • Table 57 Forecast Retail Sales of Tea by Category: Volume 2010-2015
  • Table 58 Forecast Retail Sales of Tea by Category: Value 2010-2015
  • Table 59 Forecast Retail Sales of Tea by Category: % Volume Growth 2010-2015
  • Table 60 Forecast Retail Sales of Tea by Category: % Value Growth 2010-2015
  • Table 61 Tea: Forecast Standard Vs Pods 2010-2015

Segmentation

Segmentation

This market research report includes the following:

  • Hot Drinks
    • Coffee
      • Fresh Coffee
        • Fresh Coffee Beans
          • Fresh Ground Coffee
          • Instant Coffee
            • Instant Standard Coffee
            • Instant Decaffeinated Coffee
        • Tea
          • Black Tea
            • Black Standard Tea
              • Loose Black Standard Tea
              • Tea Bags Black Standard
            • Black Speciality Tea
              • Loose Black Speciality Tea
              • Tea Bags Black Speciality
          • Fruit/Herbal Tea
          • Green Tea
          • Instant Tea
          • Other Tea
        • Other Hot Drinks
          • Flavoured Powder Drinks
            • Chocolate-based Flavoured Powder Drinks
            • Malt-based Hot Drinks
            • Non-Chocolate-based Flavoured Powder Drinks
          • Other Plant-based Hot Drinks

      Statistics Included

      Statistics Included

      For each category and subcategory you will receive the following data in Excel format:

      From Passport

      • Market sizes
      • Company shares
      • Brand shares
      • Distribution
      • Foodservice distribution
      • In-1s instant coffee
      • Off-trade vs on-trade
      • Pricing
      • Products by ingredient
      • Products by ingredient
      • Standard vs pods

      Market size details:

      • Retail volume
      • Retail volume % growth
      • Retail volume per capita
      • Foodservice volume
      • Foodservice volume % growth
      • Foodservice volume per capita
      • Total volume
      • Total volume % growth
      • Total volume per capita
      • Retail value retail selling price % growth
      • Retail value retail selling price local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
      • Retail value retail selling price per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
      • Retail value retail selling price real (constant 2008) prices % growth
      • Retail value retail selling price real (constant 2008) prices local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
      • Retail value retail selling price real (constant 2008) prices per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
      • Retail value manufacturer selling price % growth
      • Retail value manufacturer selling price local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
      • Retail value manufacturer selling price per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
      • Retail value manufacturer selling price real (constant 2008) prices % growth
      • Retail value manufacturer selling price real (constant 2008) prices local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
      • Retail value manufacturer selling price real (constant 2008) prices per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
      • Retail rtd volume
      • Retail rtd volume % growth
      • Retail rtd volume per capita
      • Foodservice rtd volume
      • Foodservice rtd volume % growth
      • Foodservice rtd volume per capita
      • Total rtd volume
      • Total rtd volume % growth
      • Total rtd volume per capita
      • Retail cups volume
      • Retail cups volume % growth
      • Retail cups volume per capita
      • Foodservice cups volume
      • Foodservice cups volume % growth
      • Foodservice cups volume per capita
      • Total cups volume
      • Total cups volume % growth
      • Total cups volume per capita
      • Retail value retail selling price nominal (current) prices % growth
      • Retail value retail selling price nominal (current) prices local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
      • Retail value retail selling price nominal (current) prices per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
      • Retail value manufacturer selling price nominal (current) prices % growth
      • Retail value manufacturer selling price nominal (current) prices local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
      • Retail value manufacturer selling price nominal (current) prices per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY

      Methodology

      Methodology

      Global insight and local knowledge

      With 40 years’ experience of developed and emerging markets, Euromonitor International’s research method is built on a unique combination of specialist industry knowledge and in-country research expertise.

      This approach is what enables us to achieve our goal of building a market consensus view of size, shape and trends across the full distribution universe of each category. We factor in whichever channels are relevant, from large-scale grocery to direct sellers, from discount stores to local mom-and-pop outlets.

      Industry specialists

      Each industry we cover is managed by an Industry Manager and team of Industry Analysts who research and report on their specialist categories all year round.

      Our collaborative approach to research means that these industry teams are in constant dialogue with industry players and opinion formers. The planning of our research programmes reflects latest market trends and industry events. In completing each update project, this provides invaluable input to the testing, review and finalisation of our data.

      The specialist in-house teams bring together findings from all stages of the annual research process. They work closely with in-country analysts, assess and challenge data and exercise final editorial control over the publication of new data and analysis.

      Country and regional analysts

      Our in-country analyst network is managed by country and regional analysts in our offices around the world. Working closely with each in-country team, the regional research management team ensures that all country researchers are well schooled in best practices, from the information collected in store checks, to the dialogue we build in trade surveys. Our country analysts ensure that national reports explain the data trends and provide clear insights into the local market’s dynamics.

      In-country research network

      To deliver fresh insights every year in countries all around the world, we believe the strongest approach is to use analysts on the ground. They bring fluency in local language, physical proximity to the best sources, an ability to engage directly with local industry contacts, and an awareness of how the products and services we study are advertised, sold and consumed. These are essential parts of our ability to report incisively on these markets.

