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Country Report

Tobacco in Georgia

Oct 2012

Price: US$1,900

About this Report

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Cigaretteconsumption declines inthereviewperiod

In the review period the tobacco market in Georgia saw a reduction of illicit trade volume and a lesser reduction of legal sales resulting in the gradual reduction of cigarette consumption as a whole. The reduction in illicit trade volume resulted from the government’s decisive steps to strengthen customs control, blocking channels of illegal production and distribution.The overall reduction in consumption reflects the increasing awareness of potential consumers that cigarette smoking is harmful to health. Due to these two trends,volume sales of cigarettes were reduced overall, though legal sales fared better than illicit ones.

Georgians are turning to lighter cigarettes

In spite of the tarcontent limits in cigarettes to 10mg, cigarettes with a tar content of 12mg had been sold openly in Georgia. By the middle of the review period the situation started to change. Cigarettes with higher tar content than 10mg began to disappear gradually from sales. Their import as well as local manufacturing saw a steep decline. Accordingly, if in 2009 cigarettes with tar content above 10mg were sold more freely, in 2010 regular sales of these cigarettes barely existed (what was sold were products left in stocks and their sales carried a semi-legal character), and in 2011 high-tar cigarettes totallydisappeared from sales. This was the result of changing consumer patterns under influence of the healthy trend and consumers’ aspiration to reduce the harmfulness of cigarettes to their health. Naturally, this led to increased share of light cigarettes.

Growth of importscauses decline of domestic production in 2011

In 2011 local production greatly decreased in Georgiaas imports increased. The reason behind is that there was practically no difference in the excise tax on local and imported tobacco products. Previously, the excise tax on local products was lower than the import, but since 2011local production lost this advantage. Accordingly, in 2011, local production decreased considerably, whilst imports increased significantly.

Distribution patterns remain unchanged in 2011

Independent small grocers were the main distribution channel for tobacco products in Georgia in 2011. However, tobacco specialists dominated retail distribution of cigars and cigarillos and smoking tobacco. Independent small grocers and other small grocery retailers are very widely established across Georgia. In particular they are popular in rural areas of the country. Tobacco specialists is the main distribution channel for cigars, cigarillos and smoking tobacco. This is due to the current legislation, as the sale of these products in newsagent-tobacconists/kiosks and other non-grocery retail outlets is prohibited. Internet retailing gained some share of cigars, cigarillos and smoking tobacco in 2011.

Growth of share of low-tar cigarettes while common sales drop over the forecast period

Over the forecast period, the main trend in cigarettes will be furtherconsumer switch to lighter cigarettes and as a result the decline of mid-tar cigarettes share and increase of low and ultra-low-tar cigarettes volume sales.The main reason will be continuation of healthy lifestyle promotion and thus the desire of consumers to reduce the negative influence of cigarettes to their health.


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Overview

Discover the latest market trends and uncover sources of future market growth for the Tobacco industry in Georgia with research from Euromonitor's team of in-country analysts.

Find hidden opportunities in the most current research data available, understand competitive threats with our detailed market analysis, and plan your corporate strategy with our expert qualitative analysis and growth projections.

If you're in the Tobacco industry in Georgia, our research will save you time and money while empowering you to make informed, profitable decisions.

When you purchase this report, you also get the data and the content from these category reports in Georgia for free:

The Tobacco in Georgia market research report includes:

  • Analysis of key supply-side and demand trends
  • Detailed segmentation of international and local products
  • Historic volumes and values, company and brand market shares
  • Five year forecasts of market trends and market growth
  • Production, imports by origin, exports by destination
  • Robust and transparent market research methodology, conducted in-country

Our market research reports answer questions such as:

  • What is the market size of Tobacco in Georgia?
  • What are the major brands in Georgia?
  • Which sector of the tobacco products market is the largest by value sales in Georgia?
  • Which sector of the tobacco products market has been growing the fastest, by volume and value, in Georgia?
  • Which sector is the most heavily taxed in Georgia?
  • Which companies dominate in the total tobacco market in Georgia in terms of market share?
  • What is the distribution channel split for the tobacco products market in Georgia?

Why buy this report?

  • Gain competitive intelligence about market leaders
  • Track key industry trends, opportunities and threats
  • Inform your marketing, brand, strategy and market development, sales and supply functions

This industry report originates from Passport, our Tobacco market research database.

