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Country Report

Tobacco in Macedonia

Oct 2011

Price: US$1,900

About this Report

About this Report

Samples (FAQs about samples):

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Overview

Discover the latest market trends and uncover sources of future market growth for the Tobacco industry in Macedonia with research from Euromonitor's team of in-country analysts.

Find hidden opportunities in the most current research data available, understand competitive threats with our detailed market analysis, and plan your corporate strategy with our expert qualitative analysis and growth projections.

If you're in the Tobacco industry in Macedonia, our research will save you time and money while empowering you to make informed, profitable decisions.

When you purchase this report, you also get the data and the content from these category reports in Macedonia for free:

The Tobacco in Macedonia market research report includes:

  • Analysis of key supply-side and demand trends
  • Detailed segmentation of international and local products
  • Historic volumes and values, company and brand market shares
  • Five year forecasts of market trends and market growth
  • Production, imports by origin, exports by destination
  • Robust and transparent market research methodology, conducted in-country

Our market research reports answer questions such as:

  • What is the market size of Tobacco in Macedonia?
  • What are the major brands in Macedonia?
  • Which sector of the tobacco products market is the largest by value sales in Macedonia?
  • Which sector of the tobacco products market has been growing the fastest, by volume and value, in Macedonia?
  • Which sector is the most heavily taxed in Macedonia?
  • Which companies dominate in the total tobacco market in Macedonia in terms of market share?
  • What is the distribution channel split for the tobacco products market in Macedonia?

Why buy this report?

  • Gain competitive intelligence about market leaders
  • Track key industry trends, opportunities and threats
  • Inform your marketing, brand, strategy and market development, sales and supply functions

This industry report originates from Passport, our Tobacco market research database.

Sample Analysis

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Tobacco sales decline in 2010

Tobacco sales in Macedonia suffered a significant blow in 2010, with the overall market declining by 8% in current value terms. 1 January marked the start of an official ban on smoking in public places. Prices of tobacco products remained largely unchanged in an effort to prevent a further downward spiral in volume sales influenced by growing anti-smoking sentiment and rising health consciousness. Weak purchasing power was an additional factor behind the significant decline in tobacco consumption in Macedonia in 2010. Consumers who were hit hard by the global recession switched to economy products from mid and high-priced brands. This shift further influenced the decline in current value terms.

Impact of anti-smoking regulations

In 2009, there were significant legislative interventions which directly affected cigarettes and tobacco consumption in Macedonia in general, such as a ban on high-tar cigarettes and smoking in public. The horeca channel warned that the ban would negatively impact its performance. However, the government of Macedonia fully implemented and enforced this legislation with effect from 1 January 2010. An increasing number of cigarette packs now also feature gruesome visual images to remind consumers of the health hazards associated with smoking. 2010 was also a year of government-sponsored campaigns in the electronic and print media against smoking and its effects on health. Smoking prevalence among adults experienced a decline and now stands at its lowest ever level in the country.

Domestic companies dominate cigarettes

Cigarettes is the largest tobacco category in Macedonia in both retail volume and value terms. Two domestic manufacturers, Imperial Tobako TKS AD and Tutunski Kombinat Prilep ad, together accounted for a dominant 79% share of cigarette retail volume sales in Macedonia in 2010. Imperial Tobako TKS AD, now part of Imperial Tobacco Plc, maintained its leading position with a 61% share of cigarette retail volume sales. Mid-tar cigarettes remained by far the largest category within cigarettes in Macedonia. Lower-tar categories, however, led in terms of new product development, driven mainly by the largest manufacturer in Macedonia, Imperial Tobako TKS, as well as regional players such as Adris Grupa dd.

Cigars and cigarillos saw more consistent availability of brands in 2010 through the distribution network of Kaliman Caribe, a Bulgarian-based company which exclusively imports foreign cigars and cigarillos from various renowned manufacturers and sells them via three specialist stores in Skopje.

Independent small grocers lead distribution

Macedonian law prohibits the self-service sale of tobacco products, including internet retailing and vending. Independent small grocers remained the leading distribution channel for cigarettes in 2010. These stores continue to be seen as the most convenient day-to-day distribution outlets thanks to their convenient locations and extensive opening hours. Newsagent- tobacconists/kiosks continued to be the leading distribution channel for cigars. Supermarkets/hypermarkets remained largely uninterested in selling most tobacco products other than cigarettes.