      Research Methodology

      Our research methods

      Each Euromonitor International industry report is based on a core set of research techniques:

      Desk research

      With industry events, corporate activity, trends and new product introductions tracked year round by our industry team, desk research provides a starting point for the in-country research programme. Our in-country researchers will access the following sources:

      • National statistics offices governmental and official sources
      • National and international trade press
      • National and international trade associations
      • Industry study groups and other semi-official sources
      • Company financials and annual reports
      • Broker reports
      • Online databases
      • The financial, business and mainstream press

      Accessing sources is only the first step. The ability to interpret and reconcile often conflicting information across multiple sources is a key aspect of the added value we provide.

      Store checks

      Store checks are an integral part of our methods for product industries. Carried out on the ground across a relevant mix of channels, the information gained provides first-hand insights into the products we are researching, specifically:

      • Place: We track products in all relevant channels, selective and mass, store and non-store
      • Product: What are innovations in products, pack sizes and formats?
      • Price: What are brand price variations across channels, how do private label’s prices compare to those of branded goods?
      • Promotion: What are marketing and merchandising trends, offers, discounts and tie-ins?

      Findings are cross-referenced with brand share data analysis. The results, combined with the findings of desk research, provide a strong basis for identifying key areas of questioning to take forward into our trade survey.

      Trade survey

      Interaction with global players at corporate HQ and regional levels is complemented by unique local data and insights from our in-country trade surveys around the world. Through the high profile of the Euromonitor International brand, we are able to talk directly to a wide range of sources and therefore inform our analysis with the knowledge and opinions of the leading operators in the market.

      Trade surveys allow us to:

      • Fill gaps in available published data per company
      • Generate a consensus view of the size, structure and strategic direction of the category
      • Access year-in-progress data where published sources are out of date
      • Evaluate the experts’ views on current trends and market developments

      In building our composite industry view, we engage with a variety of personnel in key players at all points of the supply chain: materials suppliers, manufacturers, distributors, retailers and service operators. We also interview desk research sources: industry associations; study groups; and third party observers from the trade and financial press.

      Our objective is to engage in conversation with trade sources in which we exchange ideas and views on the industry, sharing our work-in-progress findings on supply/demand dynamics and potential. This dialogue enhances both parties’ understanding of the local market. The scope and reach of our trade survey also serves to eliminate bias (intentional and unintentional) from any single source.

      Company analysis

      At a global level, our company research combines our mix of industry interaction and use of secondary sources such as annual accounts, broker reports, financial press and databases. From a data perspective, the aim is to build “top-down” estimates of major players’ total global and regional sales.

      At a country level, in line with local reporting requirements, we access annual accounts, national-specific company databases and local company websites. These are all invaluable sources as we build a view of each domestic player’s size and position within very specific categories of the industry.

      Forecasts

      Data projections and future performance analysis are key elements of Euromonitor International’s market intelligence. Working with historic trends of 15 years or more, a key aspect of our trade survey is to engage industry insider views of the next five years. Will volumes maintain their historic trend? Will price increases or falls of recent years continue, accelerate or slow down? Will increasing demand for one product cannibalise sales of another?

      Forecasts represent many of the essential conclusions we have reached about the current state of the market, how it works and how it behaves under different macro and micro conditions. Our written analysis will state the assumptions and the trade opinion behind whether our predictions are optimistic or pessimistic, so that clients can use our statistical forecasts with confidence.

      Data validation

      All data is subjected to an exhaustive review process, at country, regional and global levels.

      The interpretation and review of sources and data inputs forms a central part of the collaboration between industry teams and country researchers. Numbers are delivered to regional and global offices with an audit trail of sources and calculations to allow for a thorough evaluation of data sense and integrity.

      Upon completion of the country review phase, data is then reviewed on a comparative basis at regional and then at a global level. Comparative checks are carried out on per capita consumption and spending levels, growth rates, patterns of category and subcategory breakdowns and distribution of sales by channel. Top-down estimates are reviewed against bottom-up regional and global market and company sales totals.

      Where marked differences are seen between proximate country markets or ones at similar developmental levels, supplementary research is conducted in the relevant countries to confirm and/or amend those findings. This process ensures international comparability across the database, that consistent category and subcategory definitions have been used and that all data has been correctly tested. We make sure that possible discrepancies between different published sources have been reconciled and that our interpretation of opinion and expectation from each country’s trade sources has been applied to form a coherent international pattern.

      Market analysis

      Another integral part of all our research programmes is that all Euromonitor International data is accompanied by clear written analysis. From a research perspective, this explains and substantiates data findings. From a client perspective, this offers unique insights into local consumption trends, routes to market, brand preferences, channel dynamics and future trends.

      Our country level analysis also provides invaluable input into the ability of our central industry specialist teams to marry local insights with strategic conclusions on the direction of the market regionally and globally.

      my pages

      Want to find out more about this report?