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Country Report

Tobacco in Nigeria

Sep 2011

Price: $1,900

About this Report

About this Report

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Overview

Discover the latest market trends and uncover sources of future market growth for the Tobacco industry in Nigeria with research from Euromonitor's team of in-country analysts.

Find hidden opportunities in the most current research data available, understand competitive threats with our detailed market analysis, and plan your corporate strategy with our expert qualitative analysis and growth projections.

If you're in the Tobacco industry in Nigeria, our research will save you time and money while empowering you to make informed, profitable decisions.

When you purchase this report, you also get the data and the content from these category reports in Nigeria for free:

The Tobacco in Nigeria market research report includes:

  • Analysis of key supply-side and demand trends
  • Detailed segmentation of international and local products
  • Historic volumes and values, company and brand market shares
  • Five year forecasts of market trends and market growth
  • Production, imports by origin, exports by destination
  • Robust and transparent market research methodology, conducted in-country

Our market research reports answer questions such as:

  • What is the market size of Tobacco in Nigeria?
  • What are the major brands in Nigeria?
  • Which sector of the tobacco products market is the largest by value sales in Nigeria?
  • Which sector of the tobacco products market has been growing the fastest, by volume and value, in Nigeria?
  • Which sector is the most heavily taxed in Nigeria?
  • Which companies dominate in the total tobacco market in Nigeria in terms of market share?
  • What is the distribution channel split for the tobacco products market in Nigeria?

Why buy this report?

  • Gain competitive intelligence about market leaders
  • Track key industry trends, opportunities and threats
  • Inform your marketing, brand, strategy and market development, sales and supply functions

This industry report originates from Passport, our Tobacco market research database.

Sample Analysis

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Market sees stronger growth in 2010

The tobacco market grew stronger in 2010 than it had done for the previous two years, driven by increased demand for cigarettes. The increase in demand was due to a decrease in illicit trade, and a mild increase in consumer consumption, primarily from an increase in the population, urbanisation and westernisation. Growth in the previous years had been affected negatively by the publicity surrounding a series of lawsuits against tobacco companies, as well as discussions about a new anti-tobacco law. Illicit trade was also a factor in the previous years in the slow growth rates, and the increased efforts and sophistication of the customs authorities to bring about a strong reduction in illicit trade. Smokers are also increasingly choosing higher priced cigarette brands, helping to drive strong growth in value sales.

Snus joins tobacco market in Nigeria

The major new development in the tobacco market in 2010 was the introduction of snus. Swedish-style portion snus was introduced by the Japan Tobacco Inc (JTI) subsidiary West African Tobacco under the Zip brand. The category is still in its very early testing stages but there is some potential for its development. Dry nasal snuff in the packaged form has been present in the market for two years now – though unpackaged, it has been in use in Nigeria for a long time.

British American Tobacco remains dominant

The Nigerian cigarette market is essentially a near-monopoly, with British American Tobacco (Nigeria) (BATN) dominating cigarettes volume sales in 2010. Having made good progress in eliminating illegal imports of cigarettes, BATN is expected to continue to build on its dominant position in the Nigerian market through aggressive promotion of its brands. Apart from BATN, the other leading players in the market are also the multinationals JTI and Imperial Tobacco Group. The major local player in the market is International Tobacco, which has a small volume share. JTI has recently begun to challenge BATN in the market, partly through improving distribution in the south eastern part of the country where its Dorchester Menthol brand has become quite popular.

Informal channels account for majority of distribution

Informal channels continue to make up the majority of sales by distribution channel, with newsagents-tobacconists/kiosks being the leading channel. The popularity of such channels is due to the easy access they afford consumers, with multiple kiosks present on most streets in the country. The sale of single cigarettes in such channels likewise contributed to their ongoing success. However, more formal channels such as supermarkets/hypermarkets and hotels/bars/restaurants are increasing sales. The trends towards supermarkets/hypermarkets is due to the increased presence of outlets such as Shoprite in the country and increased disposable income that allows consumers to buy in whole packs, as opposed to singles. Bars also frequently sell cigarettes either in whole packs or in singles. The passage of the National Tobacco Control Bill (NTCB) in 2011 is likely to further change the landscape, given that it outlaws the sale of cigarettes in single sticks.

