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Country Report

Retailing in Lithuania

Feb 2012

Price: US$1,900

About this Report

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Lithuanian retailing continues its sluggish performance

The sobering period for the country’s economy as well as retailing continued in 2011. After rapid contraction of trade by almost a fifth in 2009 and another dip in 2010, retailing began what appeared to be a slow and painful rise to pre-crisis levels. Consumers began to see a marginal improvement in their disposable incomes and even more importantly, finally started spending again. Companies adjusted to the new reality by closing unprofitable stores and optimising their operations, which makes them better positioned for future growth.

Retailing records growth in 2011

After two consecutive years of contraction, sales finally picked up in 2011. However, a significant proportion of growth was influenced by price increases. High prices in global commodity markets made the most necessary items such as food more expensive, eating up all the profits of retailers and leaving them with meagre profits. A stagnating labour market, with a painfully high unemployment rate and still suppressed wages meant that consumers were forced to continue with their recession-inspired frugality. Similarly, the public sector continued to face cuts as the government tried to get the debt and budget deficit under control and avoid the fate of Southern Europe countries.

Grocery retailers performs marginally better than non-grocery format

As consumers were forced to continue with their belt-tightening spending regimes, more money was allocated to items of first-necessity. Lithuanians spend around a quarter of their disposable income on food, which leaves them with little for anything else. The major hindrance for non-grocery sellers was the slowdown of the housing market. With some categories, such as home and garden specialists, largely dependent on housing, disappointing results were hardly surprising. Other categories fell victim to price wars – statisticians recorded deflation of apparel goods for several months in 2011. Internet sales were a bright spot, for both grocery and non-grocery goods. However, this was mostly the result of a low growth base as Lithuania is still behind many developed countries.

Little disruption in competitive positioning in mature landscape

Despite the popular clichés about not letting a good crisis go to waste, few companies actually succeeded, or even tried aggressively, to overthrow the leaders. All the companies which dominated retailing, both grocery and non-grocery, maintained their positions and in some cases even expanded the gap. Admittedly, this was not that difficult to do, considering the drought of credit faced by potential expanders. Meanwhile, consumers showed little loyalty for particular stores, flocking to the outlets that offered the deepest discounts at the time. As the companies’ results showed, none of the players managed to improve their positions using this technique.

Consumers and retailers find themselves uneasy regarding future prospects

Retailers only have so many incentives at their disposal with which to increase sales and most of them, such as discounts, risk doing more harm than good to the end profit, which leads to realisation that sales will closely correlate with general health of the economy. Since the government has a limited number of tools in its box as well, (depreciation of the currency is impossible as it is pegged to the Euro) industry participants employ a rather stoic approach to the current and future developments. Ironically, this might lead to a better future performance as retailers finally rid themselves of illusions about double-digit growth rates recorded in the past. As a result, attention to matters they can change – such as management of inventory, better service and increasing presence on the internet – will foster future growth.


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Overview

Discover the latest market trends and uncover sources of future market growth for the Retailing industry in Lithuania with research from Euromonitor's team of in-country analysts.

Find hidden opportunities in the most current research data available, understand competitive threats with our detailed market analysis, and plan your corporate strategy with our expert qualitative analysis and growth projections.

If you're in the Retailing industry in Lithuania, our research will save you time and money while empowering you to make informed, profitable decisions.

When you purchase this report, you also get the data and the content from these category reports in Lithuania for free:

The Retailing in Lithuania market research report includes:

  • Analysis of key supply-side and demand trends
  • Detailed segmentation of international and local products
  • Historic number of stores, selling space and values, company and brand market shares
  • Five year forecasts of market trends and market growth
  • Robust and transparent market research methodology, conducted in-country

Our market research reports answer questions such as:

  • How big is the grocery/non-grocery/non-store channel in Lithuania?
  • Who are the leading retailers in Lithuania?
  • How is retailing performing in Lithuania?
  • What is the retailing environment like in Lithuania?
  • Which channels are winning or losing in the fight for consumers’ money?

Why buy this report?

  • Gain competitive intelligence about market leaders
  • Track key industry trends, opportunities and threats
  • Inform your marketing, brand, strategy and market development, sales and supply functions

This industry report originates from Passport, our Retailing market research database.

