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Country Report

Tobacco in Japan

Dec 2011

Price: US$1,900

About this Report

About this Report

Samples (FAQs about samples):

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Overview

Discover the latest market trends and uncover sources of future market growth for the Tobacco industry in Japan with research from Euromonitor's team of in-country analysts.

Find hidden opportunities in the most current research data available, understand competitive threats with our detailed market analysis, and plan your corporate strategy with our expert qualitative analysis and growth projections.

If you're in the Tobacco industry in Japan, our research will save you time and money while empowering you to make informed, profitable decisions.

When you purchase this report, you also get the data and the content from these category reports in Japan for free:

The Tobacco in Japan market research report includes:

  • Analysis of key supply-side and demand trends
  • Detailed segmentation of international and local products
  • Historic volumes and values, company and brand market shares
  • Five year forecasts of market trends and market growth
  • Production, imports by origin, exports by destination
  • Robust and transparent market research methodology, conducted in-country

Our market research reports answer questions such as:

  • What is the market size of Tobacco in Japan?
  • What are the major brands in Japan?
  • Which sector of the tobacco products market is the largest by value sales in Japan?
  • Which sector of the tobacco products market has been growing the fastest, by volume and value, in Japan?
  • Which sector is the most heavily taxed in Japan?
  • Which companies dominate in the total tobacco market in Japan in terms of market share?
  • What is the distribution channel split for the tobacco products market in Japan?

Why buy this report?

  • Gain competitive intelligence about market leaders
  • Track key industry trends, opportunities and threats
  • Inform your marketing, brand, strategy and market development, sales and supply functions

This industry report originates from Passport, our Tobacco market research database.

Sample Analysis

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Demographics, health concerns and fashion discourage smoking

In addition to being the fastest ageing society in the world, Japan’s population is shrinking, and this drove down tobacco sales in 2010. Also, health concerns due to mandatory health checks led to contracting sales of tobacco. Smoking is also losing its fashionable image amongst younger consumers, and thus it is very difficult to cultivate new smokers. All these negative factors, combined with the tobacco tax increase and economic instability, makes it difficult for tobacco companies to appeal to consumers.

Substantial increase in tobacco tax leads to a surge in demand

The biggest news in the tobacco market in 2010 was undoubtedly the increase in the tobacco tax, implemented in October. This was the highest increase in the tobacco tax in history. For example, the price of the best-selling Mild Seven brand from Japan Tobacco increased from ¥300/pack to ¥410/pack; a net increase of 37% per pack of 20 cigarettes. This caused a surge in demand for cigarettes prior to the tax increase. However, there was a downwards rebound, casing a dip in sales for the rest of the year. As a result, this surge in demand did not reverse the contracting sales of cigarettes overall.

Tobacco tax increase affects consumers' preferences

The largest ever tobacco tax increase resulted in changing preferences for products. In terms of cigarettes, consumers shifted to longer variants such as 100s as in most cases, as the longer variant is the same price as the regular/king size length, as taxation is based on a per stick basis. In terms of cigars, consumers who wanted to maintain the same quality shifted to shorter variants. In smoking tobacco an increase in RYO tobacco was noted, although absolute sales of such products are still very small. The interest of the younger generation of smokers rose in kiseru – a traditional Japanese pipe, as this requires less tobacco, resulting in cutting costs.

Public areas become even tougher for smokers

Towards the end of the review period, public areas became more and more restrictive for smokers. Many local government bodies enacted regulations banning smoking whilst on the streets. In many cases there are no financial penalties and warnings. However, the regulations seem to appeal to smokers’ morals, and smoking whilst on the streets is hardly seen these days. This may be because the restrictions are not only trying to address second-hand smoke, but also the physical injuries related to smoking, such as lighted cigarettes hitting children’s faces, or burning people’s clothing. Local governments are also setting up smoking booths at street corners for smokers to have their fix.

Continuing decline expected over the forecast period

A tough situation for tobacco consumption is expected over the forecast period. Smoking is becoming an increasingly antisocial activity, and no longer appeals to the younger generation in terms of fashion. As a result, it is becoming more difficult to cultivate new smokers. In addition, people are becoming more health-conscious due to mandatory health checks, as well as the ageing population driving people to quit. The higher tobacco tax is not helping the situation either, with more people thinking that smoking is becoming too expensive.

