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Country Report

Tobacco in Latvia

Oct 2012

Price: US$1,900

About this Report

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Illicit trade finally decreases

After a sharp increase in illicit cigarettes sales in Latvia during the economic crisis in 2009-2010, there were finally signs of a decline in 2011 – a development that in-turn helped to boost legal cigarettes sales. To a large extent, the decline in sales of illegal products was driven by the fact that tax increases in neighbouring Russia and Belarus made smuggling less profitable. A further sharp increase in taxes is expected in Russia and Belarus over the forecast period and illicit sales are expected to continue to decline at a rather strong pace in Latvia. This in turn will sustain cigarettes growth despite decreasing smoking prevalence and the falling population in Latvia.

Recovery of legal cigarettes sales drives demand for economy brands

In 2011, there was an improvement in the performance of mid and lower end products. The major factor behind this improvement was the decline in illicit trade. This in turn benefitted cheaper brands, which suffered the most in 2009-2010 when there was a sharp increase in illegal cigarettes sales. At the same time, this resulted in more intense competition amongst lower mid-priced and economy brands. This was a major reason for more common rebranding activities and a higher number of new product developments within these price bands.

Competition requires innovation

The recovery of mid and lower end cigarettes required major players to come up with new products that would be noticed and appreciated by consumers. As a result, in the premium price segment, cigarettes with flavoured capsules inside the filter that allow smokers to change cigarette flavour to menthol were introduced. In the mid-priced segment, cigarettes with spinning filters which allow smokers to change the intensity of flavour were introduced. In the economy segment, a new 21 stick pack size was introduced for the same price. This appeared to be an effective step to attract consumers in an area where value for money plays a major role.

Tax gap reduced to control cigarillos

The introduction of Partner cigarillos in 2010 completely changed the cigarillos landscape. At the same time, the fact that the brand is offered at half the price of the average cigarette pack showed that taxes for different tobacco products are not in balance. In 2011, the Latvian government quickly reacted to the situation and increased specific tax from LVL11 to LVL24 per 1,000 units. As a result, there was a relatively strong drop in cigarillos sales, mainly for lower end products. This amendment is also expected to result in declining sales within cigarillos over the forecast period. Another tax increase is foreseen in 2012 across all tobacco product areas – a development which should cause a more balanced reaction between different tobacco products areas.

RYO tobacco drives smoking tobacco sales

Relatively strong growth was seen within smoking tobacco in 2011 despite tax increases. However, the pipe and RYO areas recorded a rather strong difference in volume and value growth rates, with RYO tobacco recording double digit growth and pipe tobacco recording a slight decline in volume sales. This performance was a result of consumer migration from cigarettes to RYO tobacco. This trend was especially visible among younger consumers while older consumers tend to prefer cigarettes more. On the other hand, pipe tobacco is more popular among elderly smokers, who tend to be sceptical of cigarettes. As a result, this area could not benefit from the changing environment in 2011.


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Overview

Discover the latest market trends and uncover sources of future market growth for the Tobacco industry in Latvia with research from Euromonitor's team of in-country analysts.

Find hidden opportunities in the most current research data available, understand competitive threats with our detailed market analysis, and plan your corporate strategy with our expert qualitative analysis and growth projections.

If you're in the Tobacco industry in Latvia, our research will save you time and money while empowering you to make informed, profitable decisions.

When you purchase this report, you also get the data and the content from these category reports in Latvia for free:

The Tobacco in Latvia market research report includes:

  • Analysis of key supply-side and demand trends
  • Detailed segmentation of international and local products
  • Historic volumes and values, company and brand market shares
  • Five year forecasts of market trends and market growth
  • Production, imports by origin, exports by destination
  • Robust and transparent market research methodology, conducted in-country

Our market research reports answer questions such as:

  • What is the market size of Tobacco in Latvia?
  • What are the major brands in Latvia?
  • Which sector of the tobacco products market is the largest by value sales in Latvia?
  • Which sector of the tobacco products market has been growing the fastest, by volume and value, in Latvia?
  • Which sector is the most heavily taxed in Latvia?
  • Which companies dominate in the total tobacco market in Latvia in terms of market share?
  • What is the distribution channel split for the tobacco products market in Latvia?

Why buy this report?

  • Gain competitive intelligence about market leaders
  • Track key industry trends, opportunities and threats
  • Inform your marketing, brand, strategy and market development, sales and supply functions

This industry report originates from Passport, our Tobacco market research database.