New legislation expected to have a negative impact over the forecast period

With the upcoming ratification by the Presidency of the 2009 NTCB in March 2011, and its implementation, cigarette sales are likely to be negatively impacted. The bill recommends an increase in taxation, alongside other stringent measures to reduce tobacco consumption. On the other hand, illicit trade should continue to decrease, and with increased urbanisation and westernisation, as well as an increasing population, cigarette demand should continue to be stable, though at a slower rate than it was over the review period. High tar cigarettes were phased out in 2011 in advance of the requirement by the 2009 NTCB and so would not be available over the forecast period. Smokeless tobacco should continue to see strong growth, following the introduction of snus into the market in 2010.

Table of Contents

Table of Contents

Tobacco in Nigeria - Industry Overview

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Market sees stronger growth in 2010

Snus joins tobacco market in Nigeria

British American Tobacco remains dominant

Informal channels account for majority of distribution

New legislation expected to have a negative impact over the forecast period

OPERATING ENVIRONMENT

Legislative overview/FCTC ratification

  • Summary 1 Legislation Summary at a Glance

Legislation: Nigerian Law

Smoking Prevalence

  • Table 1 Smoking Prevalence in Adult Population 2005-2010
  • Table 2 Number of Smokers by Gender 2005-2010

Tar levels

Health warnings

Advertising & Sponsorship

Point-of-sale Display Bans

Smoking in public places

Low Ignition Propensity (LIP) regulation

Electronic cigarettes

Litigation

Death by Cause

  • Table 3 Death by Cause 2005-2010

TAXATION AND PRICING

Duty paid packet marks

Taxation rates

  • Table 4 Taxation and Duty Levies 2005-2010

Average cigarette pack price breakdown

  • Table 5 Average Cigarette Pack Price Breakdown: Brand Examples

PRODUCTION/IMPORTS/EXPORTS

  • Table 6 Production/Imports/Exports 2005-2010

Illicit trade in cigarettes

MARKET INDICATORS

  • Table 7 Illicit Trade Estimate of Cigarettes by Volume 2005-2010

MARKET DATA

  • Table 8 Sales of Tobacco by Category: Volume 2005-2010
  • Table 9 Sales of Tobacco by Category: Value 2005-2010
  • Table 10 Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 11 Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 12 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: Volume 2010-2015
  • Table 13 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: Value 2010-2015
  • Table 14 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2010-2015
  • Table 15 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2010-2015

DEFINITIONS

  • Summary 2 Research Sources

Tobacco in Nigeria - Company Profiles

British American Tobacco (Nigeria) Ltd in Tobacco (Nigeria)

STRATEGIC DIRECTION

KEY FACTS

COMPANY BACKGROUND

PRODUCTION

COMPETITIVE POSITIONING

  • Summary 4 British American Tobacco (Nigeria) Ltd: Competitive Position 2010

Cigarettes in Nigeria - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • Volume sales of cigarettes increased at a stable rate of 2% in 2010, driven by a decrease in illicit trade and a mild increase in consumer consumption supported by increase in the population and increased urbanisation and westernisation. The recovery of the economy in 2010 compared to the previous two years was also a contributing factor. The growth in 2010 was better than the previous three years where it was a weak 1%, due to negative impact of the discussions about implementing a tobacco ban and a series of lawsuits against tobacco companies which served as negative publicity for tobacco. Illicit trade was also a factor in the previous slow growth rates, and the increased efforts and sophistication of the customs authorities have helped to bring about a strong reduction in illicit trade.

