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Country Report

Hot Drinks in Japan

Mar 2012

Price: US$1,900

About this Report

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Hot drinks contracts in volume and value during 2011

Hot drinks in Japan contracted slightly in volume terms during 2011. Various factors contributed to this contraction in hot drinks, including rising safety concerns, the increasing unit price of coffee and the widespread preference for convenience. The disastrous radiation leak which followed the cataclysmic earthquake and tsunami which struck eastern Japan in March 2011 led to many consumers becoming hesitant to purchase locally harvested green tea. Ongoing unit price increases in coffee discouraged Japanese consumers from purchasing coffee amidst a growing preference for convenience which drove many Japanese consumers to migrate towards soft drinks such as RTD tea.

The Fukushima radiation disaster raises safety concerns

The radiation leak from the Fukushima nuclear power plant, which was badly damaged by the cataclysmic earthquake and tsunami which struck Eastern Japan in March 2011 resulted in dramatic shifts in hot drinks in Japan, with demand for green tea particularly negatively affected as domestically harvested tea leaves were found to contain unsafe levels of radiation across a wide area. In combination with reports of radioactive contamination in many other products, Japanese consumers became increasingly concerned about the safety of green tea during 2011. Moreover, these issues were exacerbated by the fact that green tea in Japan is a highly fragmented category, as only a limited number of large companies such as Ito En were able to undertake sufficient safety measures in order to maintain credibility. This led to many consumers migrating from their favourite minor brands to major brands as they sought reassurance about the safety of their green tea.

Nestlé maintains its leading position in hot drinks

Nestlé Japan Ltd remained the major force in hot drinks in Japan during 2011, with domestic manufacturers Ajinomoto General Foods Inc (AGF)—a partnership with Kraft Foods Inc—ItoEn Ltd, and UCC Ueshima Coffee Co Ltd following some way behind. Nestlé’s successfully built the profile of its new chocolate-based flavoured powder drinks brand Cocoa d’Or, attracting new customers by focusing on its collaboration with the famous patisserie as well as introducing innovative white chocolate-based flavours.

Low prices drive demand for hot drinks in large format grocery retail channels

During 2011, consumer demand for hot drinks continued to shift away from independent small grocers towards supermarkets/hypermarkets, which led to the distribution value share of supermarkets increasing at the expense of independent small grocers. Japanese consumers are becoming more attracted by the competitive prices at which hot drinks are offered in supermarkets as the prolonged economic recession in Japan continues to cause concern. Moreover, many of Japan’s independent small grocers are simply not competitive enough in terms of convenience in comparison with supermarkets, where consumers are able complete all of their grocery shopping in a single visit. It seems that the closure of independent small grocers’ outlets is set to continue with no end in sight.

Hot drinks is expected to register a slow but steady decline during 2011

Volume sales of hot drinks are expected to decline slowly over the forecast period, while value sales will continue to increase due to the anticipated unit price increases in coffee. However, it also very likely that weak consumer confidence and the ongoing decline in the Japanese population translate into difficult times ahead for Japan’s hot drinks manufacturers. Furthermore, the rising preference for more convenient hot drinks options is also likely to attract more consumers to RTD products in soft drinks, at the expense of hot drinks.


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Overview

Discover the latest market trends and uncover sources of future market growth for the Hot Drinks industry in Japan with research from Euromonitor's team of in-country analysts.

Find hidden opportunities in the most current research data available, understand competitive threats with our detailed market analysis, and plan your corporate strategy with our expert qualitative analysis and growth projections.

If you're in the Hot Drinks industry in Japan, our research will save you time and money while empowering you to make informed, profitable decisions.

