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Country Report

Tobacco in Romania

Jun 2011

Price: US$1,900

About this Report

About this Report

Samples (FAQs about samples):

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Overview

Discover the latest market trends and uncover sources of future market growth for the Tobacco industry in Romania with research from Euromonitor's team of in-country analysts.

Find hidden opportunities in the most current research data available, understand competitive threats with our detailed market analysis, and plan your corporate strategy with our expert qualitative analysis and growth projections.

If you're in the Tobacco industry in Romania, our research will save you time and money while empowering you to make informed, profitable decisions.

When you purchase this report, you also get the data and the content from these category reports in Romania for free:

The Tobacco in Romania market research report includes:

  • Analysis of key supply-side and demand trends
  • Detailed segmentation of international and local products
  • Historic volumes and values, company and brand market shares
  • Five year forecasts of market trends and market growth
  • Production, imports by origin, exports by destination
  • Robust and transparent market research methodology, conducted in-country

Our market research reports answer questions such as:

  • What is the market size of Tobacco in Romania?
  • What are the major brands in Romania?
  • Which sector of the tobacco products market is the largest by value sales in Romania?
  • Which sector of the tobacco products market has been growing the fastest, by volume and value, in Romania?
  • Which sector is the most heavily taxed in Romania?
  • Which companies dominate in the total tobacco market in Romania in terms of market share?
  • What is the distribution channel split for the tobacco products market in Romania?

Why buy this report?

  • Gain competitive intelligence about market leaders
  • Track key industry trends, opportunities and threats
  • Inform your marketing, brand, strategy and market development, sales and supply functions

This industry report originates from Passport, our Tobacco market research database.

Sample Analysis

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

The market starts to be affected by the economic crisis and high taxes

The price of tobacco is on an upward trend in 2011, but taxes and fees were not increased during the first half of the year at least and they are not expected to be increased, since the target to align prices with the European average was met for this period. The market is expected to decline, although apparently vices die hard. The total retail value for 2010 was more than RON15.2 billion (while in 2019 the total retail value reached RON12.9 million) and maintained a slower growth rate than earlier in the review period. Although advertising was restricted and the law prevents tobacco from being sold to persons under the legal age (18-years-old), teenagers are still attracted to this habit and find little resistance in pursuing it. The images printed on cigarette packs had a lower impact than expected, and the mortality/disease rate did not seem to deter Romanian smokers. However, the combined effects of demographic changes, multiple anti-tobacco campaigns, high taxes and excise levels, and an impoverished population affected the tobacco market, which started to see a slowdown of its anticipated growth,

Taxes and fees for tobacco met the target EU level

In 2010 the price per pack of cigarettes almost doubled, due to higher taxes and fees imposed by the state. The target is to reach the taxation and the pricing level seen in the EU, in order to discourage possible illegal trade (given that Romania expects to become part of the Schengen Area, although later than the expected date of March 2011). Against the background of this price increase, illicit trade of cigarettes intensified. However, the legal market favours mid-priced cigarettes, which held the highest share of sales while the premium segment contains the best-selling brand; a situation similar to previous years. By 2011, prices were at the target level and no further raises in taxes are expected before 2014.

Multinationals dominate, leaving no room for local/regional players

Multinationals held the vast majority of retail volume sales in 2010, across all tobacco categories. Local or regional manufacturers tend to have declining shares in the market, particularly given the harsh financial conditions and the context of economic crisis. The traditional producer of the Carpati brand stopped its activity in 2009/2010 and the Snagov brand also disappeared from the market once high tar cigarettes were banned. However, regional producers, particularly from Ukraine, are trying to fill the economy niche, either through the legal market, or (mostly) through illicit trade. Operating conditions becamepretty harsh for the multinationals, which keep complaining about the lack of legal and practical measures to fight cigarette smuggling and illicit trade; a couple of them threatened to close their local factories or reduce their presence in the market. Moreover, as part of their market strategy the multinationals withdrew some economy brands, and are becoming stronger in the mid-priced and premium segments.

Independent small grocers remains the most important distribution channel for cigarettes

Since the legislation allows cigarettes and cigars to be sold in virtually any shop for the same price, independent small grocers accounted for a significant 64% share of sales in 2010, as these outlets are the most convenient for shopping. Buying cigarettes in multipacks is not advantageous economically (the prices in discounters or other retail chains are not much different, and the discounts for buying a box or more are very small), and independent small grocers are present not only in the urban environment, but also in rural areas, so access is far easier. This situation is likely to continue over the forecast period.

