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Country Report

Tobacco in Iran

Jul 2011

Price: $1,900

About this Report

About this Report

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Overview

Discover the latest market trends and uncover sources of future market growth for the Tobacco industry in Iran with research from Euromonitor's team of in-country analysts.

Find hidden opportunities in the most current research data available, understand competitive threats with our detailed market analysis, and plan your corporate strategy with our expert qualitative analysis and growth projections.

If you're in the Tobacco industry in Iran, our research will save you time and money while empowering you to make informed, profitable decisions.

When you purchase this report, you also get the data and the content from these category reports in Iran for free:

The Tobacco in Iran market research report includes:

  • Analysis of key supply-side and demand trends
  • Detailed segmentation of international and local products
  • Historic volumes and values, company and brand market shares
  • Five year forecasts of market trends and market growth
  • Production, imports by origin, exports by destination
  • Robust and transparent market research methodology, conducted in-country

Our market research reports answer questions such as:

  • What is the market size of Tobacco in Iran?
  • What are the major brands in Iran?
  • Which sector of the tobacco products market is the largest by value sales in Iran?
  • Which sector of the tobacco products market has been growing the fastest, by volume and value, in Iran?
  • Which sector is the most heavily taxed in Iran?
  • Which companies dominate in the total tobacco market in Iran in terms of market share?
  • What is the distribution channel split for the tobacco products market in Iran?

Why buy this report?

  • Gain competitive intelligence about market leaders
  • Track key industry trends, opportunities and threats
  • Inform your marketing, brand, strategy and market development, sales and supply functions

This industry report originates from Passport, our Tobacco market research database.

Sample Analysis

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Sudden rise of illicit trade in cigarettes leads to a significant decline in retail volume

Illicit trade continued to rise significantly in 2010, thus hampering the growth of retail volume sales. The introduction of new graphic health warnings in 2009, which were not well received by consumers, encouraged them to look for products without these warnings (illicit trade) and benefited smugglers to a large extent. In addition, porous borders with neighbouring countries without a strong central power, like Iraq, made it very hard for the Iranian authorities to control illicit products. Finally, the huge number of outlets, especially independent small grocers, made it virtually impossible to control smuggled products.

Taxes on cigarettes almost double

At the beginning of 2010, the Iranian parliament approved a law in the annual budget which enforced tobacco suppliers to pay higher taxes to the government. Domestic brands saw a tax increase from around 10% to 20%, while multinational brands had to pay on average 40% instead of the previous 20%. As a result, a significant rise in unit price was inevitable from most manufacturers, which also played a key role in the success of illicit trade in Iran during 2010.

In spite of a monopoly in cigarettes multinational suppliers play a more important role

Iranian Tobacco Co leads the tobacco industry in Iran and controls all tobacco-related activities, but global players hold a significant share. British American Tobacco and Japan Tobacco are the leading global players in Iran, commanding a combined volume share in cigarettes of around 35%. Thanks to agreements between Iranian Tobacco Co and these global manufacturers, the latter have a better chance of growing their business in Iran as importation procedures have been eased. They are also using Iranian Tobacco Co for the domestic production of their own products.

Demographic changes and smoking prevalence

Smoking prevalence has increased continuously in recent years, mainly as a result of increasing demand from younger Iranians for tobacco products, especially cigarettes and traditional water pipes. A sudden increase in the number of female smokers was also a trend over the review period. Many young Iranian women now consider smoking as a trendy way to relax. The Iranian authorities have announced that tobacco consumption patterns have changed, with a shift towards younger people, a consequence of limited awareness about the harmful effects of these products as well as the wider availability of multinational cigarette brands.

Future outlook for cigarettes largely dependent on the performance of illicit trade

Cigarette retail sales are not expected to experience positive growth over the forecast period unless the authorities can control illicit trade. If the Iranian government can control its borders and support the retail environment with sufficient official imports then retail volumes could grow. In addition, the authorities will also need to improve awareness surrounding counterfeit products, which could pose a serious health risk. Legislation will play a key role in this campaign. Iranian consumers have proved to be very sensitive to issues like graphic health warnings.

