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Country Report

Tobacco in New Zealand

Sep 2010

Price: $1,900

About this Report

About this Report

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Overview

Discover the latest market trends and uncover sources of future market growth for the Tobacco industry in New Zealand with research from Euromonitor's team of in-country analysts.

Find hidden opportunities in the most current research data available, understand competitive threats with our detailed market analysis, and plan your corporate strategy with our expert qualitative analysis and growth projections.

If you're in the Tobacco industry in New Zealand, our research will save you time and money while empowering you to make informed, profitable decisions.

When you purchase this report, you also get the data and the content from these category reports in New Zealand for free:

The Tobacco in New Zealand market research report includes:

  • Analysis of key supply-side and demand trends
  • Detailed segmentation of international and local products
  • Historic volumes and values, company and brand market shares
  • Five year forecasts of market trends and market growth
  • Production, imports by origin, exports by destination
  • Robust and transparent market research methodology, conducted in-country

Our market research reports answer questions such as:

  • What is the market size of Tobacco in New Zealand?
  • What are the major brands in New Zealand?
  • Which sector of the tobacco products market is the largest by value sales in New Zealand?
  • Which sector of the tobacco products market has been growing the fastest, by volume and value, in New Zealand?
  • Which sector is the most heavily taxed in New Zealand?
  • Which companies dominate in the total tobacco market in New Zealand in terms of market share?
  • What is the distribution channel split for the tobacco products market in New Zealand?

Why buy this report?

  • Gain competitive intelligence about market leaders
  • Track key industry trends, opportunities and threats
  • Inform your marketing, brand, strategy and market development, sales and supply functions

This industry report originates from Passport, our Tobacco market research database.

Sample Analysis

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Tobacco declines on the back of a shrinking smoking population

In 2009, as a result of a decline in the number of smokers, cigarettes and smoking tobacco sales likewise dropped in volume terms in 2009. Cigars, while registering growth in 2009 contrary to cigarettes and smoking tobacco, nonetheless saw its growth slow in 2009 due in part to the dismal economy. Notably, cigarettes was the only category within tobacco clocking declines in both volume and current value sales. Smoking tobacco and cigars continued to see positive current value sales performance in 2009. Within cigarettes, high tar cigarettes continued to dominate cigarettes volume sales in 2009, followed by mid tar cigarettes, low tar cigarettes and ultra low tar cigarettes. Ultra low tar cigarettes registered the strongest growth, albeit from a small sales base, as a result of the perception that such cigarettes are less harmful to health.

The number of smokers continues to decline

In 2009, the prevalence and number of smokers continued to decline in New Zealand as a result of constant price increases and extensive anti-smoking campaigns conducted by the government and health organisations. The decline was seen more amongst females than males. In terms of age, the prevalence of young and old people showed a substantial decline; however, smoking amongst adults continues to be significant. Within different racial groups, Maori and Pacific citizens have the highest number of smokers, while Asians have the least; however, the Maori and Pacific groups have recorded the largest decline in prevalence across all racial groups in recent years.

British American Tobacco (New Zealand) Ltd continues to dominate

British American Tobacco (New Zealand) Ltd continued to dominate many tobacco categories in New Zealand in 2009. It has the most comprehensive product portfolio of all the players and distributes popular brands in almost all categories. The company distributes six of the 10 best-selling cigarettes brands in New Zealand, including Holiday, Pall Mall, Benson & Hedges and Winfield. The company’s lead is followed by Imperial Tobacco New Zealand Ltd, which primarily focuses on economy cigarettes brands such as Horizon and John Brandon. Philip Morris (New Zealand) Ltd is the third leading player and it is in the process of building a strong presence in cigarettes through its economy Longbeach brand and Marlboro in the premium segment. Swedish Match (New Zealand) Ltd leads cigars, followed by British American Tobacco (New Zealand) Ltd. In smoking tobacco, British American Tobacco (New Zealand) Ltd is the leading player, followed by Imperial Tobacco New Zealand Ltd.

