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Country Report

Tobacco in Ireland

Sep 2012

Price: US$1,900

About this Report

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Unending economic woes?

By the end of 2010 and start of 2011 there was a growing feeling in Ireland that the economic crisis which began in late 2007/early 2008 had turned a corner. The banks had been recapitalised, exports were growing strongly, austerity measures were being accepted by compliant citizens and unemployment seemed to be stabilising. However, the crisis took another direction and problems continued with the contagion spreading to a fully-fledged existential crisis in terms of European unity. With this came a further lack of consumer confidence and household spending cutbacks, both of which continued to undermine the tobacco market.

Fighting illicit cigarette trade

Ireland has proven to be increasingly fertile ground for tobacco smuggling. Around 30% of cigarettes consumed in Ireland are said to have no duty paid to the Irish exchequer. This represents a considerable level of tax leakage for a state that cannot afford to lose any tax revenue. Retail organisations such as Retailers Against Smuggling and industry groups such as the Irish Tobacco Manufacturers’ Advisory Council (ITMAC) have voiced concerns that spiralling taxation on tobacco has fuelled the trade in cigarette smuggling. As opposed to increasing the tax taken by the state, tax legislation has contrived inadvertently to reduce the tax taken from tobacco. The government has accepted that pre-existing legislation dealing with tobacco smuggling was too lax and has increased the size of fines that the courts can levy on those found guilty of smuggling tobacco.

RYO tobacco continues to perform well

Roll-your-own (RYO) tobacco had been seen as the preserve of poor students, the unemployed and undesirables, such as those fond of smoking cannabis. However, in recent years, the RYO category has seen renewed vigour as there has been a pronounced ‘drift to thrift’ across all sections in Ireland. The combination of recession and austerity has meant that smoking is becoming an increasingly expensive habit. RYO tobacco offers consumers a significantly more affordable and flexible approach to cigarette smoking.

Smoking prevalence declines

There has been some debate in Ireland regarding the extent of the smoking population. Figures from both the industry and the Department of Health differ by some degree. However, there is a clear trend within the figures towards a decline in smoking prevalence since the introduction of the smoking ban, and it is continuing to fall. It is becoming increasingly difficult to maintain a smoking habit, from both a cost, comfort and health point of view. Many people would seem to be concluding that it is simply no longer worth the effort.

Market stability

The established leaders remained at the helm of the market in 2011, with Gallaher (Dublin) Ltd taking top position, followed by John Player & Sons and P J Carroll & Co Plc, with other players having only a minimal presence. Gallaher’s leadership can be attributed to its strong position in the largest tobacco category, cigarettes. As smoking continues to fall in popularity, players have tended to focus on consolidating their existing products through re-launches and new designs rather than venturing into new areas. In addition to the leading companies, the leading brands retained their positions over the course of the review period in cigarettes, cigars and smoking tobacco. The top three in each category remained unchanged. It would appear that Irish smokers are very clear about what they like to smoke.


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Overview

Discover the latest market trends and uncover sources of future market growth for the Tobacco industry in Ireland with research from Euromonitor's team of in-country analysts.

Find hidden opportunities in the most current research data available, understand competitive threats with our detailed market analysis, and plan your corporate strategy with our expert qualitative analysis and growth projections.

If you're in the Tobacco industry in Ireland, our research will save you time and money while empowering you to make informed, profitable decisions.

When you purchase this report, you also get the data and the content from these category reports in Ireland for free:

The Tobacco in Ireland market research report includes:

  • Analysis of key supply-side and demand trends
  • Detailed segmentation of international and local products
  • Historic volumes and values, company and brand market shares
  • Five year forecasts of market trends and market growth
  • Production, imports by origin, exports by destination
  • Robust and transparent market research methodology, conducted in-country

Our market research reports answer questions such as:

  • What is the market size of Tobacco in Ireland?
  • What are the major brands in Ireland?
  • Which sector of the tobacco products market is the largest by value sales in Ireland?
  • Which sector of the tobacco products market has been growing the fastest, by volume and value, in Ireland?
  • Which sector is the most heavily taxed in Ireland?
  • Which companies dominate in the total tobacco market in Ireland in terms of market share?
  • What is the distribution channel split for the tobacco products market in Ireland?

