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Country Report

Retailing in Serbia

Apr 2012

Price: US$1,900

About this Report

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Global crisis slows development of the industry in period 2008-2010

The last months of 2008 brought global economic crisis to Serbia that lasted through 2010. This caused a decrease of constant value sales in both grocery and non-grocery retailing year by year due to fact that Serbian consumers started to save their money by choosing cheaper groceries and giving up purchases of most non-grocery products in the same period. In that period, retailers were not prepared for the crisis and did not respond well to the new conditions.

2011 shows first signs of Serbian retailing recovery

After three difficult years when constant value sales performance of store-based retailing was negative, in 2011 this decrease was marginal as non-grocery sales were positive and the grocery retailing decline was much lower than it had been previously. This is a good illustration of the fact that both retailers and Serbian consumers are slowly adapting to the new circumstances – retailers are decreasing their mark-ups and offering more value-for-money products such as private label, which slowed the increase of informal retailing in the country in 2011 that had been blossoming in 2009 and 2010.

Grocery channel still in consumers’ focus

Even before the economic meltdown, but especially during the crisis, grocery retailing was in Serbian consumers' focus. Unlike non-grocery retailing, grocery retailing is a channel where Serbian consumers spend most of their budgets. According to official data in 2011, 42% of costs of living for the average Serbian family went to foodstuff and drinks, which is a good indicator of how important the grocery retailing channel is for Serbian consumers. In these circumstances, there is not much space for purchasing of new electronic devices, furniture or other non-grocery goods.

Competitive environment still undeveloped

In both store-based and non-store retailing there is plenty of space for new players in the market. Currently grocery retailing is more developed than non-grocery retailing and non-store retailing is still a much undeveloped part of the industry. It is expected that in all three channels, the competitive environment will continue to rise at a fast rate bringing more modern chained players and more players from overseas.

Slow recovery of Serbian retailing expected over the forecast period

In spite the fact that it is not yet clear when economic crisis will finally end, it is expected that the worst time of this economic downturn is behind Serbia. It is expected that Serbian economy will begin with stabilisation over the forecast period which will generate an increase of consumption in retailing channels. Fastest growth is expected in non-store retailing (as the least developed channel), whilst in store-based retailing grocery retailing is expected to rise faster than non-grocery retailing due to fact that the grocery segment suffered more during the crisis.


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Overview

Discover the latest market trends and uncover sources of future market growth for the Retailing industry in Serbia with research from Euromonitor's team of in-country analysts.

Find hidden opportunities in the most current research data available, understand competitive threats with our detailed market analysis, and plan your corporate strategy with our expert qualitative analysis and growth projections.

If you're in the Retailing industry in Serbia, our research will save you time and money while empowering you to make informed, profitable decisions.

When you purchase this report, you also get the data and the content from these category reports in Serbia for free:

The Retailing in Serbia market research report includes:

  • Analysis of key supply-side and demand trends
  • Detailed segmentation of international and local products
  • Historic number of stores, selling space and values, company and brand market shares
  • Five year forecasts of market trends and market growth
  • Robust and transparent market research methodology, conducted in-country

Our market research reports answer questions such as:

  • How big is the grocery/non-grocery/non-store channel in Serbia?
  • Who are the leading retailers in Serbia?
  • How is retailing performing in Serbia?
  • What is the retailing environment like in Serbia?
  • Which channels are winning or losing in the fight for consumers’ money?

Why buy this report?

  • Gain competitive intelligence about market leaders
  • Track key industry trends, opportunities and threats
  • Inform your marketing, brand, strategy and market development, sales and supply functions

This industry report originates from Passport, our Retailing market research database.