Table of Contents

Table of Contents

Retailing in Lithuania - Industry Overview

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Lithuanian retailing continues its sluggish performance

Retailing records growth in 2011

Grocery retailers performs marginally better than non-grocery format

Little disruption in competitive positioning in mature landscape

Consumers and retailers find themselves uneasy regarding future prospects

KEY TRENDS AND DEVELOPMENTS

Fragile state of the economy dampers optimism

Loose government regulation remains for now

Foreign direct investment adding to the revival of economy

Ageing population threatens future performance

Local origin of production pushed by retailers, with various results

Internet plays increasing role in retailing

MARKET INDICATORS

  • Table 1 Employment in Retailing 2006-2011

MARKET DATA

  • Table 2 Sales in Retailing by Category: Value 2006-2011
  • Table 3 Sales in Retailing by Category: % Value Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 4 Sales in Retailing by Grocery vs Non-Grocery 2006-2011
  • Table 5 Sales in Store-Based Retailing by Category: Value 2006-2011
  • Table 6 Sales in Store-Based Retailing by Category: % Value Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 7 Retailing Company Shares: % Value 2007-2011
  • Table 8 Retailing Brand Shares: % Value 2008-2011
  • Table 9 Forecast Sales in Retailing by Category: Value 2011-2016
  • Table 10 Forecast Sales in Retailing by Category: % Value Growth 2011-2016
  • Table 11 Forecast Sales in Store-Based Retailing by Category: Value 2011-2016
  • Table 12 Forecast Sales in Store-Based Retailing by Category: % Value Growth 2011-2016

APPENDIX

Operating environment

Cash and carry

DEFINITIONS

  • Summary 1 Research Sources

Retailing in Lithuania - Company Profiles

Drogas UAB in Retailing (Lithuania)

STRATEGIC DIRECTION

KEY FACTS

INTERNET STRATEGY

COMPANY BACKGROUND

PRIVATE LABEL

  • Summary 4 Drogas UAB: Private Label Portfolio

COMPETITIVE POSITIONING

  • Summary 5 Drogas UAB: Competitive Position 2011

Maxima LT UAB in Retailing (Lithuania)

STRATEGIC DIRECTION

KEY FACTS

INTERNET STRATEGY

COMPANY BACKGROUND

PRIVATE LABEL

  • Summary 8 Maxima LT UAB: Private Label Portfolio

COMPETITIVE POSITIONING

  • Summary 9 Maxima LT UAB: Competitive Position 2011

Norfos Mazmena UAB in Retailing (Lithuania)

STRATEGIC DIRECTION

KEY FACTS

INTERNET STRATEGY

COMPANY BACKGROUND

PRIVATE LABEL

  • Summary 12 Norfos Mazmena UAB: Private Label Portfolio

COMPETITIVE POSITIONING

  • Summary 13 Norfos Mazmena UAB: Competitive Position 2011

Palink UAB in Retailing (Lithuania)

STRATEGIC DIRECTION

KEY FACTS

INTERNET STRATEGY

COMPANY BACKGROUND

PRIVATE LABEL

  • Summary 16 Palink UAB: Private Label Portfolio

COMPETITIVE POSITIONING

  • Summary 17 Palink UAB: Competitive Position 2011

Rimi Lietuva UAB in Retailing (Lithuania)

STRATEGIC DIRECTION

KEY FACTS

INTERNET STRATEGY

COMPANY BACKGROUND

PRIVATE LABEL

  • Summary 20 Rimi Lietuva UAB: Private Label Portfolio

COMPETITIVE POSITIONING

  • Summary 21 Rimi Lietuva UAB: Competitive Position 2011

Grocery Retailers in Lithuania - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • Grocery retailers did not make any radical changes in 2011. Instead, the channel moved in incremental steps. The adoption of the post- recessionary shopping habits was the most noticeable. The ability to offer low prices dominated retailing as the search for low prices was no longer a shameful habit even for the affluent shoppers. Both the stores and the products in them became just a little less glossy, all with the purpose of offering the best value-for-money offering. At the same time, serving the needs of gourmands was not neglected as the increasing number of food and drinks specialists raised the bar both in terms of assortment and qualified advice.