Table of Contents

Table of Contents

Tobacco in Latvia - Industry Overview

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Illicit trade finally decreases

Recovery of legal cigarettes sales drives demand for economy brands

Competition requires innovation

Tax gap reduced to control cigarillos

RYO tobacco drives smoking tobacco sales

OPERATING ENVIRONMENT

Legislation

  • Summary 1 Legislation Summary at a Glance

EU directives:

Minimum legal smoking age

Smoking prevalence

  • Table 1 Smoking Prevalence in Adult Population 2006-2011
  • Table 2 Number of Smokers by Gender 2006-2011

Tar levels

Health warnings

Advertising & sponsorship

Point-of-sale display bans

Smoking in public places

Low ignition propensity (LIP) regulation

‘Reduced harm’

Electronic cigarettes

Litigation

Death by cause

  • Table 3 Death by Cause 2007-2011

TAXATION AND PRICING

Duty paid packet marks

Taxation rates

  • Table 4 Taxation and Duty Levies for cigarettes 2006-2011
  • Table 5 Taxation and Duty Levies for Cigars and Cigarillos 2006-2011
  • Table 6 Taxation and Duty Levies for Pipe Tobacco 2006-2011
  • Table 7 Taxation and Duty Levies for RYO Tobacco 2006-2011

Average cigarette pack price breakdown

  • Table 8 Average Cigarette Pack Price Breakdown: Brand Examples

PRODUCTION/IMPORTS/EXPORTS

  • Table 9 Trade Statistics – Cigarettes 2006-2010

Illicit trade in cigarettes

MARKET INDICATORS

  • Table 10 Illicit Trade Estimate of Cigarettes by Volume 2006-2011

MARKET DATA

  • Table 11 Sales of Tobacco by Category: Volume 2006-2011
  • Table 12 Sales of Tobacco by Category: Value 2006-2011
  • Table 13 Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 14 Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 15 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: Volume 2011-2016
  • Table 16 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: Value 2011-2016
  • Table 17 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2011-2016
  • Table 18 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2011-2016

SOURCES

  • Summary 2 Research Sources

Tobacco in Latvia - Company Profiles

Baltic Sales Network Sia in Tobacco (Latvia)

STRATEGIC DIRECTION

KEY FACTS

COMPANY BACKGROUND

PRODUCTION

COMPETITIVE POSITIONING

  • Summary 4 Baltic Sales Network SIA: Competitive Position 2011

British American Tobacco Latvia SIA in Tobacco (Latvia)

STRATEGIC DIRECTION

KEY FACTS

COMPANY BACKGROUND

PRODUCTION

COMPETITIVE POSITIONING

  • Summary 7 British American Tobacco Latvia SIA: Competitive Position 2011

Philip Morris Latvia SIA in Tobacco (Latvia)

STRATEGIC DIRECTION

KEY FACTS

COMPANY BACKGROUND

PRODUCTION

COMPETITIVE POSITIONING

  • Summary 10 Philip Morris Latvia SIA: Competitive Position 2011

Cigarettes in Latvia - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • Changes in illicit cigarette sales were once again a determining factor in affecting legal sales in 2011. However, unlike 2009-2010, when legal sales soared due to a spike in illicit trade, in 2011 illicit cigarettes sales started to decline, with a significant number of people returning back to legal cigarettes products. The improving economic situation and decreasing unemployment meant that many people involved in illicit trade were able to find jobs while improved consumer confidence and purchasing power fuelled expenditure on tobacco products. As these were major factors defining cigarettes sales in Latvia in 2011, declining smoking prevalence and a decreasing population only had a minor impact on cigarettes consumption.

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

  • According to the State Revenue Service, there are five major companies in the tobacco industry in Latvia. The biggest cigarettes importers and distributors in Latvia are Philip Morris Latvia, JTI Marketing & Sales (renamed Baltic Sales Network in September 2011) and BAT Latvia. These three companies accounted for almost 90% of volume sales in 2011, recording respective sales shares of 38%, 25% and 23%. Tabaks Nams Grupa and Rasta 1, which are fourth and fifth largest companies, mainly focus on cigars, cigarillos and smoking tobacco products. It should be noted that the privatisation process which was launched in tobacco in Latvia some time ago is now complete.

