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Country Report

Tobacco in Germany

Oct 2011

Price: US$1,900

About this Report

About this Report

Samples (FAQs about samples):

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Overview

Discover the latest market trends and uncover sources of future market growth for the Tobacco industry in Germany with research from Euromonitor's team of in-country analysts.

Find hidden opportunities in the most current research data available, understand competitive threats with our detailed market analysis, and plan your corporate strategy with our expert qualitative analysis and growth projections.

If you're in the Tobacco industry in Germany, our research will save you time and money while empowering you to make informed, profitable decisions.

When you purchase this report, you also get the data and the content from these category reports in Germany for free:

The Tobacco in Germany market research report includes:

  • Analysis of key supply-side and demand trends
  • Detailed segmentation of international and local products
  • Historic volumes and values, company and brand market shares
  • Five year forecasts of market trends and market growth
  • Production, imports by origin, exports by destination
  • Robust and transparent market research methodology, conducted in-country

Our market research reports answer questions such as:

  • What is the market size of Tobacco in Germany?
  • What are the major brands in Germany?
  • Which sector of the tobacco products market is the largest by value sales in Germany?
  • Which sector of the tobacco products market has been growing the fastest, by volume and value, in Germany?
  • Which sector is the most heavily taxed in Germany?
  • Which companies dominate in the total tobacco market in Germany in terms of market share?
  • What is the distribution channel split for the tobacco products market in Germany?

Why buy this report?

  • Gain competitive intelligence about market leaders
  • Track key industry trends, opportunities and threats
  • Inform your marketing, brand, strategy and market development, sales and supply functions

This industry report originates from Passport, our Tobacco market research database.

Sample Analysis

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Tobacco volume sales experience further decline

Volume sales of tobacco products in Germany registered a further decline in 2010. One reason for this was the declining smoking population. In addition, sales were adversely affected by smoking bans and rising health awareness. The low price of illicit and legitimate cross-border products also affected the overall market. However, RYO tobacco, dry snuff and cigars/cigarillos all posted volume growth whilst cigarettes and pipe tobacco were the worst performers.

Low-priced products continue to register the strongest growth

In light of high unit prices and budget-conscious consumers, low-priced products continued to register a strong performance in 2010. This concerned mainly mid-priced and economy cigarettes, RYO tobacco and cigarillos. Reemtsma’s John Player Special and BAT’s Pall Mall cigarettes posted good results in 2010, as did Philip Morris’ L&M, whilst its global flagship brand Marlboro posted a significant decline. The trend to switch to cheaper tobacco products like RYO tobacco and cigarillos continued. In these categories, economy brands also lead the way, such as BAT’s Pall Mall in RYO tobacco and Dannemann Moods in cigarillos.

Grocery and forecourt retailers remain the leading distribution channels

With the growing demand for cheaper, branded products, which are mainly distributed through grocery and forecourt retailers, both channels made share gains in 2010. Consumers often tend to add a tobacco product to their purchase when shopping or refuelling. Sales through these channels are expected to remain strong over the forecast period. Vending is still declining due to the latest legislation, with smokers finding the requirement to obtain electronic purse cards too much of a hassle.

Smokeless tobacco a niche with potential

The smokeless tobacco category in Germany achieved both positive volume and value growth in 2010. Currently only offering dry snuff, the leading company Pöschl Tabak GmbH & Co KG has registered positive value sales growth in the last few years. This has been mainly due to smoking restrictions which have encouraged some smokers to switch to smokeless alternatives.

Tobacco market in Germany expected to decline further

Over the next few years the major challenge for the tobacco industry will be the recently adopted increase in tobacco tax. This will take place in five stages, starting from 1 May 2011, with subsequent increases being implemented on 1 January every year until 2015. This will particularly affect the prices of economy cigarettes, RYO tobacco and eco-cigarillos. Furthermore, an increasingly anti-smoking environment, high levels of illicit trade and legitimate cross-border sales will continue to affect the tobacco market.