Table of Contents

Table of Contents

Tobacco in Georgia - Industry Overview

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Cigaretteconsumption declines inthereviewperiod

Georgians are turning to lighter cigarettes

Growth of importscauses decline of domestic production in 2011

Distribution patterns remain unchanged in 2011

Growth of share of low-tar cigarettes while common sales drop over the forecast period

OPERATING ENVIRONMENT

Legislation

  • Summary 1 Legislation Summary at a Glance

The Law on Tobacco Control in Georgia

Minimum legal smoking age

Smoking prevalence

  • Table 1 Smoking Prevalence in Adult Population 2006-2011
  • Table 2 Number of Smokers by Gender 2006-2011

Tar levels

Health warnings

Advertising and sponsorship

Point-of-sale display bans

Smoking in public places

Low ignition propensity (LIP) regulation

“Reduced harm”

Electronic cigarettes

Litigation

Death by cause

  • Table 3 Death by Cause 2007-2011

TAXATION AND PRICING

Duty-paid packet marks

Taxation rates

  • Summary 2 Taxation and Duty Levies 2006-2011

Average cigarette pack price breakdown

  • Table 4 Average Cigarette Pack Price Breakdown: Brand Examples

PRODUCTION/IMPORTS/EXPORTS

  • Table 5 Trade Statistics – Tobacco Leaf 2007-2011

Illicit trade in cigarettes

MARKET INDICATORS

  • Table 6 Illicit Trade Estimate of Cigarettes by Volume 2006-2011

MARKET DATA

  • Table 7 Sales of Tobacco by Category: Volume 2006-2011
  • Table 8 Sales of Tobacco by Category: Value 2006-2011
  • Table 9 Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 10 Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 11 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: Volume 2011-2016
  • Table 12 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: Value 2011-2016
  • Table 13 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2011-2016
  • Table 14 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2011-2016

SOURCES

  • Summary 3 Research Sources

Tobacco in Georgia - Company Profiles

British American Tobacco Georgia Limited Representation in Tobacco (Georgia)

STRATEGIC DIRECTION

KEY FACTS

COMPANY BACKGROUND

PRODUCTION

COMPETITIVE POSITIONING

  • Summary 6 British American Tobacco Plc: Competitive Position 2011

Eliz Group in Tobacco (Georgia)

STRATEGIC DIRECTION

KEY FACTS

COMPANY BACKGROUND

PRODUCTION

COMPETITIVE POSITIONING

Omega Group Tobacco Ltd in Tobacco (Georgia)

STRATEGIC DIRECTION

KEY FACTS

COMPANY BACKGROUND

PRODUCTION

COMPETITIVE POSITIONING

  • Summary 10 Omega Group Tobacco Ltd: Competitive Position 2011

Cigarettes in Georgia - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • The major trend of 2011 in Georgian cigarettes market was the reduction of local manufacturing and increased import. The reason is that since 2010 the difference in excise tax between local and import tobacco products was reduced. Earlier excise tax for local products was lower than that for imported products, but since 2011 local manufacturers do not have this advantage and the tax is similar. Accordingly, in 2011, local production dropped from 1.9 billion sticks to 1.2 billion sticks, whilst imports rose from 4.3 billion sticks to almost five billion sticks.

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

  • The tobacco market in Georgia is consolidated. In Georgia, the privatisation of state tobacco enterprises was completed at the end of the 1990s. Georgia has two large cigarette production companies – Georgian Tobacco Manufacturing (GTM) and Omega Group Tobacco and 5-10 small cigarette factories.

NEW PRODUCT DEVELOPMENTS

  • Summary 11 Cigarettes - New Product Launches

DISTRIBUTION

PROSPECTS

  • Over the forecast period, the main tendency is likely to be a decline in the share of sales held by mid-tar cigarettes and increasing shares for low-and ultra-low-tarcigarettes. The major reason for that will be popularization of healthy lifestyle and the aspiration of smokers to reduce the harmful effect of cigarettes on their health.

