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Country Report

Tobacco in Ireland

Oct 2011

Price: US$1,900

About this Report

About this Report

Samples (FAQs about samples):

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Overview

Discover the latest market trends and uncover sources of future market growth for the Tobacco industry in Ireland with research from Euromonitor's team of in-country analysts.

Find hidden opportunities in the most current research data available, understand competitive threats with our detailed market analysis, and plan your corporate strategy with our expert qualitative analysis and growth projections.

If you're in the Tobacco industry in Ireland, our research will save you time and money while empowering you to make informed, profitable decisions.

When you purchase this report, you also get the data and the content from these category reports in Ireland for free:

The Tobacco in Ireland market research report includes:

  • Analysis of key supply-side and demand trends
  • Detailed segmentation of international and local products
  • Historic volumes and values, company and brand market shares
  • Five year forecasts of market trends and market growth
  • Production, imports by origin, exports by destination
  • Robust and transparent market research methodology, conducted in-country

Our market research reports answer questions such as:

  • What is the market size of Tobacco in Ireland?
  • What are the major brands in Ireland?
  • Which sector of the tobacco products market is the largest by value sales in Ireland?
  • Which sector of the tobacco products market has been growing the fastest, by volume and value, in Ireland?
  • Which sector is the most heavily taxed in Ireland?
  • Which companies dominate in the total tobacco market in Ireland in terms of market share?
  • What is the distribution channel split for the tobacco products market in Ireland?

Why buy this report?

  • Gain competitive intelligence about market leaders
  • Track key industry trends, opportunities and threats
  • Inform your marketing, brand, strategy and market development, sales and supply functions

This industry report originates from Passport, our Tobacco market research database.

Sample Analysis

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Economic recovery drags on

In the midst of a deep recession, tobacco proved no exception in demonstrating the impact of low levels of consumer confidence. Although consumer spending was suggested to have bottomed out in early 2010, the severity of the recession caused recovery to be slow and painful. Ireland saw the bottom falling out of its construction and property markets, alongside a faltering banking system requiring a state bailout, falling levels of foreign investment and rocketing unemployment. Although a recovery was widely accepted to be taking place over the course of 2010, November saw Ireland officially approaching the European Financial Stability Fund for a bail out, with the opinion also posed by experts that the effects of the recession would be permanent, having a marked impact on the standard of living in Ireland. Specific impacts on different categories varied according to a host of sub-trends, however, the general suppression in the market was quite clear.

Lure of the illicit in Ireland

The surge in illegally smuggled cigarettes coming into Ireland did not abate in 2010, with figures in 2009 suggesting that 27% of tobacco by volume consumed in Ireland evaded Irish excise taxes. As a consequence of this worrying trend, 2010 saw tougher fines being imposed in the form of the new Finance Bill. The Retailers Against Smuggling organisation and manufacturers broadly welcomed the bill, in light of escalating tax revenue losses and a record 100 million cigarettes being seized over 2010 with a street value of €42 million and worth €33 million in taxes. The battle clearly wages on, as many consumers continue to purchase these illicit products encouraged by their prevalence and low prices, which are increasingly attractive to struggling consumers in the face of the recession.

Competition remains stable

The established leaders remained at the helm of the market in 2010, with Gallaher (Dublin) Ltd taking top position, followed by John Player & Sons Ltd and P J Carroll & Co Plc. Between them, these players maintained a grip over the entire tobacco market. Gallaher maintains its position based on its strong positioning in the largest tobacco category, cigarettes. As smoking continues to fall in popularity, players have tended to focus on consolidating their existing products through re-launches and new designs rather than venturing into new product areas.

Difficult trading conditions hit retailers

In 2009 new legislation was introduced banning the display of tobacco products in Ireland, affecting shelf displays, point-of-sale advertising and all manner of promotional activity. This impacted particularly on smaller convenience stores, as they were forced to make significant changes to their traditional displays, although convenience stores remained the outlet of choice for many consumers seeking tobacco products given their convenience and widespread locations. These legislative changes controlling the display and access to tobacco products, were in some cases blamed for the surge in illicit tobacco trade, though this is disputed by various health organisations, and by others insisting that the high costs of tobacco products is in fact the likeliest source of motivation for consumers to consider contraband goods, particularly with the impact of the recession continuing in 2010.

