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Country Report

Tobacco in India

Jan 2013

Price: US$1,900

About this Report

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Cigarettes and cigars witness strong growth

Cigarettes and cigars continued to witness steady growth both in terms of current value and volume in 2011. Growth in consumption was supported by increases in prices by cigarette companies to gain greater value sales compared to previous years. Furthermore, the absence of change in excise taxes also supported the stronger growth of cigarettes and cigars over 2010. Consumers increasingly continued to shift from smoking traditional beedis towards Western economy-priced cigarettes. This trend was particularly prominent in rural India due to a growing awareness of health issues linked with beedi smoking.

Packaging plays a vital role

Packaging continued to play a vital role, and during 2011 Indian tobacco companies placed greater concentration on creating premium-looking packaging to communicate the brands’ message to the consumers. Major tobacco companies revamped packaging of their older brands, with players such as ITC Ltd changing the pack design of one of its oldest brands Berkeley to rejuvenate the economy segment of cigarette smokers. The same activity continued across all brands in cigarettes; even the Beedi manufacturing companies focussed on different pack designs as a means for brand building throughout 2011 especially in rural India.

Illicit trade remains a threat

As of 2011, the retail selling price of cigarettes continued to comprise of 42% taxes and is predicted to increase once again in 2012. The Foreign Direct Investment ban, where the foreign players cannot investment in the manufacture of their cigarette brands in India, which occurred during the later stages of the review period was another factor influencing the growth of illicit trade. This may continue to become more prominent amongst certain foreign branded cigarettes which are popular in India, including Camel, More, Black and Esse. Even though efforts by the central and state governments have reduced illicit trade of foreign brands, such brands continued to be affected by this during 2011.

Advertising through POS becoming more dominant

The only way of advertising tobacco products in India remains through point of sale (POS). Promotions through POS during 2012 included putting up banners, glow sign boards, bill boards and posters to build awareness amongst the smokers.

Cigarette manufacturing companies such as ITC Ltd and Godfrey Phillips India Ltd increasingly converted small and previously unbranded retail shops into their own exclusive branded outlets to showcase their own range of cigarettes to avoid competition in prime locations of metropolitan cities. In particular, ITC promoted its flagship brands Gold Flake and Classic across its own branded outlets, while Philip Morris international fostered its brand, ‘Marlboro’ through its growing number of brand shops. This trend was also supported by manufacturers paying huge incentives to the retailers to sell their brands of cigarettes.

Low tar cigarettes to see growing popularity

An increasing number of female smokers in India continued to drive volume and value sales of low tar over the review period, where in India these are referred as Mild and Ultra mild’s. The demand concentrated across metro cities in India for these products in India. These products are expected to represent an emerging niche as the number of female cigarette smokers develops over the forecast period.


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Overview

Discover the latest market trends and uncover sources of future market growth for the Tobacco industry in India with research from Euromonitor's team of in-country analysts.

Find hidden opportunities in the most current research data available, understand competitive threats with our detailed market analysis, and plan your corporate strategy with our expert qualitative analysis and growth projections.

If you're in the Tobacco industry in India, our research will save you time and money while empowering you to make informed, profitable decisions.

When you purchase this report, you also get the data and the content from these category reports in India for free:

The Tobacco in India market research report includes:

  • Analysis of key supply-side and demand trends
  • Detailed segmentation of international and local products
  • Historic volumes and values, company and brand market shares
  • Five year forecasts of market trends and market growth
  • Production, imports by origin, exports by destination
  • Robust and transparent market research methodology, conducted in-country

Our market research reports answer questions such as:

  • What is the market size of Tobacco in India?
  • What are the major brands in India?
  • Which sector of the tobacco products market is the largest by value sales in India?
  • Which sector of the tobacco products market has been growing the fastest, by volume and value, in India?
  • Which sector is the most heavily taxed in India?
  • Which companies dominate in the total tobacco market in India in terms of market share?
  • What is the distribution channel split for the tobacco products market in India?

Why buy this report?

  • Gain competitive intelligence about market leaders
  • Track key industry trends, opportunities and threats
  • Inform your marketing, brand, strategy and market development, sales and supply functions

This industry report originates from Passport, our Tobacco market research database.