NEW PRODUCT DEVELOPMENTS

  • Summary 11 Cigarettes - New Product Launches

DISTRIBUTION

PROSPECTS

  • Over the forecast period, cigarettes sales in Latvia are expected to be impacted by external factors such as tax increases in Russia and Belarus, which are expected to significantly reduce illicit sales. This in turn will drive sales of legal cigarettes in Latvia. At the same time, economic conditions will gradually improve over the forecast period – a development that will help to boost official sales as less people will be willing to search for cheap illegal cigarettes.

CATEGORY BACKGROUND

Cigarettes: price bands

  • Summary 12 Cigarette Price Band Definitions

Cigarettes: menthol/standard

Flavour threads and capsule filters

Cigarettes: filter/non-filter

Cigarettes: carbon/standard filter

Cigarettes: filter length

Cigarettes: regular vs. slims vs. superslims

Cigarettes: pack size

Cigarettes: pack type

CATEGORY DATA

  • Table 19 Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: Volume 2006-2011
  • Table 20 Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: Value 2006-2011
  • Table 21 Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: % Volume Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 22 Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: % Value Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 23 Sales of Cigarettes by Price Band: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 24 Sales of Cigarettes by Standard/Menthol: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 25 Sales of Cigarettes by Tobacco Type: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 26 Sales of Cigarettes by Filter Vs Non-filter: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 27 Sales of Filter Cigarettes by Carbon Vs Non-carbon: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 28 Sales of Cigarettes by Length: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 29 Sales of Cigarettes by Regular/Slim/Superslim: % Volume Breakdown 2007-2011
  • Table 30 Sales of Cigarettes by Pack Size: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 31 Sales of Cigarettes by Pack Type: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 32 Cigarettes Company Shares 2007-2011
  • Table 33 Cigarettes Brand Shares 2008-2011
  • Table 34 Sales of Cigarettes by Distribution Format: % Analysis 2006-2011
  • Table 35 Cigarettes: Production, Imports and Exports: Total Volume 2006-2011
  • Table 36 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: Volume 2011-2016
  • Table 37 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: Value 2011-2016
  • Table 38 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: % Volume Growth 2011-2016
  • Table 39 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: % Value Growth 2011-2016
  • Table 40 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Price Band: % Volume Breakdown 2011-2016
  • Table 41 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Standard/Menthol: % Volume Breakdown 2011-2016
  • Table 42 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tobacco Type: % Volume Breakdown 2011-2016
  • Table 43 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Filter Vs Non-filter: % Volume Breakdown 2011-2016
  • Table 44 Forecast Sales of Filter Cigarettes by Carbon Vs Non-carbon: % Volume Breakdown 2011-2016
  • Table 45 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Length: % Volume Breakdown 2011-2016
  • Table 46 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Regular/Slim/Superslim: % Volume Breakdown 2011-2016
  • Table 47 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Pack Size: % Volume Breakdown 2011-2016
  • Table 48 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Pack Type: % Volume Breakdown 2011-2016

Cigars in Latvia - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • Cigars started to appear in Latvia during Soviet times when Pogar cigarette and cigars started to produce cigars during World War II. However, cigars became more available only in the 1960s when, due to the close political relationship between Cuba and the Soviet Union, major Cuban cigars such as Partagás, Belinda, Cabanas, Montecristo and Romeo y Julieta became available, albeit in only limited quantities. Cigars availability increased in the 1990s, with strong growth being observed at the start of the new millennium, when major cigar retailer Tabakas Nams Grupa started expanding its specialised tobacco product retail network. Despite the fact they have been available in Latvia for many years, cigars are perceived as luxury products by Latvian consumers.

HANDMADE VERSUS MACHINE MANUFACTURED SPLITS

  • Table 49 Sales of Cigars by Handmade vs. Machine-made: % Volume/Value Breakdown 2007-2011

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

  • Cigars excluding cigarillos continues to be dominated by Corporación Habanos, which recorded a total volume share of 60% in 2011. The company’s leadership can be attributed to the strong position of its Romeo y Julieta, Cohiba, Guantanamera, Montecristo and Partagás brands. All of these brands performed well in 2011 and were either maintained or slightly increased their sales shares, thus allowing the company to increase its sales share by one percentage point in 2011. Peterson’s Pipe Tobacco Co is the second largest cigar excluding cigarillos company in Latvia and has recorded a retail volume share of 15% since 2007.