Table of Contents

Table of Contents

Tobacco in Germany - Industry Overview

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Tobacco volume sales experience further decline

Low-priced products continue to register the strongest growth

Grocery and forecourt retailers remain the leading distribution channels

Smokeless tobacco a niche with potential

Tobacco market in Germany expected to decline further

OPERATING ENVIRONMENT

LEGISLATION

  • Summary 1 Legislation Summary at a Glance

Minimum legal smoking age

Smoking Prevalence

  • Table 1 Smoking Prevalence in Adult Population 2005-2010
  • Table 2 Number of Smokers by Gender 2005-2010

Tar levels

Health warnings

Advertising & Sponsorship

Point-of-sale Display Bans

Smoking in public places

Low Ignition Propensity (LIP) regulation

Electronic cigarettes

Litigation

Death by Cause

  • Table 3 Death by Cause 2005-2010

TAXATION AND PRICING

Duty-paid packet marks

Taxation rates

  • Table 4 Taxation and Duty Levies 2005-2010

Average cigarette pack price breakdown

  • Table 5 Average Cigarette Pack Price Breakdown: Brand Examples

PRODUCTION/IMPORTS/EXPORTS

  • Table 6 Trade Statistics – Tobacco Leaf 2006-2010
  • Table 7 Production/Imports/Exports 2005-2010

Illicit trade in cigarettes

MARKET INDICATORS

  • Table 8 Illicit Trade Estimate of Cigarettes by Volume 2005-2010

MARKET DATA

  • Table 9 Sales of Tobacco by Category: Volume 2005-2010
  • Table 10 Sales of Tobacco by Category: Value 2005-2010
  • Table 11 Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 12 Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 13 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: Volume 2010-2015
  • Table 14 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: Value 2010-2015
  • Table 15 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2010-2015
  • Table 16 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2010-2015

DEFINITIONS

  • Summary 2 Research Sources

Tobacco in Germany - Company Profiles

British American Tobacco (Germany) GmbH (BAT) in Tobacco (Germany)

STRATEGIC DIRECTION

KEY FACTS

COMPANY BACKGROUND

PRODUCTION

  • Summary 5 British American Tobacco (Germany) GmbH: Production Statistics 2010

COMPETITIVE POSITIONING

  • Summary 6 British American Tobacco (Germany) GmbH: Competitive Position 2010

Philip Morris GmbH in Tobacco (Germany)

STRATEGIC DIRECTION

KEY FACTS

COMPANY BACKGROUND

PRODUCTION

  • Summary 9 Philip Morris GmbH: Production Statistics 2010

COMPETITIVE POSITIONING

  • Summary 10 Philip Morris GmbH: Competitive Position 2010

Pöschl Tabak Gmbh & Co KG in Tobacco (Germany)

STRATEGIC DIRECTION

KEY FACTS

COMPANY BACKGROUND

PRODUCTION

  • Summary 13 Pöschl Tabak GmbH & Co KG: Production Statistics 2010

COMPETITIVE POSITIONING

  • Summary 14 Pöschl Tabak GmbH & Co KG: Competitive Position 2010

Reemtsma Cigarettenfabriken GmbH in Tobacco (Germany)

STRATEGIC DIRECTION

KEY FACTS

COMPANY BACKGROUND

PRODUCTION

  • Summary 17 Reemtsma Cigarettenfabriken GmbH: Production Statistics 2010

COMPETITIVE POSITIONING

  • Summary 18 Reemtsma Cigarettenfabriken GmbH: Competitive Position 2010

Cigarettes in Germany - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • In 2010, cigarette volume sales declined by almost 4%. Whilst Germany’s ageing population, a low fertility rate and increased health awareness impacted the category, an increase in illicit trade was also recorded. Illegal cigarette volume sales increased by 7% in 2010, which shows that consumers are still looking for the cheapest alternatives.

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

  • In 2010, Philip Morris GmbH remained the leading player in cigarettes in Germany followed by Reemtsma Cigarettenfabriken GmbH and British American Tobacco (Germany) GmbH (BAT). The company’s strongest brand Marlboro experienced a decline in share in 2010, although this was partly offset by a gain in share for its cheaper L&M brand.

NEW PRODUCT DEVELOPMENTS

  • Summary 19 Cigarettes - New Product Launches

DISTRIBUTION

PROSPECTS

  • Although the category is set to register a volume CAGR decline of 2%, in constant value terms it is expected to post a stable CAGR of less than 1% decline. This is expected to be a consequence of the planned tobacco tax increases over the next few years.