Table of Contents

Table of Contents

Tobacco in India - Industry Overview

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Cigarettes and cigars witness strong growth

Packaging plays a vital role

Illicit trade remains a threat

Advertising through POS becoming more dominant

Low tar cigarettes to see growing popularity

OPERATING ENVIRONMENT

Legislation

  • Summary 1 Legislation Summary at a Glance

Country-specific legislation:

Smoking prevalence

  • Table 1 Smoking Prevalence in Adult Population 2006-2011
  • Table 2 Number of Smokers by Gender 2006-2011

Tar levels

Health warnings

Advertising & sponsorship

Point-of-sale display bans

Smoking in public places

Low ignition propensity (LIP) regulation

‘Reduced harm’

Electronic cigarettes

Litigation

Death by cause

  • Table 3 Death by Cause 2007-2011

TAXATION AND PRICING

Duty paid packet marks

Taxation rates

  • Table 4 Taxation and Duty Levies 2006-2011

Average cigarette pack price breakdown

  • Table 5 Average Cigarette Pack Price Breakdown: Brand Examples

PRODUCTION/IMPORTS/EXPORTS

  • Table 6 Production/Imports/Exports 2006-2011
  • Table 7 Trade Statistics – Flue Cured Virginia Tobacco Auction 2006-2011
  • Table 8 Trade Statistics –Tobacco 2006-2011

Illicit trade in cigarettes

  • Table 9 Illicit Trade Statistics –Tobacco 2006-2011

MARKET INDICATORS

  • Table 10 Illicit Trade Estimate of Cigarettes by Volume 2006-2011

MARKET DATA

  • Table 11 Sales of Tobacco by Category: Volume 2006-2011
  • Table 12 Sales of Tobacco by Category: Value 2006-2011
  • Table 13 Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 14 Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 15 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: Volume 2011-2016
  • Table 16 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: Value 2011-2016
  • Table 17 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2011-2016
  • Table 18 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2011-2016

DEFINITIONS

SOURCES

  • Summary 2 Research Sources

Tobacco in India - Company Profiles

Godfrey Phillips India Ltd in Tobacco (India)

STRATEGIC DIRECTION

KEY FACTS

COMPANY BACKGROUND

PRODUCTION

  • Summary 5 Godfrey Phillips India Ltd: Production Statistics 2009-2011

COMPETITIVE POSITIONING

  • Summary 6 Godfrey Phillips India Ltd: Competitive Position 2011

Golden Tobacco Ltd in Tobacco (India)

STRATEGIC DIRECTION

KEY FACTS

COMPANY BACKGROUND

PRODUCTION

  • Summary 9 Golden Tobacco Ltd: Production Statistics by Segment (sticks)

COMPETITIVE POSITIONING

  • Summary 10 Golden Tobacco Ltd: Competitive Position 2011

ITC Ltd in Tobacco (India)

STRATEGIC DIRECTION

KEY FACTS

COMPANY BACKGROUND

PRODUCTION

  • Summary 13 ITC LTD: Production Statistics by segment (sticks)
  • Summary 14 Third party contract manufacturing: Production Statistics 2009-2011

COMPETITIVE POSITIONING

  • Summary 15 ITC Ltd: Competitive Position 2011

VST Industries Ltd in Tobacco (India)

STRATEGIC DIRECTION

KEY FACTS

COMPANY BACKGROUND

PRODUCTION

  • Summary 18 VST Industries Ltd: Production Statistics 2011

COMPETITIVE POSITIONING

  • Summary 19 VST Industries Ltd: Competitive Position 2011

Cigarettes in India - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • Japan Tobacco International, the third largest cigarette manufacturing company in the world, closed its India operations to concentrate instead on other emerging markets. This decision came after the ban in FDI in April 2010. The foreign companies cannot increase their stake or supply additional funds for domestic operations. However, the company’s plan to increase its stake from 50% to 74% in a joint venture was not successful. This decision of Japan Tobacco International benefited ITC and VST Industries Ltd.

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

  • In India, cigarettes was dominated by three players in 2011. ITC was the undisputed leader with retail volume share of 78%, followed by Godfrey Phillips with 12% volume share and VST Industries with 8%. These three players contributed 98% share of total volume sales in India in 2011.

NEW PRODUCT DEVELOPMENTS

  • Summary 20 Cigarettes - New Product Launches

DISTRIBUTION

PROSPECTS

  • Mid tar and low tar cigarettes will become popular over the forecast period where they will outpace the growth of high tar as witnessed in 2011. The major shift of Indian smokers towards king size cigarettes will drive volume sales of mid tar and low tar cigarettes during the forecast period. Furthermore, the growth in these segments will be due to increasing numbers of working women in India who are attracted towards Western culture and indulging in smoking. Higher stress levels amongst employees in IT and other multinational companies will also drive growth in the female smokers’ base during the forecast period.

