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Country Report

Tobacco in New Zealand

Aug 2012

Price: US$1,900

About this Report

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

New Zealand consumers feel the pressure from rising excise taxes

Retail volume sales for cigarettes declined in 2011 as a result of further excise tax increases during the year. Excise taxes increased by an average of 10% during January 2011. Furthermore, smoking tobacco retail volume sales witnessed a significant decline in 2011 as the unit price of an RYO cigarette gradually fell in line with manufactured cigarettes. Despite higher than average unit prices, cigar and cigarillo retail volume sales increased during 2011. The luxury status of cigars resulted in positive growth for the category. The New Zealand government began a campaign of non-inflation adjustment excise tax increases during April 2010, and this strategy continued to make smoking in New Zealand less and less affordable for consumers during 2011. Consequently, the number of smokers decreased as unit prices surged upwards.

Tobacco legislation continues to develop during 2011

The Smoke-free Environments (Controls and Enforcement) Amendment Act was passed in July 2011 by the New Zealand Parliament. The amendments in the Act prevented wholesalers and retailers from displaying tobacco products in-store. The changes applied to all types of retail outlets (including internet retailing, vending, restaurants and bars); those that supply tobacco in addition to other products as well as tobacco specialists. Under the Act consumers may be provided with tobacco product details, in printed, written or spoken words only. The retail display ban begins in July 2012. The New Zealand government is also considering adopting plain packaging legislation.

Grocery retailers controls cigarette sales, while tobacco specialists focuses on cigars

During 2011, grocery retailers accounted for the majority share of cigarette volume sales in New Zealand. Small grocery retailers, such as convenience stores, independent small grocers and forecourt retailers dominated. However, supermarkets, tobacco specialists and newsagent-tobacconists/kiosks were also important cigarette distribution channels during 2011. Conversely, tobacco specialists accounted for a large share of retail volume sales for cigars during 2011, while convenience stores ranked second but accounted for more limited share.

Big four tobacco companies dominate in New Zealand

British American Tobacco (New Zealand) Ltd, Imperial Tobacco New Zealand Ltd, Philip Morris (New Zealand) Ltd and Scandinavian Tobacco Group A/S dominated tobacco in New Zealand during 2011. Within cigarettes, British American Tobacco (New Zealand) Ltd was the leading player, accounting for the majority share of retail volume sales. The company owns the popular Pall Mall and Holiday brands in New Zealand. Imperial Tobacco New Zealand Ltd was the second ranked player in cigarettes and RYO tobacco in 2011. Scandinavian Tobacco Group A/S held the top position in cigars and cigarillos, accounting for half of the retail volume sales. The newly-merged entity divested the popular Willem II brand in 2010, although it retained Schimmelpenninck, White Owl and Café Crème.

Volume declines expected over the forecast period

Retail volume sales for cigarettes are expected to decline over the forecast period. This is expected due to the retail display ban that will come into force during July 2012 as well as continuous public health and anti-smoking campaigns over the forecast period. The New Zealand government has made a commitment to becoming smoke-free by 2025; therefore volume sales and the number of smokers is expected decrease over the forecast period.


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Overview

Discover the latest market trends and uncover sources of future market growth for the Tobacco industry in New Zealand with research from Euromonitor's team of in-country analysts.

Find hidden opportunities in the most current research data available, understand competitive threats with our detailed market analysis, and plan your corporate strategy with our expert qualitative analysis and growth projections.

If you're in the Tobacco industry in New Zealand, our research will save you time and money while empowering you to make informed, profitable decisions.

When you purchase this report, you also get the data and the content from these category reports in New Zealand for free:

The Tobacco in New Zealand market research report includes:

  • Analysis of key supply-side and demand trends
  • Detailed segmentation of international and local products
  • Historic volumes and values, company and brand market shares
  • Five year forecasts of market trends and market growth
  • Production, imports by origin, exports by destination
  • Robust and transparent market research methodology, conducted in-country

Our market research reports answer questions such as:

  • What is the market size of Tobacco in New Zealand?
  • What are the major brands in New Zealand?
  • Which sector of the tobacco products market is the largest by value sales in New Zealand?
  • Which sector of the tobacco products market has been growing the fastest, by volume and value, in New Zealand?
  • Which sector is the most heavily taxed in New Zealand?
  • Which companies dominate in the total tobacco market in New Zealand in terms of market share?
  • What is the distribution channel split for the tobacco products market in New Zealand?

