Illicit Trade in Tobacco Products 2011

Introduction

Scope

• Introduction

Illicit trade: The key drivers do not change

• Introduction

Illicit trade : Key issues

• Introduction

Illicit outlook: China distorts trends but real illicit on the rise

• Introduction

Global Illicit Trade Overview

What is illicit trade?

• Global Illicit Trade Overview

Global illicit trade and penetration: A world summary

• Global Illicit Trade Overview

Estimating illicit trade: Top down

• Global Illicit Trade Overview

Calculating illicit trade: Bottom up

• Global Illicit Trade Overview

Illicit trade and tax

• Global Illicit Trade Overview

Types of illicit trade

• Global Illicit Trade Overview

Illicit trade: Regional overview

• Global Illicit Trade Overview

Main source and destination markets for illicit trade in cigarettes

• Global Illicit Trade Overview

Illicit penetration: Regional comparisons 2010

• Global Illicit Trade Overview

The World Cigarette Trade

Legal and illegal production and trade in cigarettes - connections

• The World Cigarette Trade

Cigarette production analysis

• The World Cigarette Trade

Cigarette trade analysis

• The World Cigarette Trade

What Drives Illicit Trade

Germany: Higher price leads to higher illicit – yes…but

• What Drives Illicit Trade

Illicit driver analysis (1 ): Illicit growth countries

• What Drives Illicit Trade

Illicit driver analysis (2 ): Illicit contraction countries

• What Drives Illicit Trade

Illicit trade: The tale of the numbers

• What Drives Illicit Trade

Illicit trade, economic slowdown and consumer attitudes

• What Drives Illicit Trade

Fighting Illicit Trade

The FCTC and illicit trade – the Illicit Trade Protocol

• Fighting Illicit Trade

Fighting illicit trade:– Means under consideration – will they work?

• Fighting Illicit Trade

What the companies are doing

• Fighting Illicit Trade

Analysis by Region and Country

Western Europe: The high price, high incentive markets

• Analysis by Region and Country

Western Europe: The big trends

• Analysis by Region and Country

Spain case study: Illicit rise in troubled Spanish market

• Analysis by Region and Country

Eastern Europe: Major illicit source and major illicit consumer

• Analysis by Region and Country

Eastern Europe: Domestic illicit is only half the story

• Analysis by Region and Country

Ukraine case study: The over-producer

• Analysis by Region and Country

Poland case study: Losing battle with ‘EU-driven’ illicit growth

• Analysis by Region and Country

Latin America: Brazil dominates

• Analysis by Region and Country

Latin America: Mexico fastest grower

• Analysis by Region and Country

Brazil: Setback in fight against illicit trade

• Analysis by Region and Country

North America: Contrasting levels of illicit penetration

• Analysis by Region and Country

USA and Canada: A tale of two responses to price hikes

• Analysis by Region and Country

Canada case study: Taking strong action against illicit source

• Analysis by Region and Country

Middle East and Africa: Graphic misconception in Iran

• Analysis by Region and Country

Middle East and Africa: Easy for illicit trade to thrive

• Analysis by Region and Country

Asia Pacific: High illicit penetration

• Analysis by Region and Country

Asia Pacific: China dominates illicit volume falls

• Analysis by Region and Country

India: Case study

• Analysis by Region and Country

Vietnam case study: New initiative to tackle illicit trade

• Analysis by Region and Country

Indonesia case study: Increasing the pressure on illicit trade

• Analysis by Region and Country

Australasia: Illicit rising and plain packs on the horizon

• Analysis by Region and Country

Conclusions and Outlook

An internet future for illicit trade?

• Conclusions and Outlook

How can the fight be won?

• Conclusions and Outlook