Why buy this report?

  • Gain competitive intelligence about market leaders
  • Track key industry trends, opportunities and threats
  • Inform your marketing, brand, strategy and market development, sales and supply functions

This industry report originates from Passport, our Tobacco market research database.

Table of Contents

Table of Contents

Tobacco in Ireland - Industry Overview

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Unending economic woes?

Fighting illicit cigarette trade

RYO tobacco continues to perform well

Smoking prevalence declines

Market stability

OPERATING ENVIRONMENT

LEGISLATION

  • Summary 1 Legislation Summary at a Glance

Country-specific legislation:

Minimum legal smoking age

Smoking prevalence

  • Table 1 Smoking Prevalence in Adult Population 2006-2011
  • Table 2 Number of Smokers by Gender 2006-2011

Tar levels

Health warnings

Advertising & sponsorship

Point-of-sale display bans

Smoking in public places

Low ignition propensity (LIP) regulation

Electronic cigarettes

Litigation

Death by cause

  • Table 3 Death by Cause 2007-2011

TAXATION AND PRICING

Duty paid packet marks

Taxation rates

  • Table 4 Taxation and Duty Levies 2006-2011

Average cigarette pack price breakdown

  • Table 5 Average Cigarette Pack Price Breakdown: Brand Examples

PRODUCTION/IMPORTS/EXPORTS

  • Table 6 Trade Statistics – Cigarettes 2007-2011

Illicit trade in cigarettes

MARKET INDICATORS

  • Table 7 Illicit Trade Estimate of Cigarettes by Volume 2006-2011

MARKET DATA

  • Table 8 Sales of Tobacco by Category: Volume 2006-2011
  • Table 9 Sales of Tobacco by Category: Value 2006-2011
  • Table 10 Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 11 Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 12 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: Volume 2011-2016
  • Table 13 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: Value 2011-2016
  • Table 14 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2011-2016
  • Table 15 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2011-2016

SOURCES

  • Summary 2 Research Sources

Tobacco in Ireland - Company Profiles

Carroll & Co Plc, P J in Tobacco (Ireland)

STRATEGIC DIRECTION

KEY FACTS

COMPANY BACKGROUND

PRODUCTION

COMPETITIVE POSITIONING

  • Summary 4 P J Carroll & Co Plc: Competitive Position 2011

Gallaher (Dublin) Ltd in Tobacco (Ireland)

STRATEGIC DIRECTION

KEY FACTS

COMPANY BACKGROUND

PRODUCTION

COMPETITIVE POSITIONING

  • Summary 6 Gallaher (Dublin) Ltd: Competitive Position 2011

Player & Sons, John in Tobacco (Ireland)

STRATEGIC DIRECTION

KEY FACTS

COMPANY BACKGROUND

PRODUCTION

COMPETITIVE POSITIONING

  • Summary 8 John Player & Sons: Competitive Position 2011

Cigarettes in Ireland - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • Volume sales of cigarettes continued to decline in 2011, marking the fifth year in succession that the category had shrunk in volume terms. In fact, the category only achieved positive growth twice during the past decade, and that may have had more to do with a population spike due to net inward migration during the boom years rather than a sustainable increase in smoking prevalence among the population.

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

  • The cigarette category in Ireland is highly concentrated in the hands of the three main players, Gallaher (Dublin) Ltd, John Player & Sons and P J Carroll & Co Plc. These three companies maintained their positions throughout the review period and are expected to continue to do so over the forecast period. All three firms are Irish subsidiaries of large international tobacco companies. Gallaher (Dublin) Ltd is a subsidiary of Japan Tobacco, John Player & Sons is a subsidiary of Imperial Tobacco while P J Carroll & Co is a subsidiary of British American Tobacco.

NEW PRODUCT DEVELOPMENTS

  • Summary 9 Cigarettes - New Product Launches

DISTRIBUTION

PROSPECTS

  • The outlook for cigarette sales in Ireland is not rosy. Smoking prevalence is declining across all age groups but most particularly among young adults. The population is no longer growing at the rates experienced during the past decade. Regulation concerning the advertising, promotion and use of tobacco is stricter than ever. Finally, the tax burden on cigarettes is increasing once again. This has created a difficult trading environment for manufacturers which are unable to present their products to the public for perusal and adjust their prices and size offerings in order to cater for consumers of varying means.