Why buy this report?

  • Gain competitive intelligence about market leaders
  • Track key industry trends, opportunities and threats
  • Inform your marketing, brand, strategy and market development, sales and supply functions

This industry report originates from Passport, our Tobacco market research database.

Table of Contents

Table of Contents

Tobacco in New Zealand - Industry Overview

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

New Zealand consumers feel the pressure from rising excise taxes

Tobacco legislation continues to develop during 2011

Grocery retailers controls cigarette sales, while tobacco specialists focuses on cigars

Big four tobacco companies dominate in New Zealand

Volume declines expected over the forecast period

OPERATING ENVIRONMENT

LEGISLATION

  • Summary 1 Legislation 2011: At a Glance

Country-specific legislation:

Minimum legal smoking age

Smoking prevalence

  • Table 1 Smoking Prevalence in Adult Population 2006-2011
  • Table 2 Number of Smokers by Gender 2006-2011

Tar levels

Health warnings

Advertising & sponsorship

Point-of-sale display bans

Smoking in public places

Low ignition propensity (LIP) regulation

‘Reduced harm’

Electronic cigarettes

Litigation

Death by cause

  • Table 3 Death by Cause 2007-2011

TAXATION AND PRICING

Duty paid packet marks

Taxation rates

  • Table 4 Cigarettes: Taxation and Duty Levies 2006-2011
  • Table 5 Cigars and Cigarillos: Taxation and Duty Levies 2006-2011
  • Table 6 Smoking Tobacco (RYO and Pipe): Taxation and Duty Levies 2006-2011

Average cigarette pack price breakdown

  • Table 7 Average Cigarette Pack Price Breakdown: Brand Examples

PRODUCTION/IMPORTS/EXPORTS

Illicit trade in cigarettes

New Zealand-grown illicit tobacco

MARKET INDICATORS

  • Table 8 Illicit Trade Estimate of Cigarettes by Volume 2006-2011

MARKET DATA

  • Table 9 Sales of Tobacco by Category: Volume 2006-2011
  • Table 10 Sales of Tobacco by Category: Value 2006-2011
  • Table 11 Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 12 Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 13 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: Volume 2011-2016
  • Table 14 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: Value 2011-2016
  • Table 15 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2011-2016
  • Table 16 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2011-2016

DEFINITIONS

SOURCES

  • Summary 2 Research Sources

Tobacco in New Zealand - Company Profiles

British American Tobacco (New Zealand) Ltd in Tobacco (New Zealand)

STRATEGIC DIRECTION

KEY FACTS

COMPANY BACKGROUND

PRODUCTION

COMPETITIVE POSITIONING

  • Summary 5 British American Tobacco (New Zealand) Ltd: Competitive Position 2011

Imperial Tobacco New Zealand Ltd in Tobacco (New Zealand)

STRATEGIC DIRECTION

KEY FACTS

COMPANY BACKGROUND

PRODUCTION

  • Summary 8 Imperial Tobacco New Zealand Ltd: Capacity Statistics 2003-2007

COMPETITIVE POSITIONING

  • Summary 9 Imperial Tobacco New Zealand Ltd: Competitive Position 2011

Philip Morris (New Zealand) Ltd in Tobacco (New Zealand)

STRATEGIC DIRECTION

KEY FACTS

COMPANY BACKGROUND

PRODUCTION

COMPETITIVE POSITIONING

  • Summary 12 Philip Morris (New Zealand) Ltd: Competitive Position 2011

Scandinavian Tobacco Group A/S in Tobacco (New Zealand)

STRATEGIC DIRECTION

KEY FACTS

COMPANY BACKGROUND

PRODUCTION

COMPETITIVE POSITIONING

  • Summary 15 Scandinavian Tobacco Group A/S: Competitive Position 2011

Cigarettes in New Zealand - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • Cigarettes represented the largest category within tobacco in New Zealand. During 2011, cigarettes accounted for 67% share of total tobacco current value sales. Ongoing educational and legislative efforts resulted in a decline in the number of smokers over the review period. In fact the number of smokers in New Zealand decreased from 695,120 in 2006 to 680,050 in 2011. Consequently, these trends have had a negative impact on cigarette volume sales in New Zealand.