SECTOR BACKGROUND

Cigarettes: Price Bands

  • Summary 20 Cigarette Price Band Definitions

Cigarettes: Menthol/standard

Cigarettes: Filter/non-filter

Cigarettes: Carbon/standard filter

Cigarettes: Filter length

Cigarettes: Slims/superslims vs. regular

Cigarettes: Pack size

Cigarettes: Pack type

CATEGORY DATA

  • Table 17 Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: Volume 2005-2010
  • Table 18 Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: Value 2005-2010
  • Table 19 Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: % Volume Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 20 Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: % Value Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 21 Sales of Cigarettes by Price Band: % Volume Breakdown 2005-2010
  • Table 22 Sales of Cigarettes by Standard/Menthol: % Volume Breakdown 2005-2010
  • Table 23 Sales of Cigarettes by Tobacco Type: % Volume Breakdown 2005-2010
  • Table 24 Sales of Cigarettes by Filter Vs Non-filter: % Volume Breakdown 2005-2010
  • Table 25 Sales of Filter Cigarettes by Carbon Vs Non-carbon: % Volume Breakdown 2005-2010
  • Table 26 Sales of Cigarettes by Length: % Volume Breakdown 2005-2010
  • Table 27 Sales of Cigarettes by Regular/Slim: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2010
  • Table 28 Sales of Cigarettes by Pack Size: % Volume Breakdown 2005-2010
  • Table 29 Sales of Cigarettes by Pack Type: % Volume Breakdown 2005-2010
  • Table 30 Cigarettes Company Shares 2006-2010
  • Table 31 Cigarettes Brand Shares 2007-2010
  • Table 32 Sales of Cigarettes by Distribution Format: % Analysis 2005-2010
  • Table 33 Cigarettes: Production, Imports and Exports: Total Volume 2005-2010
  • Table 34 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: Volume 2010-2015
  • Table 35 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: Value 2010-2015
  • Table 36 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: % Volume Growth 2010-2015
  • Table 37 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: % Value Growth 2010-2015
  • Table 38 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Price Band: % Volume Breakdown 2010-2015
  • Table 39 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Standard/Menthol: % Volume Breakdown 2010-2015
  • Table 40 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tobacco Type: % Volume Breakdown 2010-2015
  • Table 41 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Filter Vs Non-filter: % Volume Breakdown 2010-2015
  • Table 42 Forecast Sales of Filter Cigarettes by Carbon Vs Non-carbon: % Volume Breakdown 2010-2015
  • Table 43 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Length: % Volume Breakdown 2010-2015
  • Table 44 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Regular/Slim: % Volume Breakdown 2010-2015
  • Table 45 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Pack Size: % Volume Breakdown 2010-2015
  • Table 46 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Pack Type: % Volume Breakdown 2010-2015

Cigars in Germany - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • Cigar and cigarillo (excluding eco-cigarillos) smoking has a long history in Germany, with the stereotypical public image of cigars tending to be of premium hand-rolled products smoked usually by older men, whereas cigarillos are mostly purchased by younger smokers. In reality, machine-made cigars and cigarillos account for the bulk of total volume sales. Overall, cigar smoking is still far more popular among men than women.

HANDMADE VERSUS MACHINE-MANUFACTURED SPLITS

  • Table 47 Sales of Cigars by Handmade vs Machine-manufactured 2006-2010

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

  • The overall category leader in 2010 continued to be Dannemann, resulting from the fact that cigarillos account for around 95% of total sales. Its position can primarily be attributed to its well-performing Dannemann Moods brand, which is easily recognisable and available almost everywhere.

NEW PRODUCT DEVELOPMENTS

  • Summary 21 Cigars and Cigarillos - New Product Launches

DISTRIBUTION

PROSPECTS

  • Cigars and cigarillos is expected to record a volume CAGR of 1% over the forecast period. Cigars excluding cigarillos is expected to perform better than over the review period due to the ageing population. Cigars are very popular among older men and younger cigarette smokers could potentially shift to cigars. Cigarillos is expected to put in a solid performance over the forecast period as these are cheaper than cigarettes.

CATEGORY DATA

  • Table 48 Sales of Cigars by Category: Volume 2005-2010
  • Table 49 Sales of Cigars by Category: Value 2005-2010
  • Table 50 Sales of Cigars by Category: % Volume Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 51 Sales of Cigars by Category: % Value Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 52 Sales of Cigars by Handmade vs Machine Manufactured: % Volume Breakdown 2005-2010
  • Table 53 Company Shares of Cigars Excluding Cigarillos 2006-2010
  • Table 54 Brand Shares of Cigars Excluding Cigarillos 2007-2010
  • Table 55 Company Shares of Cigarillos 2006-2010
  • Table 56 Brand Shares of Cigarillos 2007-2010
  • Table 57 Sales of Cigars by Distribution Format: % Analysis 2005-2010
  • Table 58 Forecast Sales of Cigars by Category: Volume 2010-2015
  • Table 59 Forecast Sales of Cigars by Category: Value 2010-2015
  • Table 60 Forecast Sales of Cigars by Category: % Volume Growth 2010-2015
  • Table 61 Forecast Sales of Cigars by Category: % Value Growth 2010-2015