Table of Contents

Table of Contents

Retailing in Serbia - Industry Overview

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Global crisis slows development of the industry in period 2008-2010

2011 shows first signs of Serbian retailing recovery

Grocery channel still in consumers’ focus

Competitive environment still undeveloped

Slow recovery of Serbian retailing expected over the forecast period

KEY TRENDS AND DEVELOPMENTS

Crisis slows development of Serbian retailing industry

Government limits mark-ups for essential foodstuff at 10%

Foreign direct investment in decrease

Demographic changes– Serbian consumers are getting old

MARKET INDICATORS

  • Table 1 Employment in Retailing 2006-2011

MARKET DATA

  • Table 2 Sales in Retailing by Category: Value 2006-2011
  • Table 3 Sales in Retailing by Category: % Value Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 4 Sales in Retailing by Grocery vs Non-Grocery 2006-2011
  • Table 5 Sales in Store-Based Retailing by Category: Value 2006-2011
  • Table 6 Sales in Store-Based Retailing by Category: % Value Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 7 Retailing Company Shares: % Value 2007-2011
  • Table 8 Retailing Brand Shares: % Value 2008-2011
  • Table 9 Forecast Sales in Retailing by Category: Value 2011-2016
  • Table 10 Forecast Sales in Retailing by Category: % Value Growth 2011-2016
  • Table 11 Forecast Sales in Store-Based Retailing by Category: Value 2011-2016
  • Table 12 Forecast Sales in Store-Based Retailing by Category: % Value Growth 2011-2016

APPENDIX

Operating environment

Cash and carry

  • Table 13 Cash and Carry: Sales Value 2006-2011
  • Table 14 Cash and Carry: Sales by National Brand Owner: Sales Value 2008-2011
  • Table 15 Cash and Carry: Number of Outlets by National Brand Owner: 2008-2011

DEFINITIONS

SOURCES

  • Summary 1 Research Sources

Retailing in Serbia - Company Profiles

Delta Maxi doo in Retailing (Serbia)

STRATEGIC DIRECTION

KEY FACTS

INTERNET STRATEGY

COMPANY BACKGROUND

PRIVATE LABEL

  • Summary 4 Delta Maxi doo: Private Label Portfolio

COMPETITIVE POSITIONING

  • Summary 5 Delta Maxi doo: Competitive Position 2011

DM Drogeriemarkt doo in Retailing (Serbia)

STRATEGIC DIRECTION

KEY FACTS

INTERNET STRATEGY

COMPANY BACKGROUND

PRIVATE LABEL

  • Summary 8 DM Drogeriemarkt doo: Private Label Portfolio

COMPETITIVE POSITIONING

  • Summary 9 DM Drogeriemarkt doo: Competitive Position 2011

Forma Ideale doo in Retailing (Serbia)

STRATEGIC DIRECTION

KEY FACTS

INTERNET STRATEGY

COMPANY BACKGROUND

PRIVATE LABEL

  • Summary 12 Forma Ideale doo: Private Label Portfolio

COMPETITIVE POSITIONING

  • Summary 13 Forma Ideale doo: Competitive Position 2011

Idea doo in Retailing (Serbia)

STRATEGIC DIRECTION

KEY FACTS

INTERNET STRATEGY

COMPANY BACKGROUND

PRIVATE LABEL

  • Summary 16 Idea doo: Private Label Portfolio

COMPETITIVE POSITIONING

  • Summary 17 Idea doo: Competitive Position 2011

Nis ad in Retailing (Serbia)

STRATEGIC DIRECTION

KEY FACTS

INTERNET STRATEGY

COMPANY BACKGROUND

PRIVATE LABEL

COMPETITIVE POSITIONING

  • Summary 20 Nis ad: Competitive Position 2011

Grocery Retailers in Serbia - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • Grocery retailers posted a current value sales increase of 8% in 2011 to arrive at RSD533.4billion. Yet, the constant value sales growth was negative by 2%. This data is a good illustration of the fact that economic crisis is still present in 2011 just as in the previous three years. People recognise groceries (above all foodstuff and drinks) as products where they can save the money by giving up from some product categories or by shifting to cheaper brands inside product categories.

