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Country Report

Tobacco in Lithuania

Oct 2012

Price: US$1,900

About this Report

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Tobacco returns to growth in 2011

Tobacco has been hit hard in Lithuania in recent years. Tight regulations, rising excise taxes and a depressed economic environment have been particularly hard to deal with, especially considering the huge inflow of smuggled cigarettes which are widely available throughout the country. Despite this, sales improved in 2011, mostly due to one of the speediest economic recoveries throughout the whole of the EU, with both volume and value sales increasing for the first time after two consecutive years of contraction.

Regulation shapes trends within tobacco products

Tobacco players continue to search for loopholes in cigarettes legislation. Due to comparatively low taxation on cigarillos, products in this area recorded soaring sales in 2010 as consumers looked to economise whilst continuing to smoke. However, legislators were quick to address the issue, increasing excise on cigars and cigarillos and proving once more that legislation shapes the market as much as the preferences of smokers, if not more.

Innovation taken seriously by companies

Tobacco players seem to have recognised the old truth that no firm can save its way out of a recession, only innovate its way out of one. In 2011, a large number of novelties were presented to consumers, ranging from incremental improvements in packaging design to adjustable cigarettes flavours. One major industry player went as far as crossing the boundaries of cigarettes and introducing its brand in a RYO format. Either with the extension of existing brands or the launch of new ones, companies tried to strengthen or establish their presence in all price segments. While premium cigarettes targeted at female consumers and young people remained the centre of attention, the economy segment also received some attention – a development that suggests that firms are not giving up on cheap cigarettes and that they expect at least some smokers to drift back from illicit sales as the economy gets stronger.

Sales continue to be dominated by limited number of players

There were only a handful of producers active within tobacco in Lithuania in 2011, with the area remaining as concentrated as ever. No new distribution changes were seen either, with cigarettes sales continuing to be dominated by modern grocery retailers. Niche products such as cigars and pipe tobacco remain in the hands of Skonis ir Kvapas (food/drinks/tobacco specialist retailer). Given the restrictions on business, the arrival of new players is unlikely as both the present and future prospects of the area do not appear particularly attractive.

Further restrictions threaten to compromise revival

While there were no key changes in legislation in Lithuania in 2011, some bad news might be in store for cigarette producers. Mandatory plain packaging is the biggest potential headache. Although a pain packaging law has not been passed at the national level, it could be introduced at the EU level. Should such a scenario play out, companies would find it hard to differentiate their products – a situation which would strongly impact premium cigarettes, which have been a primary source of growth in recent years.


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Overview

Discover the latest market trends and uncover sources of future market growth for the Tobacco industry in Lithuania with research from Euromonitor's team of in-country analysts.

Find hidden opportunities in the most current research data available, understand competitive threats with our detailed market analysis, and plan your corporate strategy with our expert qualitative analysis and growth projections.

If you're in the Tobacco industry in Lithuania, our research will save you time and money while empowering you to make informed, profitable decisions.

When you purchase this report, you also get the data and the content from these category reports in Lithuania for free:

The Tobacco in Lithuania market research report includes:

  • Analysis of key supply-side and demand trends
  • Detailed segmentation of international and local products
  • Historic volumes and values, company and brand market shares
  • Five year forecasts of market trends and market growth
  • Production, imports by origin, exports by destination
  • Robust and transparent market research methodology, conducted in-country

Our market research reports answer questions such as:

  • What is the market size of Tobacco in Lithuania?
  • What are the major brands in Lithuania?
  • Which sector of the tobacco products market is the largest by value sales in Lithuania?
  • Which sector of the tobacco products market has been growing the fastest, by volume and value, in Lithuania?
  • Which sector is the most heavily taxed in Lithuania?
  • Which companies dominate in the total tobacco market in Lithuania in terms of market share?
  • What is the distribution channel split for the tobacco products market in Lithuania?

Why buy this report?

  • Gain competitive intelligence about market leaders
  • Track key industry trends, opportunities and threats
  • Inform your marketing, brand, strategy and market development, sales and supply functions

This industry report originates from Passport, our Tobacco market research database.

