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Country Report

Tobacco in Nigeria

Nov 2012

Price: US$1,900

About this Report

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Delay in signing anti-tobacco bill indicates its low priority status

The passing of the National Tobacco Control Bill 2009 by the Senate in March 2011 was thought to herald the start of a change in government attitude towards tobacco control. It recommends the banning of smoking in public places, establishing a minimum legal smoking age and restricting advertising, as well as more significantly banning the sale of single cigarette sticks. The fact that it took two years for the Senate to vote on it was the first indication that it is not a priority, and now ratification of the law has been delayed. However, it is not expected that the bill will significantly impact smoking habits in Nigeria given the lax implementation of such laws in the country historically.

Tobacco market continues to see steady growth

In 2011, the tobacco market registered the strongest value growth of the review period. Although in volume terms the growth of cigarettes (the dominant category) remained stable, albeit slowing slightly on 2010, value growth was driven by the fact that cigarette smokers are smoking fewer economy-priced cigarettes and more mid-to-premium priced brands. An increase in the population as well as growing urbanisation and westernisation continued to contribute to the slow rise in smoking prevalence. Smokeless tobacco also saw strong growth in 2011, although Swedish-style snus performed poorly, just a year after having been launched in the Nigerian market.

British American Tobacco remains dominant

The Nigerian cigarette industry is essentially a near-monopoly, with British American Tobacco (Nigeria) Ltd (BATN) dominating cigarette volume sales in 2011 through its ownership of the top three brands – Benson & Hedges, Rothmans and the fast growing London. However, its share fell slightly in 2011, whilst that of Japan Tobacco Inc rose thanks to a good performance from its relatively low-priced Dorchester and Aspen cigarette brands. Apart from these major international players, the only major local player in the market, International Tobacco, is suffering from their presence and seeing its share decline.

Newsagents-tobacconists/kiosks the leading distribution channel

The popularity of this channel is due to its easy access, with such kiosks present on most streets in the country. The sale of single cigarettes in such outlets likewise contributes to their ongoing success. However, more formal channels such as supermarkets/hypermarkets and hotels/bars/restaurants are gaining sales. The trends towards supermarkets/hypermarkets is due to the increased presence of outlets such as Shoprite in the country and increased disposable income that allows consumers to buy whole packs of cigarettes as opposed to single sticks. Bars also frequently sell cigarettes either in whole packs or single sticks. The signing into law of the National Tobacco Control Bill (NTCB), if and when it happens, is likely to further change the landscape given that it proposes outlawing the sale of cigarettes in single sticks.

Slow but steady volume growth over the forecast period

Over the forecast period cigarette volume growth is expected to be a little slower than that seen over the review period. Despite the growing population, especially in urban areas, the rising number of women in the workplace and increased westernisation, there is also likely to be growing health consciousness. If the National Tobacco Control Bill (NTCB) 2009 is ratified, increased health awareness will be driven by graphic health warnings on cigarette packs, whilst a restriction on sales of single sticks will likely reduce the ability of many Nigerians to buy cigarettes. Furthermore, an increase in taxation, as recommended by the bill, would also negatively impact consumption.


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Overview

Discover the latest market trends and uncover sources of future market growth for the Tobacco industry in Nigeria with research from Euromonitor's team of in-country analysts.

Find hidden opportunities in the most current research data available, understand competitive threats with our detailed market analysis, and plan your corporate strategy with our expert qualitative analysis and growth projections.

If you're in the Tobacco industry in Nigeria, our research will save you time and money while empowering you to make informed, profitable decisions.

When you purchase this report, you also get the data and the content from these category reports in Nigeria for free:

The Tobacco in Nigeria market research report includes:

  • Analysis of key supply-side and demand trends
  • Detailed segmentation of international and local products
  • Historic volumes and values, company and brand market shares
  • Five year forecasts of market trends and market growth
  • Production, imports by origin, exports by destination
  • Robust and transparent market research methodology, conducted in-country

Our market research reports answer questions such as:

  • What is the market size of Tobacco in Nigeria?
  • What are the major brands in Nigeria?
  • Which sector of the tobacco products market is the largest by value sales in Nigeria?
  • Which sector of the tobacco products market has been growing the fastest, by volume and value, in Nigeria?
  • Which sector is the most heavily taxed in Nigeria?
  • Which companies dominate in the total tobacco market in Nigeria in terms of market share?
  • What is the distribution channel split for the tobacco products market in Nigeria?

Why buy this report?