CATEGORY BACKGROUND

Cigarettes: Price bands

  • Summary 10 Cigarette Price Band Definitions

Cigarettes: Menthol/standard

Cigarettes: Filter/non-filter

Cigarettes: Carbon/standard filter

Cigarettes: Filter length

Cigarettes: Regular vs slims vs superslims

Cigarettes: Pack size

Cigarettes: Pack type

CATEGORY DATA

  • Table 16 Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: Volume 2006-2011
  • Table 17 Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: Value 2006-2011
  • Table 18 Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: % Volume Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 19 Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: % Value Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 20 Sales of Cigarettes by Price Band: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 21 Sales of Cigarettes by Standard/Menthol: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 22 Sales of Cigarettes by Tobacco Type: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 23 Sales of Cigarettes by Filter Vs Non-filter: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 24 Sales of Filter Cigarettes by Carbon Vs Non-carbon: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 25 Sales of Cigarettes by Length: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 26 Sales of Cigarettes by Regular/Slim/Superslim: % Volume Breakdown 2007-2011
  • Table 27 Sales of Cigarettes by Pack Size: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 28 Sales of Cigarettes by Pack Type: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 29 Cigarettes Company Shares 2007-2011
  • Table 30 Cigarettes Brand Shares 2008-2011
  • Table 31 Sales of Cigarettes by Distribution Format: % Analysis 2006-2011
  • Table 32 Cigarettes: Production, Imports and Exports: Total Volume 2006-2011
  • Table 33 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: Volume 2011-2016
  • Table 34 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: Value 2011-2016
  • Table 35 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: % Volume Growth 2011-2016
  • Table 36 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: % Value Growth 2011-2016
  • Table 37 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Price Band: % Volume Breakdown 2011-2016
  • Table 38 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Standard/Menthol: % Volume Breakdown 2011-2016
  • Table 39 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tobacco Type: % Volume Breakdown 2011-2016
  • Table 40 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Filter Vs Non-filter: % Volume Breakdown 2011-2016
  • Table 41 Forecast Sales of Filter Cigarettes by Carbon Vs Non-carbon: % Volume Breakdown 2011-2016
  • Table 42 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Length: % Volume Breakdown 2011-2016
  • Table 43 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Regular/Slim/Superslim: % Volume Breakdown 2011-2016
  • Table 44 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Pack Size: % Volume Breakdown 2011-2016
  • Table 45 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Pack Type: % Volume Breakdown 2011-2016

Cigars in Ireland - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • Ireland is not a country where cigar smoking is prevalent. In fact, it has remained a niche activity for much of recent history. Per capita cigar consumption has declined every year over the past 15 years. Given that this pre-dates the smoking ban, the decline of cigar smoking has to be seen in a broader context. Cigars in Ireland have never enjoyed popularity among young adults, particularly females. The image of a cigar smoker is a rotund middle-aged gentleman of ruddy complexion. Typically, cigars have been enjoyed at sporting events such as rugby, horse racing and golf or at social and leisure events such as in restaurants. Unlike cigarette smoking, whereby consumers smoke cigarettes regularly throughout the day, cigar smoking has tended to be built around enjoyable social events or celebrations.

HANDMADE VERSUS MACHINE-MANUFACTURED SPLITS

  • Table 46 Sales of Cigars by Handmade vs Machine-made: % Volume/Value Breakdown 2007-2011

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

  • There are four main players in cigars in Ireland - John Player & Sons, Gallaher (Dublin) Ltd, Ampersand and P J Carroll & Co Plc. Together, they accounted for 94% of volume sales in 2011.

NEW PRODUCT DEVELOPMENTS

DISTRIBUTION

PROSPECTS

  • Volume sales of cigars are expected to decline by a further 1% annually to 2016. As was the case over the review period, it is likely that large cigars will be the hardest hit, with a projected CAGR decline of over 2% over the forecast period.

