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Country Report

Tobacco in Japan

Nov 2012

Price: US$1,900

About this Report

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

March 2011 earthquake affects market landscape of cigarettes

On 11 March 2011, the Tohoku region of Japan experienced a massive earthquake which set off a tsunami. This dual disaster resulted in widespread and severe destruction. Japan Tobacco Inc’s production facilities were severely affected and were forced to temporarily terminate production of cigarettes. Japan Tobacco Inc is the leading manufacturer in Japan and its supply shortage induced consumers to substitute with other imported brands. Competitors’ volume sales demonstrated strong growth in volume share and RYOs also exhibited sharp growth over the review period. The twin disasters resulted in relatively large company share movement in 2011.

Economy cigarettes register strongest growth

With the slow recovery of the economy, consumers are trading down to economy cigarettes. Japan Tobacco Inc’s economy brands such as Echo and Wakaba sharply increased sales. Both Echo and Wakaba are categorised as ex-class 3 cigarettes and lower tax rates are applied. Echo and Wakaba cost approximately half of premium cigarettes and these economy brands were mainly supported by price-sensitive consumers who would rather maintain their smoking frequency and give up on quality. In Japan, the price of cigarettes is never discounted due to regulations and even the bulk purchase price remains the same. Smokers continued to look for alternative ways to maintain their smoking frequency during the review period.

Low and ultra low tar cigarettes increase in popularity

Over the past 10 years, the volume share of high tar cigarettes has declined and the market average of nicotine level has also decreased. With rising awareness of health and the risks of smoking, consumers have gradually shifted from high tar to lower tar cigarettes. Manufacturers promote low and ultra low tar cigarettes by stating tar level explicitly on packaging. For ultra low tar cigarettes, tar level is commonly included in the brand name to highlight the light flavour of tobacco. Japanese smokers prefer a mild taste and the majority of cigarettes are filtered. Since 2008, the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare (MHLW) mandated an annual health check-up among employed individuals and contributed to wider awareness of the health risks associated with smoking.

Value sales of cigarettes increase while volume declines

Although value sales of cigarettes increased, volume sales declined in 2011. Manufacturers announced an increase in cigarettes prices after a tax rise in 2010 and overall price bands experienced an upward shift. Thanks to a major price increase in 2010, manufacturers were able to maintain value sales in 2011 even though consumers decreased the frequency of smoking and traded down to economy cigarettes. In order to maintain value sales, manufacturers are launching premium cigarettes targeted at working individuals who look for luxury in smoking. Manufacturers made continuous efforts in new product development and tried to maintain value sales by offering value-added products such as LSS (Less Smoke and Smell) cigarettes.

Consumers increase purchase of RYOs to economise on tobacco spending

Although the market size of RYO tobacco still remains relatively small, RYOs are the fastest growing category. After the tobacco tax increase in 2010, consumers increased purchases of RYOs to economise on tobacco expenditure. RYOs are taxed by weight of tobacco leaves and consumers can adjust the amount of tobacco leaves per smoke to save money. Since cigarettes are pre-rolled and taxed by number of cigarettes, price-sensitive consumers shifted some of their purchases to RYOs. Smokers can mix the flavours of various tobacco leaves and RYO’s flexibility was valued by consumers. In order to appeal to price-sensitive consumers, retailers are promoting economy RYOs.


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Overview

Discover the latest market trends and uncover sources of future market growth for the Tobacco industry in Japan with research from Euromonitor's team of in-country analysts.

Find hidden opportunities in the most current research data available, understand competitive threats with our detailed market analysis, and plan your corporate strategy with our expert qualitative analysis and growth projections.

If you're in the Tobacco industry in Japan, our research will save you time and money while empowering you to make informed, profitable decisions.

When you purchase this report, you also get the data and the content from these category reports in Japan for free:

The Tobacco in Japan market research report includes:

  • Analysis of key supply-side and demand trends
  • Detailed segmentation of international and local products
  • Historic volumes and values, company and brand market shares
  • Five year forecasts of market trends and market growth
  • Production, imports by origin, exports by destination
  • Robust and transparent market research methodology, conducted in-country

Our market research reports answer questions such as:

  • What is the market size of Tobacco in Japan?
  • What are the major brands in Japan?
  • Which sector of the tobacco products market is the largest by value sales in Japan?
  • Which sector of the tobacco products market has been growing the fastest, by volume and value, in Japan?
  • Which sector is the most heavily taxed in Japan?
  • Which companies dominate in the total tobacco market in Japan in terms of market share?
  • What is the distribution channel split for the tobacco products market in Japan?