TRADITIONAL VS MODERN

CHANNEL FORMATS

  • Chart 1 Modern Grocery Retailers: Maxima X in Vilnius
  • Chart 2 Modern Grocery Retailers: Supernetto in Skuodas
  • Chart 3 Modern Grocery Retailers: Lietuvos Spauda in Skuodas
  • Chart 4 Modern Grocery Retailers: Iki in Skuodas
  • Chart 5 Modern Grocery Retailers: NorfaXL in Skuodas
  • Chart 6 Modern Grocery Retailers: MaximaX in Skuodas
  • Chart 7 Modern Grocery Retailers: Rimi in Skuodas
  • Chart 8 Traditional Grocery Retailers: Zemaitijos Pienas in Skuodas
  • Chart 9 Traditional Grocery Retailers: Gerimai Ir Geles in Skuodas

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

  • Maxima LT remained undisputed leader of grocery retailers with a value share of 43% in 2011, up by one percentage point compared to 2010. The company is well ahead of its competitors in categories such as hypermarkets and supermarkets, it is also a significant player in convenience stores as well. The company is among the largest spenders on advertising, which strengthens its positions in the marketplace, but it is its impressive number of stores – 222 at the end of 2011 – that helps it outsell its competitors. The player spent many years searching for a coherent marketing strategy with names of stores changed continuously. That search seems to be over now, with all of the stores selling under the Maxima brand with X, XX, or XXX signalling the size of a particular store. Hyper, Maxima Baze and Baze XXX are largest of the stores. There is not much room left for growth of the company in Lithuania as the maximum threshold for a company in a particular industry is 40%, according to Lithuanian competition laws. It is not a tightly kept secret that these laws were introduced with Maxima LT UAB in mind as the politicians became uneasy about the growing bargaining power of the retailer. Faced with these restrictions, the company is expanding into other markets – Latvia, Estonia and Bulgaria.

PROSPECTS

  • The trends observed in grocery retailers are expected to be medium-term. The frugality of consumers is not expected to go away any time soon as the ongoing worries about the weak economy continue to plague consumers. Rising heating bills are another threat to the growth of sales as some consumers, especially the older ones, are left with few disposable incomes after paying their monthly payments. However, over the longer period of time, once the level of unemployment recedes from the historical highs, Lithuanians are expected to increase their spending on groceries, moving to better quality goods.

CHANNEL DATA

  • Table 13 Sales in Grocery Retailers by Category: Value 2006-2011
  • Table 14 Sales in Grocery Retailers by Category: % Value Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 15 Grocery Retailers Company Shares: % Value 2007-2011
  • Table 16 Grocery Retailers Brand Shares: % Value 2008-2011
  • Table 17 Forecast Sales in Grocery Retailers by Category: Value 2011-2016
  • Table 18 Forecast Sales in Grocery Retailers by Category: % Value Growth 2011-2016

Non-Grocery Retailers in Lithuania - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • Continuing woes of the economy of Lithuania, mainly high levels of unemployment, reduced wages and rising costs of living had a severe impact on the development of non-grocery retailing. The confidence of consumers remained low as most of them did view the future with great expectations. The mood was similar with credit companies which remained reluctant to lend for purchases that consumers could not afford to pay at once. Another problem for the category was a stagnating housing market which previously was the main driver of growth, especially in the categories such as DIY, furniture and furnishing and consumer appliances. Lastly, non-grocery retailing continued to suffer from overexpansion during the pre-crisis years when consumption exceeded the needs by any rational measure. As a result, consumers were left with enough products for the time being and felt no urge to purchase new items.

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

  • Despite the ongoing stagnation in housing, Senuku Prekybos Centras UAB retained its leading position in non-grocery retailers with 13% retail value share, the same as the previous year. Considering the fact that few new residential properties were built in recent years, Senuku’s performance should be viewed as a success. This is largely because of its first mover advantage – it was one of the first to enter home and garden specialist retailers and successfully expanded, starting with the largest cities and later moving into less populated areas. Its 94 stores at the end of 2011 is not among the highest of all companies, but still it is no small accomplishment, considering the vast space that each of the stores occupies, as illustrated by its brand Senukai’s leading 15% selling space. The outlook for the company is bright, considering the expected rebound of real estate. Only the strengthening rivals, such as Makveza UAB, could prevent the company from significantly increasing its sales over the early part of the forecast period.

PROSPECTS

  • Rising disposable income is what non-grocery retailers – existing and potential – pray for as it is only after the return of consumer confidence that the channel can truly signal the end of the difficulties. With a rare exception, such as healthcare, most non-grocery retailers are selling goods consumers can live without, or at least delay the purchases for a very long time. Purchases of clothes, electronics and books end up at the bottom of the priority list. A large portion of retailers, especially home and garden retailers, depend on the revival of the housing market, which was already showing signs of rebound at the end of the review period.