TRADITIONAL VS MODERN

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

  • The grocery retailer in Serbia is Delta Maxi, which held a 19% value share in 2011. Delta Maxi leads in convenience stores (with a 53% value share) and supermarkets (with a 60% value share) and ranks second in hypermarkets (30% value share). It has a monopoly share in discounters, as there are no other players in the category. Delta Maxi is a domestic retail chain that was purchased by the Belgian Delhaize Group in 2010.

PROSPECTS

  • It is expected that the previously fast rate of supermarkets/hypermarkets expansion will remain strong, but visibly slower between 2011 and 2016 in Serbia than it was over the review period. It is possible that some of international retailers will come to the Serbian market and open a notable number of outlets in the first year or two of the forecast period, but such a huge expansion that was present in the previous decade is not expected to repeat. Also, domination of domestic and regional players is not expected to be that strong as players from Western Europe are interested in coming to Serbia by purchasing domestic retailers or by opening completely new outlets.

CHANNEL FORMATS

  • Chart 1 Modern Grocery Retailers: Idea in Sremska Kamenica
  • Chart 2 Modern Grocery Retailers: Mercator in Novi Sad

CHANNEL DATA

  • Table 16 Sales in Grocery Retailers by Category: Value 2006-2011
  • Table 17 Sales in Grocery Retailers by Category: % Value Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 18 Grocery Retailers Company Shares: % Value 2007-2011
  • Table 19 Grocery Retailers Brand Shares: % Value 2008-2011
  • Table 20 Forecast Sales in Grocery Retailers by Category: Value 2011-2016
  • Table 21 Forecast Sales in Grocery Retailers by Category: % Value Growth 2011-2016

Non-Grocery Retailers in Serbia - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • The Serbian non-grocery segment suffered visibly over the period 2009-2010 due to fact that economic crisis forced Serbian consumers to stop purchasing new furniture, electronic goods, even some clothes, footwear and other essential non-grocery goods. The year 2011 saw an improvement as the Serbian economy slowly showed signs of stability, which left more space for spending money on non-grocery goods. Current value sales of non-grocery retailers rose by 12% in 2011 after two years of decline.

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

  • State-owned chemists/pharmacists chain Apotekarska Ustanova was the leading non-grocery retailer in 2011, with 7% of value sales. It has 502 outlets located all around the country. Apotekarska Ustanova is a synonym for “pharmacy” amongst most Serbian consumers, especially amongst older ones that are loyal to the stores that are controlled by the government. In spite of the fact that there are many chained chemists/pharmacists in Serbian cities, Apotekarska Ustanova’s share is not jeopardised.

PROSPECTS

  • Non-grocery retailing is expected to continue seeing slow constant value growth at a CAGR of 3% over the forecast period. The biggest two factors that will impact development of the channel are an increasingly competitive environment and speed of recovery of the Serbian economy.

CHANNEL FORMATS

  • Chart 3 Non-Grocery Retailers: Gorenje Studio in Novi Sad
  • Chart 4 Non-Grocery Retailers: JYSK in Novi Sad

CHANNEL DATA

  • Table 22 Sales in Non-Grocery Retailers by Category: Value 2006-2011
  • Table 23 Sales in Non-Grocery Retailers by Category: % Value Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 24 Non-Grocery Retailers Company Shares: % Value 2007-2011
  • Table 25 Non-Grocery Retailers Brand Shares: % Value 2008-2011
  • Table 26 Forecast Sales in Non-Grocery Retailers by Category: Value 2011-2016
  • Table 27 Forecast Sales in Non-Grocery Retailers by Category: % Value Growth 2011-2016

Non-Store Retailing in Serbia - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • As the least developed retail channel in Serbia, non-store retailing has the fastest value sales growth, even in years when economic crisis is present in country. Current value growth for non-store retailing was up by 20% in 2011. Retailers that operate in this channel are aware that their good positions at the moment when this channel is in development can lead them to good positions in the future when the competitive environment intensifies. That is why many of them invested in their businesses even in difficult 2010 and 2011.