SECTOR BACKGROUND

Cigarettes: price bands

  • Summary 21 Cigarette Price Band Definitions

Cigarettes: menthol/standard

Cigarettes: filtered/unfiltered

Cigarettes: carbon/non-carbon filter

Cigarettes: filter length

Cigarettes: regular vs slims vs superslims

Cigarettes: pack size

Cigarettes: pack type

CATEGORY DATA

  • Table 19 Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: Volume 2006-2011
  • Table 20 Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: Value 2006-2011
  • Table 21 Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: % Volume Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 22 Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: % Value Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 23 Sales of Cigarettes by Price Band: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 24 Sales of Cigarettes by Standard/Menthol: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 25 Sales of Cigarettes by Tobacco Type: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 26 Sales of Cigarettes by Filter Vs Non-filter: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 27 Sales of Filter Cigarettes by Carbon Vs Non-carbon: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 28 Sales of Cigarettes by Length: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 29 Sales of Cigarettes by Regular/Slim/Superslim: % Volume Breakdown 2007-2011
  • Table 30 Sales of Cigarettes by Pack Size: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 31 Sales of Cigarettes by Pack Type: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 32 Cigarettes Company Shares 2007-2011
  • Table 33 Cigarettes Brand Shares 2008-2011
  • Table 34 Sales of Cigarettes by Distribution Format: % Analysis 2006-2011
  • Table 35 Cigarettes: Production, Imports and Exports: Total Volume 2006-2011
  • Table 36 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: Volume 2011-2016
  • Table 37 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: Value 2011-2016
  • Table 38 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: % Volume Growth 2011-2016
  • Table 39 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: % Value Growth 2011-2016
  • Table 40 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Price Band: % Volume Breakdown 2011-2016
  • Table 41 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Standard/Menthol: % Volume Breakdown 2011-2016
  • Table 42 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tobacco Type: % Volume Breakdown 2011-2016
  • Table 43 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Filter Vs Non-filter: % Volume Breakdown 2011-2016
  • Table 44 Forecast Sales of Filter Cigarettes by Carbon Vs Non-carbon: % Volume Breakdown 2011-2016
  • Table 45 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Length: % Volume Breakdown 2011-2016
  • Table 46 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Regular/Slim/Superslim: % Volume Breakdown 2011-2016
  • Table 47 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Pack Size: % Volume Breakdown 2011-2016
  • Table 48 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Pack Type: % Volume Breakdown 2011-2016

Cigars in India - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • In India, up until 1990, cigars stood in a nascent stage restricted to usage among the upper class and upper middle class. Once India opened for globalisation, many Indians visited foreign nations and came to understand the cigar culture and the benefits of cigars over cigarettes. The trend for smoking cigars has become very popular since the year 2000. Hollywood films also raise awareness of cigars and cigarillos in India.

HAND-MADE VERSUS MACHINE MANUFACTURED SPLITS

  • Table 49 Sales of Cigars by Handmade vs Machine-made: % Volume Breakdown 2007-2011

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

  • The leading player of cigars in 2011 was Godfrey Phillips India Ltd with 52.5% volume share, as it remains the exclusive importer of Cuban Cigars in India. Furthermore, Godfrey Phillips India Ltd remained as the leading player of cigarillos as its brand Phillies led overall cigar volume sales in 2011 by30%. ITC which started its cigar division in 2010, slowly gained momentum to hold 0.8% share of total cigar volume sales in 2011.

NEW PRODUCT DEVELOPMENTS

DISTRIBUTION

PROSPECTS

  • Cigars are set to increase in volume terms by a CAGR of 8% over the forecast period. The increase in awareness and further drives towards greater distribution will boost cigar sales during the forecast period. In the first two to three years of the forecast period, dominant cigar distributors (Chemon Group’s and Godfrey Phillips India Ltd) will expand cigar specialist retail outlets in cosmopolitan cities to improve long-term awareness and brand loyalty.

