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Country Report

Tobacco in Finland

Jul 2011

Price: $1,900

About this Report

About this Report

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Overview

Discover the latest market trends and uncover sources of future market growth for the Tobacco industry in Finland with research from Euromonitor's team of in-country analysts.

Find hidden opportunities in the most current research data available, understand competitive threats with our detailed market analysis, and plan your corporate strategy with our expert qualitative analysis and growth projections.

If you're in the Tobacco industry in Finland, our research will save you time and money while empowering you to make informed, profitable decisions.

When you purchase this report, you also get the data and the content from these category reports in Finland for free:

The Tobacco in Finland market research report includes:

  • Analysis of key supply-side and demand trends
  • Detailed segmentation of international and local products
  • Historic volumes and values, company and brand market shares
  • Five year forecasts of market trends and market growth
  • Production, imports by origin, exports by destination
  • Robust and transparent market research methodology, conducted in-country

Our market research reports answer questions such as:

  • What is the market size of Tobacco in Finland?
  • What are the major brands in Finland?
  • Which sector of the tobacco products market is the largest by value sales in Finland?
  • Which sector of the tobacco products market has been growing the fastest, by volume and value, in Finland?
  • Which sector is the most heavily taxed in Finland?
  • Which companies dominate in the total tobacco market in Finland in terms of market share?
  • What is the distribution channel split for the tobacco products market in Finland?

Why buy this report?

  • Gain competitive intelligence about market leaders
  • Track key industry trends, opportunities and threats
  • Inform your marketing, brand, strategy and market development, sales and supply functions

This industry report originates from Passport, our Tobacco market research database.

Sample Analysis

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Value sales decline due to increased competition in 2010

While volume sales continued to slowly decline, previously positive value growth turned negative in 2010. This was due to increased competition within cigarettes in Finland. The tax increase of 2010 was absorbed by the cigarette industry. For the first time in years there were clear signs of price competition and the leading brand L&M even lowered its unit price during 2010.

Changes in operating environment profoundly impact the market

Amendments to tobacco legislation in Finland continued to have a strong impact on tobacco sales. The smoking ban, which started to affect volume sales during the review period, continued to do so in 2010. The smoking ban in public spaces was accepted as the norm by both non-smokers and smokers alike. In addition to limiting areas for smoking, tobacco taxes were raised in 2009 and 2010. Consumer price-sensitivity increased and manufacturers of mid-priced and premium cigarettes were the most affected. The number of launches of new products slowed down as manufacturers tried to minimise risk by strengthening the positions of their leading brands.

Economy cigarettes gain share

Economy cigarettes saw significant growth during 2009 and 2010. Consumers became more price-sensitive as unit prices continued to rise due to tax increases. The fact that the government decided to tax RYO tobacco more than other tobacco variants also helped to boost sales of economy cigarettes. RYO tobacco in Finland has been a low-cost substitute for cigarettes and as the prices of the cheapest cigarettes become similar to those of RYO tobacco, there has been migration between the two categories. In addition, the economic downturn helped to increase the sales of low-priced brands.

Supermarket/hypermarket channel leads sales, but the internet has potential

Grocery retailers held the highest share of tobacco sales in Finland in 2010, enjoying a share of 96% in cigarettes and less in other categories. This is due to the fact that tobacco products are widely available in the grocery channel. However, since 2009, tobacco selling outlets have needed a licence. Tobacco specialists are important mainly in terms of cigar sales. This channel can expect to see some growth from 2012 onwards when the retail display of tobacco products will become illegal except in tobacco specialists. The law change in 2012 is also expected to lead to an increase in internet sales. A higher number of consumers will be looking for information online and while doing so will be more likely to make purchases through the online channel.

Smokeless Finland 2040 challenges the tobacco market

The Finnish government has declared that it aims to end smoking in Finland by 2040. In addition to measures already in place (smoking bans, tax increases), the next legal restriction on cigarette distribution will be a display ban on all tobacco products sold in Finland. There is a possibility that due to no visibility, the size of the market will stagnate and new competitors and products will find it difficult to be noticed. One of the major objectives is to curb the smoking of youngsters. There are also plans to offer support to smokers wishing to quit the habit. The measures taken by the Finnish government will ensure a decreasing number of smokers in Finland. However, it remains to be seen how quickly the impact will be felt.