Why buy this report?

  • Gain competitive intelligence about market leaders
  • Track key industry trends, opportunities and threats
  • Inform your marketing, brand, strategy and market development, sales and supply functions

This industry report originates from Passport, our Tobacco market research database.

Table of Contents

Table of Contents

Tobacco in Japan - Industry Overview

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

March 2011 earthquake affects market landscape of cigarettes

Economy cigarettes register strongest growth

Low and ultra low tar cigarettes increase in popularity

Value sales of cigarettes increase while volume declines

Consumers increase purchase of RYOs to economise on tobacco spending

OPERATING ENVIRONMENT

Legislative overview/ FCTC ratification

  • Summary 1 Legislation Summary at a Glance

Country-specific legislation:

Minimum legal smoking age

Smoking prevalence

  • Table 1 Smoking Prevalence in Adult Population 2006-2011
  • Table 2 Number of Smokers by Gender 2006-2011

Tar levels

Health warnings

Advertising and sponsorship

Point-of-sale display bans

Smoking in public places

Low ignition propensity (LIP) regulation

‘Reduced harm’

Electronic cigarettes

Litigation

Death by cause

  • Table 3 Death by Cause 2007-2011

TAXATION AND PRICING

Duty paid packet marks

Taxation rates

  • Table 4 Taxation and Duty Levies 2006-2011

Average cigarette pack price breakdown

  • Table 5 Average Cigarette Pack Price Breakdown: Brand Examples

PRODUCTION/IMPORTS/EXPORTS

Illicit trade in cigarettes

MARKET INDICATORS

  • Table 6 Illicit Trade Estimate of Cigarettes by Volume 2006-2011

MARKET DATA

  • Table 7 Sales of Tobacco by Category: Volume 2006-2011
  • Table 8 Sales of Tobacco by Category: Value 2006-2011
  • Table 9 Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 10 Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 11 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: Volume 2011-2016
  • Table 12 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: Value 2011-2016
  • Table 13 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2011-2016
  • Table 14 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2011-2016

DEFINITIONS

SOURCES

  • Summary 2 Research Sources

Tobacco in Japan - Company Profiles

British American Tobacco Japan Ltd in Tobacco (Japan)

STRATEGIC DIRECTION

KEY FACTS

COMPANY BACKGROUND

PRODUCTION

COMPETITIVE POSITIONING

  • Summary 4 British American Tobacco Japan Ltd: Competitive Position 2011

Japan Tobacco Inc in Tobacco (Japan)

STRATEGIC DIRECTION

KEY FACTS

COMPANY BACKGROUND

PRODUCTION

COMPETITIVE POSITIONING

  • Summary 7 Japan Tobacco Inc : Competitive Position 2011

Philip Morris Japan KK in Tobacco (Japan)

STRATEGIC DIRECTION

KEY FACTS

COMPANY BACKGROUND

PRODUCTION

COMPETITIVE POSITIONING

  • Summary 9 Philip Morris Japan KK: Competitive Position 2011

Cigarettes in Japan - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • Volume sales of cigarettes declined by 10% while value sales increased by 16% in 2011. With tax increase in October 2010, consumers reduced the frequency of their smoking to economise on spending and volume sales declined sharply in 2011. In October 2010, tobacco tax increased by 10% and this was the highest tax increase in Japanese history. The 10% tobacco tax increase translates into RSP price increases from ¥60 to ¥140 per packet. Considering that the average price of a cigarette packet is ¥400, the 2010 tax increase was a major price hike for consumers. Right before the October 2010 tax increase, consumers rushed to purchase cigarettes in bulk for future smoking and sales volume spiked sharply, followed by a sudden decline of sales volume in 2011.

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

  • On 11 March 2011 the Tohoku region of Japan experienced a massive earthquake which set off a tsunami. This dual disaster resulted in widespread and severe destruction. Leading manufacturer, Japan Tobacco Inc’s production plants in Fukushima and Tochigi prefectures were severely affected by the March earthquake. From 30 March to 10 April, Japan Tobacco Inc was forced to stop the production of all 97 of its types of cigarettes, which account for more than 50% of the cigarettes market. The temporary shortage of cigarette supply caused consumers to substitute with competitors’ products and this was particularly evident from April to September in 2011 when Japan Tobacco Inc reported sales volume decline of 40% for the six month period.