CATEGORY DATA

  • Table 50 Sales of Cigars by Category: Volume 2006-2011
  • Table 51 Sales of Cigars by Category: Value 2006-2011
  • Table 52 Sales of Cigars by Category: % Volume Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 53 Sales of Cigars by Category: % Value Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 54 Sales of Cigars by Handmade vs Machine-manufactured: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 55 Sales of Cigars by Handmade vs Machine-manufactured: % Value Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 56 Company Shares of Cigars Excluding Cigarillos 2007-2011
  • Table 57 Brand Shares of Cigars Excluding Cigarillos 2008-2011
  • Table 58 Sales of Cigars by Distribution Format: % Analysis 2006-2011
  • Table 59 Forecast Sales of Cigars by Category: Volume 2011-2016
  • Table 60 Forecast Sales of Cigars by Category: Value 2011-2016
  • Table 61 Forecast Sales of Cigars by Category: % Volume Growth 2011-2016
  • Table 62 Forecast Sales of Cigars by Category: % Value Growth 2011-2016

Smokeless Tobacco in India - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • Chewing tobacco is the oldest and most widely available form of tobacco commonly consumed in India. Its cheap price, making it affordable to most social groups, means that it continues to be firmly entrenched in India’s culture. Chewing tobacco consumers normally rub the product until it becomes hot before chewing it, after which they discard the remains. Gutka is the most common chewing tobacco in India and normally has a flavour added to it.
  • Summary 22 Value Sales and Brands

DISTRIBUTION

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

  • The main players in smokeless tobacco are Dhariwal Industries with its RMD Gutkha brand, holding retail volume share of 14% in 2011, followed by Dharampal Satyapal Ltd with brands Tulsi and Baba, with volume share of 8%. Other significant players are Som Sugandh Industries, Kothari Products Ltd and Shree Meenakshi Food Products Pvt Ltd.

NEW PRODUCT DEVELOPMENTS

PROSPECTS

  • India’s smokeless tobacco volume sales are predicted to increase by a 1% CAGR during the forecast period. Slightly stagnated volume sales will be primarily attributed to shift of upper middle class households to cigar and cigarette substitutes on long-term basis. However, the growth rates are expected to be sustained mainly due to fears of slowdown and cutbacks on spending on cigarettes following increases in taxes and a decrease in disposable income.

CATEGORY DATA

  • Table 63 Sales of Smokeless Tobacco by Category: Volume 2006-2011
  • Table 64 Sales of Smokeless Tobacco by Category: Value 2006-2011
  • Table 65 Sales of Smokeless Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 66 Sales of Smokeless Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 67 Company Shares of Smokeless Tobacco 2007-2011
  • Table 68 Brand Shares of Smokeless Tobacco 2008-2011
  • Table 69 Sales of Smokless Tobacco by Distribution Format: % Analysis 2006-2011
  • Table 70 Forecast Sales of Smokeless Tobacco by Category: Volume 2011-2016
  • Table 71 Forecast Sales of Smokeless Tobacco by Category: Value 2011-2016
  • Table 72 Forecast Sales of Smokeless Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2011-2016
  • Table 73 Forecast Sales of Smokeless Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2011-2016

Smoking Tobacco in India - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • Smoking tobacco has been used since ancient times in hookah or sheesha in India. The practice of smoking hookah, which is smoked using a single or multi-stemmed water pipe (also known as a hookah), has been part of Indian culture for centuries. The tobacco which is smoked through such a device is usually known as hookah tobacco or gudaku. Another type of smoking tobacco, sheesha, is made from fresh, dark tobacco leaves, fruit pulp, honey or molasses and glycerine and is smoked via a device which is also known as a sheesha. The device is similar to a hookah. RYO smoking tobacco is also common, as Indians often use tendu leaves to roll their smokes, which are normally used to produce beedis. However, the majority of smoking tobacco available in India remains unpackaged and/or unbranded.

The Role and Effect of Cannabis/Marijuana

DISTRIBUTION

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

  • The Soex India Pvt Ltd’s brand ‘Afzal’ remained the leading brand of smoking tobacco in the form of hookah molasses in India in 2011. The company enjoys a significant presence, not only in retail, but also in hookah bars, a growing channel within the foodservice industry.

NEW PRODUCT DEVELOPMENTS

PROSPECTS

  • Beedis as a mass market product would continue to grow and there is no significant potential threat to the beedi industry in India, except for a possibility of tax increases and/or any other kind of legislation which may bring beedis under its purview.

