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Country Report

Tobacco in Algeria

Nov 2012

Price: US$1,900

About this Report

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Larger smoking population leads to positive growth

A larger smoking population, particularly among females and young people, allowed tobacco sales to grow. The lack of enforcement of smoking bans and in points-of-sale facilitates tobacco sales, and the presence of brands in all price platforms allowed continuous improvement in tobacco’s performance.

Additional tax rise has minor impact on sales

In January 2012, tax authorities added another tax of DZD2 per pack to provide a fund for cancer research. Despite the fact that it was the second consecutive year with a tax rise, higher unit prices only increased value growth and did not hinder volume performance. While some manufacturers were able to absorb the price rise, a general unit price increase was too minor to impact on price bands or affect smoking population buying preferences.

State-owned SNTA continues to dominate tobacco sales

Société Nationale des Tabacs et Allumettes continues to generate the majority of tobacco volume sales. The company is leader in high tar cigarettes and, despite its absence from mid and low tar cigarettes, because of which it is losing ground, it continues to enjoy a unique presence in other tobacco categories where the only competition comes from the illegal market.

Major sales generated through newsagent-tobacconists/kiosks

The biggest tobacco distribution channel remains newsagent-tobacconists/kiosks. These points-of-sale offer a large choice of tobacco products but also contraband products which continue to generate significant sales. This channel also offers other products than tobacco and is a daily stop-by for consumers.

Tobacco expected to continue to record positive growth since no strong legislation is applied

Tobacco sales are expected to continue to witness positive growth over the forecast period. The lack of authorities’ control over points-of-sale, profit margins and respect of smoking bans are threats that the country is not expected to face over the forecast period. Moreover, a higher smoking population, composed mainly of women and teenagers, and affordable tobacco prices are expected to contribute to the positive growth.


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Overview

Discover the latest market trends and uncover sources of future market growth for the Tobacco industry in Algeria with research from Euromonitor's team of in-country analysts.

Find hidden opportunities in the most current research data available, understand competitive threats with our detailed market analysis, and plan your corporate strategy with our expert qualitative analysis and growth projections.

If you're in the Tobacco industry in Algeria, our research will save you time and money while empowering you to make informed, profitable decisions.

When you purchase this report, you also get the data and the content from these category reports in Algeria for free:

The Tobacco in Algeria market research report includes:

  • Analysis of key supply-side and demand trends
  • Detailed segmentation of international and local products
  • Historic volumes and values, company and brand market shares
  • Five year forecasts of market trends and market growth
  • Production, imports by origin, exports by destination
  • Robust and transparent market research methodology, conducted in-country

Our market research reports answer questions such as:

  • What is the market size of Tobacco in Algeria?
  • What are the major brands in Algeria?
  • Which sector of the tobacco products market is the largest by value sales in Algeria?
  • Which sector of the tobacco products market has been growing the fastest, by volume and value, in Algeria?
  • Which sector is the most heavily taxed in Algeria?
  • Which companies dominate in the total tobacco market in Algeria in terms of market share?
  • What is the distribution channel split for the tobacco products market in Algeria?

Why buy this report?

  • Gain competitive intelligence about market leaders
  • Track key industry trends, opportunities and threats
  • Inform your marketing, brand, strategy and market development, sales and supply functions

This industry report originates from Passport, our Tobacco market research database.

Table of Contents

Table of Contents

Tobacco in Algeria - Industry Overview

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Larger smoking population leads to positive growth

Additional tax rise has minor impact on sales

State-owned SNTA continues to dominate tobacco sales

Major sales generated through newsagent-tobacconists/kiosks

Tobacco expected to continue to record positive growth since no strong legislation is applied

OPERATING ENVIRONMENT

Legislation

  • Summary 1 Legislation Summary at a Glance

Country-specific legislation:

Smoking prevalence

  • Table 1 Smoking Prevalence in Adult Population 2006-2011
  • Table 2 Number of Smokers by Gender 2006-2011

Tar levels

Health warnings

Advertising and sponsorship

Point-of-sale display bans

Smoking in public places

Low ignition propensity (LIP) regulation

‘Reduced harm’

