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Country Report

Tobacco in Greece

Oct 2012

Price: US$1,900

About this Report

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Economic downturn negatively affects tobacco

In 2011, Greece’s smoking population continued to be higher than the western European average despite the reduction of consumer disposable income due to the economic crisis which negatively affected tobacco. Sales of cigars saw very high losses as even those who could still afford to pay for luxurious treats were reluctant to do so in the pessimistic climate of 2011. A mass migration from cigarettes to RYO tobacco was also seen as the latter is perceived as a cheaper solution. A number of people also opted to quit smoking, although this only applied to a small proportion of the smoking population given that many smokers found smoking a relief from the stress of daily life in a poor economy.

Failure to enforce the smoking ban

Although the smoking ban is officially in place in Greece, for one more consecutive year it failed to be implemented. On-trade venues, ranging from night clubs to restaurants and cafés, saw their sales decline sharply as a result of a decline in footfall due to the recession. Operators were not prepared to accept further losses by customers who reduced their visits because they were not able to smoke. Smoking culture is very strong in Greece across all social groups and operators therefore decided to boycott the measure and allow customers to continue smoking. Only a few operators are starting to slowly implement the measures and this mostly applies to chains and some top-end restaurants. However, the measure is still widely ignored by cafés and bars. The smoking ban therefore continues not to have an impact on tobacco sales.

Taxation increases force up unit prices of tobacco products

As the government was forced to employ a series of austerity measures to increase public revenue, a tax increase on luxury products such as tobacco and alcoholic drinks became unavoidable. Since 2008, tobacco taxes increased several times, leading to increases in the final selling price of over 30% as of 2011. The increase in prices had a huge effect on smoking patterns, and more specifically it highly benefited RYO tobacco as this became a more affordable smoking solution. Although migration to economy cigarettes was evident, this changed in the second half of 2011 as new legislation affecting minimum sale price of tobacco products resulted in a gap between premium, mid-priced and economy prices. Consumers therefore felt that it was not necessary to change and sacrifice brand loyalty.

Newsagent-tobacconists/kiosks remains the key distribution channel for tobacco products

More than 70% of volume sales of cigarettes and RYO tobacco in Greece take place in newsagents-tobacconists/kiosks in 2011. Larger kiosks, situated in central locations, also sell cigars and cigarillos as well as pipe tobacco. Being located in every neighbourhood and often staying open for 24 hours, kiosks are a byword for tobacco retailing in the mind of Greek consumers. The proliferation of large department stores, which sell cigarettes in special areas within their premises, as well as convenience stores, did not result in a significant change in distribution trends. Greeks continue to purchase tobacco products in their neighbourhood kiosks, with owners often having friendly relations with many of their customers due to their proximity to and long-term relationship with local consumers. Internet retailing accounts for only a fraction of sales given that only cigars are sold through the non-store channel, whereas vending is still banned in Greece.

A gloomy future is forecast for tobacco in Greece

Smoking rates are declining in most European countries and this applies to Greece as well, although it is the continuously declining disposable incomes that force numerous smokers to quit, rather than rising health awareness or the implementation of a ban on smoking in public places. Manufacturers are expected to see their sales declining over the forecast period. Contraband sales are also forecast to have an effect on sales as more consumers will be keen to find a solution to reduce the cost of smoking.


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Overview

Discover the latest market trends and uncover sources of future market growth for the Tobacco industry in Greece with research from Euromonitor's team of in-country analysts.

Find hidden opportunities in the most current research data available, understand competitive threats with our detailed market analysis, and plan your corporate strategy with our expert qualitative analysis and growth projections.

If you're in the Tobacco industry in Greece, our research will save you time and money while empowering you to make informed, profitable decisions.

When you purchase this report, you also get the data and the content from these category reports in Greece for free:

The Tobacco in Greece market research report includes:

  • Analysis of key supply-side and demand trends
  • Detailed segmentation of international and local products
  • Historic volumes and values, company and brand market shares
  • Five year forecasts of market trends and market growth
  • Production, imports by origin, exports by destination
  • Robust and transparent market research methodology, conducted in-country

Our market research reports answer questions such as:

  • What is the market size of Tobacco in Greece?
  • What are the major brands in Greece?
  • Which sector of the tobacco products market is the largest by value sales in Greece?
  • Which sector of the tobacco products market has been growing the fastest, by volume and value, in Greece?
  • Which sector is the most heavily taxed in Greece?
  • Which companies dominate in the total tobacco market in Greece in terms of market share?
  • What is the distribution channel split for the tobacco products market in Greece?

