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Country Report

Retailing in Kenya

Aug 2012

Price: US$1,900

About this Report

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Rapid outlet volume expansion but constant value growth lags behind

Store-based retailing saw dynamic outlet volume expansion during the review period, with this driven by ongoing urbanisation and investment from the leading retailers. There was particularly strong investment in hypermarkets, with these often being large outlets positioned as akin to a shopping mall and featuring a number of concessions operated by third party retailers. However, while outlet volume grew constant value sales declined for the review period as a whole. This was due to a number of factors, including widespread poverty and strong and growing informal sales.

High inflation encourages many to trade down in search of cheaper prices

High inflation and widespread unemployment hit many households’ budgets hard in 2011. Consequently, many consumers sought out cheaper prices. This trend resulted in informal dukas performing strongly, with these stores typically based in low-income neighbourhoods and offering a wide range of grocery products and other essentials. In addition, many consumers switched from buying new products to buying via mitumba channels. These channels offer low-priced imported second-hand goods, primarily selling clothing but also a widening range of other products.

Non-grocery gains share

Non-grocery products gained share within overall retailing sales in 2011 over the previous year. This was partly due to many supermarkets offering a widening range of non-grocery items. In addition, non-grocery retailers benefited from ongoing expansion from leading apparel specialist retailer Bata and from the growing number of high-traffic locations available in and around hypermarkets.

Fragmented sales led by domestic grocery retailers

Sales in retailing remained highly fragmented at the end of the review period, with few chains present and a vast number of independent sellers in both formal and informal channels. However, the clear leaders at the end of the review period were Nakumatt, Uchumi and Tusker Mattresses. These players benefit from a longstanding presence in supermarkets and hypermarkets in Kenya and from their well-known brands. All three players also benefited from focusing on the development of large hypermarkets offering a wide range of services towards the end of the review period.

Stronger growth ahead thanks to emergence of mid-income group

Retailing saw constant value sales decline during the review period due to unrest, high inflation and widespread poverty. However, the forecast period is expected to see a return to constant value sales growth. A stronger performance during the forecast period will be linked to the long-term emergence of Kenya’s mid-income group. In addition, growth will be driven by strong investment from the leading players, particularly Nakumatt, Uchumi and Tusker Mattresses in hypermarkets.


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Overview

Discover the latest market trends and uncover sources of future market growth for the Retailing industry in Kenya with research from Euromonitor's team of in-country analysts.

Find hidden opportunities in the most current research data available, understand competitive threats with our detailed market analysis, and plan your corporate strategy with our expert qualitative analysis and growth projections.

If you're in the Retailing industry in Kenya, our research will save you time and money while empowering you to make informed, profitable decisions.

When you purchase this report, you also get the data and the content from these category reports in Kenya for free:

The Retailing in Kenya market research report includes:

  • Analysis of key supply-side and demand trends
  • Detailed segmentation of international and local products
  • Historic number of stores, selling space and values, company and brand market shares
  • Five year forecasts of market trends and market growth
  • Robust and transparent market research methodology, conducted in-country

Our market research reports answer questions such as:

  • How big is the grocery/non-grocery/non-store channel in Kenya?
  • Who are the leading retailers in Kenya?
  • How is retailing performing in Kenya?
  • What is the retailing environment like in Kenya?
  • Which channels are winning or losing in the fight for consumers’ money?

Why buy this report?

  • Gain competitive intelligence about market leaders
  • Track key industry trends, opportunities and threats
  • Inform your marketing, brand, strategy and market development, sales and supply functions

This industry report originates from Passport, our Retailing market research database.