Further attacks on tobacco displays

New Zealand’s tobacco industry is one of the most strictly-regulated in the world. All forms of tobacco advertising are completely prohibited in the country. Tobacco displays and shelf space in retailers are currently the only ways to reach consumers. This last resort is under further attack from the government, and in 2010 the Ministry of Health released a proposal to entirely remove tobacco displays from all retailers. The Ministry of Health is seeking further consultations from organisations and individuals who had previously lodged their opinions through submissions. If the proposal is accepted and all tobacco displays are removed, then the volume and value sales of tobacco manufacturers and retailers will suffer as a result.

Decline in the number of smokers will further slow growth

Over the forecast period, the number of smokers will decline further due to predicted price increases, stricter regulations on tobacco displays and extensive anti-smoking campaigns. Review period trends are projected to continue in the forecast period with only cigars projected to post positive growth in the next five years. Cigars’ niche appeal stands it in good stead in terms of growth but sales is expected to pale in comparison to cigarettes and remain small.

Table of Contents

Table of Contents

Tobacco in New Zealand - Industry Overview

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Tobacco declines on the back of a shrinking smoking population

The number of smokers continues to decline

British American Tobacco (New Zealand) Ltd continues to dominate

Further attacks on tobacco displays

Decline in the number of smokers will further slow growth

OPERATING ENVIRONMENT

Legislative overview/FCTC ratification

  • Summary 1 Legislation Summary at a Glance

Country-specific legislation:

Minimum legal smoking age

Smoking Prevalence

  • Table 1 Smoking Prevalence in Adult Population 2004-2009
  • Table 2 Number of Smokers by Gender 2004-2009

Tar levels

Health warnings

Advertising and Sponsorship

Smoking in public places

Low Ignition Propensity (LIP) regulation

Litigation

Death by Cause

  • Table 3 Death by Cause 2004-2009

TAXATION AND PRICING

Duty paid packet marks

Taxation rates

  • Table 4 Taxation and Duty Levies for Cigarettes
  • Table 5 Taxation and Duty Levies for Other Tobacco Products

Average cigarette pack price breakdown

  • Table 6 Average Cigarette Pack Price Breakdown: Brand Examples 2009

PRODUCTION/IMPORTS/EXPORTS

  • Table 7 Production/Imports/Exports 2004-2009

Illicit trade in cigarettes

MARKET INDICATORS

MARKET DATA

DEFINITIONS

  • Summary 2 Research Sources

Tobacco in New Zealand - Company Profiles

British American Tobacco (New Zealand) Ltd - Tobacco - New Zealand

STRATEGIC DIRECTION

KEY FACTS

COMPANY BACKGROUND

PRODUCTION

COMPETITIVE POSITIONING

  • Summary 4 British American Tobacco (New Zealand) Ltd: Competitive Position 2009

Imperial Tobacco New Zealand Ltd - Tobacco - New Zealand

STRATEGIC DIRECTION

KEY FACTS

COMPANY BACKGROUND

PRODUCTION

  • Summary 6 Imperial Tobacco New Zealand Ltd: Capacity Statistics 2003-2007

COMPETITIVE POSITIONING

  • Summary 7 Imperial Tobacco New Zealand Ltd: Competitive Position 2009

Philip Morris (New Zealand) Ltd - Tobacco - New Zealand

STRATEGIC DIRECTION

KEY FACTS

COMPANY BACKGROUND

PRODUCTION

COMPETITIVE POSITIONING

  • Summary 9 Philip Morris (New Zealand) Ltd: Competitive Position 2009

Swedish Match (New Zealand) Ltd - Tobacco - New Zealand

STRATEGIC DIRECTION

KEY FACTS

COMPANY BACKGROUND

PRODUCTION

COMPETITIVE POSITIONING

  • Summary 11 Swedish Match (New Zealand) Ltd: Competitive Position 2009

Cigarettes in New Zealand - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • Cigarettes is the largest category in the tobacco industry in New Zealand. A continuous decline in the number of smokers related to ongoing educational efforts has slowed cigarettes sales. Cigarettes recorded a 5% decline in volume terms to 2.4 billion sticks in 2009. Value sales relatedly fell 3% in current terms to just over NZ$1.3 million in 2009.

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

  • Multinational companies dominate cigarettes in New Zealand. There are no domestic players.