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

  • Two direct sellers of cosmetics, Oriflame Kozmetika and Avon Cosmetics led in Serbian non-store retailing with value shares of 13% and 12%, respectively in 2011. They came to Serbia 10 years ago when formal non-store retailing did not exist. During the 2000s until now, they have become synonyms for direct selling in the country due to the good quality of cosmetics they offer for very competitive prices.

PROSPECTS

  • Non-store retailing industry is expected to continue to develop at a fast rate predominantly due to expected expansion of internet retailing, but other channels are also expected to record healthy growth. Non-store retailing is expected to record a two-digit constant value CAGR (11%) over the 2011-2016 forecast period, which will almost double consumption per capita in this retailing segment in the same period.

CHANNEL DATA

  • Table 28 Sales in Non-Store Retailing by Category: Value 2006-2011
  • Table 29 Sales in Non-Store Retailing by Category: % Value Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 30 Non-Store Retailing Company Shares: % Value 2007-2011
  • Table 31 Non-Store Retailing Brand Shares: % Value 2008-2011
  • Table 32 Forecast Sales in Non-Store Retailing by Category: Value 2011-2016
  • Table 33 Forecast Sales in Non-Store Retailing by Category: % Value Growth 2011-2016

Segmentation

Segmentation

This market research report includes the following:

  • Retailing
    • Store-based Retailing
      • Grocery Retailers
        • Modern Grocery Retailers
          • Convenience Stores
          • Discounters
          • Forecourt Retailers
            • Chained Forecourt Retailers
            • Independent Forecourt Retailers
          • Hypermarkets
          • Supermarkets
        • Traditional Grocery Retailers
          • Food/Drink/Tobacco Specialists
          • Independent Small Grocers
          • Other Grocery Retailers
      • Non-Grocery Retailers
        • Apparel Specialist Retailers
        • Electronics and Appliance Specialist Retailers
        • Health and Beauty Specialist Retailers
          • Beauty Specialist Retailers
          • Chemists/Pharmacies
          • Parapharmacies/Drugstores
          • Other Healthcare Specialist Retailers
        • Home and Garden Specialist Retailers
          • DIY, Home Improvement and Garden Centres
          • Furniture and Furnishings Stores
        • Leisure and Personal Goods Specialist Retailers
          • Jewellers
          • Media Products Stores
          • Pet Shops and Superstores
          • Sports Goods Stores
          • Stationers/Office Supply Stores
          • Traditional Toys and Games Stores
          • Other Leisure and Personal Goods Specialist Retailers
        • Mixed Retailers
          • Department Stores
          • Mass Merchandisers
          • Variety Stores
          • Warehouse Clubs
        • Other Non-Grocery Retailers
    • Non-Store Retailing
      • Direct Selling
        • Beauty and Personal Care Direct Selling
        • Apparel Direct Selling
        • Consumer Electronics and Video Games Hardware Direct Selling
        • Consumer Healthcare Direct Selling
        • DIY and Gardening Direct Selling
        • Consumer Appliances Direct Selling
        • Home Care Direct Selling
        • Housewares and Home Furnishings Direct Selling
        • Media Products Direct Selling
        • Food and Drink Direct Selling
        • Toys and Games Direct Selling
        • Other Direct Selling
      • Homeshopping
        • Beauty and Personal Care Homeshopping
        • Apparel Homeshopping
        • Consumer Electronics and Video Games Hardware Homeshopping
        • Consumer Healthcare Homeshopping
        • DIY and Gardening Homeshopping
        • Consumer Appliances Homeshopping
        • Home Care Homeshopping
        • Housewares and Home Furnishings Homeshopping
        • Media Products Homeshopping
        • Food and Drink Homeshopping
        • Toys and Games Homeshopping
        • Other Homeshopping
      • Internet Retailing
        • Beauty and Personal Care Internet Retailing
        • Apparel Internet Retailing
        • Consumer Electronics and Video Games Hardware Internet Retailing
        • Consumer Healthcare Internet Retailing
        • DIY and Gardening Internet Retailing
        • Consumer Appliances Internet Retailing
        • Home Care Internet Retailing
        • Housewares and Home Furnishings Internet Retailing
        • Media Products Internet Retailing
        • Food and Drink Internet Retailing
        • Toys and Games Internet Retailing
        • Other Internet Retailing
      • Vending
        • Packaged Drinks Vending
        • Packaged Foods Vending
        • Personal Hygiene Products Vending
        • Tobacco Products Vending
        • Unpackaged Drinks Vending
        • Toys and Games Vending
        • Other Products Vending