The market is expected to gradually slow down, as the number of smokers decreases

Anti-smoking campaigns are becoming increasingly visible, bringing to the forefront the health risks of smoking; concomitantly, the legislation regarding smoking in public places is becoming stricter, and prices of cigarettes are increasing, while advertising of cigarettes has more and more restrictions. All these factors together are expected to reduce the number of smokers in the medium and long term, although for the time being this trend is only gradually becoming evident.

Table of Contents

Table of Contents

Tobacco in Romania - Industry Overview

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

The market starts to be affected by the economic crisis and high taxes

Taxes and fees for tobacco met the target EU level

Multinationals dominate, leaving no room for local/regional players

Independent small grocers remains the most important distribution channel for cigarettes

The market is expected to gradually slow down, as the number of smokers decreases

OPERATING ENVIRONMENT

Legislative overview/ FCTC ratification

  • Summary 1 Legislation Summary at a Glance

Country-specific legislation:

Minimum legal smoking age

Smoking Prevalence

Tar levels

Health warnings

Advertising &Sponsorship

Point-of-sale Display Bans

Smoking in public places

Low Ignition Propensity (LIP) regulation

Electronic cigarettes

Litigation

Death by Cause

  • Table 1 Death by Cause 2005-2010

TAXATION AND PRICING

Duty paid packet marks

Taxation rates

  • Table 2 Taxation and Duty Levies

Average cigarette pack price breakdown

PRODUCTION/IMPORTS/EXPORTS

Illicit trade in cigarettes

MARKET INDICATORS

  • Table 4 Illicit Trade Estimate of Cigarettes by Volume 2005-2010

MARKET DATA

  • Table 5 Sales of Tobacco by Category: Volume 2005-2010
  • Table 6 Sales of Tobacco by Category: Value 2005-2010
  • Table 7 Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 8 Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 9 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: Volume 2010-2015
  • Table 10 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: Value 2010-2015
  • Table 11 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2010-2015
  • Table 12 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2010-2015

DEFINITIONS

  • Summary 2 Research Sources

Tobacco in Romania - Company Profiles

British American Tobacco Romania SRL in Tobacco (Romania)

STRATEGIC DIRECTION

KEY FACTS

COMPANY BACKGROUND

PRODUCTION

  • Summary 5 British American Tobacco Romania SRL: Production Statistics 2010

COMPETITIVE POSITIONING

  • Summary 6 British American Tobacco Romania SRL: Competitive Position 2010

JT International (Romania) SRL in Tobacco (Romania)

STRATEGIC DIRECTION

KEY FACTS

COMPANY BACKGROUND

PRODUCTION

COMPETITIVE POSITIONING

  • Summary 9 JT International (Romania) SRL: Competitive Position 2010

Philip Morris Romania SRL in Tobacco (Romania)

STRATEGIC DIRECTION

KEY FACTS

COMPANY BACKGROUND

PRODUCTION

  • Summary 12 Philip Morris Romania SRL: Production Statistics 2010

COMPETITIVE POSITIONING

  • Summary 13 Philip Morris Romania SRL: Competitive Position 2010

Cigarettes in Romania - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • Charcoal filters seem to be preferred by many of the multinationals, since consumers are becoming more interested in less harmful cigarettes. The same reasoning also explains the growth in low and ultra low tar cigarettes.

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

  • The cigarettes category in Romania is completely privatised, with multinationals accounting for almost all retail volume sales. The three leading players, British American Tobacco Romania SRL, JT International (Romania) SRL, and Philip Morris Romania SRL, accounted for 99% of retail volume sales in 2010 on the legal market.

NEW PRODUCT DEVELOPMENTS

  • Summary 14 Cigarettes - New Product Launches

DISTRIBUTION

PROSPECTS

  • Romanians are becoming increasingly aware about the health risks posed by tobacco, which (combined with rising prices and the demographic changes) is expected to lead to slower constant value growth and retail volume sales over the forecast period. Growing health concerns, which are associated with the smoking restrictions imposed by new legislation, are expected to reduce consumption in urban areas in the medium and long term, although smokers in rural areas are much less aware of the health risks of smoking or restrictions on smoking in public places.