  • Gain competitive intelligence about market leaders
  • Track key industry trends, opportunities and threats
  • Inform your marketing, brand, strategy and market development, sales and supply functions

This industry report originates from Passport, our Tobacco market research database.

Table of Contents

Table of Contents

Tobacco in Nigeria - Industry Overview

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Delay in signing anti-tobacco bill indicates its low priority status

Tobacco market continues to see steady growth

British American Tobacco remains dominant

Newsagents-tobacconists/kiosks the leading distribution channel

Slow but steady volume growth over the forecast period

OPERATING ENVIRONMENT

Legislation

  • Summary 1 Legislation Summary at a Glance

Legislation: Nigerian Law

Smoking prevalence

  • Table 1 Smoking Prevalence in Adult Population 2006-2011
  • Table 2 Number of Smokers by Gender 2006-2011

Tar levels

Health warnings

Advertising & sponsorship

Point-of-sale display bans

Smoking in public places

Low ignition propensity (LIP) regulation

‘Reduced harm’

Electronic cigarettes

Litigation

Death by cause

  • Table 3 Death by Cause 2007-2011

TAXATION AND PRICING

Duty paid packet marks

Taxation rates

  • Table 4 Taxation and Duty Levies 2006-2011

Average cigarette pack price breakdown

  • Table 5 Average Cigarette Pack Price Breakdown: Brand Examples

PRODUCTION/IMPORTS/EXPORTS

Illicit trade in cigarettes

MARKET INDICATORS

  • Table 6 Illicit Trade Estimate of Cigarettes by Volume 2006-2011

MARKET DATA

  • Table 7 Sales of Tobacco by Category: Volume 2006-2011
  • Table 8 Sales of Tobacco by Category: Value 2006-2011
  • Table 9 Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 10 Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 11 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: Volume 2011-2016
  • Table 12 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: Value 2011-2016
  • Table 13 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2011-2016
  • Table 14 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2011-2016

SOURCES

  • Summary 2 Research Sources

Tobacco in Nigeria - Company Profiles

British American Tobacco (Nigeria) Ltd in Tobacco (Nigeria)

STRATEGIC DIRECTION

KEY FACTS

COMPANY BACKGROUND

PRODUCTION

COMPETITIVE POSITIONING

  • Summary 4 British American Tobacco (Nigeria) Ltd: Competitive Position 2011

Cigarettes in Nigeria - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • In 2011, the legislative status remained the same due to the continued slow progress of the National Tobacco Control Bill 2009 (NTCB 2009). This bill took two years to be passed by the Senate, and another year has passed without the President signing it into law. These delays indicate that cigarette growth is likely to be positive for years to come. This is the most far reaching anti-tobacco law the country has seen and is likely to have some impact on cigarette sales, particularly as it restricts the sale of cigarettes in single sticks, which is a common practice in Nigeria as most smokers cannot afford to buy full packs. The bill’s proposed ban on smoking in public places will also have an adverse impact on smokers, although given the warm weather conditions it is likely that smokers would adjust after a while.

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

  • The Nigerian cigarette industry is essentially a near-monopoly, with British American Tobacco (Nigeria) Ltd (BATN) dominating with a 78% share of volume sales in 2011. The company has dominated the Nigerian market since 2003 when it built its new factory and took control of over 70% of cigarettes in the country. Having made good progress in eliminating illegal imports of cigarettes, BATN is expected to continue to build on its dominant position in the Nigerian market through the aggressive promotion of its brands. However, BATN’s share is falling as Japan Tobacco Inc gains ground.

NEW PRODUCT DEVELOPMENTS

  • Summary 5 Cigarettes - New Product Launches

DISTRIBUTION

PROSPECTS

  • Over the forecast period the category’s growth is expected to slow slightly to a volume CAGR of just above 1%. Despite the growing population, especially in urban areas, the growth of women in the workforce and increased westernisation, there is also likely to be an increase in consumer health consciousness. If the NTCB 2009 is ratified, the country would likely witness increased health awareness due to graphic warnings on cigarette packs, whilst a ban on the sale of single sticks would likely reduce the ability of many Nigerians to buy cigarettes. Furthermore, an increase in taxation, as recommended by the bill, would negatively impact consumption. However, with increased urbanisation and westernisation and an increasing population, cigarette demand should continue to be stable.

