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Country Report

Tobacco in Belgium

Oct 2012

Price: US$1,900

About this Report

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Unit price increase contributes to growth in value sales of cigarettes

In 2011, the Belgian cigarette category was affected by a hike in tobacco prices, resulting in a significant decline in volume sales but positive growth for value sales. The decline in volume sales of cigarettes was due to cigarette smokers shifting to smoking tobacco but also the fact that the overall number of smokers is falling in Belgium. Over the review period Belgium witnessed a drop in both the number of smokers and smoking prevalence. That said, many cigarette smokers continued to opt for premium brands despite the entrance of new economy and mid-priced alternatives.

Cigarette smokers continue to shift to RYO tobacco

Whereas over the two previous years, in the aftermath of the economic crisis, the number of Belgians migrating from cigarettes to RYO increased dramatically, in 2011 the trend continued but at a slower pace. Cigarette price increases have contributed to the growth of the smoking tobacco category, although a number of cigarette smokers have chosen not to change their habit despite the fact that smoking tobacco is significantly cheaper than cigarettes. Instead, cigarette smokers have been willing to lower their expenditure by reducing their cigarette consumption.

Multinational companies dominate the Belgian market

In 2011, the competitive landscape in tobacco remained stable compared to the previous year. Domestic producers of cigarettes are long gone and the Belgian tobacco market is highly concentrated and dominated by international companies, including Philip Morris Belgium BVBA, British American Tobacco Belgium SA, Imperial Tobacco Belgium and Japan Tobacco International. In smoking tobacco, however, there is a domestic presence thanks to Gryson NV. The Belgian company was one of the leading RYO tobacco players in 2011. As the category evolves, it is likely that more mergers with multinationals will occur over the forecast period.

The distribution landscape is changing

The way cigarettes are sold in Belgium is changing due to a change in law with regard to the point-of-sale display of tobacco products. Prior to the new law, cigarette packs and smoking tobacco products used to be on display and consumers would simply ask a cashier for the product they wanted. Now, cigarettes and smoking tobacco are not visible to consumers and in some outlets consumers need to give a ticket to the cashier carrying the name of the brand they want, which is then scanned in order for them to purchase the product. In 2011, tobacco specialists saw a slight gain in share. The increase for grocery retailers appears to have come at the expense of vending and non-retail channels. Both grocery retailers and consumers have gained from the fact that Belgian consumers are able to save time by buying cigarettes at the same time as their grocery shopping. As a consequence, although newsagent-tobacconists/kiosks and forecourt retailers are significant distribution channels, their shares are likely to fall in the future.

Volume sales expected to continue to decline

According to industry sources and retailers, sales of tobacco products are expected to continue to decline over the forecast period. Due to regular health warning campaigns and rising unit prices, the number of regular smokers is not expected to increase but remain stable over the forecast period. In addition, as Belgium is among the European countries offering the cheapest prices for tobacco products, legislative measures have been taken in order to level tobacco prices with the European average, which is expected to further limit growth of tobacco products sales in Belgium.


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Overview

Discover the latest market trends and uncover sources of future market growth for the Tobacco industry in Belgium with research from Euromonitor's team of in-country analysts.

Find hidden opportunities in the most current research data available, understand competitive threats with our detailed market analysis, and plan your corporate strategy with our expert qualitative analysis and growth projections.

If you're in the Tobacco industry in Belgium, our research will save you time and money while empowering you to make informed, profitable decisions.

When you purchase this report, you also get the data and the content from these category reports in Belgium for free:

The Tobacco in Belgium market research report includes:

  • Analysis of key supply-side and demand trends
  • Detailed segmentation of international and local products
  • Historic volumes and values, company and brand market shares
  • Five year forecasts of market trends and market growth
  • Production, imports by origin, exports by destination
  • Robust and transparent market research methodology, conducted in-country

Our market research reports answer questions such as:

  • What is the market size of Tobacco in Belgium?
  • What are the major brands in Belgium?
  • Which sector of the tobacco products market is the largest by value sales in Belgium?
  • Which sector of the tobacco products market has been growing the fastest, by volume and value, in Belgium?
  • Which sector is the most heavily taxed in Belgium?
  • Which companies dominate in the total tobacco market in Belgium in terms of market share?
  • What is the distribution channel split for the tobacco products market in Belgium?