CATEGORY DATA

  • Table 47 Sales of Cigars by Category: Volume 2006-2011
  • Table 48 Sales of Cigars by Category: Value 2006-2011
  • Table 49 Sales of Cigars by Category: % Volume Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 50 Sales of Cigars by Category: % Value Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 51 Sales of Cigars by Handmade vs Machine-manufactured: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 52 Sales of Cigars by Handmade vs Machine-manufactured: % Value Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 53 Company Shares of Cigars Excluding Cigarillos 2007-2011
  • Table 54 Brand Shares of Cigars Excluding Cigarillos 2008-2011
  • Table 55 Company Shares of Cigarillos 2007-2011
  • Table 56 Brand Shares of Cigarillos 2008-2011
  • Table 57 Sales of Cigars by Distribution Format: % Analysis 2006-2011
  • Table 58 Forecast Sales of Cigars by Category: Volume 2011-2016
  • Table 59 Forecast Sales of Cigars by Category: Value 2011-2016
  • Table 60 Forecast Sales of Cigars by Category: % Volume Growth 2011-2016
  • Table 61 Forecast Sales of Cigars by Category: % Value Growth 2011-2016

Smokeless Tobacco in Ireland - Category Analysis

TRENDS

  • There is no market for smokeless tobacco in Ireland

Smoking Tobacco in Ireland - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • Smoking tobacco was a niche in the overall tobacco market in Ireland until recently. There has always been a tradition for pipe smoking in Ireland, particularly in rural areas. This tradition is dying out as elderly men are not being replaced by new younger smokers. Pipe tobacco is now seen as something of the past rather than the present. While many Irish people have nostalgic memories of the aroma of pipe smoke, not too many are translating this into actually taking up pipe smoking. On the other hand, RYO tobacco has enjoyed a curious relationship with Ireland. For a long time it was associated with those that liked to smoke but could not afford or were not prepared to pay for pre-rolled cigarettes. It was prevalent among students and the unemployed or lowly paid, as well as being popular among those that enjoyed cannabis. The recession has changed much of that. RYO tobacco is yet another product that is benefiting from the gradual ‘drift to thrift’ among the Irish populace. RYO tobacco accounted for the equivalent of 272 million sticks per annum in 2011, equivalent to more than 6% of total cigarette sales.

THE ROLE AND EFFECT OF CANNABIS/MARIJUANA

DISTRIBUTION

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

  • John Player & Sons continued to dominate the category in 2011 with a 65% volume share. Over the review period the company gained nearly 20 percentage points, giving it a 42 percentage point lead on its nearest rival. The key driver of the success of John Player & Sons has been the growth of Golden Virginia RYO tobacco, which gained share to the tune of 17.5 percentage points over the review period as the popularity of RYO tobacco increased. The company also owns the second leading brand, Drum, which saw its share grow by five percentage points over the review period.

NEW PRODUCT DEVELOPMENTS

  • Summary 11 Smoking Tobacco - New Product Launches

PROSPECTS

  • Smoking tobacco is predicted a 6% volume CAGR over the forecast period and an 8% CAGR in constant value terms. Forecast growth rates will be lower than those of the review period as the category matures slightly and the expected bounce provided by consumers trading down from cigarettes due to the recession proves to be less of a demand driver over the latter years of the forecast period.

CATEGORY DATA

  • Table 62 Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: Volume 2006-2011
  • Table 63 Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: Value 2006-2011
  • Table 64 Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 65 Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 66 Company Shares of RYO Tobacco 2007-2011
  • Table 67 Brand Shares of RYO Tobacco 2008-2011
  • Table 68 Company Shares of Pipe Tobacco 2007-2011
  • Table 69 Brand Shares of Pipe Tobacco 2008-2011
  • Table 70 Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Distribution Format: % Analysis 2006-2011
  • Table 71 Forecast Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: Volume 2011-2016
  • Table 72 Forecast Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: Value 2011-2016
  • Table 73 Forecast Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2011-2016
  • Table 74 Forecast Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2011-2016

Segmentation

Segmentation

This market research report includes the following:

  • Tobacco
    • Cigarettes
      • High Tar Cigarettes
      • Mid Tar Cigarettes
      • Low Tar Cigarettes
      • Ultra Low Tar Cigarettes
    • Cigars
      • Cigars Excluding Cigarillos
        • Large Cigars
        • Standard Cigars
        • Small Cigars
      • Cigarillos
    • Smoking Tobacco
      • RYO Tobacco
      • Pipe Tobacco
    • Smokeless Tobacco
      • Chewing Tobacco
        • Asian-Style Chewing Tobacco
        • US-Style Chewing Tobacco
        • Other Chewing Tobacco
      • Snuff
        • Moist Snuff
          • US-Style Moist Snuff ('Dip')
            • Loose US-Style Moist Snuff
            • Portion US-Style Moist Snuff
          • Swedish-Style Snus
            • Loose Swedish-Style Snus
            • Portion Swedish-Style Snus
          • Asian Style Creamy Snuff
        • Dry Snuff
        • Hard Snuff
    • Cigarettes Including RYO Stick Equivalent
      • High Tar Cigarettes
      • Mid Tar Cigarettes
      • Low Tar Cigarettes
      • Ultra Low Tar Cigarettes
      • RYO Cigarettes

Statistics Included

Statistics Included

For each category and subcategory you will receive the following data in Excel format:

From Passport

  • Market sizes
  • Company shares
  • Brand shares
  • Distribution
  • Analysis by type
  • Cigarettes by blend
  • Cigarettes by carbon filter/non-carbon filter
  • Cigarettes by filtered/unfiltered
  • Cigarettes by length
  • Cigarettes by pack size
  • Cigarettes by pack type
  • Cigarettes by price band
  • Cigarettes by regular/slim/superslim
  • Cigarettes by standard/menthol
  • Illicit trade penetration
  • Pricing
  • Products by ingredient
  • Products by ingredient
  • Smoking population - number of adult smokers
  • Smoking prevalence - % of adult population
  • Taxation
  • Trade statistics - volume

Market size details:

  • Retail volume
  • Retail volume % growth
  • Retail volume per capita
  • Retail value retail selling price % growth
  • Retail value retail selling price local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Retail value retail selling price per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Illicit trade volume
  • Illicit trade volume % growth
  • Illicit trade volume per capita
  • Retail volume (sticks)
  • Retail volume (sticks) % growth
  • Retail volume (sticks) per capita
  • Retail plus illicit trade
  • Retail plus illicit trade % growth
  • Retail plus illicit trade per capita

Methodology

Methodology

Global insight and local knowledge

With 40 years’ experience of developed and emerging markets, Euromonitor International’s research method is built on a unique combination of specialist industry knowledge and in-country research expertise.

This approach is what enables us to achieve our goal of building a market consensus view of size, shape and trends across the full distribution universe of each category. We factor in whichever channels are relevant, from large-scale grocery to direct sellers, from discount stores to local mom-and-pop outlets.

Industry specialists

Each industry we cover is managed by an Industry Manager and team of Industry Analysts who research and report on their specialist categories all year round.

Our collaborative approach to research means that these industry teams are in constant dialogue with industry players and opinion formers. The planning of our research programmes reflects latest market trends and industry events. In completing each update project, this provides invaluable input to the testing, review and finalisation of our data.

The specialist in-house teams bring together findings from all stages of the annual research process. They work closely with in-country analysts, assess and challenge data and exercise final editorial control over the publication of new data and analysis.

Country and regional analysts

Our in-country analyst network is managed by country and regional analysts in our offices around the world. Working closely with each in-country team, the regional research management team ensures that all country researchers are well schooled in best practices, from the information collected in store checks, to the dialogue we build in trade surveys. Our country analysts ensure that national reports explain the data trends and provide clear insights into the local market’s dynamics.

In-country research network

To deliver fresh insights every year in countries all around the world, we believe the strongest approach is to use analysts on the ground. They bring fluency in local language, physical proximity to the best sources, an ability to engage directly with local industry contacts, and an awareness of how the products and services we study are advertised, sold and consumed. These are essential parts of our ability to report incisively on these markets.

Research Methodology

Our research methods

Each Euromonitor International industry report is based on a core set of research techniques:

Desk research

With industry events, corporate activity, trends and new product introductions tracked year round by our industry team, desk research provides a starting point for the in-country research programme. Our in-country researchers will access the following sources:

  • National statistics offices governmental and official sources
  • National and international trade press
  • National and international trade associations
  • Industry study groups and other semi-official sources
  • Company financials and annual reports
  • Broker reports
  • Online databases
  • The financial, business and mainstream press

Accessing sources is only the first step. The ability to interpret and reconcile often conflicting information across multiple sources is a key aspect of the added value we provide.