When you purchase this report, you also get the data and the content from these category reports in Japan for free:

The Hot Drinks in Japan market research report includes:

  • Analysis of key supply-side and demand trends
  • Detailed segmentation of international and local products
  • Historic volumes and values, company and brand market shares
  • Five year forecasts of market trends and market growth  
  • Robust and transparent market research methodology, conducted in-country

Our market research reports answer questions such as:

  • What is the market size of Hot Drinks in Japan?
  • What are the major brands in Japan?
  • How has an increasing desire for heart healthy or fiber-added drinks affected the hot drinks industry in Japan?
  • Are manufacturers changing packaging sizes and formats to fit an on-the-go lifestyle?
  • How have changing demographics (for example an aging population) affected the hot drinks market in Japan?

Why buy this report?

  • Gain competitive intelligence about market leaders
  • Track key industry trends, opportunities and threats
  • Inform your marketing, brand, strategy and market development, sales and supply functions

This industry report originates from Passport, our Hot Drinks market research database.

Table of Contents

Table of Contents

Hot Drinks in Japan - Industry Overview

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Hot drinks contracts in volume and value during 2011

The Fukushima radiation disaster raises safety concerns

Nestlé maintains its leading position in hot drinks

Low prices drive demand for hot drinks in large format grocery retail channels

Hot drinks is expected to register a slow but steady decline during 2011

KEY TRENDS AND DEVELOPMENTS

Radiation leak raises safety concerns about domestically produced hot drinks

Rising commodity prices place pressure on Japan’s coffee manufacturers

Ongoing economic concerns encourages home consumption of hot drinks

Convenience remains the key to rising sales of hot drinks

The spotlight falls on hot drinks which are beneficial for disease prevention

MARKET DATA

  • Table 1 Retail Vs Foodservice Sales of Hot Drinks: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 2 Retail Vs Foodservice Sales of Hot Drinks: % Volume Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 3 Retail Sales of Hot Drinks by Category: Volume 2006-2011
  • Table 4 Retail Sales of Hot Drinks by Category: Value 2006-2011
  • Table 5 Retail Sales of Hot Drinks by Category: % Volume Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 6 Retail Sales of Hot Drinks by Category: % Value Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 7 Foodservice Sales of Hot Drinks by Category: Volume 2006-2011
  • Table 8 Foodservice Sales of Hot Drinks by Category: % Volume Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 9 Total Sales of Hot Drinks by Category: Total Volume 2006-2011
  • Table 10 Total Sales of Hot Drinks by Category: % Total Volume Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 11 Hot Drinks Company Shares by Retail Value 2007-2011
  • Table 12 Hot Drinks Brand Shares by Retail Value 2008-2011
  • Table 13 Penetration of Private Label by Category 2006-2011
  • Table 14 Sales of Hot Drinks by Distribution Format: % Analysis 2006-2011
  • Table 15 Sales of Hot Drinks by Category and Distribution Format: % Analysis 2011
  • Table 16 Forecast Retail Vs Foodservice Sales of Hot Drinks: % Volume Breakdown 2011-2016
  • Table 17 Forecast Retail Vs Foodservice Sales of Hot Drinks: % Volume Growth 2011-2016
  • Table 18 Forecast Retail Sales of Hot Drinks by Category: Volume 2011-2016
  • Table 19 Forecast Retail Sales of Hot Drinks by Category: Value 2011-2016
  • Table 20 Forecast Retail Sales of Hot Drinks by Category: % Volume Growth 2011-2016
  • Table 21 Forecast Retail Sales of Hot Drinks by Category: % Value Growth 2011-2016
  • Table 22 Forecast Foodservice Sales of Hot Drinks by Category: Volume 2011-2016
  • Table 23 Forecast Foodservice Sales of Hot Drinks by Category: % Volume Growth 2011-2016
  • Table 24 Forecast Total Sales of Hot Drinks by Category: Total Volume 2011-2016
  • Table 25 Forecast Total Sales of Hot Drinks by Category: % Total Volume Growth 2011-2016

APPENDIX

Production/Import/Export Data

  • Table 26 Production/Imports/Exports/Apparent Consumption of Hot Drinks by Category 2001-2010