Why buy this report?

  • Gain competitive intelligence about market leaders
  • Track key industry trends, opportunities and threats
  • Inform your marketing, brand, strategy and market development, sales and supply functions

This industry report originates from Passport, our Tobacco market research database.

Table of Contents

Table of Contents

Tobacco in Belgium - Industry Overview

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Unit price increase contributes to growth in value sales of cigarettes

Cigarette smokers continue to shift to RYO tobacco

Multinational companies dominate the Belgian market

The distribution landscape is changing

Volume sales expected to continue to decline

OPERATING ENVIRONMENT

Legislative overview/ FCTC ratification

  • Summary 1 Legislation Summary at a Glance

Country-specific legislation:

Smoking prevalence

  • Table 1 Smoking Prevalence in Adult Population 2006-2011
  • Table 2 Number of Smokers by Gender 2006-2011

Tar levels

Health warnings

Advertising & sponsorship

Point-of-sale display bans

Smoking in public places

Low ignition propensity (LIP) regulation

‘Reduced harm’

Electronic cigarettes

Litigation

Death by cause

  • Table 3 Death by Cause 2007-2011

TAXATION AND PRICING

Duty paid packet marks

Taxation rates

  • Table 4 Taxation and Duty Levies 2006-2011

Average cigarette pack price breakdown

  • Table 5 Average Cigarette Pack Price Breakdown: Brand Examples

PRODUCTION/IMPORTS/EXPORTS

  • Table 6 Trade Statistics – Cigarettes 2007-2010

Illicit trade in cigarettes

MARKET INDICATORS

  • Table 7 Illicit Trade Estimate of Cigarettes by Volume 2006-2011

MARKET DATA

  • Table 8 Sales of Tobacco by Category: Volume 2006-2011
  • Table 9 Sales of Tobacco by Category: Value 2006-2011
  • Table 10 Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 11 Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 12 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: Volume 2011-2016
  • Table 13 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: Value 2011-2016
  • Table 14 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2011-2016
  • Table 15 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2011-2016

DEFINITIONS

SOURCES

  • Summary 2 Research Sources

Tobacco in Belgium - Company Profiles

British American Tobacco Belgium SA in Tobacco (Belgium)

STRATEGIC DIRECTION

KEY FACTS

COMPANY BACKGROUND

PRODUCTION

COMPETITIVE POSITIONING

  • Summary 4 British American Tobacco Belgium SA: Competitive Position 2011

Imperial Tobacco Belgium in Tobacco (Belgium)

STRATEGIC DIRECTION

KEY FACTS

COMPANY BACKGROUND

PRODUCTION

COMPETITIVE POSITIONING

  • Summary 6 Imperial Tobacco Belgium: Competitive Position 2011

Philip Morris Belgium BVBA in Tobacco (Belgium)

STRATEGIC DIRECTION

KEY FACTS

COMPANY BACKGROUND

PRODUCTION

COMPETITIVE POSITIONING

  • Summary 8 Philip Morris Belgium BVBA: Competitive Position 2011

Cigarettes in Belgium - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • In 2011, sales of cigarettes grew by 1% in current value terms, mainly due to a rise in prices thanks to tax increases. Volume sales, however, continued to decline due to higher unit price per pack but also the fact that some Belgian consumers shifted from cigarettes to RYO tobacco and some reduced their daily consumption of cigarettes in a bid to save money or try to cut down their smoking. In addition, public health campaigns continued to be strong in Belgium.

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

  • The cigarette industry in Belgium is dominated by what the industry professionals call the ‘big four’. These companies are Philip Morris Belgium BVBA, British American Tobacco Belgium SA (BAT), Imperial Tobacco Belgium and JT International Co Netherlands BV (JTI). There is virtually no other competition and the prevalence of Philip Morris’s brand Marlboro is very clear in stores.

NEW PRODUCT DEVELOPMENTS

  • Summary 9 Cigarettes - New Product Launches

DISTRIBUTION

PROSPECTS

  • The cigarette category is expected to suffer a further decline over the forecast period, with volume sales falling by 1% annually. In constant value terms, a CAGR decline of 1% is also anticipated. These declines will be driven by stricter smoking bans, stronger anti-smoking campaigns and growing social intolerance of smoking. Rising cigarette prices due to higher taxes will drive some Belgians to stop smoking altogether, while others will switch to cheaper brands.