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

  • The Nigerian cigarette market is essentially a near-monopoly, with British American Tobacco (Nigeria) (BATN) dominating cigarettes with a 78% share of volume sales in 2010. The company has dominated the local Nigerian market since 2003, when it built its new factory and took control of over 70% of cigarettes in the country. Having made good progress in eliminating illegal imports of cigarettes, BATN is expected to continue to build on its dominant position in the Nigerian market through the aggressive promotion of its brands.

NEW PRODUCT DEVELOPMENTS

  • Summary 5 Cigarettes - New Product Launches

DISTRIBUTION

PROSPECTS

  • With the upcoming ratification by the Presidency of the NTCB 2009, and its implementation, cigarette sales are likely to be negatively impacted, although not to a large extent. The bill recommends an increase in taxation, alongside other stringent measures to reduce tobacco consumption. On the other hand, illicit trade should continue to decrease, and with increased urbanisation and westernisation, and an increasing population, cigarette demand should continue to be stable. Volume sales are expected to increase at a CAGR of 1% over the forecast period. This would be slower than the 2% volume CAGR seen over the review period, due largely to the negative impact of legislation.

SECTOR BACKGROUND

Cigarettes: Price Bands

  • Summary 6 Cigarette Price Band Definitions

Cigarettes: Menthol/standard

Cigarettes: Filter/non-filter

Cigarettes: Carbon/standard filter

Cigarettes: Filter length

Cigarettes: Slims/superslims vs regular

Cigarettes: Pack size

Cigarettes: Pack type

CATEGORY DATA

  • Table 16 Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: Volume 2005-2010
  • Table 17 Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: Value 2005-2010
  • Table 18 Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: % Volume Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 19 Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: % Value Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 20 Sales of Cigarettes by Price Band: % Volume Breakdown 2005-2010
  • Table 21 Sales of Cigarettes by Standard/Menthol: % Volume Breakdown 2005-2010
  • Table 22 Sales of Cigarettes by Tobacco Type: % Volume Breakdown 2005-2010
  • Table 23 Sales of Cigarettes by Filter Vs Non-filter: % Volume Breakdown 2005-2010
  • Table 24 Sales of Filter Cigarettes by Carbon Vs Non-carbon: % Volume Breakdown 2005-2010
  • Table 25 Sales of Cigarettes by Length: % Volume Breakdown 2005-2010
  • Table 26 Sales of Cigarettes by Regular/Slim: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2010
  • Table 27 Sales of Cigarettes by Pack Size: % Volume Breakdown 2005-2010
  • Table 28 Sales of Cigarettes by Pack Type: % Volume Breakdown 2005-2010
  • Table 29 Cigarettes Company Shares 2006-2010
  • Table 30 Cigarettes Brand Shares 2007-2010
  • Table 31 Sales of Cigarettes by Distribution Format: % Analysis 2005-2010
  • Table 32 Cigarettes: Production, Imports and Exports: Total Volume 2005-2010
  • Table 33 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: Volume 2010-2015
  • Table 34 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: Value 2010-2015
  • Table 35 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: % Volume Growth 2010-2015
  • Table 36 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: % Value Growth 2010-2015
  • Table 37 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Price Band: % Volume Breakdown 2010-2015
  • Table 38 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Standard/Menthol: % Volume Breakdown 2010-2015
  • Table 39 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tobacco Type: % Volume Breakdown 2010-2015
  • Table 40 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Filter Vs Non-filter: % Volume Breakdown 2010-2015
  • Table 41 Forecast Sales of Filter Cigarettes by Carbon Vs Non-carbon: % Volume Breakdown 2010-2015
  • Table 42 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Length: % Volume Breakdown 2010-2015
  • Table 43 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Regular/Slim: % Volume Breakdown 2010-2015
  • Table 44 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Pack Size: % Volume Breakdown 2010-2015
  • Table 45 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Pack Type: % Volume Breakdown 2010-2015

Cigars in Nigeria - Category Analysis

TRENDS

  • Cigars are an expensive option, and tend to only be smoked by expatriates and high-income consumers. Sales of cigars are thus negligible in Nigeria. Although the practice is developing in some limited circles of upper income smokers and expatriates, it is very unlikely that the product develops into a mass market good in the coming years.