Table of Contents

Table of Contents

Tobacco in Japan - Industry Overview

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Demographics, health concerns and fashion discourage smoking

Substantial increase in tobacco tax leads to a surge in demand

Tobacco tax increase affects consumers' preferences

Public areas become even tougher for smokers

Continuing decline expected over the forecast period

OPERATING ENVIRONMENT

Legislative overview/ FCTC ratification

  • Summary 1 Legislation Summary at a Glance

Country-specific legislation:

Minimum legal smoking age

Smoking prevalence

  • Table 1 Smoking Prevalence in Adult Population 2005-2010
  • Table 2 Number of Smokers by Gender 2005-2010

Tar levels

Health warnings

Advertising and sponsorship

Point-of-sale display bans

Smoking in public places

Low Ignition Propensity (LIP) regulation

Electronic cigarettes

Litigation

Death by Cause

  • Table 3 Death by Cause 2005-2010

TAXATION AND PRICING

Duty paid packet marks

Taxation rates

  • Table 4 Taxation and Duty Levies

Average cigarette pack price breakdown

  • Table 5 Average Cigarette Pack Price Breakdown: Brand Examples

PRODUCTION/IMPORTS/EXPORTS

  • Table 6 Trade Statistics – Cigarettes 2006-2010
  • Table 7 Production/Imports/Exports 2005-2010

Illicit trade in cigarettes

MARKET INDICATORS

  • Table 8 Illicit Trade Estimate of Cigarettes by Volume 2005-2010

MARKET DATA

  • Table 9 Sales of Tobacco by Category: Volume 2005-2010
  • Table 10 Sales of Tobacco by Category: Value 2005-2010
  • Table 11 Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 12 Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 13 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: Volume 2010-2015
  • Table 14 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: Value 2010-2015
  • Table 15 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2010-2015
  • Table 16 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2010-2015

DEFINITIONS

  • Summary 2 Research Sources

Tobacco in Japan - Company Profiles

British American Tobacco Japan Ltd in Tobacco (Japan)

STRATEGIC DIRECTION

KEY FACTS

COMPANY BACKGROUND

PRODUCTION

COMPETITIVE POSITIONING

  • Summary 4 British American Tobacco Japan Ltd: Competitive Position 2010

Japan Tobacco Inc in Tobacco (Japan)

STRATEGIC DIRECTION

KEY FACTS

COMPANY BACKGROUND

PRODUCTION

COMPETITIVE POSITIONING

  • Summary 7 Japan Tobacco Inc: Competitive Position 2010

Philip Morris Japan KK in Tobacco (Japan)

STRATEGIC DIRECTION

KEY FACTS

COMPANY BACKGROUND

PRODUCTION

COMPETITIVE POSITIONING

  • Summary 9 Phillip Morris Japan KK: Competitive Position 2010

Cigarettes in Japan - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • In October 2010, the largest tobacco tax increase in history was implemented by the Japanese government, resulting in cigarette prices increasing by more than 35% per pack although average increase of 8% per stick in current terms in 2010. This resulted in a decline in volume sales of cigarettes of 7% to reach 219 billion sticks. Prior to the tax increase there was a last minute surge in demand, but this resulted in a downwards rebound in sales over the rest of 2010. In general, other factors which contributed to the downtrends trend at the end of the review period were the significant rise in consumer health-consciousness and more restrictions on smoking areas.

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

  • There are three main large players in Japan: Japan Tobacco, Philip Morris Japan and British American Tobacco Japan, and together they held an 92% volume share. Japan Tobacco was the leading player with a 64% volume share. However, it is losing share to the two multinationals. One of the reasons for this is the increasing variants of menthol flavoured products which are offered by the multinational companies, such as Kent Boost Menthol 1 and Marlboro Ice Blast.

NEW PRODUCT DEVELOPMENTS

  • Summary 10 Cigarettes - New Product Launches

DISTRIBUTION

PROSPECTS

  • Sales of cigarettes are expected to decline over the forecast period, with a negative volume CAGR of 8%, which is a stronger pace of decline than seen in the review period. 2011 is expected to be hit the hardest due to the heavy increase in tobacco tax towards the end of 2010, with a volume decline of 25% expected. Another reason for the faster decline is continuing health-consciousness amongst consumers, as well as the ageing demographic. Further regulations on smoking can be expected, and this will also be a negative factor for cigarette sales.