CATEGORY BACKGROUND

Cigarettes: Price bands

  • Summary 10 Cigarette Price Band Definitions

Cigarettes: Menthol/standard

Flavour threads and capsule filters:

Cigarettes: Filter/non-filter

Cigarettes: Carbon/standard filter

Cigarettes: Filter length

Cigarettes: Regular vs slims vs superslims

Cigarettes: Pack size

Cigarettes: Pack type

CATEGORY DATA

  • Table 16 Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: Volume 2006-2011
  • Table 17 Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: Value 2006-2011
  • Table 18 Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: % Volume Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 19 Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: % Value Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 20 Sales of Cigarettes by Price Band: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 21 Sales of Cigarettes by Standard/Menthol: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 22 Sales of Cigarettes by Tobacco Type: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 23 Sales of Cigarettes by Filter Vs Non-filter: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 24 Sales of Filter Cigarettes by Carbon Vs Non-carbon: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 25 Sales of Cigarettes by Length: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 26 Sales of Cigarettes by Regular/Slim/Superslim: % Volume Breakdown 2007-2011
  • Table 27 Sales of Cigarettes by Pack Size: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 28 Sales of Cigarettes by Pack Type: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 29 Cigarettes Company Shares 2007-2011
  • Table 30 Cigarettes Brand Shares 2008-2011
  • Table 31 Sales of Cigarettes by Distribution Format: % Analysis 2006-2011
  • Table 32 Cigarettes: Production, Imports and Exports: Total Volume 2006-2011
  • Table 33 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: Volume 2011-2016
  • Table 34 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: Value 2011-2016
  • Table 35 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: % Volume Growth 2011-2016
  • Table 36 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: % Value Growth 2011-2016
  • Table 37 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Price Band: % Volume Breakdown 2011-2016
  • Table 38 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Standard/Menthol: % Volume Breakdown 2011-2016
  • Table 39 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tobacco Type: % Volume Breakdown 2011-2016
  • Table 40 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Filter Vs Non-filter: % Volume Breakdown 2011-2016
  • Table 41 Forecast Sales of Filter Cigarettes by Carbon Vs Non-carbon: % Volume Breakdown 2011-2016
  • Table 42 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Length: % Volume Breakdown 2011-2016
  • Table 43 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Regular/Slim/Superslim: % Volume Breakdown 2011-2016
  • Table 44 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Pack Size: % Volume Breakdown 2011-2016
  • Table 45 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Pack Type: % Volume Breakdown 2011-2016

Cigars in Belgium - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • Belgium has a long tradition of cigar smoking, in particular standard cigars and cigarillos. Belgium is one of the biggest cigarillo consumers in Europe. The country used to be an important cigar producer. The cigar category in Belgium is dominated by cigars that weigh less than 3g. The consumption of cigars and cigarillos remains almost exclusively the domain of male smokers, and is dominated by mass-market products. The largest consumer group comprises men aged 35-54. Female cigar smokers in Belgium are relatively uncommon, accounting for less than 1% of the female population. Females tend to prefer flavoured cigarillos.

HANDMADE VERSUS MACHINE-MANUFACTURED SPLITS

  • Table 46 Sales of Cigars by Handmade vs Machine-made: % Volume/Value Breakdown 2007-2011

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

  • The Belgian cigar category continued to be dominated by international player Scandinavian Tobacco Group Benelux, a branch of Scandinavian Tobacco Group A/S, in 2011. Scandinavian Tobacco Group Benelux accounted for more than half of the total volume sales of cigars and cigarillos in 2011. This leading position is mainly due its best-selling brands Café Crème, La Paz, Don Pablo, Mercator and Corps Diplomatique. A series of mergers and acquisitions has made Scandinavian Tobacco Group A/S the strongest player in the market.

NEW PRODUCT DEVELOPMENTS

  • Summary 11 Cigars - New Product Launches

DISTRIBUTION

PROSPECTS

  • Over the forecast period the cigarillo category is forecast to remain flat in volume terms and post a decline in constant value terms. Cigarillos are however expected to outperform the overall cigars category over the forecast period as the smoking ban is likely to continue to make it difficult for cigars smokers to find the time or space to smoke a full-length cigar. In response, manufacturers are expected to launch new products that are shorter but tastier cigarillos.