Statistics Included

Statistics Included

For each category and subcategory you will receive the following data in Excel format:

From Passport

  • Market sizes
  • Company shares
  • Brand shares
  • Employment
  • Grocery vs non-grocery

Market size details:

  • Retail value retail selling price excl sales tax % growth
  • Retail value retail selling price excl sales tax local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Retail value retail selling price excl sales tax per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Sites/outlets
  • Sites/outlets % growth
  • Sites/outlets per capita
  • Selling space
  • Selling space % growth
  • Selling space per capita
  • Retail value retail selling price incl sales tax % growth
  • Retail value retail selling price incl sales tax local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Retail value retail selling price incl sales tax per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY

Methodology

Methodology

Global insight and local knowledge

With 40 years’ experience of developed and emerging markets, Euromonitor International’s research method is built on a unique combination of specialist industry knowledge and in-country research expertise.

This approach is what enables us to achieve our goal of building a market consensus view of size, shape and trends across the full distribution universe of each category. We factor in whichever channels are relevant, from large-scale grocery to direct sellers, from discount stores to local mom-and-pop outlets.

Industry specialists

Each industry we cover is managed by an Industry Manager and team of Industry Analysts who research and report on their specialist categories all year round.

Our collaborative approach to research means that these industry teams are in constant dialogue with industry players and opinion formers. The planning of our research programmes reflects latest market trends and industry events. In completing each update project, this provides invaluable input to the testing, review and finalisation of our data.

The specialist in-house teams bring together findings from all stages of the annual research process. They work closely with in-country analysts, assess and challenge data and exercise final editorial control over the publication of new data and analysis.

Country and regional analysts

Our in-country analyst network is managed by country and regional analysts in our offices around the world. Working closely with each in-country team, the regional research management team ensures that all country researchers are well schooled in best practices, from the information collected in store checks, to the dialogue we build in trade surveys. Our country analysts ensure that national reports explain the data trends and provide clear insights into the local market’s dynamics.

In-country research network

To deliver fresh insights every year in countries all around the world, we believe the strongest approach is to use analysts on the ground. They bring fluency in local language, physical proximity to the best sources, an ability to engage directly with local industry contacts, and an awareness of how the products and services we study are advertised, sold and consumed. These are essential parts of our ability to report incisively on these markets.

Research Methodology

Our research methods

Each Euromonitor International industry report is based on a core set of research techniques:

Desk research

With industry events, corporate activity, trends and new product introductions tracked year round by our industry team, desk research provides a starting point for the in-country research programme. Our in-country researchers will access the following sources:

  • National statistics offices governmental and official sources
  • National and international trade press
  • National and international trade associations
  • Industry study groups and other semi-official sources
  • Company financials and annual reports
  • Broker reports
  • Online databases
  • The financial, business and mainstream press

Accessing sources is only the first step. The ability to interpret and reconcile often conflicting information across multiple sources is a key aspect of the added value we provide.

