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Country Report

Tobacco in Kenya

Nov 2012

Price: US$1,900

About this Report

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Increased taxation fails to discourage consumers from smoking

Increased taxation on tobacco products has led to substantial growth in illicit trade. Illicit trade caused significant loss in revenue for the government, who is now increasing its efforts to reduce the problem.

Kenyan government continues to believe in the Tobacco Control Act

The Kenyan government, through the Ministry of Health, adopted an increasingly strong anti-tobacco stance towards the end of the review period (2010-2012). The government established the National Tobacco Free Initiative Committee (NTFIC) in 2001, which focuses on tobacco control in the country. The government also runs the National Agency for the Campaign Against Drug Abuse (NACADA), which is at the forefront of the campaign against tobacco consumption. These campaigns have been consistent in the print and electronic media, making the general public more aware of the side effects of smoking, hence deterring to an extent the level of smoking in public.

One domestic and one international player lead the industry

Multinational British American Tobacco Kenya Ltd dominated cigarettes sales in 2011 followed by domestic player Mastermind Tobacco (Kenya). These players benefit from strong brands and wide distribution networks. They also account for a strong share of national GDP and are major employers in the country. Consequently, whilst the government is keen to reduce smoking prevalence, it is also keen to ensure that these players continue to produce tobacco products within Kenya.

Leading distribution channels

Newsagent-tobacconists/kiosks remained the leading distribution channel for cigarettes in 2011 followed by supermarkets. Newsagent-tobacconists/kiosks offer a wide range of brands at all price points while supermarkets tend to focus on mid-priced brands. The newsagent-tobacconists/kiosks channel is more developed due to better coverage in both rural and urban areas in Kenya while supermarkets are often found only in large urban areas.

Tobacco sales expected to remain flat

  • The moderate performance of tobacco products, particularly of cigarettes, will be due to the fact that manufacturers will not be able to curb price increases caused by higher input prices. In addition, due to financial constraints, many consumers will continue to buy illicit products.


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Overview

Discover the latest market trends and uncover sources of future market growth for the Tobacco industry in Kenya with research from Euromonitor's team of in-country analysts.

Find hidden opportunities in the most current research data available, understand competitive threats with our detailed market analysis, and plan your corporate strategy with our expert qualitative analysis and growth projections.

If you're in the Tobacco industry in Kenya, our research will save you time and money while empowering you to make informed, profitable decisions.

When you purchase this report, you also get the data and the content from these category reports in Kenya for free:

The Tobacco in Kenya market research report includes:

  • Analysis of key supply-side and demand trends
  • Detailed segmentation of international and local products
  • Historic volumes and values, company and brand market shares
  • Five year forecasts of market trends and market growth
  • Production, imports by origin, exports by destination
  • Robust and transparent market research methodology, conducted in-country

Our market research reports answer questions such as:

  • What is the market size of Tobacco in Kenya?
  • What are the major brands in Kenya?
  • Which sector of the tobacco products market is the largest by value sales in Kenya?
  • Which sector of the tobacco products market has been growing the fastest, by volume and value, in Kenya?
  • Which sector is the most heavily taxed in Kenya?
  • Which companies dominate in the total tobacco market in Kenya in terms of market share?
  • What is the distribution channel split for the tobacco products market in Kenya?

Why buy this report?

  • Gain competitive intelligence about market leaders
  • Track key industry trends, opportunities and threats
  • Inform your marketing, brand, strategy and market development, sales and supply functions

This industry report originates from Passport, our Tobacco market research database.

Table of Contents

Table of Contents

Tobacco in Kenya - Industry Overview

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Increased taxation fails to discourage consumers from smoking

Kenyan government continues to believe in the Tobacco Control Act

One domestic and one international player lead the industry

Leading distribution channels

Tobacco sales expected to remain flat

OPERATING ENVIRONMENT

Legislative overview/ FCTC ratification

  • Summary 1 Legislation Summary at a Glance

Country-specific legislation:

Minimum legal smoking age

Smoking prevalence

  • Table 1 Smoking Prevalence in Adult Population 2006-2011
  • Table 2 Number of Smokers by Gender 2006-2011