Electronic cigarettes

Litigation

Death by cause

  • Table 3 Death by Cause 2007-2011

TAXATION AND PRICING

Duty paid packet marks

Taxation rates

  • Table 4 Taxation and Duty Levies 2006-2011

Average cigarette pack price breakdown

  • Table 5 Average Cigarette Pack Price Breakdown: Brand Examples

PRODUCTION/IMPORTS/EXPORTS

Illicit trade in cigarettes

MARKET INDICATORS

  • Table 6 Illicit Trade Estimate of Cigarettes by Volume 2006-2011

MARKET DATA

  • Table 7 Sales of Tobacco by Category: Volume 2006-2011
  • Table 8 Sales of Tobacco by Category: Value 2006-2011
  • Table 9 Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 10 Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 11 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: Volume 2011-2016
  • Table 12 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: Value 2011-2016
  • Table 13 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2011-2016
  • Table 14 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2011-2016

DEFINITIONS

SOURCES

  • Summary 2 Research Sources

Tobacco in Algeria - Company Profiles

SIFACO Algérie SPA in Tobacco (Algeria)

STRATEGIC DIRECTION

KEY FACTS

COMPANY BACKGROUND

PRODUCTION

COMPETITIVE POSITIONING

  • Summary 4 SIFACO Algérie SPA: Competitive Position 2011

Société des Tabacs Algéro-Emirati SPA (STAEM) in Tobacco (Algeria)

STRATEGIC DIRECTION

KEY FACTS

COMPANY BACKGROUND

PRODUCTION

COMPETITIVE POSITIONING

  • Summary 6 Société des Tabacs Algéro-Emirati SPA: Competitive Position 2011

Société Nationale des Tabacs et Allumettes (SNTA) in Tobacco (Algeria)

STRATEGIC DIRECTION

KEY FACTS

COMPANY BACKGROUND

PRODUCTION

COMPETITIVE POSITIONING

  • Summary 8 Société Nationale des Tabacs et Allumettes: Competitive Position 2011

Cigarettes in Algeria - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • In 2011, cigarettes witnessed 5% volume growth and a solid 9% value increase. The rise in taxation on tobacco products did not slow down the category’s performance as the increase of DZD2 per pack to contribute to cancer research was too small. Besides, parallel trade remains high and consumers find cigarettes at all prices, including sales of individual sticks.

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

  • The tobacco industry in Algeria used to be a monopoly by the state-owned company Société Nationale des Tabacs et Allumettes (SNTA) until 2001 when the market was opened to private companies. In 2002, Société des Tabacs Algéro-Emirati or STAEM, a joint-venture between the SNTA, private Emirati investors and a private Algerian company, Sofinance, started importing several international brands, such as Marlboro and Gauloises. Then, 2004 saw the entrance of British American Tobacco manufacturing in Algeria. In 2009, STAEM stopped importing and started manufacturing international cigarette brands under licence.

NEW PRODUCT DEVELOPMENTS

  • Summary 9 Cigarettes - New Product Launches

DISTRIBUTION

PROSPECTS

  • Cigarettes is expected to post a healthy CAGR of 4% in volume terms over the 2011-2016 period. The smoking population is expected to continue growing over the forecast period, with rising numbers of female and young smokers. The mid and low tar categories are expected to contribute to the growth while high tar cigarettes are likely to stabilise as the male smoking population, the main buyers of high tar cigarettes, is expected to stabilise.

CATEGORY BACKGROUND

Cigarettes: price bands

  • Summary 10 Cigarette Price Band Definitions

Cigarettes: menthol/standard

Flavour threads and capsule filters:

Cigarettes: filter/non-filter

Cigarettes: carbon/standard filter

Cigarettes: filter length

Cigarettes: regular vs slims vs superslims

Cigarettes: pack size

Cigarettes: pack type

CATEGORY DATA

  • Table 15 Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: Volume 2006-2011
  • Table 16 Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: Value 2006-2011
  • Table 17 Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: % Volume Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 18 Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: % Value Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 19 Sales of Cigarettes by Price Band: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 20 Sales of Cigarettes by Standard/Menthol: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 21 Sales of Cigarettes by Tobacco Type: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 22 Sales of Cigarettes by Filter Vs Non-filter: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 23 Sales of Filter Cigarettes by Carbon Vs Non-carbon: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 24 Sales of Cigarettes by Length: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 25 Sales of Cigarettes by Regular/Slim/Superslim: % Volume Breakdown 2007-2011
  • Table 26 Sales of Cigarettes by Pack Size: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 27 Sales of Cigarettes by Pack Type: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 28 Cigarettes Company Shares 2007-2011
  • Table 29 Cigarettes Brand Shares 2008-2011
  • Table 30 Sales of Cigarettes by Distribution Format: % Analysis 2006-2011
  • Table 31 Cigarettes: Production, Imports and Exports: Total Volume 2006-2011
  • Table 32 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: Volume 2011-2016
  • Table 33 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: Value 2011-2016
  • Table 34 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: % Volume Growth 2011-2016
  • Table 35 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: % Value Growth 2011-2016
  • Table 36 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Price Band: % Volume Breakdown 2011-2016
  • Table 37 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Standard/Menthol: % Volume Breakdown 2011-2016
  • Table 38 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tobacco Type: % Volume Breakdown 2011-2016
  • Table 39 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Filter Vs Non-filter: % Volume Breakdown 2011-2016
  • Table 40 Forecast Sales of Filter Cigarettes by Carbon Vs Non-carbon: % Volume Breakdown 2011-2016
  • Table 41 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Length: % Volume Breakdown 2011-2016
  • Table 42 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Regular/Slim/Superslim: % Volume Breakdown 2011-2016
  • Table 43 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Pack Size: % Volume Breakdown 2011-2016
  • Table 44 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Pack Type: % Volume Breakdown 2011-2016

Cigars in Algeria - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • Cigars and cigarillos smoking is not a widespread habit in Algeria. Smokers prefer cigarettes and smoking tobacco. The presence of cigars is limited to the domestic production of two brands, Targui and Rummel, by the public company SNTA, whose production has been declining over the review period. The few consumers who enjoy cigars buy them abroad and choose good quality cigars, as domestic production is of low standards.

HANDMADE VERSUS MACHINE-MANUFACTURED SPLITS

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

  • Société Nationale des Tabacs et Allumettes (SNTA) was the only company present in cigars and generated 100% of volume sales. The state-owned company manufactured the only two legal brands in the country, however, several other brands can be found in tobacco specialists, imported and sold illegally. The company does not have the monopoly on production, but other tobacco manufacturers rather sell cigarettes and smoking tobacco, which are more in demand among Algerian consumers.

NEW PRODUCT DEVELOPMENTS

DISTRIBUTION

PROSPECTS

  • Cigars is expected to see a -5% CAGR in both volume and value terms over the forecast period. Because the only two legal brands, Targui and Rummel, are expected to continue generating sales, the decline in production by SNTA will negatively impact the performance of the category as a whole. Moreover, there are no new product developments expected over the next five years which would increase sales.

CATEGORY DATA

  • Table 45 Sales of Cigars by Category: Volume 2006-2011
  • Table 46 Sales of Cigars by Category: Value 2006-2011
  • Table 47 Sales of Cigars by Category: % Volume Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 48 Sales of Cigars by Category: % Value Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 49 Sales of Cigars by Handmade vs Machine-manufactured: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 50 Sales of Cigars by Handmade vs Machine-manufactured: % Value Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 51 Company Shares of Cigars Excluding Cigarillos 2007-2011
  • Table 52 Brand Shares of Cigars Excluding Cigarillos 2008-2011
  • Table 53 Sales of Cigars by Distribution Format: % Analysis 2006-2011
  • Table 54 Forecast Sales of Cigars by Category: Volume 2011-2016
  • Table 55 Forecast Sales of Cigars by Category: Value 2011-2016
  • Table 56 Forecast Sales of Cigars by Category: % Volume Growth 2011-2016
  • Table 57 Forecast Sales of Cigars by Category: % Value Growth 2011-2016

Smokeless Tobacco in Algeria - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • Smokeless tobacco is a traditional tobacco product in Algeria. However, its usage has been rapidly declining and consumers now prefer cigarettes. Its usage is nowadays limited to lower-income earners and appreciated mainly in rural areas. Locally, “chemma” is the term given to moist snuff and “neffa” is dry snuff. Chemma is put directly on gums or placed in paper, whilst dry snuff is ingested through the nose. The latter is also consumed by older ladies in rural areas but the habit has now almost completely disappeared. Loose US-style moist snuff is the most prevalent category of smokeless tobacco and is available within both legal and illicit channels. Its consumption fluctuated over the review period as some low-income cigarette smokers sometimes switched to moist snuff when they could not afford cigarettes.