NEW PRODUCT DEVELOPMENTS

DISTRIBUTION

PROSPECTS

  • Cigarettes in New Zealand is expected to fall in both volume and constant value over the forecast period, with the number of smokers likewise seeing a decline in the country. A volume CAGR decline of 2.3% against a constant value CAGR of -1.6% over the 2009-14 period are projected with sales shrinking to 2.2 billion sticks and NZ$1.2 billion in 2014.

SECTOR BACKGROUND

Cigarettes: Price Bands

  • Summary 12 Cigarette Price Band Definitions

Cigarettes: Menthol/standard

Cigarettes: Filter/non-filter

Cigarettes: Carbon/standard filter

Cigarettes: Filter length

Cigarettes: Slim/superslim vs regular

Cigarettes: Pack size

Cigarettes: Pack type

CATEGORY DATA

Cigars in New Zealand - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • Cigars reached 10 million sticks and NZ$60 million in 2009. The category recorded a 4% volume decline over the review period and decreased from 11 million sticks to 10 million between 2004 and 2006, and increased slightly to just over 10 million sticks in 2009 thanks to cigarillos volume growth. In contrast, cigars saw a 2% current value increase in the review period as a result of higher value sales of standard cigars.

HANDMADE VERSUS MACHINE MANUFACTURED SPLITS

  • Table 47 Sales of Cigars by Handmade vs Machine-manufactured 2005-2009

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

  • Swedish Match (New Zealand) Ltd, British American Tobacco (New Zealand) Ltd and Scandinavian Tobacco Group A/S are the three leading players in cigars, accounting for a 90% volume share in 2009.

NEW PRODUCT DEVELOPMENTS

  • Summary 13 Cigarettes - New Product Launches

DISTRIBUTION

PROSPECTS

  • Tax increases, poor economic conditions and anti-smoking legislation will continue over the forecast period. That said, cigars is likely to continue on its growth trend with sales expected to reach 11 million sticks, with 3% volume growth between 2009 and 2014. The category is expected to stay at NZ$60 million with a 1% constant value fall up to the year 2014.

CATEGORY DATA

Smokeless Tobacco in New Zealand - Category Analysis

TRENDS

  • Sales of smokeless tobacco were prohibited in New Zealand in 2009. There will be no change in this regulation over the forecast period.

Smoking Tobacco in New Zealand - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • Smoking tobacco volume sales declined over the review period, decreasing from 861 tonnes in 2004 to 831 tonnes in 2009. In contrast, the category’s current value sales increased from NZ$452 million to NZ$581 million in the review period.

The Role and Effect of Cannabis/Marijuana

DISTRIBUTION

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

  • Multinational companies dominate smoking tobacco and there are no domestic players.

NEW PRODUCT DEVELOPMENTS

PROSPECTS

  • Smoking tobacco is expected to fall 0.3% in volume CAGR terms over the forecast period to decrease from 831 tonnes in 2009 to 819 tonnes in 2014. Smoking tobacco will see positive constant value growth in the forecast period, although it will not be as strong as previously at 4%. Constant value sales will increase from NZ$581 million to NZ$603 million between 2009 and 2014. This is mostly supported by growth in RYO tobacco constant value sales, which will increase by 4% from NZ$577 million in 2009 to NZ$600 million in 2014. In contrast, pipe tobacco constant value sales are expected to decrease by 3% in the forecast period.

CATEGORY DATA

Segmentation

Segmentation

This market research report includes the following:

  • Tobacco
    • Cigarettes
      • High Tar Cigarettes
      • Mid Tar Cigarettes
      • Low Tar Cigarettes
      • Ultra Low Tar Cigarettes
    • Cigars
      • Cigars Excluding Cigarillos
        • Large Cigars
        • Standard Cigars
        • Small Cigars
      • Cigarillos
    • Smoking Tobacco
      • RYO Tobacco
      • Pipe Tobacco
    • Smokeless Tobacco
      • Chewing Tobacco
        • Asian-Style Chewing Tobacco
        • US-Style Chewing Tobacco
        • Other Chewing Tobacco
      • Snuff
        • Moist Snuff
          • US-Style Moist Snuff ('Dip')
            • Loose US-Style Moist Snuff
            • Portion US-Style Moist Snuff
          • Swedish-Style Snus
            • Loose Swedish-Style Snus
            • Portion Swedish-Style Snus
          • Asian Style Creamy Snuff
        • Dry Snuff
        • Hard Snuff
    • Cigarettes Including RYO Cigarettes
      • High Tar Cigarettes
      • Mid Tar Cigarettes
      • Low Tar Cigarettes
      • Ultra Low Tar Cigarettes
      • RYO Cigarettes

