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Country Report

Tobacco in Egypt

Oct 2012

Price: US$1,900

About this Report

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Cigarette consumption suffers significant decline following price hikes

2011 saw strong price increases on tobacco products, particularly cigarettes, which saw an average unit price increase of 22%. Equally, cigarette volume sales fell by15% in 2011, despite an ingrained smoking culture.

Illicit trade jumps

Illicit trade has soared since the revolution, from 2% of total volumes sold being classed as illicit in 2010 to 17% in 2011. There have even been claims that the figure in 2011 could have been more than 20%, based on retail audits by companies. There have been reports of dozens of new counterfeit brands being sold as illicit products which can be as much as 30% cheaper than duty-paid products. As well as higher taxation driving consumers to look for cheaper alternatives, weak border controls have meant that cheap, illicit imports have flowed easily into the market.

Shisha popularity on the rise

Another unintended consequence of the tobacco tax increase has been a rise in demand for shisha, the local smoking tobacco. This product saw the highest tax increase of 100% in 2011. However, considering its low unit price before the increase, in real terms the tax increase has not given consumers much pause for thought. In fact, there has been some conversion from light cigarette smokers to shisha smoking as shisha remains cheaper than cigarettes.

Retailers struggle to maintain margins

Tobacco consumption fell significantly, despite the fact that cigarette prices had been left at such historically low levels that significant increases in percentage terms only translated into actual unit prices that were still relatively affordable. Nevertheless, small retailers and producers reported offering discounts in 2011 to try and hold on to their sales as illicit trade strongly impacted their share. These small operations cannot do this indefinitely and will soon have to resort to normal pricing or risk falling out of the market.

Cigar prices soar

Egypt’s economic problems meant that prices of imported products shot up in 2011, pushing up prices to historic highs, and by 440% for standard cigars. As these remain niche luxury products, the decline in volume sales was marginal, thus providing an indication of the category’s strong consumer base.


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Overview

Discover the latest market trends and uncover sources of future market growth for the Tobacco industry in Egypt with research from Euromonitor's team of in-country analysts.

Find hidden opportunities in the most current research data available, understand competitive threats with our detailed market analysis, and plan your corporate strategy with our expert qualitative analysis and growth projections.

If you're in the Tobacco industry in Egypt, our research will save you time and money while empowering you to make informed, profitable decisions.

When you purchase this report, you also get the data and the content from these category reports in Egypt for free:

The Tobacco in Egypt market research report includes:

  • Analysis of key supply-side and demand trends
  • Detailed segmentation of international and local products
  • Historic volumes and values, company and brand market shares
  • Five year forecasts of market trends and market growth
  • Production, imports by origin, exports by destination
  • Robust and transparent market research methodology, conducted in-country

Our market research reports answer questions such as:

  • What is the market size of Tobacco in Egypt?
  • What are the major brands in Egypt?
  • Which sector of the tobacco products market is the largest by value sales in Egypt?
  • Which sector of the tobacco products market has been growing the fastest, by volume and value, in Egypt?
  • Which sector is the most heavily taxed in Egypt?
  • Which companies dominate in the total tobacco market in Egypt in terms of market share?
  • What is the distribution channel split for the tobacco products market in Egypt?

Why buy this report?

  • Gain competitive intelligence about market leaders
  • Track key industry trends, opportunities and threats
  • Inform your marketing, brand, strategy and market development, sales and supply functions

This industry report originates from Passport, our Tobacco market research database.

Table of Contents

Table of Contents

Tobacco in Egypt - Industry Overview

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Cigarette consumption suffers significant decline following price hikes

Illicit trade jumps

Shisha popularity on the rise

Retailers struggle to maintain margins

Cigar prices soar

OPERATING ENVIRONMENT

Legislative overview/ FCTC ratification

  • Summary 1 Legislation Summary at a Glance

Minimum legal smoking age

Smoking prevalence

  • Table 1 Smoking Prevalence in Adult Population 2006-2011
  • Table 2 Number of Smokers by Gender 2006-2011

