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Strategy Briefing

New Frontiers: Strategy Briefing on the Next Eight Emerging Economies

Jan 2010

Price: $2,600

About this Report

About this Report

The global downturn has widened the economic spotlight beyond the BRICs and this Strategy Briefing looks at the ‘next eight’ markets – Argentina, Indonesia, Mexico, Poland, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, South Korea and Turkey. Within the countries, gaps between rich and poor; old and young; urban and rural are increasing. This report provides a snapshot of the common themes across markets as well as the economic, demographic and marketing differences and drivers of change.

What this report includes

  • Top-level strategic analysis of how major consumer trends will influence global markets
  • Consumer insight
  • Impact across all relevant consumer markets
  • Unique graphics and case studies
  • Key market snapshots
  • Accompanying presentation to synthesise main findings
     

Why buy this report

  • Identify factors driving change now and in the future
  • Understand motivation
  • Forward-looking outlook
  • Briefings and presentation should provoke lively discussion at senior level
  • Take a step back from micro trends
  • Get up to date estimates and comment

Delivery format

PDF/Word
Downloadable from MyPages

Table of Contents

Table of Contents

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Overview

  • Summary 1 Opportunities and Threats

Introduction

  • Chart 1 The New Frontier Markets
  • Table 1 Overview of GDP and Population 2008

The rise of the G20

Global Snapshot

  • Chart 2 G20: GDP (2008 US$ billion)
  • Chart 3 G20: GDP at Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) 2008 (US$ trillion)
  • Chart 4 G20: GDP per Household (2008 US$’000)

The crash (or not)

  • Table 2 G20: GDP Growth 2007-2011 (% growth)

The rise of the developing economies

The market opportunity

  • Chart 5 New Frontier Markets: Consumer Expenditure as a % of GDP (2008)

Spending priorities

  • Chart 6 New Frontier Markets: Share of Consumer Expenditure 2008 (%)
  • Summary 2 Common Themes Uniting New Frontier Markets

Increasing gap between rich and poor

  • Chart 7 New Frontier Markets: Gini Index (2008)
  • Chart 8 New Frontier Markets: Savings Ratio 2008 (% Income Saved)

Urbanisation – gap between city and country

  • Chart 9 New Frontier Markets: Urban and Rural Population (%) 2008
  • Table 3 New Frontier Markets: Trends in Urbanisation 1980-2020

Emerging middle class in emerging markets

  • Table 4 New Frontier Markets: Household Average Annual Income by Decile 2008

The global and local middle classes

  • Table 5 New Frontier Markets: % of the Population by Personal Income Band 2008

The first global generation – the impact of the Millennials

Delaying commitment for career

  • Chart 10 New Frontier Markets: % of the Population Aged Under 25 Years 2008

Youth unemployment

  • Table 6 New Frontier Markets: Youth Unemployment (% Unemployed by Age Group) 2008

NEW FRONTIER MARKET SNAPSHOTS

Argentina

Political/economic context

  • Table 7 Argentina: Economic Indicators 2004-2008

Social/demographic context

  • Chart 11 Argentina: Demographic Profile 2008

Daily life

  • Chart 12 Argentina: Household Structure and Ownership of Durables 2008

Consumption infrastructure

  • Chart 13 Argentina: Grocery Retailers – % Share of Total Grocery Spending 2008

Consumer spending

  • Chart 14 Argentina: Spending by Category – Trend (2004-2008 % CAGR) and Recessionary Impact (2007-2008 and 2008-2009) (%)

Indonesia

Political/economic context

  • Table 8 Indonesia: Economic Indicators 2004-2008

Social/demographic context

  • Chart 15 Indonesia: Demographic Profile 2008

Daily life

A degree is no guarantee of employment

  • Chart 16 Indonesia: Household Structure and Ownership of Durables 2008

Consumption infrastructure

  • Chart 17 Indonesia: Grocery Retailers – % Share of Total Grocery Spending 2008

Consumer spending

  • Chart 18 Indonesia: Spending by Category – Trend (% CAGR 2004-2008 ) and Recessionary Impact (2007-2008 and 2008-2009) (%)