Decline set to continue

The 2010 complete ban on smoking in public places and subsequent decline in the horeca channel will adversely affect tobacco consumption. The mandatory graphic health warnings on tobacco products will also further impact the market. Although it is not expected to decline as rapidly as in 2010, tobacco consumption in Macedonia will continue to decline moderately over the forecast period. Retail volume sales are expected to fall, with fewer smokers having fewer opportunities to smoke in public while socialising or entertaining. Tobacco retail value sales are also expected to decline over the forecast period.

Table of Contents

Table of Contents

Tobacco in Macedonia - Industry Overview

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Tobacco sales decline in 2010

Impact of anti-smoking regulations

Domestic companies dominate cigarettes

Independent small grocers lead distribution

Decline set to continue

OPERATING ENVIRONMENT

Legislative overview/ FCTC ratification

  • Summary 1 Legislation Summary at a Glance

Country-specific legislation:

Minimum legal smoking age

Smoking Prevalence

  • Table 1 Smoking Prevalence in Adult Population 2005-2010
  • Table 2 Number of Smokers by Gender 2005-2010

Tar levels

Health warnings

Advertising & Sponsorship

Point-of-sale Display Bans

Smoking in public places

Low Ignition Propensity (LIP) regulation

Electronic cigarettes

Litigation

Death by Cause

  • Table 3 Death by Cause 2005-2010

TAXATION AND PRICING

Duty paid packet marks

Taxation rates

  • Table 4 Taxation and Duty Levies 2005-2010

Average cigarette pack price breakdown

  • Table 5 Average Cigarette Pack Price Breakdown: Brand Examples 2011

PRODUCTION/IMPORTS/EXPORTS

  • Table 6 Production/Imports/Exports 2005-2010
  • Table 7 Trade Statistics – Leaf Tobacco 2006-2010
  • Table 8 Trade Statistics – Tobacco 2006-2010

Illicit trade in cigarettes

MARKET INDICATORS

  • Table 9 Illicit Trade Estimate of Cigarettes by Volume 2005-2010

MARKET DATA

  • Table 10 Sales of Tobacco by Category: Volume 2005-2010
  • Table 11 Sales of Tobacco by Category: Value 2005-2010
  • Table 12 Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 13 Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 14 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: Volume 2010-2015
  • Table 15 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: Value 2010-2015
  • Table 16 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2010-2015
  • Table 17 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2010-2015

DEFINITIONS

  • Summary 2 Research Sources

Tobacco in Macedonia - Company Profiles

Adris Grupa dd in Tobacco (Macedonia)

STRATEGIC DIRECTION

KEY FACTS

COMPANY BACKGROUND

PRODUCTION

COMPETITIVE POSITIONING

  • Summary 5 Adris Grupa dd: Competitive Position 2010

Imperial Tobako TKS AD in Tobacco (Macedonia)

STRATEGIC DIRECTION

KEY FACTS

COMPANY BACKGROUND

PRODUCTION

COMPETITIVE POSITIONING

  • Summary 8 Imperial Tobako TKS AD: Competitive Position 2010

Tutunski Kombinat Prilep ad in Tobacco (Macedonia)

STRATEGIC DIRECTION

KEY FACTS

COMPANY BACKGROUND

PRODUCTION

COMPETITIVE POSITIONING

  • Summary 11 Tutunski Kombinat Prilep ad: Competitive Position 2010

Cigarettes in Macedonia - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • Retail volume sales experienced a decline of 11% in 2010 compared to a CAGR decline of just 1% over the review period as a whole. Aware that the global financial crisis, coupled with the latest anti-smoking regulations, is affecting their consumer base, the vast majority of cigarette manufacturers did not increase prices in 2010 in an effort to prevent an even heavier decline. One noticeable measure that was implemented by some manufacturers was that 20 packs became packs of 19 in 2010. Retail value sales fell by 8% in current terms in 2010.