Tar levels

Health warnings

Advertising and sponsorship

Point-of-sale display bans

Smoking in public places

Low Ignition Propensity (LIP) regulation

Electronic cigarettes

Litigation

Death by cause

  • Table 3 Death by Cause 2007-2011

TAXATION AND PRICING

Duty paid packet marks

Taxation rates

  • Table 4 Taxation and Duty Levies 2006-2011

Average cigarette pack price breakdown

  • Table 5 Average Cigarette Pack Price Breakdown

PRODUCTION/IMPORTS/EXPORTS

  • Table 6 Trade Statistics – Tobacco Leaf 2007-2011

Illicit trade in cigarettes

MARKET INDICATORS

  • Table 7 Illicit Trade Estimate of Cigarettes by Volume 2006-2011

MARKET DATA

  • Table 8 Sales of Tobacco by Category: Volume 2006-2011
  • Table 9 Sales of Tobacco by Category: Value 2006-2011
  • Table 10 Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 11 Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 12 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: Volume 2011-2016
  • Table 13 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: Value 2011-2016
  • Table 14 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2011-2016
  • Table 15 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2011-2016

SOURCES

  • Summary 2 Research Sources

Tobacco in Egypt - Company Profiles

Eastern Company SAE in Tobacco (Egypt)

STRATEGIC DIRECTION

KEY FACTS

COMPANY BACKGROUND

PRODUCTION

COMPETITIVE POSITIONING

  • Summary 5 Eastern Company SAE: Competitive Position 2011

Nakhla Tobacco Co in Tobacco (Egypt)

STRATEGIC DIRECTION

KEY FACTS

COMPANY BACKGROUND

PRODUCTION

COMPETITIVE POSITIONING

  • Summary 7 Nakhla Tobacco Co: Competitive Position 2011

Cigarettes in Egypt - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • Cigarette value growth was subdued at 4% in 2011 compared to the previous year’s figure of 45% and the review period CAGR of 14%. This was due to a sudden drop in demand for cigarettes, with volumes sales falling by 15% on the previous year.

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

  • The only licensed manufacturer of cigarettes in Egypt, Eastern Company SAE, increased its unit prices in line with government tax increases. As the state remains the majority owner of the company, it was no surprise that there was little complaint from the company regarding the many changes in the legislative climate. Instead, the company asked the government for a subsidy to cope with the cost of further stamping its packaging to try and distinguish legally manufactured products in Egypt from those which are illicit.

NEW PRODUCT DEVELOPMENTS

  • Summary 8 Cigarettes - New Product Launches

DISTRIBUTION

PROSPECTS

  • The decline in cigarette sales is set to accelerate in 2012 to 16%, although this decline should then slow over the rest of the forecast period (-4% CAGR) as the category becomes saturated with illicit trade and growth in the smoking population remains at a low 1-2%.

CATEGORY BACKGROUND

Cigarettes: Price bands

  • Summary 9 Cigarette Price Band Definitions

Cigarettes: Menthol/standard

Cigarettes: Filter/non-filter

Cigarettes: Carbon/standard filter

Cigarettes: Filter length

Cigarettes: Regular vs slims vs superslims

Cigarettes: Pack size

Cigarettes: Pack type

CATEGORY DATA

  • Table 16 Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: Volume 2006-2011
  • Table 17 Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: Value 2006-2011
  • Table 18 Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: % Volume Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 19 Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: % Value Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 20 Sales of Cigarettes by Price Band: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 21 Sales of Cigarettes by Standard/Menthol: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 22 Sales of Cigarettes by Tobacco Type: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 23 Sales of Cigarettes by Filter Vs Non-filter: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 24 Sales of Filter Cigarettes by Carbon Vs Non-carbon: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 25 Sales of Cigarettes by Length: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 26 Sales of Cigarettes by Regular/Slim/Superslim: % Volume Breakdown 2007-2011
  • Table 27 Sales of Cigarettes by Pack Size: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 28 Sales of Cigarettes by Pack Type: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 29 Cigarettes Company Shares 2007-2011
  • Table 30 Cigarettes Brand Shares 2008-2011
  • Table 31 Sales of Cigarettes by Distribution Format: % Analysis 2006-2011
  • Table 32 Cigarettes: Production, Imports and Exports: Total Volume 2006-2011
  • Table 33 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: Volume 2011-2016
  • Table 34 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: Value 2011-2016
  • Table 35 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: % Volume Growth 2011-2016
  • Table 36 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: % Value Growth 2011-2016
  • Table 37 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Price Band: % Volume Breakdown 2011-2016
  • Table 38 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Standard/Menthol: % Volume Breakdown 2011-2016
  • Table 39 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tobacco Type: % Volume Breakdown 2011-2016
  • Table 40 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Filter Vs Non-filter: % Volume Breakdown 2011-2016
  • Table 41 Forecast Sales of Filter Cigarettes by Carbon Vs Non-carbon: % Volume Breakdown 2011-2016
  • Table 42 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Length: % Volume Breakdown 2011-2016
  • Table 43 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Regular/Slim/Superslim: % Volume Breakdown 2011-2016
  • Table 44 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Pack Size: % Volume Breakdown 2011-2016
  • Table 45 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Pack Type: % Volume Breakdown 2011-2016

Cigars in Egypt - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • Egypt’s economic problems meant that prices of imported products shot up dramatically in 2011, with average unit price in standard cigars, for example, rising by 440%. As these remain niche luxury items, the decline in volume sales of just 2% is an indicator of the category’s strong consumer base.