NEW PRODUCT DEVELOPMENTS

  • Summary 10 Cigarettes - New Product Launches

DISTRIBUTION

PROSPECTS

  • Over the forecast period, volume sales of cigarettes are expected to decrease with a CAGR of -1%. Although Japan is said to be one of the least regulated countries for smoking, the movement for banning public smoking is starting to appear in Japan. The seventh highly populated prefecture in Japan, Hyogo, is negotiating to pass a regional law which prohibits smoking in public areas such as schools and hospitals. The proposed regulations on public smoking are stricter than those in Kanagawa which is the first prefecture to establish regional laws to ban public smoking, mainly in facilities such as schools, hospitals and public offices. Although similar movements were observed in Chiba prefecture, it is still under discussion and the possible economic impact of such a ban on public smoking is being carefully reviewed. Bars and restaurants often welcome smokers and these food service industries are strong opponents of anti-tobacco laws. In addition to tax increases, anti-smoking sentiment is expected to put downward pressure on cigarettes consumption.

CATEGORY BACKGROUND

Cigarettes: price bands

  • Summary 11 Cigarette Price Band Definitions

Cigarettes: menthol/standard

Flavour threads and capsule filters:

Cigarettes: filter/non-filter

Cigarettes: carbon/standard filter

Cigarettes: filter length

Cigarettes: regular vs slims vs superslims

Cigarettes: pack size

Cigarettes: pack type

CATEGORY DATA

  • Table 15 Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: Volume 2006-2011
  • Table 16 Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: Value 2006-2011
  • Table 17 Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: % Volume Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 18 Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: % Value Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 19 Sales of Cigarettes by Price Band: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 20 Sales of Cigarettes by Standard/Menthol: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 21 Sales of Cigarettes by Tobacco Type: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 22 Sales of Cigarettes by Filter Vs Non-filter: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 23 Sales of Filter Cigarettes by Carbon Vs Non-carbon: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 24 Sales of Cigarettes by Length: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 25 Sales of Cigarettes by Regular/Slim/Superslim: % Volume Breakdown 2007-2011
  • Table 26 Sales of Cigarettes by Pack Size: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 27 Sales of Cigarettes by Pack Type: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 28 Cigarettes Company Shares 2007-2011
  • Table 29 Cigarettes Brand Shares 2008-2011
  • Table 30 Sales of Cigarettes by Distribution Format: % Analysis 2006-2011
  • Table 31 Cigarettes: Production, Imports and Exports: Total Volume 2006-2011
  • Table 32 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: Volume 2011-2016
  • Table 33 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: Value 2011-2016
  • Table 34 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: % Volume Growth 2011-2016
  • Table 35 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: % Value Growth 2011-2016
  • Table 36 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Price Band: % Volume Breakdown 2011-2016
  • Table 37 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Standard/Menthol: % Volume Breakdown 2011-2016
  • Table 38 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tobacco Type: % Volume Breakdown 2011-2016
  • Table 39 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Filter Vs Non-filter: % Volume Breakdown 2011-2016
  • Table 40 Forecast Sales of Filter Cigarettes by Carbon Vs Non-carbon: % Volume Breakdown 2011-2016
  • Table 41 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Length: % Volume Breakdown 2011-2016
  • Table 42 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Regular/Slim/Superslim: % Volume Breakdown 2011-2016
  • Table 43 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Pack Size: % Volume Breakdown 2011-2016
  • Table 44 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Pack Type: % Volume Breakdown 2011-2016

Cigars in Japan - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • Value sales of cigars declined by -6% in 2011. Cigars have been a niche market in Japan and the sales have not caught up since the huge decline experienced in 2008. With slow economic recovery, consumers are downgrading their premium cigars to economy units. Economy-priced small cigars and cigarillos saw an increase in sales volume in 2011. As small cigars and cigarillos are similar to cigarettes in their shape, consumers find them easier to adjust to.

HANDMADE VERSUS MACHINE MANUFACTURED SPLITS

  • Table 45 Sales of Cigars by Handmade vs Machine-made: % Volume Breakdown 2007-2011
  • Table 46 Sales of Cigars by Handmade vs Machine-made: % Value Breakdown 2007-2011

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

  • Cigars in Japan are 100% imported and there is no domestic production. Japan Tobacco Imex Co Ltd and British American Tobacco Japan Ltd together hold a 67% volume share in the cigars category.