Rolling into the future

The forecast period will continue to see tobacco sales struggling, given a combination of increasingly tough legislation conditioning the sale and promotion of tobacco products, governmental and other health campaigns highlighting the dangers of smoking, indoor smoking bans and the general declining popularity of tobacco products. Although the forecast period will see volume sales continuing to fall, tobacco sales are expected to nudge towards positive growth as unit prices continue to rise and a hardy consumer base remains. The forecast period will see some gravitation towards RYO tobacco given lower prices, at the expense of traditional cigarettes.

Table of Contents

Table of Contents

Tobacco in Ireland - Industry Overview

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Economic recovery drags on

Lure of the illicit in Ireland

Competition remains stable

Difficult trading conditions hit retailers

Rolling into the future

OPERATING ENVIRONMENT

Legislative overview/ FCTC ratification

  • Summary 1 Legislation Summary at a Glance

Country-specific legislation:

Minimum legal smoking age

Smoking Prevalence

  • Table 1 Smoking Prevalence in Adult Population 2005-2010
  • Table 2 Number of Smokers by Gender 2005-2010

Tar levels

Health warnings

Advertising and sponsorship

Point-of-sale display bans

Smoking in public places

Low Ignition Propensity (LIP) regulation

Electronic cigarettes

Litigation

Death by Cause

  • Table 3 Death by Cause 2005-2010

TAXATION AND PRICING

Duty paid packet marks

  • Table 4 Taxation and Duty Levies 2005-2010

Average cigarette pack price breakdown

  • Table 5 Average Cigarette Pack Price Breakdown: Brand Examples

PRODUCTION/IMPORTS/EXPORTS

  • Table 6 Production/Imports/Exports 2005-2010
  • Table 7 Trade Statistics – Tobacco Leaf 2006-2010

Illicit trade in cigarettes

MARKET INDICATORS

  • Table 8 Illicit Trade Estimate of Cigarettes by Volume 2005-2010

MARKET DATA

  • Table 9 Sales of Tobacco by Category: Volume 2005-2010
  • Table 10 Sales of Tobacco by Category: Value 2005-2010
  • Table 11 Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 12 Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 13 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: Volume 2010-2015
  • Table 14 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: Value 2010-2015
  • Table 15 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2010-2015
  • Table 16 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2010-2015

DEFINITIONS

  • Summary 2 Research Sources

Tobacco in Ireland - Company Profiles

Carroll & Co Plc, P J in Tobacco (Ireland)

STRATEGIC DIRECTION

KEY FACTS

COMPANY BACKGROUND

PRODUCTION

COMPETITIVE POSITIONING

  • Summary 4 PJ Carroll & Co Plc: Competitive Position 2010

Gallaher (Dublin) Ltd in Tobacco (Ireland)

STRATEGIC DIRECTION

KEY FACTS

COMPANY BACKGROUND

PRODUCTION

COMPETITIVE POSITIONING

  • Summary 6 Gallaher (Dublin) Ltd: Competitive Position 2010

Player & Sons, John in Tobacco (Ireland)

STRATEGIC DIRECTION

KEY FACTS

COMPANY BACKGROUND

PRODUCTION

COMPETITIVE POSITIONING

  • Summary 8 John Player & Sons: Competitive Position 2010

Cigarettes in Ireland - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • Volume sales of cigarettes declined across the board in 2010 for the fourth consecutive year, with shrinking by 12% in 2010. There is some indication that consumers are trading down and moving around between brands in a bid to find lower prices where possible. However, large drops in volume sales were reported across all categories and brands as consumers sought cheaper tobacco products elsewhere, cut down or indeed gave up on smoking, and increasingly, turned to the black market. Official statistics, however, indicate that only a moderate numbers of Irish smokers gave up the habit over the review period, when compared against steady adult population growth, suggesting that cigarette consumers are moving away from legitimate retail outlets towards purchasing illicit cigarettes on the black market.

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

  • The cigarettes category is highly consolidated in Ireland, dominated by three main players, Gallaher (Dublin) Ltd, John Player & Sons and P J Carroll & Co Plc. These three companies have maintained their positions as the key players throughout the review period and are expected to retain their dominant positions.