HANDMADE VERSUS MACHINE-MANUFACTURED SPLITS

  • Table 46 Sales of Cigars by Handmade vs Machine-made: % Volume/Value Breakdown 2007-2011

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

  • Eastern Company SAE remained the dominant player in cigars overall in Egypt in 2011 with a share of 58% in retail volume terms. The company has the widest distribution in cigars and also offers lower prices thanks to its use of domestic production facilities. The company’s two main brands are Verona with a 26% share and José Bartolo with 22%.

NEW PRODUCT DEVELOPMENTS

DISTRIBUTION

PROSPECTS

  • The cigar category is expected to see moderate growth over the forecast period. It has never been a particularly dynamic category, posting a review period volume CAGR of 4%, and will continue to struggle due to price hikes in 2011. Hence, over the forecast period, the category is anticipated a volume CAGR of 3%. As luxury products, cigar consumption is less affected by price increases; nevertheless, some consumers will be squeezed out of the market, hence the slowdown in volume growth.

CATEGORY DATA

  • Table 47 Sales of Cigars by Category: Volume 2006-2011
  • Table 48 Sales of Cigars by Category: Value 2006-2011
  • Table 49 Sales of Cigars by Category: % Volume Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 50 Sales of Cigars by Category: % Value Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 51 Sales of Cigars by Handmade vs Machine-manufactured: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 52 Sales of Cigars by Handmade vs Machine-manufactured: % Value Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 53 Company Shares of Cigars Excluding Cigarillos 2007-2011
  • Table 54 Brand Shares of Cigars Excluding Cigarillos 2008-2011
  • Table 55 Sales of Cigars by Distribution Format: % Analysis 2006-2011
  • Table 56 Forecast Sales of Cigars by Category: Volume 2011-2016
  • Table 57 Forecast Sales of Cigars by Category: Value 2011-2016
  • Table 58 Forecast Sales of Cigars by Category: % Volume Growth 2011-2016
  • Table 59 Forecast Sales of Cigars by Category: % Value Growth 2011-2016

Smokeless Tobacco in Egypt - Category Analysis

TRENDS

  • Sales of smokeless tobacco remained negligible in Egypt over the review period. Egyptians have no familiarity with smokeless tobacco and players are reluctant to launch such products due to consumers’ traditional preferences when it comes to buying tobacco products. These products are thus unlikely to be introduced over the forecast period.

Smoking Tobacco in Egypt - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • Smoking tobacco registered current value growth of 9% in 2011. This was far lower than the 87% gain recorded the previous year but that was largely due to price hikes following higher taxation. Volume growth was 3%, in line with the review period average. This is indicative of the importance of smoking tobacco in Egyptian society.

THE ROLE AND EFFECT OF CANNABIS/MARIJUANA

DISTRIBUTION

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

  • Smoking tobacco continued to be dominated by Eastern Company in 2011 with a 67% volume share, down slightly on the previous year. The company offers a wide range of flavours and very cheap products which appeal to the majority of consumers who smoke shisha in particular. The company is also fortunate enough to enjoy very strong brand awareness, something that is difficult for new competitors to achieve.

NEW PRODUCT DEVELOPMENTS

PROSPECTS

  • Over the forecast period smoking tobacco is anticipated a volume CAGR of 5%, up from a 3% CAGR over the review period. This performance will likely be led by the increasing shift of light smokers towards shisha smoking as cigarette prices will probably increase at a faster rate than smoking tobacco, which has much lower unit prices.