Tar levels

Health warnings

Advertising & Sponsorship

Smoking in public places

Low ignition propensity (LIP) regulation

Electronic cigarettes

Litigation

Death by cause

  • Table 3 Death by Cause 2010-2011

TAXATION AND PRICING

Duty paid packet marks

Taxation rates

  • Summary 2 Taxation and Duty Levies 2008-2012

Average cigarette pack price breakdown

  • Table 4 Average Cigarette Pack Price Breakdown: Brand Examples

PRODUCTION/IMPORTS/EXPORTS

  • Table 5 Domestic exports (Principal commodities to the common market for Eastern and Southern Africa)
  • Table 6 Trade Statistics – Cigarettes 2007-2011

Illicit trade in cigarettes

MARKET INDICATORS

  • Table 7 Illicit Trade Estimate of Cigarettes by Volume 2006-2011

MARKET DATA

  • Table 8 Sales of Tobacco by Category: Volume 2006-2011
  • Table 9 Sales of Tobacco by Category: Value 2006-2011
  • Table 10 Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 11 Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 12 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: Volume 2011-2016
  • Table 13 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: Value 2011-2016
  • Table 14 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2011-2016
  • Table 15 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2011-2016

SOURCES

  • Summary 3 Research Sources

Tobacco in Kenya - Company Profiles

British American Tobacco Kenya Ltd in Tobacco (Kenya)

STRATEGIC DIRECTION

KEY FACTS

COMPANY BACKGROUND

PRODUCTION

COMPETITIVE POSITIONING

  • Summary 6 British American Tobacco Kenya Ltd: Competitive Position 2011

Dannemann Cigarrenfabrik GmbH in Tobacco (Kenya)

STRATEGIC DIRECTION

KEY FACTS

COMPANY BACKGROUND

PRODUCTION

COMPETITIVE POSITIONING

  • Summary 8 Dannemann Cigarrenfabrik GmbH: Competitive Position 2011

Mastermind Tobacco (Kenya) Ltd in Tobacco (Kenya)

STRATEGIC DIRECTION

KEY FACTS

COMPANY BACKGROUND

PRODUCTION

COMPETITIVE POSITIONING

  • Summary 10 Mastermind Tobacco (Kenya) Ltd: Competitive Position 2011

Cigarettes in Kenya - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • British American Tobacco (BAT) and Mastermind Tobacco (Kenya), the two leading players in tobacco in the country, are both investing in expanding their distribution networks in an effort to reach most operators in both the modern and traditional retail channels. This is also probably the only way for these companies to cope with the increasing level of illicit trade.

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

  • British American Tobacco Kenya Ltd continued to dominate sales of cigarettes in 2011, accounting for a 68% retail volume share of sales. The company is particularly strong in low-tar cigarettes, in which it accounted for an 85% share in 2011, but also dominates mid-tar cigarettes with a 67% volume share. The company benefits from the strongest distribution network in Kenya and a wide range of brands, including Sportsman, Safari, Rooster, Pall Mall, Dunhill and Sweet Menthol in mid-tar cigarettes and Embassy Lights and Dunhill Lights in low-tar cigarettes. It also benefits from a strong reputation for quality and from a high degree of customer loyalty, as well as a wide range of price points, from economy brand Rooster, which was priced at KES57.00 per 20 sticks in January 2011, to premium brand Dunhill, priced at KES140 for the same pack size. The packaging of economy and premium brands also differs, with economy brands offered in soft packs and premium brands in folding cartons.

NEW PRODUCT DEVELOPMENTS

DISTRIBUTION

PROSPECTS

  • Because of an expected dramatic increase in inflation manufacturers are expected to focus particularly on standard products, which will allow them to use cheaper materials and labour in order to counterbalance the effects of inflation. Increasing the number of standard products in the marketplace, which are cheaper and more affordable for consumers, will also be the only way for manufacturers to boost sales as in Kenya advertising is prohibited.