CATEGORY BACKGROUND

Cigarettes: price bands

  • Summary 12 Cigarette Price Band Definitions

Cigarettes: menthol/standard

Flavour threads and capsule filters

Cigarettes: filter/non-filter

Cigarettes: carbon/standard filter

Cigarettes: filter length

Cigarettes: regular vsslimsvssuperslims

Cigarettes: pack size

Cigarettes: pack type

CATEGORY DATA

  • Table 15 Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: Volume 2006-2011
  • Table 16 Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: Value 2006-2011
  • Table 17 Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: % Volume Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 18 Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: % Value Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 19 Sales of Cigarettes by Price Band: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 20 Sales of Cigarettes by Standard/Menthol: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 21 Sales of Cigarettes by Tobacco Type: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 22 Sales of Cigarettes by Filter Vs Non-filter: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 23 Sales of Filter Cigarettes by Carbon Vs Non-carbon: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 24 Sales of Cigarettes by Length: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 25 Sales of Cigarettes by Regular/Slim/Superslim: % Volume Breakdown 2007-2011
  • Table 26 Sales of Cigarettes by Pack Size: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 27 Sales of Cigarettes by Pack Type: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 28 Cigarettes Company Shares 2007-2011
  • Table 29 Cigarettes Brand Shares 2008-2011
  • Table 30 Sales of Cigarettes by Distribution Format: % Analysis 2006-2011
  • Table 31 Cigarettes: Production, Imports and Exports: Total Volume 2006-2011
  • Table 32 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: Volume 2011-2016
  • Table 33 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: Value 2011-2016
  • Table 34 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: % Volume Growth 2011-2016
  • Table 35 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: % Value Growth 2011-2016
  • Table 36 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Price Band: % Volume Breakdown 2011-2016
  • Table 37 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Standard/Menthol: % Volume Breakdown 2011-2016
  • Table 38 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tobacco Type: % Volume Breakdown 2011-2016
  • Table 39 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Filter Vs Non-filter: % Volume Breakdown 2011-2016
  • Table 40 Forecast Sales of Filter Cigarettes by Carbon Vs Non-carbon: % Volume Breakdown 2011-2016
  • Table 41 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Length: % Volume Breakdown 2011-2016
  • Table 42 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Regular/Slim/Superslim: % Volume Breakdown 2011-2016
  • Table 43 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Pack Size: % Volume Breakdown 2011-2016
  • Table 44 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Pack Type: % Volume Breakdown 2011-2016

Cigars in Georgia - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • There is no widely established tradition of cigar smoking in Georgia, because in Soviet Union time, only cigarettes were affordable. Cigar and cigarillos smoking was considered a reflection of “evil capitalism”, and it was strongly controlled. The reason for the small share of cigars in the Georgian tobacco market by 2011 was their high price, so that only little amount of affluent Georgianscould afford them.There is also no actual product understandingon the market. Cigar culture in the country is rather undeveloped.

HAND-MADE VERSUS MACHINE MANUFACTURED SPLITS

  • Table 45 Sales of Cigars by Handmade vsMachine-made: % Volume/Value Breakdown 2007-2011

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

  • In 2011Altadis SA maintained the leading position in cigars excluding cigarillos, with a retail volume share of 49%. The cigar brand Phillies contributed to the achievement of the leading position. The brand Phillies Titan Black held the leading position in cigars excluding cigarillos with a volume share of 19%. The second position was held by Phillies Sweets with a retail volume share of 10%. The third position was held by Phillies Blunts, also with a retail volume share of 9%.Agio Cigars (brand Balmoral) was second in cigars excluding cigarillos with a retail volume share of 8%. Third place was held by CorporaciónHabanos with its Cohiba brand with a volume share of 6%.The Georgian distributors look mainly for foreign manufacturers of cigars and cigarillos. The Diamond and G was the most successful local distributor in 2011. It maintains close relationships with manufacturers and suppliers around the world, and imports the bulk of cigars and cigarillos into Georgia.

NEW PRODUCT DEVELOPMENTS

  • Summary 13 Cigars - New Product Launches

DISTRIBUTION

PROSPECTS

  • A considerable proportion of consumers of cigars or cigarillos were foreigners in 2011. Increased international contact with the development of the tourism industry, and a higher number of foreigners in Georgia is influencing sales positively.Political and economic problems in Georgia in 2008-2009 slowed down inflow of foreign tourists, but since 2010 Georgia’s department of tourism has noted appreciable growth of visits to Georgia by foreign tourists and even more rapid growthis projected for the future.