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

  • In 2010, Imperial Tobako TKS AD continued to dominate cigarettes in Macedonia, commanding a retail volume share of 61%, up from 57% a year earlier. The company’s increase in share was a result of the declining share and position of Tutunski Kombinat Prilep ad, which maintained second position with a retail volume share of 19% despite ongoing capital transformation issues and company restructuring. Adris Grupa dd, Philip Morris International Inc and Japan Tobacco Inc accounted for retail volume shares of 9%, 5% and 2%, respectively.

NEW PRODUCT DEVELOPMENTS

  • Summary 12 Cigarettes - New Product Launches

DISTRIBUTION

PROSPECTS

  • The 2010 full public smoking ban will continue to influence the tobacco industry and tobacco consumption in Macedonia for years to come. Only hard-core smokers will be able to resist the ongoing anti-tobacco campaigns.

CATEGORY BACKGROUND

Cigarettes: Price Bands

  • Summary 13 Cigarette Price Band Definitions

Cigarettes: Menthol/standard

Cigarettes: Filter/non-filter

Cigarettes: Carbon/standard filter

Cigarettes: Filter length

Cigarettes: Slims/superslims vs regular

Cigarettes: Pack size

Cigarettes: Pack type

CATEGORY DATA

  • Table 18 Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: Volume 2005-2010
  • Table 19 Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: Value 2005-2010
  • Table 20 Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: % Volume Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 21 Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: % Value Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 22 Sales of Cigarettes by Price Band: % Volume Breakdown 2005-2010
  • Table 23 Sales of Cigarettes by Standard/Menthol: % Volume Breakdown 2005-2010
  • Table 24 Sales of Cigarettes by Tobacco Type: % Volume Breakdown 2005-2010
  • Table 25 Sales of Cigarettes by Filter Vs Non-filter: % Volume Breakdown 2005-2010
  • Table 26 Sales of Filter Cigarettes by Carbon Vs Non-carbon: % Volume Breakdown 2005-2010
  • Table 27 Sales of Cigarettes by Length: % Volume Breakdown 2005-2010
  • Table 28 Sales of Cigarettes by Regular/Slim: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2010
  • Table 29 Sales of Cigarettes by Pack Size: % Volume Breakdown 2005-2010
  • Table 30 Sales of Cigarettes by Pack Type: % Volume Breakdown 2005-2010
  • Table 31 Cigarettes Company Shares 2006-2010
  • Table 32 Cigarettes Brand Shares 2007-2010
  • Table 33 Sales of Cigarettes by Distribution Format: % Analysis 2005-2010
  • Table 34 Cigarettes: Production, Imports and Exports: Total Volume 2005-2010
  • Table 35 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: Volume 2010-2015
  • Table 36 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: Value 2010-2015
  • Table 37 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: % Volume Growth 2010-2015
  • Table 38 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: % Value Growth 2010-2015
  • Table 39 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Price Band: % Volume Breakdown 2010-2015
  • Table 40 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Standard/Menthol: % Volume Breakdown 2010-2015
  • Table 41 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tobacco Type: % Volume Breakdown 2010-2015
  • Table 42 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Filter Vs Non-filter: % Volume Breakdown 2010-2015
  • Table 43 Forecast Sales of Filter Cigarettes by Carbon Vs Non-carbon: % Volume Breakdown 2010-2015
  • Table 44 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Length: % Volume Breakdown 2010-2015
  • Table 45 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Regular/Slim: % Volume Breakdown 2010-2015
  • Table 46 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Pack Size: % Volume Breakdown 2010-2015
  • Table 47 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Pack Type: % Volume Breakdown 2010-2015

Cigars in Macedonia - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • Cigars and cigarillos have a relatively low presence in Macedonia when compared to cigarettes. Cigars and cigarillos are often regarded as expensive and unaffordable luxury items which are purchased only by more affluent consumers wishing to express their social status.

HANDMADE VERSUS MACHINE-MANUFACTURED SPLITS

  • Table 48 Sales of Cigars by Handmade vs Machine-manufactured 2006-2010

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

  • The leading cigar importer and distributor in Macedonia in 2010 was Kaliman Caribe, a Bulgarian company which imports cigar and cigarillo brands from the major global manufacturers, such as Corporación Habanos SA, Agio Cigars, Scandinavian Tobacco Group A/S etc. Other companies include Evroprogress Trade dooel, Farel Cigar dooel and Kalina Stajl dooel. Premium Cigars and Tobacco is the leading sales outlet for cigars and cigarillos, with three medium-sized shops located in central areas in the Macedonian capital Skopje.