DEFINITIONS

SOURCES

  • Summary 1 Research Sources

Hot Drinks in Japan - Company Profiles

Ajinomoto General Foods Inc (AGF) in Hot Drinks (Japan)

STRATEGIC DIRECTION

KEY FACTS

COMPANY BACKGROUND

PRODUCTION

COMPETITIVE POSITIONING

  • Summary 4 Ajinomoto General Foods Inc (AGF): Competitive Position 2011

Fukuju En in Hot Drinks (Japan)

STRATEGIC DIRECTION

KEY FACTS

COMPANY BACKGROUND

PRODUCTION

COMPETITIVE POSITIONING

  • Summary 6 Fukuju En Co Ltd: Competitive Position 2011

House Foods Corp in Hot Drinks (Japan)

STRATEGIC DIRECTION

KEY FACTS

COMPANY BACKGROUND

PRODUCTION

COMPETITIVE POSITIONING

  • Summary 9 House Foods Corp: Competitive Position 2011

Kataoka Bussan Co Ltd in Hot Drinks (Japan)

STRATEGIC DIRECTION

KEY FACTS

COMPANY BACKGROUND

PRODUCTION

COMPETITIVE POSITIONING

  • Summary 12 Kataoka Bussan Co Ltd: Competitive Position 2011

Key Coffee Inc in Hot Drinks (Japan)

STRATEGIC DIRECTION

KEY FACTS

COMPANY BACKGROUND

PRODUCTION

COMPETITIVE POSITIONING

  • Summary 15 Key Coffee Inc: Competitive Position 2011

Mitsui Norin Co Ltd in Hot Drinks (Japan)

STRATEGIC DIRECTION

KEY FACTS

COMPANY BACKGROUND

PRODUCTION

COMPETITIVE POSITIONING

  • Summary 18 Mitsui Norin Co Ltd: Competitive Position 2011

Morinaga & Co Ltd in Hot Drinks (Japan)

STRATEGIC DIRECTION

KEY FACTS

COMPANY BACKGROUND

PRODUCTION

COMPETITIVE POSITIONING

  • Summary 21 Morinaga & Co Ltd: Competitive Position 2011

UCC Ueshima Coffee Co Ltd in Hot Drinks (Japan)

STRATEGIC DIRECTION

KEY FACTS

COMPANY BACKGROUND

PRODUCTION

COMPETITIVE POSITIONING

  • Summary 24 UCC Ueshima Coffee Co Ltd: Competitive Position 2011

Coffee in Japan - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • 2011 was a challenging year for coffee in Japan. Continuous increases in the price of coffee futures lead to frequent price adjustments as manufacturers increased the prices charged for their products. Furthermore, the Tohoku Earthquake which struck Eastern Japan on 11 March led to consumers intensifying their pre-existing tendency to limit expenditure on coffee as Japanese consumers became ever more budget-conscious amidst the uncertainty which prevailed in the wake of the earthquake. These challenges led to diminished demand for coffee as the category declined in off-trade volume by 1% during 2011.

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

  • Nestlé Japan Ltd maintained the leading position in coffee in Japan in 2011 with an off-trade value share of 36%. Nestlé recorded a marginal increase in both off-trade volume and off-trade value sales in 2011. While the company’s leading position is largely derived from its dominant position in instant coffee, the increases it recorded in 2011 were largely derived from rising sales of its fresh ground coffee pods. Although the company had previously been a follower in fresh coffee, the company successfully emerged as an important player in fresh coffee towards the end of the review period, due mainly to its dominant position in fresh ground coffee pods.

PROSPECTS

  • Coffee in Japan is expected to decline in volume by 1% over the course of the entire forecast period, while off-trade constant value sales are set to increase by 4%. The anticipated continuous increases in the retail selling price of coffee are likely to deter consumers from purchasing coffee whilst also resulting in higher constant value growth than volume growth.