CATEGORY DATA

  • Table 60 Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: Volume 2006-2011
  • Table 61 Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: Value 2006-2011
  • Table 62 Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 63 Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 64 Company Shares of RYO Tobacco 2007-2011
  • Table 65 Brand Shares of RYO Tobacco 2008-2011
  • Table 66 Company Shares of Pipe Tobacco 2007-2011
  • Table 67 Brand Shares of Pipe Tobacco 2008-2011
  • Table 68 Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Distribution Format: % Analysis 2006-2011
  • Table 69 Forecast Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: Volume 2011-2016
  • Table 70 Forecast Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: Value 2011-2016
  • Table 71 Forecast Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2011-2016
  • Table 72 Forecast Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2011-2016

Segmentation

Segmentation

This market research report includes the following:

  • Tobacco
    • Cigarettes
      • High Tar Cigarettes
      • Mid Tar Cigarettes
      • Low Tar Cigarettes
      • Ultra Low Tar Cigarettes
    • Cigars
      • Cigars Excluding Cigarillos
        • Large Cigars
        • Standard Cigars
        • Small Cigars
      • Cigarillos
    • Smoking Tobacco
      • RYO Tobacco
      • Pipe Tobacco
    • Smokeless Tobacco
      • Chewing Tobacco
        • Asian-Style Chewing Tobacco
        • US-Style Chewing Tobacco
        • Other Chewing Tobacco
      • Snuff
        • Moist Snuff
          • US-Style Moist Snuff ('Dip')
            • Loose US-Style Moist Snuff
            • Portion US-Style Moist Snuff
          • Swedish-Style Snus
            • Loose Swedish-Style Snus
            • Portion Swedish-Style Snus
          • Asian Style Creamy Snuff
        • Dry Snuff
        • Hard Snuff
    • Cigarettes Including RYO Stick Equivalent
      • High Tar Cigarettes
      • Mid Tar Cigarettes
      • Low Tar Cigarettes
      • Ultra Low Tar Cigarettes
      • RYO Cigarettes

Statistics Included

Statistics Included

For each category and subcategory you will receive the following data in Excel format:

From Passport

  • Market sizes
  • Company shares
  • Brand shares
  • Distribution
  • Analysis by type
  • Cigarettes by blend
  • Cigarettes by carbon filter/non-carbon filter
  • Cigarettes by filtered/unfiltered
  • Cigarettes by length
  • Cigarettes by pack size
  • Cigarettes by pack type
  • Cigarettes by price band
  • Cigarettes by regular/slim/superslim
  • Cigarettes by standard/menthol
  • Illicit trade penetration
  • Pricing
  • Products by ingredient
  • Products by ingredient
  • Smoking population - number of adult smokers
  • Smoking prevalence - % of adult population
  • Taxation
  • Trade statistics - volume

Market size details:

  • Retail volume
  • Retail volume % growth
  • Retail volume per capita
  • Retail value retail selling price % growth
  • Retail value retail selling price local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Retail value retail selling price per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Illicit trade volume
  • Illicit trade volume % growth
  • Illicit trade volume per capita
  • Retail volume (sticks)
  • Retail volume (sticks) % growth
  • Retail volume (sticks) per capita
  • Retail plus illicit trade
  • Retail plus illicit trade % growth
  • Retail plus illicit trade per capita

Methodology

Methodology

Global insight and local knowledge

With 40 years’ experience of developed and emerging markets, Euromonitor International’s research method is built on a unique combination of specialist industry knowledge and in-country research expertise.

This approach is what enables us to achieve our goal of building a market consensus view of size, shape and trends across the full distribution universe of each category. We factor in whichever channels are relevant, from large-scale grocery to direct sellers, from discount stores to local mom-and-pop outlets.

Industry specialists

Each industry we cover is managed by an Industry Manager and team of Industry Analysts who research and report on their specialist categories all year round.

Our collaborative approach to research means that these industry teams are in constant dialogue with industry players and opinion formers. The planning of our research programmes reflects latest market trends and industry events. In completing each update project, this provides invaluable input to the testing, review and finalisation of our data.

The specialist in-house teams bring together findings from all stages of the annual research process. They work closely with in-country analysts, assess and challenge data and exercise final editorial control over the publication of new data and analysis.

Country and regional analysts

Our in-country analyst network is managed by country and regional analysts in our offices around the world. Working closely with each in-country team, the regional research management team ensures that all country researchers are well schooled in best practices, from the information collected in store checks, to the dialogue we build in trade surveys. Our country analysts ensure that national reports explain the data trends and provide clear insights into the local market’s dynamics.

In-country research network

To deliver fresh insights every year in countries all around the world, we believe the strongest approach is to use analysts on the ground. They bring fluency in local language, physical proximity to the best sources, an ability to engage directly with local industry contacts, and an awareness of how the products and services we study are advertised, sold and consumed. These are essential parts of our ability to report incisively on these markets.