Table of Contents

Table of Contents

Retailing in Kenya - Industry Overview

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Rapid outlet volume expansion but constant value growth lags behind

High inflation encourages many to trade down in search of cheaper prices

Non-grocery gains share

Fragmented sales led by domestic grocery retailers

Stronger growth ahead thanks to emergence of mid-income group

KEY TRENDS AND DEVELOPMENTS

Many struggle due to high inflation in 2011

Government increases tax and wage costs for retailers

Foreign direct investment deterred by corruption and red tape

Rapid urbanisation increases potential consumer base for many retailers

MARKET INDICATORS

  • Table 1 Employment in Retailing 2006-2011

MARKET DATA

  • Table 2 Sales in Retailing by Category: Value 2006-2011
  • Table 3 Sales in Retailing by Category: % Value Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 4 Sales in Retailing by Grocery vs Non-Grocery 2006-2011
  • Table 5 Sales in Store-Based Retailing by Category: Value 2006-2011
  • Table 6 Sales in Store-Based Retailing by Category: % Value Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 7 Retailing Company Shares: % Value 2007-2011
  • Table 8 Retailing Brand Shares: % Value 2008-2011
  • Table 9 Forecast Sales in Retailing by Category: Value 2011-2016
  • Table 10 Forecast Sales in Retailing by Category: % Value Growth 2011-2016
  • Table 11 Forecast Sales in Store-Based Retailing by Category: Value 2011-2016
  • Table 12 Forecast Sales in Store-Based Retailing by Category: % Value Growth 2011-2016

APPENDIX

Operating environment

Cash and carry

DEFINITIONS

SOURCES

  • Summary 1 Research Sources

Retailing in Kenya - Company Profiles

Bata Ltd in Retailing (Kenya)

STRATEGIC DIRECTION

KEY FACTS

INTERNET STRATEGY

COMPANY BACKGROUND

PRIVATE LABEL

COMPETITIVE POSITIONING

  • Summary 4 Bata Ltd: Competitive Position 2011

Nakumatt Holdings Ltd in Retailing (Kenya)

STRATEGIC DIRECTION

KEY FACTS

INTERNET STRATEGY

COMPANY BACKGROUND

PRIVATE LABEL

  • Summary 7 Nakumatt Holdings Ltd: Private Label Portfolio

COMPETITIVE POSITIONING

  • Summary 8 Nakumatt Holdings Ltd: Competitive Position 2011

Tile & Carpet Center in Retailing (Kenya)

STRATEGIC DIRECTION

KEY FACTS

INTERNET STRATEGY

COMPANY BACKGROUND

PRIVATE LABEL

COMPETITIVE POSITIONING

  • Summary 11 Tile & Carpet Center: Competitive Position 2011

Tusker Mattresses in Retailing (Kenya)

STRATEGIC DIRECTION

KEY FACTS

INTERNET STRATEGY

COMPANY BACKGROUND

PRIVATE LABEL

COMPETITIVE POSITIONING

  • Summary 14 Tusker Mattresses: Competitive Position 2011

Uchumi Supermarkets Ltd in Retailing (Kenya)

STRATEGIC DIRECTION

KEY FACTS

INTERNET STRATEGY

COMPANY BACKGROUND

PRIVATE LABEL

COMPETITIVE POSITIONING

  • Summary 17 Uchumi Supermarkets Ltd: Competitive Position 2011

Grocery Retailers in Kenya - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • Grocery retailers face stronger competition from informal retailing at the end of the review period. While dukas accounted for a significant share of food sales throughout the review period, high inflation in food and fuel prices encouraged many more low-income consumers to trade down to these outlets in search of lower prices in 2011. In addition, growing demand for dukas encouraged more of these outlets to open in low-income neighbourhoods.

TRADITIONAL VS MODERN

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

  • Nakumatt was the clear leader in grocery retailers throughout the review period and accounted for 7% value share in 2011. This company benefits from its aggressive marketing and gained share in the last years of the review period thanks to outlet volume expansion. The company notably acquired four Woolmatt Supermarkets in Nairobi in 2010 and opened a total of nine supermarkets and a hypermarket in the year. The company’s outlet volume expansion softened in 2011, with the company opening just two supermarkets. The company has the widest network of grocery retailers in the country.