CATEGORY DATA

  • Table 27 Retail Sales of Coffee by Category: Volume 2006-2011
  • Table 28 Retail Sales of Coffee by Category: Value 2006-2011
  • Table 29 Retail Sales of Coffee by Category: % Volume Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 30 Retail Sales of Coffee by Category: % Value Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 31 Fresh Ground Coffee: Standard Vs Pods 2006-2011
  • Table 32 Instant Coffee by Type: % Value Breakdown 2007-2011
  • Table 33 Coffee Company Shares by Retail Value 2007-2011
  • Table 34 Coffee Brand Shares by Retail Value 2008-2011
  • Table 35 Forecast Retail Sales of Coffee by Category: Volume 2011-2016
  • Table 36 Forecast Retail Sales of Coffee by Category: Value 2011-2016
  • Table 37 Forecast Retail Sales of Coffee by Category: % Volume Growth 2011-2016
  • Table 38 Forecast Retail Sales of Coffee by Category: % Value Growth 2011-2016
  • Table 39 Fresh Ground Coffee: Forecast Standard Vs Pods 2011-2016

Other Hot Drinks in Japan - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • Other hot drinks growth increased in off-trade volume by 1% in 2010 in a repeat of the 1% increase in total volume recorded in 2010. This growth is derived mainly from the ongoing growth in chocolate-based flavoured powder drinks, which recorded positive growth volume in 2010 and 2011, largely due to new product launches by Nestlé Japan Ltd and the positive effects of television programmes which have publicised the health benefits of chocolate-based flavoured powder drinks.

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

  • Morinaga & Co Ltd maintained its leading position in other drinks in 2011 with a 31% off-trade value share. This was mainly due to the popularity of its Morinaga Milk Cocoa brand, which remained the leading brand in chocolate-based flavoured powder drinks in Japan throughout the review period. Morinaga launched two products under the Milk Cocoa brand in 2010: Milk Cocoa Calorie 1/4, which has 75% fewer calories than regular Milk Cocoa; and Milk Cocoa Cacao 2 Bai Plus, which contains twice as much cacao as standard Milk Cocoa. Both of these new products successfully captured new consumers, leading to sales of the Morinaga Milk Cocoa brand increasing overall during 2011. In 2011, the company added Milk Cocoa Cacao 70 to its product range, a product which features bitter chocolate and include three times the polyphenols that standard types of Milk Cocoa chocolate and targets older female consumers who are concerned about their health.

PROSPECTS

  • Other hot drinks is expected to increase in total volume by 1% over the course of the entire forecast period. Health-conscious Japanese consumers are likely to continue purchasing chocolate-based flavoured powder drinks in high volumes during the first half of the forecast period due to the widespread belief that consuming products in this category can help to halt the spread of the H1N1 influenza virus as the recent epidemic remains fresh in the collective memory in Japan. However, the popularity of chocolate-based flavoured powder drinks is expected to begin declining at some point during the forecast period as Japanese consumers tend to be rather faddish when it comes to the purported health and wellness benefits of food and beverages.

CATEGORY DATA

  • Table 40 Retail Sales of Other Hot Drinks by Category: Volume 2006-2011
  • Table 41 Retail Sales of Other Hot Drinks by Category: Value 2006-2011
  • Table 42 Retail Sales of Other Hot Drinks by Category: % Volume Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 43 Retail Sales of Other Hot Drinks by Category: % Value Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 44 Other Hot Drinks: Standard Vs Pods 2006-2011
  • Table 45 Other Hot Drinks Company Shares by Retail Value 2007-2011
  • Table 46 Other Hot Drinks Brand Shares by Retail Value 2008-2011
  • Table 47 Forecast Retail Sales of Other Hot Drinks by Category: Volume 2011-2016
  • Table 48 Forecast Retail Sales of Other Hot Drinks by Category: Value 2011-2016
  • Table 49 Forecast Retail Sales of Other Hot Drinks by Category: % Volume Growth 2011-2016
  • Table 50 Forecast Retail Sales of Other Hot Drinks by Category: % Value Growth 2011-2016
  • Table 51 Other Hot Drinks: Forecast Standard Vs Pods 2011-2016

