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Country Report

Tobacco in Latvia

Jul 2011

Price: US$1,900

About this Report

About this Report

Samples (FAQs about samples):

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Overview

Discover the latest market trends and uncover sources of future market growth for the Tobacco industry in Latvia with research from Euromonitor's team of in-country analysts.

Find hidden opportunities in the most current research data available, understand competitive threats with our detailed market analysis, and plan your corporate strategy with our expert qualitative analysis and growth projections.

If you're in the Tobacco industry in Latvia, our research will save you time and money while empowering you to make informed, profitable decisions.

When you purchase this report, you also get the data and the content from these category reports in Latvia for free:

The Tobacco in Latvia market research report includes:

  • Analysis of key supply-side and demand trends
  • Detailed segmentation of international and local products
  • Historic volumes and values, company and brand market shares
  • Five year forecasts of market trends and market growth
  • Production, imports by origin, exports by destination
  • Robust and transparent market research methodology, conducted in-country

Our market research reports answer questions such as:

  • What is the market size of Tobacco in Latvia?
  • What are the major brands in Latvia?
  • Which sector of the tobacco products market is the largest by value sales in Latvia?
  • Which sector of the tobacco products market has been growing the fastest, by volume and value, in Latvia?
  • Which sector is the most heavily taxed in Latvia?
  • Which companies dominate in the total tobacco market in Latvia in terms of market share?
  • What is the distribution channel split for the tobacco products market in Latvia?

Why buy this report?

  • Gain competitive intelligence about market leaders
  • Track key industry trends, opportunities and threats
  • Inform your marketing, brand, strategy and market development, sales and supply functions

This industry report originates from Passport, our Tobacco market research database.

Sample Analysis

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Thriving illicit trade causes legal sales of cigarettes to drop dramatically

Cigarette prices in Latvia were brought up to the minimum EU level during the review period under Latvia’s State Tobacco Monitoring Programme for 2006-2010. As a result, cigarettes experienced several significant tax increases during the review period. Considerable price hikes took place during the same period as the Latvian economy entered a downturn. Consumer purchasing power decreased considerably as a result of the effects of the global economic crisis hitting Latvia hard, and many Latvian smokers switched to cheaper contraband cigarettes. As a result, the illicit trade reached 53% of total cigarettes volume in 2010, whilst legal cigarette sales declined by 23% in volume terms.

State Tobacco Monitoring Programme appears to be ineffective

Latvia’s State Tobacco Monitoring Programme for 2006-2010, which was implemented by the Latvian government, failed to achieve almost all of its targets in 2010 as the illicit tobacco trade experienced a considerable upswing and state revenue from tobacco taxes continued dropping. Furthermore, smoking prevalence amongst minors continues to increase but many adult smokers have switched to RYO tobacco, as a cheaper alternative. Introduction of economy Partner cigarillos by Philip Morris Latvia in early 2010 caused cigarillo sales to skyrocket, as many smokers switched from cigarettes to twice cheaper Partner cigarillos. In order to combat this trend and reduce smoking prevalence, since 1 January 2011 higher excise tax rates for all non-cigarette tobacco have been applied.

Tobacco smugglers lead tobacco in Latvia

In 2010, rather than working out strategies in order to compete with one another, major tobacco manufacturers focused their efforts on trying to persuade the Latvian government to apply stricter limits in order to combat the illicit trade in tobacco. British American Tobacco (BAT) Latvia, the only company with production facilities in Latvia, was forced to close its factory in 2009 due to the high level of competition coming from the illicit tobacco trade and started importing cigarettes into Latvia. The key volume shares in licit tobacco categories were concentrated amongst three multinationals, Philip Morris Latvia, BAT Latvia and JTI Marketing & Sales, although the clear leaders remained illegal traders.