SECTOR BACKGROUND

Cigarettes: Price bands

  • Summary 11 Cigarette Price Band Definitions

Cigarettes: Menthol/standard

Cigarettes: Filtered/unfiltered

Cigarettes: Carbon/standard filter

Cigarettes: Filter length

Cigarettes: Slims/superslims vs regular

Cigarettes: Pack size

Cigarettes: Pack type

CATEGORY DATA

  • Table 17 Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: Volume 2005-2010
  • Table 18 Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: Value 2005-2010
  • Table 19 Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: % Volume Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 20 Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: % Value Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 21 Sales of Cigarettes by Price Band: % Volume Breakdown 2005-2010
  • Table 22 Sales of Cigarettes by Standard/Menthol: % Volume Breakdown 2005-2010
  • Table 23 Sales of Cigarettes by Tobacco Type: % Volume Breakdown 2005-2010
  • Table 24 Sales of Cigarettes by Filter Vs Non-filter: % Volume Breakdown 2005-2010
  • Table 25 Sales of Filter Cigarettes by Carbon Vs Non-carbon: % Volume Breakdown 2005-2010
  • Table 26 Sales of Cigarettes by Length: % Volume Breakdown 2005-2010
  • Table 27 Sales of Cigarettes by Regular/Slim: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2010
  • Table 28 Sales of Cigarettes by Pack Size: % Volume Breakdown 2005-2010
  • Table 29 Sales of Cigarettes by Pack Type: % Volume Breakdown 2005-2010
  • Table 30 Cigarettes Company Shares 2006-2010
  • Table 31 Cigarettes Brand Shares 2007-2010
  • Table 32 Sales of Cigarettes by Distribution Format: % Analysis 2005-2010
  • Table 33 Cigarettes: Production, Imports and Exports: Total Volume 2005-2010
  • Table 34 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: Volume 2010-2015
  • Table 35 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: Value 2010-2015
  • Table 36 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: % Volume Growth 2010-2015
  • Table 37 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: % Value Growth 2010-2015
  • Table 38 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Price Band: % Volume Breakdown 2010-2015
  • Table 39 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Standard/Menthol: % Volume Breakdown 2010-2015
  • Table 40 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tobacco Type: % Volume Breakdown 2010-2015
  • Table 41 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Filter Vs Non-filter: % Volume Breakdown 2010-2015
  • Table 42 Forecast Sales of Filter Cigarettes by Carbon Vs Non-carbon: % Volume Breakdown 2010-2015
  • Table 43 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Length: % Volume Breakdown 2010-2015
  • Table 44 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Regular/Slim: % Volume Breakdown 2010-2015
  • Table 45 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Pack Size: % Volume Breakdown 2010-2015
  • Table 46 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Pack Type: % Volume Breakdown 2010-2015

Cigars in Japan - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • Traditionally, people in Japan have never been big consumers of cigars. Cigars continued to show a volume contraction of 1% in 2010. This decline was mainly due to the ageing population, leading to a shrinking number of smokers. The sluggish economy also prevented the consumption of high-end cigars. However, because cigar smoking is a hobby rather similar to wine, sales were impacted less by the latest tobacco tax increase in October 2010 than cigarettes.

HAND-MADE VERSUS MACHINE-MANUFACTURED SPLITS

  • Table 47 Sales of Cigars by Handmade vs Machine-manufactured 2006-2010

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

  • There are no representative offices of any cigar manufacturers present in Japan, and distribution is dependent on the local distributors which import these products. The two largest distributors of cigars in Japan are Japan Tobacco Imex with 40% volume share and British American Tobacco Japan with 25% in 2010.

NEW PRODUCT DEVELOPMENTS

  • Summary 12 Cigars and Cigarillos - New Product Launches

DISTRIBUTION

PROSPECTS

  • Cigars and cigarillos is expected to show a decline over the forecast period, with a negative volume CAGR of 1%. This is the opposite of the review period performance, which was fuelled mainly by high-income consumers in industries such as banking, along with the expatriate community evident until the economic crisis in 2008. However, the contraction rate for cigars and cigarillos is much slower than that of cigarettes, as the denominator is much smaller. Furthermore, the nature of cigar smoking is rather more a hobby, unlike cigarette smoking, and thus is likely to be much less impacted by issues such as health concerns.