NEW PRODUCT DEVELOPMENTS

  • Summary 14 Cigars and Cigarillos - New Product Launches

DISTRIBUTION

PROSPECTS

  • Over the forecast period cigars and cigarillos is expected to register a positive retail volume CAGR of 1% but also a constant value CAGR decline of 1%. Small cigars is set to be the best performer in constant value terms with a CAGR of 1% despite remaining flat in volume terms. Large and standard cigars are expected to achieve similar volume CAGRs of 1% but both suffer declines in constant value terms. Cigarillos is expected to achieve a volume CAGR of 1% but also suffer a CAGR decline of 1% in constant value terms.

CATEGORY DATA

  • Table 49 Sales of Cigars by Category: Volume 2005-2010
  • Table 50 Sales of Cigars by Category: Value 2005-2010
  • Table 51 Sales of Cigars by Category: % Volume Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 52 Sales of Cigars by Category: % Value Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 53 Sales of Cigars by Handmade vs Machine Manufactured: % Volume Breakdown 2005-2010
  • Table 54 Company Shares of Cigars Excluding Cigarillos 2006-2010
  • Table 55 Brand Shares of Cigars Excluding Cigarillos 2007-2010
  • Table 56 Company Shares of Cigarillos 2006-2010
  • Table 57 Brand Shares of Cigarillos 2007-2010
  • Table 58 Sales of Cigars by Distribution Format: % Analysis 2005-2010
  • Table 59 Forecast Sales of Cigars by Category: Volume 2010-2015
  • Table 60 Forecast Sales of Cigars by Category: Value 2010-2015
  • Table 61 Forecast Sales of Cigars by Category: % Volume Growth 2010-2015
  • Table 62 Forecast Sales of Cigars by Category: % Value Growth 2010-2015

Smokeless Tobacco in Macedonia - Category Analysis

TRENDS

  • No smokeless tobacco products were present in Macedonia in 2010. The sale and distribution of chewing tobacco is prohibited. Sniffing tobacco, although not regulated, remained largely unavailable in the country in 2010.

Smoking Tobacco in Macedonia - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • An underdeveloped category in Macedonia, smoking tobacco was not significantly affected by the global economic crisis of 2009 and its aftermath. Modest consumption and sales of smoking tobacco in Macedonia have their roots primarily in cultural habits and not economics.

The Role and Effect of Cannabis/Marijuana

DISTRIBUTION

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

  • Scandinavian Tobacco Group A/S and Mac Baren Tobacco Co A/S accounted for the largest share of sales of smoking tobacco in Macedonia in 2010. Other companies present include Gryson NV and Planta Tabak- Manufaktur Dr Manfred Obermann GmbH & Co.

NEW PRODUCT DEVELOPMENTS

PROSPECTS

  • Smoking tobacco is expected to experience very modest volume growth in 2011 and 2012. This will then be followed by a steady overall decline to 2015, with the category registering a volume CAGR decline of 1% over the forecast period as a whole.

CATEGORY DATA

  • Table 63 Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Distribution Format: % Analysis 2005-2010
  • Table 64 Forecast Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: Volume 2010-2015
  • Table 65 Forecast Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: Value 2010-2015
  • Table 66 Forecast Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2010-2015
  • Table 67 Forecast Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2010-2015

Segmentation

Segmentation

This market research report includes the following:

  • Tobacco
    • Cigarettes
      • High Tar Cigarettes
      • Mid Tar Cigarettes
      • Low Tar Cigarettes
      • Ultra Low Tar Cigarettes
    • Cigars
      • Cigars Excluding Cigarillos
        • Large Cigars
        • Standard Cigars
        • Small Cigars
      • Cigarillos
    • Smoking Tobacco
      • RYO Tobacco
      • Pipe Tobacco
    • Smokeless Tobacco
      • Chewing Tobacco
        • Asian-Style Chewing Tobacco
        • US-Style Chewing Tobacco
        • Other Chewing Tobacco
      • Snuff
        • Moist Snuff
          • US-Style Moist Snuff ('Dip')
            • Loose US-Style Moist Snuff
            • Portion US-Style Moist Snuff
          • Swedish-Style Snus
            • Loose Swedish-Style Snus
            • Portion Swedish-Style Snus
          • Asian Style Creamy Snuff
        • Dry Snuff
        • Hard Snuff
    • Cigarettes Including RYO Stick Equivalent
      • High Tar Cigarettes
      • Mid Tar Cigarettes
      • Low Tar Cigarettes
      • Ultra Low Tar Cigarettes
      • RYO Cigarettes