CATEGORY DATA

  • Table 47 Sales of Cigars by Category: Volume 2006-2011
  • Table 48 Sales of Cigars by Category: Value 2006-2011
  • Table 49 Sales of Cigars by Category: % Volume Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 50 Sales of Cigars by Category: % Value Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 51 Sales of Cigars by Handmade vs Machine-manufactured: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 52 Sales of Cigars by Handmade vs Machine-manufactured: % Value Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 53 Company Shares of Cigars Excluding Cigarillos 2007-2011
  • Table 54 Brand Shares of Cigars Excluding Cigarillos 2008-2011
  • Table 55 Company Shares of Cigarillos 2007-2011
  • Table 56 Brand Shares of Cigarillos 2008-2011
  • Table 57 Sales of Cigars by Distribution Format: % Analysis 2006-2011
  • Table 58 Forecast Sales of Cigars by Category: Volume 2011-2016
  • Table 59 Forecast Sales of Cigars by Category: Value 2011-2016
  • Table 60 Forecast Sales of Cigars by Category: % Volume Growth 2011-2016
  • Table 61 Forecast Sales of Cigars by Category: % Value Growth 2011-2016

Smoking Tobacco in Belgium - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • Whereas pipe smoking is a habit characteristic of older people in Belgium, RYO tobacco used to be reserved to a poorer consumer base. Belgium has always been more of a cigarette smoking country. However, since the economic crisis, RYO tobacco has been gaining momentum as consumers have sought cheaper alternatives to cigarettes. Consuming RYO tobacco is no longer a question of social class. In 2011, RYO tobacco appealed to all sorts of people, particularly teenagers and young adults who primarily choose economy products.

THE ROLE AND EFFECT OF CANNABIS/MARIJUANA

DISTRIBUTION

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

  • In 2011, British American Tobacco Belgium SA continued to lead both smoking tobacco and RYO tobacco with a 55% volume share. Ranked second was Imperial Tobacco Belgium with a 13% share of volume sales. The Belgian company Gryson NV ranked third with around an 8% share. The other companies present include JT International Co Netherlands BV and Philip Morris Belgium BVBA, which, upon seeing the rising popularity of RYO tobacco, have entered the market over the past few years.

NEW PRODUCT DEVELOPMENTS

  • Summary 12 New Product Developments

PROSPECTS

  • Over the forecast period RYO tobacco is expected to continue to grow while pipe tobacco will continue to decline. RYO tobacco is anticipated a CAGR of 1% in constant value terms and 3% in volume terms. Given the increasing prices of cigarettes, more smokers will switch from manufactured cigarettes to RYO tobacco. Pipe tobacco, however, is predicted a volume CAGR decline of 8%. However, taxation on smoking tobacco and ultimately unit price did increase in 2011 with the increase of minimum duty per kg, rising from €41.02 to €43.12 and expected to increase further over the forecast period, thus slowing the performance of the category.

CATEGORY DATA

  • Table 62 Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: Volume 2006-2011
  • Table 63 Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: Value 2006-2011
  • Table 64 Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 65 Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 66 Company Shares of RYO Tobacco 2007-2011
  • Table 67 Brand Shares of RYO Tobacco 2008-2011
  • Table 68 Company Shares of Pipe Tobacco 2007-2011
  • Table 69 Brand Shares of Pipe Tobacco 2008-2011
  • Table 70 Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Distribution Format: % Analysis 2006-2011
  • Table 71 Forecast Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: Volume 2011-2016
  • Table 72 Forecast Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: Value 2011-2016
  • Table 73 Forecast Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2011-2016
  • Table 74 Forecast Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2011-2016

Segmentation

Segmentation

This market research report includes the following:

  • Tobacco
    • Cigarettes
      • High Tar Cigarettes
      • Mid Tar Cigarettes
      • Low Tar Cigarettes
      • Ultra Low Tar Cigarettes
    • Cigars
      • Cigars Excluding Cigarillos
        • Large Cigars
        • Standard Cigars
        • Small Cigars
      • Cigarillos
    • Smoking Tobacco
      • RYO Tobacco
      • Pipe Tobacco
    • Smokeless Tobacco
      • Chewing Tobacco
        • Asian-Style Chewing Tobacco
        • US-Style Chewing Tobacco
        • Other Chewing Tobacco
      • Snuff
        • Moist Snuff
          • US-Style Moist Snuff ('Dip')
            • Loose US-Style Moist Snuff
            • Portion US-Style Moist Snuff
          • Swedish-Style Snus
            • Loose Swedish-Style Snus
            • Portion Swedish-Style Snus
          • Asian Style Creamy Snuff
        • Dry Snuff
        • Hard Snuff
    • Cigarettes Including RYO Stick Equivalent
      • High Tar Cigarettes
      • Mid Tar Cigarettes
      • Low Tar Cigarettes
      • Ultra Low Tar Cigarettes
      • RYO Cigarettes

Statistics Included

Statistics Included

For each category and subcategory you will receive the following data in Excel format:

From Passport

  • Market sizes
  • Company shares
  • Brand shares
  • Distribution
  • Analysis by type
  • Cigarettes by blend
  • Cigarettes by carbon filter/non-carbon filter
  • Cigarettes by filtered/unfiltered
  • Cigarettes by length
  • Cigarettes by pack size
  • Cigarettes by pack type
  • Cigarettes by price band
  • Cigarettes by regular/slim/superslim
  • Cigarettes by standard/menthol
  • Illicit trade penetration
  • Pricing
  • Products by ingredient
  • Products by ingredient
  • Smoking population - number of adult smokers
  • Smoking prevalence - % of adult population
  • Taxation
  • Trade statistics - volume

Market size details:

  • Retail volume
  • Retail volume % growth
  • Retail volume per capita
  • Retail value retail selling price % growth
  • Retail value retail selling price local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Retail value retail selling price per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Illicit trade volume
  • Illicit trade volume % growth
  • Illicit trade volume per capita
  • Retail volume (sticks)
  • Retail volume (sticks) % growth
  • Retail volume (sticks) per capita
  • Retail plus illicit trade
  • Retail plus illicit trade % growth
  • Retail plus illicit trade per capita

Methodology

Methodology

Global insight and local knowledge

With 40 years’ experience of developed and emerging markets, Euromonitor International’s research method is built on a unique combination of specialist industry knowledge and in-country research expertise.

This approach is what enables us to achieve our goal of building a market consensus view of size, shape and trends across the full distribution universe of each category. We factor in whichever channels are relevant, from large-scale grocery to direct sellers, from discount stores to local mom-and-pop outlets.

Industry specialists

Each industry we cover is managed by an Industry Manager and team of Industry Analysts who research and report on their specialist categories all year round.

Our collaborative approach to research means that these industry teams are in constant dialogue with industry players and opinion formers. The planning of our research programmes reflects latest market trends and industry events. In completing each update project, this provides invaluable input to the testing, review and finalisation of our data.

The specialist in-house teams bring together findings from all stages of the annual research process. They work closely with in-country analysts, assess and challenge data and exercise final editorial control over the publication of new data and analysis.

Country and regional analysts

Our in-country analyst network is managed by country and regional analysts in our offices around the world. Working closely with each in-country team, the regional research management team ensures that all country researchers are well schooled in best practices, from the information collected in store checks, to the dialogue we build in trade surveys. Our country analysts ensure that national reports explain the data trends and provide clear insights into the local market’s dynamics.

In-country research network

To deliver fresh insights every year in countries all around the world, we believe the strongest approach is to use analysts on the ground. They bring fluency in local language, physical proximity to the best sources, an ability to engage directly with local industry contacts, and an awareness of how the products and services we study are advertised, sold and consumed. These are essential parts of our ability to report incisively on these markets.

Research Methodology

Our research methods

Each Euromonitor International industry report is based on a core set of research techniques:

Desk research

With industry events, corporate activity, trends and new product introductions tracked year round by our industry team, desk research provides a starting point for the in-country research programme. Our in-country researchers will access the following sources:

  • National statistics offices governmental and official sources
  • National and international trade press
  • National and international trade associations
  • Industry study groups and other semi-official sources
  • Company financials and annual reports
  • Broker reports
  • Online databases
  • The financial, business and mainstream press

Accessing sources is only the first step. The ability to interpret and reconcile often conflicting information across multiple sources is a key aspect of the added value we provide.