Why buy this report?

  • Gain competitive intelligence about market leaders
  • Track key industry trends, opportunities and threats
  • Inform your marketing, brand, strategy and market development, sales and supply functions

This industry report originates from Passport, our Tobacco market research database.

Table of Contents

Table of Contents

Tobacco in Greece - Industry Overview

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Economic downturn negatively affects tobacco

Failure to enforce the smoking ban

Taxation increases force up unit prices of tobacco products

Newsagent-tobacconists/kiosks remains the key distribution channel for tobacco products

A gloomy future is forecast for tobacco in Greece

OPERATING ENVIRONMENT

Legislative overview/FCTC ratification

  • Summary 1 Legislation Summary at a Glance

EU directives

Minimum legal smoking age

Smoking prevalence

  • Table 1 Smoking Prevalence in Adult Population 2006-2011
  • Table 2 Number of Smokers by Gender 2006-2011

Tar levels

Health warnings

Advertising and sponsorship

Point-of-sale display bans

Smoking in public places

Low ignition propensity (LIP) regulation

Reduced harm

Electronic cigarettes

Litigation

Death by cause

  • Table 3 Death by Cause 2007-2011

TAXATION AND PRICING

Duty paid packet marks

Taxation rates

  • Table 4 Taxation and Duty Levies 2006-2011

Average cigarette pack price breakdown

  • Table 5 Average Cigarette Pack Price Breakdown: Brand Examples

PRODUCTION/IMPORTS/EXPORTS

Illicit trade in cigarettes

MARKET INDICATORS

  • Table 6 Illicit Trade Estimate of Cigarettes by Volume 2006-2011

MARKET DATA

  • Table 7 Sales of Tobacco by Category: Volume 2006-2011
  • Table 8 Sales of Tobacco by Category: Value 2006-2011
  • Table 9 Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 10 Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 11 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: Volume 2011-2016
  • Table 12 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: Value 2011-2016
  • Table 13 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2011-2016
  • Table 14 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2011-2016

SOURCES

  • Summary 2 Research Sources

Tobacco in Greece - Company Profiles

British American Tobacco Hellas SA in Tobacco (Greece)

STRATEGIC DIRECTION

KEY FACTS

COMPANY BACKGROUND

PRODUCTION

COMPETITIVE POSITIONING

  • Summary 5 British American Tobacco Hellas SA: Competitive Position 2011

Imperial Tobacco Hellas SA in Tobacco (Greece)

STRATEGIC DIRECTION

KEY FACTS

COMPANY BACKGROUND

PRODUCTION

  • Summary 8 Imperial Tobacco Hellas SA: Production Statistics 2011

COMPETITIVE POSITIONING

  • Summary 9 Imperial Tobacco Hellas SA: Competitive Position 2011

Karelia Tobacco Co Inc in Tobacco (Greece)

STRATEGIC DIRECTION

KEY FACTS

COMPANY BACKGROUND

PRODUCTION

COMPETITIVE POSITIONING

  • Summary 12 Karelia Tobacco Co Inc: Competitive Position 2011

Papastratos Cigarette Manufacturing Co SA in Tobacco (Greece)

STRATEGIC DIRECTION

KEY FACTS

COMPANY BACKGROUND

PRODUCTION

  • Summary 15 Papastratos Cigarette Manufacturing Co SA: Production Statistics 2011

COMPETITIVE POSITIONING

  • Summary 16 Papastratos Cigarette Manufacturing Co SA: Competitive Position 2011

SEKAP SA in Tobacco (Greece)

STRATEGIC DIRECTION

KEY FACTS

COMPANY BACKGROUND

PRODUCTION

COMPETITIVE POSITIONING

  • Summary 19 SEKAP SA: Competitive Position 2011

Cigarettes in Greece - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • Although rapid migration to RYO tobacco continued in 2011, cigarettes still accounted for the bulk of tobacco products sales. The difference in proportion remained very high as trade sources estimated that 93% of smokers continued to prefer cigarettes. Nevertheless this was gradually changing as more smokers, especially those from the younger generation, started to opt for RYO tobacco. This was reflected in negative results for companies that focused mostly on cigarettes.