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

  • Cigarettes in New Zealand is dominated by three multinational companies, British American Tobacco (New Zealand) Ltd, Imperial Tobacco New Zealand Ltd and Philip Morris (New Zealand) Ltd. There are no domestic players.

NEW PRODUCT DEVELOPMENTS

  • Summary 16 Cigarettes - New Product Launches

DISTRIBUTION

PROSPECTS

  • Retail volume sales of cigarettes are expected to decline by a CAGR of 2% over the forecast period. This will follow the pattern of a declining number of smokers in New Zealand. Constant value sales are also expected to decrease by a CAGR of 2%. This suggests that the effect of excise tax increases between 2010 and 2012 will be dampened by decreasing volume sales as the government continues to push anti-smoking initiatives. It is expected that volume sales will fall to 2 billion sticks and constant value sales fall to NZ$1.3 billion.

CATEGORY BACKGROUND

Cigarettes: price bands

  • Summary 17 Cigarette Price Band Definitions

Cigarettes: menthol/standard

Flavour threads and capsule filters

Cigarettes: filter/non-filter

Cigarettes: carbon/standard filter

Cigarettes: filter length

Cigarettes: regular vs slim vs superslim

Cigarettes: pack size

Cigarettes: pack type

CATEGORY DATA

  • Table 17 Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: Volume 2006-2011
  • Table 18 Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: Value 2006-2011
  • Table 19 Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: % Volume Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 20 Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: % Value Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 21 Sales of Cigarettes by Price Band: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 22 Sales of Cigarettes by Standard/Menthol: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 23 Sales of Cigarettes by Tobacco Type: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 24 Sales of Cigarettes by Filter Vs Non-filter: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 25 Sales of Filter Cigarettes by Carbon Vs Non-carbon: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 26 Sales of Cigarettes by Length: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 27 Sales of Cigarettes by Regular/Slim/Superslim: % Volume Breakdown 2007-2011
  • Table 28 Sales of Cigarettes by Pack Size: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 29 Sales of Cigarettes by Pack Type: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 30 Cigarettes Company Shares 2007-2011
  • Table 31 Cigarettes Brand Shares 2008-2011
  • Table 32 Sales of Cigarettes by Distribution Format: % Analysis 2006-2011
  • Table 33 Cigarettes: Production, Imports and Exports: Total Volume 2006-2011
  • Table 34 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: Volume 2011-2016
  • Table 35 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: Value 2011-2016
  • Table 36 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: % Volume Growth 2011-2016
  • Table 37 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: % Value Growth 2011-2016
  • Table 38 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Price Band: % Volume Breakdown 2011-2016
  • Table 39 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Standard/Menthol: % Volume Breakdown 2011-2016
  • Table 40 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tobacco Type: % Volume Breakdown 2011-2016
  • Table 41 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Filter Vs Non-filter: % Volume Breakdown 2011-2016
  • Table 42 Forecast Sales of Filter Cigarettes by Carbon Vs Non-carbon: % Volume Breakdown 2011-2016
  • Table 43 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Length: % Volume Breakdown 2011-2016
  • Table 44 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Regular/Slim/Superslim: % Volume Breakdown 2011-2016
  • Table 45 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Pack Size: % Volume Breakdown 2011-2016
  • Table 46 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Pack Type: % Volume Breakdown 2011-2016

Cigars in New Zealand - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • Cigars are considered a premium product in New Zealand with consumption being less frequent than cigarillos. Cigars are usually consumed by cigar enthusiasts who are typically male, have a mid to high disposable income and are in an older age bracket. Consumers consider quality the major driver in their purchasing decisions. Conversely, cigarillos are consumed more frequently and form a substitute to cigarettes. Cigarillos have a lower unit price than cigars, but are typically more expensive than cigarettes.

HAND-MADE VERSUS MACHINE MANUFACTURED SPLITS

  • Table 47 Sales of Cigars by Handmade vs Machine-made: % Volume/Value Breakdown 2007-2011

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

  • The major players within cigars and cigarillos in New Zealand during 2011 included Scandinavian Tobacco Group A/S, Stuart Alexander & Co Pty Ltd and Corporación Habanos SA. Smaller players were also present, such as Johann Wilhelm Von Eicken GmbH, Villiger Söhne AG, British American Tobacco (New Zealand) Ltd, Imperial Tobacco New Zealand Ltd and Agio Cigars.