Table of Contents

Table of Contents

Tobacco in Finland - Industry Overview

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Value sales decline due to increased competition in 2010

Changes in operating environment profoundly impact the market

Economy cigarettes gain share

Supermarket/hypermarket channel leads sales, but the internet has potential

Smokeless Finland 2040 challenges the tobacco market

OPERATING ENVIRONMENT

Legislative overview/ FCTC ratification

  • Summary 1 Legislation Summary at a Glance

Country-specific legislation:

Minimum legal smoking age

Smoking Prevalence

  • Table 1 Smoking Prevalence in Adult Population 2005-2010
  • Table 2 Number of Smokers by Gender 2005-2010

Tar levels

Health warnings

Advertising & Sponsorship

Point-of-sale Display Bans

Smoking in public places

Low Ignition Propensity (LIP) regulation

Electronic cigarettes

Litigation

Death by Cause

  • Table 3 Death by Cause 2005-2010

TAXATION AND PRICING

Duty paid packet marks

Taxation rates

  • Table 4 Taxation and Duty Levies 2005-2010: Cigarettes
  • Table 5 Taxation and Duty Levies 2005-2010: RYO tobacco
  • Table 6 Taxation and Duty Levies 2005-2010: Pipe tobacco
  • Table 7 Taxation and Duty Levies 2005-2010: Cigars

Average cigarette pack price breakdown

  • Table 8 Average Cigarette Pack Price Breakdown: Brand Examples 2010

PRODUCTION/IMPORTS/EXPORTS

  • Table 9 Production/Imports/Exports 2005-2010

Illicit trade in cigarettes

MARKET INDICATORS

  • Table 10 Illicit Trade Estimate of Cigarettes by Volume 2005-2010

MARKET DATA

  • Table 11 Sales of Tobacco by Category: Volume 2005-2010
  • Table 12 Sales of Tobacco by Category: Value 2005-2010
  • Table 13 Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 14 Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 15 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: Volume 2010-2015
  • Table 16 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: Value 2010-2015
  • Table 17 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2010-2015
  • Table 18 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2010-2015

DEFINITIONS

  • Summary 2 Research Sources

Tobacco in Finland - Company Profiles

British American Tobacco Finland Oy in Tobacco (Finland)

STRATEGIC DIRECTION

KEY FACTS

COMPANY BACKGROUND

PRODUCTION

COMPETITIVE POSITIONING

  • Summary 5 British American Tobacco Finland Oy: Competitive Position 2010

Imperial Tobacco Finland Oy in Tobacco (Finland)

STRATEGIC DIRECTION

KEY FACTS

COMPANY BACKGROUND

PRODUCTION

COMPETITIVE POSITIONING

  • Summary 8 Imperial Tobacco Finland Oy: Competitive Position 2010

Philip Morris Finland Oy in Tobacco (Finland)

STRATEGIC DIRECTION

KEY FACTS

COMPANY BACKGROUND

PRODUCTION

COMPETITIVE POSITIONING

  • Summary 11 Philip Morris Finland Oy: Competitive Position 2010

Cigarettes in Finland - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • The volume share of economy brands grew notably in 2010, reaching 22%, up from 18% a year earlier. There have been several reasons behind this development. Firstly, growth of the segment was already strong in 2008/2009 due to the economic downturn. In addition, due to continuous rises in tobacco tax, unit prices increased significantly during the last few years of the review period. It became clear that unit prices of over €4.50 per pack of 20 sticks were becoming too high for consumers, with price-sensitivity increasing. As a result, brand loyalty declined and consumers started to opt for more affordable alternatives. Secondly, the fact that tobacco taxation was raised most heavily for RYO tobacco meant that some RYO consumers also shifted to economy cigarettes.

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

  • Cigarettes are mostly sold in store-based retail outlets. Any retailer can apply for a licence to sell cigarettes. As the number of licences is not restricted, most grocery retail outlets sell cigarettes. The concentration of the retail channel means that only the largest manufacturers of cigarettes are able to get their products into the main sales outlets.

NEW PRODUCT DEVELOPMENTS

  • Summary 12 Cigarettes - New Product Launches

DISTRIBUTION

PROSPECTS

  • The forecast period will see cigarettes post a further volume CAGR decline of 2%. This will be the result of more Finns giving up smoking. Male smoking prevalence, historically notably higher than that of women, will see a decline, from 23% in 2010 to 20.7% in 2015. While female smoking prevalence will also decline, the drop will be much lower, from 15.6% in 2010 to 14.9% in 2015. The category is also expected to register a constant value CAGR decline of 1%, a drop on the 0.2% CAGR of the review period.

