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Country Report

Tobacco in Denmark

Jan 2013

Price: US$1,900

About this Report

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Tobacco records positive retail current value growth in 2011

While volume sales continued to slowly decline in 2011, in retail current value terms tobacco registered a positive performance. This was mainly a result of higher taxation, which in turn increased average unit prices. Volume sales were continuously driven down by tightening legislation, increasing taxation, growing social opposition to smoking and a variety of government anti-smoking initiatives.

Changes in operating environment profoundly impact tobacco market

Amendments to tobacco legislation continued to have a strong impact on sales. The public smoking ban, which significantly affected volume sales during the review period, continued to do so in 2011. The smoking ban has become accepted as the norm in Danish society. In addition, tobacco taxes were raised in 2010 and 2011, which had a particularly negative effect on cigarette sales. Together with growing consumer price-sensitivity, increased taxation encouraged manufacturers to focus on the development of the economy segment. The number of new product launches also slowed as manufacturers tried to minimise the risk by strengthening the positions of their leading brands.

Grocery retailers dominate tobacco sales

Grocery retailers dominate tobacco distribution in the Danish market, with small grocery retailers (convenience stores, independent small grocers and forecourt retailers) leading the way in all tobacco categories. Tobacco specialists command a particularly strong share of cigar and smoking tobacco sales. This is linked to the generally lower appeal of these tobacco categories among the general population and the willingness of these retailers to offer a more comprehensive product portfolio than other grocery retailers. Internet retailing is gaining share on an annual basis but remains marginal in the context of overall tobacco sales.

Consolidated competitive environment

The Danish tobacco competitive environment is extremely concentrated, particularly in cigarettes and smoking tobacco. British American Tobacco Denmark A/S dominates the important cigarette category with a number of key brands such as Prince, Look and Pall Mall. Domestic companies such as Scandinavian Tobacco Group A/S and Mac Baren Tobacco Co A/S hold prominent positions in cigars and smoking tobacco. All in all, tobacco sales in Denmark are in the hands of seven companies.

Tobacco set to record a constant value decline over the forecast period

Tobacco in Denmark is expected to register a constant value decline over the forecast period, mainly due to declining smoking prevalence and a fall in volume sales of cigarettes and smoking tobacco. Tobacco players are also expected to further develop the economy cigarette segment in the coming years, which will have an adverse impact on value growth. The growing importance of the health and wellness trend together with government initiatives may lead to greater restrictions with regard to the sale of tobacco. A further increase in taxation, visual warnings on packaging and a point-of-sale display ban are all currently on the agenda of the Danish government, and if introduced over the forecast period will lead to tobacco value sales suffering even more than predicted.


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Overview

Discover the latest market trends and uncover sources of future market growth for the Tobacco industry in Denmark with research from Euromonitor's team of in-country analysts.

Find hidden opportunities in the most current research data available, understand competitive threats with our detailed market analysis, and plan your corporate strategy with our expert qualitative analysis and growth projections.

If you're in the Tobacco industry in Denmark, our research will save you time and money while empowering you to make informed, profitable decisions.

When you purchase this report, you also get the data and the content from these category reports in Denmark for free:

The Tobacco in Denmark market research report includes:

  • Analysis of key supply-side and demand trends
  • Detailed segmentation of international and local products
  • Historic volumes and values, company and brand market shares
  • Five year forecasts of market trends and market growth
  • Production, imports by origin, exports by destination
  • Robust and transparent market research methodology, conducted in-country

Our market research reports answer questions such as:

  • What is the market size of Tobacco in Denmark?
  • What are the major brands in Denmark?
  • Which sector of the tobacco products market is the largest by value sales in Denmark?
  • Which sector of the tobacco products market has been growing the fastest, by volume and value, in Denmark?
  • Which sector is the most heavily taxed in Denmark?
  • Which companies dominate in the total tobacco market in Denmark in terms of market share?
  • What is the distribution channel split for the tobacco products market in Denmark?

Why buy this report?

  • Gain competitive intelligence about market leaders
  • Track key industry trends, opportunities and threats
  • Inform your marketing, brand, strategy and market development, sales and supply functions

This industry report originates from Passport, our Tobacco market research database.

