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Traditional hand-rolled cheroots and betel quid unpackaged chewing tobacco remain widely popular. Rising incomes are encouraging many to trade up to cigarettes, where the entry of British American Tobacco and Japan Tobacco is resulting in surging domestic production. Cigarettes will continue to drive growth as incomes rise. However, growth will slow, with traditional tobacco's healthier image posing strong competition, partly due to graphic health warnings becoming mandatory for cigarettes.
This report analyses the market for tobacco in Myanmar. For the purposes of the study, the market has been defined as follows:
Cigars, Cigarillos and Smoking Tobacco
Smokeless Tobacco and Vapour Products
Explanations of terminology used in this report are as follows:
GBO refers to Global Brand Owner, which is the ultimate owner of a brand.
NBO refers to National Brand Owner, which is the company licensed to distribute a brand on behalf of a GBO. The NBO may be a subsidiary of a GBO or it may be a completely separate company.
Retail refers to sales of tobacco through retail outlets including supermarkets, hypermarkets, discounters, convenience stores, internet and other store and non-store channels, as well as sales of tobacco through bar-tobacconists and hotels/restaurants/bars.
Duty-paid retail sales are legitimate sales with tax applied to the final price.
Illicit trade refers to sales of duty-not-paid (or DNP) tobacco.
Market sizes are researched at category level, lower data levels are modelled.
Although cross-border and duty-free sales are considered legitimate, they are excluded from duty-paid sales.
Illicit trade (DNP) tobacco refers to contraband, counterfeit and unbranded tobacco, as well as illicit whites.
There is a strong tradition for tobacco use in Myanmar, with smoking hand-rolled cheroots and chewing betel quids (tobacco, areca and slaked lime wrapped in a betel leaf) viewed as traditional leisure activities. Myanmar has a long-established history of tobacco production. Many consumers remain unaware of the potential negative health impact of traditional tobacco use, particularly in rural areas. At the start of the review period, few consumers smoked cigarettes and most opted for traditional unpackaged tobacco. While cheroots are also available in a packaged form, these are excluded from the scope of this report due to being hand-rolled.
Tobacco usage patterns shifted dramatically during the review period. While most tobacco users continue to opt for unpackaged options or packaged cheroots, cigarettes are attracting a growing number of consumers. This was due to the entry of multinationals such as Japan Tobacco and British American Tobacco, with these companies launching production in Myanmar in 2013. Domestic cigarette production capacity soared towards the end of the review period, reaching an estimated five billion sticks in 2015. Cigarette prices became more affordable and the choice of brands and products available substantially widened. Simultaneously, disposable income levels and employment rose thanks to strong economic growth, resulting in an expanding mid-income group and diminishing poverty. More consumers thus became able to afford packaged tobacco.
With Myanmar becoming increasingly liberal and open to the outside world, many consumers are also interested in modern lifestyles and global brands. Many view cigarettes as more modern in comparison to traditional tobacco, while many young adults view cigarettes as aspirational and fashionable. The introduction of graphic health warnings for cigarettes however resulted in some switching back to smokeless tobacco, which is generally bought freshly prepared and unpackaged and thus cannot carry health warnings. This results in many regarding betel quids as a healthier alternative to cigarettes.
There is a strong tradition for female tobacco use in Myanmar, both in terms of cheroots and betel quids. Female smoking prevalence remains considerably lower in comparison to male smoking prevalence however. This reflects the fact that tobacco usage is often a social activity, with many men tending to smoke or chew tobacco while drinking. In contrast, women rarely drink, while many women also avoid going out at night. Beer stations, which are a popular location for male smoking, rarely have female clientele and men and women do not generally socialise in mixed groups. Rural women remain most likely to smoke or use chewing tobacco, although few smoke cigarettes. In major cities, young women are however becoming slightly more likely to smoke cigarettes or use other forms of tobacco that are seen as more fashionable.
Young adults are notably keen to explore new options in tobacco. Shisha pipes became increasingly fashionable in Yangon towards the end of the review period, being offered via upmarket bars and restaurants, with these attracting a growing number of affluent young women. Young high-income adults are also increasingly interested in vapour products, which are becoming more widely available in major cities.
