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Country Report

Tobacco in Germany

Nov 2012

Price: US$1,900

About this Report

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Volume sales increase for cigarettes

In spite of the tax rises in May 2011, cigarette volume sales increased. Experts believe that the rise in demand was due to the good weather in the spring and autumn, as well as the recovery of the German economy, which helped to boost consumer confidence. Since the introduction of the smoking ban in public buildings, including food outlets, the weather has played an important role in the consumption patterns of cigarettes in Germany.

New taxation yet to harm demand

The new tax rises that were introduced in May 2011 did not negatively impact the consumer demand for mainstream tobacco products in Germany during the year, with the key product, cigarettes, even showing positive volume growth in 2011. Although the illicit cigarette trade increased slightly, it too failed to show a high surge. Thus, it appears that the government’s plan to maintain low levels of illicit cigarette trade by means of imposing small tax increases each year is working. The government also hopes to maintain similar price levels for all tobacco products thereby reducing the high demand for cheaper items such as RYO and eco cigarillos.

High consolidation among manufacturers

There was high consolidation of the competitive landscape in tobacco products in 2011. The German subsidiaries of the four multinationals, Philip Morris, Reemtsma (Imperial Tobacco), British American Tobacco and Japan Tobacco International, dominated the cigarette market with only a small share in the hands of other companies and retailers. The presence of multinationals is invaluable to the growth in tobacco products as a whole, due to their financial power, which enables them to make crucial capital investments, product innovations and regular product launches. This is particularly important in the context of an increasingly hostile market environment for tobacco products.

Mainstream retailers strong on distribution

Grocery retailers and forecourts dominated the distribution of cigarettes in Germany, due to the large product range these outlets carry and the convenience factor. In cigars, tobacco specialists dominated due to the expert advice they offer consumers as part of their service, which corresponds with the upmarket image of the product. As yet, online sales account for only a small share of the distribution of tobacco products in Germany.

Diverse developments expected over the forecast period

In the 2011-2016 period, tobacco volume sales are expected to drop slightly as high taxes, smoking bans, and stringent legislation, as well as anti-smoking campaigns, are expected to gradually erode demand, especially for cigarettes. A reduction in the number of smokers is also projected due to the growing health awareness of the population. Nonetheless, cigars and smoking tobacco are anticipated to continue showing volume growth, although with a trend of deceleration towards 2016.


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Overview

Discover the latest market trends and uncover sources of future market growth for the Tobacco industry in Germany with research from Euromonitor's team of in-country analysts.

Find hidden opportunities in the most current research data available, understand competitive threats with our detailed market analysis, and plan your corporate strategy with our expert qualitative analysis and growth projections.

If you're in the Tobacco industry in Germany, our research will save you time and money while empowering you to make informed, profitable decisions.

When you purchase this report, you also get the data and the content from these category reports in Germany for free:

The Tobacco in Germany market research report includes:

  • Analysis of key supply-side and demand trends
  • Detailed segmentation of international and local products
  • Historic volumes and values, company and brand market shares
  • Five year forecasts of market trends and market growth
  • Production, imports by origin, exports by destination
  • Robust and transparent market research methodology, conducted in-country

Our market research reports answer questions such as:

  • What is the market size of Tobacco in Germany?
  • What are the major brands in Germany?
  • Which sector of the tobacco products market is the largest by value sales in Germany?
  • Which sector of the tobacco products market has been growing the fastest, by volume and value, in Germany?
  • Which sector is the most heavily taxed in Germany?
  • Which companies dominate in the total tobacco market in Germany in terms of market share?
  • What is the distribution channel split for the tobacco products market in Germany?

Why buy this report?

  • Gain competitive intelligence about market leaders
  • Track key industry trends, opportunities and threats
  • Inform your marketing, brand, strategy and market development, sales and supply functions

This industry report originates from Passport, our Tobacco market research database.

