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Country Report

Hot Drinks in New Zealand

Mar 2012

Price: US$1,900

About this Report

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Strong off-trade value performance

Hot drinks performed well in 2011 in terms of off-trade value, outperforming the review period growth average. Strong growth from coffee, particularly fresh ground coffee and instant standard coffee significantly contributed to impressive growth, along with strong performances from tea bags black speciality, other fruit/herbal tea and malt-based hot drinks.

Positive unit price movement

Hot drinks’ unit prices saw significant increases in 2011 in New Zealand. A key factor was the increase in the Goods and Services Tax (GST) which rose from 12.5% to 15% in October 2010. Furthermore, rising input costs such as coffee bean price increases also contributed to the upward unit price movement. This affected volumes negatively throughout the category, and contributed to a positive performance for private label products and economy brands.

Nestlé New Zealand Ltd remains hot drinks leader

Nestlé New Zealand Ltd remained the dominant force within hot drinks in terms of off-trade value sales and gained further ground ahead of competitors in 2011. The company’s dominant Milo brand within other hot drinks and the popular mainstream instant coffee brand Nescafé continued to be the leading two hot drinks brands in 2011.

Slow economic recovery shapes distribution shares

As a result of the sluggish pace of economic recovery in 2011, supermarkets remained the dominant channel in which consumers purchased hot drinks in New Zealand. Consumers remained price-conscious and largely purchased hot drinks from supermarkets, as they offer the most competitive pricing due to economies of scale. On-trade continued to be negatively affected due to consumer spending pressures.

Measured growth expected over forecast period

The market is expected to see positive constant value off-trade growth over the forecast period, although overall dynamic growth is not forecast. Potential growth drivers include innovative new product launches and rapid economic recovery. Potential growth constraints include maturity within certain tea categories, strong price competition and slow economic recovery.


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Overview

Discover the latest market trends and uncover sources of future market growth for the Hot Drinks industry in New Zealand with research from Euromonitor's team of in-country analysts.

Find hidden opportunities in the most current research data available, understand competitive threats with our detailed market analysis, and plan your corporate strategy with our expert qualitative analysis and growth projections.

If you're in the Hot Drinks industry in New Zealand, our research will save you time and money while empowering you to make informed, profitable decisions.

When you purchase this report, you also get the data and the content from these category reports in New Zealand for free:

The Hot Drinks in New Zealand market research report includes:

  • Analysis of key supply-side and demand trends
  • Detailed segmentation of international and local products
  • Historic volumes and values, company and brand market shares
  • Five year forecasts of market trends and market growth  
  • Robust and transparent market research methodology, conducted in-country

Our market research reports answer questions such as:

  • What is the market size of Hot Drinks in New Zealand?
  • What are the major brands in New Zealand?
  • How has an increasing desire for heart healthy or fiber-added drinks affected the hot drinks industry in New Zealand?
  • Are manufacturers changing packaging sizes and formats to fit an on-the-go lifestyle?
  • How have changing demographics (for example an aging population) affected the hot drinks market in New Zealand?

Why buy this report?

  • Gain competitive intelligence about market leaders
  • Track key industry trends, opportunities and threats
  • Inform your marketing, brand, strategy and market development, sales and supply functions

This industry report originates from Passport, our Hot Drinks market research database.

Table of Contents

Table of Contents

Hot Drinks in New Zealand - Industry Overview

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Strong off-trade value performance