Table of Contents

Table of Contents

Tobacco in Denmark - Industry Overview

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Tobacco records positive retail current value growth in 2011

Changes in operating environment profoundly impact tobacco market

Grocery retailers dominate tobacco sales

Consolidated competitive environment

Tobacco set to record a constant value decline over the forecast period

OPERATING ENVIRONMENT

LEGISLATION

  • Summary 1 Legislation Summary at a Glance

Country-specific legislation:

Minimum legal smoking age

Smoking prevalence

  • Table 1 Smoking Prevalence in Adult Population 2006-2011
  • Table 2 Number of Smokers by Gender 2006-2011

Tar levels

Health warnings

Advertising & sponsorship

Point-of-sale display bans

Smoking in public places

Low ignition propensity (LIP) regulation

‘Reduced harm’

Electronic cigarettes

Litigation

Death by cause

  • Table 3 Death by Cause 2007-2011

TAXATION AND PRICING

Duty paid packet marks

Taxation rates

  • Table 4 Taxation and Duty Levies 2006-2011
  • Table 5 Taxation and Duty Levies 2006-2011
  • Table 6 Taxation and Duty Levies 2006-2011
  • Table 7 Taxation and Duty Levies 2006-2011
  • Table 8 Taxation and Duty Levies 2006-2011

Average cigarette pack price breakdown

  • Table 9 Average Cigarette Pack Price Breakdown: Brand Examples

PRODUCTION/IMPORTS/EXPORTS

  • Table 10 Production/Imports/Exports 2008-2011

Illicit trade in cigarettes

MARKET INDICATORS

  • Table 11 Illicit Trade Estimate of Cigarettes by Volume 2006-2011

MARKET DATA

  • Table 12 Sales of Tobacco by Category: Volume 2006-2011
  • Table 13 Sales of Tobacco by Category: Value 2006-2011
  • Table 14 Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 15 Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 16 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: Volume 2011-2016
  • Table 17 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: Value 2011-2016
  • Table 18 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2011-2016
  • Table 19 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2011-2016

SOURCES

  • Summary 2 Research Sources

Tobacco in Denmark - Company Profiles

British American Tobacco Denmark A/S in Tobacco (Denmark)

STRATEGIC DIRECTION

KEY FACTS

COMPANY BACKGROUND

PRODUCTION

COMPETITIVE POSITIONING

  • Summary 5 British American Tobacco Denmark A/S: Competitive Position 2011

Mac Baren Tobacco Co A/S in Tobacco (Denmark)

STRATEGIC DIRECTION

KEY FACTS

COMPANY BACKGROUND

PRODUCTION

COMPETITIVE POSITIONING

  • Summary 8 Mac Baren Tobacco Co A/S: Competitive Position 2011

Scandinavian Tobacco Group A/S in Tobacco (Denmark)

STRATEGIC DIRECTION

KEY FACTS

COMPANY BACKGROUND

PRODUCTION

COMPETITIVE POSITIONING

  • Summary 11 Scandinavian Tobacco Group A/S: Competitive Position 2011

Cigarettes in Denmark - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • Retail volume sales of cigarettes declined by 2% in 2011 to 7,502 million sticks. This reflects the impact of a taxation increase on sales. Average unit price in cigarettes increased sharply from DKK1.45 per stick in 2009 to DKK1.65 per stick in 2010. In January 2011, a new taxation increase was approved by the Danish government, raising taxation by DKK3.00 per 20 cigarette pack with effect from 1 April 2012.

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

  • Cigarette sales in Denmark in 2011 continued to be dominated by Danish subsidiaries of multinationals. British American Tobacco Denmark, Philip Morris and Gallaher Denmark accounted for a combined 99% share of retail volume sales in 2011.

NEW PRODUCT DEVELOPMENTS

  • Summary 12 Cigarettes - New Product Launches

DISTRIBUTION

PROSPECTS

  • Cigarettes is expected to record a retail volume CAGR decline of 2% over 2011-2016. This will be the result of taxation increases, increased consumer health-consciousness and declining smoking prevalence. Male smoking prevalence, historically higher than that of women, is set to fall from 22% in 2011 to19% in 2016 while female smoking prevalence will decline from 21% to 18%. The cigarette category is also expected to register a constant value CAGR decline of 2% over the forecast period.