SECTOR BACKGROUND

Cigarettes: Price Bands

  • Summary 13 Cigarette Price Band Definitions

Cigarettes: Menthol/standard

Cigarettes: Filter/non-filter

Cigarettes: Carbon/standard filter

Cigarettes: Filter length

Cigarettes: Slims/superslims vs regular

Cigarettes: Pack size

Cigarettes: Pack type

CATEGORY DATA

  • Table 19 Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: Volume 2005-2010
  • Table 20 Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: Value 2005-2010
  • Table 21 Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: % Volume Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 22 Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: % Value Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 23 Sales of Cigarettes by Price Band: % Volume Breakdown 2005-2010
  • Table 24 Sales of Cigarettes by Standard/Menthol: % Volume Breakdown 2005-2010
  • Table 25 Sales of Cigarettes by Tobacco Type: % Volume Breakdown 2005-2010
  • Table 26 Sales of Cigarettes by Filter Vs Non-filter: % Volume Breakdown 2005-2010
  • Table 27 Sales of Filter Cigarettes by Carbon Vs Non-carbon: % Volume Breakdown 2005-2010
  • Table 28 Sales of Cigarettes by Length: % Volume Breakdown 2005-2010
  • Table 29 Sales of Cigarettes by Regular/Slim: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2010
  • Table 30 Sales of Cigarettes by Pack Size: % Volume Breakdown 2005-2010
  • Table 31 Sales of Cigarettes by Pack Type: % Volume Breakdown 2005-2010
  • Table 32 Cigarettes Company Shares 2006-2010
  • Table 33 Cigarettes Brand Shares 2007-2010
  • Table 34 Sales of Cigarettes by Distribution Format: % Analysis 2005-2010
  • Table 35 Cigarettes: Production, Imports and Exports: Total Volume 2005-2010
  • Table 36 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: Volume 2010-2015
  • Table 37 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: Value 2010-2015
  • Table 38 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: % Volume Growth 2010-2015
  • Table 39 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: % Value Growth 2010-2015
  • Table 40 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Price Band: % Volume Breakdown 2010-2015
  • Table 41 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Standard/Menthol: % Volume Breakdown 2010-2015
  • Table 42 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tobacco Type: % Volume Breakdown 2010-2015
  • Table 43 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Filter Vs Non-filter: % Volume Breakdown 2010-2015
  • Table 44 Forecast Sales of Filter Cigarettes by Carbon Vs Non-carbon: % Volume Breakdown 2010-2015
  • Table 45 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Length: % Volume Breakdown 2010-2015
  • Table 46 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Regular/Slim: % Volume Breakdown 2010-2015
  • Table 47 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Pack Size: % Volume Breakdown 2010-2015
  • Table 48 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Pack Type: % Volume Breakdown 2010-2015

Cigars in Finland - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • Consumption of cigars and cigarillos is connected with urban lifestyles, and they are considered luxury items. Finns are traditionally rather modest. Whilst previously cigars and cigarillos were considered, for example, an excellent conclusion to a restaurant or festive meal, quicker-to-smoke cigarillos were found to be a better option following the indoor smoking ban which came into force in 2007 and forced smokers outside into the unpredictable Nordic climate. Cigars and cigarillos are also considered somewhat healthier as smokers consume them mainly as a special treat, whilst cigarette smokers tend to smoke several cigarettes a day. They are also considered more natural and are inhaled less deeply.

HANDMADE VERSUS MACHINE MANUFACTURED SPLITS

  • Table 49 Sales of Cigars by Handmade vs Machine-manufactured 2006-2010

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

  • Cigars and cigarillos in Finland is dominated by three big players – Swedish Match AB, Imperial Tobacco Finland Oy and British American Tobacco Finland Oy. These companies held volume shares of 45%, 26% and 21%, respectively, in 2010. Only companies that are involved in the sale of cigarillos are able to gain significant share. This is mainly because cigarillos dominate category sales. Cigarillos, unlike cigars, are also distributed via grocery retailers while cigar sales are concentrated on tobacco specialists.

NEW PRODUCT DEVELOPMENTS

  • Summary 14 Cigars and Cigarillos - New Product Launches

DISTRIBUTION

PROSPECTS

  • Cigars and cigarillos is expected to register a CAGR of 2% in volume terms and 3% in constant value terms over the forecast period.