Smokeless Tobacco in Nigeria - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • The major development in smoking tobacco in 2010 was the introduction of the new category of snus. Swedish-style portion snus was introduced by a JTI subsidiary called West African Tobacco using a brand called Zip. Its sales in 2010 were estimated at 12 tonnes with a value of NGN0.1 billion. The category is still in its very early testing stages but the company sees good potential for its development.

DISTRIBUTION

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

  • There are only two players in the Nigerian market: Joseph & Henry Wilson and the new entrant, West African Tobacco.

NEW PRODUCT DEVELOPMENTS

  • Summary 7 Smokeless Tobacco - New Product Launches

PROSPECTS

  • Over the forecast period, smokeless tobacco should see volume CAGR of 12%, driven by moist snuff, which is expected to see a volume CAGR of 13% compared to a 12% CAGR for dry snuff. Growth is coming from a very low base, and so it should be fairly strong as it is introduced to new consumers.

CATEGORY DATA

  • Table 46 Sales of Smokeless Tobacco by Category: Volume 2005-2010
  • Table 47 Sales of Smokeless Tobacco by Category: Value 2005-2010
  • Table 48 Sales of Smokeless Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2008-2010
  • Table 49 Sales of Smokeless Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2008-2010
  • Table 50 Company Shares of Smokeless Tobacco 2006-2010
  • Table 51 Brand Shares of Smokeless Tobacco 2007-2010
  • Table 52 Sales of Smokless Tobacco by Distribution Format: % Analysis 2005-2010
  • Table 53 Forecast Sales of Smokeless Tobacco by Category: Volume 2010-2015
  • Table 54 Forecast Sales of Smokeless Tobacco by Category: Value 2010-2015
  • Table 55 Forecast Sales of Smokeless Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2010-2015
  • Table 56 Forecast Sales of Smokeless Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2010-2015

Smoking Tobacco in Nigeria - Category Analysis

TRENDS

  • Smoking tobacco is not popular, although some people smoke unbranded tobacco leaves, especially those living in rural areas. The packaged version of the product is not sold in the market as there is no culture for RYO cigarettes or water pipe smoking in Nigeria.

Segmentation

Segmentation

This market research report includes the following:

  • Tobacco
    • Cigarettes
      • High Tar Cigarettes
      • Mid Tar Cigarettes
      • Low Tar Cigarettes
      • Ultra Low Tar Cigarettes
    • Cigars
      • Cigars Excluding Cigarillos
        • Large Cigars
        • Standard Cigars
        • Small Cigars
      • Cigarillos
    • Smoking Tobacco
      • RYO Tobacco
      • Pipe Tobacco
    • Smokeless Tobacco
      • Chewing Tobacco
        • Asian-Style Chewing Tobacco
        • US-Style Chewing Tobacco
        • Other Chewing Tobacco
      • Snuff
        • Moist Snuff
          • US-Style Moist Snuff ('Dip')
            • Loose US-Style Moist Snuff
            • Portion US-Style Moist Snuff
          • Swedish-Style Snus
            • Loose Swedish-Style Snus
            • Portion Swedish-Style Snus
          • Asian Style Creamy Snuff
        • Dry Snuff
        • Hard Snuff
    • Cigarettes Including RYO Stick Equivalent
      • High Tar Cigarettes
      • Mid Tar Cigarettes
      • Low Tar Cigarettes
      • Ultra Low Tar Cigarettes
      • RYO Cigarettes

Statistics Included

Statistics Included

For each category and subcategory you will receive the following data in Excel format:

From Passport

  • Market sizes
  • Company shares
  • Brand shares
  • Distribution
  • Analysis by type
  • Cigarettes by blend
  • Cigarettes by carbon filter/non-carbon filter
  • Cigarettes by filtered/unfiltered
  • Cigarettes by length
  • Cigarettes by pack size
  • Cigarettes by pack type
  • Cigarettes by price band
  • Cigarettes by regular/slim
  • Cigarettes by standard/menthol
  • Illicit trade penetration
  • Pricing
  • Products by ingredient
  • Products by ingredient
  • Smoking population - number of adult smokers
  • Smoking prevalence - % of adult population
  • Taxation
  • Trade statistics - volume

Market size details:

  • Retail volume
  • Retail volume % growth
  • Retail volume per capita
  • Retail value retail selling price % growth
  • Retail value retail selling price local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Retail value retail selling price per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Retail value retail selling price real (constant 2008) prices % growth
  • Retail value retail selling price real (constant 2008) prices local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Retail value retail selling price real (constant 2008) prices per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Illicit trade volume
  • Illicit trade volume % growth
  • Illicit trade volume per capita
  • Retail volume (sticks)
  • Retail volume (sticks) % growth
  • Retail volume (sticks) per capita
  • Retail value retail selling price nominal (current) prices % growth
  • Retail value retail selling price nominal (current) prices local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Retail value retail selling price nominal (current) prices per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Retail plus illicit trade
  • Retail plus illicit trade % growth
  • Retail plus illicit trade per capita

Methodology

Methodology

Global insight and local knowledge

With 40 years’ experience of developed and emerging markets, Euromonitor International’s research method is built on a unique combination of specialist industry knowledge and in-country research expertise.

This approach is what enables us to achieve our goal of building a market consensus view of size, shape and trends across the full distribution universe of each category. We factor in whichever channels are relevant, from large-scale grocery to direct sellers, from discount stores to local mom-and-pop outlets.

Industry specialists

Each industry we cover is managed by an Industry Manager and team of Industry Analysts who research and report on their specialist categories all year round.

Our collaborative approach to research means that these industry teams are in constant dialogue with industry players and opinion formers. The planning of our research programmes reflects latest market trends and industry events. In completing each update project, this provides invaluable input to the testing, review and finalisation of our data.

The specialist in-house teams bring together findings from all stages of the annual research process. They work closely with in-country analysts, assess and challenge data and exercise final editorial control over the publication of new data and analysis.

Country and regional analysts

Our in-country analyst network is managed by country and regional analysts in our offices around the world. Working closely with each in-country team, the regional research management team ensures that all country researchers are well schooled in best practices, from the information collected in store checks, to the dialogue we build in trade surveys. Our country analysts ensure that national reports explain the data trends and provide clear insights into the local market’s dynamics.

In-country research network

To deliver fresh insights every year in countries all around the world, we believe the strongest approach is to use analysts on the ground. They bring fluency in local language, physical proximity to the best sources, an ability to engage directly with local industry contacts, and an awareness of how the products and services we study are advertised, sold and consumed. These are essential parts of our ability to report incisively on these markets.

Research Methodology

Our research methods

Each Euromonitor International industry report is based on a core set of research techniques:

Desk research

With industry events, corporate activity, trends and new product introductions tracked year round by our industry team, desk research provides a starting point for the in-country research programme. Our in-country researchers will access the following sources:

  • National statistics offices governmental and official sources
  • National and international trade press
  • National and international trade associations
  • Industry study groups and other semi-official sources
  • Company financials and annual reports
  • Broker reports
  • Online databases
  • The financial, business and mainstream press

Accessing sources is only the first step. The ability to interpret and reconcile often conflicting information across multiple sources is a key aspect of the added value we provide.

Store checks

Store checks are an integral part of our methods for product industries. Carried out on the ground across a relevant mix of channels, the information gained provides first-hand insights into the products we are researching, specifically:

  • Place: We track products in all relevant channels, selective and mass, store and non-store
  • Product: What are innovations in products, pack sizes and formats?
  • Price: What are brand price variations across channels, how do private label’s prices compare to those of branded goods?
  • Promotion: What are marketing and merchandising trends, offers, discounts and tie-ins?