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

  • The presence of multinationals was very significant in Greek cigarettes in 2011. In terms of domestic players, Karelia Tobacco and SEKAP are the only players, following the acquisition of Papastratos by Philip Morris.

NEW PRODUCT DEVELOPMENTS

  • Summary 20 Cigarettes - New Product Launches

DISTRIBUTION

PROSPECTS

  • Price wars are expected to intensify over the forecast period, as most players will have to compete strongly to maintain their brand share. At a time when brand loyalty is fading, with financially struggling consumers opting for the brand that offers the best value for money, the only means left for companies to survive is to decrease their prices. The price war was initiated in 2011 by Papastratos, following the decline of its flagship brand Marlboro and more brands are forecast to follow this example in the forecast period if cigarettes continue to decline at a rapid pace.

CATEGORY BACKGROUND

Cigarettes: price bands

  • Summary 21 Cigarette Price Band Definitions

Cigarettes: menthol/standard

Flavour threads and capsule filters

Cigarettes: filter/non-filter

Cigarettes: carbon/standard filter

Cigarettes: filter length

Cigarettes: regular vs slims vs superslim

Cigarettes: pack size

Cigarettes: pack type

CATEGORY DATA

  • Table 15 Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: Volume 2006-2011
  • Table 16 Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: Value 2006-2011
  • Table 17 Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: % Volume Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 18 Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: % Value Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 19 Sales of Cigarettes by Price Band: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 20 Sales of Cigarettes by Standard/Menthol: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 21 Sales of Cigarettes by Tobacco Type: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 22 Sales of Cigarettes by Filter Vs Non-filter: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 23 Sales of Filter Cigarettes by Carbon Vs Non-carbon: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 24 Sales of Cigarettes by Length: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 25 Sales of Cigarettes by Regular/Slim/Superslim: % Volume Breakdown 2007-2011
  • Table 26 Sales of Cigarettes by Pack Size: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 27 Sales of Cigarettes by Pack Type: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 28 Cigarettes Company Shares 2007-2011
  • Table 29 Cigarettes Brand Shares 2008-2011
  • Table 30 Sales of Cigarettes by Distribution Format: % Analysis 2006-2011
  • Table 31 Cigarettes: Production, Imports and Exports: Total Volume 2006-2011
  • Table 32 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: Volume 2011-2016
  • Table 33 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: Value 2011-2016
  • Table 34 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: % Volume Growth 2011-2016
  • Table 35 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: % Value Growth 2011-2016
  • Table 36 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Price Band: % Volume Breakdown 2011-2016
  • Table 37 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Standard/Menthol: % Volume Breakdown 2011-2016
  • Table 38 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tobacco Type: % Volume Breakdown 2011-2016
  • Table 39 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Filter Vs Non-filter: % Volume Breakdown 2011-2016
  • Table 40 Forecast Sales of Filter Cigarettes by Carbon Vs Non-carbon: % Volume Breakdown 2011-2016
  • Table 41 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Length: % Volume Breakdown 2011-2016
  • Table 42 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Regular/Slim/Superslim: % Volume Breakdown 2011-2016
  • Table 43 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Pack Size: % Volume Breakdown 2011-2016
  • Table 44 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Pack Type: % Volume Breakdown 2011-2016

Cigars in Greece - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • Cigar smoking in Greece was traditionally a habit of the affluent or a means of showing off for male consumers from lower socio-economic groups. However, this tradition was gradually changing in 2011 given that only the very affluent could afford to buy cigars. Cigarillos continued to apply predominately to women, although there was a trend of men smoking cigarillos when they traded down from cigars. Cigarillos appealed to non-regular smokers and even those who only smoked cigarillos did not do so daily.

HANDMADE VERSUS MACHINE-MANUFACTURED SPLITS

  • Table 45 Sales of Cigars by Handmade vs Machine-made: % Volume/Value Breakdown 2007-2011

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

  • Balli SA is the leading distributor in Greek cigars with a volume share of 69% in 2011. The company’s share declined by five percentage points in 2011, as Balli imports primarily Cuban cigars and the trend in 2011 favoured cheaper products from neighbouring countries.