NEW PRODUCT DEVELOPMENTS

  • Summary 13 Cigars - New Product Launches

DISTRIBUTION

PROSPECTS

  • Retail volume sales of cigars and cigarillos are set to decrease over the forecast period due to the expected decline in demand for Partner cigarillos as specific tax on cigarillos is set to be increased in 2012 to LVL26 per 1,000 units and then again in 2014 and 2016 to LVL28 and LVL30 per 1,000 units respectively – a development that will drive cigarillos prices up and reduce the price advantage of such products. However, higher quality products are expected to increase in popularity in Latvia due to the recovery following the economic crisis in 2009-2010.

CATEGORY DATA

  • Table 50 Sales of Cigars by Category: Volume 2006-2011
  • Table 51 Sales of Cigars by Category: Value 2006-2011
  • Table 52 Sales of Cigars by Category: % Volume Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 53 Sales of Cigars by Category: % Value Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 54 Sales of Cigars by Handmade vs Machine-manufactured: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 55 Sales of Cigars by Handmade vs Machine-manufactured: % Value Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 56 Company Shares of Cigars Excluding Cigarillos 2007-2011
  • Table 57 Brand Shares of Cigars Excluding Cigarillos 2008-2011
  • Table 58 Company Shares of Cigarillos 2007-2011
  • Table 59 Brand Shares of Cigarillos 2008-2011
  • Table 60 Sales of Cigars by Distribution Format: % Analysis 2006-2011
  • Table 61 Forecast Sales of Cigars by Category: Volume 2011-2016
  • Table 62 Forecast Sales of Cigars by Category: Value 2011-2016
  • Table 63 Forecast Sales of Cigars by Category: % Volume Growth 2011-2016
  • Table 64 Forecast Sales of Cigars by Category: % Value Growth 2011-2016

Smokeless Tobacco in Latvia - Category Analysis

TRENDS

  • The sale and use of all forms of smokeless tobacco is forbidden by EU law in Latvia.

Smoking Tobacco in Latvia - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • In Latvia, pipe tobacco is perceived as being a much higher quality product for dedicated smokers. The majority of consumers in this area are males aged 40 or over who tend to prefer higher quality tobacco. RYO tobacco is more popular amongst younger consumers due to increasing cigarettes prices. Despite the fact the legal smoking age in Latvia is 18 years, the majority of RYO tobacco consumers are between the age of 16 and 25. Older aged people are not used to rolling cigarettes and find the practice annoying and inconvenient.

THE ROLE AND EFFECT OF CANNABIS/MARIJUANA

DISTRIBUTION

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

  • Planta Tabak-Manufaktur Dr Manfred Obermann led smoking tobacco sales in 2011 with a retail volume share of 19%. The company’s success can be attributed to its Excellent, Planta, Holger Danske and Brebbia brands. The second leading company was Orlik Tobacco, which accounted for 12% of retail volume sales in 2011. The company owns such broadly available brands as Kir, Taste, Alsbo, Clan and WO Larsen. Both Planta Tabak-Manufaktur Dr Manfred Obermann and Orlik Tobacco offer pipe and RYO tobacco products. In addition, both companies offer a broad range of flavoured tobacco which performed relatively well in Latvia over the review period as well as in 2011.

NEW PRODUCT DEVELOPMENTS

  • Summary 14 Smoking Tobacco - New Product Launches

PROSPECTS

  • RYO tobacco will continue to lead smoking tobacco sales over the forecast period. The shift from cigarettes will continue and will be strongest during the first half of the forecast period. On the other hand, sales within pipe tobacco are expected to decline due to the fact that it is an obsolete area and that smokers are expected to reduce consumption of pipe tobacco due to increasing specific tax on tobacco products – a development which should impact pipe tobacco products more due to the fact they come in larger packaging than RYO tobacco brands.

CATEGORY DATA

  • Table 65 Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: Volume 2006-2011
  • Table 66 Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: Value 2006-2011
  • Table 67 Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 68 Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 69 Company Shares of RYO Tobacco 2007-2011
  • Table 70 Brand Shares of RYO Tobacco 2008-2011
  • Table 71 Company Shares of Pipe Tobacco 2007-2011
  • Table 72 Brand Shares of Pipe Tobacco 2008-2011
  • Table 73 Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Distribution Format: % Analysis 2006-2011
  • Table 74 Forecast Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: Volume 2011-2016
  • Table 75 Forecast Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: Value 2011-2016
  • Table 76 Forecast Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2011-2016
  • Table 77 Forecast Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2011-2016

Segmentation

Segmentation

This market research report includes the following:

  • Tobacco
    • Cigarettes
      • High Tar Cigarettes
      • Mid Tar Cigarettes
      • Low Tar Cigarettes
      • Ultra Low Tar Cigarettes
    • Cigars
      • Cigars Excluding Cigarillos
        • Large Cigars
        • Standard Cigars
        • Small Cigars
      • Cigarillos
    • Smoking Tobacco
      • RYO Tobacco
      • Pipe Tobacco
    • Smokeless Tobacco
      • Chewing Tobacco
        • Asian-Style Chewing Tobacco
        • US-Style Chewing Tobacco
        • Other Chewing Tobacco
      • Snuff
        • Moist Snuff
          • US-Style Moist Snuff ('Dip')
            • Loose US-Style Moist Snuff
            • Portion US-Style Moist Snuff
          • Swedish-Style Snus
            • Loose Swedish-Style Snus
            • Portion Swedish-Style Snus
          • Asian Style Creamy Snuff
        • Dry Snuff
        • Hard Snuff
    • Cigarettes Including RYO Stick Equivalent
      • High Tar Cigarettes
      • Mid Tar Cigarettes
      • Low Tar Cigarettes
      • Ultra Low Tar Cigarettes
      • RYO Cigarettes

Statistics Included

Statistics Included

For each category and subcategory you will receive the following data in Excel format:

From Passport

  • Market sizes
  • Company shares
  • Brand shares
  • Distribution
  • Analysis by type
  • Cigarettes by blend
  • Cigarettes by carbon filter/non-carbon filter
  • Cigarettes by filtered/unfiltered
  • Cigarettes by length
  • Cigarettes by pack size
  • Cigarettes by pack type
  • Cigarettes by price band
  • Cigarettes by regular/slim/superslim
  • Cigarettes by standard/menthol
  • Illicit trade penetration
  • Pricing
  • Products by ingredient
  • Products by ingredient
  • Smoking population - number of adult smokers
  • Smoking prevalence - % of adult population
  • Taxation
  • Trade statistics - volume

Market size details:

  • Retail volume
  • Retail volume % growth
  • Retail volume per capita
  • Retail value retail selling price % growth
  • Retail value retail selling price local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Retail value retail selling price per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Illicit trade volume
  • Illicit trade volume % growth
  • Illicit trade volume per capita
  • Retail volume (sticks)
  • Retail volume (sticks) % growth
  • Retail volume (sticks) per capita
  • Retail plus illicit trade
  • Retail plus illicit trade % growth
  • Retail plus illicit trade per capita

Methodology

Methodology

Global insight and local knowledge

With 40 years’ experience of developed and emerging markets, Euromonitor International’s research method is built on a unique combination of specialist industry knowledge and in-country research expertise.

This approach is what enables us to achieve our goal of building a market consensus view of size, shape and trends across the full distribution universe of each category. We factor in whichever channels are relevant, from large-scale grocery to direct sellers, from discount stores to local mom-and-pop outlets.

Industry specialists

Each industry we cover is managed by an Industry Manager and team of Industry Analysts who research and report on their specialist categories all year round.

Our collaborative approach to research means that these industry teams are in constant dialogue with industry players and opinion formers. The planning of our research programmes reflects latest market trends and industry events. In completing each update project, this provides invaluable input to the testing, review and finalisation of our data.

The specialist in-house teams bring together findings from all stages of the annual research process. They work closely with in-country analysts, assess and challenge data and exercise final editorial control over the publication of new data and analysis.

Country and regional analysts

Our in-country analyst network is managed by country and regional analysts in our offices around the world. Working closely with each in-country team, the regional research management team ensures that all country researchers are well schooled in best practices, from the information collected in store checks, to the dialogue we build in trade surveys. Our country analysts ensure that national reports explain the data trends and provide clear insights into the local market’s dynamics.

In-country research network

To deliver fresh insights every year in countries all around the world, we believe the strongest approach is to use analysts on the ground. They bring fluency in local language, physical proximity to the best sources, an ability to engage directly with local industry contacts, and an awareness of how the products and services we study are advertised, sold and consumed. These are essential parts of our ability to report incisively on these markets.

Research Methodology

Our research methods

Each Euromonitor International industry report is based on a core set of research techniques:

Desk research

With industry events, corporate activity, trends and new product introductions tracked year round by our industry team, desk research provides a starting point for the in-country research programme. Our in-country researchers will access the following sources:

  • National statistics offices governmental and official sources
  • National and international trade press
  • National and international trade associations
  • Industry study groups and other semi-official sources
  • Company financials and annual reports
  • Broker reports
  • Online databases
  • The financial, business and mainstream press

Accessing sources is only the first step. The ability to interpret and reconcile often conflicting information across multiple sources is a key aspect of the added value we provide.