Findings are cross-referenced with brand share data analysis. The results, combined with the findings of desk research, provide a strong basis for identifying key areas of questioning to take forward into our trade survey.

Trade survey

Interaction with global players at corporate HQ and regional levels is complemented by unique local data and insights from our in-country trade surveys around the world. Through the high profile of the Euromonitor International brand, we are able to talk directly to a wide range of sources and therefore inform our analysis with the knowledge and opinions of the leading operators in the market.

Trade surveys allow us to:

  • Fill gaps in available published data per company
  • Generate a consensus view of the size, structure and strategic direction of the category
  • Access year-in-progress data where published sources are out of date
  • Evaluate the experts’ views on current trends and market developments

In building our composite industry view, we engage with a variety of personnel in key players at all points of the supply chain: materials suppliers, manufacturers, distributors, retailers and service operators. We also interview desk research sources: industry associations; study groups; and third party observers from the trade and financial press.

Our objective is to engage in conversation with trade sources in which we exchange ideas and views on the industry, sharing our work-in-progress findings on supply/demand dynamics and potential. This dialogue enhances both parties’ understanding of the local market. The scope and reach of our trade survey also serves to eliminate bias (intentional and unintentional) from any single source.

Company analysis

At a global level, our company research combines our mix of industry interaction and use of secondary sources such as annual accounts, broker reports, financial press and databases. From a data perspective, the aim is to build “top-down” estimates of major players’ total global and regional sales.

At a country level, in line with local reporting requirements, we access annual accounts, national-specific company databases and local company websites. These are all invaluable sources as we build a view of each domestic player’s size and position within very specific categories of the industry.

Forecasts

Data projections and future performance analysis are key elements of Euromonitor International’s market intelligence. Working with historic trends of 15 years or more, a key aspect of our trade survey is to engage industry insider views of the next five years. Will volumes maintain their historic trend? Will price increases or falls of recent years continue, accelerate or slow down? Will increasing demand for one product cannibalise sales of another?

Forecasts represent many of the essential conclusions we have reached about the current state of the market, how it works and how it behaves under different macro and micro conditions. Our written analysis will state the assumptions and the trade opinion behind whether our predictions are optimistic or pessimistic, so that clients can use our statistical forecasts with confidence.

Data validation

All data is subjected to an exhaustive review process, at country, regional and global levels.

The interpretation and review of sources and data inputs forms a central part of the collaboration between industry teams and country researchers. Numbers are delivered to regional and global offices with an audit trail of sources and calculations to allow for a thorough evaluation of data sense and integrity.

Upon completion of the country review phase, data is then reviewed on a comparative basis at regional and then at a global level. Comparative checks are carried out on per capita consumption and spending levels, growth rates, patterns of category and subcategory breakdowns and distribution of sales by channel. Top-down estimates are reviewed against bottom-up regional and global market and company sales totals.

Where marked differences are seen between proximate country markets or ones at similar developmental levels, supplementary research is conducted in the relevant countries to confirm and/or amend those findings. This process ensures international comparability across the database, that consistent category and subcategory definitions have been used and that all data has been correctly tested. We make sure that possible discrepancies between different published sources have been reconciled and that our interpretation of opinion and expectation from each country’s trade sources has been applied to form a coherent international pattern.

Market analysis

Another integral part of all our research programmes is that all Euromonitor International data is accompanied by clear written analysis. From a research perspective, this explains and substantiates data findings. From a client perspective, this offers unique insights into local consumption trends, routes to market, brand preferences, channel dynamics and future trends.

Our country level analysis also provides invaluable input into the ability of our central industry specialist teams to marry local insights with strategic conclusions on the direction of the market regionally and globally.

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