Positive unit price movement

Nestlé New Zealand Ltd remains hot drinks leader

Slow economic recovery shapes distribution shares

Measured growth expected over forecast period

KEY TRENDS AND DEVELOPMENTS

Christchurch earthquake implications

  • Summary 1 Economic Indicators

Social sustainability resonates with consumers

Pressure on coffee prices in 2011 due to record commodity prices

Polarisation results from economic pressures

Environmental sustainability seen as the way forward

MARKET DATA

  • Table 1 Retail Vs Foodservice Sales of Hot Drinks: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 2 Retail Vs Foodservice Sales of Hot Drinks: % Volume Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 3 Retail Sales of Hot Drinks by Category: Volume 2006-2011
  • Table 4 Retail Sales of Hot Drinks by Category: Value 2006-2011
  • Table 5 Retail Sales of Hot Drinks by Category: % Volume Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 6 Retail Sales of Hot Drinks by Category: % Value Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 7 Foodservice Sales of Hot Drinks by Category: Volume 2006-2011
  • Table 8 Foodservice Sales of Hot Drinks by Category: % Volume Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 9 Total Sales of Hot Drinks by Category: Total Volume 2006-2011
  • Table 10 Total Sales of Hot Drinks by Category: % Total Volume Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 11 Hot Drinks Company Shares by Retail Value 2007-2011
  • Table 12 Hot Drinks Brand Shares by Retail Value 2008-2011
  • Table 13 Penetration of Private Label by Category 2006-2011
  • Table 14 Sales of Hot Drinks by Distribution Format: % Analysis 2006-2011
  • Table 15 Sales of Hot Drinks by Category and Distribution Format: % Analysis 2011
  • Table 16 Forecast Retail Vs Foodservice Sales of Hot Drinks: % Volume Breakdown 2011-2016
  • Table 17 Forecast Retail Vs Foodservice Sales of Hot Drinks: % Volume Growth 2011-2016
  • Table 18 Forecast Retail Sales of Hot Drinks by Category: Volume 2011-2016
  • Table 19 Forecast Retail Sales of Hot Drinks by Category: Value 2011-2016
  • Table 20 Forecast Retail Sales of Hot Drinks by Category: % Volume Growth 2011-2016
  • Table 21 Forecast Retail Sales of Hot Drinks by Category: % Value Growth 2011-2016
  • Table 22 Forecast Foodservice Sales of Hot Drinks by Category: Volume 2011-2016
  • Table 23 Forecast Foodservice Sales of Hot Drinks by Category: % Volume Growth 2011-2016
  • Table 24 Forecast Total Sales of Hot Drinks by Category: Total Volume 2011-2016
  • Table 25 Forecast Total Sales of Hot Drinks by Category: % Total Volume Growth 2011-2016

APPENDIX

Production/Import/Export Data

SOURCES

  • Summary 2 Research Sources

Hot Drinks in New Zealand - Company Profiles

Bell Tea & Coffee Co Ltd, The in Hot Drinks (New Zealand)

STRATEGIC DIRECTION

KEY FACTS

COMPANY BACKGROUND

PRODUCTION

COMPETITIVE POSITIONING

  • Summary 4 The Bell Tea & Coffee Co Ltd: Competitive Position 2011

Cerebos Gregg's Ltd in Hot Drinks (New Zealand)

STRATEGIC DIRECTION

KEY FACTS

COMPANY BACKGROUND

PRODUCTION

  • Summary 7 Cerebos Gregg’s Ltd: Production Statistics 2011

COMPETITIVE POSITIONING

  • Summary 8 Cerebos Gregg’s Ltd: Competitive Position 2011

Dilmah New Zealand Pty Ltd in Hot Drinks (New Zealand)

STRATEGIC DIRECTION

KEY FACTS

COMPANY BACKGROUND

PRODUCTION

COMPETITIVE POSITIONING

  • Summary 10 Dilmah New Zealand Ltd: Competitive Position 2011

Vitaco Health Ltd in Hot Drinks (New Zealand)

STRATEGIC DIRECTION

KEY FACTS

COMPANY BACKGROUND

PRODUCTION

COMPETITIVE POSITIONING

  • Summary 12 Vitaco Health Ltd: Competitive Position 2011

Coffee in New Zealand - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • Global coffee bean prices rose significantly over 2010/11, putting pressure on coffee products throughout supply chains. Arabica coffee beans rose to a 34-year high in the first half of 2011, to over US$3.00/lb on the Intercontinental Exchange in New York, prior to decreasing to approximately US$2.40/lb in Q3 2011. Record coffee bean prices resulted from weak harvests in Latin American and Asian coffee bean growing regions, speculator pressure and the increased consumption of developing economies. As a result both wholesale and retail unit prices in New Zealand rose in 2011, with the latter increasing by 6%.

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

  • Nestlé New Zealand Ltd continued to dominate the category in 2011 with an off-trade retail value share of 37%. The category’s leading brand, Nescafé, continued to perform well within instant coffee and the brand’s Café-inspired flavoured instant coffee offerings were key in terms of adding value and driving growth. Particularly, the Nescafé Cafe Menu 20-pack range continued to perform well. Also contributing to the growth and the strong performance of Nestlé New Zealand Ltd, the re-launch of the Nescafé Gold premium instant coffee brand, which is differentiated by using 100% Arabica beans. The product saw an improved aroma and a new and improved jar with apparent stronger premium cues in 2011.

PROSPECTS

  • The trends towards both premium and sustainable products are forecast to continue over the forecast period. Premium product popularity will in part be impacted upon by the state of the economy, with faster economic recovery being forecast as a positive for the segment, while slow economic recovery will represent the inverse.