NEW PRODUCT DEVELOPMENTS

  • Summary 9 Cigarettes - New Product Launches

DISTRIBUTION

PROSPECTS

  • The forecast period will see a number of factors influencing the performance of cigarettes in Ireland. The dominant concerns will remain increasingly harsh anti-smoking legislation, which has so far banned smoking in increasing numbers of public indoor and indeed outdoor areas, prevented the display of tobacco products in stores and led to an almost total ban on advertising, restricted pricing and pack sizes, imposed the presence of two verbal warnings of particular sizes, forced minimum prices, hiked up excise taxes, all alongside significant governmental health campaigns warning against the dangers of smoking.

CATEGORYBACKGROUND

Cigarettes: Price bands

  • Summary 10 Cigarettes Price Band Definitions

Cigarettes: Menthol/standard

Cigarettes: Filter/non-filter

Cigarettes: Carbon/standard filter

Cigarettes: Filter length

Cigarettes: Slims/superslims vs regular

Cigarettes: Pack size

Cigarettes: Pack type

CATEGORY DATA

  • Table 17 Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: Volume 2005-2010
  • Table 18 Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: Value 2005-2010
  • Table 19 Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: % Volume Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 20 Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: % Value Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 21 Sales of Cigarettes by Price Band: % Volume Breakdown 2005-2010
  • Table 22 Sales of Cigarettes by Standard/Menthol: % Volume Breakdown 2005-2010
  • Table 23 Sales of Cigarettes by Tobacco Type: % Volume Breakdown 2005-2010
  • Table 24 Sales of Cigarettes by Filter Vs Non-filter: % Volume Breakdown 2005-2010
  • Table 25 Sales of Filter Cigarettes by Carbon Vs Non-carbon: % Volume Breakdown 2005-2010
  • Table 26 Sales of Cigarettes by Length: % Volume Breakdown 2005-2010
  • Table 27 Sales of Cigarettes by Regular/Slim: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2010
  • Table 28 Sales of Cigarettes by Pack Size: % Volume Breakdown 2005-2010
  • Table 29 Sales of Cigarettes by Pack Type: % Volume Breakdown 2005-2010
  • Table 30 Cigarettes Company Shares 2006-2010
  • Table 31 Cigarettes Brand Shares 2007-2010
  • Table 32 Sales of Cigarettes by Distribution Format: % Analysis 2005-2010
  • Table 33 Cigarettes: Production, Imports and Exports: Total Volume 2005-2010
  • Table 34 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: Volume 2010-2015
  • Table 35 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: Value 2010-2015
  • Table 36 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: % Volume Growth 2010-2015
  • Table 37 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: % Value Growth 2010-2015
  • Table 38 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Price Band: % Volume Breakdown 2010-2015
  • Table 39 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Standard/Menthol: % Volume Breakdown 2010-2015
  • Table 40 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tobacco Type: % Volume Breakdown 2010-2015
  • Table 41 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Filter Vs Non-filter: % Volume Breakdown 2010-2015
  • Table 42 Forecast Sales of Filter Cigarettes by Carbon Vs Non-carbon: % Volume Breakdown 2010-2015
  • Table 43 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Length: % Volume Breakdown 2010-2015
  • Table 44 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Regular/Slim: % Volume Breakdown 2010-2015
  • Table 45 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Pack Size: % Volume Breakdown 2010-2015
  • Table 46 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Pack Type: % Volume Breakdown 2010-2015

Cigars in Ireland - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • There is no strong tradition of cigar smoking in Ireland, beyond a ‘cigar boom’ from the mid-1980s to the mid-1990s, when cigars came to some prominence both in Ireland and globally, with premium cigar manufacturers reported to have struggled to keep up with demand. Over the boom years, steady growth was mostly driven by rising affluence, though typical consumption remained characterised by sporadic purchases by the older generation for special occasions.

HANDMADE VERSUS MACHINE-MANUFACTURED SPLITS

  • Table 47 Sales of Cigars by Handmade vs Machine-manufactured 2006-2010

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

  • There are four main players in cigars in Ireland: John Player & Sons, Gallaher (Dublin) Ltd, Ampersand and P J Carroll & Co Plc. Together, they accounted for 96% of volume sales in 2010.

NEW PRODUCT DEVELOPMENTS

  • Summary 11 Cigars and Cigarillos - New Product Launches

DISTRIBUTION

PROSPECTS

  • Volume sales of cigars are expected to decline by a further 2% CAGR to 2015. As was the case over the review period, it is likely that large cigars will be the hardest hit, with a projected decline a CAGR of 6% over the forecast period.