NEW PRODUCT DEVELOPMENTS

  • Summary 12 Cigars - New Product Launches

DISTRIBUTION

PROSPECTS

  • Over the forecast period, value and volume sales of cigars are expected to decline with CAGRs of -0.4% and -0.7%, respectively. Sales of cigars are highly influenced by economic performance as consumers consider cigars to be luxury products. Economy-priced small cigars and cigarillos are expected to increase their share as consumers downgrade within cigar brands. In Japan, over 99% of tobacco value sales is generated within cigarettes, and the cigars category is expected to remain niche. With rising anti-smoking sentiment among non-smoking consumers, the growth potential of cigars does not seem promising.

CATEGORY DATA

  • Table 47 Sales of Cigars by Category: Volume 2006-2011
  • Table 48 Sales of Cigars by Category: Value 2006-2011
  • Table 49 Sales of Cigars by Category: % Volume Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 50 Sales of Cigars by Category: % Value Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 51 Sales of Cigars by Handmade vs Machine-manufactured: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 52 Sales of Cigars by Handmade vs Machine-manufactured: % Value Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 53 Company Shares of Cigars Excluding Cigarillos 2007-2011
  • Table 54 Brand Shares of Cigars Excluding Cigarillos 2008-2011
  • Table 55 Company Shares of Cigarillos 2007-2011
  • Table 56 Brand Shares of Cigarillos 2008-2011
  • Table 57 Sales of Cigars by Distribution Format: % Analysis 2006-2011
  • Table 58 Forecast Sales of Cigars by Category: Volume 2011-2016
  • Table 59 Forecast Sales of Cigars by Category: Value 2011-2016
  • Table 60 Forecast Sales of Cigars by Category: % Volume Growth 2011-2016
  • Table 61 Forecast Sales of Cigars by Category: % Value Growth 2011-2016

Smokeless Tobacco in Japan - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • Chewing tobacco and snuff have never been popular in Japan. Although smokeless tobacco is legally sold, its distribution is limited to certain tobacco specialists. Chewing tobacco and snuff are often socially unacceptable in Japanese society and thus the category remained insignificant in 2011.

NEW PRODUCT DEVELOPMENTS

  • Summary 13 Smokeless Tobacco - New Product Launches

Smoking Tobacco in Japan - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • Pipe and RYO tobacco in Japan have been niche categories with their joint value sales accounting for less than 0.02%. Pipe smoking has been popular among older men and it is often associated with seniority and a masculine image. On the other hand, RYOs are commonly consumed by a wide range of age groups. Individuals who learned to smoke RYOs overseas often returned to Japan with their new habit of smoking RYOs. RYO tobacco lets users blend their own flavours and users appreciate their flexibility.

THE ROLE AND EFFECT OF CANNABIS/MARIJUANA

DISTRIBUTION

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

  • Imperial Tobacco Group Plc maintained the leading position in smoking tobacco with a volume share of 14% in 2011. The RYO tobacco brands, Drum and Golden Virginia, account for roughly 80% of the company’s smoking tobacco volume sales and stable sales growth of both brands was observed in 2011. Imperial Tobacco Group Plc also has a presence in pipe tobacco with its Amphora brand.

NEW PRODUCT DEVELOPMENTS

  • Summary 14 Smoking Tobacco - New Product Launches

PROSPECTS

  • Over the 2011-2016 period, volume sales of RYO tobacco are expected to increase with a CAGR of 1%. The tobacco tax increase in 2010 and Japan Tobacco Inc’s supply shortage after the March 2011 earthquake led consumers to replace cigarettes with RYOs. After the full restoration of Japan Tobacco Inc’s production facilities, consumers are expected to return to cigarettes and sales volume of RYO tobacco is set to decline slightly, by 3%, in 2012. However, with the possibility of a further tobacco tax increase, market volume of RYO tobacco is expected to gradually increase from 2013 to 2016.

CATEGORY DATA

  • Table 62 Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: Volume 2006-2011
  • Table 63 Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: Value 2006-2011
  • Table 64 Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 65 Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 66 Company Shares of RYO Tobacco 2007-2011
  • Table 67 Brand Shares of RYO Tobacco 2008-2011
  • Table 68 Company Shares of Pipe Tobacco 2007-2011
  • Table 69 Brand Shares of Pipe Tobacco 2008-2011
  • Table 70 Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Distribution Format: % Analysis 2006-2011
  • Table 71 Forecast Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: Volume 2011-2016
  • Table 72 Forecast Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: Value 2011-2016
  • Table 73 Forecast Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2011-2016
  • Table 74 Forecast Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2011-2016

Segmentation

Segmentation

This market research report includes the following:

  • Tobacco
    • Cigarettes
      • High Tar Cigarettes
      • Mid Tar Cigarettes
      • Low Tar Cigarettes
      • Ultra Low Tar Cigarettes
    • Cigars
      • Cigars Excluding Cigarillos
        • Large Cigars
        • Standard Cigars
        • Small Cigars
      • Cigarillos
    • Smoking Tobacco
      • RYO Tobacco
      • Pipe Tobacco
    • Smokeless Tobacco
      • Chewing Tobacco
        • Asian-Style Chewing Tobacco
        • US-Style Chewing Tobacco
        • Other Chewing Tobacco
      • Snuff
        • Moist Snuff
          • US-Style Moist Snuff ('Dip')
            • Loose US-Style Moist Snuff
            • Portion US-Style Moist Snuff
          • Swedish-Style Snus
            • Loose Swedish-Style Snus
            • Portion Swedish-Style Snus
          • Asian Style Creamy Snuff
        • Dry Snuff
        • Hard Snuff
    • Cigarettes Including RYO Stick Equivalent
      • High Tar Cigarettes
      • Mid Tar Cigarettes
      • Low Tar Cigarettes
      • Ultra Low Tar Cigarettes
      • RYO Cigarettes

Statistics Included

Statistics Included

For each category and subcategory you will receive the following data in Excel format:

From Passport

  • Market sizes
  • Company shares
  • Brand shares
  • Distribution
  • Analysis by type
  • Cigarettes by blend
  • Cigarettes by carbon filter/non-carbon filter
  • Cigarettes by filtered/unfiltered
  • Cigarettes by length
  • Cigarettes by pack size
  • Cigarettes by pack type
  • Cigarettes by price band
  • Cigarettes by regular/slim/superslim
  • Cigarettes by standard/menthol
  • Illicit trade penetration
  • Pricing
  • Products by ingredient
  • Products by ingredient
  • Smoking population - number of adult smokers
  • Smoking prevalence - % of adult population
  • Taxation
  • Trade statistics - volume

Market size details:

  • Retail volume
  • Retail volume % growth
  • Retail volume per capita
  • Retail value retail selling price % growth
  • Retail value retail selling price local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Retail value retail selling price per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Illicit trade volume
  • Illicit trade volume % growth
  • Illicit trade volume per capita
  • Retail volume (sticks)
  • Retail volume (sticks) % growth
  • Retail volume (sticks) per capita
  • Retail plus illicit trade
  • Retail plus illicit trade % growth
  • Retail plus illicit trade per capita

Methodology

Methodology

Global insight and local knowledge

With 40 years’ experience of developed and emerging markets, Euromonitor International’s research method is built on a unique combination of specialist industry knowledge and in-country research expertise.

This approach is what enables us to achieve our goal of building a market consensus view of size, shape and trends across the full distribution universe of each category. We factor in whichever channels are relevant, from large-scale grocery to direct sellers, from discount stores to local mom-and-pop outlets.

Industry specialists

Each industry we cover is managed by an Industry Manager and team of Industry Analysts who research and report on their specialist categories all year round.

Our collaborative approach to research means that these industry teams are in constant dialogue with industry players and opinion formers. The planning of our research programmes reflects latest market trends and industry events. In completing each update project, this provides invaluable input to the testing, review and finalisation of our data.

The specialist in-house teams bring together findings from all stages of the annual research process. They work closely with in-country analysts, assess and challenge data and exercise final editorial control over the publication of new data and analysis.

Country and regional analysts

Our in-country analyst network is managed by country and regional analysts in our offices around the world. Working closely with each in-country team, the regional research management team ensures that all country researchers are well schooled in best practices, from the information collected in store checks, to the dialogue we build in trade surveys. Our country analysts ensure that national reports explain the data trends and provide clear insights into the local market’s dynamics.

In-country research network

To deliver fresh insights every year in countries all around the world, we believe the strongest approach is to use analysts on the ground. They bring fluency in local language, physical proximity to the best sources, an ability to engage directly with local industry contacts, and an awareness of how the products and services we study are advertised, sold and consumed. These are essential parts of our ability to report incisively on these markets.