PROSPECTS

  • Modern grocery retailers is expected to gain share during the forecast period. This growth will partly be linked to outlet volume expansion, particularly for supermarkets and forecourt retailers. In addition, long-term growth will be supported by expansion in Kenya’s mid-income group and ongoing rapid urbanisation.

CHANNEL DATA

  • Table 13 Sales in Grocery Retailers by Category: Value 2006-2011
  • Table 14 Sales in Grocery Retailers by Category: % Value Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 15 Grocery Retailers Company Shares: % Value 2007-2011
  • Table 16 Grocery Retailers Brand Shares: % Value 2008-2011
  • Table 17 Forecast Sales in Grocery Retailers by Category: Value 2011-2016
  • Table 18 Forecast Sales in Grocery Retailers by Category: % Value Growth 2011-2016

Non-Grocery Retailers in Kenya - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • Kenyan consumers are increasingly aspirational in their purchasing selections, with mid-income consumers notably becoming focused on status purchases. However, consumers also faced high inflation of 14% in 2011 and sharp rises in food and fuel prices. Consequently, many consumers traded down to informal channels. Mitumba became increasingly successful, with Kenyans not only visiting mitumba markets in order to buy second-hand goods but also often informally reselling these goods on at a profit. Mitumba mainly impacted apparel specialist retailers at the end of the review period but the range of goods available via this channel continues to expand. By the end of the review period, books, toys, leather goods and homewares could all be found via mitumba channels, while there was also a rise in illegal imports of consumer electronics and consumer appliances. Non-grocery retailers also reported a rise in shoplifting in 2011, both among employees and customers but particularly among the staff responsible for offloading stock.

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

  • Bata is the clear leader in non-grocery retailers and accounted for 10% value share in 2011. The company owes its strength to its strong lead in apparel specialist retailers, where the company accounted for 23% value share in 2011. The company benefits from offering affordable footwear. The company also has a large and expanding outlet volume, opening an additional 10 outlets in the year to reach 107.

PROSPECTS

  • Companies are expected to focus on outlet volume expansion during the forecast period. Kenya remained under-served by chained retailers at the end of the review period, with there being considerable potential to expand. Smaller operators such as Ebrahims Electronics in electronics and appliance specialist retailers are keen to gain a significant share during the forecast period. These players are likely to seek out busy locations that lack a presence by major chains, with a strong focus on smaller towns. Many retailers feel that this is a time of opportunity and that the retailers that expand most rapidly are likely to gain and retain a leadership position in their channels. There is also expected to be a strong focus on improving customer service during the forecast period as players seek to build up customer loyalty.

CHANNEL DATA

  • Table 19 Sales in Non-Grocery Retailers by Category: Value 2006-2011
  • Table 20 Sales in Non-Grocery Retailers by Category: % Value Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 21 Non-Grocery Retailers Company Shares: % Value 2007-2011
  • Table 22 Non-Grocery Retailers Brand Shares: % Value 2008-2011
  • Table 23 Forecast Sales in Non-Grocery Retailers by Category: Value 2011-2016
  • Table 24 Forecast Sales in Non-Grocery Retailers by Category: % Value Growth 2011-2016

Non-Store Retailing in Kenya - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • Non-store retailing remained limited at the end of the review period, with sales of just KES638 million or less than half a percentage point of overall retailing. Sales continued to be limited by many consumers’ suspicions, with a strong preference for inspecting goods before purchase and paying in cash. Sales are also limited by a lack of strong competitors. Direct selling is the dominant channel with 85% value share in 2011, while the only two significant players are GNLD and Tianshi. Many consumers regard all direct selling players as akin to pyramid or Ponzi schemes, which deters many Kenyans from shopping or working in this channel.

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

  • The only two significant players in non-store retailing are GNLD and Tianshi, with these companies jointly dominating direct selling. GNLD leads with 47% value share in overall non-store retailing, followed by Tianshi with 22% share. Both companies use multi-level marketing and neither have their origins in Kenya. GNLD is based in South Africa, where the company also produces the bulk of its range, while Tianshi is a Chinese company. GNLD mainly offers upper-mass consumer healthcare and home care, while Tianshi mainly offers premium beauty and personal care.