Statistics Included

Statistics Included

For each category and subcategory you will receive the following data in Excel format:

From Passport

  • Market Size
  • Market Share
  • Brand share
  • Distribution
  • Cigarettes by blend
  • Cigarettes by carbon filter/non-carbon filter
  • Cigarettes by filtered/unfiltered
  • Cigarettes by length
  • Cigarettes by pack size
  • Cigarettes by pack type
  • Cigarettes by price band
  • Cigarettes by regular/slim
  • Cigarettes by standard/menthol
  • Handmade vs Machine-manufactured Cigars
  • Illicit Trade Penetration
  • Pricing
  • Products by Ingredient
  • Products by Ingredient Actuals
  • Smoking population - number of adult smokers
  • Smoking prevalence - % of adult population
  • Taxation
  • Trade statistics - volume

Market size details:

  • Retail Volume
  • Retail Volume % growth
  • Retail Volume per capita
  • Retail Value retail selling price % growth
  • Retail Value retail selling price local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Retail Value retail selling price per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Retail Value retail selling price real (constant 2008) Prices % growth
  • Retail Value retail selling price real (constant 2008) Prices local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Retail Value retail selling price real (constant 2008) Prices per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Illicit Trade Volume
  • Illicit Trade Volume % growth
  • Illicit Trade Volume per capita
  • Retail Volume (sticks)
  • Retail Volume (sticks) % growth
  • Retail Volume (sticks) per capita
  • Retail Value retail selling price Nominal (Current) Prices % growth
  • Retail Value retail selling price Nominal (Current) Prices local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Retail Value retail selling price Nominal (Current) Prices per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY

Methodology

Methodology

Global insight and local knowledge

With 40 years’ experience of developed and emerging markets, Euromonitor International’s research method is built on a unique combination of specialist industry knowledge and in-country research expertise.

This approach is what enables us to achieve our goal of building a market consensus view of size, shape and trends across the full distribution universe of each category. We factor in whichever channels are relevant, from large-scale grocery to direct sellers, from discount stores to local mom-and-pop outlets.

Industry specialists

Each industry we cover is managed by an Industry Manager and team of Industry Analysts who research and report on their specialist categories all year round.

Our collaborative approach to research means that these industry teams are in constant dialogue with industry players and opinion formers. The planning of our research programmes reflects latest market trends and industry events. In completing each update project, this provides invaluable input to the testing, review and finalisation of our data.

The specialist in-house teams bring together findings from all stages of the annual research process. They work closely with in-country analysts, assess and challenge data and exercise final editorial control over the publication of new data and analysis.

Country and regional analysts

Our in-country analyst network is managed by country and regional analysts in our offices around the world. Working closely with each in-country team, the regional research management team ensures that all country researchers are well schooled in best practices, from the information collected in store checks, to the dialogue we build in trade surveys. Our country analysts ensure that national reports explain the data trends and provide clear insights into the local market’s dynamics.

In-country research network

To deliver fresh insights every year in countries all around the world, we believe the strongest approach is to use analysts on the ground. They bring fluency in local language, physical proximity to the best sources, an ability to engage directly with local industry contacts, and an awareness of how the products and services we study are advertised, sold and consumed. These are essential parts of our ability to report incisively on these markets.

Research Methodology

Our research methods

Each Euromonitor International industry report is based on a core set of research techniques:

Desk research

With industry events, corporate activity, trends and new product introductions tracked year round by our industry team, desk research provides a starting point for the in-country research programme. Our in-country researchers will access the following sources:

  • National statistics offices governmental and official sources
  • National and international trade press
  • National and international trade associations
  • Industry study groups and other semi-official sources
  • Company financials and annual reports
  • Broker reports
  • Online databases
  • The financial, business and mainstream press

Accessing sources is only the first step. The ability to interpret and reconcile often conflicting information across multiple sources is a key aspect of the added value we provide.