Distribution patterns change

Distribution of tobacco varied between newsagent-tobacconists/kiosks, forecourt retailers, convenience stores and supermarkets/hypermarkets whilst the volume share of tobacco specialists generally declined in 2010. Cigars and especially smoking tobacco were distributed mainly through tobacco specialists in 2010. Distribution of cigarillos changed the most significantly in 2010, as the category was driven by economy Partner cigarillos, which have the same distribution as cigarettes. Cigarillo sales picked up significantly in convenience stores, for example. Partner cigarillos are even placed at POS near cigarettes rather than with the rest of cigarillos. Supermarkets/hypermarkets and discounters both experienced increases in volume share in 2010 due to product range diversification, long working hours and change in overall consumers’ purchasing patterns; today’s shoppers tend to do all the shopping in one place. Internet retailing is neither banned nor popular in Latvia, although online sales of tobacco might start growing, as has been seen in neighbouring Estonia.

Legal tobacco sales expected to recover slowly

Stricter measures for combating the contraband tobacco trade are expected to help legal tobacco sales to recover after a significant drop in volume during the review period. Value sales of tobacco are also expected to rise due to the introduction of the minimal excise tax rate, which has been in place since 1 January 2010. Both the thriving illicit tobacco trade and the minimal excise tax rate negatively impacted upon sales of economy cigarettes, and during the forecast period further premiumisation and therefore also value growth are expected. Other driving forces in tobacco are the increasing popularity of RYO tobacco and cigarillos, both of which posted significant growth in 2010 and are expected to develop further during the forecast period.

Table of Contents

Table of Contents

Tobacco in Latvia - Industry Overview

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Thriving illicit trade causes legal sales of cigarettes to drop dramatically

State Tobacco Monitoring Programme appears to be ineffective

Tobacco smugglers lead tobacco in Latvia

Distribution patterns change

Legal tobacco sales expected to recover slowly

OPERATING ENVIRONMENT

Legislative overview/FCTC ratification

  • Summary 1 Legislation Summary at a Glance

Country-specific legislation:

Minimum legal smoking age

Smoking Prevalence

  • Table 1 Smoking Prevalence in Adult Population 2005-2010
  • Table 2 Number of Smokers by Gender 2005-2010

Tar levels

Health warnings

Advertising & Sponsorship

Point-of-sale Display Bans

Smoking in public places

Low Ignition Propensity (LIP) regulation

Electronic cigarettes

Litigation

Death by Cause

  • Table 3 Death by Cause 2005-2010

TAXATION AND PRICING

Duty-paid packet marks

Taxation rates

  • Table 4 Taxation and Duty Levies for Cigarettes 2005-2010
  • Table 5 Taxation and Duty Levies for Cigars and Cigarillos 2005-2010
  • Table 6 Taxation and Duty Levies for Pipe Tobacco 2005-2010
  • Table 7 Taxation and Duty Levies for RYO Tobacco 2005-2010

Average cigarette pack price breakdown

  • Table 8 Average Cigarette Pack Price Breakdown: Brand Examples

PRODUCTION/IMPORTS/EXPORTS

  • Table 9 Production/Imports/Exports 2005-2010

Illicit trade in cigarettes

MARKET INDICATORS

  • Table 10 Illicit Trade Estimate of Cigarettes by Volume 2005-2010

MARKET DATA

  • Table 11 Sales of Tobacco by Category: Volume 2005-2010
  • Table 12 Sales of Tobacco by Category: Value 2005-2010
  • Table 13 Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 14 Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 15 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: Volume 2010-2015
  • Table 16 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: Value 2010-2015
  • Table 17 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2010-2015
  • Table 18 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2010-2015

DEFINITIONS

  • Summary 2 Research Sources

Tobacco in Latvia - Company Profiles

British American Tobacco Latvia SIA in Tobacco (Latvia)

STRATEGIC DIRECTION

KEY FACTS

COMPANY BACKGROUND

PRODUCTION

COMPETITIVE POSITIONING

  • Summary 5 British American Tobacco Latvia SIA: Competitive Position 2010

JTI Marketing & Sales SIA in Tobacco (Latvia)