Table of Contents

Table of Contents

Tobacco in Germany - Industry Overview

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Volume sales increase for cigarettes

New taxation yet to harm demand

High consolidation among manufacturers

Mainstream retailers strong on distribution

Diverse developments expected over the forecast period

OPERATING ENVIRONMENT

LEGISLATION

  • Summary 1 Legislation Summary at a Glance

Country-specific legislation: EU Directives

Minimum legal smoking age

Smoking prevalence

  • Table 1 Smoking Prevalence in Adult Population 2006-2011
  • Table 2 Number of Smokers by Gender 2006-2011

Tar levels

Health warnings

Advertising & sponsorship

Point-of-sale display bans

Smoking in public places

Low ignition propensity (LIP) regulation

‘Reduced harm’

Electronic cigarettes

Litigation

Death by cause

  • Table 3 Death by Cause 2007-2011

TAXATION AND PRICING

Duty paid packet marks

Taxation rates

  • Table 4 Taxation and Duty Levies 2006-2011

Average cigarette pack price breakdown

  • Table 5 Average Cigarette Pack Price Breakdown : Brand Examples

PRODUCTION/IMPORTS/EXPORTS

Illicit trade in cigarettes

MARKET INDICATORS

  • Table 6 Illicit Trade Estimate of Cigarettes by Volume 2006-2011

MARKET DATA

  • Table 7 Sales of Tobacco by Category: Volume 2006-2011
  • Table 8 Sales of Tobacco by Category: Value 2006-2011
  • Table 9 Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 10 Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 11 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: Volume 2011-2016
  • Table 12 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: Value 2011-2016
  • Table 13 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2011-2016
  • Table 14 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2011-2016

DEFINITIONS

SOURCES

  • Summary 2 Research Sources

Tobacco in Germany - Company Profiles

British American Tobacco (Germany) GmbH (BAT) in Tobacco (Germany)

STRATEGIC DIRECTION

KEY FACTS

COMPANY BACKGROUND

PRODUCTION

  • Summary 5 British American Tobacco (Germany) GmbH: Production Statistics 2011

COMPETITIVE POSITIONING

  • Summary 6 British American Tobacco (Germany) GmbH: Competitive Position 2011

Philip Morris GmbH in Tobacco (Germany)

STRATEGIC DIRECTION

KEY FACTS

COMPANY BACKGROUND

PRODUCTION

  • Summary 8 Philip Morris GmbH: Production Statistics 2011

COMPETITIVE POSITIONING

  • Summary 9 Philip Morris GmbH: Competitive Position 2011

Pöschl Tabak Gmbh & Co KG in Tobacco (Germany)

STRATEGIC DIRECTION

KEY FACTS

COMPANY BACKGROUND

PRODUCTION

  • Summary 12 Pöschl Tabak GmbH & Co KG: Production Statistics 2011

COMPETITIVE POSITIONING

  • Summary 13 Pöschl Tabak GmbH & Co KG: Competitive Position 2011

Reemtsma Cigarettenfabriken GmbH in Tobacco (Germany)

STRATEGIC DIRECTION

KEY FACTS

COMPANY BACKGROUND

PRODUCTION

  • Summary 16 Reemtsma Cigarettenfabriken GmbH: Production Statistics 2011

COMPETITIVE POSITIONING

  • Summary 17 Reemtsma Cigarettenfabriken GmbH: Competitive Position 2011

Cigarettes in Germany - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • Since the introduction of the smoking ban in public buildings including food outlets, the weather has played an important role in the consumption patterns of cigarettes in Germany. When the weather is favourable, smokers spend the bulk of the time outside, which helps to boost demand. Especially in restaurants, bars and pubs, where most of smoking is carried out in a social environment, good weather plays an important role in improving sales, as smokers are able to sit outdoors.

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

  • Philip Morris maintained its leading position with a 38% volume share in 2011. Its premium brand, Marlboro, remains the leading brand in cigarettes in 2011, but its share declined from 2008 to 2011 due to the growing price-sensitivity of consumers. However, the company’s value-for-money brands L&M, f6 and Chesterfield registered volume growth.

NEW PRODUCT DEVELOPMENTS

  • Summary 18 Cigarettes - New Product Launches

DISTRIBUTION

PROSPECTS

  • In spite of the planned tax rises every year up to 2015, cigarette sales volumes are not expected to decline drastically over the 2011-2016 period. This is mainly due to the small tax rises that the government has introduced per year, which are not expected to have a noticeable effect on consumer demand. The marketing activities of the leading cigarette manufacturers will also contribute to maintaining stability in cigarettes.