Table of Contents

Table of Contents

Tobacco in Lithuania - Industry Overview

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Tobacco returns to growth in 2011

Regulation shapes trends within tobacco products

Innovation taken seriously by companies

Sales continue to be dominated by limited number of players

Further restrictions threaten to compromise revival

OPERATING ENVIRONMENT

Legislative overview/ FCTC ratification

  • Summary 1 Legislation Summary at a Glance

EU directives:

Smoking prevalence

  • Table 1 Smoking Prevalence in Adult Population 2006-2011
  • Table 2 Number of Smokers by Gender 2006-2011

Tar levels

Health warnings

Advertising & sponsorship

Point-of-sale display bans

Smoking in public places

Low ignition propensity (LIP) regulation

Electronic cigarettes

Litigation

Death by cause

  • Table 3 Death by Cause 2007-2011

TAXATION AND PRICING

Duty paid packet marks

Taxation rates

  • Table 4 Taxation and Duty Levies 2006-2011

Average cigarette pack price breakdown

  • Table 5 Average Cigarette Pack Price Breakdown: Brand Examples

PRODUCTION/IMPORTS/EXPORTS

  • Table 6 Trade Statistics – Cigarettes 2007-2011

Illicit trade in cigarettes

MARKET INDICATORS

  • Table 7 Illicit Trade Estimate of Cigarettes by Volume 2006-2011

MARKET DATA

  • Table 8 Sales of Tobacco by Category: Volume 2006-2011
  • Table 9 Sales of Tobacco by Category: Value 2006-2011
  • Table 10 Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 11 Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 12 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: Volume 2011-2016
  • Table 13 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: Value 2011-2016
  • Table 14 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2011-2016
  • Table 15 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2011-2016

DEFINITIONS

SOURCES

  • Summary 2 Research Sources

Tobacco in Lithuania - Company Profiles

JTI Marketing & Sales UAB in Tobacco (Lithuania)

KEY FACTS

COMPANY BACKGROUND

PRODUCTION

COMPETITIVE POSITIONING

  • Summary 4 JTI Marketing and Sales UAB: Competitive Position 2011

Philip Morris Lietuva UAB in Tobacco (Lithuania)

STRATEGIC DIRECTION

KEY FACTS

COMPANY BACKGROUND

PRODUCTION

COMPETITIVE POSITIONING

  • Summary 6 Philip Morris Lietuva UAB: Competitive Position 2011

Skonis IR Kvapas UAB in Tobacco (Lithuania)

STRATEGIC DIRECTION

KEY FACTS

COMPANY BACKGROUND

PRODUCTION

COMPETITIVE POSITIONING

Cigarettes in Lithuania - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • Although the revival of the country’s economy was not as fast as many consumers would like, purchasing power increased in Lithuania in 2011. This translated into better results for cigarettes producers, which registered an increase in sales for the first time in three years. Illegal trade remains a major problem. However, there are signs that some smokers of illegal products are returning to legal brands.

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

  • Cigarettes in Lithuania is an oligopoly, with three large multinationals dominating sales. Despite Phillip Morris Lietuva’s dominant position, the marketplace is believed to be fiercely competitive – a fact which prevents the leader from abusing its strength.

NEW PRODUCT DEVELOPMENTS

  • Summary 8 Cigarettes - New Product Launches

DISTRIBUTION

PROSPECTS

  • Despite both universal challenges, such as ever-stricter legislation, and unique ones, like the huge inflow of contraband cigarettes through poorly guarded borders, value sales are expected to increase over the coming years. Growth will be fuelled by three main factors. First, fears of recession no longer cloud the economy and consumer sentiment is gradually improving. As a result, higher disposable incomes will fuel spending on cigarettes due to both trading up and the receding share of illicit brands. Secondly, constantly rising excise duties, as outlined by the government, will lead to increasing unit prices. Lastly, firms currently operating in Lithuania have demonstrated their dedication to innovation. Even though the span of competitive advantage gained by any particular new product is short, companies benefit greatly by charging more money and thus contributing to the growth of the overall market.