CATEGORY BACKGROUND

Cigarettes: Price bands

  • Summary 6 Cigarette Price Band Definitions

Cigarettes: Menthol/standard

Flavour threads and capsule filters:

Cigarettes: Filter/non-filter

Cigarettes: Carbon/standard filter

Cigarettes: Filter length

Cigarettes: Regular vs slims vs superslims

Cigarettes: Pack size

Cigarettes: Pack type

CATEGORY DATA

  • Table 15 Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: Volume 2006-2011
  • Table 16 Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: Value 2006-2011
  • Table 17 Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: % Volume Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 18 Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: % Value Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 19 Sales of Cigarettes by Price Band: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 20 Sales of Cigarettes by Standard/Menthol: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 21 Sales of Cigarettes by Tobacco Type: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 22 Sales of Cigarettes by Filter Vs Non-filter: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 23 Sales of Filter Cigarettes by Carbon Vs Non-carbon: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 24 Sales of Cigarettes by Length: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 25 Sales of Cigarettes by Regular/Slim/Superslim: % Volume Breakdown 2007-2011
  • Table 26 Sales of Cigarettes by Pack Size: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 27 Sales of Cigarettes by Pack Type: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 28 Cigarettes Company Shares 2007-2011
  • Table 29 Cigarettes Brand Shares 2008-2011
  • Table 30 Sales of Cigarettes by Distribution Format: % Analysis 2006-2011
  • Table 31 Cigarettes: Production, Imports and Exports: Total Volume 2006-2011
  • Table 32 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: Volume 2011-2016
  • Table 33 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: Value 2011-2016
  • Table 34 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: % Volume Growth 2011-2016
  • Table 35 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: % Value Growth 2011-2016
  • Table 36 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Price Band: % Volume Breakdown 2011-2016
  • Table 37 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Standard/Menthol: % Volume Breakdown 2011-2016
  • Table 38 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tobacco Type: % Volume Breakdown 2011-2016
  • Table 39 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Filter Vs Non-filter: % Volume Breakdown 2011-2016
  • Table 40 Forecast Sales of Filter Cigarettes by Carbon Vs Non-carbon: % Volume Breakdown 2011-2016
  • Table 41 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Length: % Volume Breakdown 2011-2016
  • Table 42 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Regular/Slim/Superslim: % Volume Breakdown 2011-2016
  • Table 43 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Pack Size: % Volume Breakdown 2011-2016
  • Table 44 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Pack Type: % Volume Breakdown 2011-2016

Cigars in Nigeria - Category Analysis

TRENDS

  • Cigars currently have no presence in the Nigerian market.

Smokeless Tobacco in Nigeria - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • The use of (unpackaged and unbranded) nasal snuff is believed to have been quite prevalent among elderly people in rural areas even before the advent of colonialism (as fictionalised in Chinua Achebe’s Things Fall Apart). However, its usage has fallen quite significantly thanks to ongoing urbanisation.

DISTRIBUTION

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

  • There are only two players present in smokeless tobacco in Nigeria - Joseph & Henry Wilson Ltd, which markets dry snuff, and West African Tobacco Co Ltd (WAT), which markets both dry snuff and Swedish-style snus. WAT led the category in 2011 with a 64% volume share thanks to its presence in both categories, whilst Joseph & Henry Wilson led dry snuff but ranked second in smokeless tobacco overall with a 36% volume share.

NEW PRODUCT DEVELOPMENTS

PROSPECTS

  • Over the forecast period smokeless tobacco is expected to post a volume CAGR of only 1%, which will be significantly weaker than the review period average of around 30%, admittedly due to having only just been launched in 2008. In 2012, the category is forecast a decline of 9% as Swedish-style snus is set to suffer a significant fall in demand due to much lower patronage following the end of test marketing, declining by 40%. Thereafter, the wider category should stabilise and see year-on-year volume growth of around 3%.

CATEGORY DATA

  • Table 45 Sales of Smokeless Tobacco by Category: Volume 2006-2011
  • Table 46 Sales of Smokeless Tobacco by Category: Value 2006-2011
  • Table 47 Sales of Smokeless Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2008-2011
  • Table 48 Sales of Smokeless Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2008-2011
  • Table 49 Company Shares of Smokeless Tobacco 2007-2011
  • Table 50 Brand Shares of Smokeless Tobacco 2008-2011
  • Table 51 Sales of Smokless Tobacco by Distribution Format: % Analysis 2006-2011
  • Table 52 Forecast Sales of Smokeless Tobacco by Category: Volume 2011-2016
  • Table 53 Forecast Sales of Smokeless Tobacco by Category: Value 2011-2016
  • Table 54 Forecast Sales of Smokeless Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2011-2016
  • Table 55 Forecast Sales of Smokeless Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2011-2016

Smoking Tobacco in Nigeria - Category Analysis

TRENDS

  • Smoking tobacco currently has no presence in the Nigerian market.