Store checks

Store checks are an integral part of our methods for product industries. Carried out on the ground across a relevant mix of channels, the information gained provides first-hand insights into the products we are researching, specifically:

  • Place: We track products in all relevant channels, selective and mass, store and non-store
  • Product: What are innovations in products, pack sizes and formats?
  • Price: What are brand price variations across channels, how do private label’s prices compare to those of branded goods?
  • Promotion: What are marketing and merchandising trends, offers, discounts and tie-ins?

Findings are cross-referenced with brand share data analysis. The results, combined with the findings of desk research, provide a strong basis for identifying key areas of questioning to take forward into our trade survey.

Trade survey

Interaction with global players at corporate HQ and regional levels is complemented by unique local data and insights from our in-country trade surveys around the world. Through the high profile of the Euromonitor International brand, we are able to talk directly to a wide range of sources and therefore inform our analysis with the knowledge and opinions of the leading operators in the market.

Trade surveys allow us to:

  • Fill gaps in available published data per company
  • Generate a consensus view of the size, structure and strategic direction of the category
  • Access year-in-progress data where published sources are out of date
  • Evaluate the experts’ views on current trends and market developments

In building our composite industry view, we engage with a variety of personnel in key players at all points of the supply chain: materials suppliers, manufacturers, distributors, retailers and service operators. We also interview desk research sources: industry associations; study groups; and third party observers from the trade and financial press.

Our objective is to engage in conversation with trade sources in which we exchange ideas and views on the industry, sharing our work-in-progress findings on supply/demand dynamics and potential. This dialogue enhances both parties’ understanding of the local market. The scope and reach of our trade survey also serves to eliminate bias (intentional and unintentional) from any single source.

Company analysis

At a global level, our company research combines our mix of industry interaction and use of secondary sources such as annual accounts, broker reports, financial press and databases. From a data perspective, the aim is to build “top-down” estimates of major players’ total global and regional sales.

At a country level, in line with local reporting requirements, we access annual accounts, national-specific company databases and local company websites. These are all invaluable sources as we build a view of each domestic player’s size and position within very specific categories of the industry.

Forecasts

Data projections and future performance analysis are key elements of Euromonitor International’s market intelligence. Working with historic trends of 15 years or more, a key aspect of our trade survey is to engage industry insider views of the next five years. Will volumes maintain their historic trend? Will price increases or falls of recent years continue, accelerate or slow down? Will increasing demand for one product cannibalise sales of another?

Forecasts represent many of the essential conclusions we have reached about the current state of the market, how it works and how it behaves under different macro and micro conditions. Our written analysis will state the assumptions and the trade opinion behind whether our predictions are optimistic or pessimistic, so that clients can use our statistical forecasts with confidence.

Data validation

All data is subjected to an exhaustive review process, at country, regional and global levels.

The interpretation and review of sources and data inputs forms a central part of the collaboration between industry teams and country researchers. Numbers are delivered to regional and global offices with an audit trail of sources and calculations to allow for a thorough evaluation of data sense and integrity.

Upon completion of the country review phase, data is then reviewed on a comparative basis at regional and then at a global level. Comparative checks are carried out on per capita consumption and spending levels, growth rates, patterns of category and subcategory breakdowns and distribution of sales by channel. Top-down estimates are reviewed against bottom-up regional and global market and company sales totals.

Where marked differences are seen between proximate country markets or ones at similar developmental levels, supplementary research is conducted in the relevant countries to confirm and/or amend those findings. This process ensures international comparability across the database, that consistent category and subcategory definitions have been used and that all data has been correctly tested. We make sure that possible discrepancies between different published sources have been reconciled and that our interpretation of opinion and expectation from each country’s trade sources has been applied to form a coherent international pattern.

Market analysis

Another integral part of all our research programmes is that all Euromonitor International data is accompanied by clear written analysis. From a research perspective, this explains and substantiates data findings. From a client perspective, this offers unique insights into local consumption trends, routes to market, brand preferences, channel dynamics and future trends.

Our country level analysis also provides invaluable input into the ability of our central industry specialist teams to marry local insights with strategic conclusions on the direction of the market regionally and globally.

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