Statistics Included

Statistics Included

For each category and subcategory you will receive the following data in Excel format:

From Passport

  • Market sizes
  • Company shares
  • Brand shares
  • Distribution
  • Analysis by type
  • Cigarettes by blend
  • Cigarettes by carbon filter/non-carbon filter
  • Cigarettes by filtered/unfiltered
  • Cigarettes by length
  • Cigarettes by pack size
  • Cigarettes by pack type
  • Cigarettes by price band
  • Cigarettes by regular/slim
  • Cigarettes by standard/menthol
  • Illicit trade penetration
  • Pricing
  • Products by ingredient
  • Products by ingredient
  • Smoking population - number of adult smokers
  • Smoking prevalence - % of adult population
  • Taxation
  • Trade statistics - volume

Market size details:

  • Retail volume
  • Retail volume % growth
  • Retail volume per capita
  • Retail value retail selling price % growth
  • Retail value retail selling price local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Retail value retail selling price per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Retail value retail selling price real (constant 2008) prices % growth
  • Retail value retail selling price real (constant 2008) prices local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Retail value retail selling price real (constant 2008) prices per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Illicit trade volume
  • Illicit trade volume % growth
  • Illicit trade volume per capita
  • Retail volume (sticks)
  • Retail volume (sticks) % growth
  • Retail volume (sticks) per capita
  • Retail value retail selling price nominal (current) prices % growth
  • Retail value retail selling price nominal (current) prices local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Retail value retail selling price nominal (current) prices per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Retail plus illicit trade
  • Retail plus illicit trade % growth
  • Retail plus illicit trade per capita

Methodology

Methodology

Global insight and local knowledge

With 40 years’ experience of developed and emerging markets, Euromonitor International’s research method is built on a unique combination of specialist industry knowledge and in-country research expertise.

This approach is what enables us to achieve our goal of building a market consensus view of size, shape and trends across the full distribution universe of each category. We factor in whichever channels are relevant, from large-scale grocery to direct sellers, from discount stores to local mom-and-pop outlets.

Industry specialists

Each industry we cover is managed by an Industry Manager and team of Industry Analysts who research and report on their specialist categories all year round.

Our collaborative approach to research means that these industry teams are in constant dialogue with industry players and opinion formers. The planning of our research programmes reflects latest market trends and industry events. In completing each update project, this provides invaluable input to the testing, review and finalisation of our data.

The specialist in-house teams bring together findings from all stages of the annual research process. They work closely with in-country analysts, assess and challenge data and exercise final editorial control over the publication of new data and analysis.

Country and regional analysts

Our in-country analyst network is managed by country and regional analysts in our offices around the world. Working closely with each in-country team, the regional research management team ensures that all country researchers are well schooled in best practices, from the information collected in store checks, to the dialogue we build in trade surveys. Our country analysts ensure that national reports explain the data trends and provide clear insights into the local market’s dynamics.

In-country research network

To deliver fresh insights every year in countries all around the world, we believe the strongest approach is to use analysts on the ground. They bring fluency in local language, physical proximity to the best sources, an ability to engage directly with local industry contacts, and an awareness of how the products and services we study are advertised, sold and consumed. These are essential parts of our ability to report incisively on these markets.

Research Methodology

Our research methods

Each Euromonitor International industry report is based on a core set of research techniques:

Desk research

With industry events, corporate activity, trends and new product introductions tracked year round by our industry team, desk research provides a starting point for the in-country research programme. Our in-country researchers will access the following sources:

  • National statistics offices governmental and official sources
  • National and international trade press
  • National and international trade associations
  • Industry study groups and other semi-official sources
  • Company financials and annual reports
  • Broker reports
  • Online databases
  • The financial, business and mainstream press

Accessing sources is only the first step. The ability to interpret and reconcile often conflicting information across multiple sources is a key aspect of the added value we provide.