CATEGORY BACKGROUND

Cigarettes: Price bands

  • Summary 13 Cigarette Price Band Definitions

Cigarettes: Menthol/standard

Cigarettes: Filter/non-filter

Cigarettes: Carbon/standard filter

Cigarettes: Filter length

Cigarettes: Regular vs slims vs superslims

Cigarettes: Pack size

Cigarettes: Pack type

CATEGORY DATA

  • Table 20 Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: Volume 2006-2011
  • Table 21 Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: Value 2006-2011
  • Table 22 Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: % Volume Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 23 Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: % Value Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 24 Sales of Cigarettes by Price Band: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 25 Sales of Cigarettes by Standard/Menthol: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 26 Sales of Cigarettes by Tobacco Type: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 27 Sales of Cigarettes by Filter Vs Non-filter: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 28 Sales of Filter Cigarettes by Carbon Vs Non-carbon: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 29 Sales of Cigarettes by Length: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 30 Sales of Cigarettes by Regular/Slim/Superslim: % Volume Breakdown 2007-2011
  • Table 31 Sales of Cigarettes by Pack Size: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 32 Sales of Cigarettes by Pack Type: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 33 Cigarettes Company Shares 2007-2011
  • Table 34 Cigarettes Brand Shares 2008-2011
  • Table 35 Sales of Cigarettes by Distribution Format: % Analysis 2006-2011
  • Table 36 Cigarettes: Production, Imports and Exports: Total Volume 2006-2011
  • Table 37 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: Volume 2011-2016
  • Table 38 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: Value 2011-2016
  • Table 39 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: % Volume Growth 2011-2016
  • Table 40 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: % Value Growth 2011-2016
  • Table 41 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Price Band: % Volume Breakdown 2011-2016
  • Table 42 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Standard/Menthol: % Volume Breakdown 2011-2016
  • Table 43 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tobacco Type: % Volume Breakdown 2011-2016
  • Table 44 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Filter Vs Non-filter: % Volume Breakdown 2011-2016
  • Table 45 Forecast Sales of Filter Cigarettes by Carbon Vs Non-carbon: % Volume Breakdown 2011-2016
  • Table 46 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Length: % Volume Breakdown 2011-2016
  • Table 47 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Regular/Slim/Superslim: % Volume Breakdown 2011-2016
  • Table 48 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Pack Size: % Volume Breakdown 2011-2016
  • Table 49 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Pack Type: % Volume Breakdown 2011-2016

Cigars in Denmark - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • There is a strong tradition for both smoking and manufacturing cigars in Denmark. What is really noticeable is the relatively high number of female cigar smokers as traditionally it has been socially acceptable for women to smoke cigars in Denmark. While many younger smokers changed to cigarettes during the 1970s and 1980s, cigars had a small revival and became fashionable again during the mid-to-late 1990s, especially among those aged 25-35 of both genders. Over the review period people continued to typically acquire the habit at this age, and the majority of cigar smokers remained former cigarette smokers.

Handmade Versus Machine-Manufactured Splits

  • Table 50 Sales of Cigars by Handmade vs Machine-made: % Volume/Value Breakdown 2007-2011

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

  • Cigars sales in Denmark are highly concentrated, with the two leaders Scandinavian Tobacco Group A/S and Mac Baren Tobacco Co A/S accounting for a combined retail volume share of 92% in 2011.

NEW PRODUCT DEVELOPMENTS

  • Summary 14 Cigars - New Product Launches

DISTRIBUTION

PROSPECTS

  • Cigars is expected to record a retail volume CAGR decline of 1% over the forecast period to stand at sales of 66 million units in 2016. This performance can be linked to an expected fall in smoking prevalence as a result of increasing health-consciousness. However, this 1% annual decline over the forecast period will be a much more positive performance than the review period CAGR decline of 7%. The main reason for this was that the public smoking ban had a detrimental effect on cigars and cigarillos but the effect of it will wear off over the forecast period.

CATEGORY DATA

  • Table 51 Sales of Cigars by Category: Volume 2006-2011
  • Table 52 Sales of Cigars by Category: Value 2006-2011
  • Table 53 Sales of Cigars by Category: % Volume Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 54 Sales of Cigars by Category: % Value Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 55 Sales of Cigars by Handmade vs Machine-manufactured: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 56 Sales of Cigars by Handmade vs Machine-manufactured: % Value Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 57 Company Shares of Cigars Excluding Cigarillos 2007-2011
  • Table 58 Brand Shares of Cigars Excluding Cigarillos 2008-2011
  • Table 59 Company Shares of Cigarillos 2007-2011
  • Table 60 Brand Shares of Cigarillos 2008-2011
  • Table 61 Sales of Cigars by Distribution Format: % Analysis 2006-2011
  • Table 62 Forecast Sales of Cigars by Category: Volume 2011-2016
  • Table 63 Forecast Sales of Cigars by Category: Value 2011-2016
  • Table 64 Forecast Sales of Cigars by Category: % Volume Growth 2011-2016
  • Table 65 Forecast Sales of Cigars by Category: % Value Growth 2011-2016