Segmentation

Segmentation

This market research report includes the following:

  • Tobacco
    • Cigarettes
      • High Tar Cigarettes
      • Mid Tar Cigarettes
      • Low Tar Cigarettes
      • Ultra Low Tar Cigarettes
    • Cigars
      • Cigars Excluding Cigarillos
        • Large Cigars
        • Standard Cigars
        • Small Cigars
      • Cigarillos
    • Smoking Tobacco
      • RYO Tobacco
      • Pipe Tobacco
    • Smokeless Tobacco
      • Chewing Tobacco
        • Asian-Style Chewing Tobacco
        • US-Style Chewing Tobacco
        • Other Chewing Tobacco
      • Snuff
        • Moist Snuff
          • US-Style Moist Snuff ('Dip')
            • Loose US-Style Moist Snuff
            • Portion US-Style Moist Snuff
          • Swedish-Style Snus
            • Loose Swedish-Style Snus
            • Portion Swedish-Style Snus
          • Asian Style Creamy Snuff
        • Dry Snuff
        • Hard Snuff
    • Cigarettes Including RYO Stick Equivalent
      • High Tar Cigarettes
      • Mid Tar Cigarettes
      • Low Tar Cigarettes
      • Ultra Low Tar Cigarettes
      • RYO Cigarettes

Statistics Included

Statistics Included

For each category and subcategory you will receive the following data in Excel format:

From Passport

  • Market sizes
  • Company shares
  • Brand shares
  • Distribution
  • Analysis by type
  • Cigarettes by blend
  • Cigarettes by carbon filter/non-carbon filter
  • Cigarettes by filtered/unfiltered
  • Cigarettes by length
  • Cigarettes by pack size
  • Cigarettes by pack type
  • Cigarettes by price band
  • Cigarettes by regular/slim/superslim
  • Cigarettes by standard/menthol
  • Illicit trade penetration
  • Pricing
  • Products by ingredient
  • Products by ingredient
  • Smoking population - number of adult smokers
  • Smoking prevalence - % of adult population
  • Taxation
  • Trade statistics - volume

Market size details:

  • Retail volume
  • Retail volume % growth
  • Retail volume per capita
  • Retail value retail selling price % growth
  • Retail value retail selling price local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Retail value retail selling price per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Illicit trade volume
  • Illicit trade volume % growth
  • Illicit trade volume per capita
  • Retail volume (sticks)
  • Retail volume (sticks) % growth
  • Retail volume (sticks) per capita
  • Retail plus illicit trade
  • Retail plus illicit trade % growth
  • Retail plus illicit trade per capita

Methodology

Methodology

Global insight and local knowledge

With 40 years’ experience of developed and emerging markets, Euromonitor International’s research method is built on a unique combination of specialist industry knowledge and in-country research expertise.

This approach is what enables us to achieve our goal of building a market consensus view of size, shape and trends across the full distribution universe of each category. We factor in whichever channels are relevant, from large-scale grocery to direct sellers, from discount stores to local mom-and-pop outlets.

Industry specialists

Each industry we cover is managed by an Industry Manager and team of Industry Analysts who research and report on their specialist categories all year round.

Our collaborative approach to research means that these industry teams are in constant dialogue with industry players and opinion formers. The planning of our research programmes reflects latest market trends and industry events. In completing each update project, this provides invaluable input to the testing, review and finalisation of our data.

The specialist in-house teams bring together findings from all stages of the annual research process. They work closely with in-country analysts, assess and challenge data and exercise final editorial control over the publication of new data and analysis.

Country and regional analysts

Our in-country analyst network is managed by country and regional analysts in our offices around the world. Working closely with each in-country team, the regional research management team ensures that all country researchers are well schooled in best practices, from the information collected in store checks, to the dialogue we build in trade surveys. Our country analysts ensure that national reports explain the data trends and provide clear insights into the local market’s dynamics.

In-country research network

To deliver fresh insights every year in countries all around the world, we believe the strongest approach is to use analysts on the ground. They bring fluency in local language, physical proximity to the best sources, an ability to engage directly with local industry contacts, and an awareness of how the products and services we study are advertised, sold and consumed. These are essential parts of our ability to report incisively on these markets.

Research Methodology

Our research methods

Each Euromonitor International industry report is based on a core set of research techniques:

Desk research

With industry events, corporate activity, trends and new product introductions tracked year round by our industry team, desk research provides a starting point for the in-country research programme. Our in-country researchers will access the following sources:

  • National statistics offices governmental and official sources
  • National and international trade press
  • National and international trade associations
  • Industry study groups and other semi-official sources
  • Company financials and annual reports
  • Broker reports
  • Online databases
  • The financial, business and mainstream press

Accessing sources is only the first step. The ability to interpret and reconcile often conflicting information across multiple sources is a key aspect of the added value we provide.