Store checks

Store checks are an integral part of our methods for product industries. Carried out on the ground across a relevant mix of channels, the information gained provides first-hand insights into the products we are researching, specifically:

  • Place: We track products in all relevant channels, selective and mass, store and non-store
  • Product: What are innovations in products, pack sizes and formats?
  • Price: What are brand price variations across channels, how do private label’s prices compare to those of branded goods?
  • Promotion: What are marketing and merchandising trends, offers, discounts and tie-ins?

Findings are cross-referenced with brand share data analysis. The results, combined with the findings of desk research, provide a strong basis for identifying key areas of questioning to take forward into our trade survey.

Trade survey

Interaction with global players at corporate HQ and regional levels is complemented by unique local data and insights from our in-country trade surveys around the world. Through the high profile of the Euromonitor International brand, we are able to talk directly to a wide range of sources and therefore inform our analysis with the knowledge and opinions of the leading operators in the market.

Trade surveys allow us to:

  • Fill gaps in available published data per company
  • Generate a consensus view of the size, structure and strategic direction of the category
  • Access year-in-progress data where published sources are out of date
  • Evaluate the experts’ views on current trends and market developments

In building our composite industry view, we engage with a variety of personnel in key players at all points of the supply chain: materials suppliers, manufacturers, distributors, retailers and service operators. We also interview desk research sources: industry associations; study groups; and third party observers from the trade and financial press.

Our objective is to engage in conversation with trade sources in which we exchange ideas and views on the industry, sharing our work-in-progress findings on supply/demand dynamics and potential. This dialogue enhances both parties’ understanding of the local market. The scope and reach of our trade survey also serves to eliminate bias (intentional and unintentional) from any single source.

Company analysis

At a global level, our company research combines our mix of industry interaction and use of secondary sources such as annual accounts, broker reports, financial press and databases. From a data perspective, the aim is to build “top-down” estimates of major players’ total global and regional sales.

At a country level, in line with local reporting requirements, we access annual accounts, national-specific company databases and local company websites. These are all invaluable sources as we build a view of each domestic player’s size and position within very specific categories of the industry.

Forecasts

Data projections and future performance analysis are key elements of Euromonitor International’s market intelligence. Working with historic trends of 15 years or more, a key aspect of our trade survey is to engage industry insider views of the next five years. Will volumes maintain their historic trend? Will price increases or falls of recent years continue, accelerate or slow down? Will increasing demand for one product cannibalise sales of another?

Forecasts represent many of the essential conclusions we have reached about the current state of the market, how it works and how it behaves under different macro and micro conditions. Our written analysis will state the assumptions and the trade opinion behind whether our predictions are optimistic or pessimistic, so that clients can use our statistical forecasts with confidence.

Data validation

All data is subjected to an exhaustive review process, at country, regional and global levels.

The interpretation and review of sources and data inputs forms a central part of the collaboration between industry teams and country researchers. Numbers are delivered to regional and global offices with an audit trail of sources and calculations to allow for a thorough evaluation of data sense and integrity.

Upon completion of the country review phase, data is then reviewed on a comparative basis at regional and then at a global level. Comparative checks are carried out on per capita consumption and spending levels, growth rates, patterns of category and subcategory breakdowns and distribution of sales by channel. Top-down estimates are reviewed against bottom-up regional and global market and company sales totals.

Where marked differences are seen between proximate country markets or ones at similar developmental levels, supplementary research is conducted in the relevant countries to confirm and/or amend those findings. This process ensures international comparability across the database, that consistent category and subcategory definitions have been used and that all data has been correctly tested. We make sure that possible discrepancies between different published sources have been reconciled and that our interpretation of opinion and expectation from each country’s trade sources has been applied to form a coherent international pattern.

Market analysis

Another integral part of all our research programmes is that all Euromonitor International data is accompanied by clear written analysis. From a research perspective, this explains and substantiates data findings. From a client perspective, this offers unique insights into local consumption trends, routes to market, brand preferences, channel dynamics and future trends.

Our country level analysis also provides invaluable input into the ability of our central industry specialist teams to marry local insights with strategic conclusions on the direction of the market regionally and globally.

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