The main government body focused on smoking reduction is the National Tobacco Control Program of the Department of Public Health. This was launched in 2000 and in turn launched the Tobacco Free School Program in 2003, while the School and Youth Health Project launched the Tobacco Free Youth Program in 2009. The government strengthened its anti-smoking campaigns in the last two years of the review period, in response to a rise in overall and youth smoking prevalence. NGOs are also stepping up their lobbying, with the People's Health Foundation calling for higher tobacco taxation in 2016. International anti-smoking organisations are also active in the country, such as SEATCA (Southeast Asia Tobacco Control Alliance) and Vital Strategies, an organisation focused on promoting global health. Beyond schools, anti-smoking campaigns remain minimal however, resulting in many consumers remaining unaware of the health risks associated with smoking.
There was strong new product development in the middle of the review period, with the re-entry of British American Tobacco and Japan Tobacco to Myanmar. Strong new product development continued at the end of the review period from Japan Tobacco. 2016 saw the company launch the premium Camel brand in the country, while also relaunching Mevius with more premium packaging and a distinctive arc design on packs. This relaunch also saw the introduction of a harder filter for the brand.
Not all brands are investing in innovation however. Long-term leader Red Ruby from Rothmans of Pall Mall focuses on offering its classic product, which continues to enjoy strong brand loyalty. British American Tobacco also confined its new product development to limited edition packs at the end of the review period. Innovation tends to be more significant for premium brands targeting sophisticated high-income urban consumers.
A widening range of international brands began to be offered towards the end of the review period. This was despite an ongoing ban on sales of imported tobacco other than via duty free outlets or hotels. Imported cigarettes are sold via a range of channels however, with little enforcement of this ban at retail level. The forecast period performance of tobacco and shares within cigarettes and cigars and cigarillos are likely to be shaped by legislation and enforcement in this area. If sales restrictions are enforced for imports at a retail level, with imported stock being seized from outlets by the authorities, sales of these products could be very badly impacted. Conversely, if import restrictions are lifted, sales would be likely to see stronger growth than currently forecast, although the leading cigarette players may find shares eroded due to growing competition.
Tobacco is expected to see value growth slow at constant 2016 prices to a 4% CAGR in the forecast period, down from a 12% CAGR in the review period. This will be due to ongoing strong competition from traditional tobacco alternatives. Many consumers view betel quids and cheroots as healthier in comparison to cigarettes, with this perception increasing as a result of the introduction of graphic health warnings on cigarette packs. With these warnings becoming mandatory for all packs in February 2017, this perception may intensify and limit the number of consumers trading up from traditional tobacco to cigarettes. If the government enforces the ban on sales of single sticks of cigarettes, this would also make these products less accessible to low-income consumers.
Cigarettes will however continue to drive overall sales growth for tobacco in the forecast period. These products will benefit from Myanmar's young adult population, with many regarding cigarettes as modern and aspirational products. Ongoing growth in disposable income levels and urbanisation will encourage more tobacco users to buy cigarettes. Niche product areas are also likely to see a good performance in the forecast period. Cigars and cigarillos will continue to benefit from a luxury image and attract more affluent and aspirational consumers as economic confidence continues to rise. Shisha pipe tobacco and vapour products are expected to benefit from a fashionable and exclusive image in the forecast period and could well attract a growing number of young high-income adults in major cities. These products are however likely to continue to see only minimal sales volumes in the forecast period due to high prices and a limited distribution reach.
Myanmar continues to have high levels of poverty, although income disparity is declining as the economy continues to grow. The country's mid-income group is rapidly expanding, particularly in Yangon, Mandalay and larger border towns. In July 2015, the World Bank thus reclassified Myanmar as a lower-mid-income country, while it was previously classified as a low-income nation. Mid-income consumers are largely driving growth for cigarettes, with rising incomes encouraging many to trade up from traditional unpackaged alternatives. When buying cigarettes, mid-income consumers tend to opt for economy or mid-priced brands produced within the country such as London or Red Ruby.