PROSPECTS

  • There is expected to be an expansion in the direct selling workforce during the forecast period. The dominant companies GNLD and Tianshi focused on expanding their sales force towards the end of the review period and are expected to continue to do so during the forecast period, while newcomer Oriflame is also expected to fight to build its sales network. As these companies attract more sellers, the popularity of working in direct selling is expected to snowball. Word-of-mouth recommendations are likely to reassure many consumers regarding the legitimacy of these leading direct selling companies, while widespread unemployment in the country will also result in many being attracted to direct selling as a career. Direct selling is thus expected to see the strongest growth during the forecast period, with this growth largely driven by home care and consumer healthcare. This reflects the product ranges of the dominant players in the channel.

CHANNEL DATA

  • Table 25 Sales in Non-Store Retailing by Category: Value 2006-2011
  • Table 26 Sales in Non-Store Retailing by Category: % Value Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 27 Non-Store Retailing Company Shares: % Value 2007-2011
  • Table 28 Non-Store Retailing Brand Shares: % Value 2008-2011
  • Table 29 Forecast Sales in Non-Store Retailing by Category: Value 2011-2016
  • Table 30 Forecast Sales in Non-Store Retailing by Category: % Value Growth 2011-2016

Segmentation

Segmentation

This market research report includes the following:

  • Retailing
    • Store-based Retailing
      • Grocery Retailers
        • Modern Grocery Retailers
          • Convenience Stores
          • Discounters
          • Forecourt Retailers
            • Chained Forecourt Retailers
            • Independent Forecourt Retailers
          • Hypermarkets
          • Supermarkets
        • Traditional Grocery Retailers
          • Food/Drink/Tobacco Specialists
          • Independent Small Grocers
          • Other Grocery Retailers
      • Non-Grocery Retailers
        • Apparel Specialist Retailers
        • Electronics and Appliance Specialist Retailers
        • Health and Beauty Specialist Retailers
          • Beauty Specialist Retailers
          • Chemists/Pharmacies
          • Parapharmacies/Drugstores
          • Other Healthcare Specialist Retailers
        • Home and Garden Specialist Retailers
          • DIY, Home Improvement and Garden Centres
          • Furniture and Furnishings Stores
        • Leisure and Personal Goods Specialist Retailers
          • Jewellers
          • Media Products Stores
          • Pet Shops and Superstores
          • Sports Goods Stores
          • Stationers/Office Supply Stores
          • Traditional Toys and Games Stores
          • Other Leisure and Personal Goods Specialist Retailers
        • Mixed Retailers
          • Department Stores
          • Mass Merchandisers
          • Variety Stores
          • Warehouse Clubs
        • Other Non-Grocery Retailers
    • Non-Store Retailing
      • Direct Selling
        • Beauty and Personal Care Direct Selling
        • Apparel Direct Selling
        • Consumer Electronics and Video Games Hardware Direct Selling
        • Consumer Healthcare Direct Selling
        • DIY and Gardening Direct Selling
        • Consumer Appliances Direct Selling
        • Home Care Direct Selling
        • Housewares and Home Furnishings Direct Selling
        • Media Products Direct Selling
        • Food and Drink Direct Selling
        • Toys and Games Direct Selling
        • Other Direct Selling
      • Homeshopping
        • Beauty and Personal Care Homeshopping
        • Apparel Homeshopping
        • Consumer Electronics and Video Games Hardware Homeshopping
        • Consumer Healthcare Homeshopping
        • DIY and Gardening Homeshopping
        • Consumer Appliances Homeshopping
        • Home Care Homeshopping
        • Housewares and Home Furnishings Homeshopping
        • Media Products Homeshopping
        • Food and Drink Homeshopping
        • Toys and Games Homeshopping
        • Other Homeshopping
      • Internet Retailing
        • Beauty and Personal Care Internet Retailing
        • Apparel Internet Retailing
        • Consumer Electronics and Video Games Hardware Internet Retailing
        • Consumer Healthcare Internet Retailing
        • DIY and Gardening Internet Retailing
        • Consumer Appliances Internet Retailing
        • Home Care Internet Retailing
        • Housewares and Home Furnishings Internet Retailing
        • Media Products Internet Retailing
        • Food and Drink Internet Retailing
        • Toys and Games Internet Retailing
        • Other Internet Retailing
      • Vending
        • Packaged Drinks Vending
        • Packaged Foods Vending
        • Personal Hygiene Products Vending
        • Tobacco Products Vending
        • Unpackaged Drinks Vending
        • Toys and Games Vending
        • Other Products Vending