CATEGORY BACKGROUND

Cigarettes: price bands

  • Summary 19 Cigarette Price Band Definitions

Cigarettes: menthol/standard

Cigarettes: filter/non-filter

Cigarettes: carbon/standard filter

Cigarettes: filter length

Cigarettes: regular vs slims vs superslims

Cigarettes: pack size

Cigarettes: pack type

CATEGORY DATA

  • Table 15 Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: Volume 2006-2011
  • Table 16 Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: Value 2006-2011
  • Table 17 Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: % Volume Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 18 Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: % Value Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 19 Sales of Cigarettes by Price Band: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 20 Sales of Cigarettes by Standard/Menthol: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 21 Sales of Cigarettes by Tobacco Type: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 22 Sales of Cigarettes by Filter Vs Non-filter: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 23 Sales of Filter Cigarettes by Carbon Vs Non-carbon: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 24 Sales of Cigarettes by Length: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 25 Sales of Cigarettes by Regular/Slim/Superslim: % Volume Breakdown 2007-2011
  • Table 26 Sales of Cigarettes by Pack Size: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 27 Sales of Cigarettes by Pack Type: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 28 Cigarettes Company Shares 2007-2011
  • Table 29 Cigarettes Brand Shares 2008-2011
  • Table 30 Sales of Cigarettes by Distribution Format: % Analysis 2006-2011
  • Table 31 Cigarettes: Production, Imports and Exports: Total Volume 2006-2011
  • Table 32 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: Volume 2011-2016
  • Table 33 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: Value 2011-2016
  • Table 34 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: % Volume Growth 2011-2016
  • Table 35 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: % Value Growth 2011-2016
  • Table 36 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Price Band: % Volume Breakdown 2011-2016
  • Table 37 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Standard/Menthol: % Volume Breakdown 2011-2016
  • Table 38 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tobacco Type: % Volume Breakdown 2011-2016
  • Table 39 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Filter Vs Non-filter: % Volume Breakdown 2011-2016
  • Table 40 Forecast Sales of Filter Cigarettes by Carbon Vs Non-carbon: % Volume Breakdown 2011-2016
  • Table 41 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Length: % Volume Breakdown 2011-2016
  • Table 42 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Regular/Slim/Superslim: % Volume Breakdown 2011-2016
  • Table 43 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Pack Size: % Volume Breakdown 2011-2016
  • Table 44 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Pack Type: % Volume Breakdown 2011-2016

Cigars in Germany - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • Cigar and cigarillo (excluding eco-cigarillos) smoking has a long history in Germany, with the stereotypical public image of cigars tending to be of premium hand-rolled products smoked usually by older men, whereas cigarillos are mostly purchased by younger smokers. In reality, machine-made cigars and cigarillos account for the bulk of total volume sales. Overall, cigar smoking is still far more popular among men than women.

HANDMADE VERSUS MACHINE MANUFACTURED SPLITS

  • Table 45 Sales of Cigars by Handmade vs Machine-made: % Volume/Value Breakdown 2007-2011

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

  • Cigars is quite a fragmented category in Germany, with only one company managing to hold a double-digit volume share - Dannemann . The company managed to increase its share in the review period. Its position can primarily be attributed to its well-performing Dannemann Moods brand, which is widely recognised and available almost everywhere.

NEW PRODUCT DEVELOPMENTS

  • Summary 20 Cigars - New Product Launches

DISTRIBUTION

PROSPECTS

  • Overall cigars is expected to grow in volume sales and value sales in the forecast period. Most products in cigars are expected to experience volume growth, with the exception of large cigars. The volume growth of overall cigars will be particularly driven by the largest category, cigarillos.

CATEGORY DATA

  • Table 46 Sales of Cigars by Category: Volume 2006-2011
  • Table 47 Sales of Cigars by Category: Value 2006-2011
  • Table 48 Sales of Cigars by Category: % Volume Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 49 Sales of Cigars by Category: % Value Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 50 Sales of Cigars by Handmade vs Machine-manufactured: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 51 Sales of Cigars by Handmade vs Machine-manufactured: % Value Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 52 Company Shares of Cigars Excluding Cigarillos 2007-2011
  • Table 53 Brand Shares of Cigars Excluding Cigarillos 2008-2011
  • Table 54 Company Shares of Cigarillos 2007-2011
  • Table 55 Brand Shares of Cigarillos 2008-2011
  • Table 56 Sales of Cigars by Distribution Format: % Analysis 2006-2011
  • Table 57 Forecast Sales of Cigars by Category: Volume 2011-2016
  • Table 58 Forecast Sales of Cigars by Category: Value 2011-2016
  • Table 59 Forecast Sales of Cigars by Category: % Volume Growth 2011-2016
  • Table 60 Forecast Sales of Cigars by Category: % Value Growth 2011-2016

Smokeless Tobacco in Germany - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • Smokeless tobacco is a niche product in Germany, with the majority of products having no sales largely due to EU law or a lack of tradition in consuming the products. Within smokeless tobacco, the only product present up to 2011 remained dry snuff, which does have a long tradition in the country. However, the size of the consumer group that uses the product is shrinking in spite of the marketing efforts of the leading player, Pöschl Tabak, to promote it among the youth. Thus, dry snuff lost volume sales, though value sales rose due to the rise in unit prices in 2011.