The use of cheroots and betel quids remains considerably more widespread in comparison to cigarette smoking however, particularly in rural areas. 65% of the population lived in rural areas at the end of the review period, while the majority of consumers face low-income levels. Many of these consumers view cigarettes as expensive and prefer lower-priced traditional alternatives, although rising income levels are boosting low-income demand for cigarettes. When buying cigarettes, low-income consumers are most likely to buy single sticks, which remain widely available despite a minimum legal pack size of 20 sticks.
High-income consumers are most likely to buy premium cigarette brands with a strong global reputation, such as domestically-produced Mevius or imported brands, while also showing the greatest interest in innovative new product development. With imports of cigarettes remaining illegal at the end of the review period, despite the widespread availability of imported brands via formal retail channels, these consumers are more likely to buy smuggled cigarettes than mid-income consumers. High-income consumers mainly live in the country's largest cities and thus have access to the widest range of brands and products. High-income consumers are also proving most adventurous in trying emerging forms of tobacco, such as shisha pipes and vapour products. The country's elite are also most likely to smoke cigars and cigarillos.
Smoking cigarettes is viewed in an aspirational light by many consumers, being seen as more modern in comparison to traditional cheroots or betel quids and also associated with wealth. This is particularly true of imported global brands, which carry considerably higher prices. Cigars and cigarillos are seen as status symbols and mainly smoked by high-income men, with these products often purchased to celebrate or to impress during business meetings. Vapour products and shisha pipes are viewed as fashionable and modern and are attracting a growing number of affluent young adults in major cities, while remaining tiny niches. Unpackaged tobacco, which continues to account for the bulk of overall tobacco consumption, is however viewed as more old fashioned and linked to low-income and rural consumers.
Myanmar has a young and growing population. The median age was 28 years in 2016, while the population grew by 4% during the review period as a whole. This young consumer base benefited sales of tobacco at the end of the review period, with many young consumers keen to move away from the more traditional unpackaged tobacco use of the older generation. Young consumers are also driving growth in emerging niches such as shisha pipe tobacco and vapour products.
Tobacco products are widely available in Myanmar in both urban and rural areas. In urban areas, street vendors are present on most busy streets and often peddle cigarettes to vehicles stuck in traffic. The number of street vendors in major cities soared towards the end of the review period as demand rose, although this channel lost share in 2016. This was due to a government clampdown on illegal imports over 2015-2016, with many street vendors suffering product shortages of imported brands as a result.
Street vendors accounted for a 7% volume share of cigarettes in 2016 while independent small grocers remained the leading channel with a 43% share. Independent small grocers equally often offer smuggled cigarettes but tend to have more reliable sources of supply in comparison to street vendors. Both street vendors and many independent small grocers continue to illegally offer cigarettes by the stick, as do many beer stations within bars, ensuring a strong appeal to low-income smokers. These channels also often offer products excluded from the scope of this report, such as hand-rolled cheroots and betel quids (traditional chewable tobacco mix).
Mid- to high-income consumers are more likely to buy cigarettes via modern grocery retailers, which offer a wider range of mid-priced and premium brands and only sell full packs of cigarettes. Convenience stores and hypermarkets accounted for 11% retail volume shares each in 2016, while forecourt retailers and supermarkets accounted for 7% shares each. Within modern grocery retailers, convenience stores are seeing the strongest performance as more of these outlets open.
Cigars and cigarillos are viewed as luxury products. These products are sold via upmarket tobacco specialists in major cities, with this channel accounting for 36% of volume sales in 2016. With sales of imported tobacco being banned other than via duty free outlets and hotels, these outlets must however rely on illicit channels and bribery in order to imported cigars and cigarillos. The bulk of sales occur legally via hotels/restaurants/bars however. Cigars and cigarillos are viewed as an occasional treat and often purchased on impulse, whether for celebrations or in order to impress while socialising with business associates.