CATEGORY BACKGROUND

Cigarettes: Price bands

  • Summary 11 Cigarette Price Band Definitions

Cigarettes: Menthol/standard

Cigarettes: Filter/non-filter

Cigarettes: Carbon/standard filter

Cigarettes: Filter length

Cigarettes: Regular vs slims vs superslims

Cigarettes: Pack size

Cigarettes: Pack type

Cigarettes: Blend

CATEGORY DATA

  • Table 16 Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: Volume 2006-2011
  • Table 17 Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: Value 2006-2011
  • Table 18 Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: % Volume Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 19 Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: % Value Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 20 Sales of Cigarettes by Price Band: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 21 Sales of Cigarettes by Standard/Menthol: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 22 Sales of Cigarettes by Tobacco Type: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 23 Sales of Cigarettes by Filter Vs Non-filter: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 24 Sales of Filter Cigarettes by Carbon Vs Non-carbon: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 25 Sales of Cigarettes by Length: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 26 Sales of Cigarettes by Regular/Slim/Superslim: % Volume Breakdown 2007-2011
  • Table 27 Sales of Cigarettes by Pack Size: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 28 Sales of Cigarettes by Pack Type: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 29 Cigarettes Company Shares 2007-2011
  • Table 30 Cigarettes Brand Shares 2008-2011
  • Table 31 Sales of Cigarettes by Distribution Format: % Analysis 2006-2011
  • Table 32 Cigarettes: Production, Imports and Exports: Total Volume 2006-2011
  • Table 33 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: Volume 2011-2016
  • Table 34 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: Value 2011-2016
  • Table 35 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: % Volume Growth 2011-2016
  • Table 36 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: % Value Growth 2011-2016
  • Table 37 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Price Band: % Volume Breakdown 2011-2016
  • Table 38 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Standard/Menthol: % Volume Breakdown 2011-2016
  • Table 39 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tobacco Type: % Volume Breakdown 2011-2016
  • Table 40 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Filter Vs Non-filter: % Volume Breakdown 2011-2016
  • Table 41 Forecast Sales of Filter Cigarettes by Carbon Vs Non-carbon: % Volume Breakdown 2011-2016
  • Table 42 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Length: % Volume Breakdown 2011-2016
  • Table 43 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Regular/Slim/Superslim: % Volume Breakdown 2011-2016
  • Table 44 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Pack Size: % Volume Breakdown 2011-2016
  • Table 45 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Pack Type: % Volume Breakdown 2011-2016

Cigars in Kenya - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • The slow growth rates experienced by the category in 2011 can be attributed to the fact that most of these products are premium and hence expensive. They are mainly found in selected outlets, particularly high-end hotels visited by tourists. The category is limited by the fact that only a few people and tourists can afford to buy these products.

HANDMADE VERSUS MACHINE-MANUFACTURED SPLITS

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

  • Cigars was led by Scandinavian Tobacco Group A/S, which also recorded the biggest increase in share.

NEW PRODUCT DEVELOPMENTS

DISTRIBUTION

PROSPECTS

  • The forecast period will see increased demand for small cigars because they are cheaper and their size more convenient compared to standard cigars and cigarillos. Manufacturers will increase their production and will try to expand their presence into other sales channels.

CATEGORY DATA

  • Table 46 Sales of Cigars by Category: Volume 2006-2011
  • Table 47 Sales of Cigars by Category: Value 2006-2011
  • Table 48 Sales of Cigars by Category: % Volume Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 49 Sales of Cigars by Category: % Value Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 50 Sales of Cigars by Handmade vs Machine-manufactured: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 51 Sales of Cigars by Handmade vs Machine-manufactured: % Value Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 52 Company Shares of Cigars Excluding Cigarillos 2007-2011
  • Table 53 Brand Shares of Cigars Excluding Cigarillos 2008-2011
  • Table 54 Company Shares of Cigarillos 2007-2011
  • Table 55 Brand Shares of Cigarillos 2008-2011
  • Table 56 Sales of Cigars by Distribution Format: % Analysis 2006-2011
  • Table 57 Forecast Sales of Cigars by Category: Volume 2011-2016
  • Table 58 Forecast Sales of Cigars by Category: Value 2011-2016
  • Table 59 Forecast Sales of Cigars by Category: % Volume Growth 2011-2016
  • Table 60 Forecast Sales of Cigars by Category: % Value Growth 2011-2016

Smokeless Tobacco in Kenya - Category Analysis

TRENDS

  • Packaged retail sales of smokeless tobacco remained insignificant in 2011, although there remains marginal snuff consumption among the older generation. There are no significant players in smokeless tobacco due to sales almost exclusively being accounted for by unpackaged and unbranded products.

Smoking Tobacco in Kenya - Category Analysis

TRENDS

  • Sales of smoking tobacco remained insignificant in 2011. There is no tradition for pipe and RYO tobacco in Kenya. The most popular tobacco products in Kenya are cigarettes, which are affordable to the majority of consumers and within reach, or cigars, which have a niche consumer base.

THE ROLE AND EFFECT OF CANNABIS/MARIJUANA

DISTRIBUTION

PROSPECTS

  • The category has very little opportunity for development over the forecast period due to lack of consumer demand in the country.