Mexico

Political/economic context

  • Table 9 Mexico: Economic Indicators 2004-2008

Social/demographic context

  • Chart 19 Mexico: Demographic Profile 2008

Daily life

Upgraded lifestyles

  • Chart 20 Mexico: Household Structure and Ownership of Durables 2008

Techno transformation

Consumption infrastructure

  • Chart 21 Mexico: Grocery Retailers – % Share of Total Grocery Spending 2008

On-line shopping does not deliver sociability

Consumer spending

  • Chart 22 Mexico: Spending by Category – Trend (% CAGR 2004-2008) and Recessionary Impact (2007-2008 and 2008-2009) (%)

Poland

Political/economic context

  • Table 10 Poland: Economic Indicators 2004-2008

Social/demographic context

  • Chart 23 Poland: Demographic Profile 2008

Daily life

  • Chart 24 Poland: Household Structure and Ownership of Durables 2008

Consumption infrastructure

  • Chart 25 Poland: Grocery Retailers – % Share of Total Grocery Spending 2008

Consumer spending

  • Chart 26 Poland: Spending by Category – Trend (% CAGR 2004-2008) and Recessionary Impact (2007-2008 and 2008-2009) (%)

Saudi Arabia

Political/economic context

  • Table 11 Saudi Arabia: Economic Indicators 2004-2008

Social/demographic context

  • Chart 27 Saudi Arabia: Demographic Profile 2008

Miss Beautiful Morals

Daily life

  • Chart 28 Saudi Arabia: Household Structure and Ownership of Durables 2008

The battle for health

Consumption infrastructure

  • Chart 29 Saudi Arabia: Grocery Retailers – % Share of Total Grocery Spending 2008

Consumer spending

  • Chart 30 Saudi Arabia: Spending by Category – Trend (% CAGR 2004-2008) and Recessionary Impact (2007-2008 and 2008-2009) (%)

South Africa

Political/economic context

HIV/AIDS continues to hit life expectancy

  • Table 12 South Africa: Economic Indicators 2004-2008

Social/demographic context

Poverty plus aspiration equals urbanisation

  • Chart 31 South Africa: Demographic Profile 2008

Daily life

  • Chart 32 South Africa: Household Structure and Ownership of Durables 2008

Mobile phones in more households than colour TV

Consumption infrastructure

  • Chart 33 South Africa: Grocery Retailers – % Share of Total Grocery Spending 2008

e-B2B

Consumer spending

  • Chart 34 South Africa: Spending by Category – Trend (% CAGR 2004-2008) and Recessionary Impact (2007-2008 and 2008-2009) (%)

South Korea

Political/economic context

  • Table 13 South Korea: Economic Indicators 2004-2008

Social/demographic context

  • Chart 35 South Korea: Demographic Profile 2008

An extra day to play

Daily life

  • Chart 36 South Korea: Household Structure and Ownership of Durables 2008

“Generation one metre”

Consumption infrastructure

  • Chart 37 South Korea: Grocery Retailers – % Share of Total Grocery Spending 2008

Luxury still appeals

Consumer spending

  • Chart 38 South Korea: Spending by Category – Trend (% CAGR 2004-2008) and Recessionary Impact (2007-2008 and 2008-2009) (%)

Turkey

Political/economic context

  • Table 14 Turkey: Economic Indicators 2004-2008

Falling FDI

Social/demographic context

  • Chart 39 Turkey: Demographic Profile 2008

Daily life

  • Chart 40 Turkey: Household Structure and Ownership of Durables 2008

Changing coffeehouse culture

Consumption infrastructure

  • Chart 41 Turkey: Grocery Retailers – % Share of Total Grocery Spending 2008

Consumer spending

  • Chart 42 Turkey: Spending by Category – Trend (% CAGR 2004-2008) and Recessionary Impact (2007-2008 and 2008-2009) (%)

Future Outlook

Key drivers of change

  • Table 15 New Frontier Markets: GDP Growth Rates 2009-2013

Rising “South-South” investment

  • Table 16 New Frontier Markets: Unemployment Rates 2009-2013
  • Table 17 New Frontier Markets: Inflation Rates 2009-2013
  • Table 18 New Frontier Markets: Consumer Expenditure – Year-on-Year Growth 2008-2013

Jobless economies

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