CATEGORY BACKGROUND

Cigarettes: price bands

  • Summary 9 Cigarette Price Band Definitions

Cigarettes: menthol/standard

Flavour threads and capsule filters:

Cigarettes: filter/non-filter

Cigarettes: carbon/standard filter

Cigarettes: filter length

Cigarettes: regular vs. slims vs. superslims

Cigarettes: pack size

Cigarettes: pack type

CATEGORY DATA

  • Table 16 Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: Volume 2006-2011
  • Table 17 Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: Value 2006-2011
  • Table 18 Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: % Volume Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 19 Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: % Value Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 20 Sales of Cigarettes by Price Band: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 21 Sales of Cigarettes by Standard/Menthol: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 22 Sales of Cigarettes by Tobacco Type: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 23 Sales of Cigarettes by Filter Vs Non-filter: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 24 Sales of Filter Cigarettes by Carbon Vs Non-carbon: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 25 Sales of Cigarettes by Length: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 26 Sales of Cigarettes by Regular/Slim/Superslim: % Volume Breakdown 2007-2011
  • Table 27 Sales of Cigarettes by Pack Size: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 28 Sales of Cigarettes by Pack Type: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 29 Cigarettes Company Shares 2007-2011
  • Table 30 Cigarettes Brand Shares 2008-2011
  • Table 31 Sales of Cigarettes by Distribution Format: % Analysis 2006-2011
  • Table 32 Cigarettes: Production, Imports and Exports: Total Volume 2006-2011
  • Table 33 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: Volume 2011-2016
  • Table 34 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: Value 2011-2016
  • Table 35 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: % Volume Growth 2011-2016
  • Table 36 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: % Value Growth 2011-2016
  • Table 37 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Price Band: % Volume Breakdown 2011-2016
  • Table 38 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Standard/Menthol: % Volume Breakdown 2011-2016
  • Table 39 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tobacco Type: % Volume Breakdown 2011-2016
  • Table 40 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Filter Vs Non-filter: % Volume Breakdown 2011-2016
  • Table 41 Forecast Sales of Filter Cigarettes by Carbon Vs Non-carbon: % Volume Breakdown 2011-2016
  • Table 42 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Length: % Volume Breakdown 2011-2016
  • Table 43 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Regular/Slim/Superslim: % Volume Breakdown 2011-2016
  • Table 44 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Pack Size: % Volume Breakdown 2011-2016
  • Table 45 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Pack Type: % Volume Breakdown 2011-2016

Cigars in Lithuania - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • Only a small fraction of Lithuanians smoke cigars or cigarillos on a consistent basis. This is largely because of a lack of familiarity with such products. Both cigarette smokers and non-smokers rarely consider purchasing cigarillos or cigars except on rare occasions such as celebrations. The main reason that prevents cigars and cigarillos from gaining more awareness in the country is the ban on advertising, which was imposed before many Lithuanians were wealthy enough to afford such products. Even though the standard of living has improved significantly in recent years, demand for cigars and cigarillos continues to be limited to seasoned smokers.

HAND-MADE VERSUS MACHINE MANUFACTURED SPLITS

  • Table 46 Sales of Cigars by Handmade vs. Machine-made: % Volume/Value Breakdown 2007-2011

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

  • In terms of distribution, Skonis ir Kvapas UAB remained the only significant player in the area in 2011. The firm has a wide network of shops located in Lithuanian cities – big and small – that are usually situated in places which enjoy a high level of consumer footfall such as major streets or inside shopping malls. Skonis ir Kvapas faces no challenges from possible competitors because the tobacco business does not look very attractive considering the ever-stricter legislative environment.

NEW PRODUCT DEVELOPMENTS

  • Summary 10 Cigars - New Product Launches

DISTRIBUTION

PROSPECTS

  • Sellers of cigars and cigarillos do not expect to gain many new customers in the future. Their views are understandable given the expected further excise increases as well as possible legal changes, all of which would aim to curb the number of smokers. To make matters worse for retailers, they are not in the driving seat when it comes to actively growing their businesses: without the advertising – one of the vital tools of any marketing plan – available to them, companies have to concentrate on pleasing existing customers and not recruiting new ones. The explosive growth of cigarillos (77% review period volume CAGR) will probably remain a one-off event made possible only by unequal tax legislation and quick exploitation of tax related opportunities by market players.