Segmentation

Segmentation

This market research report includes the following:

  • Tobacco
    • Cigarettes
      • High Tar Cigarettes
      • Mid Tar Cigarettes
      • Low Tar Cigarettes
      • Ultra Low Tar Cigarettes
    • Cigars
      • Cigars Excluding Cigarillos
        • Large Cigars
        • Standard Cigars
        • Small Cigars
      • Cigarillos
    • Smoking Tobacco
      • RYO Tobacco
      • Pipe Tobacco
    • Smokeless Tobacco
      • Chewing Tobacco
        • Asian-Style Chewing Tobacco
        • US-Style Chewing Tobacco
        • Other Chewing Tobacco
      • Snuff
        • Moist Snuff
          • US-Style Moist Snuff ('Dip')
            • Loose US-Style Moist Snuff
            • Portion US-Style Moist Snuff
          • Swedish-Style Snus
            • Loose Swedish-Style Snus
            • Portion Swedish-Style Snus
          • Asian Style Creamy Snuff
        • Dry Snuff
        • Hard Snuff
    • Cigarettes Including RYO Stick Equivalent
      • High Tar Cigarettes
      • Mid Tar Cigarettes
      • Low Tar Cigarettes
      • Ultra Low Tar Cigarettes
      • RYO Cigarettes

Statistics Included

Statistics Included

For each category and subcategory you will receive the following data in Excel format:

From Passport

  • Market sizes
  • Company shares
  • Brand shares
  • Distribution
  • Analysis by type
  • Cigarettes by blend
  • Cigarettes by carbon filter/non-carbon filter
  • Cigarettes by filtered/unfiltered
  • Cigarettes by length
  • Cigarettes by pack size
  • Cigarettes by pack type
  • Cigarettes by price band
  • Cigarettes by regular/slim/superslim
  • Cigarettes by standard/menthol
  • Illicit trade penetration
  • Pricing
  • Products by ingredient
  • Products by ingredient
  • Smoking population - number of adult smokers
  • Smoking prevalence - % of adult population
  • Taxation
  • Trade statistics - volume

Market size details:

  • Retail volume
  • Retail volume % growth
  • Retail volume per capita
  • Retail value retail selling price % growth
  • Retail value retail selling price local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Retail value retail selling price per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Illicit trade volume
  • Illicit trade volume % growth
  • Illicit trade volume per capita
  • Retail volume (sticks)
  • Retail volume (sticks) % growth
  • Retail volume (sticks) per capita
  • Retail plus illicit trade
  • Retail plus illicit trade % growth
  • Retail plus illicit trade per capita

Methodology

Methodology

Global insight and local knowledge

With 40 years’ experience of developed and emerging markets, Euromonitor International’s research method is built on a unique combination of specialist industry knowledge and in-country research expertise.

This approach is what enables us to achieve our goal of building a market consensus view of size, shape and trends across the full distribution universe of each category. We factor in whichever channels are relevant, from large-scale grocery to direct sellers, from discount stores to local mom-and-pop outlets.

Industry specialists

Each industry we cover is managed by an Industry Manager and team of Industry Analysts who research and report on their specialist categories all year round.

Our collaborative approach to research means that these industry teams are in constant dialogue with industry players and opinion formers. The planning of our research programmes reflects latest market trends and industry events. In completing each update project, this provides invaluable input to the testing, review and finalisation of our data.

The specialist in-house teams bring together findings from all stages of the annual research process. They work closely with in-country analysts, assess and challenge data and exercise final editorial control over the publication of new data and analysis.

Country and regional analysts

Our in-country analyst network is managed by country and regional analysts in our offices around the world. Working closely with each in-country team, the regional research management team ensures that all country researchers are well schooled in best practices, from the information collected in store checks, to the dialogue we build in trade surveys. Our country analysts ensure that national reports explain the data trends and provide clear insights into the local market’s dynamics.

In-country research network

To deliver fresh insights every year in countries all around the world, we believe the strongest approach is to use analysts on the ground. They bring fluency in local language, physical proximity to the best sources, an ability to engage directly with local industry contacts, and an awareness of how the products and services we study are advertised, sold and consumed. These are essential parts of our ability to report incisively on these markets.