Store checks

Store checks are an integral part of our methods for product industries. Carried out on the ground across a relevant mix of channels, the information gained provides first-hand insights into the products we are researching, specifically:

  • Place: We track products in all relevant channels, selective and mass, store and non-store
  • Product: What are innovations in products, pack sizes and formats?
  • Price: What are brand price variations across channels, how do private label’s prices compare to those of branded goods?
  • Promotion: What are marketing and merchandising trends, offers, discounts and tie-ins?

Findings are cross-referenced with brand share data analysis. The results, combined with the findings of desk research, provide a strong basis for identifying key areas of questioning to take forward into our trade survey.

Trade survey

Interaction with global players at corporate HQ and regional levels is complemented by unique local data and insights from our in-country trade surveys around the world. Through the high profile of the Euromonitor International brand, we are able to talk directly to a wide range of sources and therefore inform our analysis with the knowledge and opinions of the leading operators in the market.

Trade surveys allow us to:

  • Fill gaps in available published data per company
  • Generate a consensus view of the size, structure and strategic direction of the category
  • Access year-in-progress data where published sources are out of date
  • Evaluate the experts’ views on current trends and market developments

In building our composite industry view, we engage with a variety of personnel in key players at all points of the supply chain: materials suppliers, manufacturers, distributors, retailers and service operators. We also interview desk research sources: industry associations; study groups; and third party observers from the trade and financial press.

Our objective is to engage in conversation with trade sources in which we exchange ideas and views on the industry, sharing our work-in-progress findings on supply/demand dynamics and potential. This dialogue enhances both parties’ understanding of the local market. The scope and reach of our trade survey also serves to eliminate bias (intentional and unintentional) from any single source.

Company analysis

At a global level, our company research combines our mix of industry interaction and use of secondary sources such as annual accounts, broker reports, financial press and databases. From a data perspective, the aim is to build “top-down” estimates of major players’ total global and regional sales.

At a country level, in line with local reporting requirements, we access annual accounts, national-specific company databases and local company websites. These are all invaluable sources as we build a view of each domestic player’s size and position within very specific categories of the industry.

Forecasts

Data projections and future performance analysis are key elements of Euromonitor International’s market intelligence. Working with historic trends of 15 years or more, a key aspect of our trade survey is to engage industry insider views of the next five years. Will volumes maintain their historic trend? Will price increases or falls of recent years continue, accelerate or slow down? Will increasing demand for one product cannibalise sales of another?

Forecasts represent many of the essential conclusions we have reached about the current state of the market, how it works and how it behaves under different macro and micro conditions. Our written analysis will state the assumptions and the trade opinion behind whether our predictions are optimistic or pessimistic, so that clients can use our statistical forecasts with confidence.

Data validation

All data is subjected to an exhaustive review process, at country, regional and global levels.

The interpretation and review of sources and data inputs forms a central part of the collaboration between industry teams and country researchers. Numbers are delivered to regional and global offices with an audit trail of sources and calculations to allow for a thorough evaluation of data sense and integrity.

Upon completion of the country review phase, data is then reviewed on a comparative basis at regional and then at a global level. Comparative checks are carried out on per capita consumption and spending levels, growth rates, patterns of category and subcategory breakdowns and distribution of sales by channel. Top-down estimates are reviewed against bottom-up regional and global market and company sales totals.

Where marked differences are seen between proximate country markets or ones at similar developmental levels, supplementary research is conducted in the relevant countries to confirm and/or amend those findings. This process ensures international comparability across the database, that consistent category and subcategory definitions have been used and that all data has been correctly tested. We make sure that possible discrepancies between different published sources have been reconciled and that our interpretation of opinion and expectation from each country’s trade sources has been applied to form a coherent international pattern.

Market analysis

Another integral part of all our research programmes is that all Euromonitor International data is accompanied by clear written analysis. From a research perspective, this explains and substantiates data findings. From a client perspective, this offers unique insights into local consumption trends, routes to market, brand preferences, channel dynamics and future trends.

Our country level analysis also provides invaluable input into the ability of our central industry specialist teams to marry local insights with strategic conclusions on the direction of the market regionally and globally.

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