STRATEGIC DIRECTION

KEY FACTS

COMPANY BACKGROUND

PRODUCTION

COMPETITIVE POSITIONING

  • Summary 8 JTI Marketing & Sales SIA: Competitive Position 2010

Philip Morris Latvia SIA in Tobacco (Latvia)

STRATEGIC DIRECTION

KEY FACTS

COMPANY BACKGROUND

PRODUCTION

COMPETITIVE POSITIONING

  • Summary 11 Philip Morris Latvia SIA: Competitive Position 2010

Cigarettes in Latvia - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • Sales of illicit cigarettes continued thriving in 2010, disrupting legal sales. In 2010 share of illicit market reached 53% of total cigarette consumption in Latvia, which was a result of several significant excise tax rate hikes during the review period. According to Latvia’s State Tobacco Monitoring Programme for 2006-2010, excise tax rates had to be increased until they were commensurate with minimum EU levels. Even though excise tax rates had already reached the EU level in 2009, a sharp increase of cigarette prices, fortified by economic crisis in Latvia, caused consumers to shift towards cheaper contraband alternatives. As Latvia borders with Russia and Belarus, where cigarette prices are much lower (around LVL0.50 and LVL0.70 per pack in comparison to LVL1.50-2.00 in Latvia), cigarette contraband immediately flowed into the country. Moreover, the Latvian Tobacco Producers Association states that Latvia is also a channel through which illicit cigarettes are delivered in Central Europe.

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

  • According to the State Revenue Service, the biggest tobacco importers and distributors in Latvia during 2010 were Philip Morris Latvia, JTI Marketing & Sales and BAT Latvia. These three companies accounted for volume shares of 34%, 28% and 27%, respectively in 2010. Collectively, these three multinational giants held 90% of cigarettes volume sales, which suggests that there is somewhat of an oligopoly in tobacco in Latvia. It can also be said that the privatisation process which was undertaken in tobacco in Latvia some time ago is now complete.

NEW PRODUCT DEVELOPMENTS

  • Summary 12 Cigarettes - New Product Launches

DISTRIBUTION

PROSPECTS

  • Over the forecast period, cigarettes in Latvia is expected to increase in volume at a 2% CAGR. Constant value growth at a 2% CAGR is also expected as prices will continue to rise throughout the forecast period thanks to the introduction of the minimal excise tax rate, which will be gradually increased until it reaches a maximum of LVL63. Ongoing premiumisation is also expected to make its mark on average cigarette unit prices during the forecast period. However, so far there are no signs that the illicit market is going to shrink much during the forthcoming years, and this fact leaves a very small probability of more rapid recovery of legal sales.