Statistics Included

Statistics Included

For each category and subcategory you will receive the following data in Excel format:

From Passport

  • Market sizes
  • Company shares
  • Brand shares
  • Employment
  • Grocery vs non-grocery

Market size details:

  • Retail value retail selling price excl sales tax % growth
  • Retail value retail selling price excl sales tax local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Retail value retail selling price excl sales tax per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Sites/outlets
  • Sites/outlets % growth
  • Sites/outlets per capita
  • Selling space
  • Selling space % growth
  • Selling space per capita
  • Retail value retail selling price incl sales tax % growth
  • Retail value retail selling price incl sales tax local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Retail value retail selling price incl sales tax per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY

Methodology

Methodology

Global insight and local knowledge

With 40 years’ experience of developed and emerging markets, Euromonitor International’s research method is built on a unique combination of specialist industry knowledge and in-country research expertise.

This approach is what enables us to achieve our goal of building a market consensus view of size, shape and trends across the full distribution universe of each category. We factor in whichever channels are relevant, from large-scale grocery to direct sellers, from discount stores to local mom-and-pop outlets.

Industry specialists

Each industry we cover is managed by an Industry Manager and team of Industry Analysts who research and report on their specialist categories all year round.

Our collaborative approach to research means that these industry teams are in constant dialogue with industry players and opinion formers. The planning of our research programmes reflects latest market trends and industry events. In completing each update project, this provides invaluable input to the testing, review and finalisation of our data.

The specialist in-house teams bring together findings from all stages of the annual research process. They work closely with in-country analysts, assess and challenge data and exercise final editorial control over the publication of new data and analysis.

Country and regional analysts

Our in-country analyst network is managed by country and regional analysts in our offices around the world. Working closely with each in-country team, the regional research management team ensures that all country researchers are well schooled in best practices, from the information collected in store checks, to the dialogue we build in trade surveys. Our country analysts ensure that national reports explain the data trends and provide clear insights into the local market’s dynamics.

In-country research network

To deliver fresh insights every year in countries all around the world, we believe the strongest approach is to use analysts on the ground. They bring fluency in local language, physical proximity to the best sources, an ability to engage directly with local industry contacts, and an awareness of how the products and services we study are advertised, sold and consumed. These are essential parts of our ability to report incisively on these markets.

Research Methodology

Our research methods

Each Euromonitor International industry report is based on a core set of research techniques:

Desk research

With industry events, corporate activity, trends and new product introductions tracked year round by our industry team, desk research provides a starting point for the in-country research programme. Our in-country researchers will access the following sources:

  • National statistics offices governmental and official sources
  • National and international trade press
  • National and international trade associations
  • Industry study groups and other semi-official sources
  • Company financials and annual reports
  • Broker reports
  • Online databases
  • The financial, business and mainstream press

Accessing sources is only the first step. The ability to interpret and reconcile often conflicting information across multiple sources is a key aspect of the added value we provide.