CHANNEL FORMATS

  • Chart 10 Non-Grocery Retailers: Lindex in Vilnius
  • Chart 11 Non-Grocery Retailers: Zara in Vilnius
  • Chart 12 Non-Grocery retailers: Electro Markt in Skuodas
  • Chart 13 Non-Grocery retailers: Sarma in Skuodas
  • Chart 14 Non-Grocery retailers: Viskas Uz 1 Eura in Skuodas
  • Chart 15 Non-Grocery retailers: Pigus Rubai in Skuodas
  • Chart 16 Non-Grocery retailers: Drogas in Skuodas

CHANNEL DATA

  • Table 19 Sales in Non-Grocery Retailers by Category: Value 2006-2011
  • Table 20 Sales in Non-Grocery Retailers by Category: % Value Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 21 Non-Grocery Retailers Company Shares: % Value 2007-2011
  • Table 22 Non-Grocery Retailers Brand Shares: % Value 2008-2011
  • Table 23 Forecast Sales in Non-Grocery Retailers by Category: Value 2011-2016
  • Table 24 Forecast Sales in Non-Grocery Retailers by Category: % Value Growth 2011-2016

Non-Store Retailing in Lithuania - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • Non-store retailing has never been a high-performing channel in Lithuania in terms of value. Only some specific products, such as cosmetics, are routinely purchased by shoppers via non-store channels. Lack of tradition is the main reason for the meagre share of non-store sales compared to store-based retailing as Lithuanians simply trust sellers without physical stores just a little less than traditional ventures. Legal issues also hinder the development of the channel – sales agents of direct selling face double taxing in cases when this is not their only income. Sales are on the rise, however, mostly because of rising familiarity of consumers with non-store retailers and a positive experience, which leads to increased trust. Most of all, after years of increasing internet penetration, internet retailing is witnessing a fairly rapid rise, underpinning the growth of non-store retailing as a whole.

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

  • Avon Cosmetics UAB, a direct seller offering primarily cosmetics, was the leading non-store player in 2011 with 7% value share. This player has been active in direct selling for a fairly long time and has a wide network of agents. According to the Lithuanian Direct Sellers Association, over 31,000 people in the country are working as sales agents and Avon has the largest share of all. The company has a good reputation among purchasers who have tried its products and they were not disappointed. The company also stood out from its competitors by adapting to the changed needs of consumers – introducing a larger number of value products in its portfolio.

PROSPECTS

  • Non-store retailing is projected to continue to gain share from traditional store-based retailers, mostly because of rising internet trade. The arrival of Amway should give steam to direct sellers as well. Provided consumers are satisfied with the goods offered, the purchase from direct sellers will become much more acceptable (currently 8% by this way regularly, according to surveys). Vending companies will have to show some patience as consumers’ money-saving habits towards the end of the review period prevented the companies from showing strong results.

CHANNEL DATA

  • Table 25 Sales in Non-Store Retailing by Category: Value 2006-2011
  • Table 26 Sales in Non-Store Retailing by Category: % Value Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 27 Non-Store Retailing Company Shares: % Value 2007-2011
  • Table 28 Non-Store Retailing Brand Shares: % Value 2008-2011
  • Table 29 Forecast Sales in Non-Store Retailing by Category: Value 2011-2016
  • Table 30 Forecast Sales in Non-Store Retailing by Category: % Value Growth 2011-2016

Segmentation

Segmentation

This market research report includes the following:

  • Retailing
    • Store-based Retailing
      • Grocery Retailers
        • Modern Grocery Retailers
          • Convenience Stores
          • Discounters
          • Forecourt Retailers
            • Chained Forecourt Retailers
            • Independent Forecourt Retailers
          • Hypermarkets
          • Supermarkets
        • Traditional Grocery Retailers
          • Food/Drink/Tobacco Specialists
          • Independent Small Grocers
          • Other Grocery Retailers
      • Non-Grocery Retailers
        • Apparel Specialist Retailers
        • Electronics and Appliance Specialist Retailers
        • Health and Beauty Specialist Retailers
          • Beauty Specialist Retailers
          • Chemists/Pharmacies
          • Parapharmacies/Drugstores
          • Other Healthcare Specialist Retailers
        • Home and Garden Specialist Retailers
          • DIY, Home Improvement and Garden Centres
          • Furniture and Furnishings Stores
        • Leisure and Personal Goods Specialist Retailers
          • Jewellers
          • Media Products Stores
          • Pet Shops and Superstores
          • Sports Goods Stores
          • Stationers/Office Supply Stores
          • Traditional Toys and Games Stores
          • Other Leisure and Personal Goods Specialist Retailers
        • Mixed Retailers
          • Department Stores
          • Mass Merchandisers
          • Variety Stores
          • Warehouse Clubs
        • Other Non-Grocery Retailers
    • Non-Store Retailing
      • Direct Selling
        • Beauty and Personal Care Direct Selling
        • Apparel Direct Selling
        • Consumer Electronics and Video Games Hardware Direct Selling
        • Consumer Healthcare Direct Selling
        • DIY and Gardening Direct Selling
        • Consumer Appliances Direct Selling
        • Home Care Direct Selling
        • Housewares and Home Furnishings Direct Selling
        • Media Products Direct Selling
        • Food and Drink Direct Selling
        • Toys and Games Direct Selling
        • Other Direct Selling
      • Homeshopping
        • Beauty and Personal Care Homeshopping
        • Apparel Homeshopping
        • Consumer Electronics and Video Games Hardware Homeshopping
        • Consumer Healthcare Homeshopping
        • DIY and Gardening Homeshopping
        • Consumer Appliances Homeshopping
        • Home Care Homeshopping
        • Housewares and Home Furnishings Homeshopping
        • Media Products Homeshopping
        • Food and Drink Homeshopping
        • Toys and Games Homeshopping
        • Other Homeshopping
      • Internet Retailing
        • Beauty and Personal Care Internet Retailing
        • Apparel Internet Retailing
        • Consumer Electronics and Video Games Hardware Internet Retailing
        • Consumer Healthcare Internet Retailing
        • DIY and Gardening Internet Retailing
        • Consumer Appliances Internet Retailing
        • Home Care Internet Retailing
        • Housewares and Home Furnishings Internet Retailing
        • Media Products Internet Retailing
        • Food and Drink Internet Retailing
        • Toys and Games Internet Retailing
        • Other Internet Retailing
      • Vending
        • Packaged Drinks Vending
        • Packaged Foods Vending
        • Personal Hygiene Products Vending
        • Tobacco Products Vending
        • Unpackaged Drinks Vending
        • Toys and Games Vending
        • Other Products Vending

Statistics Included

Statistics Included

For each category and subcategory you will receive the following data in Excel format:

From Passport

  • Market sizes
  • Company shares
  • Brand shares
  • Employment
  • Grocery vs non-grocery

Market size details:

  • Retail value retail selling price excl sales tax % growth
  • Retail value retail selling price excl sales tax local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Retail value retail selling price excl sales tax per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Sites/outlets
  • Sites/outlets % growth
  • Sites/outlets per capita
  • Selling space
  • Selling space % growth
  • Selling space per capita
  • Retail value retail selling price incl sales tax % growth
  • Retail value retail selling price incl sales tax local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Retail value retail selling price incl sales tax per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY

Methodology

Methodology

Global insight and local knowledge

With 40 years’ experience of developed and emerging markets, Euromonitor International’s research method is built on a unique combination of specialist industry knowledge and in-country research expertise.

This approach is what enables us to achieve our goal of building a market consensus view of size, shape and trends across the full distribution universe of each category. We factor in whichever channels are relevant, from large-scale grocery to direct sellers, from discount stores to local mom-and-pop outlets.

Industry specialists

Each industry we cover is managed by an Industry Manager and team of Industry Analysts who research and report on their specialist categories all year round.

Our collaborative approach to research means that these industry teams are in constant dialogue with industry players and opinion formers. The planning of our research programmes reflects latest market trends and industry events. In completing each update project, this provides invaluable input to the testing, review and finalisation of our data.

The specialist in-house teams bring together findings from all stages of the annual research process. They work closely with in-country analysts, assess and challenge data and exercise final editorial control over the publication of new data and analysis.

Country and regional analysts

Our in-country analyst network is managed by country and regional analysts in our offices around the world. Working closely with each in-country team, the regional research management team ensures that all country researchers are well schooled in best practices, from the information collected in store checks, to the dialogue we build in trade surveys. Our country analysts ensure that national reports explain the data trends and provide clear insights into the local market’s dynamics.

In-country research network

To deliver fresh insights every year in countries all around the world, we believe the strongest approach is to use analysts on the ground. They bring fluency in local language, physical proximity to the best sources, an ability to engage directly with local industry contacts, and an awareness of how the products and services we study are advertised, sold and consumed. These are essential parts of our ability to report incisively on these markets.