NEW PRODUCT DEVELOPMENTS

DISTRIBUTION

PROSPECTS

  • During the forecast period, volume sales for cigars overall are expected to marginally decline. Excise tax increases in 2012 and the retail display ban are expected to cripple growth forecasts. This is in contrast to the positive 1% retail volume CAGR of the review period. This suggests that demand for cigars and cigarillos, despite being positive in 2011, will begin to decline over the forecast period as consumers react to display bans and higher unit prices as a result of excise tax increases.

CATEGORY DATA

  • Table 48 Sales of Cigars by Category: Volume 2006-2011
  • Table 49 Sales of Cigars by Category: Value 2006-2011
  • Table 50 Sales of Cigars by Category: % Volume Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 51 Sales of Cigars by Category: % Value Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 52 Sales of Cigars by Handmade vs Machine-manufactured: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 53 Sales of Cigars by Handmade vs Machine-manufactured: % Value Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 54 Company Shares of Cigars Excluding Cigarillos 2007-2011
  • Table 55 Brand Shares of Cigars Excluding Cigarillos 2008-2011
  • Table 56 Company Shares of Cigarillos 2007-2011
  • Table 57 Brand Shares of Cigarillos 2008-2011
  • Table 58 Sales of Cigars by Distribution Format: % Analysis 2006-2011
  • Table 59 Forecast Sales of Cigars by Category: Volume 2011-2016
  • Table 60 Forecast Sales of Cigars by Category: Value 2011-2016
  • Table 61 Forecast Sales of Cigars by Category: % Volume Growth 2011-2016
  • Table 62 Forecast Sales of Cigars by Category: % Value Growth 2011-2016

Smokeless Tobacco in New Zealand - Category Analysis

TRENDS

  • The sale of smokeless tobacco was prohibited in New Zealand in 2009. No changes to this regulation are expected over the forecast period.

Smoking Tobacco in New Zealand - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • Pipe smoking is not a popular activity in New Zealand, therefore pipe tobacco accounted for a mere 1% share of smoking tobacco volume sales during 2011. Typical pipe tobacco consumers are older males with mid to high disposable incomes.

The Role and Effect of Cannabis/Marijuana

DISTRIBUTION

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

  • There were three major players within smoking tobacco during 2011 in New Zealand, including British American Tobacco (New Zealand) Ltd, Imperial Tobacco New Zealand Ltd and Scandinavian Tobacco Group A/S. All three of these companies are multinational players, meaning that smoking tobacco in New Zealand during 2011 was dominated by foreign companies, with no major domestic activity.

NEW PRODUCT DEVELOPMENTS

PROSPECTS

  • Proposed excise tax increased in January 2012 and retail display bans are expected to have a negative impact on volume growth for smoking tobacco over the forecast period. Therefore, volume sales for smoking tobacco are expected to decrease by 2% over the forecast period. The negative forecast volume growth is lower than the -5% review period CAGR. During the latter half of the review period, excise tax increases for smoking tobacco increased by 25%, a much higher increase when compared with cigarettes, cigars and cigarillos. Consequently, forecast volume growth is expected to be negative, but not as dramatic as seen during the review period.

CATEGORY DATA

  • Table 63 Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: Volume 2006-2011
  • Table 64 Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: Value 2006-2011
  • Table 65 Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 66 Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 67 Company Shares of RYO Tobacco 2007-2011
  • Table 68 Brand Shares of RYO Tobacco 2008-2011
  • Table 69 Company Shares of Pipe Tobacco 2007-2011
  • Table 70 Brand Shares of Pipe Tobacco 2008-2011
  • Table 71 Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Distribution Format: % Analysis 2006-2011
  • Table 72 Forecast Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: Volume 2011-2016
  • Table 73 Forecast Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: Value 2011-2016
  • Table 74 Forecast Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2011-2016
  • Table 75 Forecast Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2011-2016

Segmentation

Segmentation

This market research report includes the following:

  • Tobacco
    • Cigarettes
      • High Tar Cigarettes
      • Mid Tar Cigarettes
      • Low Tar Cigarettes
      • Ultra Low Tar Cigarettes
    • Cigars
      • Cigars Excluding Cigarillos
        • Large Cigars
        • Standard Cigars
        • Small Cigars
      • Cigarillos
    • Smoking Tobacco
      • RYO Tobacco
      • Pipe Tobacco
    • Smokeless Tobacco
      • Chewing Tobacco
        • Asian-Style Chewing Tobacco
        • US-Style Chewing Tobacco
        • Other Chewing Tobacco
      • Snuff
        • Moist Snuff
          • US-Style Moist Snuff ('Dip')
            • Loose US-Style Moist Snuff
            • Portion US-Style Moist Snuff
          • Swedish-Style Snus
            • Loose Swedish-Style Snus
            • Portion Swedish-Style Snus
          • Asian Style Creamy Snuff
        • Dry Snuff
        • Hard Snuff
    • Cigarettes Including RYO Stick Equivalent
      • High Tar Cigarettes
      • Mid Tar Cigarettes
      • Low Tar Cigarettes
      • Ultra Low Tar Cigarettes
      • RYO Cigarettes

Statistics Included

Statistics Included

For each category and subcategory you will receive the following data in Excel format:

From Passport

  • Market sizes
  • Company shares
  • Brand shares
  • Distribution
  • Analysis by type
  • Cigarettes by blend
  • Cigarettes by carbon filter/non-carbon filter
  • Cigarettes by filtered/unfiltered
  • Cigarettes by length
  • Cigarettes by pack size
  • Cigarettes by pack type
  • Cigarettes by price band
  • Cigarettes by regular/slim/superslim
  • Cigarettes by standard/menthol
  • Illicit trade penetration
  • Pricing
  • Products by ingredient
  • Products by ingredient
  • Smoking population - number of adult smokers
  • Smoking prevalence - % of adult population
  • Taxation
  • Trade statistics - volume

Market size details:

  • Retail volume
  • Retail volume % growth
  • Retail volume per capita
  • Retail value retail selling price % growth
  • Retail value retail selling price local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Retail value retail selling price per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Illicit trade volume
  • Illicit trade volume % growth
  • Illicit trade volume per capita
  • Retail volume (sticks)
  • Retail volume (sticks) % growth
  • Retail volume (sticks) per capita
  • Retail plus illicit trade
  • Retail plus illicit trade % growth
  • Retail plus illicit trade per capita

Methodology

Methodology

Global insight and local knowledge

With 40 years’ experience of developed and emerging markets, Euromonitor International’s research method is built on a unique combination of specialist industry knowledge and in-country research expertise.

This approach is what enables us to achieve our goal of building a market consensus view of size, shape and trends across the full distribution universe of each category. We factor in whichever channels are relevant, from large-scale grocery to direct sellers, from discount stores to local mom-and-pop outlets.

Industry specialists

Each industry we cover is managed by an Industry Manager and team of Industry Analysts who research and report on their specialist categories all year round.

Our collaborative approach to research means that these industry teams are in constant dialogue with industry players and opinion formers. The planning of our research programmes reflects latest market trends and industry events. In completing each update project, this provides invaluable input to the testing, review and finalisation of our data.

The specialist in-house teams bring together findings from all stages of the annual research process. They work closely with in-country analysts, assess and challenge data and exercise final editorial control over the publication of new data and analysis.

Country and regional analysts

Our in-country analyst network is managed by country and regional analysts in our offices around the world. Working closely with each in-country team, the regional research management team ensures that all country researchers are well schooled in best practices, from the information collected in store checks, to the dialogue we build in trade surveys. Our country analysts ensure that national reports explain the data trends and provide clear insights into the local market’s dynamics.

In-country research network

To deliver fresh insights every year in countries all around the world, we believe the strongest approach is to use analysts on the ground. They bring fluency in local language, physical proximity to the best sources, an ability to engage directly with local industry contacts, and an awareness of how the products and services we study are advertised, sold and consumed. These are essential parts of our ability to report incisively on these markets.

Research Methodology

Our research methods

Each Euromonitor International industry report is based on a core set of research techniques:

Desk research

With industry events, corporate activity, trends and new product introductions tracked year round by our industry team, desk research provides a starting point for the in-country research programme. Our in-country researchers will access the following sources:

  • National statistics offices governmental and official sources
  • National and international trade press
  • National and international trade associations
  • Industry study groups and other semi-official sources
  • Company financials and annual reports
  • Broker reports
  • Online databases
  • The financial, business and mainstream press

Accessing sources is only the first step. The ability to interpret and reconcile often conflicting information across multiple sources is a key aspect of the added value we provide.