CATEGORY DATA

  • Table 26 Retail Sales of Coffee by Category: Volume 2006-2011
  • Table 27 Retail Sales of Coffee by Category: Value 2006-2011
  • Table 28 Retail Sales of Coffee by Category: % Volume Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 29 Retail Sales of Coffee by Category: % Value Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 30 Fresh Ground Coffee: Standard Vs Pods 2006-2011
  • Table 31 Instant Coffee by Type: % Value Breakdown 2007-2011
  • Table 32 Coffee Company Shares by Retail Value 2007-2011
  • Table 33 Coffee Brand Shares by Retail Value 2008-2011
  • Table 34 Forecast Retail Sales of Coffee by Category: Volume 2011-2016
  • Table 35 Forecast Retail Sales of Coffee by Category: Value 2011-2016
  • Table 36 Forecast Retail Sales of Coffee by Category: % Volume Growth 2011-2016
  • Table 37 Forecast Retail Sales of Coffee by Category: % Value Growth 2011-2016
  • Table 38 Fresh Ground Coffee: Forecast Standard Vs Pods 2011-2016

Other Hot Drinks in New Zealand - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • 2011’s off-trade value growth rate of 7% was slightly above the review period CAGR. This was due to the October 2010 GST increase from 12.5% to 15%.

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

  • Nestlé New Zealand Ltd’s strong leading position continued in 2011 with an off-trade value share of 76%, up from 74% in 2010. The strong market position and performance were largely contributable to the strength of the highly recognisable and popular Milo brand within malt-based hot drinks. The company’s Nesquik brand also performed well in 2011.

PROSPECTS

  • An increase in sustainable product offerings is expected for the category over the forecast period. Ethical choices, such as through fair trade-certified products, are expected to increase, along with an rise in certified organic products. Kokako is a leading niche brand in terms of sustainability, and other manufacturers are expected to follow suit in terms of biodegradable and/or recyclable packaging. Trends towards more natural ingredients and away from artificial additives and preservatives are also expected to continue.

CATEGORY DATA

  • Table 39 Retail Sales of Other Hot Drinks by Category: Volume 2006-2011
  • Table 40 Retail Sales of Other Hot Drinks by Category: Value 2006-2011
  • Table 41 Retail Sales of Other Hot Drinks by Category: % Volume Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 42 Retail Sales of Other Hot Drinks by Category: % Value Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 43 Other Hot Drinks: Standard Vs Pods 2006-2011
  • Table 44 Other Hot Drinks Company Shares by Retail Value 2007-2011
  • Table 45 Other Hot Drinks Brand Shares by Retail Value 2008-2011
  • Table 46 Forecast Retail Sales of Other Hot Drinks by Category: Volume 2011-2016
  • Table 47 Forecast Retail Sales of Other Hot Drinks by Category: Value 2011-2016
  • Table 48 Forecast Retail Sales of Other Hot Drinks by Category: % Volume Growth 2011-2016
  • Table 49 Forecast Retail Sales of Other Hot Drinks by Category: % Value Growth 2011-2016
  • Table 50 Other Hot Drinks: Forecast Standard Vs Pods 2011-2016

Tea in New Zealand - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • Health and wellness was a key 2011 trend regarding tea in New Zealand, as consumers are increasingly aware of the health benefits associated with the consumption of antioxidant-rich tea.

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

  • The Bell Tea & Coffee Co Ltd maintained dominance in terms of off-trade retail value in 2011 with a 41% share. The company has a long tradition of providing tea in New Zealand, exhibits high levels of brand awareness through its mainstream Bell brand, and also has strong brand awareness with the Twinings brand. The company’s brands and sub-brands are positioned across a range of tea categories incorporating the largest and also most dynamic niches.

PROSPECTS

  • Off-trade value sales are expected to see a constant value CAGR of 1% over the forecast period. This is slightly below review period growth of 2%. Forecast total volume growth is also expected to be lower than review period performance. Slightly lower growth rates are due to the maturity of the key black tea category, along with strong price competition. However, health and wellness will act as a key driver for tea over the forecast period.