CATEGORY DATA

  • Table 48 Sales of Cigars by Category: Volume 2005-2010
  • Table 49 Sales of Cigars by Category: Value 2005-2010
  • Table 50 Sales of Cigars by Category: % Volume Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 51 Sales of Cigars by Category: % Value Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 52 Sales of Cigars by Handmade vs Machine Manufactured: % Volume Breakdown 2005-2010
  • Table 53 Company Shares of Cigars Excluding Cigarillos 2006-2010
  • Table 54 Brand Shares of Cigars Excluding Cigarillos 2007-2010
  • Table 55 Company Shares of Cigarillos 2006-2010
  • Table 56 Brand Shares of Cigarillos 2007-2010
  • Table 57 Sales of Cigars by Distribution Format: % Analysis 2005-2010
  • Table 58 Forecast Sales of Cigars by Category: Volume 2010-2015
  • Table 59 Forecast Sales of Cigars by Category: Value 2010-2015
  • Table 60 Forecast Sales of Cigars by Category: % Volume Growth 2010-2015
  • Table 61 Forecast Sales of Cigars by Category: % Value Growth 2010-2015

Smoking Tobacco in Ireland - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • Smoking tobacco grew an impressive 27% in volume in 2010 as the category continued to ride the wave of new consumers prompted to economise following the recession. Irish consumers have been put off by the increasing cost of cigarettes, which saw further duty increases in 2009 and 2010. Consumers are also attracted by the slew of combi packs from all the major RYO tobacco brands, which have focused on the value conscious format of 12.5g of tobacco and 50 rolling papers for €4.20. The illicit trade has also had a positive effect with those consumers put off from cheaper illegal cigarettes trading down to RYO tobacco products instead.

The role and effect of cannabis/marijuana

DISTRIBUTION

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

  • The three leading players in tobacco in Ireland, John Player & Sons, Gallaher (Dublin) Ltd and P J Carroll & Co Plc, are all present in smoking tobacco, with John Player & Sons dominating the category with a 61% volume share in 2010. The company had an impressive 2010 and increased its share by seven percentage points from the previous year. John Player & Sons’ leading brands, Drum and Golden Virginia, were able to both increase their respective share as well as boost RYO tobacco overall in 2010 with successful product launches. Of particular interest are the newly priced and packaged combi packs, which proved a huge hit with Irish consumers trading down in the recession.

NEW PRODUCT DEVELOPMENTS

PROSPECTS

  • Smoking tobacco is predicted to grow at an 11% CAGR by volume over the forecast period and at a 9% CAGR in constant value terms. Forecast growth rates are slightly slower than during the review period as the market matures slightly and the expected bounce provided by consumers trading down from cigarettes due to the recession proving to be less and less of a demand driver in the latter years of the forecast period.

CATEGORY DATA

  • Table 62 Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: Volume 2005-2010
  • Table 63 Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: Value 2005-2010
  • Table 64 Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 65 Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 66 Company Shares of RYO Tobacco 2006-2010
  • Table 67 Brand Shares of RYO Tobacco 2007-2010
  • Table 68 Company Shares of Pipe Tobacco 2006-2010
  • Table 69 Brand Shares of Pipe Tobacco 2007-2010
  • Table 70 Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Distribution Format: % Analysis 2005-2010
  • Table 71 Forecast Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: Volume 2010-2015
  • Table 72 Forecast Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: Value 2010-2015
  • Table 73 Forecast Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2010-2015
  • Table 74 Forecast Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2010-2015

Segmentation

Segmentation

This market research report includes the following:

  • Tobacco
    • Cigarettes
      • High Tar Cigarettes
      • Mid Tar Cigarettes
      • Low Tar Cigarettes
      • Ultra Low Tar Cigarettes
    • Cigars
      • Cigars Excluding Cigarillos
        • Large Cigars
        • Standard Cigars
        • Small Cigars
      • Cigarillos
    • Smoking Tobacco
      • RYO Tobacco
      • Pipe Tobacco
    • Smokeless Tobacco
      • Chewing Tobacco
        • Asian-Style Chewing Tobacco
        • US-Style Chewing Tobacco
        • Other Chewing Tobacco
      • Snuff
        • Moist Snuff
          • US-Style Moist Snuff ('Dip')
            • Loose US-Style Moist Snuff
            • Portion US-Style Moist Snuff
          • Swedish-Style Snus
            • Loose Swedish-Style Snus
            • Portion Swedish-Style Snus
          • Asian Style Creamy Snuff
        • Dry Snuff
        • Hard Snuff
    • Cigarettes Including RYO Stick Equivalent
      • High Tar Cigarettes
      • Mid Tar Cigarettes
      • Low Tar Cigarettes
      • Ultra Low Tar Cigarettes
      • RYO Cigarettes