SECTOR BACKGROUND

Cigarettes: Price Bands

  • Summary 13 Cigarette Price Band Definitions

Cigarettes: Menthol/standard

Cigarettes: Filter/non-filter

Cigarettes: Carbon/standard filter

Cigarettes: Filter length

Cigarettes: Slims/superslims vs regular

Cigarettes: Pack size

Cigarettes: Pack type

CATEGORY DATA

  • Table 19 Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: Volume 2005-2010
  • Table 20 Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: Value 2005-2010
  • Table 21 Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: % Volume Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 22 Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: % Value Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 23 Sales of Cigarettes by Price Band: % Volume Breakdown 2005-2010
  • Table 24 Sales of Cigarettes by Standard/Menthol: % Volume Breakdown 2005-2010
  • Table 25 Sales of Cigarettes by Tobacco Type: % Volume Breakdown 2005-2010
  • Table 26 Sales of Cigarettes by Filter Vs Non-filter: % Volume Breakdown 2005-2010
  • Table 27 Sales of Filter Cigarettes by Carbon Vs Non-carbon: % Volume Breakdown 2005-2010
  • Table 28 Sales of Cigarettes by Length: % Volume Breakdown 2005-2010
  • Table 29 Sales of Cigarettes by Regular/Slim: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2010
  • Table 30 Sales of Cigarettes by Pack Size: % Volume Breakdown 2005-2010
  • Table 31 Sales of Cigarettes by Pack Type: % Volume Breakdown 2005-2010
  • Table 32 Cigarettes Company Shares 2006-2010
  • Table 33 Cigarettes Brand Shares 2007-2010
  • Table 34 Sales of Cigarettes by Distribution Format: % Analysis 2005-2010
  • Table 35 Cigarettes: Production, Imports and Exports: Total Volume 2005-2010
  • Table 36 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: Volume 2010-2015
  • Table 37 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: Value 2010-2015
  • Table 38 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: % Volume Growth 2010-2015
  • Table 39 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: % Value Growth 2010-2015
  • Table 40 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Price Band: % Volume Breakdown 2010-2015
  • Table 41 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Standard/Menthol: % Volume Breakdown 2010-2015
  • Table 42 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tobacco Type: % Volume Breakdown 2010-2015
  • Table 43 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Filter Vs Non-filter: % Volume Breakdown 2010-2015
  • Table 44 Forecast Sales of Filter Cigarettes by Carbon Vs Non-carbon: % Volume Breakdown 2010-2015
  • Table 45 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Length: % Volume Breakdown 2010-2015
  • Table 46 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Regular/Slim: % Volume Breakdown 2010-2015
  • Table 47 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Pack Size: % Volume Breakdown 2010-2015
  • Table 48 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Pack Type: % Volume Breakdown 2010-2015

Cigars in Latvia - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • Cigar smoking is not traditional in Latvia and began to develop mainly in the wake of Soviet rule when cigars gradually started appearing for the first time. Standard cigars appeared first, with the wide variety of cigarillos which can be purchased in Latvia appearing later. As a result, cigarillos are still developing whilst sales of cigars have already begun to slow down as a result of a certain degree of maturity.

HAND-MADE VERSUS MACHINE MANUFACTURED SPLITS

  • Table 49 Sales of Cigars by Handmade vs Machine-manufactured 2006-2010

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

  • Cigars excluding cigarillos have traditionally been dominated by Corporación Habanos, accounting for total volume share of 59%. The brands of Corporación Habanos are the most widely available in Latvia and are considered to offer an ideal combination of high quality and reasonable price. The key brands of Corporación Habanos SA are Romeo y Julieta, Cohiba, Guantanamera, Montecristo and Partagás. However, the company lost one percentage point of the market in 2010 due to expansion of others’ brands, such as those manufactured by Fuente & Newman Cigars and by The Rocky Patel Premium Cigar Co.

NEW PRODUCT DEVELOPMENTS

  • Summary 14 Cigars and Cigarillos - New Product Launches

DISTRIBUTION

PROSPECTS

  • Sales of cigars and cigarillos are set to increase over the forecast period, showing a volume CAGR of 7%. The category will be mainly driven by cigarillos, as sales of these are expected to continue increasing over the forecast period. Firstly, sales of economy Partner cigarillos, as a cheaper alternative to cigarettes, will continue growing in terms of slowly recovering purchasing power of consumers during the post-crisis period. Secondly, other cigarillo brands will also continue stealing market share from cigarettes, as these are considered by the majority as more stylish and qualitative.

CATEGORY DATA

  • Table 50 Sales of Cigars by Category: Volume 2005-2010
  • Table 51 Sales of Cigars by Category: Value 2005-2010
  • Table 52 Sales of Cigars by Category: % Volume Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 53 Sales of Cigars by Category: % Value Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 54 Sales of Cigars by Handmade vs Machine Manufactured: % Volume Breakdown 2005-2010
  • Table 55 Company Shares of Cigars Excluding Cigarillos 2006-2010
  • Table 56 Brand Shares of Cigars Excluding Cigarillos 2007-2010
  • Table 57 Company Shares of Cigarillos 2006-2010
  • Table 58 Brand Shares of Cigarillos 2007-2010
  • Table 59 Sales of Cigars by Distribution Format: % Analysis 2005-2010
  • Table 60 Forecast Sales of Cigars by Category: Volume 2010-2015
  • Table 61 Forecast Sales of Cigars by Category: Value 2010-2015
  • Table 62 Forecast Sales of Cigars by Category: % Volume Growth 2010-2015
  • Table 63 Forecast Sales of Cigars by Category: % Value Growth 2010-2015

Smokeless Tobacco in Latvia - Category Analysis

TRENDS

  • The sale and use of all forms of smokeless tobacco are forbidden by law in Latvia.