CATEGORY DATA

  • Table 50 Sales of Cigars by Category: Volume 2005-2010
  • Table 51 Sales of Cigars by Category: Value 2005-2010
  • Table 52 Sales of Cigars by Category: % Volume Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 53 Sales of Cigars by Category: % Value Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 54 Sales of Cigars by Handmade vs Machine Manufactured: % Volume Breakdown 2005-2010
  • Table 55 Company Shares of Cigars Excluding Cigarillos 2006-2010
  • Table 56 Brand Shares of Cigars Excluding Cigarillos 2007-2010
  • Table 57 Company Shares of Cigarillos 2006-2010
  • Table 58 Brand Shares of Cigarillos 2007-2010
  • Table 59 Sales of Cigars by Distribution Format: % Analysis 2005-2010
  • Table 60 Forecast Sales of Cigars by Category: Volume 2010-2015
  • Table 61 Forecast Sales of Cigars by Category: Value 2010-2015
  • Table 62 Forecast Sales of Cigars by Category: % Volume Growth 2010-2015
  • Table 63 Forecast Sales of Cigars by Category: % Value Growth 2010-2015

Smokeless Tobacco in Finland - Category Analysis

TRENDS

  • The sale of most smoking tobacco is illegal in Finland. Only nasal snuff smokeless tobacco can be sold in Finland, but its usage is minimal.

Smoking Tobacco in Finland - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • The consumption of smoking tobacco is heavily concentrated on RYO tobacco – 98% of smoking tobacco volume sales are accounted for by RYO, with pipe tobacco accounting for the remaining 2% share. First of all, RYO has been a substitute for cigarettes which have historically had notably higher unit prices. Cheaper prices have attracted the most price-sensitive consumers to RYO tobacco. As a result, within RYO tobacco, the most successful brands have been those with low unit prices. Pipe tobacco tends to have a rather stable customer base, consisting mostly of older male consumers. Pipe tobacco does not appeal to young consumers. Although some younger Finns enjoy a pipe, only a handful smoke a pipe on a regular basis.

The Role and Effect of Cannabis/Marijuana

DISTRIBUTION

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

  • Imperial Tobacco Finland Oy dominates smoking tobacco in Finland, commanding a volume share of 83% in 2010, up half a percentage point on the previous year. This strong position of Imperial Tobacco is due to the fact that it is the only one of the big multinational players which offers several of its key brands in RYO tobacco. The economy brands Bonus and Smart both have strong positions and several variants in the marketplace. The company also offers the Aroma brand. Philip Morris Finland Oy and British American Tobacco Finland Oy ranked second and third, holding volume shares of 7% and 3%, respectively, in 2010.

NEW PRODUCT DEVELOPMENTS

  • Summary 15 Smoking tobacco - New Product Launches

PROSPECTS

  • Smoking tobacco is set to witness a further volume decline over the forecast period. The category is expected to register a CAGR decline of 3%. This decline will be stronger than that of the review period. This performance will be directly linked to the government’s decision to decrease the sales of RYO tobacco that consumers with the least disposable income are buying. 2009 higher taxes were imposed to smoking tobacco and in the future the taxes may also be increased more than for other tobacco products. Since 2009, this has resulted in a number of consumers opting for economy cigarettes, a trend which is expected to continue.

CATEGORY DATA

  • Table 64 Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: Volume 2005-2010
  • Table 65 Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: Value 2005-2010
  • Table 66 Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 67 Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 68 Company Shares of RYO Tobacco 2006-2010
  • Table 69 Brand Shares of RYO Tobacco 2007-2010
  • Table 70 Company Shares of Pipe Tobacco 2006-2010
  • Table 71 Brand Shares of Pipe Tobacco 2007-2010
  • Table 72 Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Distribution Format: % Analysis 2005-2010
  • Table 73 Forecast Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: Volume 2010-2015
  • Table 74 Forecast Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: Value 2010-2015
  • Table 75 Forecast Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2010-2015
  • Table 76 Forecast Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2010-2015

Segmentation

Segmentation

This market research report includes the following:

  • Tobacco
    • Cigarettes
      • High Tar Cigarettes
      • Mid Tar Cigarettes
      • Low Tar Cigarettes
      • Ultra Low Tar Cigarettes
    • Cigars
      • Cigars Excluding Cigarillos
        • Large Cigars
        • Standard Cigars
        • Small Cigars
      • Cigarillos
    • Smoking Tobacco
      • RYO Tobacco
      • Pipe Tobacco
    • Smokeless Tobacco
      • Chewing Tobacco
        • Asian-Style Chewing Tobacco
        • US-Style Chewing Tobacco
        • Other Chewing Tobacco
      • Snuff
        • Moist Snuff
          • US-Style Moist Snuff ('Dip')
            • Loose US-Style Moist Snuff
            • Portion US-Style Moist Snuff
          • Swedish-Style Snus
            • Loose Swedish-Style Snus
            • Portion Swedish-Style Snus
          • Asian Style Creamy Snuff
        • Dry Snuff
        • Hard Snuff
    • Cigarettes Including RYO Stick Equivalent
      • High Tar Cigarettes
      • Mid Tar Cigarettes
      • Low Tar Cigarettes
      • Ultra Low Tar Cigarettes
      • RYO Cigarettes

Statistics Included

Statistics Included

For each category and subcategory you will receive the following data in Excel format:

From Passport

  • Market sizes
  • Company shares
  • Brand shares
  • Distribution
  • Analysis by type
  • Cigarettes by blend
  • Cigarettes by carbon filter/non-carbon filter
  • Cigarettes by filtered/unfiltered
  • Cigarettes by length
  • Cigarettes by pack size
  • Cigarettes by pack type
  • Cigarettes by price band
  • Cigarettes by regular/slim
  • Cigarettes by standard/menthol
  • Illicit trade penetration
  • Pricing
  • Products by ingredient
  • Products by ingredient
  • Smoking population - number of adult smokers
  • Smoking prevalence - % of adult population
  • Taxation
  • Trade statistics - volume

Market size details:

  • Retail volume
  • Retail volume % growth
  • Retail volume per capita
  • Retail value retail selling price % growth
  • Retail value retail selling price local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Retail value retail selling price per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Retail value retail selling price real (constant 2008) prices % growth
  • Retail value retail selling price real (constant 2008) prices local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Retail value retail selling price real (constant 2008) prices per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Illicit trade volume
  • Illicit trade volume % growth
  • Illicit trade volume per capita
  • Retail volume (sticks)
  • Retail volume (sticks) % growth
  • Retail volume (sticks) per capita
  • Retail value retail selling price nominal (current) prices % growth
  • Retail value retail selling price nominal (current) prices local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Retail value retail selling price nominal (current) prices per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Retail plus illicit trade
  • Retail plus illicit trade % growth
  • Retail plus illicit trade per capita

Methodology

Methodology

Global insight and local knowledge

With 40 years’ experience of developed and emerging markets, Euromonitor International’s research method is built on a unique combination of specialist industry knowledge and in-country research expertise.

This approach is what enables us to achieve our goal of building a market consensus view of size, shape and trends across the full distribution universe of each category. We factor in whichever channels are relevant, from large-scale grocery to direct sellers, from discount stores to local mom-and-pop outlets.

Industry specialists

Each industry we cover is managed by an Industry Manager and team of Industry Analysts who research and report on their specialist categories all year round.

Our collaborative approach to research means that these industry teams are in constant dialogue with industry players and opinion formers. The planning of our research programmes reflects latest market trends and industry events. In completing each update project, this provides invaluable input to the testing, review and finalisation of our data.

The specialist in-house teams bring together findings from all stages of the annual research process. They work closely with in-country analysts, assess and challenge data and exercise final editorial control over the publication of new data and analysis.

Country and regional analysts

Our in-country analyst network is managed by country and regional analysts in our offices around the world. Working closely with each in-country team, the regional research management team ensures that all country researchers are well schooled in best practices, from the information collected in store checks, to the dialogue we build in trade surveys. Our country analysts ensure that national reports explain the data trends and provide clear insights into the local market’s dynamics.

In-country research network

To deliver fresh insights every year in countries all around the world, we believe the strongest approach is to use analysts on the ground. They bring fluency in local language, physical proximity to the best sources, an ability to engage directly with local industry contacts, and an awareness of how the products and services we study are advertised, sold and consumed. These are essential parts of our ability to report incisively on these markets.

Research Methodology

Our research methods

Each Euromonitor International industry report is based on a core set of research techniques:

Desk research

With industry events, corporate activity, trends and new product introductions tracked year round by our industry team, desk research provides a starting point for the in-country research programme. Our in-country researchers will access the following sources:

  • National statistics offices governmental and official sources
  • National and international trade press
  • National and international trade associations
  • Industry study groups and other semi-official sources
  • Company financials and annual reports
  • Broker reports
  • Online databases
  • The financial, business and mainstream press

Accessing sources is only the first step. The ability to interpret and reconcile often conflicting information across multiple sources is a key aspect of the added value we provide.