Statistics Included

Statistics Included

For each category and subcategory you will receive the following data in Excel format:

From Passport

  • Market sizes
  • Company shares
  • Brand shares
  • Distribution
  • Analysis by type
  • Cigarettes by blend
  • Cigarettes by carbon filter/non-carbon filter
  • Cigarettes by filtered/unfiltered
  • Cigarettes by length
  • Cigarettes by pack size
  • Cigarettes by pack type
  • Cigarettes by price band
  • Cigarettes by regular/slim
  • Cigarettes by standard/menthol
  • Illicit trade penetration
  • Pricing
  • Products by ingredient
  • Products by ingredient
  • Smoking population - number of adult smokers
  • Smoking prevalence - % of adult population
  • Taxation
  • Trade statistics - volume

Market size details:

  • Retail volume
  • Retail volume % growth
  • Retail volume per capita
  • Retail value retail selling price % growth
  • Retail value retail selling price local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Retail value retail selling price per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Retail value retail selling price real (constant 2008) prices % growth
  • Retail value retail selling price real (constant 2008) prices local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Retail value retail selling price real (constant 2008) prices per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Illicit trade volume
  • Illicit trade volume % growth
  • Illicit trade volume per capita
  • Retail volume (sticks)
  • Retail volume (sticks) % growth
  • Retail volume (sticks) per capita
  • Retail value retail selling price nominal (current) prices % growth
  • Retail value retail selling price nominal (current) prices local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Retail value retail selling price nominal (current) prices per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Retail plus illicit trade
  • Retail plus illicit trade % growth
  • Retail plus illicit trade per capita

Methodology

Methodology

Global insight and local knowledge

With 40 years’ experience of developed and emerging markets, Euromonitor International’s research method is built on a unique combination of specialist industry knowledge and in-country research expertise.

This approach is what enables us to achieve our goal of building a market consensus view of size, shape and trends across the full distribution universe of each category. We factor in whichever channels are relevant, from large-scale grocery to direct sellers, from discount stores to local mom-and-pop outlets.

Industry specialists

Each industry we cover is managed by an Industry Manager and team of Industry Analysts who research and report on their specialist categories all year round.

Our collaborative approach to research means that these industry teams are in constant dialogue with industry players and opinion formers. The planning of our research programmes reflects latest market trends and industry events. In completing each update project, this provides invaluable input to the testing, review and finalisation of our data.

The specialist in-house teams bring together findings from all stages of the annual research process. They work closely with in-country analysts, assess and challenge data and exercise final editorial control over the publication of new data and analysis.

Country and regional analysts

Our in-country analyst network is managed by country and regional analysts in our offices around the world. Working closely with each in-country team, the regional research management team ensures that all country researchers are well schooled in best practices, from the information collected in store checks, to the dialogue we build in trade surveys. Our country analysts ensure that national reports explain the data trends and provide clear insights into the local market’s dynamics.

In-country research network

To deliver fresh insights every year in countries all around the world, we believe the strongest approach is to use analysts on the ground. They bring fluency in local language, physical proximity to the best sources, an ability to engage directly with local industry contacts, and an awareness of how the products and services we study are advertised, sold and consumed. These are essential parts of our ability to report incisively on these markets.

Research Methodology

Our research methods

Each Euromonitor International industry report is based on a core set of research techniques:

Desk research

With industry events, corporate activity, trends and new product introductions tracked year round by our industry team, desk research provides a starting point for the in-country research programme. Our in-country researchers will access the following sources:

  • National statistics offices governmental and official sources
  • National and international trade press
  • National and international trade associations
  • Industry study groups and other semi-official sources
  • Company financials and annual reports
  • Broker reports
  • Online databases
  • The financial, business and mainstream press

Accessing sources is only the first step. The ability to interpret and reconcile often conflicting information across multiple sources is a key aspect of the added value we provide.