Tea in Japan - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • After experiencing positive volume growth in 2009 and 2010, tea declined in total volume by 1% during 2011. There is currently a strong tendency among Japanese consumers to migrate away from tea in hot drinks towards RTD tea in soft drinks as RTD tea represents a more convenient option. However, the decline in volume sales of tea remained limited in 2011 for various reasons. However, the fact that the radiation leak from the Fukushima nuclear power plant contaminated tea crops across a significant area of Japan was the decisive factor in the overall losses suffered by green tea in Japan during 2011.

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

  • Ito En Ltd remained the leading player in tea in Japan during 2011, accounting for 15% of off-trade value sales. Ito En is predominantly a green tea producer and leads green tea. The fact that green tea accounted for 79% of overall tea value sales in 2011 allowed Ito En to maintain a very strong position in tea overall in 2011. Ito En was able to increase its value sales by 2% as well during 2011 as the consumer tendency to favour large established brands in the wake of the earthquake which struck eastern Japan in March 2011 benefited Ito En’s Oi Ocha brand. Ito En responded to growing safety concerns about the potential for radioactive contamination of the tea leaves used in the production of its tea by conducting a comprehensive radiation testing regime, the details of which are freely available on its website.

PROSPECTS

  • Tea in Japan is expected to decline in volume by 1% over the course of the entire forecast period, while constant off-trade value sales are set to decline by 4% over the same period. It is likely that the categories which registered positive growth in 2011 such as black standard tea bags, fruit/herbal tea and instant tea will continue to record positive growth over the forecast period, while the categories that registered declining sales in 2011 will continue declining over the forecast period.

CATEGORY DATA

  • Table 52 Retail Sales of Tea by Category: Volume 2006-2011
  • Table 53 Retail Sales of Tea by Category: Value 2006-2011
  • Table 54 Retail Sales of Tea by Category: % Volume Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 55 Retail Sales of Tea by Category: % Value Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 56 Tea: Standard Vs Pods 2006-2011
  • Table 57 Tea Company Shares by Retail Value 2007-2011
  • Table 58 Tea Brand Shares by Retail Value 2008-2011
  • Table 59 Forecast Retail Sales of Tea by Category: Volume 2011-2016
  • Table 60 Forecast Retail Sales of Tea by Category: Value 2011-2016
  • Table 61 Forecast Retail Sales of Tea by Category: % Volume Growth 2011-2016
  • Table 62 Forecast Retail Sales of Tea by Category: % Value Growth 2011-2016
  • Table 63 Tea: Forecast Standard Vs Pods 2011-2016

Segmentation

Segmentation

This market research report includes the following:

  • Hot Drinks
    • Coffee
      • Fresh Coffee
        • Fresh Coffee Beans
        • Fresh Ground Coffee
          • Fresh Ground Coffee Pods
          • Standard Fresh Ground Coffee
      • Instant Coffee
        • Instant Standard Coffee
        • Instant Decaffeinated Coffee
    • Tea
      • Black Tea
        • Black Standard Tea
          • Loose Black Standard Tea
          • Tea Bags Black Standard
        • Black Speciality Tea
          • Loose Black Speciality Tea
          • Tea Bags Black Speciality
      • Fruit/Herbal Tea
      • Green Tea
      • Instant Tea
      • Other Tea
    • Other Hot Drinks
      • Flavoured Powder Drinks
        • Chocolate-based Flavoured Powder Drinks
        • Malt-based Hot Drinks
        • Non-Chocolate-based Flavoured Powder Drinks
      • Other Plant-based Hot Drinks