Nascent vapour products and shisha tobacco have a very limited distribution presence. Vapour products are mainly sold via specialist vapour products retailers. The first of these opened in Yangon in early 2014, although numbers are rising and stores are opening in other major cities such as George Town and Mandalay. Shisha pipes are similarly available from a growing number of outlets, although distribution remains limited to upmarket restaurants and bars in major cities. Shisha pipe tobacco's fashionable and exclusive image is linked to this limited distribution and the expensive nature of the outlets that offer shisha pipes.
Internet retailing saw sales soar for cigarettes at the end of the review period, with triple-digit annual retail volume growth in both 2015 and 2016. This was largely thanks to the launch of Daily Mart in grocery internet retailing in January 2015, with this retailer's site offering cigarettes alongside groceries. This site also attracted many by accepting cash-on-delivery payments and offering deliveries within 24 hours of order. Internet retailing is currently legal for tobacco products, although this remains a very minor channel and accounted for less than 2% of retail volume sales of cigarettes in 2016.
Illicit trade is strong in cigarettes, accounting for an estimated 16% of total volume consumption in 2016. A legal ban on sales of imported cigarettes remained in place throughout the review period, other than via duty free outlets and hotels, although imported brands are widely available via all channels, including modern grocery retailers. The availability of illegally imported tobacco is facilitated by a generous duty free allowance of 400 cigarettes, 50 cigars or 250g of tobacco and by the country's porous borders, in addition to official corruption. Myanmar shares 6,000km of borders with five countries: China, Laos, India, Bangladesh and Thailand. Many cigarettes are smuggled from China, including a large volume of counterfeits. There is also strong smuggling from Myanmar to other countries, particularly India and Bangladesh.
Growth in illicit trade volume slowed dramatically towards the end of the review period, dropping from a review period CAGR of 8% to just 2% growth in 2016. This was due to stricter border controls. The government announced that it would not raid cigarette vendors however, with imported brands continuing to be sold via all distribution channels. However, distribution channels with more established supply networks such as independent small grocers and supermarkets were better able to access illicit imported cigarettes at the end of the review period, while street vendors were hit by supply shortages.
In July 2014, the Minister for Commerce promised that imports of tobacco products would be legalised, although no timeframe was given and this had not occurred by mid-2017. Those selling imported brands thus face the potential threat of an unexpected government clampdown. There is a similar ban on sales of imported alcoholic drinks. While this was not enforced by the government for much of the review period, retailers and wholesalers faced unannounced enforcement and the seizure of stock at points during the review period.
Demand for illicit tobacco mainly stems from low-income and high-income consumers. Low-income consumers are attracted by low-priced unbranded products, with these typically produced in the country. High-income consumers are attracted by imported global brands such as Marlboro, which are only available illegally within the country. The high cost of bribery results in high prices for these smuggled brands, making them unaffordable to all but affluent consumers. High-income consumers are also most likely to buy smuggled cigars and cigarillos via tobacco specialists.
The minimum legal purchasing age for tobacco was set at 18 years in 2006.
Many smokers do not start to smoke until their 20s, with an ASEAN Tobacco Control Atlas survey finding that the average age for starting smoking in the country was 20 years in 2014. This age is believed to have dropped in the last two years of the review period however, with a growing number of teenagers taking up smoking. This was due to a widening range of brands becoming available and a unit price decline at constant 2016 prices. In addition, many young adults view cigarettes as fashionable, particularly in comparison to traditional forms of unpackaged tobacco.
There is growing concern about underage smoking, with many vendors selling cigarettes to underage smokers. There is little enforcement of a ban on sales of tobacco within 100ft of schools or the ban on sales of single cigarette sticks, resulting in cigarettes being easily accessible to teenagers. The government thus announced in September 2016 that the 2006 Control of Smoking and Consumption of Tobacco Products Law would be fully enforced from March 2017.
This 2006 legislation is also in the process of being updated, with fines for violations being increased to reflect Myanmar's economic growth and rising incomes. Fines for smoking in a public place were thus set to be increased from March 2017.
Myanmar has a partial public smoking ban in place. Smoking in healthcare facilities, educational facilities, indoor workplaces, government building and restaurants is banned. However, many feel that the country's public smoking ban remains inadequate, with smoking continuing to be permitted in cafés and bars and on public transport.