Segmentation

Segmentation

This market research report includes the following:

  • Tobacco
    • Cigarettes
      • High Tar Cigarettes
      • Mid Tar Cigarettes
      • Low Tar Cigarettes
      • Ultra Low Tar Cigarettes
    • Cigars
      • Cigars Excluding Cigarillos
        • Large Cigars
        • Standard Cigars
        • Small Cigars
      • Cigarillos
    • Smoking Tobacco
      • RYO Tobacco
      • Pipe Tobacco
    • Smokeless Tobacco
      • Chewing Tobacco
        • Asian-Style Chewing Tobacco
        • US-Style Chewing Tobacco
        • Other Chewing Tobacco
      • Snuff
        • Moist Snuff
          • US-Style Moist Snuff ('Dip')
            • Loose US-Style Moist Snuff
            • Portion US-Style Moist Snuff
          • Swedish-Style Snus
            • Loose Swedish-Style Snus
            • Portion Swedish-Style Snus
          • Asian Style Creamy Snuff
        • Dry Snuff
        • Hard Snuff
    • Cigarettes Including RYO Stick Equivalent
      • High Tar Cigarettes
      • Mid Tar Cigarettes
      • Low Tar Cigarettes
      • Ultra Low Tar Cigarettes
      • RYO Cigarettes

Statistics Included

Statistics Included

For each category and subcategory you will receive the following data in Excel format:

From Passport

  • Market sizes
  • Company shares
  • Brand shares
  • Distribution
  • Analysis by type
  • Cigarettes by blend
  • Cigarettes by carbon filter/non-carbon filter
  • Cigarettes by filtered/unfiltered
  • Cigarettes by length
  • Cigarettes by pack size
  • Cigarettes by pack type
  • Cigarettes by price band
  • Cigarettes by regular/slim/superslim
  • Cigarettes by standard/menthol
  • Illicit trade penetration
  • Pricing
  • Products by ingredient
  • Products by ingredient
  • Smoking population - number of adult smokers
  • Smoking prevalence - % of adult population
  • Taxation
  • Trade statistics - volume

Market size details:

  • Retail volume
  • Retail volume % growth
  • Retail volume per capita
  • Retail value retail selling price % growth
  • Retail value retail selling price local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Retail value retail selling price per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Illicit trade volume
  • Illicit trade volume % growth
  • Illicit trade volume per capita
  • Retail volume (sticks)
  • Retail volume (sticks) % growth
  • Retail volume (sticks) per capita
  • Retail plus illicit trade
  • Retail plus illicit trade % growth
  • Retail plus illicit trade per capita

Methodology

Methodology

Global insight and local knowledge

With 40 years’ experience of developed and emerging markets, Euromonitor International’s research method is built on a unique combination of specialist industry knowledge and in-country research expertise.

This approach is what enables us to achieve our goal of building a market consensus view of size, shape and trends across the full distribution universe of each category. We factor in whichever channels are relevant, from large-scale grocery to direct sellers, from discount stores to local mom-and-pop outlets.

Industry specialists

Each industry we cover is managed by an Industry Manager and team of Industry Analysts who research and report on their specialist categories all year round.

Our collaborative approach to research means that these industry teams are in constant dialogue with industry players and opinion formers. The planning of our research programmes reflects latest market trends and industry events. In completing each update project, this provides invaluable input to the testing, review and finalisation of our data.

The specialist in-house teams bring together findings from all stages of the annual research process. They work closely with in-country analysts, assess and challenge data and exercise final editorial control over the publication of new data and analysis.

Country and regional analysts

Our in-country analyst network is managed by country and regional analysts in our offices around the world. Working closely with each in-country team, the regional research management team ensures that all country researchers are well schooled in best practices, from the information collected in store checks, to the dialogue we build in trade surveys. Our country analysts ensure that national reports explain the data trends and provide clear insights into the local market’s dynamics.

In-country research network

To deliver fresh insights every year in countries all around the world, we believe the strongest approach is to use analysts on the ground. They bring fluency in local language, physical proximity to the best sources, an ability to engage directly with local industry contacts, and an awareness of how the products and services we study are advertised, sold and consumed. These are essential parts of our ability to report incisively on these markets.

Research Methodology

Our research methods

Each Euromonitor International industry report is based on a core set of research techniques:

Desk research

With industry events, corporate activity, trends and new product introductions tracked year round by our industry team, desk research provides a starting point for the in-country research programme. Our in-country researchers will access the following sources:

  • National statistics offices governmental and official sources
  • National and international trade press
  • National and international trade associations
  • Industry study groups and other semi-official sources
  • Company financials and annual reports
  • Broker reports
  • Online databases
  • The financial, business and mainstream press

Accessing sources is only the first step. The ability to interpret and reconcile often conflicting information across multiple sources is a key aspect of the added value we provide.