Store checks

Store checks are an integral part of our methods for product industries. Carried out on the ground across a relevant mix of channels, the information gained provides first-hand insights into the products we are researching, specifically:

  • Place: We track products in all relevant channels, selective and mass, store and non-store
  • Product: What are innovations in products, pack sizes and formats?
  • Price: What are brand price variations across channels, how do private label’s prices compare to those of branded goods?
  • Promotion: What are marketing and merchandising trends, offers, discounts and tie-ins?

Findings are cross-referenced with brand share data analysis. The results, combined with the findings of desk research, provide a strong basis for identifying key areas of questioning to take forward into our trade survey.

Trade survey

Interaction with global players at corporate HQ and regional levels is complemented by unique local data and insights from our in-country trade surveys around the world. Through the high profile of the Euromonitor International brand, we are able to talk directly to a wide range of sources and therefore inform our analysis with the knowledge and opinions of the leading operators in the market.

Trade surveys allow us to:

  • Fill gaps in available published data per company
  • Generate a consensus view of the size, structure and strategic direction of the category
  • Access year-in-progress data where published sources are out of date
  • Evaluate the experts’ views on current trends and market developments

In building our composite industry view, we engage with a variety of personnel in key players at all points of the supply chain: materials suppliers, manufacturers, distributors, retailers and service operators. We also interview desk research sources: industry associations; study groups; and third party observers from the trade and financial press.

Our objective is to engage in conversation with trade sources in which we exchange ideas and views on the industry, sharing our work-in-progress findings on supply/demand dynamics and potential. This dialogue enhances both parties’ understanding of the local market. The scope and reach of our trade survey also serves to eliminate bias (intentional and unintentional) from any single source.

Company analysis

At a global level, our company research combines our mix of industry interaction and use of secondary sources such as annual accounts, broker reports, financial press and databases. From a data perspective, the aim is to build “top-down” estimates of major players’ total global and regional sales.

At a country level, in line with local reporting requirements, we access annual accounts, national-specific company databases and local company websites. These are all invaluable sources as we build a view of each domestic player’s size and position within very specific categories of the industry.

Forecasts

Data projections and future performance analysis are key elements of Euromonitor International’s market intelligence. Working with historic trends of 15 years or more, a key aspect of our trade survey is to engage industry insider views of the next five years. Will volumes maintain their historic trend? Will price increases or falls of recent years continue, accelerate or slow down? Will increasing demand for one product cannibalise sales of another?

Forecasts represent many of the essential conclusions we have reached about the current state of the market, how it works and how it behaves under different macro and micro conditions. Our written analysis will state the assumptions and the trade opinion behind whether our predictions are optimistic or pessimistic, so that clients can use our statistical forecasts with confidence.

Data validation

All data is subjected to an exhaustive review process, at country, regional and global levels.

The interpretation and review of sources and data inputs forms a central part of the collaboration between industry teams and country researchers. Numbers are delivered to regional and global offices with an audit trail of sources and calculations to allow for a thorough evaluation of data sense and integrity.

Upon completion of the country review phase, data is then reviewed on a comparative basis at regional and then at a global level. Comparative checks are carried out on per capita consumption and spending levels, growth rates, patterns of category and subcategory breakdowns and distribution of sales by channel. Top-down estimates are reviewed against bottom-up regional and global market and company sales totals.

Where marked differences are seen between proximate country markets or ones at similar developmental levels, supplementary research is conducted in the relevant countries to confirm and/or amend those findings. This process ensures international comparability across the database, that consistent category and subcategory definitions have been used and that all data has been correctly tested. We make sure that possible discrepancies between different published sources have been reconciled and that our interpretation of opinion and expectation from each country’s trade sources has been applied to form a coherent international pattern.

Market analysis

Another integral part of all our research programmes is that all Euromonitor International data is accompanied by clear written analysis. From a research perspective, this explains and substantiates data findings. From a client perspective, this offers unique insights into local consumption trends, routes to market, brand preferences, channel dynamics and future trends.

Our country level analysis also provides invaluable input into the ability of our central industry specialist teams to marry local insights with strategic conclusions on the direction of the market regionally and globally.

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