Store checks

Store checks are an integral part of our methods for product industries. Carried out on the ground across a relevant mix of channels, the information gained provides first-hand insights into the products we are researching, specifically:

  • Place: We track products in all relevant channels, selective and mass, store and non-store
  • Product: What are innovations in products, pack sizes and formats?
  • Price: What are brand price variations across channels, how do private label’s prices compare to those of branded goods?
  • Promotion: What are marketing and merchandising trends, offers, discounts and tie-ins?

Findings are cross-referenced with brand share data analysis. The results, combined with the findings of desk research, provide a strong basis for identifying key areas of questioning to take forward into our trade survey.

Trade survey

Interaction with global players at corporate HQ and regional levels is complemented by unique local data and insights from our in-country trade surveys around the world. Through the high profile of the Euromonitor International brand, we are able to talk directly to a wide range of sources and therefore inform our analysis with the knowledge and opinions of the leading operators in the market.

Trade surveys allow us to:

  • Fill gaps in available published data per company
  • Generate a consensus view of the size, structure and strategic direction of the category
  • Access year-in-progress data where published sources are out of date
  • Evaluate the experts’ views on current trends and market developments

In building our composite industry view, we engage with a variety of personnel in key players at all points of the supply chain: materials suppliers, manufacturers, distributors, retailers and service operators. We also interview desk research sources: industry associations; study groups; and third party observers from the trade and financial press.

Our objective is to engage in conversation with trade sources in which we exchange ideas and views on the industry, sharing our work-in-progress findings on supply/demand dynamics and potential. This dialogue enhances both parties’ understanding of the local market. The scope and reach of our trade survey also serves to eliminate bias (intentional and unintentional) from any single source.

Company analysis

At a global level, our company research combines our mix of industry interaction and use of secondary sources such as annual accounts, broker reports, financial press and databases. From a data perspective, the aim is to build “top-down” estimates of major players’ total global and regional sales.

At a country level, in line with local reporting requirements, we access annual accounts, national-specific company databases and local company websites. These are all invaluable sources as we build a view of each domestic player’s size and position within very specific categories of the industry.

Forecasts

Data projections and future performance analysis are key elements of Euromonitor International’s market intelligence. Working with historic trends of 15 years or more, a key aspect of our trade survey is to engage industry insider views of the next five years. Will volumes maintain their historic trend? Will price increases or falls of recent years continue, accelerate or slow down? Will increasing demand for one product cannibalise sales of another?

Forecasts represent many of the essential conclusions we have reached about the current state of the market, how it works and how it behaves under different macro and micro conditions. Our written analysis will state the assumptions and the trade opinion behind whether our predictions are optimistic or pessimistic, so that clients can use our statistical forecasts with confidence.

Data validation

All data is subjected to an exhaustive review process, at country, regional and global levels.

The interpretation and review of sources and data inputs forms a central part of the collaboration between industry teams and country researchers. Numbers are delivered to regional and global offices with an audit trail of sources and calculations to allow for a thorough evaluation of data sense and integrity.

Upon completion of the country review phase, data is then reviewed on a comparative basis at regional and then at a global level. Comparative checks are carried out on per capita consumption and spending levels, growth rates, patterns of category and subcategory breakdowns and distribution of sales by channel. Top-down estimates are reviewed against bottom-up regional and global market and company sales totals.

Where marked differences are seen between proximate country markets or ones at similar developmental levels, supplementary research is conducted in the relevant countries to confirm and/or amend those findings. This process ensures international comparability across the database, that consistent category and subcategory definitions have been used and that all data has been correctly tested. We make sure that possible discrepancies between different published sources have been reconciled and that our interpretation of opinion and expectation from each country’s trade sources has been applied to form a coherent international pattern.

Market analysis

Another integral part of all our research programmes is that all Euromonitor International data is accompanied by clear written analysis. From a research perspective, this explains and substantiates data findings. From a client perspective, this offers unique insights into local consumption trends, routes to market, brand preferences, channel dynamics and future trends.

Our country level analysis also provides invaluable input into the ability of our central industry specialist teams to marry local insights with strategic conclusions on the direction of the market regionally and globally.

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