DISTRIBUTION

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

  • Pöschl Tabak dominated snuff in 2011. Its main brand Gletscherprise, which celebrated its 40th anniversary in 2011, had a 48% share and is the most important brand in smokeless tobacco. Pöschl Tabak has a large product range and its Gawith Apricot brand had a volume share of 19% in 2011. The brand benefited from the consumer preference for fruity flavours.

NEW PRODUCT DEVELOPMENTS

PROSPECTS

  • Smokeless tobacco is expected to decline quite strongly in volume terms and to a smaller extent in constant value terms over 2011-2016, as consumers are turning away from the products to other categories in tobacco. It is unlikely that these products will be accepted by smokers as an alternative to cigarettes and other tobacco products in the forecast period.

CATEGORY DATA

  • Table 61 Sales of Smokeless Tobacco by Category: Volume 2006-2011
  • Table 62 Sales of Smokeless Tobacco by Category: Value 2006-2011
  • Table 63 Sales of Smokeless Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 64 Sales of Smokeless Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 65 Company Shares of Smokeless Tobacco 2007-2011
  • Table 66 Brand Shares of Smokeless Tobacco 2008-2011
  • Table 67 Sales of Smokless Tobacco by Distribution Format: % Analysis 2006-2011
  • Table 68 Forecast Sales of Smokeless Tobacco by Category: Volume 2011-2016
  • Table 69 Forecast Sales of Smokeless Tobacco by Category: Value 2011-2016
  • Table 70 Forecast Sales of Smokeless Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2011-2016
  • Table 71 Forecast Sales of Smokeless Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2011-2016

Smoking Tobacco in Germany - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • Smoking tobacco clocked stronger volume growth in 2011 compared to 2010 despite the slower performance of RYO tobacco, the backbone of smoking tobacco products in Germany. The stronger performance derived from a surge in sales of the much smaller pipe tobacco, which after two years of volume decline, made a comeback in 2011.

The Role and Effect of Cannabis/Marijuana

DISTRIBUTION

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

  • Top multinational cigarette companies were also the leaders in smoking tobacco in Germany in 2011. Reemtsma, British American Tobacco and Philip Morris occupy the top three spots, with BAT’s Pall Mall as the leading brand. Philip Morris’s Chesterfield is its flagship brand in smoking tobacco, while Reemtsma is present through John Player Special. The brands’ good presence within cigarettes has helped to support strong sales in smoking tobacco too.

NEW PRODUCT DEVELOPMENTS

  • Summary 21 Smoking Tobacco - New Product Launches

PROSPECTS

  • Smoking tobacco is expected to increase in volume sales over the 2011-2016 period, although its growth will be restrained as a result of the increased taxation that makes both RYO and pipe tobacco more expensive, narrowing the price gap with cigarettes. As the price advantage of the smoking tobacco products gets eroded with the increased taxation, there will be tougher competition towards 2016.

CATEGORY DATA

  • Table 72 Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: Volume 2006-2011
  • Table 73 Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: Value 2006-2011
  • Table 74 Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 75 Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 76 Company Shares of RYO Tobacco 2007-2011
  • Table 77 Brand Shares of RYO Tobacco 2008-2011
  • Table 78 Company Shares of Pipe Tobacco 2007-2011
  • Table 79 Brand Shares of Pipe Tobacco 2008-2011
  • Table 80 Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Distribution Format: % Analysis 2006-2011
  • Table 81 Forecast Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: Volume 2011-2016
  • Table 82 Forecast Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: Value 2011-2016
  • Table 83 Forecast Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2011-2016
  • Table 84 Forecast Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2011-2016

Segmentation

Segmentation

This market research report includes the following:

  • Tobacco
    • Cigarettes
      • High Tar Cigarettes
      • Mid Tar Cigarettes
      • Low Tar Cigarettes
      • Ultra Low Tar Cigarettes
    • Cigars
      • Cigars Excluding Cigarillos
        • Large Cigars
        • Standard Cigars
        • Small Cigars
      • Cigarillos
    • Smoking Tobacco
      • RYO Tobacco
      • Pipe Tobacco
    • Smokeless Tobacco
      • Chewing Tobacco
        • Asian-Style Chewing Tobacco
        • US-Style Chewing Tobacco
        • Other Chewing Tobacco
      • Snuff
        • Moist Snuff
          • US-Style Moist Snuff ('Dip')
            • Loose US-Style Moist Snuff
            • Portion US-Style Moist Snuff
          • Swedish-Style Snus
            • Loose Swedish-Style Snus
            • Portion Swedish-Style Snus
          • Asian Style Creamy Snuff
        • Dry Snuff
        • Hard Snuff
    • Cigarettes Including RYO Stick Equivalent
      • High Tar Cigarettes
      • Mid Tar Cigarettes
      • Low Tar Cigarettes
      • Ultra Low Tar Cigarettes
      • RYO Cigarettes

Statistics Included

Statistics Included

For each category and subcategory you will receive the following data in Excel format:

From Passport

  • Market sizes
  • Company shares
  • Brand shares
  • Distribution
  • Analysis by type
  • Cigarettes by blend
  • Cigarettes by carbon filter/non-carbon filter
  • Cigarettes by filtered/unfiltered
  • Cigarettes by length
  • Cigarettes by pack size
  • Cigarettes by pack type
  • Cigarettes by price band
  • Cigarettes by regular/slim/superslim
  • Cigarettes by standard/menthol
  • Illicit trade penetration
  • Pricing
  • Products by ingredient
  • Products by ingredient
  • Smoking population - number of adult smokers
  • Smoking prevalence - % of adult population
  • Taxation
  • Trade statistics - volume

Market size details:

  • Retail volume
  • Retail volume % growth
  • Retail volume per capita
  • Retail value retail selling price % growth
  • Retail value retail selling price local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Retail value retail selling price per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Illicit trade volume
  • Illicit trade volume % growth
  • Illicit trade volume per capita
  • Retail volume (sticks)
  • Retail volume (sticks) % growth
  • Retail volume (sticks) per capita
  • Retail plus illicit trade
  • Retail plus illicit trade % growth
  • Retail plus illicit trade per capita

Methodology

Methodology

Global insight and local knowledge

With 40 years’ experience of developed and emerging markets, Euromonitor International’s research method is built on a unique combination of specialist industry knowledge and in-country research expertise.

This approach is what enables us to achieve our goal of building a market consensus view of size, shape and trends across the full distribution universe of each category. We factor in whichever channels are relevant, from large-scale grocery to direct sellers, from discount stores to local mom-and-pop outlets.

Industry specialists

Each industry we cover is managed by an Industry Manager and team of Industry Analysts who research and report on their specialist categories all year round.

Our collaborative approach to research means that these industry teams are in constant dialogue with industry players and opinion formers. The planning of our research programmes reflects latest market trends and industry events. In completing each update project, this provides invaluable input to the testing, review and finalisation of our data.

The specialist in-house teams bring together findings from all stages of the annual research process. They work closely with in-country analysts, assess and challenge data and exercise final editorial control over the publication of new data and analysis.

Country and regional analysts

Our in-country analyst network is managed by country and regional analysts in our offices around the world. Working closely with each in-country team, the regional research management team ensures that all country researchers are well schooled in best practices, from the information collected in store checks, to the dialogue we build in trade surveys. Our country analysts ensure that national reports explain the data trends and provide clear insights into the local market’s dynamics.

In-country research network

To deliver fresh insights every year in countries all around the world, we believe the strongest approach is to use analysts on the ground. They bring fluency in local language, physical proximity to the best sources, an ability to engage directly with local industry contacts, and an awareness of how the products and services we study are advertised, sold and consumed. These are essential parts of our ability to report incisively on these markets.

Research Methodology

Our research methods

Each Euromonitor International industry report is based on a core set of research techniques:

Desk research

With industry events, corporate activity, trends and new product introductions tracked year round by our industry team, desk research provides a starting point for the in-country research programme. Our in-country researchers will access the following sources:

  • National statistics offices governmental and official sources
  • National and international trade press
  • National and international trade associations
  • Industry study groups and other semi-official sources
  • Company financials and annual reports
  • Broker reports
  • Online databases
  • The financial, business and mainstream press

Accessing sources is only the first step. The ability to interpret and reconcile often conflicting information across multiple sources is a key aspect of the added value we provide.