Table of Contents

Table of Contents

Tobacco in Iran - Industry Overview

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Sudden rise of illicit trade in cigarettes leads to a significant decline in retail volume

Taxes on cigarettes almost double

In spite of a monopoly in cigarettes multinational suppliers play a more important role

Demographic changes and smoking prevalence

Future outlook for cigarettes largely dependent on the performance of illicit trade

OPERATING ENVIRONMENT

Legislative overview/ FCTC ratification

  • Summary 1 Legislation Summary at a Glance

Country-specific legislation:

Smoking Prevalence

  • Table 1 Smoking Prevalence in Adult Population 2005-2010
  • Table 2 Number of Smokers by Gender 2005-2010

Tar levels

Health warnings

Advertising & Sponsorship

Smoking in public places

Low Ignition Propensity (LIP) regulation

Litigation

Death by Cause

  • Table 3 Death by Cause 2005-2010

TAXATION AND PRICING

Duty paid packet marks

Taxation rates

  • Table 4 Taxation and Duty Levies 2005-2010

Average cigarette pack price breakdown

PRODUCTION/IMPORTS/EXPORTS

  • Table 6 Production/Imports/Exports 2005-2010

Illicit trade in cigarettes

MARKET INDICATORS

  • Table 7 Illicit Trade Estimate of Cigarettes by Volume 2005-2010

MARKET DATA

  • Table 8 Sales of Tobacco by Category: Volume 2005-2010
  • Table 9 Sales of Tobacco by Category: Value 2005-2010
  • Table 10 Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 11 Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 12 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: Volume 2010-2015
  • Table 13 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: Value 2010-2015
  • Table 14 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2010-2015
  • Table 15 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2010-2015

DEFINITIONS

  • Summary 2 Research Sources

Tobacco in Iran - Company Profiles

Iranian Tobacco Co in Tobacco (Iran)

STRATEGIC DIRECTION

KEY FACTS

COMPANY BACKGROUND

PRODUCTION

COMPETITIVE POSITIONING

  • Summary 4 Iranian Tobacco Co: Competitive Position 2010

Middle East Tobacco Co in Tobacco (Iran)

STRATEGIC DIRECTION

KEY FACTS

COMPANY BACKGROUND

PRODUCTION

COMPETITIVE POSITIONING

  • Summary 6 Middle East Tobacco Co: Competitive Position 2010

Cigarettes in Iran - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • The Iranian cigarette industry was dominated by illicit trade in 2010. A sudden rise in tax on both domestic and imported products played a key role in the popularity of illicit products. Average tax on domestic cigarettes increased from almost 10% to 20% and for imported brands from almost 20% to 40%. This sudden increase, which was approved by the Iranian parliament, was a consequence of the efforts from the Ministry of Health and Hygiene to limit consumption. On the other hand, consumers’ negative response to graphic warnings boosted demand for illicit products. Many consumers believed that cigarettes without these unpleasant warnings (illicit trade) were of better quality and thus switched to buying these products.

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

  • Iranian Tobacco Co has monopolised the tobacco industry in Iran since 1928 and all commercial activities undertaken in tobacco in Iran fall under its strict control. After the Islamic revolution in 1979 the importation of any kind of tobacco product became illegal, thus making Iran a lucrative market for smugglers. In 2002, Iranian Tobacco Co opened up the tobacco industry and several key multinational tobacco suppliers, including British American Tobacco, Japan Tobacco Inc and KT&G Corp, started legal importation and joint venture production in Iran. This monopoly of the tobacco industry is not expected to change in the near future.

NEW PRODUCT DEVELOPMENTS

  • Summary 7 Cigarettes - New Product Launches

DISTRIBUTION

PROSPECTS

  • Illicit trade is expected to remain the key issue for the Iranian cigarette industry over the forecast period. With tighter regulations for importers and domestic producers, along with higher taxes, smuggling cigarettes into Iran will remain a profitable business. However, the Iranian government will make a concerted effort to manage this huge volume with more effective border controls and tighter supervision of the retail environment. Overall, due to the country’s long and porous borders and the high number of outlets, these efforts will not be enough to control the volume of illicit trade. In addition, key multinationals such as Philip Morris International which are not yet permitted a presence in Iran will continue to support the clandestine importation of their own products in a bid to try and force the Iranian government to issue them with permits to trade in Iran.