Smoking Tobacco in Latvia - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • In Latvia, pipe tobacco and RYO tobacco are each consumed by smokers from different generations. Pipe tobacco is more traditional and is bought mainly by men aged 40 and above, so-called dedicated smokers who despise ordinary cigarettes and prefer higher-quality pipe tobacco. Nevertheless, pipes are sometimes also smoked by younger people, mainly out of curiosity as it is considered an unusual habit for a youngster. Amongst the latest developments in pipe tobacco in Latvia is the increasing popularity and using pipe tobacco in a shisha, or traditional water pipe, which is very popular amongst Latvians aged between 16 and 40. RYO tobacco is mainly consumed by younger smokers aged between 16 and 25, although it should be kept in mind that the minimum legal smoking age in Latvia is 18.

The Role and Effect of Cannabis/Marijuana

DISTRIBUTION

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

  • Planta Tabak-Manufaktur Dr Manfred Obermann led smoking tobacco with volume share of 19% in 2010. The company’s brands Planta No.1, Holger Danske and Brebbia are amongst the most widespread pipe tobacco brands in Latvia, which helped the company lead volume sales of pipe tobacco in 2010. Market follower with a 13% volume share was Orlik Tobacco. The company owns such broadly available brands as Kir, Taste, Alsbo, Clan and W.O. Larsen. The key competitive advantages of Orlik Tobacco are broad distribution and various tastes available, such as cherry or whisky.

NEW PRODUCT DEVELOPMENTS

  • Summary 15 Smoking Tobacco - New Product Launches

PROSPECTS

  • Sales of smoking tobacco are set to increase at a volume CAGR of 4% over the forecast period. Even though higher excise tax will be imposed on smoking tobacco from 2011, the price difference between RYO tobacco and cigarettes still will be obvious.

CATEGORY DATA

  • Table 64 Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: Volume 2005-2010
  • Table 65 Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: Value 2005-2010
  • Table 66 Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 67 Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 68 Company Shares of RYO Tobacco 2006-2010
  • Table 69 Brand Shares of RYO Tobacco 2007-2010
  • Table 70 Company Shares of Pipe Tobacco 2006-2010
  • Table 71 Brand Shares of Pipe Tobacco 2007-2010
  • Table 72 Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Distribution Format: % Analysis 2005-2010
  • Table 73 Forecast Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: Volume 2010-2015
  • Table 74 Forecast Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: Value 2010-2015
  • Table 75 Forecast Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2010-2015
  • Table 76 Forecast Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2010-2015

Segmentation

Segmentation

This market research report includes the following:

  • Tobacco
    • Cigarettes
      • High Tar Cigarettes
      • Mid Tar Cigarettes
      • Low Tar Cigarettes
      • Ultra Low Tar Cigarettes
    • Cigars
      • Cigars Excluding Cigarillos
        • Large Cigars
        • Standard Cigars
        • Small Cigars
      • Cigarillos
    • Smoking Tobacco
      • RYO Tobacco
      • Pipe Tobacco
    • Smokeless Tobacco
      • Chewing Tobacco
        • Asian-Style Chewing Tobacco
        • US-Style Chewing Tobacco
        • Other Chewing Tobacco
      • Snuff
        • Moist Snuff
          • US-Style Moist Snuff ('Dip')
            • Loose US-Style Moist Snuff
            • Portion US-Style Moist Snuff
          • Swedish-Style Snus
            • Loose Swedish-Style Snus
            • Portion Swedish-Style Snus
          • Asian Style Creamy Snuff
        • Dry Snuff
        • Hard Snuff
    • Cigarettes Including RYO Stick Equivalent
      • High Tar Cigarettes
      • Mid Tar Cigarettes
      • Low Tar Cigarettes
      • Ultra Low Tar Cigarettes
      • RYO Cigarettes

