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Research Methodology: Economies and Consumers

Passport: Economies and Consumers contains a wide variety of analysis across a diverse set of topics, from the dangers of export dependence to consumer behaviour and the web 2.0  As such, our methodologies are adjusted according to the requirements of the content.

general methodology

Euromonitor International relies on the regional knowledge of our analysts based all across the world.  Analysts in our 12 global offices bring their cultural backgrounds into analysis, providing strong local and regional insights to the research.  Beyond local expertise, analysts have extensive educational backgrounds and training; many analysts at Euromonitor have postgraduate degrees and PhDs. Additionally, analysts monitor local and regional public opinion, integrating the latest public sentiments into their commentary.

Euromonitor's in-depth database of macro-economic data, demographic, energy, infrastructure and other statistics complement the commentary provided by analysts. We also use a range of national and international secondary sources including the IMF, OECD, UN, World Bank, European Commission, national statistics and Central Banks. 

Beyond macro-economic data, Euromonitor also focuses on consumer surveys, online consumer trends, cultural and social undercurrents and consumer responses to advertising. The direction of content is steered by our team of specialist editors who undertake rigorous quality control.

CONSUMER SEGMENTATION

Consumer segmentation at Euromonitor International is a qualitative process based on current affairs, cultural, global and commercial awareness and a strong research background in consumer trends.  We focus on the latest consumer surveys, online consumer trends, cultural and social undercurrents, shifting observations of global consumer trend commentators and leading public opinion in the media.  Our consumer trends analysis benefits from the extensive knowledge within Euromonitor's Passport quantitative database, supporting our qualitative observations and the global geographic and cultural insight of our analysts.

All of these elements combined form the backbone of our Economies & Consumers system offering.

STATISTICS METHODOLOGY​​

RESEARCH

Compiling the data and ensuring its quality and cross-country comparability is a thorough process involving a number of stages as depicted in the diagram.

Each data point is collected together with detailed definitions and data source locations. This additional information is vital for cross-validation of the datasets.

The data undergoes several layers of quality control and standardisation. For example, structural breaks in times series that are often caused by changes in the definitions or methodology at the source are removed by our team of expert statisticians. Any data outliers are detected and reported back to sources for further resoltuion. When necessary, seasonal adjustments of quarterly and monthly data are made by our team.

Any gaps in time series are filled with stasticial interpolation techniques and expert opinion. Rigorous checks of data definitions and adherence to international classifications help to ensure cross-country comparability.

FORECASTING

Different datasets and time horizons entail different methods of forecasting. Thus methods range from structural macroeconomic and demographic models with systems of behavioural equations for mid-to-long run forecasts, to data intense time series techniques aimed at short run forecasting.  For every given dataset, a number of models are tested an often combined to obtain the resulting model of the highest predictive power.

In parallel, the forecasts of key economic variables published by national, pan-regional and international sources are being regularly monitored and recorded. The model output and evidence from these sources is then analysed and consolidated by a team of expert economists before arriving at the final figures as published.

All inter-connections between datasets, co-movements of variables in this vast database are carefully observed and taken into account in the process of forecasting.  Our models also account for cross-country and cross-regional economic effects.​