Store checks

Store checks are an integral part of our methods for product industries. Carried out on the ground across a relevant mix of channels, the information gained provides first-hand insights into the products we are researching, specifically:

  • Place: We track products in all relevant channels, selective and mass, store and non-store
  • Product: What are innovations in products, pack sizes and formats?
  • Price: What are brand price variations across channels, how do private label’s prices compare to those of branded goods?
  • Promotion: What are marketing and merchandising trends, offers, discounts and tie-ins?

Findings are cross-referenced with brand share data analysis. The results, combined with the findings of desk research, provide a strong basis for identifying key areas of questioning to take forward into our trade survey.

Trade survey

Interaction with global players at corporate HQ and regional levels is complemented by unique local data and insights from our in-country trade surveys around the world. Through the high profile of the Euromonitor International brand, we are able to talk directly to a wide range of sources and therefore inform our analysis with the knowledge and opinions of the leading operators in the market.

Trade surveys allow us to:

  • Fill gaps in available published data per company
  • Generate a consensus view of the size, structure and strategic direction of the category
  • Access year-in-progress data where published sources are out of date
  • Evaluate the experts’ views on current trends and market developments

In building our composite industry view, we engage with a variety of personnel in key players at all points of the supply chain: materials suppliers, manufacturers, distributors, retailers and service operators. We also interview desk research sources: industry associations; study groups; and third party observers from the trade and financial press.

Our objective is to engage in conversation with trade sources in which we exchange ideas and views on the industry, sharing our work-in-progress findings on supply/demand dynamics and potential. This dialogue enhances both parties’ understanding of the local market. The scope and reach of our trade survey also serves to eliminate bias (intentional and unintentional) from any single source.

Company analysis

At a global level, our company research combines our mix of industry interaction and use of secondary sources such as annual accounts, broker reports, financial press and databases. From a data perspective, the aim is to build “top-down” estimates of major players’ total global and regional sales.

At a country level, in line with local reporting requirements, we access annual accounts, national-specific company databases and local company websites. These are all invaluable sources as we build a view of each domestic player’s size and position within very specific categories of the industry.

Forecasts

Data projections and future performance analysis are key elements of Euromonitor International’s market intelligence. Working with historic trends of 15 years or more, a key aspect of our trade survey is to engage industry insider views of the next five years. Will volumes maintain their historic trend? Will price increases or falls of recent years continue, accelerate or slow down? Will increasing demand for one product cannibalise sales of another?

Forecasts represent many of the essential conclusions we have reached about the current state of the market, how it works and how it behaves under different macro and micro conditions. Our written analysis will state the assumptions and the trade opinion behind whether our predictions are optimistic or pessimistic, so that clients can use our statistical forecasts with confidence.

Data validation

All data is subjected to an exhaustive review process, at country, regional and global levels.

The interpretation and review of sources and data inputs forms a central part of the collaboration between industry teams and country researchers. Numbers are delivered to regional and global offices with an audit trail of sources and calculations to allow for a thorough evaluation of data sense and integrity.

Upon completion of the country review phase, data is then reviewed on a comparative basis at regional and then at a global level. Comparative checks are carried out on per capita consumption and spending levels, growth rates, patterns of category and subcategory breakdowns and distribution of sales by channel. Top-down estimates are reviewed against bottom-up regional and global market and company sales totals.

Where marked differences are seen between proximate country markets or ones at similar developmental levels, supplementary research is conducted in the relevant countries to confirm and/or amend those findings. This process ensures international comparability across the database, that consistent category and subcategory definitions have been used and that all data has been correctly tested. We make sure that possible discrepancies between different published sources have been reconciled and that our interpretation of opinion and expectation from each country’s trade sources has been applied to form a coherent international pattern.

Market analysis

Another integral part of all our research programmes is that all Euromonitor International data is accompanied by clear written analysis. From a research perspective, this explains and substantiates data findings. From a client perspective, this offers unique insights into local consumption trends, routes to market, brand preferences, channel dynamics and future trends.

Our country level analysis also provides invaluable input into the ability of our central industry specialist teams to marry local insights with strategic conclusions on the direction of the market regionally and globally.

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