Statistics Included

Statistics Included

For each category and subcategory you will receive the following data in Excel format:

From Passport

  • Market sizes
  • Company shares
  • Brand shares
  • Distribution
  • Analysis by type
  • Cigarettes by blend
  • Cigarettes by carbon filter/non-carbon filter
  • Cigarettes by filtered/unfiltered
  • Cigarettes by length
  • Cigarettes by pack size
  • Cigarettes by pack type
  • Cigarettes by price band
  • Cigarettes by regular/slim
  • Cigarettes by standard/menthol
  • Illicit trade penetration
  • Pricing
  • Products by ingredient
  • Products by ingredient
  • Smoking population - number of adult smokers
  • Smoking prevalence - % of adult population
  • Taxation
  • Trade statistics - volume

Market size details:

  • Retail volume
  • Retail volume % growth
  • Retail volume per capita
  • Retail value retail selling price % growth
  • Retail value retail selling price local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Retail value retail selling price per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Retail value retail selling price real (constant 2008) prices % growth
  • Retail value retail selling price real (constant 2008) prices local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Retail value retail selling price real (constant 2008) prices per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Illicit trade volume
  • Illicit trade volume % growth
  • Illicit trade volume per capita
  • Retail volume (sticks)
  • Retail volume (sticks) % growth
  • Retail volume (sticks) per capita
  • Retail value retail selling price nominal (current) prices % growth
  • Retail value retail selling price nominal (current) prices local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Retail value retail selling price nominal (current) prices per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Retail plus illicit trade
  • Retail plus illicit trade % growth
  • Retail plus illicit trade per capita

Methodology

Methodology

Global insight and local knowledge

With 40 years’ experience of developed and emerging markets, Euromonitor International’s research method is built on a unique combination of specialist industry knowledge and in-country research expertise.

This approach is what enables us to achieve our goal of building a market consensus view of size, shape and trends across the full distribution universe of each category. We factor in whichever channels are relevant, from large-scale grocery to direct sellers, from discount stores to local mom-and-pop outlets.

Industry specialists

Each industry we cover is managed by an Industry Manager and team of Industry Analysts who research and report on their specialist categories all year round.

Our collaborative approach to research means that these industry teams are in constant dialogue with industry players and opinion formers. The planning of our research programmes reflects latest market trends and industry events. In completing each update project, this provides invaluable input to the testing, review and finalisation of our data.

The specialist in-house teams bring together findings from all stages of the annual research process. They work closely with in-country analysts, assess and challenge data and exercise final editorial control over the publication of new data and analysis.

Country and regional analysts

Our in-country analyst network is managed by country and regional analysts in our offices around the world. Working closely with each in-country team, the regional research management team ensures that all country researchers are well schooled in best practices, from the information collected in store checks, to the dialogue we build in trade surveys. Our country analysts ensure that national reports explain the data trends and provide clear insights into the local market’s dynamics.

In-country research network

To deliver fresh insights every year in countries all around the world, we believe the strongest approach is to use analysts on the ground. They bring fluency in local language, physical proximity to the best sources, an ability to engage directly with local industry contacts, and an awareness of how the products and services we study are advertised, sold and consumed. These are essential parts of our ability to report incisively on these markets.

Research Methodology

Our research methods

Each Euromonitor International industry report is based on a core set of research techniques:

Desk research

With industry events, corporate activity, trends and new product introductions tracked year round by our industry team, desk research provides a starting point for the in-country research programme. Our in-country researchers will access the following sources:

  • National statistics offices governmental and official sources
  • National and international trade press
  • National and international trade associations
  • Industry study groups and other semi-official sources
  • Company financials and annual reports
  • Broker reports
  • Online databases
  • The financial, business and mainstream press

Accessing sources is only the first step. The ability to interpret and reconcile often conflicting information across multiple sources is a key aspect of the added value we provide.