CATEGORY BACKGROUND

Cigarettes: Price Bands

  • Summary 8 Cigarette Price Band Definitions

Cigarettes: Menthol/standard

Cigarettes: Filter/non-filter

Cigarettes: Carbon/standard filter

Cigarettes: Filter length

Cigarettes: Slims/superslims vs regular

Cigarettes: Pack size

Cigarettes: Pack type

CATEGORY DATA

  • Table 16 Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: Volume 2005-2010
  • Table 17 Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: Value 2005-2010
  • Table 18 Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: % Volume Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 19 Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: % Value Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 20 Sales of Cigarettes by Price Band: % Volume Breakdown 2005-2010
  • Table 21 Sales of Cigarettes by Standard/Menthol: % Volume Breakdown 2005-2010
  • Table 22 Sales of Cigarettes by Tobacco Type: % Volume Breakdown 2005-2010
  • Table 23 Sales of Cigarettes by Filter Vs Non-filter: % Volume Breakdown 2005-2010
  • Table 24 Sales of Filter Cigarettes by Carbon Vs Non-carbon: % Volume Breakdown 2005-2010
  • Table 25 Sales of Cigarettes by Length: % Volume Breakdown 2005-2010
  • Table 26 Sales of Cigarettes by Regular/Slim: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2010
  • Table 27 Sales of Cigarettes by Pack Size: % Volume Breakdown 2005-2010
  • Table 28 Sales of Cigarettes by Pack Type: % Volume Breakdown 2005-2010
  • Table 29 Cigarettes Company Shares 2006-2010
  • Table 30 Cigarettes Brand Shares 2007-2010
  • Table 31 Sales of Cigarettes by Distribution Format: % Analysis 2005-2010
  • Table 32 Cigarettes: Production, Imports and Exports: Total Volume 2005-2010
  • Table 33 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: Volume 2010-2015
  • Table 34 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: Value 2010-2015
  • Table 35 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: % Volume Growth 2010-2015
  • Table 36 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: % Value Growth 2010-2015
  • Table 37 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Price Band: % Volume Breakdown 2010-2015
  • Table 38 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Standard/Menthol: % Volume Breakdown 2010-2015
  • Table 39 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tobacco Type: % Volume Breakdown 2010-2015
  • Table 40 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Filter Vs Non-filter: % Volume Breakdown 2010-2015
  • Table 41 Forecast Sales of Filter Cigarettes by Carbon Vs Non-carbon: % Volume Breakdown 2010-2015
  • Table 42 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Length: % Volume Breakdown 2010-2015
  • Table 43 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Regular/Slim: % Volume Breakdown 2010-2015
  • Table 44 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Pack Size: % Volume Breakdown 2010-2015
  • Table 45 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Pack Type: % Volume Breakdown 2010-2015

Cigars in Iran - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • Sales of cigars remained low in 2010 as Iranian consumers are not used to smoking them on a daily basis. Availability also remained very weak and cigars could be found only in a few tobacco specialists and newsagent-tobacconists/kiosks in very small volumes. Cigars are mostly sold in single unit packaging, although some tobacco specialists do sell cigars in multipacks. Avid cigar smokers order their brands from tobacco specialists as this type of tobacco product is not very common in Iran and not all brands are available everywhere.

HANDMADE VERSUS MACHINE-MANUFACTURED SPLITS

  • Table 46 Sales of Cigars by Handmade vs Machine-manufactured 2006-2010

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

  • Cigars remained a very small and fragmented category in Iran in 2010. Altadis SA remained the key player with a 21% volume share, followed by Scandinavian Tobacco Group A/S and Swisher International Group Inc with shares of 10% and 8%, respectively. In this highly fragmented category, others accounted for around a 58% share of volume sales. In cigarillos, Captain Black from BAT Pars is imported into Iran, but the brand is not widely available.

NEW PRODUCT DEVELOPMENTS

DISTRIBUTION

PROSPECTS

  • As there is no cigar smoking culture in Iran, the category is unlikely to see any major changes. Demand for cigars and cigarillos is not expected to rise significantly over the forecast period as the unit price of a cigar is very high for the majority of Iranians. Altadis is likely to remain the key player and Captain Black is expected to continue to be the leading brand in cigarillos.