CATEGORY DATA

  • Table 47 Sales of Cigars by Category: Volume 2006-2011
  • Table 48 Sales of Cigars by Category: Value 2006-2011
  • Table 49 Sales of Cigars by Category: % Volume Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 50 Sales of Cigars by Category: % Value Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 51 Sales of Cigars by Handmade vs Machine-manufactured: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 52 Sales of Cigars by Handmade vs Machine-manufactured: % Value Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 53 Company Shares of Cigars Excluding Cigarillos 2007-2011
  • Table 54 Brand Shares of Cigars Excluding Cigarillos 2008-2011
  • Table 55 Company Shares of Cigarillos 2007-2011
  • Table 56 Brand Shares of Cigarillos 2008-2011
  • Table 57 Sales of Cigars by Distribution Format: % Analysis 2006-2011
  • Table 58 Forecast Sales of Cigars by Category: Volume 2011-2016
  • Table 59 Forecast Sales of Cigars by Category: Value 2011-2016
  • Table 60 Forecast Sales of Cigars by Category: % Volume Growth 2011-2016
  • Table 61 Forecast Sales of Cigars by Category: % Value Growth 2011-2016

Smokeless Tobacco in Lithuania - Category Analysis

TRENDS

  • Smokeless tobacco is currently banned in Lithuania under EU law.

Smoking Tobacco in Lithuania - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • Pipe and RYO smoking tobacco has never been very popular in Lithuania, with smokers usually starting with and sticking to more traditional and convenient cigarettes. However, the area’s consumer base includes both loyal older smokers of pipes as well as a significant number of younger RYO smokers. The latter deserve some special attention and treatment as the number of people abandoning cigarettes and looking for alternatives (either for economic or exotic reasons) represents a lucrative business opportunity.

THE ROLE AND EFFECT OF CANNABIS/MARIJUANA

DISTRIBUTION

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

  • Skonis ir Kvapas remains firmly in control over sales of smoking tobacco products in Lithuania. The number of independent tobacco specialist stores is already small and in decline while Skonis ir Kvapas has a well-developed network (25 stores total) and has leverage over suppliers.

NEW PRODUCT DEVELOPMENTS

  • Summary 11 Smoking Tobacco - New Product Launches

PROSPECTS

  • The rise in excise rates in 2011 as well as already outlined future price increases will test the loyalty of smoking tobacco buyers. Although the area falls under less scrutiny than cigarettes, the pressure from health activists is also not expected to recede. The area is expected to experience some changes as well. For example, due to demographics, pipe tobacco should record a decline in customers as products in this area are typically bought by older males and the attraction of younger people is difficult under current legislation. At the same time, RYO tobacco presents more of an opportunity, not least because of increasing availability in stores. It will be up to producers and sellers to improve their products enough to present a serious challenge to cigarettes as the price factor will not be an important one in the future due to the fact that excise rates will rise in both areas.

CATEGORY DATA

  • Table 62 Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: Volume 2006-2011
  • Table 63 Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: Value 2006-2011
  • Table 64 Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 65 Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 66 Company Shares of RYO Tobacco 2007-2011
  • Table 67 Brand Shares of RYO Tobacco 2008-2011
  • Table 68 Company Shares of Pipe Tobacco 2007-2011
  • Table 69 Brand Shares of Pipe Tobacco 2008-2011
  • Table 70 Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Distribution Format: % Analysis 2006-2011
  • Table 71 Forecast Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: Volume 2011-2016
  • Table 72 Forecast Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: Value 2011-2016
  • Table 73 Forecast Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2011-2016
  • Table 74 Forecast Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2011-2016

Segmentation

Segmentation

This market research report includes the following:

  • Tobacco
    • Cigarettes
      • High Tar Cigarettes
      • Mid Tar Cigarettes
      • Low Tar Cigarettes
      • Ultra Low Tar Cigarettes
    • Cigars
      • Cigars Excluding Cigarillos
        • Large Cigars
        • Standard Cigars
        • Small Cigars
      • Cigarillos
    • Smoking Tobacco
      • RYO Tobacco
      • Pipe Tobacco
    • Smokeless Tobacco
      • Chewing Tobacco
        • Asian-Style Chewing Tobacco
        • US-Style Chewing Tobacco
        • Other Chewing Tobacco
      • Snuff
        • Moist Snuff
          • US-Style Moist Snuff ('Dip')
            • Loose US-Style Moist Snuff
            • Portion US-Style Moist Snuff
          • Swedish-Style Snus
            • Loose Swedish-Style Snus
            • Portion Swedish-Style Snus
          • Asian Style Creamy Snuff
        • Dry Snuff
        • Hard Snuff
    • Cigarettes Including RYO Stick Equivalent
      • High Tar Cigarettes
      • Mid Tar Cigarettes
      • Low Tar Cigarettes
      • Ultra Low Tar Cigarettes
      • RYO Cigarettes

Statistics Included

Statistics Included

For each category and subcategory you will receive the following data in Excel format:

From Passport

  • Market sizes
  • Company shares
  • Brand shares
  • Distribution
  • Analysis by type
  • Cigarettes by blend
  • Cigarettes by carbon filter/non-carbon filter
  • Cigarettes by filtered/unfiltered
  • Cigarettes by length
  • Cigarettes by pack size
  • Cigarettes by pack type
  • Cigarettes by price band
  • Cigarettes by regular/slim/superslim
  • Cigarettes by standard/menthol
  • Illicit trade penetration
  • Pricing
  • Products by ingredient
  • Products by ingredient
  • Smoking population - number of adult smokers
  • Smoking prevalence - % of adult population
  • Taxation
  • Trade statistics - volume

Market size details:

  • Retail volume
  • Retail volume % growth
  • Retail volume per capita
  • Retail value retail selling price % growth
  • Retail value retail selling price local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Retail value retail selling price per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Illicit trade volume
  • Illicit trade volume % growth
  • Illicit trade volume per capita
  • Retail volume (sticks)
  • Retail volume (sticks) % growth
  • Retail volume (sticks) per capita
  • Retail plus illicit trade
  • Retail plus illicit trade % growth
  • Retail plus illicit trade per capita

Methodology

Methodology

Global insight and local knowledge

With 40 years’ experience of developed and emerging markets, Euromonitor International’s research method is built on a unique combination of specialist industry knowledge and in-country research expertise.

This approach is what enables us to achieve our goal of building a market consensus view of size, shape and trends across the full distribution universe of each category. We factor in whichever channels are relevant, from large-scale grocery to direct sellers, from discount stores to local mom-and-pop outlets.

Industry specialists

Each industry we cover is managed by an Industry Manager and team of Industry Analysts who research and report on their specialist categories all year round.

Our collaborative approach to research means that these industry teams are in constant dialogue with industry players and opinion formers. The planning of our research programmes reflects latest market trends and industry events. In completing each update project, this provides invaluable input to the testing, review and finalisation of our data.

The specialist in-house teams bring together findings from all stages of the annual research process. They work closely with in-country analysts, assess and challenge data and exercise final editorial control over the publication of new data and analysis.

Country and regional analysts

Our in-country analyst network is managed by country and regional analysts in our offices around the world. Working closely with each in-country team, the regional research management team ensures that all country researchers are well schooled in best practices, from the information collected in store checks, to the dialogue we build in trade surveys. Our country analysts ensure that national reports explain the data trends and provide clear insights into the local market’s dynamics.

In-country research network

To deliver fresh insights every year in countries all around the world, we believe the strongest approach is to use analysts on the ground. They bring fluency in local language, physical proximity to the best sources, an ability to engage directly with local industry contacts, and an awareness of how the products and services we study are advertised, sold and consumed. These are essential parts of our ability to report incisively on these markets.

Research Methodology

Our research methods

Each Euromonitor International industry report is based on a core set of research techniques:

Desk research

With industry events, corporate activity, trends and new product introductions tracked year round by our industry team, desk research provides a starting point for the in-country research programme. Our in-country researchers will access the following sources:

  • National statistics offices governmental and official sources
  • National and international trade press
  • National and international trade associations
  • Industry study groups and other semi-official sources
  • Company financials and annual reports
  • Broker reports
  • Online databases
  • The financial, business and mainstream press

Accessing sources is only the first step. The ability to interpret and reconcile often conflicting information across multiple sources is a key aspect of the added value we provide.