Research Methodology

Our research methods

Each Euromonitor International industry report is based on a core set of research techniques:

Desk research

With industry events, corporate activity, trends and new product introductions tracked year round by our industry team, desk research provides a starting point for the in-country research programme. Our in-country researchers will access the following sources:

  • National statistics offices governmental and official sources
  • National and international trade press
  • National and international trade associations
  • Industry study groups and other semi-official sources
  • Company financials and annual reports
  • Broker reports
  • Online databases
  • The financial, business and mainstream press

Accessing sources is only the first step. The ability to interpret and reconcile often conflicting information across multiple sources is a key aspect of the added value we provide.

Store checks

Store checks are an integral part of our methods for product industries. Carried out on the ground across a relevant mix of channels, the information gained provides first-hand insights into the products we are researching, specifically:

  • Place: We track products in all relevant channels, selective and mass, store and non-store
  • Product: What are innovations in products, pack sizes and formats?
  • Price: What are brand price variations across channels, how do private label’s prices compare to those of branded goods?
  • Promotion: What are marketing and merchandising trends, offers, discounts and tie-ins?

Findings are cross-referenced with brand share data analysis. The results, combined with the findings of desk research, provide a strong basis for identifying key areas of questioning to take forward into our trade survey.

Trade survey

Interaction with global players at corporate HQ and regional levels is complemented by unique local data and insights from our in-country trade surveys around the world. Through the high profile of the Euromonitor International brand, we are able to talk directly to a wide range of sources and therefore inform our analysis with the knowledge and opinions of the leading operators in the market.

Trade surveys allow us to:

  • Fill gaps in available published data per company
  • Generate a consensus view of the size, structure and strategic direction of the category
  • Access year-in-progress data where published sources are out of date
  • Evaluate the experts’ views on current trends and market developments

In building our composite industry view, we engage with a variety of personnel in key players at all points of the supply chain: materials suppliers, manufacturers, distributors, retailers and service operators. We also interview desk research sources: industry associations; study groups; and third party observers from the trade and financial press.

Our objective is to engage in conversation with trade sources in which we exchange ideas and views on the industry, sharing our work-in-progress findings on supply/demand dynamics and potential. This dialogue enhances both parties’ understanding of the local market. The scope and reach of our trade survey also serves to eliminate bias (intentional and unintentional) from any single source.

Company analysis

At a global level, our company research combines our mix of industry interaction and use of secondary sources such as annual accounts, broker reports, financial press and databases. From a data perspective, the aim is to build “top-down” estimates of major players’ total global and regional sales.

At a country level, in line with local reporting requirements, we access annual accounts, national-specific company databases and local company websites. These are all invaluable sources as we build a view of each domestic player’s size and position within very specific categories of the industry.

Forecasts

Data projections and future performance analysis are key elements of Euromonitor International’s market intelligence. Working with historic trends of 15 years or more, a key aspect of our trade survey is to engage industry insider views of the next five years. Will volumes maintain their historic trend? Will price increases or falls of recent years continue, accelerate or slow down? Will increasing demand for one product cannibalise sales of another?

Forecasts represent many of the essential conclusions we have reached about the current state of the market, how it works and how it behaves under different macro and micro conditions. Our written analysis will state the assumptions and the trade opinion behind whether our predictions are optimistic or pessimistic, so that clients can use our statistical forecasts with confidence.

Data validation

All data is subjected to an exhaustive review process, at country, regional and global levels.

The interpretation and review of sources and data inputs forms a central part of the collaboration between industry teams and country researchers. Numbers are delivered to regional and global offices with an audit trail of sources and calculations to allow for a thorough evaluation of data sense and integrity.

Upon completion of the country review phase, data is then reviewed on a comparative basis at regional and then at a global level. Comparative checks are carried out on per capita consumption and spending levels, growth rates, patterns of category and subcategory breakdowns and distribution of sales by channel. Top-down estimates are reviewed against bottom-up regional and global market and company sales totals.

Where marked differences are seen between proximate country markets or ones at similar developmental levels, supplementary research is conducted in the relevant countries to confirm and/or amend those findings. This process ensures international comparability across the database, that consistent category and subcategory definitions have been used and that all data has been correctly tested. We make sure that possible discrepancies between different published sources have been reconciled and that our interpretation of opinion and expectation from each country’s trade sources has been applied to form a coherent international pattern.

Market analysis

Another integral part of all our research programmes is that all Euromonitor International data is accompanied by clear written analysis. From a research perspective, this explains and substantiates data findings. From a client perspective, this offers unique insights into local consumption trends, routes to market, brand preferences, channel dynamics and future trends.

Our country level analysis also provides invaluable input into the ability of our central industry specialist teams to marry local insights with strategic conclusions on the direction of the market regionally and globally.

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