Smokeless Tobacco in Denmark - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • The public smoking ban, constantly increasing cigarette taxation and the positioning of smokeless tobacco as a healthier alternative led to an increase in smokeless tobacco sales in 2011. Retail volume sales of smokeless tobacco rose by 5% in 2011 to reach 43 tonnes. In Denmark, smokeless tobacco is promoted and widely accepted as a less harmful alternative to smoking tobacco. As a result, a growing number of smokers have supplemented cigarettes and RYO tobacco with US-style chewing tobacco or loose Swedish-style snus in recent years, with some switching entirely to these products. Another emerging trend saw smokers utilise smokeless tobacco as an alternative to NRT smoking cessation aids.

DISTRIBUTION

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

  • Smokeless tobacco is a very concentrated category, with four companies commanding an 89% share of volume sales in 2011. The newest entry is V2 Tobacco A/S, which launched its products in 2006.

NEW PRODUCT DEVELOPMENTS

  • Summary 15 Smokeless Tobacco - New Product Launches

PROSPECTS

  • Over the forecast period smokeless tobacco is anticipated a retail volume CAGR of 3% to reach sales of 50 tonnes in 2016. Growth will be driven by consumer perception of Swedish-style snus as a healthier tobacco alternative. Continued product launches and innovations will serve to attract and retain consumer interest. The continued positioning of snus as a method to quit smoking will also help to attract new consumers to smokeless tobacco.

CATEGORY DATA

  • Table 66 Sales of Smokeless Tobacco by Category: Volume 2006-2011
  • Table 67 Sales of Smokeless Tobacco by Category: Value 2006-2011
  • Table 68 Sales of Smokeless Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 69 Sales of Smokeless Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 70 Company Shares of Smokeless Tobacco 2007-2011
  • Table 71 Brand Shares of Smokeless Tobacco 2008-2011
  • Table 72 Sales of Smokless Tobacco by Distribution Format: % Analysis 2006-2011
  • Table 73 Forecast Sales of Smokeless Tobacco by Category: Volume 2011-2016
  • Table 74 Forecast Sales of Smokeless Tobacco by Category: Value 2011-2016
  • Table 75 Forecast Sales of Smokeless Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2011-2016
  • Table 76 Forecast Sales of Smokeless Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2011-2016

Smoking Tobacco in Denmark - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • Danes have a long tradition of smoking pipe and roll-your-own (RYO) tobacco. In addition, the country has a strong tradition for manufacturing pipes and tobacco. Strong domestic companies Scandinavian Tobacco Group and Mac Baren Tobacco are well-known manufacturers and the absolute leaders in smoking tobacco. Strong domestic production of pipes and tobacco has traditionally led to a high number of pipe smokers in the country.

The Role and Effect of Cannabis/Marijuana

DISTRIBUTION

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

  • Sales of smoking tobacco are extremely concentrated in Denmark, namely in the hands of two leading domestic players, Scandinavian Tobacco Group A/S and Mac Baren Tobacco Co A/S. Due to a strong tradition for pipe tobacco manufacturing in Denmark, these two companies are also both leading global players. There were no foreign companies present in smoking tobacco in Denmark in 2011 and this trend is unlikely to change over the forecast period.

NEW PRODUCT DEVELOPMENTS

  • Summary 16 Cigars - New Product Launches

PROSPECTS

  • Volume sales are expected to decline further over the forecast period, representing a continuation of the review period trend. Similar to tobacco sales in general, a decline in smoking prevalence will have a negative impact on sales. The decline in smoking prevalence will be largely related to increased health- consciousness.

CATEGORY DATA

  • Table 77 Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: Volume 2006-2011
  • Table 78 Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: Value 2006-2011
  • Table 79 Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 80 Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 81 Company Shares of RYO Tobacco 2007-2011
  • Table 82 Brand Shares of RYO Tobacco 2008-2011
  • Table 83 Company Shares of Pipe Tobacco 2007-2011
  • Table 84 Brand Shares of Pipe Tobacco 2008-2011
  • Table 85 Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Distribution Format: % Analysis 2006-2011
  • Table 86 Forecast Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: Volume 2011-2016
  • Table 87 Forecast Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: Value 2011-2016
  • Table 88 Forecast Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2011-2016
  • Table 89 Forecast Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2011-2016

Segmentation

Segmentation

This market research report includes the following:

  • Tobacco
    • Cigarettes
      • High Tar Cigarettes
      • Mid Tar Cigarettes
      • Low Tar Cigarettes
      • Ultra Low Tar Cigarettes
    • Cigars
      • Cigars Excluding Cigarillos
        • Large Cigars
        • Standard Cigars
        • Small Cigars
      • Cigarillos
    • Smoking Tobacco
      • RYO Tobacco
      • Pipe Tobacco
    • Smokeless Tobacco
      • Chewing Tobacco
        • Asian-Style Chewing Tobacco
        • US-Style Chewing Tobacco
        • Other Chewing Tobacco
      • Snuff
        • Moist Snuff
          • US-Style Moist Snuff ('Dip')
            • Loose US-Style Moist Snuff
            • Portion US-Style Moist Snuff
          • Swedish-Style Snus
            • Loose Swedish-Style Snus
            • Portion Swedish-Style Snus
          • Asian Style Creamy Snuff
        • Dry Snuff
        • Hard Snuff
    • Cigarettes Including RYO Stick Equivalent
      • High Tar Cigarettes
      • Mid Tar Cigarettes
      • Low Tar Cigarettes
      • Ultra Low Tar Cigarettes
      • RYO Cigarettes

Statistics Included

Statistics Included

For each category and subcategory you will receive the following data in Excel format:

From Passport

  • Market sizes
  • Company shares
  • Brand shares
  • Distribution
  • Analysis by type
  • Cigarettes by blend
  • Cigarettes by carbon filter/non-carbon filter
  • Cigarettes by filtered/unfiltered
  • Cigarettes by length
  • Cigarettes by pack size
  • Cigarettes by pack type
  • Cigarettes by price band
  • Cigarettes by regular/slim/superslim
  • Cigarettes by standard/menthol
  • Illicit trade penetration
  • Pricing
  • Products by ingredient
  • Products by ingredient
  • Smoking population - number of adult smokers
  • Smoking prevalence - % of adult population
  • Taxation
  • Trade statistics - volume

Market size details:

  • Retail volume
  • Retail volume % growth
  • Retail volume per capita
  • Retail value retail selling price % growth
  • Retail value retail selling price local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Retail value retail selling price per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Illicit trade volume
  • Illicit trade volume % growth
  • Illicit trade volume per capita
  • Retail volume (sticks)
  • Retail volume (sticks) % growth
  • Retail volume (sticks) per capita
  • Retail plus illicit trade
  • Retail plus illicit trade % growth
  • Retail plus illicit trade per capita

Methodology

Methodology

Global insight and local knowledge

With 40 years’ experience of developed and emerging markets, Euromonitor International’s research method is built on a unique combination of specialist industry knowledge and in-country research expertise.

This approach is what enables us to achieve our goal of building a market consensus view of size, shape and trends across the full distribution universe of each category. We factor in whichever channels are relevant, from large-scale grocery to direct sellers, from discount stores to local mom-and-pop outlets.

Industry specialists

Each industry we cover is managed by an Industry Manager and team of Industry Analysts who research and report on their specialist categories all year round.

Our collaborative approach to research means that these industry teams are in constant dialogue with industry players and opinion formers. The planning of our research programmes reflects latest market trends and industry events. In completing each update project, this provides invaluable input to the testing, review and finalisation of our data.

The specialist in-house teams bring together findings from all stages of the annual research process. They work closely with in-country analysts, assess and challenge data and exercise final editorial control over the publication of new data and analysis.

Country and regional analysts

Our in-country analyst network is managed by country and regional analysts in our offices around the world. Working closely with each in-country team, the regional research management team ensures that all country researchers are well schooled in best practices, from the information collected in store checks, to the dialogue we build in trade surveys. Our country analysts ensure that national reports explain the data trends and provide clear insights into the local market’s dynamics.

In-country research network

To deliver fresh insights every year in countries all around the world, we believe the strongest approach is to use analysts on the ground. They bring fluency in local language, physical proximity to the best sources, an ability to engage directly with local industry contacts, and an awareness of how the products and services we study are advertised, sold and consumed. These are essential parts of our ability to report incisively on these markets.