Statistics Included

Statistics Included

For each category and subcategory you will receive the following data in Excel format:

From Passport

  • Market sizes
  • Company shares
  • Brand shares
  • Distribution
  • Analysis by type
  • Foodservice distribution
  • Off-trade vs on-trade
  • Pricing
  • Products by ingredient
  • Products by ingredient
  • Standard vs pods

Market size details:

  • Retail volume
  • Retail volume % growth
  • Retail volume per capita
  • Foodservice volume
  • Foodservice volume % growth
  • Foodservice volume per capita
  • Total volume
  • Total volume % growth
  • Total volume per capita
  • Retail value retail selling price % growth
  • Retail value retail selling price local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Retail value retail selling price per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Retail value manufacturer selling price % growth
  • Retail value manufacturer selling price local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Retail value manufacturer selling price per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Retail rtd volume
  • Retail rtd volume % growth
  • Retail rtd volume per capita
  • Foodservice rtd volume
  • Foodservice rtd volume % growth
  • Foodservice rtd volume per capita
  • Total rtd volume
  • Total rtd volume % growth
  • Total rtd volume per capita
  • Retail cups volume
  • Retail cups volume % growth
  • Retail cups volume per capita
  • Foodservice cups volume
  • Foodservice cups volume % growth
  • Foodservice cups volume per capita
  • Total cups volume
  • Total cups volume % growth
  • Total cups volume per capita

Methodology

Methodology

Global insight and local knowledge

With 40 years’ experience of developed and emerging markets, Euromonitor International’s research method is built on a unique combination of specialist industry knowledge and in-country research expertise.

This approach is what enables us to achieve our goal of building a market consensus view of size, shape and trends across the full distribution universe of each category. We factor in whichever channels are relevant, from large-scale grocery to direct sellers, from discount stores to local mom-and-pop outlets.

Industry specialists

Each industry we cover is managed by an Industry Manager and team of Industry Analysts who research and report on their specialist categories all year round.

Our collaborative approach to research means that these industry teams are in constant dialogue with industry players and opinion formers. The planning of our research programmes reflects latest market trends and industry events. In completing each update project, this provides invaluable input to the testing, review and finalisation of our data.

The specialist in-house teams bring together findings from all stages of the annual research process. They work closely with in-country analysts, assess and challenge data and exercise final editorial control over the publication of new data and analysis.

Country and regional analysts

Our in-country analyst network is managed by country and regional analysts in our offices around the world. Working closely with each in-country team, the regional research management team ensures that all country researchers are well schooled in best practices, from the information collected in store checks, to the dialogue we build in trade surveys. Our country analysts ensure that national reports explain the data trends and provide clear insights into the local market’s dynamics.

In-country research network

To deliver fresh insights every year in countries all around the world, we believe the strongest approach is to use analysts on the ground. They bring fluency in local language, physical proximity to the best sources, an ability to engage directly with local industry contacts, and an awareness of how the products and services we study are advertised, sold and consumed. These are essential parts of our ability to report incisively on these markets.

Research Methodology

Our research methods

Each Euromonitor International industry report is based on a core set of research techniques:

Desk research

With industry events, corporate activity, trends and new product introductions tracked year round by our industry team, desk research provides a starting point for the in-country research programme. Our in-country researchers will access the following sources:

  • National statistics offices governmental and official sources
  • National and international trade press
  • National and international trade associations
  • Industry study groups and other semi-official sources
  • Company financials and annual reports
  • Broker reports
  • Online databases
  • The financial, business and mainstream press

Accessing sources is only the first step. The ability to interpret and reconcile often conflicting information across multiple sources is a key aspect of the added value we provide.

Store checks

Store checks are an integral part of our methods for product industries. Carried out on the ground across a relevant mix of channels, the information gained provides first-hand insights into the products we are researching, specifically:

  • Place: We track products in all relevant channels, selective and mass, store and non-store
  • Product: What are innovations in products, pack sizes and formats?
  • Price: What are brand price variations across channels, how do private label’s prices compare to those of branded goods?
  • Promotion: What are marketing and merchandising trends, offers, discounts and tie-ins?