DISTRIBUTION

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

  • The only domestic manufacturer of smokeless tobacco in Algeria is Société Nationale des Tabacs et Allumettes (SNTA), which generated 87% of volume sales in 2011. The state-owned company is present with two brands, Makla El Hilal and Nedjema. The second company present in the category is Sifaco Algérie, which since 2006 has imported the moist snuff brands, Makla Bouhlal Bentchikou and Makla Ifriquia, and the dry snuff brand, Naffa Africaine, and generated a 12% volume share in 2011.

NEW PRODUCT DEVELOPMENTS

PROSPECTS

  • Smokeless tobacco is expected to record a 4% CAGR in volume terms over the forecast period. Volume sales will continue to be generated by low income earners, particularly in rural areas. Positive growth will be the result of an expected decrease in contraband and illicit trade. With the category set to be moving towards legal sales, the key manufacturer and importer should increase their volumes.

CATEGORY DATA

  • Table 58 Sales of Smokeless Tobacco by Category: Volume 2006-2011
  • Table 59 Sales of Smokeless Tobacco by Category: Value 2006-2011
  • Table 60 Sales of Smokeless Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 61 Sales of Smokeless Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 62 Company Shares of Smokeless Tobacco 2007-2011
  • Table 63 Brand Shares of Smokeless Tobacco 2008-2011
  • Table 64 Sales of Smokless Tobacco by Distribution Format: % Analysis 2006-2011
  • Table 65 Forecast Sales of Smokeless Tobacco by Category: Volume 2011-2016
  • Table 66 Forecast Sales of Smokeless Tobacco by Category: Value 2011-2016
  • Table 67 Forecast Sales of Smokeless Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2011-2016
  • Table 68 Forecast Sales of Smokeless Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2011-2016

Smoking Tobacco in Algeria - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • Water pipe, shisha or renguila, is not a traditional product in Algeria, but has been imported from the Middle East and has been considered a trendy habit for the last few years. Several cafés and tea rooms opened to offer pipe smoking and target the young urban population. Pipes used to be smoked by the older male population but the habit has been disappearing. RYO products are difficult to find and available only through illegal sales. The affordable price of cigarettes does not push consumers to search for cheaper alternatives.

THE ROLE AND EFFECT OF CANNABIS/MARIJUANA

DISTRIBUTION

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

  • The state-owned company, Société Nationale des Tabacs et Allumettes (SNTA), is the only player present with a legal brand of smoking tobacco in Algeria. It is not because of exclusive distribution rights but rather because no other company manufactures smoking tobacco in the country, and other brands are imported through contraband only.

NEW PRODUCT DEVELOPMENTS

PROSPECTS

  • Smoking tobacco is expected to register a 4% CAGR in volume terms over the forecast period. The growth rate will result from a steady production by SNTA with its one brand, Safina, and positive growth is expected because of the expected decline in contraband in favour of Safina.

CATEGORY DATA

  • Table 69 Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: Volume 2006-2011
  • Table 70 Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: Value 2006-2011
  • Table 71 Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 72 Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 73 Company Shares of Pipe Tobacco 2007-2011
  • Table 74 Brand Shares of Pipe Tobacco 2008-2011
  • Table 75 Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Distribution Format: % Analysis 2006-2011
  • Table 76 Forecast Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: Volume 2011-2016
  • Table 77 Forecast Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: Value 2011-2016
  • Table 78 Forecast Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2011-2016
  • Table 79 Forecast Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2011-2016

Segmentation

Segmentation

This market research report includes the following:

  • Tobacco
    • Cigarettes
      • High Tar Cigarettes
      • Mid Tar Cigarettes
      • Low Tar Cigarettes
      • Ultra Low Tar Cigarettes
    • Cigars
      • Cigars Excluding Cigarillos
        • Large Cigars
        • Standard Cigars
        • Small Cigars
      • Cigarillos
    • Smoking Tobacco
      • RYO Tobacco
      • Pipe Tobacco
    • Smokeless Tobacco
      • Chewing Tobacco
        • Asian-Style Chewing Tobacco
        • US-Style Chewing Tobacco
        • Other Chewing Tobacco
      • Snuff
        • Moist Snuff
          • US-Style Moist Snuff ('Dip')
            • Loose US-Style Moist Snuff
            • Portion US-Style Moist Snuff
          • Swedish-Style Snus
            • Loose Swedish-Style Snus
            • Portion Swedish-Style Snus
          • Asian Style Creamy Snuff
        • Dry Snuff
        • Hard Snuff
    • Cigarettes Including RYO Stick Equivalent
      • High Tar Cigarettes
      • Mid Tar Cigarettes
      • Low Tar Cigarettes
      • Ultra Low Tar Cigarettes
      • RYO Cigarettes

Statistics Included

Statistics Included

For each category and subcategory you will receive the following data in Excel format:

From Passport

  • Market sizes
  • Company shares
  • Brand shares
  • Distribution
  • Analysis by type
  • Cigarettes by blend
  • Cigarettes by carbon filter/non-carbon filter
  • Cigarettes by filtered/unfiltered
  • Cigarettes by length
  • Cigarettes by pack size
  • Cigarettes by pack type
  • Cigarettes by price band
  • Cigarettes by regular/slim/superslim
  • Cigarettes by standard/menthol
  • Illicit trade penetration
  • Pricing
  • Products by ingredient
  • Products by ingredient
  • Smoking population - number of adult smokers
  • Smoking prevalence - % of adult population
  • Taxation
  • Trade statistics - volume

Market size details:

  • Retail volume
  • Retail volume % growth
  • Retail volume per capita
  • Retail value retail selling price % growth
  • Retail value retail selling price local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Retail value retail selling price per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Illicit trade volume
  • Illicit trade volume % growth
  • Illicit trade volume per capita
  • Retail volume (sticks)
  • Retail volume (sticks) % growth
  • Retail volume (sticks) per capita
  • Retail plus illicit trade
  • Retail plus illicit trade % growth
  • Retail plus illicit trade per capita

Methodology

Methodology

Global insight and local knowledge

With 40 years’ experience of developed and emerging markets, Euromonitor International’s research method is built on a unique combination of specialist industry knowledge and in-country research expertise.

This approach is what enables us to achieve our goal of building a market consensus view of size, shape and trends across the full distribution universe of each category. We factor in whichever channels are relevant, from large-scale grocery to direct sellers, from discount stores to local mom-and-pop outlets.

Industry specialists

Each industry we cover is managed by an Industry Manager and team of Industry Analysts who research and report on their specialist categories all year round.

Our collaborative approach to research means that these industry teams are in constant dialogue with industry players and opinion formers. The planning of our research programmes reflects latest market trends and industry events. In completing each update project, this provides invaluable input to the testing, review and finalisation of our data.

The specialist in-house teams bring together findings from all stages of the annual research process. They work closely with in-country analysts, assess and challenge data and exercise final editorial control over the publication of new data and analysis.

Country and regional analysts

Our in-country analyst network is managed by country and regional analysts in our offices around the world. Working closely with each in-country team, the regional research management team ensures that all country researchers are well schooled in best practices, from the information collected in store checks, to the dialogue we build in trade surveys. Our country analysts ensure that national reports explain the data trends and provide clear insights into the local market’s dynamics.

In-country research network

To deliver fresh insights every year in countries all around the world, we believe the strongest approach is to use analysts on the ground. They bring fluency in local language, physical proximity to the best sources, an ability to engage directly with local industry contacts, and an awareness of how the products and services we study are advertised, sold and consumed. These are essential parts of our ability to report incisively on these markets.

Research Methodology

Our research methods

Each Euromonitor International industry report is based on a core set of research techniques:

Desk research

With industry events, corporate activity, trends and new product introductions tracked year round by our industry team, desk research provides a starting point for the in-country research programme. Our in-country researchers will access the following sources:

  • National statistics offices governmental and official sources
  • National and international trade press
  • National and international trade associations
  • Industry study groups and other semi-official sources
  • Company financials and annual reports
  • Broker reports
  • Online databases
  • The financial, business and mainstream press

Accessing sources is only the first step. The ability to interpret and reconcile often conflicting information across multiple sources is a key aspect of the added value we provide.