CATEGORY DATA

  • Table 48 Sales of Cigars by Category: Volume 2005-2010
  • Table 49 Sales of Cigars by Category: Value 2005-2010
  • Table 50 Sales of Cigars by Category: % Volume Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 51 Sales of Cigars by Category: % Value Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 52 Sales of Cigars by Handmade vs Machine Manufactured: % Volume Breakdown 2005-2010
  • Table 53 Company Shares of Cigars Excluding Cigarillos 2006-2010
  • Table 54 Brand Shares of Cigars Excluding Cigarillos 2007-2010
  • Table 55 Company Shares of Cigarillos 2006-2010
  • Table 56 Brand Shares of Cigarillos 2007-2010
  • Table 57 Sales of Cigars by Distribution Format: % Analysis 2005-2010
  • Table 58 Forecast Sales of Cigars by Category: Volume 2010-2015
  • Table 59 Forecast Sales of Cigars by Category: Value 2010-2015
  • Table 60 Forecast Sales of Cigars by Category: % Volume Growth 2010-2015
  • Table 61 Forecast Sales of Cigars by Category: % Value Growth 2010-2015

Smokeless Tobacco in Japan - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • There is no strong tradition of consumption of smokeless tobacco in Japan, either in chewing, snuff or pouch (SNU) format. Smokeless tobacco, although not illegal, has never really caught on in Japan, largely for cultural reasons. Most Japanese consumers consider chewing or sniffing tobacco to be uncouth and socially unacceptable. This is supported by the popularity of NRT patches, which have been well accepted in comparison with NRT gum.

Smoking Tobacco in Japan - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • The increase in the tobacco tax resulted in some people, especially the younger generation, being interested in RYO tobacco and kiseru pipes – slim traditional Japanese pipes with a small cup to fill with tobacco. However, these remained niche segments, and were not sufficient to reverse the downwards trend in smoking tobacco, which showed a volume decline of 4% to reach 42 tonnes in 2010, mainly due to the ageing population. Pipe smoking continued to be a hobby, as it involves smoking equipment, which can be quite expensive. Hence this remained an area mainly supported by real tobacco lovers.

THE ROLE AND EFFECT OF CANNABIS/MARIJUANA

DISTRIBUTION

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

  • Imperial Tobacco Group was the largest player in smoking tobacco in 2010, with an 11% volume share. The company has a strong position in RYO tobacco, holding a 75% volume share with the two leading brands Drum and Golden Virginia. The company also has a presence in pipe tobacco with a 3% volume share with its Amphora brand.

NEW PRODUCT DEVELOPMENTS

  • Summary 13 Smoking Tobacco - New Product Launches

PROSPECTS

  • Smoking tobacco is expected to contract over the forecast period, with a negative volume CAGR of 4%. The decline is expected to be due to the ageing society, health consciousness and the decline in the smoking population. The rate of decline is expected to be faster than the negative volume CAGR of 1% in the review period. Although pipe tobacco is likely to be the main contributor to this decline, RYO tobacco, on the contrary, is expected to show positive growth over the forecast period, with a volume CAGR of 4%. This will mainly be driven by demand for economy products due to the increase in the tobacco tax in 2010.

CATEGORY DATA

  • Table 62 Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: Volume 2005-2010
  • Table 63 Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: Value 2005-2010
  • Table 64 Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 65 Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 66 Company Shares of RYO Tobacco 2006-2010
  • Table 67 Brand Shares of RYO Tobacco 2007-2010
  • Table 68 Company Shares of Pipe Tobacco 2006-2010
  • Table 69 Brand Shares of Pipe Tobacco 2007-2010
  • Table 70 Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Distribution Format: % Analysis 2005-2010
  • Table 71 Forecast Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: Volume 2010-2015
  • Table 72 Forecast Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: Value 2010-2015
  • Table 73 Forecast Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2010-2015
  • Table 74 Forecast Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2010-2015

Segmentation

Segmentation

This market research report includes the following:

  • Tobacco
    • Cigarettes
      • High Tar Cigarettes
      • Mid Tar Cigarettes
      • Low Tar Cigarettes
      • Ultra Low Tar Cigarettes
    • Cigars
      • Cigars Excluding Cigarillos
        • Large Cigars
        • Standard Cigars
        • Small Cigars
      • Cigarillos
    • Smoking Tobacco
      • RYO Tobacco
      • Pipe Tobacco
    • Smokeless Tobacco
      • Chewing Tobacco
        • Asian-Style Chewing Tobacco
        • US-Style Chewing Tobacco
        • Other Chewing Tobacco
      • Snuff
        • Moist Snuff
          • US-Style Moist Snuff ('Dip')
            • Loose US-Style Moist Snuff
            • Portion US-Style Moist Snuff
          • Swedish-Style Snus
            • Loose Swedish-Style Snus
            • Portion Swedish-Style Snus
          • Asian Style Creamy Snuff
        • Dry Snuff
        • Hard Snuff
    • Cigarettes Including RYO Stick Equivalent
      • High Tar Cigarettes
      • Mid Tar Cigarettes
      • Low Tar Cigarettes
      • Ultra Low Tar Cigarettes
      • RYO Cigarettes

Statistics Included

Statistics Included

For each category and subcategory you will receive the following data in Excel format:

From Passport

  • Market sizes
  • Company shares
  • Brand shares
  • Distribution
  • Analysis by type
  • Cigarettes by blend
  • Cigarettes by carbon filter/non-carbon filter
  • Cigarettes by filtered/unfiltered
  • Cigarettes by length
  • Cigarettes by pack size
  • Cigarettes by pack type
  • Cigarettes by price band
  • Cigarettes by regular/slim
  • Cigarettes by standard/menthol
  • Illicit trade penetration
  • Pricing
  • Products by ingredient
  • Products by ingredient
  • Smoking population - number of adult smokers
  • Smoking prevalence - % of adult population
  • Taxation
  • Trade statistics - volume

Market size details:

  • Retail volume
  • Retail volume % growth
  • Retail volume per capita
  • Retail value retail selling price % growth
  • Retail value retail selling price local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Retail value retail selling price per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Retail value retail selling price real (constant 2008) prices % growth
  • Retail value retail selling price real (constant 2008) prices local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Retail value retail selling price real (constant 2008) prices per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Illicit trade volume
  • Illicit trade volume % growth
  • Illicit trade volume per capita
  • Retail volume (sticks)
  • Retail volume (sticks) % growth
  • Retail volume (sticks) per capita
  • Retail value retail selling price nominal (current) prices % growth
  • Retail value retail selling price nominal (current) prices local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Retail value retail selling price nominal (current) prices per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Retail plus illicit trade
  • Retail plus illicit trade % growth
  • Retail plus illicit trade per capita

Methodology

Methodology

Global insight and local knowledge

With 40 years’ experience of developed and emerging markets, Euromonitor International’s research method is built on a unique combination of specialist industry knowledge and in-country research expertise.

This approach is what enables us to achieve our goal of building a market consensus view of size, shape and trends across the full distribution universe of each category. We factor in whichever channels are relevant, from large-scale grocery to direct sellers, from discount stores to local mom-and-pop outlets.

Industry specialists

Each industry we cover is managed by an Industry Manager and team of Industry Analysts who research and report on their specialist categories all year round.

Our collaborative approach to research means that these industry teams are in constant dialogue with industry players and opinion formers. The planning of our research programmes reflects latest market trends and industry events. In completing each update project, this provides invaluable input to the testing, review and finalisation of our data.

The specialist in-house teams bring together findings from all stages of the annual research process. They work closely with in-country analysts, assess and challenge data and exercise final editorial control over the publication of new data and analysis.

Country and regional analysts

Our in-country analyst network is managed by country and regional analysts in our offices around the world. Working closely with each in-country team, the regional research management team ensures that all country researchers are well schooled in best practices, from the information collected in store checks, to the dialogue we build in trade surveys. Our country analysts ensure that national reports explain the data trends and provide clear insights into the local market’s dynamics.

In-country research network

To deliver fresh insights every year in countries all around the world, we believe the strongest approach is to use analysts on the ground. They bring fluency in local language, physical proximity to the best sources, an ability to engage directly with local industry contacts, and an awareness of how the products and services we study are advertised, sold and consumed. These are essential parts of our ability to report incisively on these markets.

Research Methodology

Our research methods

Each Euromonitor International industry report is based on a core set of research techniques:

Desk research

With industry events, corporate activity, trends and new product introductions tracked year round by our industry team, desk research provides a starting point for the in-country research programme. Our in-country researchers will access the following sources:

  • National statistics offices governmental and official sources
  • National and international trade press
  • National and international trade associations
  • Industry study groups and other semi-official sources
  • Company financials and annual reports
  • Broker reports
  • Online databases
  • The financial, business and mainstream press

Accessing sources is only the first step. The ability to interpret and reconcile often conflicting information across multiple sources is a key aspect of the added value we provide.