CATEGORY DATA

  • Table 46 Sales of Cigars by Category: Volume 2006-2011
  • Table 47 Sales of Cigars by Category: Value 2006-2011
  • Table 48 Sales of Cigars by Category: % Volume Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 49 Sales of Cigars by Category: % Value Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 50 Sales of Cigars by Handmade vs Machine-manufactured: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 51 Sales of Cigars by Handmade vs Machine-manufactured: % Value Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 52 Company Shares of Cigars Excluding Cigarillos 2007-2011
  • Table 53 Brand Shares of Cigars Excluding Cigarillos 2008-2011
  • Table 54 Company Shares of Cigarillos 2007-2011
  • Table 55 Brand Shares of Cigarillos 2008-2011
  • Table 56 Sales of Cigars by Distribution Format: % Analysis 2006-2011
  • Table 57 Forecast Sales of Cigars by Category: Volume 2011-2016
  • Table 58 Forecast Sales of Cigars by Category: Value 2011-2016
  • Table 59 Forecast Sales of Cigars by Category: % Volume Growth 2011-2016
  • Table 60 Forecast Sales of Cigars by Category: % Value Growth 2011-2016

Smokeless Tobacco in Georgia - Category Analysis

TRENDS

  • There is no tradition for smokeless tobacco in Georgia. The Law on Tobacco Control states that smokeless tobacco as a type of tobacco, but does not mention it further, whether it is banned or legal. Sales of smokeless tobacco were negligible in Georgia in 2011. Chapman (dry snuff) was introduced by JohWilh von Eicken in 2008. However, only 15kg was importedin 2008,1kg in 2009 and 20kg in 2011. Other types of smokeless tobacco are not available in Georgia.

Smoking Tobacco in Georgia - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • Tobacco has been grown in Georgia since early times; however, now the process is stopped, so smoking tobacco in Georgia has deeper traditions than cigars and cigarillos. Yet, smoking tobacco has a very small share in the overall sales of tobacco products, with rather small volume and value sales. For half a century Georgia was part of the Soviet Union, where cigarettes were the only legal smoking product, so this explains the low popularity of smoking tobacco in the country now. Smoking tobacco is difficult to use compared with cigarettes as consumers have to roll a cigarette themselves or stuff the pipe. Another constraint for smoking tobacco in Georgia is its high price, when taking into account the price of cigarettes in Georgia.

THE ROLE AND EFFECT OF CANNABIS/MARIJUANA

DISTRIBUTION

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

  • British American Tobacco Middle East & Caucasus pioneered in smoking tobacco in Georgia. By 2011 accounted for32% of retail volume sales due to the success of its Samson and Captain Black brands. Samson and Samson Bright Blend Halfzware Shag carried the leading brand status in RYO tobacco, and Captain Black and Captain Black Lights ranked seventh and second positions respectively in pipe tobacco.Imperial Tobacco Group kept the second company position in 2011, holdinga volume share of 20%. In RYO tobacco, Imperial brands Drum and Virginia Gold held the third and fourth positions, respectively and its Amphora Full Aroma brand ranked sixth in pipe tobacco. Mac Baren Tobacco ranked third with a retail volume share of 10%; it owns the Original Choice and Mac Baren brands. Swedish Match followed Mac Baren with a volume share of 8%, and Peterson’s Pipe Tobacco completed the top five, holding a volume share of 4%. Both Mac Baren and Peterson’sareinpipetobacco.

NEW PRODUCT DEVELOPMENTS

PROSPECTS

  • The main direction of smoking tobacco market over the forecast periodis the formation of a stable consumer audience for this market. It is clear that in Georgia the audience will be small. But it must be determined who is a stable consumer, for what products is there major demand andwhat flavours and pricesattract customers. This, in turn, will help to stabilize and increase sales and build a culture of consumption of smoking tobacco in Georgia.

CATEGORY DATA

  • Table 61 Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: Volume 2006-2011
  • Table 62 Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: Value 2006-2011
  • Table 63 Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 64 Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 65 Company Shares of RYO Tobacco 2007-2011
  • Table 66 Brand Shares of RYO Tobacco 2008-2011
  • Table 67 Company Shares of Pipe Tobacco 2007-2011
  • Table 68 Brand Shares of Pipe Tobacco 2008-2011
  • Table 69 Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Distribution Format: % Analysis 2006-2011
  • Table 70 Forecast Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: Volume 2011-2016
  • Table 71 Forecast Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: Value 2011-2016
  • Table 72 Forecast Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2011-2016
  • Table 73 Forecast Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2011-2016

Segmentation

Segmentation

This market research report includes the following:

  • Tobacco
    • Cigarettes
      • High Tar Cigarettes
      • Mid Tar Cigarettes
      • Low Tar Cigarettes
      • Ultra Low Tar Cigarettes
    • Cigars
      • Cigars Excluding Cigarillos
        • Large Cigars
        • Standard Cigars
        • Small Cigars
      • Cigarillos
    • Smoking Tobacco
      • RYO Tobacco
      • Pipe Tobacco
    • Smokeless Tobacco
      • Chewing Tobacco
        • Asian-Style Chewing Tobacco
        • US-Style Chewing Tobacco
        • Other Chewing Tobacco
      • Snuff
        • Moist Snuff
          • US-Style Moist Snuff ('Dip')
            • Loose US-Style Moist Snuff
            • Portion US-Style Moist Snuff
          • Swedish-Style Snus
            • Loose Swedish-Style Snus
            • Portion Swedish-Style Snus
          • Asian Style Creamy Snuff
        • Dry Snuff
        • Hard Snuff
    • Cigarettes Including RYO Stick Equivalent
      • High Tar Cigarettes
      • Mid Tar Cigarettes
      • Low Tar Cigarettes
      • Ultra Low Tar Cigarettes
      • RYO Cigarettes

Statistics Included

Statistics Included

For each category and subcategory you will receive the following data in Excel format:

From Passport

  • Market sizes
  • Company shares
  • Brand shares
  • Distribution
  • Analysis by type
  • Cigarettes by blend
  • Cigarettes by carbon filter/non-carbon filter
  • Cigarettes by filtered/unfiltered
  • Cigarettes by length
  • Cigarettes by pack size
  • Cigarettes by pack type
  • Cigarettes by price band
  • Cigarettes by regular/slim/superslim
  • Cigarettes by standard/menthol
  • Illicit trade penetration
  • Pricing
  • Products by ingredient
  • Products by ingredient
  • Smoking population - number of adult smokers
  • Smoking prevalence - % of adult population
  • Taxation
  • Trade statistics - volume

Market size details:

  • Retail volume
  • Retail volume % growth
  • Retail volume per capita
  • Retail value retail selling price % growth
  • Retail value retail selling price local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Retail value retail selling price per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Illicit trade volume
  • Illicit trade volume % growth
  • Illicit trade volume per capita
  • Retail volume (sticks)
  • Retail volume (sticks) % growth
  • Retail volume (sticks) per capita
  • Retail plus illicit trade
  • Retail plus illicit trade % growth
  • Retail plus illicit trade per capita

Methodology

Methodology

Global insight and local knowledge

With 40 years’ experience of developed and emerging markets, Euromonitor International’s research method is built on a unique combination of specialist industry knowledge and in-country research expertise.

This approach is what enables us to achieve our goal of building a market consensus view of size, shape and trends across the full distribution universe of each category. We factor in whichever channels are relevant, from large-scale grocery to direct sellers, from discount stores to local mom-and-pop outlets.

Industry specialists

Each industry we cover is managed by an Industry Manager and team of Industry Analysts who research and report on their specialist categories all year round.

Our collaborative approach to research means that these industry teams are in constant dialogue with industry players and opinion formers. The planning of our research programmes reflects latest market trends and industry events. In completing each update project, this provides invaluable input to the testing, review and finalisation of our data.

The specialist in-house teams bring together findings from all stages of the annual research process. They work closely with in-country analysts, assess and challenge data and exercise final editorial control over the publication of new data and analysis.

Country and regional analysts

Our in-country analyst network is managed by country and regional analysts in our offices around the world. Working closely with each in-country team, the regional research management team ensures that all country researchers are well schooled in best practices, from the information collected in store checks, to the dialogue we build in trade surveys. Our country analysts ensure that national reports explain the data trends and provide clear insights into the local market’s dynamics.

In-country research network

To deliver fresh insights every year in countries all around the world, we believe the strongest approach is to use analysts on the ground. They bring fluency in local language, physical proximity to the best sources, an ability to engage directly with local industry contacts, and an awareness of how the products and services we study are advertised, sold and consumed. These are essential parts of our ability to report incisively on these markets.

Research Methodology

Our research methods

Each Euromonitor International industry report is based on a core set of research techniques:

Desk research

With industry events, corporate activity, trends and new product introductions tracked year round by our industry team, desk research provides a starting point for the in-country research programme. Our in-country researchers will access the following sources:

  • National statistics offices governmental and official sources
  • National and international trade press
  • National and international trade associations
  • Industry study groups and other semi-official sources
  • Company financials and annual reports
  • Broker reports
  • Online databases
  • The financial, business and mainstream press

Accessing sources is only the first step. The ability to interpret and reconcile often conflicting information across multiple sources is a key aspect of the added value we provide.