CATEGORY DATA

  • Table 51 Retail Sales of Tea by Category: Volume 2006-2011
  • Table 52 Retail Sales of Tea by Category: Value 2006-2011
  • Table 53 Retail Sales of Tea by Category: % Volume Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 54 Retail Sales of Tea by Category: % Value Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 55 Tea: Standard Vs Pods 2006-2011
  • Table 56 Tea Company Shares by Retail Value 2007-2011
  • Table 57 Tea Brand Shares by Retail Value 2008-2011
  • Table 58 Forecast Retail Sales of Tea by Category: Volume 2011-2016
  • Table 59 Forecast Retail Sales of Tea by Category: Value 2011-2016
  • Table 60 Forecast Retail Sales of Tea by Category: % Volume Growth 2011-2016
  • Table 61 Forecast Retail Sales of Tea by Category: % Value Growth 2011-2016
  • Table 62 Tea: Forecast Standard Vs Pods 2011-2016

Segmentation

Segmentation

This market research report includes the following:

  • Hot Drinks
    • Coffee
      • Fresh Coffee
        • Fresh Coffee Beans
        • Fresh Ground Coffee
          • Fresh Ground Coffee Pods
          • Standard Fresh Ground Coffee
      • Instant Coffee
        • Instant Standard Coffee
        • Instant Decaffeinated Coffee
    • Tea
      • Black Tea
        • Black Standard Tea
          • Loose Black Standard Tea
          • Tea Bags Black Standard
        • Black Speciality Tea
          • Loose Black Speciality Tea
          • Tea Bags Black Speciality
      • Fruit/Herbal Tea
      • Green Tea
      • Instant Tea
      • Other Tea
    • Other Hot Drinks
      • Flavoured Powder Drinks
        • Chocolate-based Flavoured Powder Drinks
        • Malt-based Hot Drinks
        • Non-Chocolate-based Flavoured Powder Drinks
      • Other Plant-based Hot Drinks

Statistics Included

Statistics Included

For each category and subcategory you will receive the following data in Excel format:

From Passport

  • Market sizes
  • Company shares
  • Brand shares
  • Distribution
  • Analysis by type
  • Foodservice distribution
  • Off-trade vs on-trade
  • Pricing
  • Products by ingredient
  • Products by ingredient
  • Standard vs pods

Market size details:

  • Retail volume
  • Retail volume % growth
  • Retail volume per capita
  • Foodservice volume
  • Foodservice volume % growth
  • Foodservice volume per capita
  • Total volume
  • Total volume % growth
  • Total volume per capita
  • Retail value retail selling price % growth
  • Retail value retail selling price local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Retail value retail selling price per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Retail value manufacturer selling price % growth
  • Retail value manufacturer selling price local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Retail value manufacturer selling price per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Retail rtd volume
  • Retail rtd volume % growth
  • Retail rtd volume per capita
  • Foodservice rtd volume
  • Foodservice rtd volume % growth
  • Foodservice rtd volume per capita
  • Total rtd volume
  • Total rtd volume % growth
  • Total rtd volume per capita
  • Retail cups volume
  • Retail cups volume % growth
  • Retail cups volume per capita
  • Foodservice cups volume
  • Foodservice cups volume % growth
  • Foodservice cups volume per capita
  • Total cups volume
  • Total cups volume % growth
  • Total cups volume per capita

Methodology

Methodology

Global insight and local knowledge

With 40 years’ experience of developed and emerging markets, Euromonitor International’s research method is built on a unique combination of specialist industry knowledge and in-country research expertise.

This approach is what enables us to achieve our goal of building a market consensus view of size, shape and trends across the full distribution universe of each category. We factor in whichever channels are relevant, from large-scale grocery to direct sellers, from discount stores to local mom-and-pop outlets.

Industry specialists

Each industry we cover is managed by an Industry Manager and team of Industry Analysts who research and report on their specialist categories all year round.

Our collaborative approach to research means that these industry teams are in constant dialogue with industry players and opinion formers. The planning of our research programmes reflects latest market trends and industry events. In completing each update project, this provides invaluable input to the testing, review and finalisation of our data.

The specialist in-house teams bring together findings from all stages of the annual research process. They work closely with in-country analysts, assess and challenge data and exercise final editorial control over the publication of new data and analysis.

Country and regional analysts

Our in-country analyst network is managed by country and regional analysts in our offices around the world. Working closely with each in-country team, the regional research management team ensures that all country researchers are well schooled in best practices, from the information collected in store checks, to the dialogue we build in trade surveys. Our country analysts ensure that national reports explain the data trends and provide clear insights into the local market’s dynamics.

In-country research network

To deliver fresh insights every year in countries all around the world, we believe the strongest approach is to use analysts on the ground. They bring fluency in local language, physical proximity to the best sources, an ability to engage directly with local industry contacts, and an awareness of how the products and services we study are advertised, sold and consumed. These are essential parts of our ability to report incisively on these markets.