Research Methodology

Our research methods

Each Euromonitor International industry report is based on a core set of research techniques:

Desk research

With industry events, corporate activity, trends and new product introductions tracked year round by our industry team, desk research provides a starting point for the in-country research programme. Our in-country researchers will access the following sources:

  • National statistics offices governmental and official sources
  • National and international trade press
  • National and international trade associations
  • Industry study groups and other semi-official sources
  • Company financials and annual reports
  • Broker reports
  • Online databases
  • The financial, business and mainstream press

Accessing sources is only the first step. The ability to interpret and reconcile often conflicting information across multiple sources is a key aspect of the added value we provide.

Store checks

Store checks are an integral part of our methods for product industries. Carried out on the ground across a relevant mix of channels, the information gained provides first-hand insights into the products we are researching, specifically:

  • Place: We track products in all relevant channels, selective and mass, store and non-store
  • Product: What are innovations in products, pack sizes and formats?
  • Price: What are brand price variations across channels, how do private label’s prices compare to those of branded goods?
  • Promotion: What are marketing and merchandising trends, offers, discounts and tie-ins?

Findings are cross-referenced with brand share data analysis. The results, combined with the findings of desk research, provide a strong basis for identifying key areas of questioning to take forward into our trade survey.

Trade survey

Interaction with global players at corporate HQ and regional levels is complemented by unique local data and insights from our in-country trade surveys around the world. Through the high profile of the Euromonitor International brand, we are able to talk directly to a wide range of sources and therefore inform our analysis with the knowledge and opinions of the leading operators in the market.

Trade surveys allow us to:

  • Fill gaps in available published data per company
  • Generate a consensus view of the size, structure and strategic direction of the category
  • Access year-in-progress data where published sources are out of date
  • Evaluate the experts’ views on current trends and market developments

In building our composite industry view, we engage with a variety of personnel in key players at all points of the supply chain: materials suppliers, manufacturers, distributors, retailers and service operators. We also interview desk research sources: industry associations; study groups; and third party observers from the trade and financial press.

Our objective is to engage in conversation with trade sources in which we exchange ideas and views on the industry, sharing our work-in-progress findings on supply/demand dynamics and potential. This dialogue enhances both parties’ understanding of the local market. The scope and reach of our trade survey also serves to eliminate bias (intentional and unintentional) from any single source.

Company analysis

At a global level, our company research combines our mix of industry interaction and use of secondary sources such as annual accounts, broker reports, financial press and databases. From a data perspective, the aim is to build “top-down” estimates of major players’ total global and regional sales.

At a country level, in line with local reporting requirements, we access annual accounts, national-specific company databases and local company websites. These are all invaluable sources as we build a view of each domestic player’s size and position within very specific categories of the industry.

Forecasts

Data projections and future performance analysis are key elements of Euromonitor International’s market intelligence. Working with historic trends of 15 years or more, a key aspect of our trade survey is to engage industry insider views of the next five years. Will volumes maintain their historic trend? Will price increases or falls of recent years continue, accelerate or slow down? Will increasing demand for one product cannibalise sales of another?

Forecasts represent many of the essential conclusions we have reached about the current state of the market, how it works and how it behaves under different macro and micro conditions. Our written analysis will state the assumptions and the trade opinion behind whether our predictions are optimistic or pessimistic, so that clients can use our statistical forecasts with confidence.

Data validation

All data is subjected to an exhaustive review process, at country, regional and global levels.

The interpretation and review of sources and data inputs forms a central part of the collaboration between industry teams and country researchers. Numbers are delivered to regional and global offices with an audit trail of sources and calculations to allow for a thorough evaluation of data sense and integrity.

Upon completion of the country review phase, data is then reviewed on a comparative basis at regional and then at a global level. Comparative checks are carried out on per capita consumption and spending levels, growth rates, patterns of category and subcategory breakdowns and distribution of sales by channel. Top-down estimates are reviewed against bottom-up regional and global market and company sales totals.

Where marked differences are seen between proximate country markets or ones at similar developmental levels, supplementary research is conducted in the relevant countries to confirm and/or amend those findings. This process ensures international comparability across the database, that consistent category and subcategory definitions have been used and that all data has been correctly tested. We make sure that possible discrepancies between different published sources have been reconciled and that our interpretation of opinion and expectation from each country’s trade sources has been applied to form a coherent international pattern.

Market analysis

Another integral part of all our research programmes is that all Euromonitor International data is accompanied by clear written analysis. From a research perspective, this explains and substantiates data findings. From a client perspective, this offers unique insights into local consumption trends, routes to market, brand preferences, channel dynamics and future trends.

Our country level analysis also provides invaluable input into the ability of our central industry specialist teams to marry local insights with strategic conclusions on the direction of the market regionally and globally.

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