Store checks

Store checks are an integral part of our methods for product industries. Carried out on the ground across a relevant mix of channels, the information gained provides first-hand insights into the products we are researching, specifically:

  • Place: We track products in all relevant channels, selective and mass, store and non-store
  • Product: What are innovations in products, pack sizes and formats?
  • Price: What are brand price variations across channels, how do private label’s prices compare to those of branded goods?
  • Promotion: What are marketing and merchandising trends, offers, discounts and tie-ins?

Findings are cross-referenced with brand share data analysis. The results, combined with the findings of desk research, provide a strong basis for identifying key areas of questioning to take forward into our trade survey.

Trade survey

Interaction with global players at corporate HQ and regional levels is complemented by unique local data and insights from our in-country trade surveys around the world. Through the high profile of the Euromonitor International brand, we are able to talk directly to a wide range of sources and therefore inform our analysis with the knowledge and opinions of the leading operators in the market.

Trade surveys allow us to:

  • Fill gaps in available published data per company
  • Generate a consensus view of the size, structure and strategic direction of the category
  • Access year-in-progress data where published sources are out of date
  • Evaluate the experts’ views on current trends and market developments

In building our composite industry view, we engage with a variety of personnel in key players at all points of the supply chain: materials suppliers, manufacturers, distributors, retailers and service operators. We also interview desk research sources: industry associations; study groups; and third party observers from the trade and financial press.

Our objective is to engage in conversation with trade sources in which we exchange ideas and views on the industry, sharing our work-in-progress findings on supply/demand dynamics and potential. This dialogue enhances both parties’ understanding of the local market. The scope and reach of our trade survey also serves to eliminate bias (intentional and unintentional) from any single source.

Company analysis

At a global level, our company research combines our mix of industry interaction and use of secondary sources such as annual accounts, broker reports, financial press and databases. From a data perspective, the aim is to build “top-down” estimates of major players’ total global and regional sales.

At a country level, in line with local reporting requirements, we access annual accounts, national-specific company databases and local company websites. These are all invaluable sources as we build a view of each domestic player’s size and position within very specific categories of the industry.

Forecasts

Data projections and future performance analysis are key elements of Euromonitor International’s market intelligence. Working with historic trends of 15 years or more, a key aspect of our trade survey is to engage industry insider views of the next five years. Will volumes maintain their historic trend? Will price increases or falls of recent years continue, accelerate or slow down? Will increasing demand for one product cannibalise sales of another?

Forecasts represent many of the essential conclusions we have reached about the current state of the market, how it works and how it behaves under different macro and micro conditions. Our written analysis will state the assumptions and the trade opinion behind whether our predictions are optimistic or pessimistic, so that clients can use our statistical forecasts with confidence.

Data validation

All data is subjected to an exhaustive review process, at country, regional and global levels.

The interpretation and review of sources and data inputs forms a central part of the collaboration between industry teams and country researchers. Numbers are delivered to regional and global offices with an audit trail of sources and calculations to allow for a thorough evaluation of data sense and integrity.

Upon completion of the country review phase, data is then reviewed on a comparative basis at regional and then at a global level. Comparative checks are carried out on per capita consumption and spending levels, growth rates, patterns of category and subcategory breakdowns and distribution of sales by channel. Top-down estimates are reviewed against bottom-up regional and global market and company sales totals.

Where marked differences are seen between proximate country markets or ones at similar developmental levels, supplementary research is conducted in the relevant countries to confirm and/or amend those findings. This process ensures international comparability across the database, that consistent category and subcategory definitions have been used and that all data has been correctly tested. We make sure that possible discrepancies between different published sources have been reconciled and that our interpretation of opinion and expectation from each country’s trade sources has been applied to form a coherent international pattern.

Market analysis

Another integral part of all our research programmes is that all Euromonitor International data is accompanied by clear written analysis. From a research perspective, this explains and substantiates data findings. From a client perspective, this offers unique insights into local consumption trends, routes to market, brand preferences, channel dynamics and future trends.

Our country level analysis also provides invaluable input into the ability of our central industry specialist teams to marry local insights with strategic conclusions on the direction of the market regionally and globally.

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