Research Methodology

Our research methods

Each Euromonitor International industry report is based on a core set of research techniques:

Desk research

With industry events, corporate activity, trends and new product introductions tracked year round by our industry team, desk research provides a starting point for the in-country research programme. Our in-country researchers will access the following sources:

  • National statistics offices governmental and official sources
  • National and international trade press
  • National and international trade associations
  • Industry study groups and other semi-official sources
  • Company financials and annual reports
  • Broker reports
  • Online databases
  • The financial, business and mainstream press

Accessing sources is only the first step. The ability to interpret and reconcile often conflicting information across multiple sources is a key aspect of the added value we provide.

Store checks

Store checks are an integral part of our methods for product industries. Carried out on the ground across a relevant mix of channels, the information gained provides first-hand insights into the products we are researching, specifically:

  • Place: We track products in all relevant channels, selective and mass, store and non-store
  • Product: What are innovations in products, pack sizes and formats?
  • Price: What are brand price variations across channels, how do private label’s prices compare to those of branded goods?
  • Promotion: What are marketing and merchandising trends, offers, discounts and tie-ins?

Findings are cross-referenced with brand share data analysis. The results, combined with the findings of desk research, provide a strong basis for identifying key areas of questioning to take forward into our trade survey.

Trade survey

Interaction with global players at corporate HQ and regional levels is complemented by unique local data and insights from our in-country trade surveys around the world. Through the high profile of the Euromonitor International brand, we are able to talk directly to a wide range of sources and therefore inform our analysis with the knowledge and opinions of the leading operators in the market.

Trade surveys allow us to:

  • Fill gaps in available published data per company
  • Generate a consensus view of the size, structure and strategic direction of the category
  • Access year-in-progress data where published sources are out of date
  • Evaluate the experts’ views on current trends and market developments

In building our composite industry view, we engage with a variety of personnel in key players at all points of the supply chain: materials suppliers, manufacturers, distributors, retailers and service operators. We also interview desk research sources: industry associations; study groups; and third party observers from the trade and financial press.

Our objective is to engage in conversation with trade sources in which we exchange ideas and views on the industry, sharing our work-in-progress findings on supply/demand dynamics and potential. This dialogue enhances both parties’ understanding of the local market. The scope and reach of our trade survey also serves to eliminate bias (intentional and unintentional) from any single source.

Company analysis

At a global level, our company research combines our mix of industry interaction and use of secondary sources such as annual accounts, broker reports, financial press and databases. From a data perspective, the aim is to build “top-down” estimates of major players’ total global and regional sales.

At a country level, in line with local reporting requirements, we access annual accounts, national-specific company databases and local company websites. These are all invaluable sources as we build a view of each domestic player’s size and position within very specific categories of the industry.

Forecasts

Data projections and future performance analysis are key elements of Euromonitor International’s market intelligence. Working with historic trends of 15 years or more, a key aspect of our trade survey is to engage industry insider views of the next five years. Will volumes maintain their historic trend? Will price increases or falls of recent years continue, accelerate or slow down? Will increasing demand for one product cannibalise sales of another?

Forecasts represent many of the essential conclusions we have reached about the current state of the market, how it works and how it behaves under different macro and micro conditions. Our written analysis will state the assumptions and the trade opinion behind whether our predictions are optimistic or pessimistic, so that clients can use our statistical forecasts with confidence.

Data validation

All data is subjected to an exhaustive review process, at country, regional and global levels.

The interpretation and review of sources and data inputs forms a central part of the collaboration between industry teams and country researchers. Numbers are delivered to regional and global offices with an audit trail of sources and calculations to allow for a thorough evaluation of data sense and integrity.

Upon completion of the country review phase, data is then reviewed on a comparative basis at regional and then at a global level. Comparative checks are carried out on per capita consumption and spending levels, growth rates, patterns of category and subcategory breakdowns and distribution of sales by channel. Top-down estimates are reviewed against bottom-up regional and global market and company sales totals.

Where marked differences are seen between proximate country markets or ones at similar developmental levels, supplementary research is conducted in the relevant countries to confirm and/or amend those findings. This process ensures international comparability across the database, that consistent category and subcategory definitions have been used and that all data has been correctly tested. We make sure that possible discrepancies between different published sources have been reconciled and that our interpretation of opinion and expectation from each country’s trade sources has been applied to form a coherent international pattern.

Market analysis

Another integral part of all our research programmes is that all Euromonitor International data is accompanied by clear written analysis. From a research perspective, this explains and substantiates data findings. From a client perspective, this offers unique insights into local consumption trends, routes to market, brand preferences, channel dynamics and future trends.

Our country level analysis also provides invaluable input into the ability of our central industry specialist teams to marry local insights with strategic conclusions on the direction of the market regionally and globally.

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