SECTOR BACKGROUND

Cigarettes: Price Bands

  • Summary 15 Cigarette Price Band Definitions

Cigarettes: Menthol/standard

Cigarettes: Filter/non-filter

Cigarettes: Carbon/standard filter

Cigarettes: Filter length

Cigarettes: Slims/superslims vs regular

Cigarettes: Pack size

Cigarettes: Pack type

CATEGORY DATA

  • Table 13 Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: Volume 2005-2010
  • Table 14 Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: Value 2005-2010
  • Table 15 Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: % Volume Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 16 Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: % Value Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 17 Sales of Cigarettes by Price Band: % Volume Breakdown 2005-2010
  • Table 18 Sales of Cigarettes by Standard/Menthol: % Volume Breakdown 2005-2010
  • Table 19 Sales of Cigarettes by Tobacco Type: % Volume Breakdown 2005-2010
  • Table 20 Sales of Cigarettes by Filter Vs Non-filter: % Volume Breakdown 2005-2010
  • Table 21 Sales of Filter Cigarettes by Carbon Vs Non-carbon: % Volume Breakdown 2005-2010
  • Table 22 Sales of Cigarettes by Length: % Volume Breakdown 2005-2010
  • Table 23 Sales of Cigarettes by Regular/Slim: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2010
  • Table 24 Sales of Cigarettes by Pack Size: % Volume Breakdown 2005-2010
  • Table 25 Sales of Cigarettes by Pack Type: % Volume Breakdown 2005-2010
  • Table 26 Cigarettes Company Shares 2006-2010
  • Table 27 Cigarettes Brand Shares 2007-2010
  • Table 28 Sales of Cigarettes by Distribution Format: % Analysis 2005-2010
  • Table 29 Cigarettes: Production, Imports and Exports: Total Volume 2005-2010
  • Table 30 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: Volume 2010-2015
  • Table 31 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: Value 2010-2015
  • Table 32 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: % Volume Growth 2010-2015
  • Table 33 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: % Value Growth 2010-2015
  • Table 34 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Price Band: % Volume Breakdown 2010-2015
  • Table 35 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Standard/Menthol: % Volume Breakdown 2010-2015
  • Table 36 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tobacco Type: % Volume Breakdown 2010-2015
  • Table 37 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Filter Vs Non-filter: % Volume Breakdown 2010-2015
  • Table 38 Forecast Sales of Filter Cigarettes by Carbon Vs Non-carbon: % Volume Breakdown 2010-2015
  • Table 39 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Length: % Volume Breakdown 2010-2015
  • Table 40 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Regular/Slim: % Volume Breakdown 2010-2015
  • Table 41 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Pack Size: % Volume Breakdown 2010-2015
  • Table 42 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Pack Type: % Volume Breakdown 2010-2015

Cigars in Romania - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • Cigars are not a familiar sight in Romania, and they do not have a tradition in the market. They are not associated with the idea of power and masculinity, as they are in the West, but bear little load of associations in the mind of the Romanian public. They are relatively new to the market (they were not available during communist times), and until recently they were found only in tobacco specialists.

HAND-MADE VERSUS MACHINE MANUFACTURED SPLITS

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

  • Retail sales of cigars are concentrated in the hands of three main distributors, which accounted for a combined 95% share of retail volume sales in 2010 in this category. JPB Trade SRL was the dominant player with an 87% share in 2010. There is no longstanding tradition of cigar smoking in Romania, but the elimination of import taxes from EU countries and the strong appreciation of the domestic currency against the euro and US dollar in 2007 resulted in significantly cheaper imports and affordable unit prices, which stimulated demand. Over the forecast period, it is expected that cigars will continue to satisfy a niche demand amongst high income consumers. It is expected that JPB Trade will continue to dominate the category.

NEW PRODUCT DEVELOPMENTS

  • Summary 16 Cigars and Cigarillos - New Product Launches

DISTRIBUTION

PROSPECTS

  • Cigars and cigarillos has a very small share of the tobacco market, and this is expected to continue, maintaining slow growth over the forecast period for several reasons. First of all, generally cigars are niche products. Secondly, Romanian consumers do not have a full perception and a solid image of cigars and cigarillos – they are associated with high incomes, but not necessarily with certain attributes or a certain lifestyle. Thirdly, the growth in this category coincides with economic growth and higher available income per household – and Romania is still suffering the consequences of the crisis, with 2010 not guaranteed to revive the economic decline.