Findings are cross-referenced with brand share data analysis. The results, combined with the findings of desk research, provide a strong basis for identifying key areas of questioning to take forward into our trade survey.

Trade survey

Interaction with global players at corporate HQ and regional levels is complemented by unique local data and insights from our in-country trade surveys around the world. Through the high profile of the Euromonitor International brand, we are able to talk directly to a wide range of sources and therefore inform our analysis with the knowledge and opinions of the leading operators in the market.

Trade surveys allow us to:

  • Fill gaps in available published data per company
  • Generate a consensus view of the size, structure and strategic direction of the category
  • Access year-in-progress data where published sources are out of date
  • Evaluate the experts’ views on current trends and market developments

In building our composite industry view, we engage with a variety of personnel in key players at all points of the supply chain: materials suppliers, manufacturers, distributors, retailers and service operators. We also interview desk research sources: industry associations; study groups; and third party observers from the trade and financial press.

Our objective is to engage in conversation with trade sources in which we exchange ideas and views on the industry, sharing our work-in-progress findings on supply/demand dynamics and potential. This dialogue enhances both parties’ understanding of the local market. The scope and reach of our trade survey also serves to eliminate bias (intentional and unintentional) from any single source.

Company analysis

At a global level, our company research combines our mix of industry interaction and use of secondary sources such as annual accounts, broker reports, financial press and databases. From a data perspective, the aim is to build “top-down” estimates of major players’ total global and regional sales.

At a country level, in line with local reporting requirements, we access annual accounts, national-specific company databases and local company websites. These are all invaluable sources as we build a view of each domestic player’s size and position within very specific categories of the industry.

Forecasts

Data projections and future performance analysis are key elements of Euromonitor International’s market intelligence. Working with historic trends of 15 years or more, a key aspect of our trade survey is to engage industry insider views of the next five years. Will volumes maintain their historic trend? Will price increases or falls of recent years continue, accelerate or slow down? Will increasing demand for one product cannibalise sales of another?

Forecasts represent many of the essential conclusions we have reached about the current state of the market, how it works and how it behaves under different macro and micro conditions. Our written analysis will state the assumptions and the trade opinion behind whether our predictions are optimistic or pessimistic, so that clients can use our statistical forecasts with confidence.

Data validation

All data is subjected to an exhaustive review process, at country, regional and global levels.

The interpretation and review of sources and data inputs forms a central part of the collaboration between industry teams and country researchers. Numbers are delivered to regional and global offices with an audit trail of sources and calculations to allow for a thorough evaluation of data sense and integrity.

Upon completion of the country review phase, data is then reviewed on a comparative basis at regional and then at a global level. Comparative checks are carried out on per capita consumption and spending levels, growth rates, patterns of category and subcategory breakdowns and distribution of sales by channel. Top-down estimates are reviewed against bottom-up regional and global market and company sales totals.

Where marked differences are seen between proximate country markets or ones at similar developmental levels, supplementary research is conducted in the relevant countries to confirm and/or amend those findings. This process ensures international comparability across the database, that consistent category and subcategory definitions have been used and that all data has been correctly tested. We make sure that possible discrepancies between different published sources have been reconciled and that our interpretation of opinion and expectation from each country’s trade sources has been applied to form a coherent international pattern.

Market analysis

Another integral part of all our research programmes is that all Euromonitor International data is accompanied by clear written analysis. From a research perspective, this explains and substantiates data findings. From a client perspective, this offers unique insights into local consumption trends, routes to market, brand preferences, channel dynamics and future trends.

Our country level analysis also provides invaluable input into the ability of our central industry specialist teams to marry local insights with strategic conclusions on the direction of the market regionally and globally.

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