Store checks

Store checks are an integral part of our methods for product industries. Carried out on the ground across a relevant mix of channels, the information gained provides first-hand insights into the products we are researching, specifically:

  • Place: We track products in all relevant channels, selective and mass, store and non-store
  • Product: What are innovations in products, pack sizes and formats?
  • Price: What are brand price variations across channels, how do private label’s prices compare to those of branded goods?
  • Promotion: What are marketing and merchandising trends, offers, discounts and tie-ins?

Findings are cross-referenced with brand share data analysis. The results, combined with the findings of desk research, provide a strong basis for identifying key areas of questioning to take forward into our trade survey.

Trade survey

Interaction with global players at corporate HQ and regional levels is complemented by unique local data and insights from our in-country trade surveys around the world. Through the high profile of the Euromonitor International brand, we are able to talk directly to a wide range of sources and therefore inform our analysis with the knowledge and opinions of the leading operators in the market.

Trade surveys allow us to:

  • Fill gaps in available published data per company
  • Generate a consensus view of the size, structure and strategic direction of the category
  • Access year-in-progress data where published sources are out of date
  • Evaluate the experts’ views on current trends and market developments

In building our composite industry view, we engage with a variety of personnel in key players at all points of the supply chain: materials suppliers, manufacturers, distributors, retailers and service operators. We also interview desk research sources: industry associations; study groups; and third party observers from the trade and financial press.

Our objective is to engage in conversation with trade sources in which we exchange ideas and views on the industry, sharing our work-in-progress findings on supply/demand dynamics and potential. This dialogue enhances both parties’ understanding of the local market. The scope and reach of our trade survey also serves to eliminate bias (intentional and unintentional) from any single source.

Company analysis

At a global level, our company research combines our mix of industry interaction and use of secondary sources such as annual accounts, broker reports, financial press and databases. From a data perspective, the aim is to build “top-down” estimates of major players’ total global and regional sales.

At a country level, in line with local reporting requirements, we access annual accounts, national-specific company databases and local company websites. These are all invaluable sources as we build a view of each domestic player’s size and position within very specific categories of the industry.

Forecasts

Data projections and future performance analysis are key elements of Euromonitor International’s market intelligence. Working with historic trends of 15 years or more, a key aspect of our trade survey is to engage industry insider views of the next five years. Will volumes maintain their historic trend? Will price increases or falls of recent years continue, accelerate or slow down? Will increasing demand for one product cannibalise sales of another?

Forecasts represent many of the essential conclusions we have reached about the current state of the market, how it works and how it behaves under different macro and micro conditions. Our written analysis will state the assumptions and the trade opinion behind whether our predictions are optimistic or pessimistic, so that clients can use our statistical forecasts with confidence.

Data validation

All data is subjected to an exhaustive review process, at country, regional and global levels.

The interpretation and review of sources and data inputs forms a central part of the collaboration between industry teams and country researchers. Numbers are delivered to regional and global offices with an audit trail of sources and calculations to allow for a thorough evaluation of data sense and integrity.

Upon completion of the country review phase, data is then reviewed on a comparative basis at regional and then at a global level. Comparative checks are carried out on per capita consumption and spending levels, growth rates, patterns of category and subcategory breakdowns and distribution of sales by channel. Top-down estimates are reviewed against bottom-up regional and global market and company sales totals.

Where marked differences are seen between proximate country markets or ones at similar developmental levels, supplementary research is conducted in the relevant countries to confirm and/or amend those findings. This process ensures international comparability across the database, that consistent category and subcategory definitions have been used and that all data has been correctly tested. We make sure that possible discrepancies between different published sources have been reconciled and that our interpretation of opinion and expectation from each country’s trade sources has been applied to form a coherent international pattern.

Market analysis

Another integral part of all our research programmes is that all Euromonitor International data is accompanied by clear written analysis. From a research perspective, this explains and substantiates data findings. From a client perspective, this offers unique insights into local consumption trends, routes to market, brand preferences, channel dynamics and future trends.

Our country level analysis also provides invaluable input into the ability of our central industry specialist teams to marry local insights with strategic conclusions on the direction of the market regionally and globally.

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