Store checks

Store checks are an integral part of our methods for product industries. Carried out on the ground across a relevant mix of channels, the information gained provides first-hand insights into the products we are researching, specifically:

  • Place: We track products in all relevant channels, selective and mass, store and non-store
  • Product: What are innovations in products, pack sizes and formats?
  • Price: What are brand price variations across channels, how do private label’s prices compare to those of branded goods?
  • Promotion: What are marketing and merchandising trends, offers, discounts and tie-ins?

Findings are cross-referenced with brand share data analysis. The results, combined with the findings of desk research, provide a strong basis for identifying key areas of questioning to take forward into our trade survey.

Trade survey

Interaction with global players at corporate HQ and regional levels is complemented by unique local data and insights from our in-country trade surveys around the world. Through the high profile of the Euromonitor International brand, we are able to talk directly to a wide range of sources and therefore inform our analysis with the knowledge and opinions of the leading operators in the market.

Trade surveys allow us to:

  • Fill gaps in available published data per company
  • Generate a consensus view of the size, structure and strategic direction of the category
  • Access year-in-progress data where published sources are out of date
  • Evaluate the experts’ views on current trends and market developments

In building our composite industry view, we engage with a variety of personnel in key players at all points of the supply chain: materials suppliers, manufacturers, distributors, retailers and service operators. We also interview desk research sources: industry associations; study groups; and third party observers from the trade and financial press.

Our objective is to engage in conversation with trade sources in which we exchange ideas and views on the industry, sharing our work-in-progress findings on supply/demand dynamics and potential. This dialogue enhances both parties’ understanding of the local market. The scope and reach of our trade survey also serves to eliminate bias (intentional and unintentional) from any single source.

Company analysis

At a global level, our company research combines our mix of industry interaction and use of secondary sources such as annual accounts, broker reports, financial press and databases. From a data perspective, the aim is to build “top-down” estimates of major players’ total global and regional sales.

At a country level, in line with local reporting requirements, we access annual accounts, national-specific company databases and local company websites. These are all invaluable sources as we build a view of each domestic player’s size and position within very specific categories of the industry.

Forecasts

Data projections and future performance analysis are key elements of Euromonitor International’s market intelligence. Working with historic trends of 15 years or more, a key aspect of our trade survey is to engage industry insider views of the next five years. Will volumes maintain their historic trend? Will price increases or falls of recent years continue, accelerate or slow down? Will increasing demand for one product cannibalise sales of another?

Forecasts represent many of the essential conclusions we have reached about the current state of the market, how it works and how it behaves under different macro and micro conditions. Our written analysis will state the assumptions and the trade opinion behind whether our predictions are optimistic or pessimistic, so that clients can use our statistical forecasts with confidence.

Data validation

All data is subjected to an exhaustive review process, at country, regional and global levels.

The interpretation and review of sources and data inputs forms a central part of the collaboration between industry teams and country researchers. Numbers are delivered to regional and global offices with an audit trail of sources and calculations to allow for a thorough evaluation of data sense and integrity.

Upon completion of the country review phase, data is then reviewed on a comparative basis at regional and then at a global level. Comparative checks are carried out on per capita consumption and spending levels, growth rates, patterns of category and subcategory breakdowns and distribution of sales by channel. Top-down estimates are reviewed against bottom-up regional and global market and company sales totals.

Where marked differences are seen between proximate country markets or ones at similar developmental levels, supplementary research is conducted in the relevant countries to confirm and/or amend those findings. This process ensures international comparability across the database, that consistent category and subcategory definitions have been used and that all data has been correctly tested. We make sure that possible discrepancies between different published sources have been reconciled and that our interpretation of opinion and expectation from each country’s trade sources has been applied to form a coherent international pattern.

Market analysis

Another integral part of all our research programmes is that all Euromonitor International data is accompanied by clear written analysis. From a research perspective, this explains and substantiates data findings. From a client perspective, this offers unique insights into local consumption trends, routes to market, brand preferences, channel dynamics and future trends.

Our country level analysis also provides invaluable input into the ability of our central industry specialist teams to marry local insights with strategic conclusions on the direction of the market regionally and globally.

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