Store checks

Store checks are an integral part of our methods for product industries. Carried out on the ground across a relevant mix of channels, the information gained provides first-hand insights into the products we are researching, specifically:

  • Place: We track products in all relevant channels, selective and mass, store and non-store
  • Product: What are innovations in products, pack sizes and formats?
  • Price: What are brand price variations across channels, how do private label’s prices compare to those of branded goods?
  • Promotion: What are marketing and merchandising trends, offers, discounts and tie-ins?

Findings are cross-referenced with brand share data analysis. The results, combined with the findings of desk research, provide a strong basis for identifying key areas of questioning to take forward into our trade survey.

Trade survey

Interaction with global players at corporate HQ and regional levels is complemented by unique local data and insights from our in-country trade surveys around the world. Through the high profile of the Euromonitor International brand, we are able to talk directly to a wide range of sources and therefore inform our analysis with the knowledge and opinions of the leading operators in the market.

Trade surveys allow us to:

  • Fill gaps in available published data per company
  • Generate a consensus view of the size, structure and strategic direction of the category
  • Access year-in-progress data where published sources are out of date
  • Evaluate the experts’ views on current trends and market developments

In building our composite industry view, we engage with a variety of personnel in key players at all points of the supply chain: materials suppliers, manufacturers, distributors, retailers and service operators. We also interview desk research sources: industry associations; study groups; and third party observers from the trade and financial press.

Our objective is to engage in conversation with trade sources in which we exchange ideas and views on the industry, sharing our work-in-progress findings on supply/demand dynamics and potential. This dialogue enhances both parties’ understanding of the local market. The scope and reach of our trade survey also serves to eliminate bias (intentional and unintentional) from any single source.

Company analysis

At a global level, our company research combines our mix of industry interaction and use of secondary sources such as annual accounts, broker reports, financial press and databases. From a data perspective, the aim is to build “top-down” estimates of major players’ total global and regional sales.

At a country level, in line with local reporting requirements, we access annual accounts, national-specific company databases and local company websites. These are all invaluable sources as we build a view of each domestic player’s size and position within very specific categories of the industry.

Forecasts

Data projections and future performance analysis are key elements of Euromonitor International’s market intelligence. Working with historic trends of 15 years or more, a key aspect of our trade survey is to engage industry insider views of the next five years. Will volumes maintain their historic trend? Will price increases or falls of recent years continue, accelerate or slow down? Will increasing demand for one product cannibalise sales of another?

Forecasts represent many of the essential conclusions we have reached about the current state of the market, how it works and how it behaves under different macro and micro conditions. Our written analysis will state the assumptions and the trade opinion behind whether our predictions are optimistic or pessimistic, so that clients can use our statistical forecasts with confidence.

Data validation

All data is subjected to an exhaustive review process, at country, regional and global levels.

The interpretation and review of sources and data inputs forms a central part of the collaboration between industry teams and country researchers. Numbers are delivered to regional and global offices with an audit trail of sources and calculations to allow for a thorough evaluation of data sense and integrity.

Upon completion of the country review phase, data is then reviewed on a comparative basis at regional and then at a global level. Comparative checks are carried out on per capita consumption and spending levels, growth rates, patterns of category and subcategory breakdowns and distribution of sales by channel. Top-down estimates are reviewed against bottom-up regional and global market and company sales totals.

Where marked differences are seen between proximate country markets or ones at similar developmental levels, supplementary research is conducted in the relevant countries to confirm and/or amend those findings. This process ensures international comparability across the database, that consistent category and subcategory definitions have been used and that all data has been correctly tested. We make sure that possible discrepancies between different published sources have been reconciled and that our interpretation of opinion and expectation from each country’s trade sources has been applied to form a coherent international pattern.

Market analysis

Another integral part of all our research programmes is that all Euromonitor International data is accompanied by clear written analysis. From a research perspective, this explains and substantiates data findings. From a client perspective, this offers unique insights into local consumption trends, routes to market, brand preferences, channel dynamics and future trends.

Our country level analysis also provides invaluable input into the ability of our central industry specialist teams to marry local insights with strategic conclusions on the direction of the market regionally and globally.

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