Store checks

Store checks are an integral part of our methods for product industries. Carried out on the ground across a relevant mix of channels, the information gained provides first-hand insights into the products we are researching, specifically:

  • Place: We track products in all relevant channels, selective and mass, store and non-store
  • Product: What are innovations in products, pack sizes and formats?
  • Price: What are brand price variations across channels, how do private label’s prices compare to those of branded goods?
  • Promotion: What are marketing and merchandising trends, offers, discounts and tie-ins?

Findings are cross-referenced with brand share data analysis. The results, combined with the findings of desk research, provide a strong basis for identifying key areas of questioning to take forward into our trade survey.

Trade survey

Interaction with global players at corporate HQ and regional levels is complemented by unique local data and insights from our in-country trade surveys around the world. Through the high profile of the Euromonitor International brand, we are able to talk directly to a wide range of sources and therefore inform our analysis with the knowledge and opinions of the leading operators in the market.

Trade surveys allow us to:

  • Fill gaps in available published data per company
  • Generate a consensus view of the size, structure and strategic direction of the category
  • Access year-in-progress data where published sources are out of date
  • Evaluate the experts’ views on current trends and market developments

In building our composite industry view, we engage with a variety of personnel in key players at all points of the supply chain: materials suppliers, manufacturers, distributors, retailers and service operators. We also interview desk research sources: industry associations; study groups; and third party observers from the trade and financial press.

Our objective is to engage in conversation with trade sources in which we exchange ideas and views on the industry, sharing our work-in-progress findings on supply/demand dynamics and potential. This dialogue enhances both parties’ understanding of the local market. The scope and reach of our trade survey also serves to eliminate bias (intentional and unintentional) from any single source.

Company analysis

At a global level, our company research combines our mix of industry interaction and use of secondary sources such as annual accounts, broker reports, financial press and databases. From a data perspective, the aim is to build “top-down” estimates of major players’ total global and regional sales.

At a country level, in line with local reporting requirements, we access annual accounts, national-specific company databases and local company websites. These are all invaluable sources as we build a view of each domestic player’s size and position within very specific categories of the industry.

Forecasts

Data projections and future performance analysis are key elements of Euromonitor International’s market intelligence. Working with historic trends of 15 years or more, a key aspect of our trade survey is to engage industry insider views of the next five years. Will volumes maintain their historic trend? Will price increases or falls of recent years continue, accelerate or slow down? Will increasing demand for one product cannibalise sales of another?

Forecasts represent many of the essential conclusions we have reached about the current state of the market, how it works and how it behaves under different macro and micro conditions. Our written analysis will state the assumptions and the trade opinion behind whether our predictions are optimistic or pessimistic, so that clients can use our statistical forecasts with confidence.

Data validation

All data is subjected to an exhaustive review process, at country, regional and global levels.

The interpretation and review of sources and data inputs forms a central part of the collaboration between industry teams and country researchers. Numbers are delivered to regional and global offices with an audit trail of sources and calculations to allow for a thorough evaluation of data sense and integrity.

Upon completion of the country review phase, data is then reviewed on a comparative basis at regional and then at a global level. Comparative checks are carried out on per capita consumption and spending levels, growth rates, patterns of category and subcategory breakdowns and distribution of sales by channel. Top-down estimates are reviewed against bottom-up regional and global market and company sales totals.

Where marked differences are seen between proximate country markets or ones at similar developmental levels, supplementary research is conducted in the relevant countries to confirm and/or amend those findings. This process ensures international comparability across the database, that consistent category and subcategory definitions have been used and that all data has been correctly tested. We make sure that possible discrepancies between different published sources have been reconciled and that our interpretation of opinion and expectation from each country’s trade sources has been applied to form a coherent international pattern.

Market analysis

Another integral part of all our research programmes is that all Euromonitor International data is accompanied by clear written analysis. From a research perspective, this explains and substantiates data findings. From a client perspective, this offers unique insights into local consumption trends, routes to market, brand preferences, channel dynamics and future trends.

Our country level analysis also provides invaluable input into the ability of our central industry specialist teams to marry local insights with strategic conclusions on the direction of the market regionally and globally.

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