NEW PRODUCT DEVELOPMENTS

  • Summary 22 Cigars - New Product Launches

DISTRIBUTION

PROSPECTS

  • It is highly unlikely that sales of cigars will show any signs of recovery in the short term. There are no hopes for the Greek economy to recover in the short term and given that cigars are a luxury purchase their consumption is strongly linked to disposable incomes. Even affluent consumers will see their incomes reduced in the forecast period and in this context the consumer base for cigars will decline even further.

CATEGORY DATA

  • Table 46 Sales of Cigars by Category: Volume 2006-2011
  • Table 47 Sales of Cigars by Category: Value 2006-2011
  • Table 48 Sales of Cigars by Category: % Volume Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 49 Sales of Cigars by Category: % Value Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 50 Sales of Cigars by Handmade vs Machine-manufactured: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 51 Sales of Cigars by Handmade vs Machine-manufactured: % Value Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 52 Company Shares of Cigars Excluding Cigarillos 2007-2011
  • Table 53 Brand Shares of Cigars Excluding Cigarillos 2008-2011
  • Table 54 Company Shares of Cigarillos 2007-2011
  • Table 55 Brand Shares of Cigarillos 2008-2011
  • Table 56 Sales of Cigars by Distribution Format: % Analysis 2006-2011
  • Table 57 Forecast Sales of Cigars by Category: Volume 2011-2016
  • Table 58 Forecast Sales of Cigars by Category: Value 2011-2016
  • Table 59 Forecast Sales of Cigars by Category: % Volume Growth 2011-2016
  • Table 60 Forecast Sales of Cigars by Category: % Value Growth 2011-2016

Smokeless Tobacco in Greece - Category Analysis

TRENDS

  • In 2011, sales of smokeless tobacco remain negligible in Greece. Such products are available in very few selected points of sale and their appeal to Greek consumers is minor.

Smoking Tobacco in Greece - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • Pipe tobacco was generally preferred by older Greek smokers and is considered to be a habit of the past. For younger smokers, pipes were considered out of fashion and demand for pipe tobacco therefore declined in 2011. The consumer base of RYO tobacco, however, was wider and continued to grow.

THE ROLE AND EFFECT OF CANNABIS/MARIJUANA

DISTRIBUTION

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

  • With a 55% volume share deriving from Old Holborn, Gallaher Hellas is the leading player in smoking tobacco in 2011. Imperial Tobacco was second with a 29% share with its Drum brand.

NEW PRODUCT DEVELOPMENTS

  • Summary 23 Smoking Tobacco - New Product Launches

PROSPECTS

  • The economic downturn is expected to have a positive impact on RYO tobacco sales, with many price-sensitive consumers trading down from manufactured cigarettes. The proportion of consumers smoking RYO tobacco will increase and the consumer base will become wider in terms of its demographic composition. Pipe tobacco however will remain a niche area over the forecast period, primarily appealing to older consumers.

CATEGORY DATA

  • Table 61 Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: Volume 2006-2011
  • Table 62 Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: Value 2006-2011
  • Table 63 Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 64 Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 65 Company Shares of RYO Tobacco 2007-2011
  • Table 66 Brand Shares of RYO Tobacco 2008-2011
  • Table 67 Company Shares of Pipe Tobacco 2007-2011
  • Table 68 Brand Shares of Pipe Tobacco 2008-2011
  • Table 69 Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Distribution Format: % Analysis 2006-2011
  • Table 70 Forecast Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: Volume 2011-2016
  • Table 71 Forecast Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: Value 2011-2016
  • Table 72 Forecast Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2011-2016
  • Table 73 Forecast Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2011-2016

Segmentation

Segmentation

This market research report includes the following:

  • Tobacco
    • Cigarettes
      • High Tar Cigarettes
      • Mid Tar Cigarettes
      • Low Tar Cigarettes
      • Ultra Low Tar Cigarettes
    • Cigars
      • Cigars Excluding Cigarillos
        • Large Cigars
        • Standard Cigars
        • Small Cigars
      • Cigarillos
    • Smoking Tobacco
      • RYO Tobacco
      • Pipe Tobacco
    • Smokeless Tobacco
      • Chewing Tobacco
        • Asian-Style Chewing Tobacco
        • US-Style Chewing Tobacco
        • Other Chewing Tobacco
      • Snuff
        • Moist Snuff
          • US-Style Moist Snuff ('Dip')
            • Loose US-Style Moist Snuff
            • Portion US-Style Moist Snuff
          • Swedish-Style Snus
            • Loose Swedish-Style Snus
            • Portion Swedish-Style Snus
          • Asian Style Creamy Snuff
        • Dry Snuff
        • Hard Snuff
    • Cigarettes Including RYO Stick Equivalent
      • High Tar Cigarettes
      • Mid Tar Cigarettes
      • Low Tar Cigarettes
      • Ultra Low Tar Cigarettes
      • RYO Cigarettes

Statistics Included

Statistics Included

For each category and subcategory you will receive the following data in Excel format:

From Passport

  • Market sizes
  • Company shares
  • Brand shares
  • Distribution
  • Analysis by type
  • Cigarettes by blend
  • Cigarettes by carbon filter/non-carbon filter
  • Cigarettes by filtered/unfiltered
  • Cigarettes by length
  • Cigarettes by pack size
  • Cigarettes by pack type
  • Cigarettes by price band
  • Cigarettes by regular/slim/superslim
  • Cigarettes by standard/menthol
  • Illicit trade penetration
  • Pricing
  • Products by ingredient
  • Products by ingredient
  • Smoking population - number of adult smokers
  • Smoking prevalence - % of adult population
  • Taxation
  • Trade statistics - volume

Market size details:

  • Retail volume
  • Retail volume % growth
  • Retail volume per capita
  • Retail value retail selling price % growth
  • Retail value retail selling price local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Retail value retail selling price per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Illicit trade volume
  • Illicit trade volume % growth
  • Illicit trade volume per capita
  • Retail volume (sticks)
  • Retail volume (sticks) % growth
  • Retail volume (sticks) per capita
  • Retail plus illicit trade
  • Retail plus illicit trade % growth
  • Retail plus illicit trade per capita

Methodology

Methodology

Global insight and local knowledge

With 40 years’ experience of developed and emerging markets, Euromonitor International’s research method is built on a unique combination of specialist industry knowledge and in-country research expertise.

This approach is what enables us to achieve our goal of building a market consensus view of size, shape and trends across the full distribution universe of each category. We factor in whichever channels are relevant, from large-scale grocery to direct sellers, from discount stores to local mom-and-pop outlets.

Industry specialists

Each industry we cover is managed by an Industry Manager and team of Industry Analysts who research and report on their specialist categories all year round.

Our collaborative approach to research means that these industry teams are in constant dialogue with industry players and opinion formers. The planning of our research programmes reflects latest market trends and industry events. In completing each update project, this provides invaluable input to the testing, review and finalisation of our data.

The specialist in-house teams bring together findings from all stages of the annual research process. They work closely with in-country analysts, assess and challenge data and exercise final editorial control over the publication of new data and analysis.

Country and regional analysts

Our in-country analyst network is managed by country and regional analysts in our offices around the world. Working closely with each in-country team, the regional research management team ensures that all country researchers are well schooled in best practices, from the information collected in store checks, to the dialogue we build in trade surveys. Our country analysts ensure that national reports explain the data trends and provide clear insights into the local market’s dynamics.

In-country research network

To deliver fresh insights every year in countries all around the world, we believe the strongest approach is to use analysts on the ground. They bring fluency in local language, physical proximity to the best sources, an ability to engage directly with local industry contacts, and an awareness of how the products and services we study are advertised, sold and consumed. These are essential parts of our ability to report incisively on these markets.

Research Methodology

Our research methods

Each Euromonitor International industry report is based on a core set of research techniques:

Desk research

With industry events, corporate activity, trends and new product introductions tracked year round by our industry team, desk research provides a starting point for the in-country research programme. Our in-country researchers will access the following sources:

  • National statistics offices governmental and official sources
  • National and international trade press
  • National and international trade associations
  • Industry study groups and other semi-official sources
  • Company financials and annual reports
  • Broker reports
  • Online databases
  • The financial, business and mainstream press

Accessing sources is only the first step. The ability to interpret and reconcile often conflicting information across multiple sources is a key aspect of the added value we provide.