Store checks

Store checks are an integral part of our methods for product industries. Carried out on the ground across a relevant mix of channels, the information gained provides first-hand insights into the products we are researching, specifically:

  • Place: We track products in all relevant channels, selective and mass, store and non-store
  • Product: What are innovations in products, pack sizes and formats?
  • Price: What are brand price variations across channels, how do private label’s prices compare to those of branded goods?
  • Promotion: What are marketing and merchandising trends, offers, discounts and tie-ins?

Findings are cross-referenced with brand share data analysis. The results, combined with the findings of desk research, provide a strong basis for identifying key areas of questioning to take forward into our trade survey.

Trade survey

Interaction with global players at corporate HQ and regional levels is complemented by unique local data and insights from our in-country trade surveys around the world. Through the high profile of the Euromonitor International brand, we are able to talk directly to a wide range of sources and therefore inform our analysis with the knowledge and opinions of the leading operators in the market.

Trade surveys allow us to:

  • Fill gaps in available published data per company
  • Generate a consensus view of the size, structure and strategic direction of the category
  • Access year-in-progress data where published sources are out of date
  • Evaluate the experts’ views on current trends and market developments

In building our composite industry view, we engage with a variety of personnel in key players at all points of the supply chain: materials suppliers, manufacturers, distributors, retailers and service operators. We also interview desk research sources: industry associations; study groups; and third party observers from the trade and financial press.

Our objective is to engage in conversation with trade sources in which we exchange ideas and views on the industry, sharing our work-in-progress findings on supply/demand dynamics and potential. This dialogue enhances both parties’ understanding of the local market. The scope and reach of our trade survey also serves to eliminate bias (intentional and unintentional) from any single source.

Company analysis

At a global level, our company research combines our mix of industry interaction and use of secondary sources such as annual accounts, broker reports, financial press and databases. From a data perspective, the aim is to build “top-down” estimates of major players’ total global and regional sales.

At a country level, in line with local reporting requirements, we access annual accounts, national-specific company databases and local company websites. These are all invaluable sources as we build a view of each domestic player’s size and position within very specific categories of the industry.

Forecasts

Data projections and future performance analysis are key elements of Euromonitor International’s market intelligence. Working with historic trends of 15 years or more, a key aspect of our trade survey is to engage industry insider views of the next five years. Will volumes maintain their historic trend? Will price increases or falls of recent years continue, accelerate or slow down? Will increasing demand for one product cannibalise sales of another?

Forecasts represent many of the essential conclusions we have reached about the current state of the market, how it works and how it behaves under different macro and micro conditions. Our written analysis will state the assumptions and the trade opinion behind whether our predictions are optimistic or pessimistic, so that clients can use our statistical forecasts with confidence.

Data validation

All data is subjected to an exhaustive review process, at country, regional and global levels.

The interpretation and review of sources and data inputs forms a central part of the collaboration between industry teams and country researchers. Numbers are delivered to regional and global offices with an audit trail of sources and calculations to allow for a thorough evaluation of data sense and integrity.

Upon completion of the country review phase, data is then reviewed on a comparative basis at regional and then at a global level. Comparative checks are carried out on per capita consumption and spending levels, growth rates, patterns of category and subcategory breakdowns and distribution of sales by channel. Top-down estimates are reviewed against bottom-up regional and global market and company sales totals.

Where marked differences are seen between proximate country markets or ones at similar developmental levels, supplementary research is conducted in the relevant countries to confirm and/or amend those findings. This process ensures international comparability across the database, that consistent category and subcategory definitions have been used and that all data has been correctly tested. We make sure that possible discrepancies between different published sources have been reconciled and that our interpretation of opinion and expectation from each country’s trade sources has been applied to form a coherent international pattern.

Market analysis

Another integral part of all our research programmes is that all Euromonitor International data is accompanied by clear written analysis. From a research perspective, this explains and substantiates data findings. From a client perspective, this offers unique insights into local consumption trends, routes to market, brand preferences, channel dynamics and future trends.

Our country level analysis also provides invaluable input into the ability of our central industry specialist teams to marry local insights with strategic conclusions on the direction of the market regionally and globally.

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