Store checks

Store checks are an integral part of our methods for product industries. Carried out on the ground across a relevant mix of channels, the information gained provides first-hand insights into the products we are researching, specifically:

  • Place: We track products in all relevant channels, selective and mass, store and non-store
  • Product: What are innovations in products, pack sizes and formats?
  • Price: What are brand price variations across channels, how do private label’s prices compare to those of branded goods?
  • Promotion: What are marketing and merchandising trends, offers, discounts and tie-ins?

Findings are cross-referenced with brand share data analysis. The results, combined with the findings of desk research, provide a strong basis for identifying key areas of questioning to take forward into our trade survey.

Trade survey

Interaction with global players at corporate HQ and regional levels is complemented by unique local data and insights from our in-country trade surveys around the world. Through the high profile of the Euromonitor International brand, we are able to talk directly to a wide range of sources and therefore inform our analysis with the knowledge and opinions of the leading operators in the market.

Trade surveys allow us to:

  • Fill gaps in available published data per company
  • Generate a consensus view of the size, structure and strategic direction of the category
  • Access year-in-progress data where published sources are out of date
  • Evaluate the experts’ views on current trends and market developments

In building our composite industry view, we engage with a variety of personnel in key players at all points of the supply chain: materials suppliers, manufacturers, distributors, retailers and service operators. We also interview desk research sources: industry associations; study groups; and third party observers from the trade and financial press.

Our objective is to engage in conversation with trade sources in which we exchange ideas and views on the industry, sharing our work-in-progress findings on supply/demand dynamics and potential. This dialogue enhances both parties’ understanding of the local market. The scope and reach of our trade survey also serves to eliminate bias (intentional and unintentional) from any single source.

Company analysis

At a global level, our company research combines our mix of industry interaction and use of secondary sources such as annual accounts, broker reports, financial press and databases. From a data perspective, the aim is to build “top-down” estimates of major players’ total global and regional sales.

At a country level, in line with local reporting requirements, we access annual accounts, national-specific company databases and local company websites. These are all invaluable sources as we build a view of each domestic player’s size and position within very specific categories of the industry.

Forecasts

Data projections and future performance analysis are key elements of Euromonitor International’s market intelligence. Working with historic trends of 15 years or more, a key aspect of our trade survey is to engage industry insider views of the next five years. Will volumes maintain their historic trend? Will price increases or falls of recent years continue, accelerate or slow down? Will increasing demand for one product cannibalise sales of another?

Forecasts represent many of the essential conclusions we have reached about the current state of the market, how it works and how it behaves under different macro and micro conditions. Our written analysis will state the assumptions and the trade opinion behind whether our predictions are optimistic or pessimistic, so that clients can use our statistical forecasts with confidence.

Data validation

All data is subjected to an exhaustive review process, at country, regional and global levels.

The interpretation and review of sources and data inputs forms a central part of the collaboration between industry teams and country researchers. Numbers are delivered to regional and global offices with an audit trail of sources and calculations to allow for a thorough evaluation of data sense and integrity.

Upon completion of the country review phase, data is then reviewed on a comparative basis at regional and then at a global level. Comparative checks are carried out on per capita consumption and spending levels, growth rates, patterns of category and subcategory breakdowns and distribution of sales by channel. Top-down estimates are reviewed against bottom-up regional and global market and company sales totals.

Where marked differences are seen between proximate country markets or ones at similar developmental levels, supplementary research is conducted in the relevant countries to confirm and/or amend those findings. This process ensures international comparability across the database, that consistent category and subcategory definitions have been used and that all data has been correctly tested. We make sure that possible discrepancies between different published sources have been reconciled and that our interpretation of opinion and expectation from each country’s trade sources has been applied to form a coherent international pattern.

Market analysis

Another integral part of all our research programmes is that all Euromonitor International data is accompanied by clear written analysis. From a research perspective, this explains and substantiates data findings. From a client perspective, this offers unique insights into local consumption trends, routes to market, brand preferences, channel dynamics and future trends.

Our country level analysis also provides invaluable input into the ability of our central industry specialist teams to marry local insights with strategic conclusions on the direction of the market regionally and globally.

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