Research Methodology

Our research methods

Each Euromonitor International industry report is based on a core set of research techniques:

Desk research

With industry events, corporate activity, trends and new product introductions tracked year round by our industry team, desk research provides a starting point for the in-country research programme. Our in-country researchers will access the following sources:

  • National statistics offices governmental and official sources
  • National and international trade press
  • National and international trade associations
  • Industry study groups and other semi-official sources
  • Company financials and annual reports
  • Broker reports
  • Online databases
  • The financial, business and mainstream press

Accessing sources is only the first step. The ability to interpret and reconcile often conflicting information across multiple sources is a key aspect of the added value we provide.

Store checks

Store checks are an integral part of our methods for product industries. Carried out on the ground across a relevant mix of channels, the information gained provides first-hand insights into the products we are researching, specifically:

  • Place: We track products in all relevant channels, selective and mass, store and non-store
  • Product: What are innovations in products, pack sizes and formats?
  • Price: What are brand price variations across channels, how do private label’s prices compare to those of branded goods?
  • Promotion: What are marketing and merchandising trends, offers, discounts and tie-ins?

Findings are cross-referenced with brand share data analysis. The results, combined with the findings of desk research, provide a strong basis for identifying key areas of questioning to take forward into our trade survey.

Trade survey

Interaction with global players at corporate HQ and regional levels is complemented by unique local data and insights from our in-country trade surveys around the world. Through the high profile of the Euromonitor International brand, we are able to talk directly to a wide range of sources and therefore inform our analysis with the knowledge and opinions of the leading operators in the market.

Trade surveys allow us to:

  • Fill gaps in available published data per company
  • Generate a consensus view of the size, structure and strategic direction of the category
  • Access year-in-progress data where published sources are out of date
  • Evaluate the experts’ views on current trends and market developments

In building our composite industry view, we engage with a variety of personnel in key players at all points of the supply chain: materials suppliers, manufacturers, distributors, retailers and service operators. We also interview desk research sources: industry associations; study groups; and third party observers from the trade and financial press.

Our objective is to engage in conversation with trade sources in which we exchange ideas and views on the industry, sharing our work-in-progress findings on supply/demand dynamics and potential. This dialogue enhances both parties’ understanding of the local market. The scope and reach of our trade survey also serves to eliminate bias (intentional and unintentional) from any single source.

Company analysis

At a global level, our company research combines our mix of industry interaction and use of secondary sources such as annual accounts, broker reports, financial press and databases. From a data perspective, the aim is to build “top-down” estimates of major players’ total global and regional sales.

At a country level, in line with local reporting requirements, we access annual accounts, national-specific company databases and local company websites. These are all invaluable sources as we build a view of each domestic player’s size and position within very specific categories of the industry.

Forecasts

Data projections and future performance analysis are key elements of Euromonitor International’s market intelligence. Working with historic trends of 15 years or more, a key aspect of our trade survey is to engage industry insider views of the next five years. Will volumes maintain their historic trend? Will price increases or falls of recent years continue, accelerate or slow down? Will increasing demand for one product cannibalise sales of another?

Forecasts represent many of the essential conclusions we have reached about the current state of the market, how it works and how it behaves under different macro and micro conditions. Our written analysis will state the assumptions and the trade opinion behind whether our predictions are optimistic or pessimistic, so that clients can use our statistical forecasts with confidence.

Data validation

All data is subjected to an exhaustive review process, at country, regional and global levels.

The interpretation and review of sources and data inputs forms a central part of the collaboration between industry teams and country researchers. Numbers are delivered to regional and global offices with an audit trail of sources and calculations to allow for a thorough evaluation of data sense and integrity.

Upon completion of the country review phase, data is then reviewed on a comparative basis at regional and then at a global level. Comparative checks are carried out on per capita consumption and spending levels, growth rates, patterns of category and subcategory breakdowns and distribution of sales by channel. Top-down estimates are reviewed against bottom-up regional and global market and company sales totals.

Where marked differences are seen between proximate country markets or ones at similar developmental levels, supplementary research is conducted in the relevant countries to confirm and/or amend those findings. This process ensures international comparability across the database, that consistent category and subcategory definitions have been used and that all data has been correctly tested. We make sure that possible discrepancies between different published sources have been reconciled and that our interpretation of opinion and expectation from each country’s trade sources has been applied to form a coherent international pattern.

Market analysis

Another integral part of all our research programmes is that all Euromonitor International data is accompanied by clear written analysis. From a research perspective, this explains and substantiates data findings. From a client perspective, this offers unique insights into local consumption trends, routes to market, brand preferences, channel dynamics and future trends.

Our country level analysis also provides invaluable input into the ability of our central industry specialist teams to marry local insights with strategic conclusions on the direction of the market regionally and globally.

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