Store checks

Store checks are an integral part of our methods for product industries. Carried out on the ground across a relevant mix of channels, the information gained provides first-hand insights into the products we are researching, specifically:

  • Place: We track products in all relevant channels, selective and mass, store and non-store
  • Product: What are innovations in products, pack sizes and formats?
  • Price: What are brand price variations across channels, how do private label’s prices compare to those of branded goods?
  • Promotion: What are marketing and merchandising trends, offers, discounts and tie-ins?

Findings are cross-referenced with brand share data analysis. The results, combined with the findings of desk research, provide a strong basis for identifying key areas of questioning to take forward into our trade survey.

Trade survey

Interaction with global players at corporate HQ and regional levels is complemented by unique local data and insights from our in-country trade surveys around the world. Through the high profile of the Euromonitor International brand, we are able to talk directly to a wide range of sources and therefore inform our analysis with the knowledge and opinions of the leading operators in the market.

Trade surveys allow us to:

  • Fill gaps in available published data per company
  • Generate a consensus view of the size, structure and strategic direction of the category
  • Access year-in-progress data where published sources are out of date
  • Evaluate the experts’ views on current trends and market developments

In building our composite industry view, we engage with a variety of personnel in key players at all points of the supply chain: materials suppliers, manufacturers, distributors, retailers and service operators. We also interview desk research sources: industry associations; study groups; and third party observers from the trade and financial press.

Our objective is to engage in conversation with trade sources in which we exchange ideas and views on the industry, sharing our work-in-progress findings on supply/demand dynamics and potential. This dialogue enhances both parties’ understanding of the local market. The scope and reach of our trade survey also serves to eliminate bias (intentional and unintentional) from any single source.

Company analysis

At a global level, our company research combines our mix of industry interaction and use of secondary sources such as annual accounts, broker reports, financial press and databases. From a data perspective, the aim is to build “top-down” estimates of major players’ total global and regional sales.

At a country level, in line with local reporting requirements, we access annual accounts, national-specific company databases and local company websites. These are all invaluable sources as we build a view of each domestic player’s size and position within very specific categories of the industry.

Forecasts

Data projections and future performance analysis are key elements of Euromonitor International’s market intelligence. Working with historic trends of 15 years or more, a key aspect of our trade survey is to engage industry insider views of the next five years. Will volumes maintain their historic trend? Will price increases or falls of recent years continue, accelerate or slow down? Will increasing demand for one product cannibalise sales of another?

Forecasts represent many of the essential conclusions we have reached about the current state of the market, how it works and how it behaves under different macro and micro conditions. Our written analysis will state the assumptions and the trade opinion behind whether our predictions are optimistic or pessimistic, so that clients can use our statistical forecasts with confidence.

Data validation

All data is subjected to an exhaustive review process, at country, regional and global levels.

The interpretation and review of sources and data inputs forms a central part of the collaboration between industry teams and country researchers. Numbers are delivered to regional and global offices with an audit trail of sources and calculations to allow for a thorough evaluation of data sense and integrity.

Upon completion of the country review phase, data is then reviewed on a comparative basis at regional and then at a global level. Comparative checks are carried out on per capita consumption and spending levels, growth rates, patterns of category and subcategory breakdowns and distribution of sales by channel. Top-down estimates are reviewed against bottom-up regional and global market and company sales totals.

Where marked differences are seen between proximate country markets or ones at similar developmental levels, supplementary research is conducted in the relevant countries to confirm and/or amend those findings. This process ensures international comparability across the database, that consistent category and subcategory definitions have been used and that all data has been correctly tested. We make sure that possible discrepancies between different published sources have been reconciled and that our interpretation of opinion and expectation from each country’s trade sources has been applied to form a coherent international pattern.

Market analysis

Another integral part of all our research programmes is that all Euromonitor International data is accompanied by clear written analysis. From a research perspective, this explains and substantiates data findings. From a client perspective, this offers unique insights into local consumption trends, routes to market, brand preferences, channel dynamics and future trends.

Our country level analysis also provides invaluable input into the ability of our central industry specialist teams to marry local insights with strategic conclusions on the direction of the market regionally and globally.

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