CATEGORY DATA

  • Table 47 Sales of Cigars by Category: Volume 2005-2010
  • Table 48 Sales of Cigars by Category: Value 2005-2010
  • Table 49 Sales of Cigars by Category: % Volume Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 50 Sales of Cigars by Category: % Value Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 51 Sales of Cigars by Handmade vs Machine Manufactured: % Volume Breakdown 2005-2010
  • Table 52 Company Shares of Cigars Excluding Cigarillos 2006-2010
  • Table 53 Brand Shares of Cigars Excluding Cigarillos 2007-2010
  • Table 54 Sales of Cigars by Distribution Format: % Analysis 2005-2010
  • Table 55 Forecast Sales of Cigars by Category: Volume 2010-2015
  • Table 56 Forecast Sales of Cigars by Category: Value 2010-2015
  • Table 57 Forecast Sales of Cigars by Category: % Volume Growth 2010-2015
  • Table 58 Forecast Sales of Cigars by Category: % Value Growth 2010-2015

Smokeless Tobacco in Iran - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • There is very little awareness of the existence of smokeless tobacco among Iranian consumers. No smokeless tobacco products were available in Iran in 2010.

PROSPECTS

  • Smokeless tobacco has little potential for development over the forecast period. A few brands may be launched in Iran over the medium term, but it is highly unlikely that this category will take off due to a lack of consumer awareness and an absence of the need for smokeless tobacco products in general.

Smoking Tobacco in Iran - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • Iranian water pipes (ghalioun) are traditionally popular in the country, dating back to Safavi and Ghajar times. Initially, plain tobacco leaves were used. Traditionally, people soaked the leaves and prepared them for smoking. Ghalioun tobacco was a very important product during the 19th century and was even used as a way to protest against the Shah, known as the “Tobacco Protest”. This protest was a Shi'a cleric-led revolt in Iran against an 1890 tobacco concession granted by the Shah to the Western imperial power of Great Britain. The protest climaxed in a widely-obeyed December 1891 fatwa against tobacco use supposedly issued by Grand Ayatollah Mirza Hassan Shirazi. The boycott was one of the first times the Iranian religious elite succeeded in forcing the government to retreat from a policy, and was seen as a demonstration that "the Shia ulama were Iran's first line of defence" against colonialism.

The Role and Effect of Cannabis/Marijuana

DISTRIBUTION

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

  • Iranian Tobacco Co remained the leading supplier of pipe tobacco (mainly for water pipe) in 2010 with an 18% share of volume sales. The company benefits from a long history of tobacco production and has a very strong distribution network, even in remote rural areas. Its key brands, including Alshams, Bahman and Caspian, proved to be very successful over the review period. However, with the emergence of flavoured tobacco and strong demand for this type, some manufacturers in the Persian Gulf region, including Middle East Tobacco Co and AFCO, have initiated activities in Iran and could rapidly gain volume share over the forecast period.

NEW PRODUCT DEVELOPMENTS

PROSPECTS

  • In spite of a concerted effort from the Ministry of Health and Medical Education to limit and ban water pipes in Iran, growth in sales of smoking tobacco is expected over the forecast period. A 7% volume CAGR is predicted for the category over 2010-2015, which will be higher than the 4% CAGR of the review period. Many youngsters will look at smoking ghalioun as a hobby, particularly at parties, and this increasing demand will drive sales.

CATEGORY DATA

  • Table 59 Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: Volume 2005-2010
  • Table 60 Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: Value 2005-2010
  • Table 61 Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 62 Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 63 Company Shares of Pipe Tobacco 2006-2010
  • Table 64 Brand Shares of Pipe Tobacco 2007-2010
  • Table 65 Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Distribution Format: % Analysis 2005-2010
  • Table 66 Forecast Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: Volume 2010-2015
  • Table 67 Forecast Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: Value 2010-2015
  • Table 68 Forecast Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2010-2015
  • Table 69 Forecast Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2010-2015

Segmentation

Segmentation

This market research report includes the following:

  • Tobacco
    • Cigarettes
      • High Tar Cigarettes
      • Mid Tar Cigarettes
      • Low Tar Cigarettes
      • Ultra Low Tar Cigarettes
    • Cigars
      • Cigars Excluding Cigarillos
        • Large Cigars
        • Standard Cigars
        • Small Cigars
      • Cigarillos
    • Smoking Tobacco
      • RYO Tobacco
      • Pipe Tobacco
    • Smokeless Tobacco
      • Chewing Tobacco
        • Asian-Style Chewing Tobacco
        • US-Style Chewing Tobacco
        • Other Chewing Tobacco
      • Snuff
        • Moist Snuff
          • US-Style Moist Snuff ('Dip')
            • Loose US-Style Moist Snuff
            • Portion US-Style Moist Snuff
          • Swedish-Style Snus
            • Loose Swedish-Style Snus
            • Portion Swedish-Style Snus
          • Asian Style Creamy Snuff
        • Dry Snuff
        • Hard Snuff
    • Cigarettes Including RYO Stick Equivalent
      • High Tar Cigarettes
      • Mid Tar Cigarettes
      • Low Tar Cigarettes
      • Ultra Low Tar Cigarettes
      • RYO Cigarettes

Statistics Included

Statistics Included

For each category and subcategory you will receive the following data in Excel format:

From Passport

  • Market sizes
  • Company shares
  • Brand shares
  • Distribution
  • Analysis by type
  • Cigarettes by blend
  • Cigarettes by carbon filter/non-carbon filter
  • Cigarettes by filtered/unfiltered
  • Cigarettes by length
  • Cigarettes by pack size
  • Cigarettes by pack type
  • Cigarettes by price band
  • Cigarettes by regular/slim
  • Cigarettes by standard/menthol
  • Illicit trade penetration
  • Pricing
  • Products by ingredient
  • Products by ingredient
  • Smoking population - number of adult smokers
  • Smoking prevalence - % of adult population
  • Taxation
  • Trade statistics - volume

Market size details:

  • Retail volume
  • Retail volume % growth
  • Retail volume per capita
  • Retail value retail selling price % growth
  • Retail value retail selling price local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Retail value retail selling price per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Retail value retail selling price real (constant 2008) prices % growth
  • Retail value retail selling price real (constant 2008) prices local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Retail value retail selling price real (constant 2008) prices per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Illicit trade volume
  • Illicit trade volume % growth
  • Illicit trade volume per capita
  • Retail volume (sticks)
  • Retail volume (sticks) % growth
  • Retail volume (sticks) per capita
  • Retail value retail selling price nominal (current) prices % growth
  • Retail value retail selling price nominal (current) prices local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Retail value retail selling price nominal (current) prices per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Retail plus illicit trade
  • Retail plus illicit trade % growth
  • Retail plus illicit trade per capita

Methodology

Methodology

Global insight and local knowledge

With 40 years’ experience of developed and emerging markets, Euromonitor International’s research method is built on a unique combination of specialist industry knowledge and in-country research expertise.

This approach is what enables us to achieve our goal of building a market consensus view of size, shape and trends across the full distribution universe of each category. We factor in whichever channels are relevant, from large-scale grocery to direct sellers, from discount stores to local mom-and-pop outlets.

Industry specialists

Each industry we cover is managed by an Industry Manager and team of Industry Analysts who research and report on their specialist categories all year round.

Our collaborative approach to research means that these industry teams are in constant dialogue with industry players and opinion formers. The planning of our research programmes reflects latest market trends and industry events. In completing each update project, this provides invaluable input to the testing, review and finalisation of our data.

The specialist in-house teams bring together findings from all stages of the annual research process. They work closely with in-country analysts, assess and challenge data and exercise final editorial control over the publication of new data and analysis.

Country and regional analysts

Our in-country analyst network is managed by country and regional analysts in our offices around the world. Working closely with each in-country team, the regional research management team ensures that all country researchers are well schooled in best practices, from the information collected in store checks, to the dialogue we build in trade surveys. Our country analysts ensure that national reports explain the data trends and provide clear insights into the local market’s dynamics.

In-country research network

To deliver fresh insights every year in countries all around the world, we believe the strongest approach is to use analysts on the ground. They bring fluency in local language, physical proximity to the best sources, an ability to engage directly with local industry contacts, and an awareness of how the products and services we study are advertised, sold and consumed. These are essential parts of our ability to report incisively on these markets.

Research Methodology

Our research methods

Each Euromonitor International industry report is based on a core set of research techniques:

Desk research

With industry events, corporate activity, trends and new product introductions tracked year round by our industry team, desk research provides a starting point for the in-country research programme. Our in-country researchers will access the following sources:

  • National statistics offices governmental and official sources
  • National and international trade press
  • National and international trade associations
  • Industry study groups and other semi-official sources
  • Company financials and annual reports
  • Broker reports
  • Online databases
  • The financial, business and mainstream press

Accessing sources is only the first step. The ability to interpret and reconcile often conflicting information across multiple sources is a key aspect of the added value we provide.