Store checks

Store checks are an integral part of our methods for product industries. Carried out on the ground across a relevant mix of channels, the information gained provides first-hand insights into the products we are researching, specifically:

  • Place: We track products in all relevant channels, selective and mass, store and non-store
  • Product: What are innovations in products, pack sizes and formats?
  • Price: What are brand price variations across channels, how do private label’s prices compare to those of branded goods?
  • Promotion: What are marketing and merchandising trends, offers, discounts and tie-ins?

Findings are cross-referenced with brand share data analysis. The results, combined with the findings of desk research, provide a strong basis for identifying key areas of questioning to take forward into our trade survey.

Trade survey

Interaction with global players at corporate HQ and regional levels is complemented by unique local data and insights from our in-country trade surveys around the world. Through the high profile of the Euromonitor International brand, we are able to talk directly to a wide range of sources and therefore inform our analysis with the knowledge and opinions of the leading operators in the market.

Trade surveys allow us to:

  • Fill gaps in available published data per company
  • Generate a consensus view of the size, structure and strategic direction of the category
  • Access year-in-progress data where published sources are out of date
  • Evaluate the experts’ views on current trends and market developments

In building our composite industry view, we engage with a variety of personnel in key players at all points of the supply chain: materials suppliers, manufacturers, distributors, retailers and service operators. We also interview desk research sources: industry associations; study groups; and third party observers from the trade and financial press.

Our objective is to engage in conversation with trade sources in which we exchange ideas and views on the industry, sharing our work-in-progress findings on supply/demand dynamics and potential. This dialogue enhances both parties’ understanding of the local market. The scope and reach of our trade survey also serves to eliminate bias (intentional and unintentional) from any single source.

Company analysis

At a global level, our company research combines our mix of industry interaction and use of secondary sources such as annual accounts, broker reports, financial press and databases. From a data perspective, the aim is to build “top-down” estimates of major players’ total global and regional sales.

At a country level, in line with local reporting requirements, we access annual accounts, national-specific company databases and local company websites. These are all invaluable sources as we build a view of each domestic player’s size and position within very specific categories of the industry.

Forecasts

Data projections and future performance analysis are key elements of Euromonitor International’s market intelligence. Working with historic trends of 15 years or more, a key aspect of our trade survey is to engage industry insider views of the next five years. Will volumes maintain their historic trend? Will price increases or falls of recent years continue, accelerate or slow down? Will increasing demand for one product cannibalise sales of another?

Forecasts represent many of the essential conclusions we have reached about the current state of the market, how it works and how it behaves under different macro and micro conditions. Our written analysis will state the assumptions and the trade opinion behind whether our predictions are optimistic or pessimistic, so that clients can use our statistical forecasts with confidence.

Data validation

All data is subjected to an exhaustive review process, at country, regional and global levels.

The interpretation and review of sources and data inputs forms a central part of the collaboration between industry teams and country researchers. Numbers are delivered to regional and global offices with an audit trail of sources and calculations to allow for a thorough evaluation of data sense and integrity.

Upon completion of the country review phase, data is then reviewed on a comparative basis at regional and then at a global level. Comparative checks are carried out on per capita consumption and spending levels, growth rates, patterns of category and subcategory breakdowns and distribution of sales by channel. Top-down estimates are reviewed against bottom-up regional and global market and company sales totals.

Where marked differences are seen between proximate country markets or ones at similar developmental levels, supplementary research is conducted in the relevant countries to confirm and/or amend those findings. This process ensures international comparability across the database, that consistent category and subcategory definitions have been used and that all data has been correctly tested. We make sure that possible discrepancies between different published sources have been reconciled and that our interpretation of opinion and expectation from each country’s trade sources has been applied to form a coherent international pattern.

Market analysis

Another integral part of all our research programmes is that all Euromonitor International data is accompanied by clear written analysis. From a research perspective, this explains and substantiates data findings. From a client perspective, this offers unique insights into local consumption trends, routes to market, brand preferences, channel dynamics and future trends.

Our country level analysis also provides invaluable input into the ability of our central industry specialist teams to marry local insights with strategic conclusions on the direction of the market regionally and globally.

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