The government announced new plans to ban smoking in public places in Yangon in June 2017. However, these plans appear more modest in comparison to existing smoking legislation. The government stated that it plans to establish 20 smoke-free zones in 20 years within the city, including sports arenas, public parks, playgrounds, schools, universities, bus stops, cinemas, markets, hospitals and pagodas. This followed on from an announcement in May 2017 that three major pagodas would be made no-smoking zones, although initially the authorities did not introduce fines. Instead, they sought to appeal to Buddhist visitors by displaying signs stating "Gain merit by not smoking or chewing betel quid." They are considering introducing fines in future if these signs are ignored.
There is no legal limit on tar levels in tobacco, although from September 2016 there was a ban on tobacco products using misleading terms on packaging such as "light" and "low." Smokers continue to show a preference for high tar cigarettes, which are viewed as offering a richer flavour.
Advertising for tobacco is restricted in Myanmar, with all forms of direct advertising banned other than point-of-sale advertising. TV, radio, print, billboard and online advertising is banned, as are free samples and non-tobacco items featuring tobacco brand names. Sponsorship of sports and cultural events is also banned. However, promotional discounts and CSR activities and associated publicity are permitted as is indirect advertising, such as featuring brands in TV shows and films.
Health warnings were required to be shown on packaged tobacco products throughout the review period, with unpackaged smokeless tobacco and cheroots exempt from this regulation. There was however no specification of warnings' required size, content, font, colour or placement. There was also no requirement for graphic warnings for most of the review period.
The government introduced legislation making graphic health warnings mandatory from 1 September 2016, while also introducing size requirements for health warnings. 10 graphic warnings with corresponding textual warnings were specified, with these being rotated annually. The graphic warning must cover 50% of the pack, while the textual warning must cover a further 25%. In addition, cigarettes must feature the warning "Smoking can severely harm your health" on the top of packs. The left-hand side of packs must carry the message "Cigarettes contain Nitrosamine, Benzopyrene and other compounds that can cause cancer. Stop smoking." The right side of the package must carry the message "Nicotine, tar and carbon monoxide contained in cigarettes can cause heart and lung failure. Stop smoking." Packaged cheroots and cigars must carry the textual warning "Smoking can cause you cancer. Stop smoking."
However, packs without graphic warnings continued to be available in Myanmar at the end of the review period. This was partly due the wide if illegal availability of imported cigarettes via retail outlets, with outlets continuing to offer packs without graphic warnings. In addition, on 28 September 2016 the government announced a 6-month amnesty for packs without graphic warnings, in order to enable players to sell or recall stock released from factories prior to the September deadline. This left packs carrying graphic warnings at a disadvantage, with many consumers switching to brands or packs that did not carry these warnings. From 1 February 2017, large graphic health warnings became mandatory for all packaged tobacco.
Taxation and duty levies
The government is increasing taxes on cigarettes, with April 2015 seeing an increase from 100% to 120%. This tax was imposed as excise duty and based on the ex-factory price for domestic production. The same rate of import duty was imposed on imports, with this based on CIF price. Hand-rolled cheroots, which are excluded from the scope of this report, also saw an increase in excise duty from 50% to 60%, as did tobacco, cigars and chewing tobacco. The chewing tobacco available in Myanmar takes the form of betel quids and is unpackaged, thus also being excluded from the scope of this report. Only betel quid outlets achieving over USD800 in annual sales must pay tax however, with most paying no tax on these sales.
Myanmar tobacco taxes became considerably more complex from 1 April 2016 however, with the government shifting from a flat rate of excise duty for domestic production to six different tax bands based on price. 20-stick packs with a price of MMK400 or less will be taxed at MMK60/pack, with excise duty rising through the price bands to reach MMK300/pack for 20-stick packs priced at MMK801 or more. Excise duty is however now based on retail price rather than the lower ex-factory price, limiting the advantage this new tax structure offered for mid-priced brands.