Store checks

Store checks are an integral part of our methods for product industries. Carried out on the ground across a relevant mix of channels, the information gained provides first-hand insights into the products we are researching, specifically:

  • Place: We track products in all relevant channels, selective and mass, store and non-store
  • Product: What are innovations in products, pack sizes and formats?
  • Price: What are brand price variations across channels, how do private label’s prices compare to those of branded goods?
  • Promotion: What are marketing and merchandising trends, offers, discounts and tie-ins?

Findings are cross-referenced with brand share data analysis. The results, combined with the findings of desk research, provide a strong basis for identifying key areas of questioning to take forward into our trade survey.

Trade survey

Interaction with global players at corporate HQ and regional levels is complemented by unique local data and insights from our in-country trade surveys around the world. Through the high profile of the Euromonitor International brand, we are able to talk directly to a wide range of sources and therefore inform our analysis with the knowledge and opinions of the leading operators in the market.

Trade surveys allow us to:

  • Fill gaps in available published data per company
  • Generate a consensus view of the size, structure and strategic direction of the category
  • Access year-in-progress data where published sources are out of date
  • Evaluate the experts’ views on current trends and market developments

In building our composite industry view, we engage with a variety of personnel in key players at all points of the supply chain: materials suppliers, manufacturers, distributors, retailers and service operators. We also interview desk research sources: industry associations; study groups; and third party observers from the trade and financial press.

Our objective is to engage in conversation with trade sources in which we exchange ideas and views on the industry, sharing our work-in-progress findings on supply/demand dynamics and potential. This dialogue enhances both parties’ understanding of the local market. The scope and reach of our trade survey also serves to eliminate bias (intentional and unintentional) from any single source.

Company analysis

At a global level, our company research combines our mix of industry interaction and use of secondary sources such as annual accounts, broker reports, financial press and databases. From a data perspective, the aim is to build “top-down” estimates of major players’ total global and regional sales.

At a country level, in line with local reporting requirements, we access annual accounts, national-specific company databases and local company websites. These are all invaluable sources as we build a view of each domestic player’s size and position within very specific categories of the industry.

Forecasts

Data projections and future performance analysis are key elements of Euromonitor International’s market intelligence. Working with historic trends of 15 years or more, a key aspect of our trade survey is to engage industry insider views of the next five years. Will volumes maintain their historic trend? Will price increases or falls of recent years continue, accelerate or slow down? Will increasing demand for one product cannibalise sales of another?

Forecasts represent many of the essential conclusions we have reached about the current state of the market, how it works and how it behaves under different macro and micro conditions. Our written analysis will state the assumptions and the trade opinion behind whether our predictions are optimistic or pessimistic, so that clients can use our statistical forecasts with confidence.

Data validation

All data is subjected to an exhaustive review process, at country, regional and global levels.

The interpretation and review of sources and data inputs forms a central part of the collaboration between industry teams and country researchers. Numbers are delivered to regional and global offices with an audit trail of sources and calculations to allow for a thorough evaluation of data sense and integrity.

Upon completion of the country review phase, data is then reviewed on a comparative basis at regional and then at a global level. Comparative checks are carried out on per capita consumption and spending levels, growth rates, patterns of category and subcategory breakdowns and distribution of sales by channel. Top-down estimates are reviewed against bottom-up regional and global market and company sales totals.

Where marked differences are seen between proximate country markets or ones at similar developmental levels, supplementary research is conducted in the relevant countries to confirm and/or amend those findings. This process ensures international comparability across the database, that consistent category and subcategory definitions have been used and that all data has been correctly tested. We make sure that possible discrepancies between different published sources have been reconciled and that our interpretation of opinion and expectation from each country’s trade sources has been applied to form a coherent international pattern.

Market analysis

Another integral part of all our research programmes is that all Euromonitor International data is accompanied by clear written analysis. From a research perspective, this explains and substantiates data findings. From a client perspective, this offers unique insights into local consumption trends, routes to market, brand preferences, channel dynamics and future trends.

Our country level analysis also provides invaluable input into the ability of our central industry specialist teams to marry local insights with strategic conclusions on the direction of the market regionally and globally.

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