Smokeless Tobacco in Germany - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • Smokeless tobacco has a long tradition in Germany. The first domestic snuff manufacturer was created in the18th century and still exists - Bernard Schnupftabak GmbH. Today, the main producer is Pöschl Tabak. Even though the category is small, its overall product portfolio is quite extensive.

DISTRIBUTION

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

  • Pöschl Tabak held a 94% volume share of snuff in 2010. Its main brand Gletscherprise maintained a 47% share. The company’s Gawith Apricot brand is also very popular in Germany, commanding a 19% volume share in 2010.

NEW PRODUCT DEVELOPMENTS

  • Summary 22 Smokeless Tobacco - New Product Launches

PROSPECTS

  • Smokeless tobacco is growing thanks to smoking restrictions in outlets such as restaurants and on flights. The category is expected to post a moderate volume CAGR of 1% over the forecast period. However, it will remain a small niche.

CATEGORY DATA

  • Table 62 Sales of Smokeless Tobacco by Category: Volume 2005-2010
  • Table 63 Sales of Smokeless Tobacco by Category: Value 2005-2010
  • Table 64 Sales of Smokeless Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 65 Sales of Smokeless Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 66 Company Shares of Smokeless Tobacco 2006-2010
  • Table 67 Brand Shares of Smokeless Tobacco 2007-2010
  • Table 68 Sales of Smokless Tobacco by Distribution Format: % Analysis 2005-2010
  • Table 69 Forecast Sales of Smokeless Tobacco by Category: Volume 2010-2015
  • Table 70 Forecast Sales of Smokeless Tobacco by Category: Value 2010-2015
  • Table 71 Forecast Sales of Smokeless Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2010-2015
  • Table 72 Forecast Sales of Smokeless Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2010-2015

Smoking Tobacco in Germany - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • Both pipe and RYO tobacco have a long tradition in Germany, although RYO tobacco has become more popular among German smokers in recent years due to the product’s low unit price. Whilst this category continued to perform well in 2010, posting volume growth of 4% and current value growth of 6%, pipe tobacco registered a decline of 6% in volume terms and 5% in current value terms.

The Role and Effect of Cannabis/Marijuana

DISTRIBUTION

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

  • Reemtsma Cigarettenfabriken GmbH remained the leading manufacturer of smoking tobacco in 2010 with a 20% volume share, closely followed by BAT with a share of 19%. This is largely due to their popular brands Pall Mall (BAT) and John Player Special (Reemtsma), which are economy and mid-priced brands, respectively. Philip Morris GmbH also commands a strong position, holding a 15% volume share in 2010.

NEW PRODUCT DEVELOPMENTS

  • Summary 23 Smoking Tobacco - New Product Launches

PROSPECTS

  • The traditional pipe tobacco category has been declining for several years and is predicted to post a further decline, after which it will stagnate with a minimal increase resulting from the fact that pipe tobacco almost exclusively caters for older consumers and Germany’s population is ageing.

CATEGORY DATA

  • Table 73 Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: Volume 2005-2010
  • Table 74 Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: Value 2005-2010
  • Table 75 Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 76 Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 77 Company Shares of RYO Tobacco 2006-2010
  • Table 78 Brand Shares of RYO Tobacco 2007-2010
  • Table 79 Company Shares of Pipe Tobacco 2006-2010
  • Table 80 Brand Shares of Pipe Tobacco 2007-2010
  • Table 81 Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Distribution Format: % Analysis 2005-2010
  • Table 82 Forecast Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: Volume 2010-2015
  • Table 83 Forecast Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: Value 2010-2015
  • Table 84 Forecast Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2010-2015
  • Table 85 Forecast Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2010-2015

Segmentation

Segmentation

This market research report includes the following:

  • Tobacco
    • Cigarettes
      • High Tar Cigarettes
      • Mid Tar Cigarettes
      • Low Tar Cigarettes
      • Ultra Low Tar Cigarettes
    • Cigars
      • Cigars Excluding Cigarillos
        • Large Cigars
        • Standard Cigars
        • Small Cigars
      • Cigarillos
    • Smoking Tobacco
      • RYO Tobacco
      • Pipe Tobacco
    • Smokeless Tobacco
      • Chewing Tobacco
        • Asian-Style Chewing Tobacco
        • US-Style Chewing Tobacco
        • Other Chewing Tobacco
      • Snuff
        • Moist Snuff
          • US-Style Moist Snuff ('Dip')
            • Loose US-Style Moist Snuff
            • Portion US-Style Moist Snuff
          • Swedish-Style Snus
            • Loose Swedish-Style Snus
            • Portion Swedish-Style Snus
          • Asian Style Creamy Snuff
        • Dry Snuff
        • Hard Snuff
    • Cigarettes Including RYO Stick Equivalent
      • High Tar Cigarettes
      • Mid Tar Cigarettes
      • Low Tar Cigarettes
      • Ultra Low Tar Cigarettes
      • RYO Cigarettes

Statistics Included

Statistics Included

For each category and subcategory you will receive the following data in Excel format:

From Passport

  • Market sizes
  • Company shares
  • Brand shares
  • Distribution
  • Analysis by type
  • Cigarettes by blend
  • Cigarettes by carbon filter/non-carbon filter
  • Cigarettes by filtered/unfiltered
  • Cigarettes by length
  • Cigarettes by pack size
  • Cigarettes by pack type
  • Cigarettes by price band
  • Cigarettes by regular/slim
  • Cigarettes by standard/menthol
  • Illicit trade penetration
  • Pricing
  • Products by ingredient
  • Products by ingredient
  • Smoking population - number of adult smokers
  • Smoking prevalence - % of adult population
  • Taxation
  • Trade statistics - volume

Market size details:

  • Retail volume
  • Retail volume % growth
  • Retail volume per capita
  • Retail value retail selling price % growth
  • Retail value retail selling price local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Retail value retail selling price per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Retail value retail selling price real (constant 2008) prices % growth
  • Retail value retail selling price real (constant 2008) prices local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Retail value retail selling price real (constant 2008) prices per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Illicit trade volume
  • Illicit trade volume % growth
  • Illicit trade volume per capita
  • Retail volume (sticks)
  • Retail volume (sticks) % growth
  • Retail volume (sticks) per capita
  • Retail value retail selling price nominal (current) prices % growth
  • Retail value retail selling price nominal (current) prices local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Retail value retail selling price nominal (current) prices per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Retail plus illicit trade
  • Retail plus illicit trade % growth
  • Retail plus illicit trade per capita

Methodology

Methodology

Global insight and local knowledge

With 40 years’ experience of developed and emerging markets, Euromonitor International’s research method is built on a unique combination of specialist industry knowledge and in-country research expertise.

This approach is what enables us to achieve our goal of building a market consensus view of size, shape and trends across the full distribution universe of each category. We factor in whichever channels are relevant, from large-scale grocery to direct sellers, from discount stores to local mom-and-pop outlets.

Industry specialists

Each industry we cover is managed by an Industry Manager and team of Industry Analysts who research and report on their specialist categories all year round.

Our collaborative approach to research means that these industry teams are in constant dialogue with industry players and opinion formers. The planning of our research programmes reflects latest market trends and industry events. In completing each update project, this provides invaluable input to the testing, review and finalisation of our data.

The specialist in-house teams bring together findings from all stages of the annual research process. They work closely with in-country analysts, assess and challenge data and exercise final editorial control over the publication of new data and analysis.

Country and regional analysts

Our in-country analyst network is managed by country and regional analysts in our offices around the world. Working closely with each in-country team, the regional research management team ensures that all country researchers are well schooled in best practices, from the information collected in store checks, to the dialogue we build in trade surveys. Our country analysts ensure that national reports explain the data trends and provide clear insights into the local market’s dynamics.

In-country research network

To deliver fresh insights every year in countries all around the world, we believe the strongest approach is to use analysts on the ground. They bring fluency in local language, physical proximity to the best sources, an ability to engage directly with local industry contacts, and an awareness of how the products and services we study are advertised, sold and consumed. These are essential parts of our ability to report incisively on these markets.

Research Methodology

Our research methods

Each Euromonitor International industry report is based on a core set of research techniques:

Desk research

With industry events, corporate activity, trends and new product introductions tracked year round by our industry team, desk research provides a starting point for the in-country research programme. Our in-country researchers will access the following sources:

  • National statistics offices governmental and official sources
  • National and international trade press
  • National and international trade associations
  • Industry study groups and other semi-official sources
  • Company financials and annual reports
  • Broker reports
  • Online databases
  • The financial, business and mainstream press

Accessing sources is only the first step. The ability to interpret and reconcile often conflicting information across multiple sources is a key aspect of the added value we provide.