Store checks

Store checks are an integral part of our methods for product industries. Carried out on the ground across a relevant mix of channels, the information gained provides first-hand insights into the products we are researching, specifically:

  • Place: We track products in all relevant channels, selective and mass, store and non-store
  • Product: What are innovations in products, pack sizes and formats?
  • Price: What are brand price variations across channels, how do private label’s prices compare to those of branded goods?
  • Promotion: What are marketing and merchandising trends, offers, discounts and tie-ins?

Findings are cross-referenced with brand share data analysis. The results, combined with the findings of desk research, provide a strong basis for identifying key areas of questioning to take forward into our trade survey.

Trade survey

Interaction with global players at corporate HQ and regional levels is complemented by unique local data and insights from our in-country trade surveys around the world. Through the high profile of the Euromonitor International brand, we are able to talk directly to a wide range of sources and therefore inform our analysis with the knowledge and opinions of the leading operators in the market.

Trade surveys allow us to:

  • Fill gaps in available published data per company
  • Generate a consensus view of the size, structure and strategic direction of the category
  • Access year-in-progress data where published sources are out of date
  • Evaluate the experts’ views on current trends and market developments

In building our composite industry view, we engage with a variety of personnel in key players at all points of the supply chain: materials suppliers, manufacturers, distributors, retailers and service operators. We also interview desk research sources: industry associations; study groups; and third party observers from the trade and financial press.

Our objective is to engage in conversation with trade sources in which we exchange ideas and views on the industry, sharing our work-in-progress findings on supply/demand dynamics and potential. This dialogue enhances both parties’ understanding of the local market. The scope and reach of our trade survey also serves to eliminate bias (intentional and unintentional) from any single source.

Company analysis

At a global level, our company research combines our mix of industry interaction and use of secondary sources such as annual accounts, broker reports, financial press and databases. From a data perspective, the aim is to build “top-down” estimates of major players’ total global and regional sales.

At a country level, in line with local reporting requirements, we access annual accounts, national-specific company databases and local company websites. These are all invaluable sources as we build a view of each domestic player’s size and position within very specific categories of the industry.

Forecasts

Data projections and future performance analysis are key elements of Euromonitor International’s market intelligence. Working with historic trends of 15 years or more, a key aspect of our trade survey is to engage industry insider views of the next five years. Will volumes maintain their historic trend? Will price increases or falls of recent years continue, accelerate or slow down? Will increasing demand for one product cannibalise sales of another?

Forecasts represent many of the essential conclusions we have reached about the current state of the market, how it works and how it behaves under different macro and micro conditions. Our written analysis will state the assumptions and the trade opinion behind whether our predictions are optimistic or pessimistic, so that clients can use our statistical forecasts with confidence.

Data validation

All data is subjected to an exhaustive review process, at country, regional and global levels.

The interpretation and review of sources and data inputs forms a central part of the collaboration between industry teams and country researchers. Numbers are delivered to regional and global offices with an audit trail of sources and calculations to allow for a thorough evaluation of data sense and integrity.

Upon completion of the country review phase, data is then reviewed on a comparative basis at regional and then at a global level. Comparative checks are carried out on per capita consumption and spending levels, growth rates, patterns of category and subcategory breakdowns and distribution of sales by channel. Top-down estimates are reviewed against bottom-up regional and global market and company sales totals.

Where marked differences are seen between proximate country markets or ones at similar developmental levels, supplementary research is conducted in the relevant countries to confirm and/or amend those findings. This process ensures international comparability across the database, that consistent category and subcategory definitions have been used and that all data has been correctly tested. We make sure that possible discrepancies between different published sources have been reconciled and that our interpretation of opinion and expectation from each country’s trade sources has been applied to form a coherent international pattern.

Market analysis

Another integral part of all our research programmes is that all Euromonitor International data is accompanied by clear written analysis. From a research perspective, this explains and substantiates data findings. From a client perspective, this offers unique insights into local consumption trends, routes to market, brand preferences, channel dynamics and future trends.

Our country level analysis also provides invaluable input into the ability of our central industry specialist teams to marry local insights with strategic conclusions on the direction of the market regionally and globally.

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