CATEGORY DATA

  • Table 43 Sales of Cigars by Category: Volume 2005-2010
  • Table 44 Sales of Cigars by Category: Value 2005-2010
  • Table 45 Sales of Cigars by Category: % Volume Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 46 Sales of Cigars by Category: % Value Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 47 Sales of Cigars by Handmade vs Machine Manufactured: % Volume Breakdown 2005-2010
  • Table 48 Company Shares of Cigars Excluding Cigarillos 2006-2010
  • Table 49 Brand Shares of Cigars Excluding Cigarillos 2007-2010
  • Table 50 Company Shares of Cigarillos 2006-2010
  • Table 51 Brand Shares of Cigarillos 2007-2010
  • Table 52 Sales of Cigars by Distribution Format: % Analysis 2005-2010
  • Table 53 Forecast Sales of Cigars by Category: Volume 2010-2015
  • Table 54 Forecast Sales of Cigars by Category: Value 2010-2015
  • Table 55 Forecast Sales of Cigars by Category: % Volume Growth 2010-2015
  • Table 56 Forecast Sales of Cigars by Category: % Value Growth 2010-2015

Smokeless Tobacco in Romania - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • Retail volume and value sales of smokeless tobacco remained negligible over the review period. Statistics in 2009 showed imports of 120kg of chewing tobacco and snuff with an import value of €7,000, which is insufficient to change the negligible status of smokeless tobacco. Germany accounted for all imports of smoking tobacco in 2009.

PROSPECTS

  • Smokeless tobacco is not expected to increase its presence in the Romanian market during the forecast period.

Smoking Tobacco in Romania - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • Pipe smoking is a tradition in Romania dating back to the beginning and the first half of the century, being associated with the intellectual/bohemian world and with the intelligentsia of that time. However, during communist times it became associated with a bourgeois lifestyle, and was not promoted as a desirable habit. After 1990, pipe smoking came back to the market, and there are a handful of people who are very interested in pipes and accessories. There are also some people who are trying RYO tobacco because they consider it to be healthier.

The role and effect of cannabis/marijuana

DISTRIBUTION

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

  • Like cigars, smoking tobacco has a very concentrated competitive landscape in terms of the main players. The top three players, JPB Trade SRL, Heinrig Impex SRL and Tobacco Trading International SRL accounted for a combined 74% share of retail volume sales in 2010. The leading player in cigars, JPB Trade, dominated smoking tobacco in 2010 with a 58% share of retail volume sales. All smoking tobacco products are imported, so there are no local producers, only importers/distributors.

NEW PRODUCT DEVELOPMENTS

PROSPECTS

  • Although the growth in this category is expected to be very low in value terms and higher in volume terms and it is expected to remain a niche product in the medium term, the chances of growth are mainly in the RYO tobacco category. Its growth is boosted in times of economic crisis, because of the much lower average unit price per cigarette, and, despite the fact that it does not benefit from advertising, word-of-mouth promotion gives this category a good chance of growth.

CATEGORY DATA

  • Table 57 Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: Volume 2005-2010
  • Table 58 Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: Value 2005-2010
  • Table 59 Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 60 Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 61 Company Shares of Pipe Tobacco 2006-2010
  • Table 62 Brand Shares of Pipe Tobacco 2007-2010
  • Table 63 Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Distribution Format: % Analysis 2005-2010
  • Table 64 Forecast Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: Volume 2010-2015
  • Table 65 Forecast Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: Value 2010-2015
  • Table 66 Forecast Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2010-2015
  • Table 67 Forecast Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2010-2015

Segmentation

Segmentation

This market research report includes the following:

  • Tobacco
    • Cigarettes
      • High Tar Cigarettes
      • Mid Tar Cigarettes
      • Low Tar Cigarettes
      • Ultra Low Tar Cigarettes
    • Cigars
      • Cigars Excluding Cigarillos
        • Large Cigars
        • Standard Cigars
        • Small Cigars
      • Cigarillos
    • Smoking Tobacco
      • RYO Tobacco
      • Pipe Tobacco
    • Smokeless Tobacco
      • Chewing Tobacco
        • Asian-Style Chewing Tobacco
        • US-Style Chewing Tobacco
        • Other Chewing Tobacco
      • Snuff
        • Moist Snuff
          • US-Style Moist Snuff ('Dip')
            • Loose US-Style Moist Snuff
            • Portion US-Style Moist Snuff
          • Swedish-Style Snus
            • Loose Swedish-Style Snus
            • Portion Swedish-Style Snus
          • Asian Style Creamy Snuff
        • Dry Snuff
        • Hard Snuff
    • Cigarettes Including RYO Stick Equivalent
      • High Tar Cigarettes
      • Mid Tar Cigarettes
      • Low Tar Cigarettes
      • Ultra Low Tar Cigarettes
      • RYO Cigarettes

Statistics Included

Statistics Included

For each category and subcategory you will receive the following data in Excel format:

From Passport

  • Market sizes
  • Company shares
  • Brand shares
  • Distribution
  • Analysis by type
  • Cigarettes by blend
  • Cigarettes by carbon filter/non-carbon filter
  • Cigarettes by filtered/unfiltered
  • Cigarettes by length
  • Cigarettes by pack size
  • Cigarettes by pack type
  • Cigarettes by price band
  • Cigarettes by regular/slim
  • Cigarettes by standard/menthol
  • Illicit trade penetration
  • Pricing
  • Products by ingredient
  • Products by ingredient
  • Smoking population - number of adult smokers
  • Smoking prevalence - % of adult population
  • Taxation
  • Trade statistics - volume

Market size details:

  • Retail volume
  • Retail volume % growth
  • Retail volume per capita
  • Retail value retail selling price % growth
  • Retail value retail selling price local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Retail value retail selling price per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Retail value retail selling price real (constant 2008) prices % growth
  • Retail value retail selling price real (constant 2008) prices local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Retail value retail selling price real (constant 2008) prices per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Illicit trade volume
  • Illicit trade volume % growth
  • Illicit trade volume per capita
  • Retail volume (sticks)
  • Retail volume (sticks) % growth
  • Retail volume (sticks) per capita
  • Retail value retail selling price nominal (current) prices % growth
  • Retail value retail selling price nominal (current) prices local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Retail value retail selling price nominal (current) prices per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Retail plus illicit trade
  • Retail plus illicit trade % growth
  • Retail plus illicit trade per capita

Methodology

Methodology

Global insight and local knowledge

With 40 years’ experience of developed and emerging markets, Euromonitor International’s research method is built on a unique combination of specialist industry knowledge and in-country research expertise.

This approach is what enables us to achieve our goal of building a market consensus view of size, shape and trends across the full distribution universe of each category. We factor in whichever channels are relevant, from large-scale grocery to direct sellers, from discount stores to local mom-and-pop outlets.

Industry specialists

Each industry we cover is managed by an Industry Manager and team of Industry Analysts who research and report on their specialist categories all year round.

Our collaborative approach to research means that these industry teams are in constant dialogue with industry players and opinion formers. The planning of our research programmes reflects latest market trends and industry events. In completing each update project, this provides invaluable input to the testing, review and finalisation of our data.

The specialist in-house teams bring together findings from all stages of the annual research process. They work closely with in-country analysts, assess and challenge data and exercise final editorial control over the publication of new data and analysis.

Country and regional analysts

Our in-country analyst network is managed by country and regional analysts in our offices around the world. Working closely with each in-country team, the regional research management team ensures that all country researchers are well schooled in best practices, from the information collected in store checks, to the dialogue we build in trade surveys. Our country analysts ensure that national reports explain the data trends and provide clear insights into the local market’s dynamics.

In-country research network

To deliver fresh insights every year in countries all around the world, we believe the strongest approach is to use analysts on the ground. They bring fluency in local language, physical proximity to the best sources, an ability to engage directly with local industry contacts, and an awareness of how the products and services we study are advertised, sold and consumed. These are essential parts of our ability to report incisively on these markets.

Research Methodology

Our research methods

Each Euromonitor International industry report is based on a core set of research techniques:

Desk research

With industry events, corporate activity, trends and new product introductions tracked year round by our industry team, desk research provides a starting point for the in-country research programme. Our in-country researchers will access the following sources:

  • National statistics offices governmental and official sources
  • National and international trade press
  • National and international trade associations
  • Industry study groups and other semi-official sources
  • Company financials and annual reports
  • Broker reports
  • Online databases
  • The financial, business and mainstream press

Accessing sources is only the first step. The ability to interpret and reconcile often conflicting information across multiple sources is a key aspect of the added value we provide.