Research Methodology

Our research methods

Each Euromonitor International industry report is based on a core set of research techniques:

Desk research

With industry events, corporate activity, trends and new product introductions tracked year round by our industry team, desk research provides a starting point for the in-country research programme. Our in-country researchers will access the following sources:

  • National statistics offices governmental and official sources
  • National and international trade press
  • National and international trade associations
  • Industry study groups and other semi-official sources
  • Company financials and annual reports
  • Broker reports
  • Online databases
  • The financial, business and mainstream press

Accessing sources is only the first step. The ability to interpret and reconcile often conflicting information across multiple sources is a key aspect of the added value we provide.

Store checks

Store checks are an integral part of our methods for product industries. Carried out on the ground across a relevant mix of channels, the information gained provides first-hand insights into the products we are researching, specifically:

  • Place: We track products in all relevant channels, selective and mass, store and non-store
  • Product: What are innovations in products, pack sizes and formats?
  • Price: What are brand price variations across channels, how do private label’s prices compare to those of branded goods?
  • Promotion: What are marketing and merchandising trends, offers, discounts and tie-ins?

Findings are cross-referenced with brand share data analysis. The results, combined with the findings of desk research, provide a strong basis for identifying key areas of questioning to take forward into our trade survey.

Trade survey

Interaction with global players at corporate HQ and regional levels is complemented by unique local data and insights from our in-country trade surveys around the world. Through the high profile of the Euromonitor International brand, we are able to talk directly to a wide range of sources and therefore inform our analysis with the knowledge and opinions of the leading operators in the market.

Trade surveys allow us to:

  • Fill gaps in available published data per company
  • Generate a consensus view of the size, structure and strategic direction of the category
  • Access year-in-progress data where published sources are out of date
  • Evaluate the experts’ views on current trends and market developments

In building our composite industry view, we engage with a variety of personnel in key players at all points of the supply chain: materials suppliers, manufacturers, distributors, retailers and service operators. We also interview desk research sources: industry associations; study groups; and third party observers from the trade and financial press.

Our objective is to engage in conversation with trade sources in which we exchange ideas and views on the industry, sharing our work-in-progress findings on supply/demand dynamics and potential. This dialogue enhances both parties’ understanding of the local market. The scope and reach of our trade survey also serves to eliminate bias (intentional and unintentional) from any single source.

Company analysis

At a global level, our company research combines our mix of industry interaction and use of secondary sources such as annual accounts, broker reports, financial press and databases. From a data perspective, the aim is to build “top-down” estimates of major players’ total global and regional sales.

At a country level, in line with local reporting requirements, we access annual accounts, national-specific company databases and local company websites. These are all invaluable sources as we build a view of each domestic player’s size and position within very specific categories of the industry.

Forecasts

Data projections and future performance analysis are key elements of Euromonitor International’s market intelligence. Working with historic trends of 15 years or more, a key aspect of our trade survey is to engage industry insider views of the next five years. Will volumes maintain their historic trend? Will price increases or falls of recent years continue, accelerate or slow down? Will increasing demand for one product cannibalise sales of another?

Forecasts represent many of the essential conclusions we have reached about the current state of the market, how it works and how it behaves under different macro and micro conditions. Our written analysis will state the assumptions and the trade opinion behind whether our predictions are optimistic or pessimistic, so that clients can use our statistical forecasts with confidence.

Data validation

All data is subjected to an exhaustive review process, at country, regional and global levels.

The interpretation and review of sources and data inputs forms a central part of the collaboration between industry teams and country researchers. Numbers are delivered to regional and global offices with an audit trail of sources and calculations to allow for a thorough evaluation of data sense and integrity.

Upon completion of the country review phase, data is then reviewed on a comparative basis at regional and then at a global level. Comparative checks are carried out on per capita consumption and spending levels, growth rates, patterns of category and subcategory breakdowns and distribution of sales by channel. Top-down estimates are reviewed against bottom-up regional and global market and company sales totals.

Where marked differences are seen between proximate country markets or ones at similar developmental levels, supplementary research is conducted in the relevant countries to confirm and/or amend those findings. This process ensures international comparability across the database, that consistent category and subcategory definitions have been used and that all data has been correctly tested. We make sure that possible discrepancies between different published sources have been reconciled and that our interpretation of opinion and expectation from each country’s trade sources has been applied to form a coherent international pattern.

Market analysis

Another integral part of all our research programmes is that all Euromonitor International data is accompanied by clear written analysis. From a research perspective, this explains and substantiates data findings. From a client perspective, this offers unique insights into local consumption trends, routes to market, brand preferences, channel dynamics and future trends.

Our country level analysis also provides invaluable input into the ability of our central industry specialist teams to marry local insights with strategic conclusions on the direction of the market regionally and globally.

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