Research Methodology

Our research methods

Each Euromonitor International industry report is based on a core set of research techniques:

Desk research

With industry events, corporate activity, trends and new product introductions tracked year round by our industry team, desk research provides a starting point for the in-country research programme. Our in-country researchers will access the following sources:

  • National statistics offices governmental and official sources
  • National and international trade press
  • National and international trade associations
  • Industry study groups and other semi-official sources
  • Company financials and annual reports
  • Broker reports
  • Online databases
  • The financial, business and mainstream press

Accessing sources is only the first step. The ability to interpret and reconcile often conflicting information across multiple sources is a key aspect of the added value we provide.

Store checks

Store checks are an integral part of our methods for product industries. Carried out on the ground across a relevant mix of channels, the information gained provides first-hand insights into the products we are researching, specifically:

  • Place: We track products in all relevant channels, selective and mass, store and non-store
  • Product: What are innovations in products, pack sizes and formats?
  • Price: What are brand price variations across channels, how do private label’s prices compare to those of branded goods?
  • Promotion: What are marketing and merchandising trends, offers, discounts and tie-ins?

Findings are cross-referenced with brand share data analysis. The results, combined with the findings of desk research, provide a strong basis for identifying key areas of questioning to take forward into our trade survey.

Trade survey

Interaction with global players at corporate HQ and regional levels is complemented by unique local data and insights from our in-country trade surveys around the world. Through the high profile of the Euromonitor International brand, we are able to talk directly to a wide range of sources and therefore inform our analysis with the knowledge and opinions of the leading operators in the market.

Trade surveys allow us to:

  • Fill gaps in available published data per company
  • Generate a consensus view of the size, structure and strategic direction of the category
  • Access year-in-progress data where published sources are out of date
  • Evaluate the experts’ views on current trends and market developments

In building our composite industry view, we engage with a variety of personnel in key players at all points of the supply chain: materials suppliers, manufacturers, distributors, retailers and service operators. We also interview desk research sources: industry associations; study groups; and third party observers from the trade and financial press.

Our objective is to engage in conversation with trade sources in which we exchange ideas and views on the industry, sharing our work-in-progress findings on supply/demand dynamics and potential. This dialogue enhances both parties’ understanding of the local market. The scope and reach of our trade survey also serves to eliminate bias (intentional and unintentional) from any single source.

Company analysis

At a global level, our company research combines our mix of industry interaction and use of secondary sources such as annual accounts, broker reports, financial press and databases. From a data perspective, the aim is to build “top-down” estimates of major players’ total global and regional sales.

At a country level, in line with local reporting requirements, we access annual accounts, national-specific company databases and local company websites. These are all invaluable sources as we build a view of each domestic player’s size and position within very specific categories of the industry.

Forecasts

Data projections and future performance analysis are key elements of Euromonitor International’s market intelligence. Working with historic trends of 15 years or more, a key aspect of our trade survey is to engage industry insider views of the next five years. Will volumes maintain their historic trend? Will price increases or falls of recent years continue, accelerate or slow down? Will increasing demand for one product cannibalise sales of another?

Forecasts represent many of the essential conclusions we have reached about the current state of the market, how it works and how it behaves under different macro and micro conditions. Our written analysis will state the assumptions and the trade opinion behind whether our predictions are optimistic or pessimistic, so that clients can use our statistical forecasts with confidence.

Data validation

All data is subjected to an exhaustive review process, at country, regional and global levels.

The interpretation and review of sources and data inputs forms a central part of the collaboration between industry teams and country researchers. Numbers are delivered to regional and global offices with an audit trail of sources and calculations to allow for a thorough evaluation of data sense and integrity.

Upon completion of the country review phase, data is then reviewed on a comparative basis at regional and then at a global level. Comparative checks are carried out on per capita consumption and spending levels, growth rates, patterns of category and subcategory breakdowns and distribution of sales by channel. Top-down estimates are reviewed against bottom-up regional and global market and company sales totals.

Where marked differences are seen between proximate country markets or ones at similar developmental levels, supplementary research is conducted in the relevant countries to confirm and/or amend those findings. This process ensures international comparability across the database, that consistent category and subcategory definitions have been used and that all data has been correctly tested. We make sure that possible discrepancies between different published sources have been reconciled and that our interpretation of opinion and expectation from each country’s trade sources has been applied to form a coherent international pattern.

Market analysis

Another integral part of all our research programmes is that all Euromonitor International data is accompanied by clear written analysis. From a research perspective, this explains and substantiates data findings. From a client perspective, this offers unique insights into local consumption trends, routes to market, brand preferences, channel dynamics and future trends.

Our country level analysis also provides invaluable input into the ability of our central industry specialist teams to marry local insights with strategic conclusions on the direction of the market regionally and globally.

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