Store checks

Store checks are an integral part of our methods for product industries. Carried out on the ground across a relevant mix of channels, the information gained provides first-hand insights into the products we are researching, specifically:

  • Place: We track products in all relevant channels, selective and mass, store and non-store
  • Product: What are innovations in products, pack sizes and formats?
  • Price: What are brand price variations across channels, how do private label’s prices compare to those of branded goods?
  • Promotion: What are marketing and merchandising trends, offers, discounts and tie-ins?

Findings are cross-referenced with brand share data analysis. The results, combined with the findings of desk research, provide a strong basis for identifying key areas of questioning to take forward into our trade survey.

Trade survey

Interaction with global players at corporate HQ and regional levels is complemented by unique local data and insights from our in-country trade surveys around the world. Through the high profile of the Euromonitor International brand, we are able to talk directly to a wide range of sources and therefore inform our analysis with the knowledge and opinions of the leading operators in the market.

Trade surveys allow us to:

  • Fill gaps in available published data per company
  • Generate a consensus view of the size, structure and strategic direction of the category
  • Access year-in-progress data where published sources are out of date
  • Evaluate the experts’ views on current trends and market developments

In building our composite industry view, we engage with a variety of personnel in key players at all points of the supply chain: materials suppliers, manufacturers, distributors, retailers and service operators. We also interview desk research sources: industry associations; study groups; and third party observers from the trade and financial press.

Our objective is to engage in conversation with trade sources in which we exchange ideas and views on the industry, sharing our work-in-progress findings on supply/demand dynamics and potential. This dialogue enhances both parties’ understanding of the local market. The scope and reach of our trade survey also serves to eliminate bias (intentional and unintentional) from any single source.

Company analysis

At a global level, our company research combines our mix of industry interaction and use of secondary sources such as annual accounts, broker reports, financial press and databases. From a data perspective, the aim is to build “top-down” estimates of major players’ total global and regional sales.

At a country level, in line with local reporting requirements, we access annual accounts, national-specific company databases and local company websites. These are all invaluable sources as we build a view of each domestic player’s size and position within very specific categories of the industry.

Forecasts

Data projections and future performance analysis are key elements of Euromonitor International’s market intelligence. Working with historic trends of 15 years or more, a key aspect of our trade survey is to engage industry insider views of the next five years. Will volumes maintain their historic trend? Will price increases or falls of recent years continue, accelerate or slow down? Will increasing demand for one product cannibalise sales of another?

Forecasts represent many of the essential conclusions we have reached about the current state of the market, how it works and how it behaves under different macro and micro conditions. Our written analysis will state the assumptions and the trade opinion behind whether our predictions are optimistic or pessimistic, so that clients can use our statistical forecasts with confidence.

Data validation

All data is subjected to an exhaustive review process, at country, regional and global levels.

The interpretation and review of sources and data inputs forms a central part of the collaboration between industry teams and country researchers. Numbers are delivered to regional and global offices with an audit trail of sources and calculations to allow for a thorough evaluation of data sense and integrity.

Upon completion of the country review phase, data is then reviewed on a comparative basis at regional and then at a global level. Comparative checks are carried out on per capita consumption and spending levels, growth rates, patterns of category and subcategory breakdowns and distribution of sales by channel. Top-down estimates are reviewed against bottom-up regional and global market and company sales totals.

Where marked differences are seen between proximate country markets or ones at similar developmental levels, supplementary research is conducted in the relevant countries to confirm and/or amend those findings. This process ensures international comparability across the database, that consistent category and subcategory definitions have been used and that all data has been correctly tested. We make sure that possible discrepancies between different published sources have been reconciled and that our interpretation of opinion and expectation from each country’s trade sources has been applied to form a coherent international pattern.

Market analysis

Another integral part of all our research programmes is that all Euromonitor International data is accompanied by clear written analysis. From a research perspective, this explains and substantiates data findings. From a client perspective, this offers unique insights into local consumption trends, routes to market, brand preferences, channel dynamics and future trends.

Our country level analysis also provides invaluable input into the ability of our central industry specialist teams to marry local insights with strategic conclusions on the direction of the market regionally and globally.

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