Store checks

Store checks are an integral part of our methods for product industries. Carried out on the ground across a relevant mix of channels, the information gained provides first-hand insights into the products we are researching, specifically:

  • Place: We track products in all relevant channels, selective and mass, store and non-store
  • Product: What are innovations in products, pack sizes and formats?
  • Price: What are brand price variations across channels, how do private label’s prices compare to those of branded goods?
  • Promotion: What are marketing and merchandising trends, offers, discounts and tie-ins?

Findings are cross-referenced with brand share data analysis. The results, combined with the findings of desk research, provide a strong basis for identifying key areas of questioning to take forward into our trade survey.

Trade survey

Interaction with global players at corporate HQ and regional levels is complemented by unique local data and insights from our in-country trade surveys around the world. Through the high profile of the Euromonitor International brand, we are able to talk directly to a wide range of sources and therefore inform our analysis with the knowledge and opinions of the leading operators in the market.

Trade surveys allow us to:

  • Fill gaps in available published data per company
  • Generate a consensus view of the size, structure and strategic direction of the category
  • Access year-in-progress data where published sources are out of date
  • Evaluate the experts’ views on current trends and market developments

In building our composite industry view, we engage with a variety of personnel in key players at all points of the supply chain: materials suppliers, manufacturers, distributors, retailers and service operators. We also interview desk research sources: industry associations; study groups; and third party observers from the trade and financial press.

Our objective is to engage in conversation with trade sources in which we exchange ideas and views on the industry, sharing our work-in-progress findings on supply/demand dynamics and potential. This dialogue enhances both parties’ understanding of the local market. The scope and reach of our trade survey also serves to eliminate bias (intentional and unintentional) from any single source.

Company analysis

At a global level, our company research combines our mix of industry interaction and use of secondary sources such as annual accounts, broker reports, financial press and databases. From a data perspective, the aim is to build “top-down” estimates of major players’ total global and regional sales.

At a country level, in line with local reporting requirements, we access annual accounts, national-specific company databases and local company websites. These are all invaluable sources as we build a view of each domestic player’s size and position within very specific categories of the industry.

Forecasts

Data projections and future performance analysis are key elements of Euromonitor International’s market intelligence. Working with historic trends of 15 years or more, a key aspect of our trade survey is to engage industry insider views of the next five years. Will volumes maintain their historic trend? Will price increases or falls of recent years continue, accelerate or slow down? Will increasing demand for one product cannibalise sales of another?

Forecasts represent many of the essential conclusions we have reached about the current state of the market, how it works and how it behaves under different macro and micro conditions. Our written analysis will state the assumptions and the trade opinion behind whether our predictions are optimistic or pessimistic, so that clients can use our statistical forecasts with confidence.

Data validation

All data is subjected to an exhaustive review process, at country, regional and global levels.

The interpretation and review of sources and data inputs forms a central part of the collaboration between industry teams and country researchers. Numbers are delivered to regional and global offices with an audit trail of sources and calculations to allow for a thorough evaluation of data sense and integrity.

Upon completion of the country review phase, data is then reviewed on a comparative basis at regional and then at a global level. Comparative checks are carried out on per capita consumption and spending levels, growth rates, patterns of category and subcategory breakdowns and distribution of sales by channel. Top-down estimates are reviewed against bottom-up regional and global market and company sales totals.

Where marked differences are seen between proximate country markets or ones at similar developmental levels, supplementary research is conducted in the relevant countries to confirm and/or amend those findings. This process ensures international comparability across the database, that consistent category and subcategory definitions have been used and that all data has been correctly tested. We make sure that possible discrepancies between different published sources have been reconciled and that our interpretation of opinion and expectation from each country’s trade sources has been applied to form a coherent international pattern.

Market analysis

Another integral part of all our research programmes is that all Euromonitor International data is accompanied by clear written analysis. From a research perspective, this explains and substantiates data findings. From a client perspective, this offers unique insights into local consumption trends, routes to market, brand preferences, channel dynamics and future trends.

Our country level analysis also provides invaluable input into the ability of our central industry specialist teams to marry local insights with strategic conclusions on the direction of the market regionally and globally.

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