Store checks

Store checks are an integral part of our methods for product industries. Carried out on the ground across a relevant mix of channels, the information gained provides first-hand insights into the products we are researching, specifically:

  • Place: We track products in all relevant channels, selective and mass, store and non-store
  • Product: What are innovations in products, pack sizes and formats?
  • Price: What are brand price variations across channels, how do private label’s prices compare to those of branded goods?
  • Promotion: What are marketing and merchandising trends, offers, discounts and tie-ins?

Findings are cross-referenced with brand share data analysis. The results, combined with the findings of desk research, provide a strong basis for identifying key areas of questioning to take forward into our trade survey.

Trade survey

Interaction with global players at corporate HQ and regional levels is complemented by unique local data and insights from our in-country trade surveys around the world. Through the high profile of the Euromonitor International brand, we are able to talk directly to a wide range of sources and therefore inform our analysis with the knowledge and opinions of the leading operators in the market.

Trade surveys allow us to:

  • Fill gaps in available published data per company
  • Generate a consensus view of the size, structure and strategic direction of the category
  • Access year-in-progress data where published sources are out of date
  • Evaluate the experts’ views on current trends and market developments

In building our composite industry view, we engage with a variety of personnel in key players at all points of the supply chain: materials suppliers, manufacturers, distributors, retailers and service operators. We also interview desk research sources: industry associations; study groups; and third party observers from the trade and financial press.

Our objective is to engage in conversation with trade sources in which we exchange ideas and views on the industry, sharing our work-in-progress findings on supply/demand dynamics and potential. This dialogue enhances both parties’ understanding of the local market. The scope and reach of our trade survey also serves to eliminate bias (intentional and unintentional) from any single source.

Company analysis

At a global level, our company research combines our mix of industry interaction and use of secondary sources such as annual accounts, broker reports, financial press and databases. From a data perspective, the aim is to build “top-down” estimates of major players’ total global and regional sales.

At a country level, in line with local reporting requirements, we access annual accounts, national-specific company databases and local company websites. These are all invaluable sources as we build a view of each domestic player’s size and position within very specific categories of the industry.

Forecasts

Data projections and future performance analysis are key elements of Euromonitor International’s market intelligence. Working with historic trends of 15 years or more, a key aspect of our trade survey is to engage industry insider views of the next five years. Will volumes maintain their historic trend? Will price increases or falls of recent years continue, accelerate or slow down? Will increasing demand for one product cannibalise sales of another?

Forecasts represent many of the essential conclusions we have reached about the current state of the market, how it works and how it behaves under different macro and micro conditions. Our written analysis will state the assumptions and the trade opinion behind whether our predictions are optimistic or pessimistic, so that clients can use our statistical forecasts with confidence.

Data validation

All data is subjected to an exhaustive review process, at country, regional and global levels.

The interpretation and review of sources and data inputs forms a central part of the collaboration between industry teams and country researchers. Numbers are delivered to regional and global offices with an audit trail of sources and calculations to allow for a thorough evaluation of data sense and integrity.

Upon completion of the country review phase, data is then reviewed on a comparative basis at regional and then at a global level. Comparative checks are carried out on per capita consumption and spending levels, growth rates, patterns of category and subcategory breakdowns and distribution of sales by channel. Top-down estimates are reviewed against bottom-up regional and global market and company sales totals.

Where marked differences are seen between proximate country markets or ones at similar developmental levels, supplementary research is conducted in the relevant countries to confirm and/or amend those findings. This process ensures international comparability across the database, that consistent category and subcategory definitions have been used and that all data has been correctly tested. We make sure that possible discrepancies between different published sources have been reconciled and that our interpretation of opinion and expectation from each country’s trade sources has been applied to form a coherent international pattern.

Market analysis

Another integral part of all our research programmes is that all Euromonitor International data is accompanied by clear written analysis. From a research perspective, this explains and substantiates data findings. From a client perspective, this offers unique insights into local consumption trends, routes to market, brand preferences, channel dynamics and future trends.

Our country level analysis also provides invaluable input into the ability of our central industry specialist teams to marry local insights with strategic conclusions on the direction of the market regionally and globally.

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