Store checks

Store checks are an integral part of our methods for product industries. Carried out on the ground across a relevant mix of channels, the information gained provides first-hand insights into the products we are researching, specifically:

  • Place: We track products in all relevant channels, selective and mass, store and non-store
  • Product: What are innovations in products, pack sizes and formats?
  • Price: What are brand price variations across channels, how do private label’s prices compare to those of branded goods?
  • Promotion: What are marketing and merchandising trends, offers, discounts and tie-ins?

Findings are cross-referenced with brand share data analysis. The results, combined with the findings of desk research, provide a strong basis for identifying key areas of questioning to take forward into our trade survey.

Trade survey

Interaction with global players at corporate HQ and regional levels is complemented by unique local data and insights from our in-country trade surveys around the world. Through the high profile of the Euromonitor International brand, we are able to talk directly to a wide range of sources and therefore inform our analysis with the knowledge and opinions of the leading operators in the market.

Trade surveys allow us to:

  • Fill gaps in available published data per company
  • Generate a consensus view of the size, structure and strategic direction of the category
  • Access year-in-progress data where published sources are out of date
  • Evaluate the experts’ views on current trends and market developments

In building our composite industry view, we engage with a variety of personnel in key players at all points of the supply chain: materials suppliers, manufacturers, distributors, retailers and service operators. We also interview desk research sources: industry associations; study groups; and third party observers from the trade and financial press.

Our objective is to engage in conversation with trade sources in which we exchange ideas and views on the industry, sharing our work-in-progress findings on supply/demand dynamics and potential. This dialogue enhances both parties’ understanding of the local market. The scope and reach of our trade survey also serves to eliminate bias (intentional and unintentional) from any single source.

Company analysis

At a global level, our company research combines our mix of industry interaction and use of secondary sources such as annual accounts, broker reports, financial press and databases. From a data perspective, the aim is to build “top-down” estimates of major players’ total global and regional sales.

At a country level, in line with local reporting requirements, we access annual accounts, national-specific company databases and local company websites. These are all invaluable sources as we build a view of each domestic player’s size and position within very specific categories of the industry.

Forecasts

Data projections and future performance analysis are key elements of Euromonitor International’s market intelligence. Working with historic trends of 15 years or more, a key aspect of our trade survey is to engage industry insider views of the next five years. Will volumes maintain their historic trend? Will price increases or falls of recent years continue, accelerate or slow down? Will increasing demand for one product cannibalise sales of another?

Forecasts represent many of the essential conclusions we have reached about the current state of the market, how it works and how it behaves under different macro and micro conditions. Our written analysis will state the assumptions and the trade opinion behind whether our predictions are optimistic or pessimistic, so that clients can use our statistical forecasts with confidence.

Data validation

All data is subjected to an exhaustive review process, at country, regional and global levels.

The interpretation and review of sources and data inputs forms a central part of the collaboration between industry teams and country researchers. Numbers are delivered to regional and global offices with an audit trail of sources and calculations to allow for a thorough evaluation of data sense and integrity.

Upon completion of the country review phase, data is then reviewed on a comparative basis at regional and then at a global level. Comparative checks are carried out on per capita consumption and spending levels, growth rates, patterns of category and subcategory breakdowns and distribution of sales by channel. Top-down estimates are reviewed against bottom-up regional and global market and company sales totals.

Where marked differences are seen between proximate country markets or ones at similar developmental levels, supplementary research is conducted in the relevant countries to confirm and/or amend those findings. This process ensures international comparability across the database, that consistent category and subcategory definitions have been used and that all data has been correctly tested. We make sure that possible discrepancies between different published sources have been reconciled and that our interpretation of opinion and expectation from each country’s trade sources has been applied to form a coherent international pattern.

Market analysis

Another integral part of all our research programmes is that all Euromonitor International data is accompanied by clear written analysis. From a research perspective, this explains and substantiates data findings. From a client perspective, this offers unique insights into local consumption trends, routes to market, brand preferences, channel dynamics and future trends.

Our country level analysis also provides invaluable input into the ability of our central industry specialist teams to marry local insights with strategic conclusions on the direction of the market regionally and globally.

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