Store checks

Store checks are an integral part of our methods for product industries. Carried out on the ground across a relevant mix of channels, the information gained provides first-hand insights into the products we are researching, specifically:

  • Place: We track products in all relevant channels, selective and mass, store and non-store
  • Product: What are innovations in products, pack sizes and formats?
  • Price: What are brand price variations across channels, how do private label’s prices compare to those of branded goods?
  • Promotion: What are marketing and merchandising trends, offers, discounts and tie-ins?

Findings are cross-referenced with brand share data analysis. The results, combined with the findings of desk research, provide a strong basis for identifying key areas of questioning to take forward into our trade survey.

Trade survey

Interaction with global players at corporate HQ and regional levels is complemented by unique local data and insights from our in-country trade surveys around the world. Through the high profile of the Euromonitor International brand, we are able to talk directly to a wide range of sources and therefore inform our analysis with the knowledge and opinions of the leading operators in the market.

Trade surveys allow us to:

  • Fill gaps in available published data per company
  • Generate a consensus view of the size, structure and strategic direction of the category
  • Access year-in-progress data where published sources are out of date
  • Evaluate the experts’ views on current trends and market developments

In building our composite industry view, we engage with a variety of personnel in key players at all points of the supply chain: materials suppliers, manufacturers, distributors, retailers and service operators. We also interview desk research sources: industry associations; study groups; and third party observers from the trade and financial press.

Our objective is to engage in conversation with trade sources in which we exchange ideas and views on the industry, sharing our work-in-progress findings on supply/demand dynamics and potential. This dialogue enhances both parties’ understanding of the local market. The scope and reach of our trade survey also serves to eliminate bias (intentional and unintentional) from any single source.

Company analysis

At a global level, our company research combines our mix of industry interaction and use of secondary sources such as annual accounts, broker reports, financial press and databases. From a data perspective, the aim is to build “top-down” estimates of major players’ total global and regional sales.

At a country level, in line with local reporting requirements, we access annual accounts, national-specific company databases and local company websites. These are all invaluable sources as we build a view of each domestic player’s size and position within very specific categories of the industry.

Forecasts

Data projections and future performance analysis are key elements of Euromonitor International’s market intelligence. Working with historic trends of 15 years or more, a key aspect of our trade survey is to engage industry insider views of the next five years. Will volumes maintain their historic trend? Will price increases or falls of recent years continue, accelerate or slow down? Will increasing demand for one product cannibalise sales of another?

Forecasts represent many of the essential conclusions we have reached about the current state of the market, how it works and how it behaves under different macro and micro conditions. Our written analysis will state the assumptions and the trade opinion behind whether our predictions are optimistic or pessimistic, so that clients can use our statistical forecasts with confidence.

Data validation

All data is subjected to an exhaustive review process, at country, regional and global levels.

The interpretation and review of sources and data inputs forms a central part of the collaboration between industry teams and country researchers. Numbers are delivered to regional and global offices with an audit trail of sources and calculations to allow for a thorough evaluation of data sense and integrity.

Upon completion of the country review phase, data is then reviewed on a comparative basis at regional and then at a global level. Comparative checks are carried out on per capita consumption and spending levels, growth rates, patterns of category and subcategory breakdowns and distribution of sales by channel. Top-down estimates are reviewed against bottom-up regional and global market and company sales totals.

Where marked differences are seen between proximate country markets or ones at similar developmental levels, supplementary research is conducted in the relevant countries to confirm and/or amend those findings. This process ensures international comparability across the database, that consistent category and subcategory definitions have been used and that all data has been correctly tested. We make sure that possible discrepancies between different published sources have been reconciled and that our interpretation of opinion and expectation from each country’s trade sources has been applied to form a coherent international pattern.

Market analysis

Another integral part of all our research programmes is that all Euromonitor International data is accompanied by clear written analysis. From a research perspective, this explains and substantiates data findings. From a client perspective, this offers unique insights into local consumption trends, routes to market, brand preferences, channel dynamics and future trends.

Our country level analysis also provides invaluable input into the ability of our central industry specialist teams to marry local insights with strategic conclusions on the direction of the market regionally and globally.

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