Import duty remained unchanged for cigarettes in 2016, at 120%. This theoretically resulted in domestic economy brands gaining a price advantage over imported products. However, there continues to be a legal ban on imports of cigarettes, despite imported brands being widely available, with these generally being imported illegally without paying tax. The high price of these imported brands is generally linked to the cost of bribery rather than to higher taxation.
Tax rates are expected to continue to increase in the forecast period. Tax changes introduced in Aril 2017 saw an increase of MMK1/stick for cigarette excise duty, with a pack priced at MMK400 or less thus being taxed at MMK80/pack. April 2017 also saw cheroots shift from a flat rate tax to a 2-tier system, with those priced at MMK10/stick or below being taxed at MMK0.5/stick and those priced above this rate being taxed at MMK1/stick. Cigars, pipe tobacco and chewing tobacco saw an increase from 60% to 80% excise duty, although most betel quid producers will remain unlikely to pay any tax.
All tobacco products also face 5% VAT, with this rate unchanged at the end of the review period.
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Chart 1 Tobacco in Myanmar in 2016 Chart 2 Myanmar Socioeconomic Trends
Taxation and duty levies
Chart 3 Tobacco: Modern Retailer: Convenience Store Chart 4 Tobacco: Cheroot Chart 5 Tobacco: Cheroot
Table 1 Sales of Tobacco by Category: Volume 2011-2016 Table 2 Sales of Tobacco by Category: Value 2011-2016 Table 3 Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2011-2016 Table 4 Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2011-2016 Table 5 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: Volume 2016-2021 Table 6 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: Volume 2016-2021 Table 7 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: Value 2016-2021 Table 8 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2016-2021 Table 9 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2016-2021
Chart 6 Cigarettes: Modern Retailer: Independent Small Grocer Chart 7 Cigarettes: Modern Retailer: Independent Small Grocer Chart 8 Cigarettes: Modern Retailer: Independent Small Grocer
Table 10 Sales of Cigarettes: Volume 2011-2016 Table 11 Sales of Cigarettes by Category: Value 2011-2016 Table 12 Sales of Cigarettes: % Volume Growth 2011-2016 Table 13 Sales of Cigarettes by Category: % Value Growth 2011-2016 Table 14 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes: Volume 2016-2021 Table 15 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Category: Value 2016-2021 Table 16 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes: % Volume Growth 2016-2021 Table 17 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Category: % Value Growth 2016-2021 Table 18 NBO Company Shares of Cigarettes: % Volume 2012-2016 Table 19 LBN Brand Shares of Cigarettes: % Volume 2013-2016 Table 20 Sales of Cigarettes by Distribution Format: % Volume 2011-2016 Summary 1 Cigarettes Pricing
CIGARS, CIGARILLOS AND SMOKING TOBACCO
Chart 9 Cigarillos: Modern Retailer: Independent Small Grocer
Table 21 Sales of Cigars, Cigarillos and Smoking Tobacco by Category: Volume 2011-2016 Table 22 Sales of Cigars, Cigarillos and Smoking Tobacco by Category: Value 2011-2016 Table 23 Sales of Cigars, Cigarillos and Smoking Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2011-2016 Table 24 Sales of Cigars, Cigarillos and Smoking Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2011-2016 Table 25 Forecast Sales of Cigars, Cigarillos and Smoking Tobacco by Category: Volume 2016-2021 Table 26 Forecast Sales of Cigars, Cigarillos and Smoking Tobacco by Category: Value 2016-2021 Table 27 Forecast Sales of Cigars, Cigarillos and Smoking Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2016-2021 Table 28 Forecast Sales of Cigars, Cigarillos and Smoking Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2016-2021 Table 29 NBO Company Shares of Cigars and Cigarillos: % Volume 2012-2016 Table 30 LBN Brand Shares of Cigars and Cigarillos: % Volume 2013-2016 Table 31 Distribution of Cigars and Cigarillos by Format: % Volume 2011-2016 Summary 2 Cigars, Cigarillos and Smoking Tobacco Pricing
SMOKELESS TOBACCO AND VAPOUR PRODUCTS
Chart 10 Vapour Products: Modern Retailer: Independent Small Grocer Chart 11 Vapour Products: Modern Retailer: Independent Small Grocer
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